REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA · 2018-03-12 · 02 REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF...

OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016

HORN OF AFRICAREGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE

AND THE GREAT LAKES REGIONRECOMMENDATIONS FOR HUMANITARIAN ACTION AND RESILIENCE

RESPONSE

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REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA AND GREAT LAKES REGION

Cover Photo:

3 February 2016, Ula Arba kebele, Ziway Dugda Woreda, Arsi zone, Oromia region, Ethiopia.

Hussein is resident in Ziway Dugda Woreda with a population of 149,000 people. About 82,000 people (55%) require emergency food assistance. The price of livestock has gone down by 80% while the price of cereals have increased three-fold.

“This drought is the worse we are experiencing in for 30 years”, says Hussein

Credit: OCHA/ Charlotte Cans

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

I.HUMANITARIANTRENDS:JULY–SEPTEMBER2016 4

II.REGIONALOUTLOOK:OCTOBER-DECEMBER2016 6

III.VULNERABILITYHOTSPOTS 8

IV. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS 9

CLIMATE 9

SOUTH SUDAN, GREAT LAKES 9

KENYA-SOMALIA 9

II. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS AND OUTLOOK 10

DRIVERSOFHUMANITARIANNEED 10

CONFLICT TRENDS AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS 10

CLIMATE 14

ECONOMIC SHOCKS 16

III. HUMANITARIAN IMPACT 18

FORCEDDISPLACEMENTANDMIXEDMIGRATION 18

INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT 18

CROSS-BORDERDISPLACEMENT 19

CLOSUREOFDADAABCAMP 21

MIXEDMIGRATION 21

PROTECTIONOFCIVILIANS 22

FOODINSECURITYANDMALNUTRITION 24

FOODINSECURITY 24

MALNUTRITION 27

COMMUNICABLEDISEASES 28

CHOLERAANDACUTEWATERYDIARRHEA(AWD) 29

IV. CONSTRAINTS TO RESPONSE 31

HUMANITARIANACCESS 31

VIOLENCE AGAINST HUMANITARIAN PERSONNEL, ASSETS AND FACILITIES 31

BUREAUCRATICIMPEDIMENTS 33

FUNDING 34

CERF AND POOLED FUNDS 34

V. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS 36

CONTENTS

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Thisreporthasbeendevelopedcollectivelywithhumanitarianpartnersintheregiontoinformpreparednessandadvocacyefforts tomitigateandmanagehumanitarian risk in theHornofAfricaandGreat Lakesregion1.Itpresentsafour-monthtrendanalysisfromJunetoSeptember2016andahumanitarianoutlookfromOctober toDecember2016. It is thefifthreport in theseriesandupdates thepreviousscenarioreportwhichwaspublishedinApril2016.

I. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS: JULY – SEPTEMBER 2016

While violent incidents decreased in the last quarter during the rainy season (in keeping with the seasonal nature of protracted crises in the region), conflict continued to pose a significant threat to the safety and security of civilians across the region. In SudanreducedlevelsofgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentwerereportedlyconductedinthecentralareaofDarfurandinthesouthernstatesofSouthKordofanandBlueNile–the‘TwoAreas’.InSomalia,whilethenumberoffatalitiesfromconflictreducedinQ3ascomparedtoQ2,AlShabaabcontinuedtoperpetrateattacksinmanypartsofthecountry,aswellasagainsttheinternationalpresence,withagreaterfrequencyofmajorattacksinMogadishuasthecountrymovesclosertoelections.ViolenceinBurundialsodroppedsignificantlyinthesecondquarteroftheyear,buthightensionsandastalledpeaceprocesscontinuedalongsideapatternoflarge-scalehumanrightsviolations.However,inSouth Sudan,clashesinvariouslocationsacrossthecountry,includingheavyfightinginWauinJune,JubainJuly,andhotspotsacrosstheEquatoriasfromJulyonwards,ledtomorethandoublethenumberofconflictfatalitiescomparedtothepreviousquarteraccordingtoACLED.Thisledtoadeteriorationinthehumanitarianandhumanrightssituation,withwidespreadsexualviolenceandattacksonaidworkers.ThishasalsoresultedinanincreaseinthenumberofSouthSudaneserefugeesfleeingtoneighbouringcountries,pushingthetotalnumberofSouthSudaneserefugeestoover1million.Severefoodandnutritioninsecurityhasnowspreadbeyondtheconflictaffectedareas,withNorthernandWesternBarehGhazalandWarrapstatesbeingofparticularconcern.InEthiopia,anti-governmentprotestsbytheOromoandAmharaethnicgroupscontinuedwithreportsofcasualtiesamongprotestersand security forces. OHCHR has called upon the Ethiopian government to permit the deployment ofindependentobserversintothecountrytoaccessthehumanrightssituation.InKenya,tensionsaroundelectionstobeheldinAugust2017,whichhadledtoviolentprotestsintherecentpast,subsidedwiththedecisionoftheJointParliamentarySelectCommitteetoreformtheelectoralCommission.

El Niño’s impact continued to be felt in the region despite the persistence of ENSO-neutral conditions since the end of the strong El Niño episode in May 2016.ThescaleandsizeofthedroughtemergencyinEthiopia,wheretheElNiñohashadthegreatestimpact,stilldwarfsthescaleofothercrisesintheregionintermsofthenumberofpeopleinneedofhumanitarianassistance,nownumbering9.7millionpeople-amoderatedecreasefrom10.2millionpeopleinJune.TheunprecedentedhumanitarianresponsebytheGovernmentofEthiopia,supportedbytheinternationalcommunity,offerssomelessonstoestablishablueprintforfutureaction.

1ThisreportincludesBurundi,Djibouti,EasternDRC,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Kenya,RwandaSomalia,SouthSudan,Sudan,UgandaandtheimpactoftheYemencrisisontheHorn

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

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Economic shocks across the Horn of Africa and Great Lakes region continue to primarily affect the most vulnerable and compound humanitarian needs. Last yearwitnessed a fall in global commodityprices(suchascrudeoil)andweakglobalgrowth,theeffectsofwhicharestillbeingfeltinto2016.Thiseconomicdownturnhasbeenexacerbatedbythesocio-politicalinstabilityplaguingcountriesintheEastAfricaregion,aswellasbytheeffectsofproductionlossesduetoElNiño.TheIMFrevisedthegrowthprojectionssubstantiallydownforsub-SaharanAfrica,reflectingchallengingmacroeconomicconditionsinitslargesteconomies,whichareadjustingtolowercommodityrevenues.InSouthSudan,thedeterioratingeconomicsituationiscompoundingtheimpactofconflictonfoodinsecurity.Theyear-on-yearinflationrateinAugust2016was730percent;thehighestintheworld.

Due to the convergence of climatic, conflict, and economic shocks, the number of food insecure people in the region2 facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC 3 and 4) levels, has doubled in the last 12 months from 11.0 million in September 2015 to 23.4 million people today.TheworstaffectedcountriesareEthiopia(9.7millionpeople),SouthSudan(4.79millionpeople),andSudan(4.42millionpeople).UNICEFreportsaheightenedmalnutritionsituationintheregionincludinganunprecedentednutritioncrisisinSouthSudan.SixoutoftheeightIGADcountriesintheregion(SouthSudan,Sudan,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Somalia(IDPs),andpartsofKenya)areonhighalertforacutemalnutrition.SouthSudan,NorthWestKenya(Turkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit)andSomalia(inparticularIDPsites)havecontinuedtoexperienceaseriousnutritionaldeterioration,whilst inEthiopia,highnumbersofpeoplecontinuetobeadmittedforacutemalnutrition,althoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimprovedduetotheaveragetoaboveBelg harvest.

Violence and rising food insecurity in South Sudan and Burundi has resulted in increased population displacement.Asof30September2016,thelargestrefugeeoutflowfortheregionwasof1.03millionrefugeesfromSouthSudan.ThemajorityofnewdisplacedhavefledSouthSudansincefreshviolenceeruptedinJubaon8July2016,includingover150,000peoplewhohavecrossedintoUgandasinceearlyJuly and approximately 32,000 South Sudanese have arrived into the Gambella region of Ethiopia inrecentweeks,seekingassistanceandprotection.ElsewhererefugeesarrivingintoSudanfromtheGreaterBahrElGhazalregioncitedseverefoodandnutritioninsecuritiesasdrivingfactors.InNorthernBahrelGhazaloneinthreechildrenaged6-59monthsarebelievedtobeacutelymalnourished.ThenumberofBurundianrefugeescontinuedtoincreaseexponentiallyto301,403despitereportedspontaneousreturnsof36,798.3PoliticalinstabilityandfoodinsecurityarebeingcitedbytherefugeesasbeingkeyreasonsintheirdecisiontofleetoTanzania.

The combination of new emergencies and resurging conflicts has increased the cumulative total number of refugees and asylum seekers in the East, Horn and Great Lakes to 3.6 million refugees,whichrepresentsa13percentincreasesincethebeginningofthisyear.AsaresultoftherecentinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugees,UgandaisnowthecountryhostingmostrefugeesinAfrica.Theregionalsohosts955,000Somaliand404,105DRCongorefugees,wholive inprotractedexilewith limitedprospectofdurablesolutionwithoutcommensuratesupportfromtheinternationalcommunitytomeettheirneeds.

TheGovernmentofKenyaannouncedinMaythatasaresultofsecurity,environmentalandeconomicburdens,itwouldcloseDadaabcamp,whichhousesover284,000Somalis,by30November2016.Thisstanceseemedtosoftenon25JunewithastatementbytheTripartiteCommission,whichinformedofareductionof150,000peopleinthecampbytheendof2016.Sincethebeginningofvoluntaryrepatriationin2014,almost30,000Somalishavereturned–24,000ofthemin2016.4On29Augusthowever,Jubaland

2TheregionincludesBurundi,Rwanda,Uganda,SouthSudan,Sudan,Eritrea,Ethiopia,Djibouti,SomaliaandKenya

3FollowingtheverificationexerciseinMakamba,32,729SpontaneousReturnswerereportedoutofwhommerely3,483claimedtohaveregisteredasrefugees.SeeRegionalUpdateBurundi#28http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php

4http://www.voanews.com/a/somalirefugeesleavingkenyaduetothreatsandpressureunsays/3480706.html

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authorities in Somalia, announced the temporary suspension of voluntary returns due to the lack ofabsorptioncapacityforthereturnees,notablyinalreadydenselypopulatedareas,suchasKismayo.

Simultaneous disease outbreaks have affected the region in parallel with the El Niño weather events.Ofgreatestconcernaresome63,2205suspectedcasesofcholera and Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) across the region in2016alone,alongsideotherdiseases, includingyellow fever, measles, and chikungunya virus and kala-azar.SpikesinmalariacaseshavealsobeenreportedinBurundi,easternDRCandinSouthSudan,whereisthetopcauseofmorbidity intheIDPsandinthenon-conflictaffectedstateswith1.3million cases reported this year. The impact of these outbreaks and the high risk of contagion in theregion, particularly given the fluid populationmovements, requires appropriate interventions on keyissuessuchasvaccinationcampaigns;scale-upofaccesstosafewater,sanitationandhygieneservices;communitysensitizationincludingsettingacross-bordercoordinationmechanism;andimprovingsystemsofprevention,surveillance,controlandtreatmentofdisease.AjointIGAD/UNmulti-agencyproposalatanestimatedcostof$20millionisbeingfinalizedtoaddressthecholeraandchikungunyavirusoutbreaksandtheirriskfactorsintheManderaTriangle(ManderaKenya,BeletHaawoSomaliaandDolloAdoEthiopia)from September 2016 to September 2018 through immediate, medium and long-termmulti-sectoralapproaches.

The operating environment in conflict settings continues to deteriorate, especially in South Sudan. Data madeavailableduringthereportingperiodindicatedthat,in2015,South SudanovertookAfghanistanasthecountrywiththehighestnumberofattacksagainstaidworkers.AndanewlowofdepravitywasreachedattheTerrainHotel inJuba inJuly2016.Violenceagainstpersonnelandassetshashadatremendousadverseeffectonhumanitarianoperations. In July aloneasWFPandFAOwarehouseswere looted inJubaandseveralNGOscompoundswerelootedinLeer,causingmillionsofdollarsworthofdamageandloss.6TheoperatingenvironmentinSomaliacontinuestobeparticularlydifficult.InEthiopiathedroughtresponsehasexperiencedasignificantslow-downasaconsequencetheseprotests.FooddispatchesfromGovernmentwarehouses,whichhavebeenoperatingat25percentcapacityforthepastfewweeks,toAmharaandOromiawereimpacted.Therehasbeenadegreeofnormalizationoverthelastfewdays.

Both the climate induced humanitarian needs and conflict induced displacement continue to be underfunded.Asof30September,thehumanitarianrequirementstomeeturgenthumanitarianneedsacrosstheregioncurrentlystandat$6.7billion,ofwhichlessthanhalf(48percent)isfunded.Despitethelargenumbersofrefugees,theRefugeeResponsePlans(RRPs)arestillthemostpoorlyfundedhumanitarianappealsintheregion.TheRRPsforSouthSudan,BurundiandYementogetherrequirenearly$1.2billion,ofwhichonly24percenthasbeenfunded.TheSouthSudanRefugeePlanhasthelowestfundinglevelat20percent,whiletheYemenRRPreceived27percentbytheendofSeptember.TheBurundiRegionalRefugeeResponsePlan2016is37percentfunded.Migrationresponseandclimateadaptationfundsneedtobemoreeffectivelydeployedtoprovidedurablesolutions.

II. REGIONAL OUTLOOK: OCTOBER - DECEMBER 2016

Conflict in protracted settings such as Somalia, parts of Sudan, as well as South Sudan, is expected to intensify during the dry season (November onwards). Tensions related to the state formationandelectoral processes in Somalia could further exacerbate pre-existing inter-communal tensions, andleadtofurtherviolence.TherearealsoreportsthatAMISOMintendstolaunchanoffensiveagainstAlShabaabinLowerJubabeforetheimplementationoftheelectoralprocesswhichcouldadverselyaffectthe civilian population and further limit humanitarian activities.The situations in Burundi and South

5Includes18,102casesinDRC

6http://www.unocha.org/south-sudan

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Sudan are likely to get worse. In Burundi, the Inter-BurundiDialogue stillexcludesmanyelementsoftheopposition,lesseningthechancesofapoliticalresolutioninthenearfuture,anddespiteUNSecurityCouncil approval for thedeploymentof additional policeofficers toBurundi, thegovernmenthasnotacceptedtheirdeployment.InSouth Sudan,RiekMacharremainsoutsidethecountryandexcludedfrompowerandsignificantdefectionsarebeing reported. If theSouthSudanese transitionalgovernment isunabletosupporttheprocessofreconciliation it is likelythatfurtherviolencemaybreakout,causingimmensesufferingtothecivilianpopulation.Continuedviolencewillalsogreatly impacthumanitarianprogrammingandobstructhumanitarianaccesstopeopleinneedwithdisastrousconsequencesforthecivilianpopulation.TheUNSecurityCouncilDespiteUNSecurityCouncilapprovalforthedeploymentofadditionalpoliceofficerstoBurundianda4,000strongprotectionforceinSouthSudantherespectivegovernmentshaveresistedtheseinitiativessofar.ElectionsintheDemocratic Republic of Congo(DRC)willbedelayedtillDecember2018accordingtotheCorneilleNangaa,headofthecountry’selectoralbody.TensionsaroundtheelectionsinDRChavealreadyresultedinviolence,accordingtoHumanRightsWatch,37protesters,sixpoliceofficers,andoneKabilasupporterwerekilled.ThishasfurtherdestabilizedtheGreatLakesregionandresultedinadditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborders.InKenya, politicalre-alignmentsaheadof2017electionsmaycreatenewsourcesoftensioninthecountry.TensionsinEthiopiaarealsoofgreatconcern.On9OctobertheGovernmentofEthiopiadeclareda6-monthsStateofEmergency.

On-goingconflictandethnically-motivatedviolenceintheEastAfricanregioncontinuestobecharacterizedbythedeliberatetargetingandharmofcivilians.Serious internationalhumanitarianandhumanrightslawviolationsareoccurringonacontinuousbasis.Withalackofaccountabilitymechanisms,thereisariskthatalarmingreportsofsexualviolence,suchasrape,gangrapeandsexualslaveryinSouthSudan,discoveryofnewmassgravesinBurundiandfurtherviolenceagainstprotestersinEthiopiawillcontinuetoemerge

The latest climate model from the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) forecasts reduced La Niña expectations, and suggest near-equal chances for neutral ENSO and weak La Niña conditions through end of 2016.7 IGADICPACseasonalforecasthaspredictednormaltobelownormalrainfallfortheperiodSeptembertoDecember2016intheareashistoricallyaffectedbydroughtinducedLaNina such as 2010/11 and 1988. Thiswillmean additional drought for pastoral, agro-pastoral andseasonalcroppingactivitiesaswellasflooding.Theareasofconcernforbelowaveragerainfall includepastoralareasofEthiopia(South-Pastoralregionswhilethenorth-easternpastoralareasareseasonablynotexpectingrainfallintheforecastperiod);Kenya(EasternandNorthernareas);Djibouti(northernandcoastalareas);Somalia(mainlyinSomalilandandPuntland);andTanzania(northernpastoralandMountKilimanjaroareas).Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsectorwhichcouldleadtoincreasewaterlogging,possiblefloodingand landslides inwesternpartsofUganda,EthiopiaandKenyaaswellas in thevastmajorityof SouthSudanandSudan (particularlySouthernandEasternSudan, includingKassala,RedSea,KordofansandNileStates).Inadditioncropandanimaldiseasesandpests,damagetoinfrastructure,displacement,andpost-harvestlossesareexpected.

If La Niña were to materialize it is likely going to impact regions that have already been negatively affected by El Niño, most likely causing a further deterioration of food security into 2017.Thenumberofpeopleundercrisisandemergency(IPCphases3&4)orinneedhumanitarianassistanceislikelytoincreasefromthecurrent23.4millionpeopleinthefirsthalfof2017astherainfallseasonisconsecutivelynegativelyimpactedparticularlyfortheareaslikelytoreceivenormaltobelownormalrainfallandyettorecoverfromElNino.Inaddition,foodpriceslooksettocontinuetheirrisetorecordlevelsincountriesthatdepictpoormacroeconomicconditionsandareaswhoseproductionwillbeaffectedbydrierthannormalconditionsinSeptembertoDecemberinEastAfricancountries,exacerbatingfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionacrosstheregion.

7AccordingtotheInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI).

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As a result of El Niño and possible La Niña drought and flooding, waterborne communicable diseases as well as vector-born diseases are expected to increase throughout the region.Aboveaveragerainfallexpected inUganda,westernEthiopiaandKenya,aswellas inthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareaswhereitcouldleadtoafurtherincreaseinCholeraandAWDcasesaswellassimultaneousoutbreaksofvectorborneand/orwaterbornediseases.

Population displacement is expected to continue to increase, particularly from and within South Sudan, withmorethan100,000additionalrefugeesprojectedtoarriveinUgandabytheendoftheyearaccordingtoUNHCR.WhiletheTripartiteCommissionagreedtomeetinOctober2016toreviewprogressmadeonthevoluntary repatriationofSomali refugees fromKenya, the returnofSomali refugees fromDadaabislikelytoexacerbatethefragilehumanitariansituationintheareasofreturn.TheabsorptioncapacityconstraintraisedbytheauthoritiesinJubalandareanindicationthattensionsmayrisethere,sincemanySomalirefugeesinKenyaoriginatefromtheprovinceandarelikelytoreturnthere.FloodingoverthenexttwomonthsisexpectedtocontinuetodisplacepopulationsinEthiopiainthecomingperiod.Therecentviolent clashes in DRCmaybeaprecursortomorepre-electionviolencepotentiallyleadingtopopulationdisplacement.

III. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS

Humanitarian needs are expected to increase throughout the region, and humanitarian conditions invulnerabilityhotspotsarelikelytodeterioratesignificantly.Theseareasinclude:

•Multiple locations across South Sudan.InNorthernBahrelGhazal(NBeG),theacutefoodinsecurityandmalnutritioncrisisisexpectedtocontinue,whileinWesternBahrelGhazal(WBeG)ongoingconflictandinsecuritycontinuestodrivehumanitarianneeds.OngoingclashesintheEquatoriasarelikelytotriggeradditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborderstoUganda,DRCandCAR.Meanwhile,theGreaterUpperNileregionremainshighlyunstableandfurthertensionsarelikelyandmaycausefurtherdisplacement, including toEthiopiaandSudan.There isalso the likelihoodof thecontinuedspreadofcommunicablediseaseoutbreaks,includingcholera,malaria,measlesandkala-azar.

•Uganda.GiventheunprecedentedinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugeesintheNorth(Adjumani,Kirandongoetc), withmore than 100,000 South Sudanese refugees arriving in September alone, and structurallyunderfundedRegionalRefugeeAppeal.

•South central Somalia, northwestern Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia areas. The predicted depressed rainfallwillleadtobelowaverageagriculturalproductioninsomeparts;likelytofurtherincreasealreadyalarming food insecurityandmalnutrition levels.At the sametime,enhanced rainfall in theEthiopianhighlandsislikelytoleadtoflooding,landslidesandanincreaseinwater-bornediseases,includingalongrivers in south central Somalia.Growing tensions, clan and localized conflict at county level ahead ofelections,thereturnofSomali refugeesfromKenya,couldprovetobeanadditionalstressfactor,andsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiescouldfurthercompoundvulnerabilities.

•Pastoralist areas in the eastern Ethiopia - northwest Somalia border areashavefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015andarelikelytocontinuetobehitbyerraticandbelowaveragerains.

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IV. RECOMMENDED ACTIONS

CLIMATE(1)Governments,withthesupportofregionalorganizations,humanitariananddevelopmentpartners,should update and implement national contingency plans for both drought and flood responses.Furthermore,coordinatedresourcemobilizationeffortsareneeded,includingexploringnewsourcesoffundingsuchastheClimateAdaptationFunds,whichwillholddiscussionsonthedeploymentoffundsinNovember2016inMorocco.Sofar,thefundhascommittedUS$354.9millionin61countriessince2010toclimateadaptationandresilienceactivities.

(2)Advocate for the resultsof theongoing reviewof the impactof the ‘EndingDroughtEmergencies’adoptedbyIGADin2011tofeedintotheworkoftheElNiñoEnvoys,namelyinthedevelopmentofablueprintandStandardOperatingProceduresforintegratedhumanitarian/developmentactiontobetterprepareforfutureclimateshocks.

(3)Scale-upintegratedmulti-sectoralemergencyresponse,recoveryandresiliencebuildinginterventionsincludingcashtransfers/socialsafetynets,marketbasedintervention,nutritionsupplies,water,sanitation,health,provisionofanimalfodderandseeds,destocking,andplanforrecoveryactivities,crossbordercoordinationincludingtoaddressdiseaseoutbreaksthroughmulti-sectorresponseincludingstrengthenedregionalsurveillance,water/sanitation,healthandvectorcontrol.

(4)FinalizethesubregionalIGAD/UNcommunicablediseasepreparednessandresponseplanforKenya,SomaliaandEthiopia (SomaliCluster)andpresent to thedonor community to implementa sustainedresponse. Implementation of the plan could catalyze further action for this priority IGAD cluster, fordevelopment investment tomitigateagainst significanthumanitarian risks,build resilientcommunitiesandachievedurablesolutionsforrefugeesandIDPs.

SOUTH SUDAN, GREAT LAKES(5)PrepareforadeteriorationofthehumanitariansituationinSouthSudan,DRCandBurundi,bydevelopingand/orupdatingregionalmulti-countryregionalcontingencyplansbasedonwhereappropriatenationallyledeffortswithalignedscenarioplans,analysis,andrecommendations,forregionalpreparedness.

(6)Activelysupportearlysolutionsplanningandprogramingtobetterlinkhumanitariananddevelopmentapproachestodurablesolutions,includingthroughclosecoordinationwiththenewlyestablishedIGADRegionalSecretariatonForcedDisplacementandMixedMigrationfortheHornofAfricaandtheICGLRandtheUNSpecialEnvoyfortheGreatLakes.Itiscriticaltoprovideadequatelong-termandpredictablefinancialsupporttocountriesandcommunitiesintheregionthathostrefugeesandIDPs,insuchwaysthat improve access to integrated services and economic opportunities. Through coordinated action,additionalfundingcouldalsobeleveraged,includingfromEUMigrationfunding.

KENYA-SOMALIA(7)DevelopregionalcontingencyplansinvolvingallGovernmentcounterpartsandagencies,whichincludetheidentificationofresourcesrequiredtoleveragesupportformoresustainableservicesinformedbyjointanalysisofvulnerabilitiesandcompoundingriskfactorsassociatedwiththeclosureofDadaabrefugeecamp.Thesewouldinclude:aSomalia(re)integrationplan;themobilizationofresourcesandmessagingtoaddresstheunderfundedRRP;increasedfoodinsecurityandpopulationdisplacementasaresultofLaNiña;underfundingandhumanitarianaccessconstrains;aswellasinsecurityasaresultofelection-relatedviolence,clan-basedviolenceand/orterroristattacks.UsethisPlanforpreparednessfortheworst-casescenarioandtomaximizeopportunitiestoachievedurablesolutions.

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(8)Engageinhigh-leveladvocacywiththeAU,donorsanddevelopmentpartners,toprioritizesupporttotheregionaleffortinthesearchfordurablesolutionsinadditiontootherpriorityinitiativesincluding:cooperationbetweenKenya and Ethiopia on theMarsabit/Boranaborder, and the joint IGAD/UN subregionalplantoaddresscommunicablediseasesintheSomaliCluster.

II. HUMANITARIAN TRENDS AND OUTLOOK

DRIVERS OF HUMANITARIAN NEED

CONFLICT TRENDS AND POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTSOverview: Violent conflict, being the main driver of humanitarian suffering and displacement, continues to pose a significant threat to the safety and security of civilians across the region.Situationsofon-goingconflict,conflictaccompanyingpoliticalanddevelopmentprocessesandinter-communalviolencehavebeenresponsiblefor3,987fatalitiesbetweenJulyandSeptember(ACLEDdata).

DespitetheformationofthetransitionalgovernmentinApril,lowlevelclashesinpartsofthecountrysetthestageforabreakdowninthepeaceprocess.TheintensificationofactiveconflictinSouth SudaninJuly,alongwithfightinginmultiplelocations–particularlytheEquatorias-inAugustandSeptember,morethandoubledthenumberofconflictfatalitiesthereascomparedtothepreviousquarter.InSudan,fatalitiesdroppedsignificantly, reflectinga reportedreduction inbothgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentinDarfurandtheTwoAreas.Thisisinkeepingwiththeseasonalnatureofconflictthere–conflictlevelshistorically reduceduring the leanseason.However, thisyearmilitarycampaigns inpartsof the JebelMarrareportedlycontinuedbeyondtheleanseason.

In Ethiopia,anti-governmentprotestsbytheOromoandAmharaethnicgroupscontinuedwithreportsofcasualtiesamongprotestersandsecurityforces.OHCHRhascalledupontheEthiopiagovernmenttopermitthedeploymentofindependentobserversintothecountrytoaccessthehumanrightssituation.IntensifyingAlShabaaboffensivesafterRamadan,clanviolenceandtheupcomingelectoralprocess inSomaliathreatentoincreasethealreadyconsistentlyhighnumberoffatalitiesthereinthecomingmonths.ReportedfatalitiesinBurundihavedroppedsignificantlyinthesecondquarteroftheyear,yetBurundiisnoclosertoapoliticalresolutionandasthishashadadirectimpactontheincreasinghumanitarianneedsinthecountry.

BURUNDIBurundiismiredinapoliticalcrisis,whichappearstobedeepening,astherulingpartyandoppositionvoicesarenoclosertoaresolutionoftheconstitutionalcrisispredicatedbytheelectionsheldin2015whenPresidentNkurunzizasoughtandwonathirdelectoralterm.AnIntra-BurundiDialoguetookplaceinArushaon12July,mediatedbytheEastAfricanCommunityandfacilitatedbyTanzania’sformerpresidentBenjaminMkapa.Howeverrepresentativesoffivepoliticalpartieswhoparticipatedinthe2015generalelection boycotted the summit over a conflict about the participation of certain opposition figures.TheGovernmentremainsunwillingtonegotiatewiththosepoliticalopponents itholdsresponsiblefororganizingthefailedcoupattemptlastyear.Theseincludekeyoppositionfigureswhoremaininexile,with

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whomMr.MkapaalsometinBelgium.AccordingtoBurundi’sForeignAffairsMinisterAlainNyamitwe,themainpurposeofthenow-stalleddialoguewasthereturnofrefugeesandpreparationsforthe2020elections.Inthefaceofthispoliticalstalemateitseemslikelythathumanitarianconditionsinthecountrywillcontinuetodeteriorateinthecomingmonths.

TREND OF CONFLICT IN BURUNDI (2015 TO SEPT 2016)

Num

ber o

f con

flict

eve

nts

Num

ber o

f fat

ali�

es

Source: Armed Conflict Location and Events Database (ACLED)

0

50

100

150

200

250

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1/20

/201

5

2/10

/201

5

3/3/

2015

3/24

/201

5

4/14

/201

5

5/5/

2015

5/26

/201

5

6/16

/201

5

7/7/

2015

7/28

/201

5

8/18

/201

5

9/8/

2015

9/2

9/20

15

10/2

0/20

15

11/

10/2

015

12/1

/201

5

12/2

2/20

15

1/12

/201

6

2/2/

2016

2/23

/201

6

3/1

5/20

16

4/5/

2016

4/26

/201

6

5/17

/201

6

6/7/

2016

6/2

8/20

16

7/19

/201

6

8/9

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6

8/30

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6

9/20

/201

6

10/1

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6

Trend of conflict in Burundi (2015 to Sept 2016)

Ba�le-No change of territory Riots/Protests Strategic development Violence against civilians Fatali�es

CONFLICT TRENDS

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

ANGOLA

KENYA

SOMALIA

LIBYA

YEMEN

EGYPT

ZAMBIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOFTHE CONGO

UNITED REPUBLICOF TANZANIA

UGANDA

CENTRAL AFRICANREPUBLIC

ERITREA

BURUNDIRWANDA

DJIBOUTI

SOUTHSUDAN

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

ANGOLA

KENYA

SOMALIA

LIBYA

YEMEN

EGYPT

SOUTHSUDAN

ZAMBIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLICOF THE CONGO


UGANDA


ERITREA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

ANGOLA

KENYA

SOMALIA

LIBYA

YEMEN

EGYPT

SOUTH SUDAN

ZAMBIA

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO


UGANDA


ERITREA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

Incidents4 - 2526 - 5051 - 100101 - 150151 - 200>200

Pending verification

1336

1226

2944

282

6

92

43523

1679

1322

5623

318

13

52

106350

1031

476

6210

445

21

17

681280

JAN - MARCH APRIL - JUNE

JULY - SEPTEMBER

Source: Armed conflict and location and events database (ACLED)

Others

Strategic development

Remote violence

Riots/Protests

Violence against civilians

Battle-No change of territory

FatalitiesXX

ETHIOPIA

12


On29July,theUNSecurityCouncilapprovedaUNpolicecomponentofupto228officersinBurundiforaninitialperiodofoneyear,withamandatetomonitorthesecuritysituationandassistOHCHRinmonitoringhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Burundihasrejectedthedecisionandhaswithdrawnitconsenttoallow50policeofficersintothecountry,althoughitwillstillallowthe200AfricanUnionobserversandmilitaryexperts,ofwhomonly50havetakenuptheirpoststhusfar.

CONFLICT TREND - FEB TO AUG 2016

Conflict trend Feb to Sept 2016

Source: Armed Conflict Location and Events Database (ACLED)

Num

ber o

f inc

iden

ts

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Burundi DRC Somalia South Sudan Sudan

Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

SOMALIASomalia’s electoral process scheduled for September andOctober 2016 continues tobe accompaniedbyrisingpoliticaltensionandviolence.Itremainsunclearwhetherthereisadirectcorrelationbetweenincidentsofpoliticalviolenceandtheelectoralprocess;howeverafurtherescalationofviolencearoundtheissueispossible.AlShabaabhasdeclaredthatitintendstodisrupttheprocess,inwhichmorethan14,000Somalis inMogadishuand in the regionalcapitals/seatsofgovernmentwillparticipate.14,025“electors” representing the clanswill select themembersof the lowerhouseofParliamentwhile thecountry’srecentlyformedstategovernmentswillnominatemembersoftheupperhouse.Together,thetwohouseswillelectanewpresident.Thesevotersandstakeholdersgatheringinurbancentresacrossthecountrywillbevulnerabletoattacksandsecurityincidents,whileatthesametime,theuseoffinancial,securityandlogisticalresourcestofacilitatetheelectionscouldhaveadetrimentaleffectonhumanitarianactivitiesduringthisperiod.

Al Shabaab has continued to perpetrate attacks inmany parts of the country, as well as against theinternationalpresenceinSomalia,withagreaterfrequencyofmajorattacksinMogadishusincetheendofRamadan.TherearecontinuedreportsthatAMISOMintendstolaunchanoffensiveagainstAlShabaabinLowerJubabeforetheimplementationoftheelectoralprocess.Ifandwhenundertaken,suchmilitaryactivity is certain to affect the civilianpopulationand the limitedhumanitarianactivitiesunderway inLowerJubaandotherregionswithastrongAlShabaabpresence.Inrecentmonths,anumberofcitieshaveseenchangesofcontrolbackandforthbetweengovernmentforcesandAlShabaab,includingtheLowerShabellecityofMarkawherethepopulationhasbeencaughtinthemiddleofcontinuingviolence.

Inter-clanviolenceandtensionalsoremainshighelsewhere,withclashesbetweenPuntlandandSomalilandforces in the context of Somaliland’s voter registrationexercise in thedisputedareasof Sool, EasternSanaagandBuuhoodle at theendof July. The state formationprocess inHiraanandMiddle Shabelleremainscontroversial,withclansinHiraanrejectingeffortsledbytheFederalGovernmentandIGADtore-launchthestateformationconferenceinearlySeptember.Tensionsrelatedtothestateformationandelectoralprocessesexacerbatepre-existinginter-communaltensions,andfurtherviolencecoulderuptinthecomingperiod.

13


EAST AFRICA ELECTORAL TIMELINE

Sources: African Union, National Democratic Institute, Electionguide.org

P - Presidential Elections

G - General Elections

N.A - National Assembly Elections

L - Legislative Elections

R - Referendum

Date not confirmed

Postponed

KENYAG

KENYAN.A

SOMALIAN.A

SUDANN.A

EAST AFRICA ELECTORAL TIMELINE

NOVOCTSEP DEC JAN FEB MAR APR JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC

17 Jul27 Nov

30 Nov23 Oct 10 Nov 31 Aug 10 Oct 31 Dec

2016 2017DRCN.A

DRCP

SOMALIAN.A

DRCL

RWANDAN.A

SOMALIAP

SUDANReducedlevelsofgroundfightingandaerialbombardmentwerereportedlyconductedinthecentralareaofDarfurandinthesouthernstatesofSouthKordofanandBlueNile–the‘TwoAreas’–withtheonsetof the rainyseason.However,clashes reportedatAlazraq,amajor farmingarea in thecentralpartofSouthKordofan,bythegovernment,negatively impactedthealreadyfragilehumanitarianconditionofthepopulation.

On8August2016,themainmembersoftheSudaneseoppositionsignedtheRoadMapAgreement,whichwasendorsedbytheGovernmentofSudan inMarch2016withtheexceptionoftheSudanLiberationArmy-AbdelWahid,themainrebelgroupcurrentlyactiveinDarfur.Followingthis,atwo-trackeddiscussiononacessationofhostilitiesandhumanitarianassistancefortheTwoAreasandDarfur”beganinAddisAbabawith the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel (AUHIP) acting asmediator. After sixdaysof consultation, the talkson theTwoAreascollapsed,which in turnalso stalled theDarfur trackdiscussions,whichalsostalledoverdisagreementondivulginglocationofforces.AstheGovernmentandtheoppositionappearunabletocurrentlycometoaresolution,conflictinSudanisexpectedtoresumeduringthenextdryseason(Novemberonwards).

SOUTH SUDANDeadly clashes took place in June in Western Bahr el Ghazal, displacing more than 80,000 people.Approximately44,300peopleweredisplacedinWautownandafurtherestimated38,800weredisplacedinareasoutsideofWau.8On7July,fightingeruptedinJubabetweentheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmyandtheSudanPeople’sLiberationArmy-InOpposition(SPLA-IO).Thefightingwhichspreadacrossthecity,resultedinhundredsdead,andwasaccompaniedbythelootingofmillionsofdollars’worthofaidfromWFPandFAOwarehouses.UNMISScompoundsandProtectionofCivilians(PoC)sitessustainedimpactsfromsmallarmsandheavyweaponsfire, leavingtwopeacekeepersdeadanddamagingthematernitywardof ahealth clinic.UNMISS reportedeightpeople killedandfifty-nine injured in andaroundPoCsitesbetween10-11 July.9On11 July, armedmen inuniformstormed theTerrainHotel, a compound

8StatementoftheRegionalandInternationalPartnersofJMECRegardingWauJune29,2016,http://www.jmecsouthsudan.com/news.php?id=32

9http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/press-briefing-note-south-sudan-12-july-2016

14


housing humanitarianworkers, killing one aidworker and raping andbeatingothers.10On 16August,theUNSecretary-GenerallaunchedanindependentspecialinvestigationtodeterminethecircumstancessurroundingtheseincidentsandtoevaluatetheMission’soverallresponse.11

On 11 July, following pressure from the international community - IGADmember states, the AfricanUnion,theUSandChina-PresidentKiirandDr.ReikMacharagreedtoaceasefire.However,fightinghascontinuedinmultiplelocationsacrossthecountry,particularlytheEquatorias,wheretensofthousandsofpeoplehavebeendisplaced.

UNresolution(2304/2016),adoptedon12August,calledfortheestablishmentofaRegionalProtectionForceforJuba,comprisingof4,000extratroopswithamandatetoprovideextrasecurityinthecapitaluntil15December2016. The resolutionalso increased the ceiling forUNMISS troop levels to17,000.DiscussionsareongoingwiththeGovernmentofSouthSudanregardingthedeploymentoftheforce.TheresolutionallowedfortheadoptionofanarmsembargointhefaceofpoliticaloroperationalimpedimentstooperationalizingtheRegionalProtectionForceorobstructionstoUNMISSinperformanceofitsmandate.

Giventhehighlyvolatilesituation,itislikelythatfurtherviolenceacrossthecountrywillcontinuetocauseimmensesufferingforthecivilianpopulation,andobstructhumanitarianaccesstopopulationsinneedinthemonthsahead.

CLIMATEOverview: The impact of El Niño continues to be felt in the region despite the persistence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions since the end of May 2016.12ThelatestclimatemodelfromtheInternationalResearchInstituteforClimateandSociety(IRI)forecastsreducedLaNiñaexpectations,andsuggestsnear-equalchances forneutralENSOandweakLaNiñaconditions throughendof2016.However,themostinfluentialweathersystemontheHornofAfricaregionalclimateistheIndianOceanDipole(IOD),whichiscurrentlyinnegativephase.ThecombinationofaweakLaNinaandanegativeIODhastranslatedintodepressedrainfallovermostoftheregionandenhancedrainfallinsomeparts.

CPC/IRI EARLY - MONTH OFFICIAL ENSO FORECAST PROBABILITIES

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

AMJ2016

MJJ2016

JJA2016

JAS2016

ASO2016

SON2016

OND2016

NDJ2016

DJF2016

JFM2017

FMA2017

MAM2017

Season

CPC/IRI Early-Month Official ENSO Forecast Probabilities

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña

AccordingtotheICPACGreaterHornof Africa (GHA) consensus climateoutlook there is an increasedlikelihood of below normal rainfallovermostof theequatorialpartsofthe region, especially in theeasternand southern sectors of the regionThe areas of concern due to the below average October-December rainfall include pastoral areas of Ethiopia (South-Pastoral regions); Kenya (Eastern and Northern areas); Djibouti (northern and coastal

areas); Somalia (mainly in Somaliland and Puntland); and Tanzania (northern pastoral and Mount Kilimanjaro areas).Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsectorwhichmayleadtoflooding

10OCHASouthSudanPressStatement,19August2016, http://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/SS_160819_World_Humanitarian_Day_Press_Release.pdf

11https://www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/statement/2016-08-16/statement-attributable-spokesman-secretary-general-south-sudan

12WHOMonthlyElNiñoUpdate,August2016.

15


andlandslidesinwesternpartsofUganda,Ethiopia,SudanandKenyaaswellasinthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareas;enhancedrainfallintheseareasislikelytoincreasewaterloggingandpossiblefloodinginflood-proneareas.Intheseareas,landslides,cropandanimaldiseasesandpests,anincreaseinwater-bornediseases,damagetoinfrastructure,displacement,andpost-harvestlossesareexpected.

RAINFALL OUTLOOKIn Ethiopia, Kiremt (June - September) seasonalrains have reduced slightly since mid-August, butthishasnothadanadverseeffectoncroppingandrangeland conditions across much of its highlyproductive agricultural areas in the central andwesternhighlands.However,floodthreatsremain,withpersistentheavyrainsforecastforthecomingmonthsinthewesternhalfofthecountry.

In Somalia,southernagropastoralareasareacauseofconcernduetothesignificantlybelowaverageGu andpredictedbelownormalDeyrrainproductions.Below-average and erratic Gu rainfall from April–June2016has led toasignificantlybelow-averageGuharvest(whichnormallyaccountsfor75percentof total annualproduction),especially in southernagro pastoral areas. Moderate rainfall in mid-Julyenhancedpastureandwater resources in thesouthernagropastoral areas, leading to improvedlivestockproductivityandvalues.RiverineareasofHiraanwereflooded,partlyalsoduetowaterflow

fromEthiopianHighlands,andupto80percentofthecropwasdestroyedinJune2016.However,theONDseasonforecastandlikelyLaNiñaeventoccurringthroughouttheDeyrseason(October-December),whichispredictedbebelow-average,willleadtobelowaverageDeyrproductionandfailuretoadequatelyrestorepastureandwaterresources.

In Sudanaboveaveragerainsoverkeyagriculturalproductionareas(cropandlivestock)ineasternandcentralSudanhaveimprovedagriculturalproductionprospectsinthecountry.Persistentabove-averagerains have resulted in floods in Kassala, Darfur, Sennar, Kordofan, Al Gezira, Gedaref, andWhite NilestatesinSudan,affectinganestimated201,000peopleaccordingtotheNationalFloodTaskForce.Cropproductionisexpectedtobebetterthanlastyearandaverage-to-aboveaverage.

In Djibouti, Karan/Karmarains,whichstartedinJuly,haveresultedinaveragetoabove-averagerainfallamounts.Asaresult,livestockconditionsarealsoexpectedtograduallyimprovewithon-goingfavorablerainsinbothDjiboutiandYemen.

In Kenya, the recently concludedKenya FoodSecurityGroupAssessment (KFSSG), concluded that thepoor seasonal rains (March – June) in northeastern pastoral areas andmarginal agricultural areas ofsoutheasternlowlandsandcoastalareas,arelikelytoprolongtheadverseimpactoncropandlivestockproductionintheseregions.TherearecurrentlyreportsofconflictamongthepastoralcommunitiesofIsiolo,GarissaandTanaRiver,duetolimitedandrapidlydecliningrangelandresourcesinthesecounties.Unfortunately,theseasonalrainfalloutlookforthemuch-depended-uponOctober–December,arealsoverylikelytobepoor,duetothecombinedeffectsofaneutralIODandweakeningLa-Ninaeventattheendoftheyear.Thefoodsecuritysituationisexpectedtoremainprecariousandis likelytoworsenincomingmonths.Cropproductionprospectsforthecountryarelikelytobenear-averagetoslightlybelow

16


averageduetobelow-averagerainsoverpartsofwesternKenyaandsouthernriftvalleyregionsofKenya.EnhancedraininwesternKenyaandaroundtheLackVictoriabasinmayresultinflooding.

In South Sudan,despite theon-goingabove-average rains, violentconflict is likely to limitagriculturalactivitiesandoverallproduction in thecountry.Furthermore,currentfloodsandcontinuedfloodriskspredicted throughout most of the country may exacerbate the situation, with more flood-relateddisplacement expected, coupledwith the loss of crops and other properties. Thismay occur in areaswherepeoplehavealreadybeendisplacedduetoconflict.

In northern Uganda,overallpooranderraticseasonalrainsarelikelytoresultinareducedcropyieldduetoprolongedcrop-water-stress.However, therangelandconditionsovereasternKaramojaare likelytoimprovewiththelaterains,whichareforecasttocontinue.Floodingandlandslidesarelikelyinwestern,LakeVictoriabasinandMt.Elgonareas.

In Burundi and Rwanda,theforecastmoderatetoheavyrains(20–80mm)inthecomingmonths,arelikelytohelpeasethecurrentdrierconditions.

ECONOMIC SHOCKSOverview: Economic shocks across the region primarily affect the most vulnerable and compound humanitarian needs.Lastyearwitnessedafallinglobalcommoditypricesandweakglobalgrowth,theeffectsofwhicharestillbeingfelt into2016.Thiseconomicdownturnhasbeenexacerbatedbysocio-politicalinstabilityplaguingcountriesintheEastAfricaregion,aswellastheeffectsofproductionlossesduetoElNiño.TheWorldBankreviseditsgrowthprojectionssubstantiallydownforsub-SaharanAfrica.After slowing to 3 percent in 2015, economic growth in Sub-SaharanAfrica is projected to fall to 1.6percentin2016,thelowestlevelinovertwodecades.Lowcommoditypricesandtightfinancialconditions,exacerbatedbydomesticheadwindsfrompolicyuncertainty,droughts,andpoliticalandsecurityconcerns,continuedtoweighonactivityacrosstheregion.13

REGIONAL PRICE INDICES (JANUARY 2010 – AUGUST 2016)South Sudan has been particularly hardhit.AccordingtotheIMFArticleIVreportthe decline in oil production by almosthalfandthesharpdropininternationaloilprices caused large shortfalls in foreignexchange receipts and governmentrevenue.ThefiscaldeficitisforecasttobeUS$1.1bn (about 25per centofGDP) inthisfinancialyear,andtheGovernmentisappealingforhelpfromKenya,Chinaandthetraditionaldonorcommunitytomeetbasicexpenditure.

Thecountryisexperiencinganeconomiccrisis with a sharp decline in national income and hyper-inflation, exceeding 730 per cent in August.Moreover,thevalueoftheSouthSudanesepoundhasdroppedbycloseto90percentsincetheexchangerateliberalizationinDecember2015,whilecentralbankinternationalreserveshavedwindledtoafewdaysofimportcoverage.

TradetoandwithinSouthSudanhasbeenseverelydisruptedfollowingrenewedconflictinandaround

13WorldBank,Africa'sPulse,No.14,October2016

17


JubaandduetoinsecurityalongkeyroadsconnectingtoUganda,reducingfoodsuppliesonmostmarkets.Asaresult,staplefoodpricesincreaseddrasticallybetweenJuneandJuly,reachingmorethan10timesthefive-yearaverageonanumberofkeymarkets.Thesepricespikescomeatthepeakoftheleanseasonwhenmosthouseholdshavedepletedtheirfoodstocksandaredependentonmarketpurchasestoaccessfood.14

BurundicontinuestofeeltheeconomicimpactfromthepoliticalcrisisandacrossbordertradebanwithRwandaisaffectinglivelihoodsoftradersandpushingupprices.Onamorepositivenote,taxrevenuesinBurundirosebyalmost13percentinJulycomparedwithayearago.Howeverthisisinsufficienttooffsetthewithdrawalofdonorfunding.

In Somalia,remittancesareakeysourceofincomeandwereestimatedtoreachatotalofUS$1.4billionin2015supporting23percentoftheGDP.However,manybanksintheUnitedStates,UnitedKingdom,CanadaandAustraliahaveclosedthebankaccountsofSomali remittancecompaniespurportedlydueto theperceivedhigh risksofmoney launderingandpotential links to terrorism.TheWorldBankhasselectedandappointed“AbyrintAS”toactasthe“TrustedAgent”totheCentralBankofSomaliaandassisttheauthoritiesincomprehensivelyregulatingandsupervisingmoneytransferbusinessestosustaintheremittanceflow.

Sudan’sannual inflationrateroseto18.15percentinAugustfrom16.5percentinJulyasthepriceoffoodstuffs and services climbed higher. A shortage of foreign currency has seen the Sudanese pounddepreciateagainstthedollarontheblackmarket,reachingabout16tothedollarinlateAugust.

Foodprices across the region continue to increase, having risen to record levels inmanyEastAfricancountries,exacerbatingfoodinsecurityandmalnutritionacrosstheregion.

FEWS NET REGIONAL PRICE INDICES AND FAO FOOD PRICE INDEX, JANUARY 2010 – JULY 2016

Q2-2016 (April to June) vs. Q1-2016 (January to March)Q2-2016 (April to June) vs. Q2-Baseline (Average April to June)

IMPACT OF STAPLE COMMODITY PRICE CHANGES ON THE COST OF THE BASIC FOOD BASKET

Note: This map is based on the calculations at subnational level. Baseline prices are from Q2 2011-2015.

Source: WFP; Base Map: GAUL

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOMALIA

YEMEN

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH SUDAN

TANZANIA

UGANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

KENYA

SOMALIA

YEMEN

SAUDI ARABIA

SOUTH SUDAN

TANZANIA

UGANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

Impact codesLow

Moderate

High

Severe

Monitored butwithout baseline

Water bodies

(< 0)

(0-5%)

(5-10%)

(>10%)

14FEWSNETAlert,DrasticfoodpriceincreasesfurtherreducehouseholdfoodaccessAugust23,2016

18


III. HUMANITARIAN IMPACTFORCED DISPLACEMENT AND MIXED MIGRATION

Overview: Conflict and natural disasters remain the twomain causes of civilian displacement in theregion,whichnowhost3.6millionrefugeesand7.2millionIDP’s.Thenumberofrefugeesintheregionhasincreasedby205,451overthepastquarter,andthenumberofIDPshasincreasedby63,148.Asof30September2016,thelargestrefugeeoutflowfortheregionwasof1.03millionrefugeesfromSouthSudan.

INTERNAL DISPLACEMENTIn Sudan,duringthefirsteightmonthsof2016,approximately80,600peoplewerenewlydisplacedacrossDarfur,accordingtotheUNandpartners.Anadditional117,440peoplewerealsoreportedlydisplaced(inadditiontoabout59,000whohavereportedlyreturned)buttheUNandpartnershavebeenunabletoverifythesefiguresduetoalackofaccesstotherelevantlocations.Thevastmajorityofthedisplacementin2016hasbeentriggeredbytheconflictintheJebelMarraareathatignitedinJanuary2016.15MostoftheunverifiedIDPsarebelievedtobeinCentralDarfurState.16

In South Sudan,intermittentfightingcontinuestodisplacepopulationsacrossthecountry.TheongoingviolenceinandaroundWauhasresultedintherepeateddisplacementofmorethan78,500people.Thisincludesnearly39,800internallydisplacedpeople(IDPs)currentlyshelteringatvariouslocationsinWautown,includingintheUNMISSprotectedarea,theCatholicCathedral,SouthSudanRedCross(SSRC)andNazarethcompounds.Inaddition,morethan38,800peopleareestimatedtobedisplacedintheGreaterBaggariArea– including inBiringi,NgoHalima,Tadu,andNgisa-andMboro.ThousandspeopleweredisplacedUnitystate,wherefightingtookplacebetween6 -15August.17 InRaja,19,000peopleweredisplacedafterviolencebrokeoutinthecityon22July.

In Ethiopia, 44,168 households reportedly returned to their places of origins after temporarily beingdisplacedbytheMarch-Junefloods.18HoweverinJuneafreshdisplacementof56,272individualswasreported as result of the inter-clan conflict along the borders between Somalia and Oromia regions,increasingthenumberofpeopleinprotracteddisplacementinEthiopiatoanestimated657,224.19FloodingoverthenexttwomonthsisexpectedtocontinuetodisplacepeopleinEthiopiainthecomingperiod.20

Inaddition,basedonIOMDTMBurundi,59,758areinternallydisplacedin7provincesoutof18inBurundiforbothnaturaldisastersandpoliticalinstability,asofAugust2016.

15OCHASudan,2016NewDisplacementsandAffectedPeopleinDarfurasof31August2016.

16OCHASudan,JebelMarraCrisisFactSheetIssue7.

17OCHASouthSudan,HumanitarianBulletin,Issue12.

18OCHAEthiopia,HumanitarianBulletin25July2016

19IOMEthiopia,InternalDisplacementUpdate,August2016

20OCHAEthiopia,HumanitarianBulletin,15Aug2016

19


IDPS CASELOAD

SUDAN

KENYA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

TANZANIA

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

YEMEN

SOUTHSUDAN

ETHIOPIA

1,690,000

1,500,000 309,200

545,771

7,130,302IDPs as of Sept 2016

Current IDP caseload

Percentage change since Dec 2015

6,845,545IDPS Caseload as of Dec 2015

Change in IDP caseload since Dec 20155%

0.7%

42.1%

1.4%0.5%

3.2%

XX%

Creation Date: 14 Sept 2016 SOURCE: OCHA, IDMC, UNHCR reports

3,200,000

1,672,989

1,800,000

718,154

XX

309,200

100,000

250

29,800

1,100,000

DRC

CROSS-BORDER DISPLACEMENTLarge numbers of South Sudanese refugees continue to arrive across the region. Across the GreaterEquatoriaregion,tensofthousandsofpeoplehavebeendisplacedandmorethan150,000peoplewhohavecrossed intoUgandasinceearlyJulyandapproximately32,000SouthSudanesehavearrived intotheGambellaregionofEthiopiainrecentweeks,seekingassistanceandprotection.Asof21September1,033,455SouthSudaneserefugeeshavefledtoneighboringcountries–themajorityafterDecember2013-mainlyUganda(392,630),Ethiopia(292,844),andSudan(247,317).21Thismassiveincreaseinrefugeearrivalsresultedintheneedfortheestablishmentofnewreceptioncentersandcamps. InEastDarfurState in Sudan, theauthoritiesallocated land toestablish twonewcamps for theSouthern Sudaneserefugees.22InUganda,transitcentersareincreasinglybecomingcongested,andrefugeesaretransporteddailytoexpandingsettlements.

21UNHCRSouthSudandataportal

22OCHASudan,SouthSudaneseinfluxtoEastDarfur,Issue5.

20


SOUTH SUDAN REFUGEES MOVEMENTSUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

SOUTH SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

292,885281,202

0.3%

91,11196,702

9.1%

392,63027,250

195,930105.2%

247,317194,404

27.2%

Percentage increase/decrease

Refugee population as of Sept 2016

XX%Refugee population as of Dec 2015

4,931

Sources: UNHCR portal (http://data.unhcr.org/SouthSudan/regional.php). Data includes pre and post Dec 2013. Creation date: 10 Oct 2016

1,033,455Total Refugees fromSouth Sudan

AsofAugust,thereare301,403Burundian refugeesintheregion-anincreaseof30,082fromendofJuly2016.23Thefigurehasincreaseddespitethereportedspontaneousreturnof36,798Burundianrefugeestothecountry,mostlytoMakambaprovince.24

BURUNDI REFUGEES MOVEMENT

UGANDA

BURUNDITANZANIA

DRC

RWANDA

68,22581,279

97,913165,224

Refugee population as of October 2015Percentage increase

Current refugee population (July 2016)

14,71328,543

28,90618,382

69%

XX%

94%

19%

57%

Creation date: 23 Sept 2016 Sources: UNHCR portal (http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php) www.unocha.org www.reliefweb.int

301,403Total Refugees from Burundi

23data.unhcr.org/burundi

24FollowingtheverificationexerciseinMakamba,32,729SpontaneousReturnswerereportedoutofwhommerely3,483claimedtohaveregisteredasrefugees.SeeUNHCRRegionalUpdateBurundi#28,http://data.unhcr.org/burundi/regional.php

21


REFUGEE CASELOAD

SUDAN

KENYA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI TANZANIA

DRC

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

YEMEN

SOUTH SUDANETHIOPIA

Refugee caseload as of Sept 2016


Refugees arrivals in 2016

XX%

382,239

261,280 743,732

502,194

57,827

153,341

769,539

405,307

22,397

2,303

20,091

255,158

23%10%

177%

4%

8%

1%

10%

1%

61%

6%

5%

Refugees caseload as of September 20163,575,409*

Refugees caseload as of Dec 2015


3,162,875

13%

8,604

21,010

292,352

4,464

72,600

14,316

726

-51,718

XX

7,646

Creation Date: 10 Oct 2016 SOURCES: UNHCR Global Trends 2015, UNHCR Data Portal, OCHA Reports

REFUGEE CASELOAD

20%

XX

XX

* This figure captures the rapid influx of S.Sudan refugees into Uganda in Sept 2016

43,313

-1,736

-245

CLOSURE OF DADAAB CAMPTheGovernment ofKenya announced inMay that itwill close Dadaab camp, home to over 284,000Somalirefugees,by30November2016,citingsecurity,environmentalandeconomicburdens.However,itspositionseemedtosoftenon25JunewithastatementbytheTripartiteCommission,whichinformedofareductionofthepopulationintheDadaabcampby150,000peoplebytheendof2016,asaresultofvoluntaryreturntoSomalia,relocationofnon-Somalirefugees,de-registrationofKenyancitizenswhoregisteredasrefugees,andapopulationverificationexercise.ThenumberofreturnsincreasedbetweenJune andmid August, with over 10,000 refugees returning home.25 Since the beginning of voluntaryrepatriation in 2014, over 30,000 Somalis have returned – 24,000 of them in 2016.26 However on 29August,Jubalandauthoritiesannouncedthetemporarysuspensionofvoluntaryreturnsoverthelackofabsorptioncapacityforthereturnees,notablyinalreadydenselypopulatedareas,suchasKismayo.

AccordingtoUNHCR,themajorityofSomalirefugeeshaveindicatedtheirintentiontoreturntoLowerJuba(61%),Bay(17%),MiddleJuba(9%),Banadir(9%),Gedo(4%),andotherareas(1%).Theseareasareaffectedbytheongoingconflictandtheprovisionofsocialservicesislimited.RelativestabilitywillnotbesufficienttoencourageSomalirefugeesfromDadaabtoreturnhome.AvailabilityofsocialservicesinSomalia,includingeducation,willbeessential,particularlyforthosefamilieswhosechildrenhaveaccesstoeducationinthecampinKenya.Itisalsofundamentaltothepreventingofyouthradicalization.

MIXED MIGRATIONDespite the challenges faced by refugees and migrants from the Horn of Africa, their number is increasing

25OCHASomalia,AugustHumanitarianBulletin.

26http://www.voanews.com/a/somalirefugeesleavingkenyaduetothreatsandpressureunsays/3480706.html

22


at an unprecedented rate, particularly in regards to irregular migrants arriving in Yemen.27Thenumberofestimatednewarrivalsthere inJuneandJulywere14,373and12,750respectively,constitutingthetwohighestrecordsofarrivalinonemonthsince2006whenUNHCRbegancollectingstatistics.28 These figures reflectmostly economicmigrants (and someasylum seekers) fromEthiopia (86%) followedbypeoplecomingfromSomalia(14%).29ThisspikehasbeenattributedtoageneralbeliefthatthecrossingtheborderillegallyfromYemenintoSaudiArabiaiseasierduringthemonthofRamadan,whichfelloverJune–Julythisyear,aswellasthecommonmisperceptionthatcrossingintoSaudiArabiaiseasierduetoinsecurityandlaxbordercontrolresultingfromitswarwithYemen.NewarrivalstoYemencontinuetolandbyseainrecordnumbers,andhumanitarianactorsareengagedinenhancingawarenessontherisksofmovementstoYemen,asitisnotaplaceofsafetyorsecurity.

Manyofthepeopleonthemoveleavebecauseofeconomicandclimaterelatedfactors,andtheycomprisemainlyofthefollowinggroups:Sudanese,Eritrean,andSomalinationals;andyouthgroups,mostlymale.Howeverhighnumbersofunaccompaniedchildrenarealsopartofthesepopulations’flowsandroutesi.e.eithertheEasternroutetoYemenacrosstheGulfofAden,orthenorthernroutetoEuropethroughthe Mediterranean.

ByearlyOctober,314,004refugeesandmigrantshadarrivedinEurope,ofwhom5.6percentareEritrean,2.9percentSudaneseand2.3percentSomali,accordingtotheIOMdatabase.MoremigrantsandrefugeesfromtheHornofAfricaarechoosingtouseEgyptascrossingpointratherthanLibyaduetotheprevailinginsecurityinLibyaandtheprotectionriskfacedbythemigrantsandrefugeesthere.

Refugeesandmigrantsarehighlyvulnerableandexposedtoprotectionrisksandhumanrightsviolations,oftenunprotectedby lawsoncetheycross internationalborders.Journeysformigrantscontinuetobeperilous. According to the IOMmissingmigrantswebsite, 348migrants from theHornofAfricawerereportedtohaveperishedduringtheirrespectivejourneysthisyeartodate30,andmanyothersremainunaccountedfor.AccordingtoUNHCR,80personshavebeenreportedasdrownedormissingontheirwaytoYemencrossingtheGulfofAden.Whilethemajorityofrefugeesremaindisplacedwithintheregion,manyareembarkingon thesehigh-risk journeys, crossingmultiplebordersat thehandsof smugglersandtraffickers.Theyareexposedtoprotectionriskssuchasdetention, lackofdocumentation,hunger,malnutrition,torture,kidnapping,gender-basedviolence,andviolenceatthehandsorarmedgangs,andinYemen,war.

PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS

Overview:On-goingconflictandethnically-motivatedviolenceintheEastAfricanregioncontinuestobecharacterizedbythedeliberatetargetingandharmofcivilians.Serious internationalhumanitarianandhumanrightslawviolationsareoccurringonacontinuousbasis,inaregionthatsuffersfromaclearlackofaccountabilitymechanismstoendandpreventtheoccurrenceofsuchviolationsagainstcivilians.

In Burundi,theAssociationfortheProtectionofHumanRightsandDetainees(APRODH)hasidentified

27Irregularmigrantsdonotincluderefugeeswhoarepartofthesemixedflows,andenterirregularlyalongsidemigrants.

28ThesefiguresarecollectedandcompiledbyUNHCRYemen

29http://www.regionalmms.org/monthlysummary/RMMS_Mixed_Migration_Monthly_Summary_June_2016.pdfhttp://regionalmms.org/monthlysummary/RMMS_Mixed_Migration_Monthly_Summary_July_2016.pdf

30http://missingmigrants.iom.int/latest-global-figures

23


14newmassgravesinseveralpartsofthecountry.31Civilsocietyactorsarespeculatingthatthesegravescontain the remains of those arrested or abducted by government and law enforcement forces andthe alliedmilitiaof Burundi’s ruling party’s youth league, the Imbonerakure, all ofwhich are accusedofperpetratingawiderangeofhumanrightsviolationswithimpunity.HumanRightsWatch(HWR)hasdocumentedcasesofwomenactivistsorwomenrelatedtomembersofoppositionsgroupsbeingrapedinfrontoftheirchildrenbytheImbonerakure,andinothercasesinfrontofthepolice.32Betweenmid2015andmid2016,OHCHRdocumented651casesofpoliticallymotivatedtorturebygovernmentagents(policeandthemilitaryintelligence),againstciviliansaccusedofbeingmembersofrebelandoppositiongroups.33 Since the endof July, children living in the streets havebeen subjected to arrest, detentionandforcedreturntotheirhomevillages,withnoreintegrationplanandsupport.UNICEFandpartnersdocumented75suchcases,primarilyboysinBujumburaMairie,NgoziandGitegaprovinces.Throughthetechnicalcommitteeonchildrenlivinginthestreets,collaborationwithgovernmentofficialsisongoingtolocatethechildren,provideappropriateprotectionsupport.UNICEFpartners(FENADEBandTerredesHommes),havesofarsecuredthereleaseof22boys.

In Ethiopia,protestsinAmharaandOromiaregionshadhadanimpactonthedeliveryoffoodassistance.Therearereportsofcasualtiesamongprotestorsandsecurityforces.OHCHRhascalledupontheEthiopiangovernmenttopermitthedeploymentofindependentobserversintothecountrytoassessthehumanrightssituation.34On9OctobertheGovernmentofEthiopiadeclareda6-monthsStateofEmergency.

In South Sudan,therecontinuetobereportsofgraveviolationsofinternationalhumanitarianandhumanrights law against civilians, including killings, rape, abduction, and recruitment of children by armedactors.MedicinssansFrontieres(MSF)hasprotestedagainstthepreventionofciviliansaccessinghealthfacilitiesinLeer,WauandtheEquatorias.35UNICEFhasannouncedthat650childrenhavebeenrecruitedas child soldiers by different armed groups since the beginning of 2016, in addition to approximately16,000childrenwhohavebeenrecruitedsincetheconflictbrokeoutin2013.36Some8,971childreninthecountryhavebeenidentifiedbeingunaccompaniedandseparatedchildren(UASC)-andhavingbeenforciblyseparatedfromtheirfamilies.

AccordingtotheUNSecretaryGeneral’sreportonconflict-relatedsexualviolence,humanrightsmonitorsdocumented 194 incidents of conflict-related sexual violence affecting 280 persons in 2015; amongsurvivorswhoreportedtoserviceproviders,25%werechildren.Alarmingreportsofsexualviolence,suchasrape,gangrapeandsexualslavery,continuetoemerge,particularly inJuba,southernUnity,andenroutetoUgandainthewakeoftherecentfighting.However,thedocumentedcasesdonotcapturethefullscaleoftheproblem,duetothemanybarrierssurvivorsfaceiftheytrytoseekhelp.WomenobligedtoleaveProtectionofCivilian(PoC)sitesduetoshortagesoffoodandfirewoodareparticularlyatrisk.WomenandgirlsinIDPlocationsalsofaceincreasedrisksofGBVlinkedtocongestionandpoorlydesignedfacilities,suchaslatrines.

In Sudan, the IndependentExpertonthesituationofhumanrights, inhisreporttotheHumanRightsCouncil in July 2016, expressed concerns about continuing human rights challenges, including humanrightsviolationsandabusesinconflict-affectedareas(theJebelMarraareaofDarfurandtheTwoAreas),

31http://www.ibtimes.co.in/rightsgroupclaimstohavediscovered14massgravesacrossburundi691250

32https://www.hrw.org/sites/default/files/supporting_resources/burundi_compendium_2016_web_version_4.pdf

33OHCHR,17June2016,apportannuelduHaut-CommissairedesNationsUniesauxdroitsdel’hommeetrapportsduHaut-Commissariatauxdroitsdel’hommeetduSecrétairegénéral

34http://www.ohchr.org/EN/NewsEvents/Pages/DisplayNews.aspx?NewsID=20396&LangID=E

35http://www.msf.org/en/article/south-sudan-access-essential-healthcare-dramatically-reduced-due-increased-violence

36http://reliefweb.int/report/south-sudan/hundreds-children-recruited-armed-groups-south-sudan-violations-against-women-and

24


perpetratedbybothStateandnon-Stateactors.Compoundedbyinter-communalclashes,thishasresultedin large-scaledisplacementof civilians and relatedPoC concerns regardingdisplacedpersons.Healsopointedoutagrowingconcernaboutthe“pervasiveactions”of theNational IntelligenceandSecurityServicethatareexemplifiedbywidespreadreportsofarbitraryarrestsandincommunicadodetentions

FOOD INSECURITY AND MALNUTRITION

Overview: The number of food insecure people in the region facing Crisis and Emergency (IPC 3 and 4) levels, and who are in urgent need of assistance, has doubled in the last 12 months from 11 million in September 2015 to 23.4 million people currently.TheworstaffectedcountriesareEthiopia(9.7millionpeople),SouthSudan(4.79millionpeople),andSudan(4.42millionpeople).Keyareasofconcernarethepreviouslydrought-strickenpartsofEthiopia,Sudan,Somalia, SouthSudan,Burundi,Djibouti,andKaramojaregioninUganda.

Thefoodsecuritysituationislikelytofurtherdeterioratethroughtheendoftheyear.GHACOFprojectsbelowaveragerainfall intheeasternagro-pastoralsectorcoveringSomalia,Djibouti,partsofEthiopia,Kenya,Uganda,andSouthSudan.Aboveaveragerainfallisexpectedinthewesternsector,whichmayleadtofloodingandlandslidesinwesternpartsofUganda,Ethiopia,andKenya,aswellasinthevastmajorityofSouthSudanareas.

UNICEFreportsaheightenedmalnutritionsituationintheregionincludinganunprecedentednutritioncrisis inSouthSudan.Sixoutof theeight IGADcountries in theregion (SouthSudan,Sudan,Ethiopia,Eritrea,Somalia(IDPs),andpartsofKenya)areonhighalertforacutemalnutrition.SouthSudan,NorthWestKenya(Turkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit)andSomalia(inparticularIDPsites)havecontinuedtoexperienceaseriousnutritionaldeterioration,whilstinEthiopia,highnumbersofpeoplecontinuetobeadmittedforacutemalnutrition,althoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimprovedduetotheaveragetoaboveBelg harvest.

FOOD INSECURITYIn Ethiopia,despiterecentimprovementsduetoanaveragetoaboveaverageBelgharvest,9.7millionremainfoodinsecure.37WiththeJunetoSeptemberrainson-goingandfloodingincreasingvulnerabilityinmidandlowerareasofthecountry,afurtherdeclineinfoodinsecurityisexpectedaftertheMeherharvestinOctober/November 2016.However,many of the areasworst-affected by the 2015 ElNiño-induceddroughtwillcontinuetoexperienceCrisis(IPCPhase3)outcomes,atleastthroughSeptember2016,ashouseholdscontinuetofacesignificantdifficultyinmeetingtheirbasicfoodneeds.Furthermore,Southernpastoralandagro-pastoralareasofEthiopiariskexperiencingbelow-averagerainfallinthelastquarterof2016.Thismayleadtoanearlierandworsethannormaldeteriorationoflivestockbodyconditionsandlivestockproductivity.AccordingtoUNICEF,thenumberofPriority1hotspotshavereducedto206(from219 inMarch2016).However,highadmissions foracutemalnutritioncontinuealthough thenutritionsituationhasslightlyimproved.Inaddition,anestimated4millionchildren(anincreasefrom1.3millioninJanuary2016)willrequireschoolfeedingforthenewacademicyearstartinginSeptember2016.

37Mid-YearReviewoftheHumanitarianRequirementsDocument,Aug2016

25


FOOD INSECURITY

Food security condition1: None or Minimal2: Stressed3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/FamineNo data

Estimated number of food insecurepopulation as of Dec 2015

Estimated number of food insecurepopulation by early 2016.

XX

Current number of food insecurepopulationXX

XX

Food security condition1: None or Minimal2: Stressed3: Crisis4: Emergency5: Catastrophe/FamineNo data

Estimated number of food insecurepopulation as of D

Estimated number of food insecurepopulation

XX

Current number of food insecurepopulationXX

XX

Food security map (April-June 2016)

Food security map (June - September 2016)

SOMALIA

SUDAN

KENYAUGANDA

SOUTH SUDANETHIOPIA

DRC

DJIBOUTI0.27M

0.64M

4.42M

4.79M

0.39M

0.95M

2.29MBURUNDI

4.46M

10.2M

ERITREA

Creation date: 10 Oct 2016 Sources: FSNWG Monthly Update: Food & Nutrition Security Situation, FEWSNET

9.7M

1.25M

0.39M

4.42M

4.79M

1.5M

0.27M

5.90M

SOMALIA

SUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

SOUTH SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

DRC

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

BURUNDIRWANDA

1.1M

Source: FEWSNET: http://www.fews.net/east-africa/key-message-update/august-2016-0

26


FOOD INSECURE POPULATION (‘000)

0

5m

10m

15m

20m

25mSOMDJIBDI

SSD

SUD

UGAKEN

ETH

SEP-16JUL-16APR-16FEB-16DEC-15NOV-15OCT-15SEP-15

UGAKENDRCETHSOMSUDBURDJISSD

37.2% 29.9% 12.9%2.6% 1.0%

10.7% 9.9% 9.5%

7.3%

Food Insecure population as percentage of total population as of Sep 2016

Population in IPC Phase 3&4 (Sep 2015 - Sep 2016)

South Sudanfacesitsworstfoodinsecuritysituationsincetheoutbreakoftheconflictin2013with4.8 million people facing Crisis and Emergency levels of food insecurityasof theendof July2016.FoodpricesinsomeareashavemorethandoubledbetweenJuneandJuly2016.LargeareasofGreaterUpperNileandGreaterBahrelGhazalregionsfaceEmergency(IPCPhase4)foodinsecurity.InNorthernBahrelGhazalsorghumpricesinAweilwere1,099percentabovethefive-yearaverageinlateAugust,reflectingthegravityofthesituation.Malnutritionhasincreasedbeyondemergencythresholds(above15percent)inallstatesexceptCentralEquatoriaandLakesandthesituationisexpectedtodeterioratefurtherinthecomingmonths.AccordingtotheNutritionCluster,thenationalaverageGlobalAcuteMalnutrition(GAM)ratesis18.1percent;thehighestratesfoundinNorthernBahrelGhazal(33.3percent),UnityState(26.2percent),WarrapState(23.1percent),andWesternBahrelGhazalState(20.6percent).More than 4.4 million people in Sudan faced Crisis and Emergency food insecuritylevelsbyJuly2016,exacerbatedbythe2015ElNiño-relateddroughtandprotractedconflictresultingindisplacementandthedisruptionof livelihoodsandmarkets.Despite recentflooding inKassala, Sennar, SouthKordofan,WestKordofanandNorthDarfur states thataffected160,000people, rainsduring themainseason insummer 2016 are expected to contribute to better production prospects. As a result food security isexpectedtoimprovewiththecomingharvestforthosewhoselivelihoodsarenotseverelyconstrainedbyconflict.UNICEFreportsahigherpeakinsevereacutemalnutrition(SAM)admissionsinJanuary-June2016comparedtothesameperiodin2015andtheMinistryofHealthrecordedthehighestSAMrates(7percent)inEastDarfurStateasofJuly2016.ThisincludesSouthSudaneserefugeechildren.

In Somalia, as of August 2016, 1.1 million people were facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels (IPC3and4)especiallyfromamongtheprotractedIDPcaseloadwithseverelyconstrainedfoodsecurityand income opportunities. An additional 3.9million people require livelihood support. A significantlybelowaverage2016Guharvest(whichaccountsfor75percentoftotalannualproduction)duetobelowaverageanderraticrains fromApril-June2016affected foodavailabilityandtranslated into foodpriceincreases, including inHiraanwherefloodsdestroyedmorethan80percentofcrops. Inaddition,theupcomingDeyrrains(whichaccountfor25percentofannualproduction)arelikelytobebelowaverage.It isalarmingthatagropastoralareas(north-west,southandcentral regions)havefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015withacorrespondingnegativeimpactonfoodsecurityconditions.Poorruralhouseholdsintheseareasareheavilydependentonmarkets,whicharevulnerabletodisruption

27


causedbyconflict,civilinsecurityandsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiesfromtheworldmarket.AccordingtoFEWSNET,foodsecurityisexpectedtodeterioratethroughoutmuchofSomaliafromOctober2016toJanuary2017,especiallyinthepastoralandagropastoralareasthathavebeenaffectedbypoorseasonalperformancesinceMarch2016.UNICEFwarnsthatSomaliaisina‘sustained’criticalsituation,andincreasedmonitoring(duetothebelowaverageGuharvestandlikelybelowaverageDeyrrains)hasindicatedcriticalnutritionlevelsinsixoutofthetwelveIDPcampssurveyed,whiletheresultsfromtherestofthecountryhavenotyetbeenreleased.

In Kenya, food insecurity has more than doubled - from 600,000 (Aug 2015 - March 2016) to 1.25 million people (August 2016 – Feb 2017)accordingtotheresultsoftherecentjointshortrainsassessmentreport.Themain drivers of food insecurity are below-average 2016 long rains characterised by poor spatial-temporaldistribution, livestockandcroppestanddiseases;andelevatedfoodprices.AccordingtotheAugust2016MinistryofHealth(MOH)report,thenumberofchildrenrequiringtreatmentforSAMwashighestinTurkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabitcounties.

In Burundi 1.5 million people (including 400,000 severely food insecure), face Crisis and Emergency food insecuritylevels,despitefairseasonBharvestsinthecountry.Foodpricesareexpectedtoincreasewiththeforthcomingleanseasonasofmid-September2016largelyduetofoodunavailability,currencydevaluationandinflation.UNICEFreportsrisingadmissionfiguresforchildrensufferingSAM.

In Uganda, as of August 2016 the number of people facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels stood at 392,909duetothepoorperformanceofthelongrainswhichledtobelowaverageharvests,foodunavailabilityinthemarketsandincreasingfoodprices.InKaramojaregion,theJune2016FoodSecurityNeedsAssessment(FSNA)reportfound50percentofthepopulationtobefoodinsecure(12percentseverely);whileWFPandUNICEFreportthedistrictsshowingthehighestmalnutritionratesare:Moroto(GAM13.7andSAM3.4percent),Kotido(GAM12.1andSAM3.5percent)andNapak(GAM13.6andSAM2.5percent)districts. Itshouldbenotedthathighstuntinglevels(over30percent) inthesamedistricts indicatechronicunder-nutritionrequiringtheneedformulti-sectoral, long-terminterventions.Mosthouseholdslackappropriatestoragefacilitiesleadingtoincreasedpost-harvestlosses,whichfurtheraffectsfoodavailability. In Djibouti, as of August 2016, some 270,000 people were facing Crisis and Emergency food insecurity levels following two seasons of induced dry conditions in southeastern pastoral areas (Dikhil and AliSabieh)andObockpastoralareas.DespitegoodMarch-JuneDiraac/Sugumrains,whichgenerallyimprovedpasture,livestockbodyconditionsandproductivityinthecountry,pastureconditionsdidnotfullyrecoverintheseareas.TheJuly-SeptKaran/Karmarainsareexpectedtoimprovethesituationfurther,butwiththecontinuingleanseason(June-September),poorruralandurbanhouseholdsmayfinditincreasinglydifficulttoaccessdailywage/labouropportunities.Familiesareextremelyvulnerableasaresultofdroughtconditionsthathavepersistedsince2007andthelossoflivelihoodsthishascaused.Thecountrysuffersfromlimitedcopingoptions,highfoodprices,inadequateaccesstobasicwater,sanitationservicesandhealthcare;anda social safetynetprogrammewithvery limitedcoverage. In its2016appeal,UNICEFreportsthatmalnutritionamongchildrenunderfiveisa“silentemergency”inDjibouti.Anestimated17.8percentofchildrenunder-5yearsofagearewastedand5.7percentsufferfromSAM(abovetheWHOemergencythresholdsofrespectively15and3percent).

MALNUTRITIONIn Ethiopia,highadmissionsforacutemalnutritioncontinuealthoughthenutritionsituationhasslightlyimproved due to the average to above Belg harvest, and priority 1 hotspots reduced to 206. Whiletheestimatednumberofchildren that require treatment forsevereacutemalnutrition (SAM) in2016decreasedfrom458,000to420,000andthoseinneedoftreatmentformoderateacutemalnutritionfrom

28


2.5millionto2.36million,supportforthecontinuumofcareremainscriticaltoavoidincreasedmorbidityandmortality.

KenyasawadeteriorationofthenutritionsituationinTurkana,WestandEastPokot,TanaRiver,Garissa,ManderaandMarsabit.ResultsoftheGovernment-ledmulti-agencyLongRainsAssessment(LRA)releasedon12thAugust2016indicatethattheoverallcaseloadsofacutelymalnourishedchildrenhasincreasedby19percentcomparedtosixmonthsago(from266,100inFebruary2016to337,300inAugust2016).

Somaliaisinasustainedcriticalsituation,withincreasedmonitoringduetothebelowaverageGu harvest andlikelybelowaverageDeyr rains. The post Guassessmentindicatedcriticalnutritionlevelsin6outofthe12IDPcampssurveyed,whiletheresultsfromtherestofthecountryhavenotbeenreleasedyet.

South Sudansawaseriousdeteriorationofthenutritionsituationinthelastmonths.ThelastfoodsecurityandnutritionmonitoringsystemindicatedthatJonglei,EasternEquatoria,UpperNile,WesternBahrelGazalandWarraphaveamalnutritionprevalenceabovetheemergencylevelof15percent,Unity26.2percentandNorthernBahrelGazal33.3percent.Thisisconsistentwithincreasedadmissioninnutritionprogrammingandnutrition surveys conducted (24outof 29 surveys conducted in 2016where abovetheemergencylevel).Over362,000childrenareestimatedtobesufferingfromSAMduetothesteadilydeterioratingfoodinsecurity,displacement,andthedestructionofhealth,waterandsanitationfacilities,alongwithunderlyingissuesofsub-optimalinfantandyoungchildfeeding(IYCF)practices.

Sudansawanearlierandhigherpeakinadmissionsduringtheleanseasoncomparedtopreviousyears,includingmalnutritionadmissionsofalmost50percenthigher thanthesameperiod in JuneandJulyinWestDarfurStateincomparisontothesameperiodin2015.38KaramojainUgandasawmalnutritionprevalencethatremainedalertlevelduringthelastassessment.

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Overview: Simultaneous disease outbreaks have affected the region in parallel with the El Niño weather events. The biggest health concerns in the region at the present time are Cholera and Acute Watery diarrhoea (AWD). Inadditiontothis, simultaneousdiseaseoutbreaks, includingyellowfever,measles,andChikungunyavirus,havefurtherchallengedtheregions’alreadyoverstretchedhealthcarefacilities.Furthermore,spikesinmalariacaseshavealsobeenreportedinBurundi,easternDRCandinSouthSudan,whereisthetopcauseofmorbidityintheIDPsandinthenon-conflictaffectedstateswith1.3mncasesreportedthisyear.

Complexcross-bordermobilitydynamicsandBordercommunitiesengageindailycrossingsfortradeandlivelihoodspurposesmakeoutbreakresponsechallenging,ifnotwellmonitored,couldmakethespreadofoutbreakarealthreat.Establishingeffectivebordermanagementmechanismsthatallowfreeofhumanmobilitywouldfacilitatedetectionofsuchoutbreakspriortoawidespread.

38OCHASudan,WeeklyHumanitarianBulletin,Issue34.

29


COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Malaria: 1.3 Million

Yellow Fever: 731 16Cholera: 18,102 500Measles:10,073 143

DRC

Malaria: 5.4 MillionCholera: 285

BURUNDI

RWANDA

TANZANIA

Cholera: 16,805

Cholera: 156

UGANDA KENYA

AWD: 12,000

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

SUDAN ERITREA

Cholera: 2,143 31

Cholera: 13,553 498

Source: WHO,UNOCHA

Disease: Cases xx Deaths xxCOUNTRY

SOUTH SUDAN

DRC

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

KENYA

BURUNDI

Cholera: 176DJIBOUTI

DJIBOUTI

SOUTH SUDAN

Communicable Diseases

Cholera:Less than 500500 - 2500More than 2500No data

Malaria

Yellow Fever

Measles

Theimpactoftheseoutbreaksandthehighriskofcontagionintheregionrequiresappropriateinterventionsonkeyissues,suchas:vaccinationcampaigns,scaleupaccesstosafedrinkingwater,andsanitationandhygieneservices,andcommunitysensitizationincludingsettingacross-bordercoordinationmechanism,improvingsystemsofprevention,surveillance,controlandtreatmentofdisease.

Amulti-agencysub-regionalresponseplanisraisingfundstoaddressthecholeraandchikungunyavirusoutbreaks and their risk factors in theMandera Triangle (Mandera Kenya, Belet Haawo Somalia andDolloAdoEthiopia).Theplanrequires$20millionforimmediate,mediumandlong-termmulti-sectoralapproachesbetweenSeptember2016andSeptember2018.

CHOLERA AND ACUTE WATERY DIARRHEA (AWD)There have been 63,22039 suspected cases of AWD, Cholera, or both, recorded in the region since the start of the year to date.ActivetransmissionofthediseaseisongoinginEthiopia,Kenya,SomaliaandSouthSudanandTanzania.InJulyandAugust2016,choleraoutbreaksweredeclaredinBurundi,SouthSudanandUganda.AsofendofSeptember,285casesincluding1fatalitywerereportedin6outof18healthdistrictsinBurundi.

In Ethiopia,more than9,000casesofAWDhavebeen reported infive regions sinceNovember2015,including in Addis Ababa, as of June 2016. Preparedness and response efforts have contributed toreducedmortalitywithaCFRof0.53percent,belowtheemergencythresholdof1percent.However,the likelihoodof transmissionremainshighgiventheLaNiñaeffect,seasonalfloodingandpopulationmovements,includingtherecentinfluxofrefugeesfromSouthSudan.Thebeginningoftheschoolyearwaspostponedto28September(3weeksdelay)duetotheriskofaspreadofAWD.AspertheFederal39Includes18,102casesinDRC

30


MinistryofHealth,aworst-casescenariowouldconsistof35,000peopleaffectedbyAWDuntiltheendof2016,with9.8millionpeopleatrisk.

AsofearlyAugust2016,Kenyareported16,805choleracaseswithaCFRof1.5percent.Allagegroupshavebeenaffected,withthemajorityofcasesbeingrecordedamongthe6to15years-old.ThenumberofreportedcaseshasbeenonthedeclineduringAugust,andisnowlimitedtoManderaandTanaRiverCounties.HoweverKenyacontinuestofaceconsiderableriskofnownewcasesinborderareasgivenfluidpopulationmovementsincludinginareasborderingSomaliaandEthiopia,andthescarcityofwaterduetodrought.

AsofendofSeptember,2,143choleracasesincluding31deaths(CFR1.58%)havebeenreportedinSouth Sudan.Atotalof1,724cases, including12deaths(CFR0.69%)havebeenreportedinJubaCounty;20casesand8deathshavebeenreportedinTerekekaCountyinCentralEquatoria;77suspectedcasesand8deathsinfivesettlementareasinDukCounty,Jonglei;114casesandtwodeathsinAwerialCounty;and27casesandonedeathinPageriCounty.

SinceJanuary2016,over14,000caseswerereportedinSomalia,including498deathsin25districtsinsouthernandcentralSomalia.Ofthese,58percentwerechildren.Asignificantdropfromnearly4,000casesinAprilto800inAugusthasbeenreported,followingarobustandtimelyresponsebypartners.CFRstandsat3.7percent,wellabovethe1percentemergencythreshold.Childrenunderfivebearthebiggestbrunt;accordingtoWHO,childrenaccountfor58percentofthecases.Ofallcases,47.3percentwerewomenandgirls(6,178cases).Banadir,Bay,LowerandMiddleJuba,LowerandMiddleShabelle,andHiraanarethemostaffectedregions.

BetweenOctober2015andmid-August,Ugandareported,3,077casesofcholerafrom32districtswithaCFRof3.1percent.Ofthese,45caseshavebeenidentifiedinUganda(44SouthSudaneserefugeesandoneUgandannational),ofwhich42havesuccessfullyreceivedtreatmentandbeendischarged.Congestioninthetransitcentresisoverstretchingsanitationandotherfacilitiesandservicesandpresentingamajorriskofafurtherthetransmissionofcholera.Thehousesofthosewhocontractthediseasearebeingdisinfectedandtheirwatersupplydrainedtopreventfurtherinfection.Adoor-to-doorawareness-raisingcampaignisongoing.Thesaleoffreshproduceatmarketsandalongroadsideshasbeentemporarilyprohibited.ACholeraTaskForcehasbeenestablishedinAdjumanichairedbytheResidentDistrictCommissioner.OralrehydrationsaltshavealsobeenprepositionedinPagirinyaincaseoffurthercases.Continuedsurveillanceandmonitoringofrefugeehealthremainsatoppriority.

In Djibouti,followinganoutbreakofseverediarrheathestateofemergencywasdeclaredbytheMinistryofHealthon8September.On13thofSeptember,therewere176migrantsattheIOMMigrationResponseCenter(MRC)inObockwithhalfofthemundertreatment.7outof32newcasesdiagnosedwerechildren.4outofnewarrivalsareaffectedbydiarrhea.Additionalcasesofseverediarrheawerereportedinothervillages of Orobory, near Obock and in the zone of Fantaherou. One death was registered. The IOMrapidresponseteamandtheequippedvehiclewassenttoObockon6thOctoberwithfoodssupplies,decontaminationmaterials,andchlorinetabletsprovidedbyINSPD(InstituteofPublicofDjibouti).TheoutbreakwascontrolledincollaborationwithMoH.

YELLOW FEVERYellowfevercontinuestobeacontinentalthreat,withmajoroutbreaksinAngolaandDRC,whereover18millionvaccineshavebeendeliveredtodate.WHOhaswarnedthattheglobalstockpileofvaccinesmaynotbe sufficient if simultaneousoutbreakshithighdensitypopulatedareas. InDRC, focusingoncross-borderareaswithAngola IOMstartedanemergencyresponse foryellowfever throughtargetedvaccinationandotherpublichealthmeasures.TheinterventionsfundedbyGovernmentofJapanunderemergencyfundswillsupportDRCforthenextsixmonthstorespondtotheoutbreak.Withthepresence

31


ofAedesAegyptimosquitoesinEthiopia,KenyaandSomalia,thereisadangerofyellowfeveroutbreaksspreadingwithin theEasternAfrica regionaswell.Ugandahasalready reported casesof thedisease,althoughthesehavebeencontrolled.

IV. CONSTRAINTS TO RESPONSE

HUMANITARIAN ACCESS

Overview: Access to beneficiaries and humanitarian space across the region is shrinking. This is evident in Somalia,Sudan,andSouthSudan,butisalsothecaseinEthiopia,Burundi,andDRC.Themainimpedimenttothetimelydeliveryofhumanitarianassistancetopeopleinneedremainsinsecurity,withanincreasingnumberofattacksperpetratedagainsthumanitarianworkersandassets.Thesecondmajorobstacle isthe growing number of bureaucratic impediments being introduced across the region, particularly inSouth Sudan and Sudan. Interference in humanitarian operations, illegal taxation, delays of visas andtravel permits, are just someof theobstacles facinghumanitarianorganizations in the region.Accessimpedimentsarenotexpectedtodecreaseoverthecomingmonths,inlightoftheon-goingprotractedconflicts; stalled,and/or fragilepeaceprocesses (Sudan,SouthSudan,Burundi);widespreadeconomiccrises(SouthSudan);andgrowingpoliticalinstability(Somaliaelections).

VIOLENCE AGAINST HUMANITARIAN PERSONNEL, ASSETS AND FACILITIESIn Somalia, during the first sevenmonths of 2016 alone, over 90 violent incidents directly impactedhumanitarianorganizationswerereported,accountingfor7fatalities,8injuries,10arrests,3abductionsand5physicalassaultsanddetentionsofhumanitarianworkers.Atleasthalfofthefatalitiesofhumanitarianworkersrecordedin2016occurredcollaterallywhenstaffmemberswerecaughtupinattacksonpopulatedplaces.AdeadlybombattackinMogadishuon26Julyledtothedeathofahumanitarianworkeralongwith13othersinabombattackinapublicspace.Atleast11UNcontractedsecuritypersonnelwerealsokilledand12sustainedinjuries.TheexplosionalsocauseddamagestoUNstructures.RemoteviolenceincludingmortarbombattacksagainsttheUNwasrecordedinJuly.

Datamadeavailableduringthereportingperiodindicatedthat,in2015,South SudanovertookAfghanistanasthecountrywiththehighestnumberofattacksagainstaidworkers.InSouthSudan,violenceagainstpersonnelandassets,includingambushes,looting,andburglariesandtheftofpersonalbelongingsandvehicles,hasbeenamajoraccessconstraintsincethebeginningof2016,with66reportedincidentsinJulyalone.Duringthefighting,whicheruptedinthecapitalJubaon7-11July,onehumanitarianworkerwaskilled,andhumanitarianworkerswererapedandbeatenduringtheattackontheTerrainHotel.

Thisviolencehashadatremendouseffectonhumanitarianoperations,asWFPandFAOwarehousesandseveralNGOs compoundswere looted throughout the country.40 Violence is also closely linked to thedeterioratingeconomicsituation-inmanycasestheattacksareperpetuatedbyhungrysoldiers.

In Darfur, Sudan,18incidentsagainsthumanitarianorganisationsandUNAMIDwerereportedinJulyand21inAugust,ofwhich2wereagainsthumanitarianorganisations(bothinAugust).Duringthefirsteightmonthsof2016,116 incidentswerereported,ofwhich17 involvedhumanitarianactors.Themajorityof the incidents (85percent) involvedUNAMID,however, it isnotable thatUNAMIDstaffpresence is

40http://www.unocha.org/south-sudan

32


aboutfivetimeshigherthaninternationalorganisationstaffpresence(UNAMIDauthorisedfullpresenceis23,74341and4,446staffwereworkingforinternationalorganisationsasofJune201642).MostincidentswerereportedinNorthDarfur.Asaresult,1personwaskilled,18wereinjuredand1waskidnapped,andasubstantialnumberofassets(64)weredamagedorremoved.Thenumberof incidentsreportedpermonthwassignificantlyhigherbetweenAprilandAugustthanduringthefirstthreemonthsoftheyear.Withthestallingofthepeaceprocess,thisnumberisnotexpectedtodeclineinthecomingmonths.

ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS IN EASTERN AFRICA (2009 - SEPTEMBER 2016)

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SUDAN

ETHIOPIA

CHAD

KENYA

SOMALIA

YEMEN

DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF THE CONGO

LIBYA

SOUTH SUDAN

EGYPT

UGANDA


ERITREA

CENTRAL AFRICAN REPUBLIC

BURUNDI

RWANDA

DJIBOUTI

2

42

51

6

16

81

138

59

2

Total kidnappedTotal woundedTotal killed

LEGEND^ 2013 - 2014 Events^ 2015 - Date Events

XX Total affected

Source: Aid workers security database for the map. OCHA for the trend graph. Creation date: 28 Sept 2016

VIOLENT ATTACK AGAINST AID WORKERS

147 Total killed

181 Total wounded

100 Total kildnapped

7

3

23

18

22

1821

0

5

10

15

20

25

Feb March April May June July AugustSudan (Darfur)

6860

48

7864

90 89

0

20

40

60

80

100

Feb March April May June July AugustSouth Sudan

Access incidents in Sudan(Darfur) and South Sudan by month

ATTACKS ON AID WORKERS IN EASTERN AFRICA (2009 - SEPTEMBER 2016)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 As of Sept2016

Killed Wounded Kidnapped Total

Attacks on aid workers in Eastern Africa (2009 - September 2016)

Inci

dent

s

Tota

l affe

cted

Source: AWSD (https://aidworkersecurity.org/incidents)

41UNAMID

42OCHASudan,PresenceofAidWorkersinInternationalOrganisations(June2016)

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BUREAUCRATIC IMPEDIMENTSIn South Sudan,theenactmentoftheNGOActandSouthSudanReliefandRehabilitationCommission(SSRRC)Act in February2016has resulted inamore restrictedand controlledhumanitarian space. InJune2016, theRRC introduced the requirement toobtain aRRC clearance letter for allmovementofhumanitarian goodsby roadout of Juba, coupledwith a clearance letter fromSPLA. This has alreadycaused delays and disruptions in the delivery of humanitarian assistance. Humanitarian partners alsocontinuetofacerestrictionsonmovement,despiteassurancesreceivedfromtheGovernment,includingrepeateddenialswhenattemptingtodeliverassistanceoutsideofWautown.

In Sudan, thenumberofNGOsoperatingonthegroundhasdecreased43,ashastheirscopeofaction.NGOsare subsequently submittinga reducednumberofaccessapplications seeminglyas self-limitingpracticestriggeredbytheincreasingbureaucraticimpediments.44InMarch,AprilandMay2016,almosthalfoforganizations(48percent)operatinginDarfur,forexample,reportedbeingunabletocompleteallplannedmissionsduetoaccessconstraints.Compoundedbythereductionofcapacityandpresenceofaidworkersandfunding,accesschallengeshavereducedthereachofhumanitarianassistanceinthecountry.Cross-lineaccesstothenon-governmentcontrolledareasofSouthKordofan,BlueNilehasbeenimpossible since 2011 and JebelMarra inDarfur, havenot received aid.While s scopingmissionwasundertakenwithGovernmentofficialsitistobeseenhowthisscopingmissionmayenablethedeliveryofaidtotheaffectedpeopleintheJebelMarra.Meanwhile,IDPverificationsinNorthDarfurhavebeenputonholdfollowingaGoSdecisioninFebruary2016.

In Somalia,non-statearmedactorshavecontinuedtotargetlocalpopulations,imposingheavytaxesonallproductiveassets,includingfarmlands,crops,fruittreesandlivestock.Thishasreducedtheabilityofthepopulationtopurchaseessentialcommodities.Roadblocksandcheckpointsinsouth-centralSomalia,andinthecontestedBuuhoodledistrictinthenorth,mannedbyarmedactors,continuetoseverelyhamperthe delivery of humanitarian assistance. The threemain roadsmost affected in Somalia remainBeletWeyne-Burlo Burte-Mogadishu, Mogadishu-Baidoa-Doolow and Mogadishu-Barawe-Kismayo. Attacksaredirectedatbothhumanitarianandcommercialtrucks,andincludethepaymentofillegaltaxations,and extrusion and violence against personnel, including summary executions. Road access limitationsincreaseoperationalandtransportationcostsforhumanitarianagenciesdeliveringfoodtoaffectedareas,withsomeconflict-affectedlocationsonlyreachablebyplane.Theattacksalsoincreasecommercialfoodpricesastraderstransferthehighcostofoperatingininsecureareastoconsumers,furtheraffectingthe

43Therearecurrently54internationaland73nationalorganizationsoperatinginDarfur,and144internationaland6,488nationalstaff.Priortothe2009expulsionof13INGOs,therewere17,700nationalandinternationalaidworkersininternationalorganizationsinDarfur,comparedtocurrently4,446aidworkers(adecreaseofover75percent)ofwhom97percentarenationalstaff.

44Sincetheadoptionofthe“2016DirectivesandProceduresforHumanitarianAction”travelpermitstotheDarfurregionareissuedonlyforamaximumdurationofsixmonths,andinstancesofattemptedimpositionofspecificnationaloperatingpartnershavebeenrecorded.Travelpermitstoareasoutsidethestatecapitalsremainedchallengingduetoamongotherissues,thelackofstatelevelproceduralframeworksclearlyprescribingtimeframesandrolesofdifferentauthorities.

Rebel-heldareasinJebelMarraremainedcutoff.SincethebeginningoftheJebelMarrahostilities,accesstocertainareasinDarfurhasbeenrestricted,includingThur,Deribat,Golo,Guldo,andRokero.FurthercomplicatingaccesstoJebelMarrawasthedecisiontohandleaccessrequeststocertainlocationsinJebelMarrathroughHACatthefederallevel.Thehumanitariancommunitymadenumerousattempts,withoutsuccess,toconductcomprehensivemulti-sectorassessmentmissionstoaffectedlocationsincluding,Guldo,Golo,Thur,BooriandWadiBoori.Whereaccesswaspermitted,tightcontrolmeasuresaffectedtheabilitytoconductindependentassessmentsanddeliverassistance.Forexample,on3August,afieldvisittoGolo,ledbytheDeputyHumanitarianCoordinatorforDarfur,withtheparticipationofUNAMID,UNCTmembersandGovernmentrepresentativesfromfederalandlocallevels,waspermittedonlyafewhoursontheground.

WhileanemergencyfooddistributionwascarriedoutbyWFPinFangaSuk,NertitiandThur,lackofaccessandadministrativerestrictions,preventedfooddistributioninGuldo,RokoroorGolo,anddelayedNFIdistributioninGuldotownandThurvillage.

34


population’saccesstocommodities.TheMinistryofHealth(MoH)inBurundiisdemandingallhealthsuppliestobeplacedundertheMoH,withhighcharges,andwhichmaycompromisethecapacityforaquickreaction.

FUNDING

Overview: Bothclimate-inducedhumanitarianneedsandconflict-induceddisplacementcontinuetobeunderfunded.Asof30September,US$6.7billion45isneededtomeeturgenthumanitarianneedsacrosstheregion,ofwhichonly48percentisfunded.ThelargestappealsisforEthiopia:TheEthiopiaMid-YearReviewoftheHumanitarianRequirementsDocument(HRD)isseekingUS$1.6bntorespondtotheneedsofthe9.7millionpeopleaffectedbyElNiño.

Despite the large numbers of refugees, the RefugeeResponse Plans (RRPs) are still theworst fundedhumanitarianappealsintheregion.AsofmidSeptember,theRRPsforSouthSudan,BurundiandYementogetherrequirenearly$1.2billion,ofwhichonly24percenthasbeenfunded.TheSouthSudanRefugeePlanhasthelowestfundinglevelat20percent,whiletheYemenRRPreceived27percentbytheendofSeptember.

CERF AND POOLED FUNDSTheEasternAfricaregionisoneofthelargestrecipientsofCERFfunding:sixcountriesintheHornandGreatLakesregioncomprisenearly31percentofallCERFallocationsoverthepastdecade.In2016,theregionreceivedover$131millioninCERFfunding,andSudanisthelargestrecipientgloballywith$24million.Fiveofthecountriesinthetop10CERFrecipientsof2016arefromthisregion:Sudan$25million,SouthSudan$21mn,Uganda$18mn,Burundi$13mnandSomalia$13mn.

CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016

2006 – 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS:

COUNTRY RR UF TOTAL

CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016:

DJIBOUTI

ETHIOPIA

SUDAN

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

BURUNDI

Source: OCHA/FTS/CERF

12,985,955

10,995,505

2,002,599

10,991,119

3,998,746

4,998,778

6,991,425

18,000,027

70,964,154 141,373,36270,409,208TOTAL

12,985,955

12,600,313

1,972,054

2,002,599

10,991,119

4,961,689

9,217,722

12,885,332

20,823,623

24,635,432

28,297,524

1,604,808

1,972,054

962,943

4,218,944

12,885,332

20,823,623

17,644,007

10,297,497UGANDA

KENYA

DRC

RWANDA

ERITREA

0

50m

100m

150m

200m

250m

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total CERF received in the last 5 years

XX - Total

28,738,892

39,207,403

40,492,656

51,609,637

83,211,092

160,796,084

162,339,221

238,304,796

241,222,981

273,203,630

304,673,692

0 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m

SUDAN

DRC

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

BURUNDI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

RWANDA

RR UF

45SomaliaHRPfundinghasbeenadjusteddownwardsby$34.5milliontoreflectrevisedagencyanddonorreportinginFinancialTrackingService(FTS)

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2006 - 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS2006 – 2016 OVERALL CERF RECIPIENTS:

COUNTRY RR UF TOTAL

CERF ALLOCATIONS TO THE REGION IN 2016:

DJIBOUTI

ETHIOPIA

SUDAN

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

BURUNDI

Source: OCHA/FTS/CERF

12,985,955

10,995,505

2,002,599

10,991,119

3,998,746

4,998,778

6,991,425

18,000,027

70,964,154 141,373,36270,409,208TOTAL

12,985,955

12,600,313

1,972,054

2,002,599

10,991,119

4,961,689

9,217,722

12,885,332

20,823,623

24,635,432

28,297,524

1,604,808

1,972,054

962,943

4,218,944

12,885,332

20,823,623

17,644,007

10,297,497UGANDA

KENYA

DRC

RWANDA

ERITREA

0

50m

100m

150m

200m

250m

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Total CERF received in the last 5 years

XX - Total

28,738,892

39,207,403

40,492,656

51,609,637

83,211,092

160,796,084

162,339,221

238,304,796

241,222,981

273,203,630

304,673,692

0 50m 100m 150m 200m 250m 300m 350m

SUDAN

DRC

ETHIOPIA

SOMALIA

SOUTH SUDAN

KENYA

UGANDA

BURUNDI

DJIBOUTI

ERITREA

RWANDA

RR UF

36


V. VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTSHumanitarian needs are expected to increase throughout the region, and humanitarian conditions invulnerabilityhotspotsarelikelytodeterioratesignificantly.Theseareasinclude:

•Multiple locations across South Sudan.InNorthernBahrelGhazal(NBeG),theacutefoodinsecurityandmalnutritioncrisisisexpectedtocontinue,whileinWesternBahrelGhazal(WBeG)ongoingconflictandinsecuritycontinuestodrivehumanitarianneeds.OngoingclashesintheEquatoriasarelikelytotriggeradditionalpopulationdisplacement,includingacrossborderstoUganda,DRCandCAR.Meanwhile,theGreaterUpperNileregionremainshighlyunstableandfurthertensionsarelikelyandmaycausefurtherdisplacement, including toEthiopiaandSudan.There isalso the likelihoodof thecontinuedspreadofcommunicablediseaseoutbreaks,includingcholera,malaria,measlesandkala-azar.

•Uganda.GiventheunprecedentedinfluxofSouthSudaneserefugeesintheNorth(Adjumani,Kirandongoetc), withmore than 100,000 South Sudanese refugees arriving in September alone, and structurallyunderfundedRegionalRefugeeAppeal.

•South central Somalia, northwestern Kenya and southwestern Ethiopia areas. The predicted depressed rainfallwillleadtobelowaverageagriculturalproductioninsomeparts;likelytofurtherincreasealreadyalarming food insecurityandmalnutrition levels.At the sametime,enhanced rainfall in theEthiopianhighlandsislikelytoleadtoflooding,landslidesandanincreaseinwater-bornediseases,includingalongriversinsouthcentralSomalia.Increasedoffensives,growingtensions,clanandlocalizedconflictatcountylevelaheadofelections,thereturnofSomalirefugeesfromKenya,couldprovetobeanadditionalstressfactor,andsevereglobalpricehikesincommoditiescouldfurthercompoundvulnerabilities.

•Pastoralist areas in the eastern Ethiopia - northwest Somalia border areashavefacedtwoormoreconsecutivefailedseasonssince2015andarelikelytocontinuetobehitbyerraticandbelowaveragerains.

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VULNERABILITY HOTSPOTS

Multi-dimensional Poverty Index (MPI)

No data0.01 - 0.100.11 - 0.200.21 - 0.300.31 - 0.400.41 - 0.500.51 - 0.600.61 - 0.700.71 - 0.800.81 - 0.900.91 - 1.00

Sources: Oxford Poverty & Human Development Initiative (OPHI) 2016

SUDAN

KENYA

SOMALIA

UGANDA

ERITREA

BURUNDI

RWANDA

SOUTHSUDAN

ETHIOPIA

DJIBOUTI

Diseaseoutbreak

Flooding

Con�ict

Food priceincrease

Con�ict

Food priceincrease

Diseaseoutbreak

Flooding

Con�ict

Food priceincrease

PopulationMovement

PopulationMovement

PopulationMovement

Drought

Drought

Drought

EA: Vulnerability hotspots

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http://www.unocha.org/eastern-africa/https://www.humanitarianresponse.info/en/operations/

eastern-africaUNOCHA ROEA

REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF AFRICA · 2018-03-12 · 02 REGIONAL OUTLOOK FOR THE HORN OF...

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