REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS IN IIASA NATIONS (1983)

8/3/2019 REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS IN IIASA NATIONS (1983)

1/86

NOT FOR QUOTATIONWITHOUT PERMISSIONOF THE AUTHORS

REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALSI N IIASA NATIONS

A n d r e i R o g e rsL u i s J . C a s t r o

March 1983WP-23- 4 0

W o r k i n g Papers a re i n t e r i m r e p o r t s o n work o f t h eI n t e r n a t i o n a l I n s t i t u t e f o r A p pl ie d S ys te m s A n a l y s i sa nd ha ve r e c e i v e d o n l y l i m i t e d r ev i ew . V i e w s o ro p i n i o n s e x p r e s s e d h e r e i n d o n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e -s e n t t h o s e o f t h e I n s t i t u t e o r o f i t s N a t i o n a l Memb e rO r g a n i z a t i o n s .INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR APPLIED SYSTEMS ANALYSISA-2361 L a x e n b u r g , A u s t r i a


2/86

FOREWORD

The e v o l u t i o n o f human p o p u l a t i o n s o v e r t i m e a n d s p a c e h a sb e e n a c e n t r a l c o n c e r n o f many s c h o l a r s i n t h e Human S e t t l e m e n t sa nd S e r v i c e s A re a a t IIASA d u r i n g t h e p a s t s e v e r a l y e a r s . From1975 t h r o ug h 1978 some of t h i s i n t e r e s t was m a n i f e s t e d i n t h ework o f t h e M i g r a t i o n a n d S e t t l e m e n t T a s k , w h i ch was f o r m a l l yc o n c lu d e d i n November 1 97 8. S i n c e t h e n , a t t e n t i o n h a s t u r n e dt o d i s s e m i n a t in g t h e T a s k ' s r e s u l t s , t o c o n c l u d i n g i t s compara-t i v e s t u d y , a n d t o e x p l o r i n g p o s s i b l e f u t u r e a c t i v i t i e s t h a tm i gh t a p p l y t h e m a t h em a t ic a l m eth od olo gy t o o t h e r r e s e a r c h t o p i c s .

T h i s p a p e r i s p a r t o f t h e T a s k ' s d i s s e m i n a t i o n e f f o r t . I ti s a d r a f t o f a c h a p t e r t h a t i s t o a p pe a r i n a v olume e n t i t l e dMigration and Settlement: A Comparative Study. O th er s e l e c t e dp u b l i c a t i o n s s um m ar iz in g t h e work o f t h e M i g r a t i o n a nd S e t t l e m e n tTask a r e l i s t e d a t t h e b a c k.

A n d r e i R o g e r sfo rm er C ha i rm ano f t h e Human S e t t l e m e n t sa nd S e r v i c e s Ar ea


3/86

CONTENTS

1 . INTRODUCTION1 . 1 M i g r a t i o n D a ta1 . 2 M i g r a t i o n R a t e s a n d M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l es

2 . REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION: LEVELS2 .1 D i f f e r e n t i a l s Among Regional P o p u l a t i o n s2 .2 D i f f e r e n t i a l s Among S ex - a n d A g e - S p e c i f i c X e g i o n a lP o p u l a t i o n s

3 . REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION: AGE PROFILES3 . 1 M odel M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s3 . 2 A C o m p a ra t iv e A n a l y s i s3 . 3 F a m i l i e s o f S c h e d u l e s a nd a B a s i c S t a n d a r d S c h e du l e3 . 4 A c co u nt in g f o r t h e Age P r o f i l e : M i g r a t i o n by C a us e3 . 5 A c co u nt in g f o r t h e Age P r o f i l e : M i g r a t i o n byF am i l y S t a t u s

4 . CONCLUSIONAPPENDIXREFERENCES


4/86

REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS I NI IASA NATIONS

I N TRODUCT ION

D ec li ni ng f e r t i l i t y l e v e l s and g e ne r a l l y s t a b l e m o r t a l i t yp a t t e r n s i n t h e more d ev el op ed i n d u s t r i a l i z e d n a t i o n s havee l e v a t e d t h e r e l a t i v e i m po rt an ce o f m i g ra t io n a s a c o n t r i b u t o rt o r e g i o n a l p op u l a t i o n ch an ge . M i g ra t io n a f f e c t s n o t on l y t h es i z e o f a n a r e a ' s p o p ul a t i o n , b u t it a l s o a l t e r s t h e c om po si ti ono f t h a t p o p u l a t i o n by s e l e c t i v e l y a d di ng an d s u b t r a c t i n g p e op l ew i th d i s t i n c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Because o f i t s growth andc o m p o s it i o n al i m p a c ts , few g ov er nm en ts a r e i n d i f f e r e n t t o t h ep a t t e r n s of m i g r a t i o n t h a t ev o lv e w i t h i n and a c r o s s t h e i r b o r d er s .

The l a b e l " m i g r a t i o n " h a s i n t h e p a s t b een a p p l i e d t o twor e l a t e d , b u t d i f f e r e n t , i n d i c a t o r s o f m o b i l i t y : a p o p ul a t i o n o fmoves an d a p o p u l a t i o n o f i n d i v i d u a l s who h a ve moved. The f i r s tc o n c e p t v ie ws m i g r a t i o n a s a n e v e n t much l i k e b i r t h and d e a t h ;t h e second t r e a t s m ig r a t i on a s a t r a ns i t i on - a t r a n s f e r ofs t a t u s a na lo go u s t o a c ha ng e i n m a r i t a l o r employment s t a t u s .Thus o ne of t h e c e n t r a l pr ob le m s i n m i g r a t i o n m ea su re me nt a r i s e sa s a c on se qu en ce o f t h e d i f f e r e n t s o u r c es of m i g r a t i o n d a t a .


5/86

1 . 1 M i g r a t i o n D a t ablost i n f o r m a t i o n r e g a r d i n g m i g r a t i o n i s o b t a i n e d f ro m po p-

u l a t i o n c en su se s o r p o p u l a t i o n r e g i s t e r s t h a t r e p o r t m i g r a t io nd a t a , f o r a g i v e n t i m e i n t e r v a l , i n t e r m s o f c o u n t s o f m i g r a n t so r o f moves, r e s p e c t i v e l y . M i g r a t i on d a t a p ro du ce d by c e n s u s e sa r e u s u a l l y i n t h e form o f t r a n s i t i o n s ; p o p u l a t io n r e g i s t e r s t r e a tm i g r a t i o n a s a n e v e n t a n d g e n e r a t e d a t a o n moves. Y e t a n o t h e rs o u r c e o f m i g r a t i o n d a t a i s t h e s a m p l e s u r v e y , w h i ch may b e d e -s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e i n f o r m a t i o n b o t h a b o u t m i g r a n t s a nd a b o u t moves.

A mover i s a n i n d i v i d u a l who h a s made a move a t l e a s t o n c ed u r i n g a g i ve n i n t e r v a l . A m i g ra n t on t h e o t h e r h an d, i s ani n d i v i d u a l who a t t h e e nd of a g iv e n i n t e r v a l n o l o n g er i n h a b i t st h e same community o f r e s i d e nc e a s a t t h e s t a r t of t h e i n t e r v a l .Thus p a r a d o x i c a l l y a m u l t i p l e mover c a n b e a n o n m i g ra n t , i fa f t e r moving s e v e r a l t i m e s h e r e t u r n s t o h i s i n i t i a l p l a c e ofr e s i d e nc e b e f o re t h e en d o f t h e u n i t t i m e i n t e r v a l .

M i g r a t i o n d a t a c o l l e c t e d by p o p u l a t i o n c e n s u s e s u s u a l l y comefrom r e sp o n s es t o f o u r t y p i c a l q u e s t i o n s t h a t zs k ab o ut : p l a c e ofb i r t h , d u r a t i o n o f r e s i d e n c e , p l a c e o f l a s t r e s i d e n c e , and p l a c eo f r e s i d e n c e a t a f i x e d p r i o r d a t a ( Un i te d N a ti o ns 1 9 7 0 ) . Fromt h e a ns we rs t o t h e s e q u e s t i o n s i t i s p o s s i b l e t o e s t a b l i s h t h ec o un t o f s u r v i v in g m i g r an t s l i v i n g i n a r e g io n a t t h e t i m e o f t h ec e n su s , d i s a g g r e g a t ed by d i f f e r e n t r e t r o s p e c t i v e t i m e i n t e r v a l s .The l o n g e r t h e t i m e i n t e r v a l , t h e l e s s a c c u r a t e be co me s t h e mi g r a-t i o n m ea su re .

B ec au se p o p u l a t i o n r e g i s t e r s f o c u s on moves a n d n o t o nt r a n s i t i o n s , d i f f e r e n c e s w i l l a r i s e b etw ee n d a t a o b t a i n e d f ro mr e g i s t e r s an d f ro m p o p u l a t io n c e n su s e s . T h i s i n c o n s i s t e n c y i se xam in ed i n t h e a nn ex t o t h e UN 1VanuaL o n Methods o f Mea sur ingI n 6 e r n a Z M i g r a t i o n ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s 1 9 7 0 ) , w he re it i s s t a t e d :

S i n ce a t l e a s t some m ig r a n t s , by c e n s us d e f i n i t i o n ,w i l l h av e b ee n i n v o l v ed , b y r e g i s t r a t i o n d e f i n i t i o n ,i n more t h a n o n e m i g r a t o r y e v e n t , c o u n t s f ro m r e g i s -t e r s s h o u l d n o r m a l l y e x c e ed t h o s e f r om c e n s u s e s ...Only w i t h J a p a n e s e d a t a h a s it s o f a r be e n p o s s i b l et o t e s t t h e c o r r e sp o n d en c e be tw ee n m i g r a t i o n s , a sr e g i s t e r e d d u r i n g a on e- ye ar p e r i o d and m i g r a n t se nu me ra te d i n t h e c e n su s i n t e r m s o f f i x e d - p e r i o dc h an g e i n r e s i d e n c e . ( U n i t e d N a t i o n s 1970:SO)


6/86

T a b l e 1 , t a k e n f ro m t h e UN a n a l y s i s , i l l u s t r a t e s how t h er a t i o o f r eg i s t e r - t o -c e n s us m i g ra t io n d a t a i s i n ge n e r a l g r e a t e rt h a n u n i t y , i n c r e a s i n g w i t h d ec r e a si n g d i s t a n c e , a s f o r ex am ple ,i n t h e c a s e o f i n t r a - v e r s u s i n t e r p r e f e c t u r a l m i g r a t i on i nJ ap an . I n g e n e r a l , t h e r a t i o o f r e g i s t e r - t o - c e n s u s m i g r a t i o nd a t a s h o u l d t e n d t o u n i t y a s l o n g e r d i s t a n c e s a r e i n vo lv ed . I ts ho u ld b e g r e a t e r t h a n u n i t y when s h o r t d i s t a n c e s a r e c o n s id e r e d ,b ec au se t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f m oving a c r o s s l o ng d i s t a n c e s s e v e r a lt i m e s i s e x pe c te d t o b e l e s s t h a n t h e p r o b a b i l i t y o f m ovingt h e same number of t i m e s b et we en s h o r t d i s t a n c e s .

ina ally, m i g r a t i o n o c c u r s b o t h o v e r t i m e a nd a c r o s s s p a c e ;t h e r e f o r e , s t u d i e s of i t s p a t t e r n s m ust t r a c e i t s o c c u r r e n c ew it h r e s p e c t t o a t i m e i n t e r v a l , a s w e l l a s o v e r a s y s te m o fg e og r ap h ic a l a r e a s . I n g e n e r a l , t h e l o n g er t h e t i m e i n t e r v a l ,t h e l a r g e r t h e number o f r e t u r n m ov ers a n d n o n s u r v i v i n g m i g ra n ts ;h e n c e , t h e more t h e c o u n t of migrants w i l l u n d e r s t a t e t h e numbero f i n t e r a r e a m o v e r s ( a nd m o v es ) . P h i l i p R e e s , f o r e xa mp le ,a f t e r ex am in in g t h e r a t i o s o f o ne -y ea r t o f i v e - ye a r m i g ra n tsb et we en t h e S t a n d a r d R eg io ns of G r e a t B r i t a i n , f ou nd t h a t

... t h e number o f m i g r a n t s r e c o r d e d o v e r f i v e y e a r si n a n i n t e r r e g i o n a l f lo w v a r i e s from f o u r t i m e s t otwo t i m e s t h e number o f m i g r a n t s r e c o r d e d o v e r o ney e a r . ( R e e s 1977:247)A ' f u n da m e n t a l a s p e c t o f m i g r a t i o n i s i t s c h a n g e o v e r t i m e .

A s Ryder ( 19 64 ) p o i n t ed o u t f o r t h e c a s e o f f e r t i l i t y , p e r i o dand c o h o r t r e p r o d u ct i o n r a t e s w i l l d i f f e r wh en ever t h e a ge d i s -t r i b u t i o n o f c h i l d b e a r i n g v a r i e s from o ne c o h o r t t o a n o th e r .The u s e f u ln e s s o f a c o h o r t ap pr oa ch i n m i g r a t i o n , a s i n f e r t i l i t ya n a l y s i s , l i e s i n t h e i m po rta nc e of h i s t o r i c a l e x pe r ie n ce a s ane x p l a n a t i o n o f c u r r e n t b e h a vi o r . M o rr is on ( 19 70 ) i n d i c a t e s t h a tm i g r a t i o n i s i nd uc ed by t r a n s i t i o n s from on e s t a g e o f t h e l i f ec y c l e t o a n o t h e r , a nd " ch ro n i c" m ig ra n t s may a r t i f i c i a l l y i n f l a t et h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f o r i g i n a r e a s t h a t a r e h e a v i l y p o pu la te dw i t h m i g r a ti o n - p ro n e i n d i v i d u a l s . Both i n f l u e n c e s on p e r i o dm i g r a t i o n a r e r e a d i l y a s s e s s e d by a c o h o r t a n a l y s i s .


7/86

T a b le 1 . Compar ison of m ig ra t io n by s ex and type based on t h ep o p u l a t i o n r e g i s t e r a nd t h e c e n s us f o r t h e o n e- ye arpe r i od be tween Oc tober 1959 and Oc tob er 1 9 6 0 , J a p a n .

S ex a nd t y p e o f m i g r a t i o n R e g i s t e r d a t a C e n su s d a t a R a t i o x 1 0 0BOTH SEXES

I n t r a - p r e f e c t u r a l 2 , 9 6 6 , 6 2 1 1 , 9 9 8 , 1 7 1 1 4 8 . 4 7I n t e r p r e f e c t u r a l 2 , 6 2 5 , 1 3 5 2 , 5 9 0 , 7 5 1 1 0 1 . 3 3

MALE SI n t r a - p r e f e c t u r a l 1 , 4 8 8 , 9 3 5 1 , 0 0 1 , 7 4 5 1 4 8 . 6 3I n t e r p r e f e c t u r a l 1 , 4 5 0 , 8 1 7 1 , 4 6 6 , 8 9 8 9 8 . 9 0

FEMALESI n t r a - p r e f e c t u r a l 1 , 4 7 7 , 6 8 6 9 9 6 , 4 2 6 1 4 8 . 3 0I n t e r p r e f e c t u r a l 1 , 1 7 4 ,3 1 8 1 , 1 2 3 , 8 5 3 1 0 4 . 4 9- - - - - - - - - - - -

SOURCE: U n i t e d N a t i o n s ( 1 9 7 0 , T a b l e 4 2 : 5 0 ) .

I t i s t h e m i g r a t i o n o f a p e r i o d , h ow ev er , a nd n o t t h a t o fa c o h o r t , t h a t d e te r mi n es t h e s udden r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of a n a t i o n a lp o p u l a t i o n i n r e sp o n s e t o econ om ic f l u c t u a t i o n s , a nd i t s i si n f o r m a t i o n on p e r i o d m i g r a t io n t h a t i s needed t o c a l c u l a t es p a t i a l p o pu l at io n p r o j e c t i o n s .1 . 2 M i g r a t i o n R a t e s a n d M i g r a t i o n S c h e d u l e s

'i'he s i n p l c s t arzil most common measure of m ig ra t i on i s t h ec r u d e o u t m i g r a t i o n r a t e : t h e r a t i o o f t h e number of m i g r a n t s ,l e a v i n g a p a r t i c u l a r p o p u la t io n l o c a t e d i n s pa c e and t im e , t othe a ve r a ge num be r of p e r s o n s (m ore e x a c t l y , p e r s o n - y e a r s )e x po s ed t o t h e r i s k of b ec om in g m i g r a n t s . D ata on n o n s u r v i v i n qm i gr a nt s a r e g e n e r a l l y u n a v a i l a b le , t h e r e f o r e t h e nu me ra to r i nt h i s r a t i o g e n e r a l l y e x c lu d es them.

B e c a us e m ig r a t i on i s h i g h ly age s e l e c t i v e , w i t h a l a r g ef r a c t i o n of m i g r a n t s b e in g y ou ng , o u r u n d e r s t a n d i n g o f m i g r a t i o np a t t e r n s a n d d y n a m i c s i s a i d e d by c om pu tin g m i g r a t i o n r a t e s f o re a c h s i n g l e y e a r o f a g e . Summing t h e s e r a t e s o v e r a l l ag e s o f


8/86

l i f e g iv es t h e gross migraproduction rate ( G M R ) , t h e m i g r a t io na na lo g of f e r t i l i t y ' s g r o ss r ep ro du c t io n r a t e . T h i s r a t er e f l e c t s t h e l e v e l a t which m i gr a t i on o c c u r s o u t o f a g i ve nr e g i o n .

The a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s of m u l t i r e g i o n a l p op-u l a t i o n s e x h i b i t r e ma rk ab ly p e r s i s t e n t r e g u l a r i t i e s . Fore x a mp le , when c om p ar in g t h e a g e - s p e c i f i c a n n u a l r a t e s o f r e s i -d e n t i a l m i g r a t i o n among w h i t e s a nd b l a c k s i n t h e U n i t ed S t a t e sd u r i n g 1 9 66 -1 97 1, o n e f i n d s a common p r o f i l e ( F i g u r e 1 ) .M i g r a t i o n r a t e s among i n f a n t s a nd young c h i l d r e n m i r r o r e d t h er e l a t i v e l y h i gh r a t e s o f t h e i r p a r e n t s , young a d u l t s i n t h e i rl a t e t w e n t i e s . The m o b i l i t y of a d o l e s c e n t s was l ow e r b u te xc ee de d t h a t of young t e e n s , w i t h t h e l a t t e r s how ing a l o c a llow p o i n t ar ou nd a ge 15 . T h e r e a f t e r m i g r a t i o n r a t e s i n c r e a s e d ,a t t a i n i n g a h i g h p ea k a t a b o u t ag e 2 2, a nd t h e n d e c l i n e d mono-t o n i c a l l y u n t i l t h e a g es o f r e t i r e m e n t . The m i g r a t i o n Z e v e Z s ofb o t h w h i t e s a n d b l a c k s w e re r o u g hl y s i m i l a r , w i t h w h i t e s s ho win ga GPIR o f ab o u t 1 4 a nd b l a c k s o n e o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 5 .

Al though i t h a s f r e q u e n t l y bee n a s s e r t e d t h a t m ig r a t i o ni s s t r o n g l y s e x s e l e c t i v e , w i t h m al es b e i n g more m ob il e t h a nf em al es , r e c e n t r e s e a rc h i n d i c a t e s t h a t s ex s e l e c t i v i t y i s muchl e s s p ro no un ce d t h a n ag e s e l e c t i v i t y a n d i s l e s s u n if o rm a c r o s st i m e a nd s p a c e . N e v e r t h e l e s s , b e c a u se m o st m o de ls a nd s t u d i e so f p o p u l a t i o n d yn am ic s d i s t i n g u i s h be tw ee n t h e s e x e s , m os tm i g r a t i o n m e a su r es d o a l s o .

F i gu r e 2 i l l u s t r a t e s t h e a ge p r o f i l e s o f m ale and f em al em i g r a t i o n s ch ed u l es i n f o u r d i f f e r e n t c o u n t r i e s a t a b ou t t h esame p o i n t i n t i m e b et we en r o u g h l y c om p ar ab le a r e a l u n i t s :communes i n t h e N e t h e r l an d s an d Sw ed en , v o i v o d s h i p s i n P o l an d ,a nd c o u n t i e s i n t h e Un it ed S t a t e s . The m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s f o ra l l b u t P ol an d a r e s i m i l a r , v a r y i n g be tw ee n 3 . 5 a nd 5 . 3 m ig ra -t i o n s p e r l i f e t i m e ; and t h e l e v e l s f o r m ales a nd f e ma le s a r er o u gh l y t h e sam e. The a g e p r o f i l e s , h o we ve r, s how a d i s t i n c t ,a nd c o n s i s t e n t , d i f f e r e n c e . The h i g h p ea k o f t h e f e m al e s c h e du l e


9/86

p r e c e d e s t h a t o f t h e m a le s c h e d u l e by a n am ount t h a t a p p e a r s t oa p pr ox im a te t h e d i f f e r e n c e b etw een t h e a v e r a g e a g e s a t m a rr i a g eo f t h e two s e x e s .

F i g u r e 1 . O bs er ve d a n n u a l m i g r a t i o n r a t e s by c o l o r ( - - - w h i t e ,- l a c k ) an d s i n g l e y e a r s o f ag e : t h e U n i te dS t a t e s , 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 1 .


10/86

4 Gr d a 7E G OU r d uW r l k0 a

l LclI c

c l -rl a nr d z r l2 rdG a GC S 7r d U Ea Ea .* U3 a kk F aa r d c lm c.Q w -40 0'


11/86

Under n or ma l s t a t i s t i c a l c o n d i t i o n s , p o i n t - t o - p o i n t move-m en ts a r e a g g re g a t e d i n t o s t r e a m s b et we en o ne c i v i l d i v i s i o n anda n o t he r ; c o n s e q u e n tl y , t h e l e v e l of i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o nd ep en ds on t h e s i z e o f t h e a r e a l u n i t s e l e c t e d . Thus a minorc i v i l d i v i s i o n , s u c h a s a c o u n t y o r commune, w ou ld h av e ag r e a t e r p r o p o r t i o n o f r e s i d e n t i a l r e l o c a t i o n i n c lu d ed a s mig ra -t i o n t ha n would a ma jo r c i v i l d i v i s i o n , s uc h a s a s t a t e o rp r o v i n c e .

F i g u re 3 p r e s e n t s t h e a g e p r o f i l e s o f f em al e m i g ra t io ns c he d u le s a s measu red by d i f f e r e n t s i z e s of a r e a l u n i t s : ( 1 )a l l m ig r a t io n s f rom o ne r e s i d e n c e t o a n o t h e r , ( 2 ) changes o fr e s i d e n c e w i t h i n c o u n t y b o u n d a r i e s , ( 3 ) m i g r a t i o n b et we en c ou n-t i e s , and ( 4 ) m i g r a t i o n b et we en s t a t e s . The r e s p e c t i v e f o u rGMRs a r e 1 4 . 3 , 9 . 3 , 5 . 0 , a nd 2 . 5 . The f o u r a g e p r o f i l e s a p p ea rt o be r em ar k a bl y s i m i l a r , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e r e g u l a r i t y i nage p a t t e r n p e r s i s t s a c r o s s a r e a l d e l i n e a t i o n s o f d i f f e r e n t s i z e s .

TotalWithin countiesEemeen countiesBetween states

F i g u r e 3. O bs er ve d a v e r a g e a n n u a l m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o f f e m a l e sby l e v e l s of a r e a l a g g re g a t i on and s i n g l e y e a r s o fa g e : t h e U n i te d S t a t e s , 1 96 6-1 971 .


12/86

2. REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION: LEVELSDespite the growing availability of statistics on migra-

tion among various administrative areas within the moredeveloped nations, the unresolved problem of how to standardizeareal units to reflect different sizes and shapes has hamperedinternational comparisons of geographical mobility levels. Toavoid this problem, a few studies have resorted to comparisonsof counts of all changes of residence during a specified intervalof time (e.g., Long and Boertlein 1976). Table 2 sets out sucha comparison by way of illustration.

According to Column 2 of Table 2, about 18.6 percent ofthe US population moved from one residence to another withinthe country during a 12-month period around 1980, comparedwith about 1 1 . 1 percent in Great Britain and 12.0 percent inJapan. These data lend support to the hypothesis that ratesof geographical mobility are relatively high in the UnitedStates.

Table 2. The residentially mobile population in seven countries:around 1970.

aP e r c e n t m ov ing i n one ye a r

Country- - - -

nc lu di ng movers Exclu ding moversf rom abroad f rom abroad

A u s t r a l i a (NA) 1 5 .7Canada (NA) (NA)G re at B r i t a i n 1 1 .8 11.1I r e l a n d 5 . 1 4 . 3Ja pa n 12.0 12 OTaiwan (NA) 9 . 1U n i te d S t a t e s 1 9 . 2 1 8. 6

YA: n o t a v a i l a b l ea ~ e r s o n s ne y e a r o l d a nd o v e r .

SOURCE: Long an d B o e r t l e i n (197 6:3 )


13/86

The migration data collected for the Comparative Migrationand Settlement Study have a number of crippling deficienciesthat make them totally unsuitable for international comparisonsof this sort. Not only do they describe flows of peoplebetween areas of different sizes and shapes, but also theydo so for different moments in time, using time intervals ofdifferent widths, and relying on data collected in differentways. Therefore, in this paper, we shall focus only on com-parisons of differences within (and not between) countries.In this way we hope to reduce, as much as possible, the unknownimpacts of these deficiencies in the data and to carry out someguarded and rough assessments of intranational differentialsin migration patterns.

The shape, or profile, of an age-specific schedule ofmigration rates is a feature that may be usefully studiedindependently of its intensity, or level. This is because thereis considerable empirical evidence that although the lattertends to vary significantly from place to place, the former isremarkably similar in various communities. Regional differen-tials in migration levels are examined in this section; a com-parison of regional differentials in migration age profiles arestudied in the next section. We begin with an examination ofdifferentials among total pogulations and then go on to considerdisaggregations by sex and age.

2.1 Differentials Among Regional PopulationsTo examine regional differentials in outmigration levels,

we must first adopt an aggregate measure of such levels. Aconvenient indicator is the gross migraproduction rate (GMR):the sum of all age-specific outmigration rates from a regionmultiplied by the number of years in the age interval (fivein our case). It is evident from this definition that a region'sgross migraproduction rate is calculated in a way analogous toits gross death rate and its gross reproduction rate. By giving


14/86

e q u a l w e ig h t t o e a ch a g e - s p e c i f i c o u t m i g ra t i o n r a t e , t h i sm easu re a v o i d s t h e d ep en de nc e o n a p a r t i c u l a r p o p u l a t i o n ' s a q ec o m p os i t i o n t h a t i s e x h i b i t e d by a l t e r n a t i v e i n d i c a t o r s s uc ha s t h e c r u d e ou t m i g ra t i o n r a t e , f o r e xam ple .

T he 1 7 c o u n t r i e s o f I IA S A 's C o m p a ra t iv e M i g r a t i o n a n dS e t t l e m e n t S t u dy were d i v i d ed i n t o a t o t a l o f 139 r e g i o ns .G ro ss m ig r a pr o d uc t io n r a t e s f o r e a ch c o u n t r y an d f o r e a c hr e g i o n may b e f ou nd i n t h e A ppendix t o t h i s p a p e r . S i n c e t h emain pu r po s e o f t h i s s e c t i o n i s t o a n a l y z e n a t i o n a l p a t -t e r n s o f r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s , w e s h a l l f o cu s o n l y on asummary i n d i c a t o r o f r e g i o n a l v a r i a t i o n w i t h i n e a c h c o u n t ry .F o l l o w i n g t h e e xa mp le s e t by t h e e a r l i e r s t u d y o f r e g i o n a ld i f f e r e n t i a l s i n m o r t a l i t y (T e rm o te 1 9 82 ) , w e a d o p t t h e "meana b s o l u te d e v i a t i o n " (MAD) a s o u r p r i n c i p a l i n d i c a t o r , i . e . ,t h e sum o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s b et we en e a c h r e g i o n a l v a l u e an d t h en a t i o n a l f i g u r e , d i v i d e d by t h e number o f r e g i o n s . To c o n t r o lf o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n a g g r e g a t e l e v e l s among n a t i o n s , w e e x p r e s st h e mean a b s o l u t e d e v i a t i o n a s a p e r c en t ag e o f t h e n a t i o n a lv a l u e .

T a b l e 3 s e t s o u t t h e l o w e st a nd h i g h e s t r e g i o n a l g r o s sm ig r ap ro d uc t i on r a t e s f o r e a ch o f I IA SA 's 17 c o u n t r i e s , i n c l u d i n gi n e ac h c a s e t h e c o rr e s p on d in g n a t i o n a l f i g u r e . I n A u s t r i a ,f o r e x am p le , t h e n a t i o n a l r a t e i n 1971 was 0 .3 5 . Among t h en i n e r e g i o n s i n t o w hich t h e c o u n t r y was d i v i d e d , t h e l o w e s tr a t e was 0 . 22 , t h e h i g h e s t r a t e was 0 . 5 1 , a nd 0. 51 - 0 .35 =0 .1 6 was t h e " h i g h e s t a b s o l u t e d e v i a t i o n " . Adding t o t h i sf i g u r e t h e o t h e r e i g h t a b s o l u t e d e v i a t i o n s and t h e n d i v i d i n gby n i n e g i v e s 0. 09 , t h e e n t r y a t t h e t o p o f t h e f o u r t h columno f n um bers . E x p re s s in g t h i s a s a p e r c e n ta g e o f t h e n a t i o n a lg r o s s m ig ra p ro d uc t i on r a t e y i e l d s t h e 27 .0% fo un d a t t h e t o po f t h e l a s t co lu mn o f n u mb er s.

An e x a mi n at i on o f t h e l a s t column i n T a b l e 3 r e v e a l s t h a tc o n s i d e r a b l e r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n l e v e l s o f o u t m i g r a t i o ne x i s t i n a number o f I I AS A' s c o u n t r i e s . F or em os t a r e t h e h i g hd i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s o f Canada ( 7 4 . 2 % ) an d t h e F e d e r a l R e pu b li co f Germany ( 5 6 . 8 % ) , w i t h J a p an n o t f a r b e hi n d ( 4 1 . 3 % ) . A t t h e


15/86

Table 3. Regional differentials in gross migraproduction rates.

C o u n tr y ( r e f e r e n c e y e a r : N a t i o n a l L ow es t H i g h e s t MAD MAD/N%n um be r o f r e g i o n s ) ( N )A u s t r i a ( 1 9 71 : 9 ) 0 . 3 5 0 . 2 2 0 . 5 1 0 . 0 9 2 7 . 0B u l g a r i a ( 1 9 7 5: 7 ) 0 . 3 1 0 . 2 3 0 . 4 6 0 . 07 23 . 5Canada (1971:10) 0 . 77 0 . 48 2 .14 0 . 57 74 . 2C z e c h o s l o v a k i a i 1 97 5 :l O ) 0 . 5 2 0 . 3 1 0 . 8 7 0 . 15 29 . 6Fed. Rep. of Germany (1 97 4: l l ) 1 .19 0.74 3.3 0 0.68 5 6.8F i n l a n d ( 1974: 12 ) 1 . 62 0 . 85 2 .47 0 . 35 21. 9F r a n c e ( 1975 : 8 )German Dem . R e p . ( 1 9 7 5 : 5 )Hungary (1974:6)I t a l y ( 19 78 : 5 )J a p a n ( 1 9 7 0:8N e t h e r l a n d s ( 1 9 74 : 5 )P o l a nd ( 1977 :1 3 )S o v i e t Un ion ( 1974: )Sweden (1974 : )Uni ted Kingdom (1970:lO)U n i te d S t a t e s ( 1 97 0 :4 )

A d d i t i o n a l A g g r e g a t io nA u s t r i a ( 19 71 : 4 )I t a l y (1978 :20)


16/86

o t h e r e xt re me a r e t h e low d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s of t h e GermanDe mo cr at ic R e p u b l i c ( 1 5 . 5 % ) , P o l a n d ( 1 8 . 2 % ) , and Sweden (1 8. 3% ) *The r em a in i ng t e n c o u n t r i e s e x h i b i t a r a n g e of MAD/N % v a l u e sl y i n g b etw ee n 2 0 % and 4 0 % .

The p a r t i c u l a r r e g i o n a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n a d o pt ed f o r ea chc o u n t r y h a s a n o b vi o u s i n f l u e n c e on m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s a n d on t h ed e gr ee o f r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s t h a t a r e o b se rv e d. I n two c a s e s ,we h av e a n i n d i c a t i o n of t h e im p ac t o f r e g i o n a l d e l i n e a t i o n :A u s t r i a and I t a l y . I n t h e A u s t r i a n c a s e st ud y a fo u r- re g io nd i s a g g r e g a t i o n was a l s o s t u d i e d , and t h e I t a l i a n c a s e s t ud y a l s oc o n s i d e r e d s p a t i a l p o p u l a t i o n d ynam ics i n a s ys te m of t w en tyr e g i o n s . The l a s t two rows o f Ta bl e 3 i n d i c a t e t h a t , f o r t h e s etwo c o u n t r i e s , a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e number of r e g i o n s l e d t o ani n c r e a s e i n t h e d eg re e of s p a t i a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n r e g i o n a lm i g r a t i o n l e v e l s , w hich i s t o b e e x p e c t e d . What i s somewhats u r p r i s i n g i s t h a t t h e amount o f t h e i n c r e a s e was r e l a t i v e l ysm a l l : f ro m 2 5 . 0 % t o 2 7 . 0 % i n t h e A u s t r i a n c a s e and fro m 2 5 .1 %t o 30 .1 % i n t h e I t a l i a n c as e .

S e ve r al c i t y r e g io n s a r e i n c lu d ed i n t h e c a s e s t u d i e s o ft h e Fe de r a l Repub l i c o f Germany and Po land . I f ou tm igr a t io nf r o m s u c h g e o g r a p h i c a l l y s m a l l r e g i o n s i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e a v e ra g e ,t h e n o f co u r s e , t h e d e gr ee o f a c o u n t r y ' s r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n -t i a l s i s i n f l a t e d r e l a t i v e t o t h a t of n a t i o ns w it ho ut c i t yr e g i o n s . The d a t a on t h e sa mp le o f c i t y r e g i o n s p r e s e n t e d i nTab le 4 , h ow ev er , s u g g e s t t h a t no s u ch s i m p l e p a t t e r n i s e v i -d e n t . I n t h e Fe d e r a l R e p u b l i c o f Germany o u t m i g r a t i o n f ro m c i t yr e g i o n s was a b o u t t w i c e a s h ig h a s t h e n a t i o n a l f i g u r e , w h er ea si n P ola nd it was a b o u t t h e sam e, w i t h f o u r o u t o f f i v e c i t yreg ions showing a Lower t h a n n a t i o n a l v a l u e . No r e g u l a r i t i e sa r e e v id e n t i n t h e o t h e r c o u n t r i e s e i t h e r , e x ce p t f o r a n a p pa r en ta s s o c i a t i o n betw een t h e l e v e l o f a c i t y r e g i o n ' s g r o s s migra-p r o d uc t io n r a t e and i t s c r ud e n e t i n m i g r a t i o n r a t e . A l l c i t y

*The U n i te d S t a t e s , w i t h i t s f o u r v e ry l a r g e r e g i o n s , n a t u r a l l ye x h i b i t s an u n u s u al l y low d e g re e of r e g i o n a l d i s p a r i t y ( 7 . 6 % ) ;h ow ev er , t h e c o a r s e n e s s o f t h e r e g i o n a l d i s a g g r e g a t i o n makesi t s i n c l u s i o n u n s u i t a b l e f o r o u r c o m pa r at iv e s t u d y . Conse-q u e n t l y we do n o t i n c l u d e it i n o u r a n a l y s i s .


17/86

T a b l e 4 . R eg io na l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n g r o s s m i gr a pr o du c ti o nr a t e s : c i t y r eg io n s .

C oun t ry (C i ty Nat iona l Urban Difference Net migrat ionr e f e r e n c e y e a r ) ( N ) ( U ) ( U -N ) r a t e ( p e r 100 0)Aus t r i a (1971)

ViennaB u lga r i a (1975)

S o f i aFed. Rep. of Germany ( 19 74 ) 1. 19

Hamburg 2.87 1.6 8 -5.90Bremen 3.30 2.11 -4.80

F in l and ( 1974)Uusimaa-Helsinki

France (1975)P a r i s

German Dem . Rep. (1975)B e r l i n

Hungary (1974)Cent ra l -Budapes t

Japan (1970)Kanto-Tokyo

Poland (1977)WarsawLodzGdanskKatowiceCracow

Sweden (1974)Stockholm

United Kingdom ( 1970)South East-London

Add i t i ona l Aggrega t i onCzechos lovakia (1975)PragueB r a t i s l a v a

I t a l y ( 1 9 7 8 )Lazio-Rome

Nethe r lands (1974) 1 .66North Holland-Amsterdam 1.7 5 0. 09 -5.82


18/86

r e g i o n s w i t h low GMRs ( 2 3 /4 ) g a i n ed p o p u l a t i o n t hr o u g h n e tm i g r a t i o n ; t h o s e w i t h h i g h GMRs ( 2 1% ) l o s t , w i t h two e x c e p t i o n s :H e l s i n k i a nd B u d ap e st . The l a t t e r , ho we ve r, i s a member of ac l a s s o f c i t y r e g io n s e x h i b i t i n g p o s i t i v e n e t i n m ig r a t io n : a l lE a s t Eu rop ean c i t i e s .

To su mm arize, r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n o u tm i g r at i on l e v e l sa r e r ou g h ly t w i c e a s s t r o n g i n some IIASA c o u n t r i e s a s i no t h e r s . A p p ar e nt ly t h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s a r e n o t s im p ly a co ns e-quence of d i f f e r e n t r e g io n a l i z a t i o n s . ( ~ u s t r i a nd I t a l y s ta y e di n t h e 2 0 % - 4 0 % c a te g or y d e s p i t e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t de gr ee so f d i s a g g r e g a t i o n . ) Nor do t h e y s im p ly r e f l e c t t h e p r e se n c e o ra b se n ce o f c i t y r e g i o n s .

Among c i t y r e g i o n s few g e n e r a l i z a t i o n s a r e a p p a r e n t . T hosewi t h l ow o u t m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s g a i n e d f ro m m i g r a t i o n e x c ha n g esw i t h t h e r e s t o f t h e c o u n t r y , w h er ea s t h o s e w i t h h i g h GMRsg e n e r a l l y l o s t . C i t y r e g i o n s i n E a s t e r n Europe ga in e d fromn e t m i g r a t i o n , w he re as t h o s e i n W es ter n Europe g a i n e d o r l o s t ,d ep en d in g on t h e i r l e v e l o f o u t m i g r a t i o n .

2 . 2 D if f e r e n t i a l s Among Sex- and Age-Spec i f i c Reg iona l Po pu la t i on sA s t u d y o f r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s among p o p u l a t i o n s w i t h o u t

r e g a r d t o se x- an d a g e - s p e c i f i c d e t a i l s may h i d e p a t t e r n s t h a ta r e i d e n t i f i a b l e o nl y a t f i n e r l e v e l s of r e s o l u t i o n . Male andf e ma l e m i g r a t i o n p a t t e r n s may v a r y , an d i n f a n t s may e x h i b i tm i gr a t io n r a t e s t h a t d i f f e r f rom t h os e of t h e e l d e r l y .

Tab le 5 r e p e a t s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s s e t o u t i n Tab le 3 f o rt h e s e v e n IIASA c o u n t r i e s f o r w hich a d i s a g g r e g a t i o n by s e xc o u l d b e made. T hese f i g u r e s i n d i c a t e t h a t r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n -t i a l s i n m ig r at io n l e v e l s among f em al es a r e s l i g h t l y h i g h ert h a n among m al es i n h i g h d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s , w i t h J ap anb e i n g t h e o n l y c o u n t r y i n whi ch m a le s show more r e g i o n a ld i f f e r e n t i a l s t ha n f em ale s. R eg iona l d i f f e r e n t i a l s f o r t h etwo s e x e s i n low d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s a r e a b ou t t h e same.

Do fema les mi gr a t e more than ma les? Accord ing t o Tab le 5t h e y do n o t . D i f f e r e n c e s i n n a t i o n a l l e v e l s of t h e GMR betweent h e s e xe s a r e s m a ll ; n e v e r t h e le s s i t does seem t h a t ma lesm i g r at e more t h a n f e ma le s i n h i gh d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s .


19/86

Table 5. Regional differentials in gross migraproduction rates:males and females.

C o u nt r y ( r e f e r e n c e y e a r : N a t i o n a l L ow es t H i g h e s t MAD MAD/N%num be r o f r e g i ons ) ( N )Male

Canada ( 1 9 7 1:10) 0.77 0 .49 2.12 0 . 5 6 7 2 . 7Fed. Rep. o f Germany (1 97 4: l l ) 1 .36 0 . 87 3.68 0 . 7 4 5 4 . 7F i n l a n d ( 19 74 : 1 2 ) 1 . 60 0 . 75 2.33 0 . 34 21 . 0F r a nc e ( 1975 : 8 ) 0 . 83 0 . 62 1 . 3 6 0 . 1 8 22 . 1Japan (1970: 8 ) 1 . 5 8 0 .88 2.79 0.66 42.0Sweden (1974:8) 1 . 1 8 0 . 8 1 1 .47 0 . 2 2 1 8 . 3Un it ed Kingdom (1970 : 10) 1 . 2 3 0 . 9 3 1 . 90 0 . 25 20 . 2

Fema1Canada (1971: 10) 0 . 7 4 0 . 4 6 2.13 0 . 5 8 7 8 . 4Fed. Rep. o f Germany (1 97 4: l l ) 1 .02 0 . 6 1 2.89 0 . 6 0 5 8 . 7F i n l a n d ( 1 9 7 4 :1 2 ) 1 . 6 4 0 .96 2.63 0 .39 23 .7F r a nc e ( 1975: 8 ) 0 . 84 0 . 65 1 . 33 0.19 22.2Japan (1970:8) 1 . 17 0 . 63 2 -0 1 0 . 46 39 . 6Sweden (1974:8) 1 . 2 1 0 . 8 2 1 . 4 8 0 . 2 3 1 8 . 8Un it ed Kingdom (1970 :lO) 1.17 0 . 8 1 1 . 80 0 . 24 20 .7


20/86

T a b l e s 6 , 7 , an d 8 p r e s e n t d a t a on r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n d i f -f e r e n t i a l s f o r t h r e e d i s t i n c t a g e g r o u ps : i n f a n t s ( 0 - 4 y e a r s ) ,y o u n g a d u l t s ( 15-29 yea r s ) , a nd t h e e l d e r l y ( 6 5 y e a r s a nd o v e r ) .R e ca l l in g t h e a g e p r o f i l e s o f m i g ra t i o n s e t o u t e a r l i e r i n t h i sp a p e r , o n e m i gh t r e a s o n a b l y e x p e c t t h e s e gr o up s t o c a p t u r e t h er a n g e o f d i v e r s e p a t t e r n s o f m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o r . M i g r a t i onl e v e l s s h o u l d b e r e l a t i v e l y h i g h among you ng a d u l t s , low amongt h e e l d e r l y , a n d so me wh ere i n b e tw e e n t h e s e t wo e x t r e m e s amongi n n t s .

Of t h e t h r e e h i gh d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s i d e n t i f i e d i nT a b l e 3 , C an ad a a n d t h e F e d e r a l R e p u b l i c o f Germany s how h i g hr e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n a l l t h r e e a ge g r ou ps , w i t h MAD/N %v a l u e s e xc e ed i ng 50% i n a l l c a s e s . J a p a n , on t h e o t h e r h an d,shows h ig h r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s o n l y i n t h e young a d u l t ag eg ro up ( 5 8 . 3 % ) . T hus t h e h i g h d i f f e r e n t i a l s t a t u s o f J a pa n i sl a r g e l y a c o ns eq u en ce o f t h e d i v e r s e m i g r a t i o n b e h a v i o r ofi t s y o u n g a d u l t s .

Among t h e t h r e e low d i f f e r e n t i a l c o u n t r i e s i n T a b le 3 ,t h e German D e m o c r a ti c R e p u b l i c a nd Sw eden e x h i b i t r e l a t i v e l ylow d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n a l l t h r e e a ge g ro u ps , w i th MAD/N % v a l u e sn o t e x c ee d in g 25% i n a l l c a s e s . B ut P o la n d, w hich i n T ab l e 3h a d a MAD/N % v a l u e u n de r 2 0 % , now shows a s l i g h t l y h i g h e r f i g u r ef o r i n f a n t s a nd s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r v a l u e s f o r young a d u l t sa nd t h e e l d e r l y ( 3 1 . 2 % a nd 3 5 . 6 % )

W i th in e ac h o f t h e t h r e e a g e g ro up s c o n s id e r e d , no d i s t i n c tp a t t e r n s o f c o un t r y d i f f e r e n t i a l s a r e e v i d e n t . F r a nc e and t h eS o v i e t Union show h i g h r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l s among t h e e l d e r l y ,b u t e x h i b i t low an d m od era te d i f f e r e n t i a l s , r e s p e c t i v e l y , i nt h e o t h e r tw o a g e g r o u p s . S ev en c o u n t r i e s h a ve MAD/N % v a l u e su n de r 2 0% f o r i n f a n t m i g r a t i o n a n d f o u r c o u n t r i e s h a v e s c o r e st h i s low f o r t h e e l d e r l y . Y et no p a t t e r n em erg es . I t a p p e a r st h a t a m ore p r o f i t a b l e s e a r c h f o r r e g u l a r i t i e s m ig ht f lo wfro m a f o cu s on t h e e n t i r e ag e p r o f i l e a nd i t s d i s a s s o c i a t i o nf ro m m i g r a t i o n l e v e l s .


21/86

Table 6. Regional differentials in gross migraproductionrates: infants (0-4 years) .C o un t ry ( r e f e r e n c e y e a r : N a t i o n a l L ow es t H i g h e s t MAD - m / N %n u m b e r o f r e g i o n s ) (N) -----A u s t r i a ( 1 9 7 1: 9 ) 0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 1 2 0 . 0 4 1 0.008 36.4B u l g a r i a ( 1 975 : )Canada (1971:10)C z e c h o s l o v a k i a ( 1 9 7 5 : l O )Fed . Rep . o f Germany (1 97 4: l l )F i n l a n d ( 1974 : 2 )F r a n c e ( 1 9 7 5:8)German Dem . Rep. (1975:5)Hungary (1974:6)I t a l y (1 978 : 5 )J a pa n ( 1970 : 8 )N e t h e r l a n d s ( 19 7 4: 5 )P o l a nd ( 1977 : 13 )S o v i e t U ni on ( 1 97 4: )Sweden (1974: )Uni ted Kingdom (1 970: lO)U n i te d S t a t e s ( 19 70 :4 )

A d d i t i o n a l A g g r e g a t i onA u s t r i a ( 1 97 1 4 )I t a l y ( 19 78 : 20)


22/86

Table 7. Regional differentials in gross migraproductionrates: young adults ( 1 5-29 years) .C o un tr y ( r e f e r e n c e y e a r : N a t i o n a l L ow es t H i g h e s t MAD MAD/N%n um ber o f r e g i o n s ) ( N )Au s t r i a ( 1 9 7 1 : 9 ) 0 . 1 6 5 0 . 1 0 9 0 . 2 4 6 0 . 0 4 0 2 4 . 1B u l g a r i a ( 1 9 7 5:7) 0 .164 0 .107 0 .284 0 .054 33 .0Canada (1971:10) 0.216 0.119 0.756 0.218 101.1C z e c h o s l o v a k i a ( 1 9 7 5:10) 0 .202 0 .137 0 .289 0 .048 24 .0Fed . Rep . o f Germany (1 97 4: l l ) 0 .521 0 .343 1 .390 0 .28 1 53 .9F i n l a n d ( 1 9 7 4 : 1 2 ) 0 .772 0 .426 1 .27 0 0 .204 26 .4Fran ce (1975:8) 0 .25 1 0 .200 0 .287 0 .028 11 .3German Dem . Rep. (1975:5) 0 .206 0 .179 0 .246 0 .024 11 .7Hungary (1974 : ) 1 .23 9 0 .866 1 .797 0 .292 23 .5I t a l y ( 1 9 7 8: 5 ) 0 . 1 6 9 0 . 08 6 0 . 2 4 5 0 . 0 5 8 3 4 .6Ja p a n ( 1 9 7 0 : 8 ) 0 . 6 7 9 0 . 2 6 9 1 . 3 8 5 0 . 3 9 6 5 8 . 3Ne t h e r l a n d s ( 1 9 7 4 :5) 0 .417 0 .34 1 0 .698 0 .124 29 .8Poland (1977:13) 0 .240 0 .104 0 .402 0 .075 31 .2So v i e t Uni on ( 1 9 7 4 : 8 ) 1 . 3 5 7 0 . 60 7 2 . 4 4 3 0 . 4 8 6 3 5 . 8Sweden (1974 : ) 0 .517 0 .341 0 .724 0 .120 23 .3Uni t ed Kingdom (1970: lO) 0 .463 0.36 0 0.749 0.10 8 23.4Un i t e d S t a t e s ( 1 9 7 0 : 4 ) 0 . 5 0 6 0 . 39 8 0 . 56 8 0 . 0 5 7 1 1 . 2

A u s t r i a ( 1 9 7 1: ) 0 . 0 8 4 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 1 2 5 0 . 0 2 1 2 5 . 0I t a l y ( 19 78 : 2 0) 0 .20 1 0 .099 0 .489 0 .077 38.4


23/86

T ab l e 8 . R eg io na l d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n g r o s s mi gr ap ro du ct io nr a t e s : e l d e r l y ( 6 5 y e a r s a nd o v e r ) .C o un t ry ( r e f e r e n c e y e a r : N a t i o n a l L ow es t H i q h e s t MAD MAD/N %number o f reg ions ) ( N )Au s t r i a (1 97 1 : 9 )B u l g a r i a (1 97 5 : 7 )Canada (1971:10)Czechos lovak ia (1975 :10)Fed. Rep. o f Germany (1974 :11)Fi n l an d (1 97 4 : 1 2 )France (1975:8 )German Dem. Rep. (1 97 5: 5)Hungary (1974 :6 )I t a l y ( 19 78 : 5 )Japan (1970 :8 )Ne t h e r l an d s (1 9 7 4 :5 )Poland (1977 :1 3 )So v i e t Union (1974: )Sweden (1974 :8 )Un it ed Kingdom (197 0 : l o )U n i t ed S t a t e s ( 19 70 :4 )

A d d i t i o n a l A g g r e ga t i onAu s t r i a (19 71 : 4 )I t a l y ( 19 78 : 2 0)


24/86

3. REGIONAL COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF MIGRATION: AGE PROFILESMost human populations experience rates of age-specific

fertility and mortality that exhibit remarkably persistentregularities. Consequently, demographers have found it possibleto summarize and codify such regularities by means of mathemat-ical expressions called model schedules. Although the develop-ment of model fertility and mortality schedules have receivedconsiderable attention in demographic studies, the constructionof model migration schedules has not, even though the techniquesthat have been successfully applied to treat the former can bereadily extended to deal with the latter.

We began this paper with an examination of regularitiesin age profile exhibited by empirical schedules of migrationrates; we now adopt the notion of model migration schedulesto express these regularities in mathematical form. We thenuse model schedules to examine patterns of variation presentin a large number of such schedules. Drawing on this compara-tive analysis of "observed" model schedules, we develop several"families" of schedules and define a "standard" migration sched-ule. We then go on to disaggregate age profiles by causeand by family status in an effort to account for their apparentuniversality.

3.1 Model Migration SchedulesThe most prominent regularity found in empirical schedules

of age-specific migration rates is the selectivity of migrationwith respect to age. Young adults in their early twentiesgenerally show the highest migration rates and young teenagersthe lowest. The migration rates of children mirror those oftheir parents; hence the'migration rates of infants exceed thoseof adolescents. Finally, migration streams directed towardregions with warmer climates and into or out of large citieswith relatively high levels of social services and culturalamenities often exhibit a "retirement peak" at ages in the mid-sixties or beyond.


25/86

Figure 4 illustrates a typical o b s e r v e d age-specific migra-tion schedule (the jagged outline) and its graduation by am o d e l s c h e d u l e (the superimposed smooth outline) defined as thesum of four components:

1 . A single negative exponential curve of the p r e - l a b o rf o r c e a g e s , with its rate of descent al

2. A left-skewed unimodal curve of the l a b o r f o r c e agespositioned at mean age p on the age axis and exhibiting2rates of ascent X and descent a22

3. An almost bell-shaped curve of the p o s t - l k b o r f o r c eages positioned at p3 on the age axis and exhibitingrates of ascent X3 and descent a3

4. A constant curve c, the inclusion of which improvesthe fit of the mathematical expression to the observedschedule

The decomposition described above suggests the followingsimple sum of four curves (Rogers et al. 1978):

M(x) = al exp (-a,x) 'i

The labor force and the post-labor force components inequation (1) adopt the "double exponential" curve formulatedby Coale and McNeil (1972) for their studies of nuptialitypatterns.

The "full" model schedule in equation (1 has 1 1 parameters:al, l, 2, p2, a2, h2, a3, p3, a3, h3, and c. The p r o f i l e ofthe full model schedule is defined by 7 of the 1 1 parameters:

M2r a2, A 2 t P3, a3, and A 3 - Its l e v e l is determined by the


26/86

a, = rate of descent of pre-labor force comp onentA, = rate of ascent of labor force componenta, = rate of descent of labor f o r e componentA, = rate of ascent of post-labor f ~ r c eomponenta, = rate of descent of post-labor force compon ent

c = mnstant

xL= low pointx,, = high peakX , = retirement peakX = izbor force shiftA = parental shiftB = jump

X x.t x, , x + AAge, x

F i g u r e 4 . O b s er v ed a nd m od el m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s : m a l e s ,S toc kho lm, 1974 .

S o u r c e : R o g er s a nd C a s t r o ( 1 9 8 1 b ) .


27/86

r e m a i n i n g 4 p a ra m e te r s : a l , a 2 , a 3 , an d c . A c ha ng e i n t h ev a l u e o f t h e GMR o f a p a r t i c u l a r model s c h e d u l e a l t e r s p ro po r-t i o n a l l y t h e v a l u e s of t h e l a t t e r b u t d oe s n o t a f f e c t t h e f o rm er .A s w e s h a l l see l a t e r i n t h i s p a p e r , h ow ev er , c e r t a i n a s p e c t so f t h e p r o f i l e a l s o depend on t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e s c h e d u l e ' sl e v e l among t h e p r e - l a b o r , l a b o r , a nd p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e a g e com-p o n e n ts a nd o n t h e s h a r e of t h e t o t a l l e v e l a c co un te d f o r byt h e c o n s t a n t t e r m c . F i n a l l y , m i g r a t io n s c h e d u l e s w i t h o u t ar e t i r e m e n t pe a k may b e r e p r e s e n t e d by a " r e d u c e d " m od el w i t hs e ve n p a r a m e t e r s , b e ca u se i n s u c h i n s t a n c e s t h e t h i r d co mp onen to f e q u a t i o n ( 1 ) i s o m i t t e d .

T a b l e 9 s e t s o u t e s t i m a te d v a lu e s f o r t h e b a s i c and d e r i v e dm e as ur es o f t h e model s c h e d u l e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e 4 . Themethod c h os en f o r f i t t i n g t h e model s c h e d u le t o t h e d a t a i sa f u n c t i o n a l - m i n i m i z a t i o n p r o c e d u r e known a s t h e m o d i f i e dL e v e n be r g -M a r q u a rd t a l g o r i t h m ( A pp e n di x A o f R o g er s an d C a s t r o1981b , Brown and Denn i s 1972 , Levenberg 1944 , Marq uard t 19 63 ) .Minimum c h i - s q u a r e e s t i m a t o r s a r e u s ed t o g i v e mo re w e i g h t t oa ge g ro u ps w i t h s m a l l e r r a t e s o f m i g r a t io n .

To a s s e s s t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t t h a t t h e model s c h e d u lep r o v i d e s w h e n it i s a p p l i e d t o o b se rv ed d a t a , w e may c a l c u l a t eE I t h e mean of t h e a b s o l u t e d i f f e r e n c e s b e tw ee n e s t i m a t e d an do b s e rv e d v a l u e s e x p r e s s e d a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e o b s e r ve d mean:

T h i s m easure i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e f i t of t h e model t o t h e S to ck -h o l m d a t a i s r e a s o n a b l y g oo d , t h e i n d e x o f g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t Eb e i n g 6 . 8 7 .

Model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s of t h e f or m s p e c i f i e d i n eq u a-t i o n ( 1 ) may be c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f a m i l i e s a c c o rd i n g t o t h e r a ng e so f v a l u e s ta k e n on by t h e i r p r i n c i p a l p a r a m e t e r s . F o r e xa mp le ,w e may o r d e r s c h e d u l e s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e i r m ig r a t i o n l e v e l s a sd e f i n e d by t h e v a l u e s o f f o u r l e v e l pa r a m et e rs i n e q u a t io n ( I ) ,


28/86

i . e . , a l , a 2 , a 3 , and c ( o r by t h e i r a s s o c i a t e d GM R s ) . A l t e r -n a t i v e l y , w e may d i s t i n g u i s h s c h e d u l e s w i t h a r e t i r e m e n t p ea kf ro m t h o s e w i t h o u t o n e , o r w e may r e f e r t o s c h e d u l e s w i t h r e l a -t i v e l y low o r h ig h v a lu e s f o r t h e r a t e of a s c e n t of t h e l a b o rf o r c e c u r v e A 2 o r t h e mean a g e n. I n many a p p l i c a t i o n s , i t i sa l s o m ea ni ng fu l t o c h a r a c t e r i z e m i g r at i o n s c h e d ul e s i n terms o fs e v e r a l of t h e f un da me nt al m ea su re s i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 4 ,s uc h a s t h e low p o i n t x t h e h i g h pea k xh , a nd t h e r e t i r e m e n tL 'peak xr . A s s oc ia te d w i t h t h e f i r s t p a i r o f p o i n t s i s t h e l a b o rf o r c e s h i f t X I which i s d e f in ed t o b e t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n y e a r s. b et we en t h e a g e s of t h e h i g h p ea k a nd t h e l ow p o i n t , i . e . , X =h - X t . The i n c r e a s e i n t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e of i n d i v i d u a l s

aged xh o v e r t h o s e ag ed x w i l l b e c a l l e d t h e jump B .LT a b l e 9 . P a r a m e t e r s a nd v a r i a b l e s d e f i n i n g o b s e r ve d m ode lm i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s : o u t m i g r a t i o n o f m a le s f ro mt h e S t oc k ho lm r e g i o n , 1974 o b s e r v e d d a t a by s i n g l ey e a r s o f a g e .P a r a m e t e r o r Pa ram e t e r o rv a r i a b l e V al ue v a r i a b l e V a lu e

a ~ h e MR, i t s pe r c e nt a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n a c r o s s t h e t h r e e m aj or a g e c a t e g o r i e s( i . e . , 0 -14 , 15-64 , 65+) , and the mean age n a r e a l l c a l c u la t e d wi th amodel sc hedu l e spann i ng an age range of 95 ye ar s .


29/86

The c l o s e c o r re s po n d e nc e b et we en t h e m i g r a t i o n r a t e s o fc h i l d r e n and t h o s e of t h e i r p a r e n t s s u g g e s ts a n o t h er i m p o rt a nts h i f t i n o bs er ve d m i gr a ti on s ch e du l es . I f , f o r e ac h p o i n t xon t h e p o st -h i gh - pe ak p a r t o f t h e m i g r a t i o n c u r v e , w e o b t a i n byi n t e r p o l a t i o n t h e a ge (where it e x i s t s ) , x - Ax s a y , w i t h t h ei d e n t i c a l r a t e of m i g r a t i o n on t h e p re -l ow -p oi nt p a r t o f t h em i g r a t io n c u r v e , t h e n t h e a v er a g e of t h e v a l u e s of A x , c a l c u -l a t e d i n c r e m e n t a l l y f o r t h e number o f y e a r s b et we en z e r o a ndt h e low p o i n t x L , w i l l b e d e f i n e d a s t h e o b s er v ed p a r e n t a ls h i f t A .

An o b se r v e d ( o r a g r a d u a t e d ) a g e - s p e c i f i c m i g r a t i o n s c he d-u l e may be de s c r i be d i n a number o f u s e f u l ways. F o r e xa m ple ,r e f e r e n c e s may b e made t o t h e h e i g h t s a t p a r t i c u l a r a g e s, t ol o c a t i o n s o f i m p or t an t pe ak s o r t r o u g h s , t o s l o p e s a l o ng t h es c h e d u le ' s ag e p r o f i l e , t o r a t i o s between p a r t i c u l a r h e i g h t so r s l o p e s , t o a r e a s u nde r p a r t s o f t h e c u r v e , a nd t o bo t h h o r i -z o n t a l a nd v e r t i c a l d i s t a n c e s b etw een i m p o r t a n t h e i g h t s a ndl o c a t i o n s . The v a r i o u s d e s c r i p t i v e m ea su re s c h a r a c t e r i z i n ga n a g e - s p e c i f i c model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e may b e c o n v e n i e n t l yg ro up ed i n t o t h e f o l l o w i n g c a t e g o r i e s a nd s u b c a t e g o r i e s :

1 . B a s i c m e as u re s ( t h e 1 1 f unda m e n ta l pa r a m e te r s a ndt h e i r r a t i o s )h e i g h t s : a l f a 2 , a 3 , cl o c a t i o n s : v2 ' v3s l o p e s : a l f a 2r h 2 r a 3 , h 3r a t i o s : & 1 c = a l / c , 6 1 2 = a l / a 2 , 6 3 2 = a / a3 2 '812 = a l / a 2 , u 2 = h2 /a 2 , u 3 = h3/a3

2.. De r ive d m e a su r e s ( p r o pe r t i e s o f t h e m odel s c h e du le )a r e a s : GMR, % ( 0 - 1 4 ) , % (15-64) , % ( 6 5 + )

-l o c a t i o n s : n , x L , x h, xrd i s t a n c e s : X , A , B

A c o n v e n i e n t a p pr o a ch f o r c h a r a c t e r i z i n g a n o b se r v ed modelm i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e ( i - e . , a n e m p i r i c a l s c h e d u l e g r a d u a t e d bye q u a t i o n ( 1 ) ) i s t o b eg in w i t h t h e c e n t r a l l a b o r f o r c e c ur ve


30/86

and t h en t o " ad d o n" t h e p r e -l a b o r f o r c e , p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e , andco ns ta n t componen t s. Th i s approach i s r e p r e s e n t e d g r a p h i c a l l yi n F i g u re 5 .

labor force pre-labor post-labor constant model schedulecomponent force force componentcornponent compone nt

F i g u r e 5 . A sch ema t i c d iagram of t h e fundamenta l componen tso f t h e f u l l model m i g r a ti o n s c h e d u l e .

One can imagine des c r ib in g a decompos i t ion o f t h e modelm i g r a t i o n s c h ed u l e a l o ng t h e v e r t i c a l an d h o r i z o n t a l d i m en s io n s;e . g . , a l l o c a t i n g a f r a c t i o n of i t s l e v e l t o t h e c o n s t a n t compo-n e n t a nd t h e n d i v i d i n g t h e r em a in d er among t h e o t h e r t h r e e ( o rtwo) componen t s. The r a t i o 6 = a / c m e asu re s t h e f o r m e r1c 1a l l o c a t i o n , and 6 1 2 = a l / a 2 a n d 6 3 2 = a / a r e f l e c t t h e l a t t e r3 2d i v i s i o n .

The h e i g h t s of t h e l a b o r f o r c e an d p r e - l a b o r f o r c e compo-n e n ts a r e r e f l e c t e d i n t h e p ar am et er s a 2 and a , , r e s p e c t i v e l y ;t h e r e f o r e t h e r a t i o a2 / a l i n d i c a t e s t h e d e gr e e of " l a b o r domi-nance" , and i t s r e c i p r o c a l , 6 1 2 = a l / a 2 , t h e i nd ex of c h i l dd ep en de nc y, m e as ur es t h e p ac e a t which c h i l d r e n m i g r a t e w i t ht h e i r p a r e n t s . Thus t h e lo we r t h e v a l u e o f 6 1 2 , t h e l ow er t h ed e g r ee o f c h i l d d ep en de nc y e x h i b i t e d by a m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l ea n d, c o r re s p o n d i n g l y , t h e g r e a t e r i t s l a bo r dominance. Th i ss u g g e s t s a d ic ho to mo us c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of m i g r a t io n s c h e d u l e si n t o c h i l d d e pe n de n t and l abor dominan t c a t e g o r i e s .


31/86

An a na lo g o us a rg um en t a p p l i e s t o t h e p o s t - l a b o r f o r c e c u r v e ,and 6 3 2 = a 3/ a2 s u g g e s t s i t s e l f a s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e in de x. I tw i l l be s u f f i c i e n t f o r o ur p u rp o s e s, h ow ever, t o r e l y s im p ly ont h e v a l u e t ak e n on by t h e p a r am e t e r a 3 , w i t h p o s i t i v e v a l u e sp o i n t i n g o u t t h e p r e s e n c e of a r e t i r e m e n t pe ak a nd a z e r o v a l u ei n d i c a t i n g i t s a bse nc e .

Labor dominance r e f l e c t s t h e r e l a t i v e m ig r a ti o n l e v e l s o ft h o se i n t h e wo rk in g a ge s r e l a t i v e t o t h o s e of c h i l d r e n andp e n s i o n e r s . Labor asymmetry r e f e r s t o t h e shape of t h e l e f t -skewed un im od al c u r v e d e s c r i b i n g t h e a g e p r o f i l e o f l a b o r f o r c em i g r a t i o n . A c onve n i e n t i n d i c a t o r o f t h e de g re e of asym metryo f t h e c u r v e i s t h e r a t i o a 2 = h2/a2 .

A g ai n, a n an a lo g o us a rg um en t a p p l i e s t o t h e p o s t - l a b o rf o r c e c u r v e , a nd a 3 = X3/a3 may be de f i ne d a s t h e in de x ofr e t i r e m e n t a sym m e t ry .

When "ad ding on" a pr e- l ab or fo rc e cur ve of a giv en l e v e lt o t h e l a b o r f o r c e com po nent, it i s a l s o i m po rt an t t o i n d i c a t esomething of i t s s h a p e . F or ex am ple, i f t h e m i g r a t io n r a t e s o fc h i l d r e n m i r r o r t h o s e of t h e i r p a r e n t s , t he n a l s ho u ld bea p p r ox i m a te l y e q u a l t o a a nd B 1 2 = a , / a 2 , t h e i nd e x o f2p a r e n t a l - s h i f t r e g u l a r i t y , s ho ul d be c l o s e t o u n i t y .

L ar ge d i f f e r e n c e s i n GMRs g iv e r i s e t o s l o p es and v e r t i c a lr e l a t i on s h i p s among sc he du l e s t h a t a r e nonc om parab le whene xa mi ne d v i s ua l l y . Re course t he n m us t be made t o a s t a nd a r d i -z a t i o n o f t h e a r e a s un de r t h e m i g r a t i o n c u r v e s , f o r ex am pl e,a g e n er a l r e s c a l i n g t o a GMR o f u n i t y . R e c a ll t h a t t h e p r i n -c i p a l s l o p e and l o c a t i o n p ar a m e te r s and r a t i o s u se d t o ch a r ac -t e r i z e model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s a r e n o t a f f e c t e d by c ha ng esi n l e v e l s . Only h e i g h t s , a r e a s , and v e r t i c a l d i s t a n c e s , s ucha s t he jump, a r e l e ve l -de pe n de n t m e a su re s .

3.2 A Comparat ive AnalysisS e c t i o n 3.1 d e m on s tr a te d t h a t a g e - s p e c i f i c r a t e s of m i gra -

t i o n e x h i b i t a f u nd a m en t al a ge p r o f i l e , wh ich c an b e e x p r e s s e di n m a t he m a t i c a l fo rm a s a model m i g ra t i on sc he du l e de f i n e d by


32/86


33/86

p e r c e n t o f t h e " ex tr em e" s c h e du l e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e p a ra m e te r sand d e r i v e d v a r i a b l e s were o r d e r e d f ro m low v a l u e t o h i g h v a l u e ;t h e l o w e st 5 p e r c e n t and t h e h i g h e s t 5 p e r c e n t w e r e d e f in e d t ob e e x t re m e v a l u e s . S c h e d u l e s w i t h t h e l a r g e s t num ber o f lo wa nd h i g h e x tr e m e v a l u e s were d i s c a r d e d , i n s eq ue nc e , u n t i l o n lya b o u t 9 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e o r i g i n a l number of s c h e d u l e s r e m a in e d.T h i s r e d u c e d s e t t h e n s e r v e d a s t h e p o p u la t i on o f s c h e du l e s f o rt h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f v a r i o u s summary s t a t i s t i c s . T a bl e 10 i l l u s -t r a t e s t h e a v e r ag e p a ra m e te r v a l u e s o b t a i n e d w i th t h e Sw edishd a t a . (The m e d ia n , m ode, s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n -t o - m e a n r a t i o , a ndl o we r and u pp er bou nd s a r e a l s o of i n t e r e s t a nd a r e i n c l u d e da s p a r t o f t h e more d e t a i l e d c om pu te r o u t p u t s r e pr o du c ed i nAppendix B o f R o ge r s an d C a s t r o 1 9 8 1 b . )

The a v a i l a b i l i t y of o n e- ye ar a nd f i v e - y e a r a ge i n t e r v a l sf o r t h e same Sw ed is h d a t a a l l o w e d us t o t e s t w h et he r t h e i n t e r -p o l a t i o n p ro ce du re g i v e s s a t i s f a c t o r y r e s u l t s . To i n v e s t i g a t et h i s , t h e r e s u l t s of T a b l e 1 0 w er e r e p l i c a t e d u s i n g a n a gg r eg a -t i o n w i th f i ve - y e ar a g e i n t e r v a l s . The r e s u l t s , s e t o u t i nT ah le 1 1 , i n d i c a t e t h a t a l t ho u gh t h e i n t e r p o l a t i o n p ro ce du re i sa d e q u a t e , t h e p a r a m e t er X 2 i s c o n s i s t e n t l y u nd e r- e st im a te d w i t hf i v e - y e a r d a t a . T h i s te n d e nc y sh o u l d b e n o t e d and k e p t i n m ind .

I t i s a l s o i m po r ta n t t o n o t e t h e e r r a t i c be h av io r of t h er e t i r e m e n t p ea k , a p p a r e n t l y a r e s u l t o f i t s e xt re me s e n s i t i v i t yt o t h e l o s s o f i n f o r m a t i o n a r i s i n g from t h e a g g r e g a t i on . T hu s,a l t h o u g h w e s h a l l c o n t in ue t o p r e s e n t r e s u l t s r e l a t i n g t o t h ep o s t - l a bo r f o r c e a g e s , t h e y w i l l n o t be a p a r t o f o u r s e a r c hf o r f a m i l i e s o f s c h e du l e s .

Ta bl es 10 and 1 1 s um ma ri ze a v e r a g e p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s f o r 57m a l e an d 57 f em a l e S w ed is h m od el m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s . W e nows h a l l e xpa nd o u r a n a l y s i s t o i n c l u d e a much l a r g e r d a t a b a s e ,a dd in g t o t h e 1 1 4 S w edi s h m od el s ch e d u l e s a n o t h e r 1 6 4 s c h e d u l e sf r om t h e U n i t ed K ingdom ( T ab l e 1 2 ) , 1 1 4 f ro m J ap an , 20 f r o m t h eN e t h e r l a n d s ( T a b l e 1 3 ) , 58 f r om t h e S o v i e t Un io n, 8 f r o m t h eUni t ed S t a t e s , and 32 f rom Hungary (Ta b le 1 4 ) . Summary s t a t i s t i c sf o r t h e s e 510 s c h e du l e s a r e s e t o u t i n Appendix B of Rogers and


34/86


35/86

hmar

L l dc 3ar aE aJaJ Cu u.rl m4 Ja mu -s sLl (d.rl aJ3 a

hLl mc aJaJ dE 3a au aJ.rl sLl uaJ mu

.YLl Ln3 -s sLl (d.?I aJ3 a

hmaJ

Ll rlc 3aJ -aE aJaJ Cu u.?I mLlar 03u -5.rl aJ3 a

hLl me aJaJ dE 3ar au aJ-4 sU ua mum

Ll .3 -0s sLl (d.rl a3 a

LlaLlaJE(dLl(dGI

m m m m( d l 8 4


36/86

m m m om z a ~


37/86

T a b l e 13 . Mean v a l u e s o f p a r a m e t e r s d e f i n i n g t h e r e d u ce d s e t of o b s e r v e d m od el m i g r a t i o ns c h e d u l e s : J a p a n , 8 r e g i o n s , 1 9 7 0 ; t h e N e t h e r l a n d s, 12 r e g i o n s , 1974.a

Japan NetherlandsMale Fema Male FemaWithout retirement Without retirement With retirement With retirement

Parameter peak (57 schedules) peak (57 schedules) slope (10 schedules) slope (10 schedules)

a ~ e g i o n in Japan (Hokkaido) is a single-prefecture region; hence there exists no intraregional schedule forit, leaving 82 - 1 = 6 3 schedules, of which 6 were deleted. The only migration schedules available for theNetherlands were the migration rates out of each region without regard to destination; hence only 12 scheduleswere used, of which 2 were deleted.


38/86

T a b l e 1 4 . Mean v a l u e s o f p a r a m e t e r s d e f i n i n g t h e r e d u ce d s e t o f o b s er v ed t o t a l ( m a l e s p l u sf e m a l e s ) m od el m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s: t h e S o v i e t U n io n, 8 r e g i o n s , 1 97 4; t h eU n i t e d S t a t e s , 4 r e g i o n s , 1 97 0- 39 71 ; H u ng a r y, 6 r e g i o n s , 3 97 4. a

Soviet Union United States HungaryWithout retirement With retirement Without retirement With retirement

Parameter peak (58 schedules) peak (8 schedules) slope (7 schedules) slope (25 schedules)

aIntraregional migration was included in the Soviet Union and Hungarian data but not in th5 United Statesdata; hence there were 82 = 6 4 schedules for the Soviet Union, of which 6 were deleted, 6 = 36 schedulesfor Hungary, of which 4 were deleted, and 4 - 4 = 12 schedules for the United States, of which 2 weredeleted because they lacked a retirement peak and another 2 were deleted because of their extreme values.


39/86

Cas t ro 1981b; 2 0 6 a r e m al e s c h e d u l e s , 206 a r e f e ma le s c h e d u l e s ,an d 98 a r e f o r t h e co m b i na t io n o f b o t h s e x e s ( m a le s p l u s f e m a l e s ) . *

A s i g n i f i c a n t number o f s c h e d u l e s e x h i b i t e d a p a t t e r n o fm i g ra t io n i n t h e p o s t - la b o r f o r c e ag es t h a t d i f f e r e d f rom t h a to f t h e 1 1 -p a ra m et er model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e d e f i n e d i n eq ua -t i o n ( 1 ) . I n s t e a d o f a r e t i r e m e n t p ea k, t h e a ge p r o f i l e to oko n t h e fo rm o f a n "upw ard s l o p e " . I n s u ch i n s t a n c e s t h e f o ll o w -i n g 9- p ar a me te r m o d i f i c a t i o n o f t h e b a s i c m od el m i g r a t i o n s ch e d-u l e was i n t r o d u c e d

M(x) = a l ex p ( - a l x ) \

The r i g h t - h a n d s i d e o f T a b l e 1 3 , f o r e x am p le , s e t s o u t t h emean p a ra m e t e r e s t i m a t e s of t h i s m od i f ie d fo rm o f t h e modelm i g r a t io n s c h e d u l e f o r t h e N e t h er l an d s .

T a b l e s 1 0 t h r o u g h 14 p r e s e n t a w e a l t h of i n f o r m a t i o n a b o u tn a t i o n a l p a t t e r n s o f m i g r a t i o n by a g e . The p a r a m e t e r s , g i v e ni n c ol um n s, d e f i n e a w id e r a n g e o f m odel m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s .Four r e f e r o n l y t o m i g ra t io n l e v e l : a l l a 2 , a 3 , and c . T he i rv a l ue s a r e f o r a GMR o f u n i t y ; t o o b t a i n c o r r es p o nd i n g v a l u e sf o r o t h e r l e v e l s o f m i g r a t i o n , t h e s e f o u r numbers ne ed t o b em u l t i p l i e d by t h e d e s i r e d l e v e l o f GMR. F or e xa m ple , t h eobs e r ve d GMR f o r f e m a le m i g r a t i o n o u t o f t h e S to ck ho lm r e g i o ni n 1974 was 1 .4 3. M u l t i p l y i n g a l = 0 .029 by 1 .43 g iv es 0 .041 ,t h e a p p r o p r i a t e v a l u e of a w i th which t o g e n e r a t e t h e m ig ra -1t i o n s c h e d u l e h a vi n g a GMR o f 1 . 4 3 .

* T hi s t o t a l do e s n o t i n c l u d e t h e 56 s c h e d u le s ex c lu d ed a s" e x tr e m e" . D ur in g t h e p r o c e s s o f f i t t i n g t h e model sc h ed -u l e t o t h e s e more t h a n 500 i n t e r r e g i o n a l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s ,a f r e q u e n t l y e n c o u n t e r e d p ro bl em was t h e o c c u r r e n c e o f an e g a t i v e v al ue f o r t h e c o n s t an t c . I n a l l suc h i n s t a n c e st h e i n i t i a l v a l ue o f c was s e t e q ua l t o t h e l o w e st o bs er ve dm i g r a t i o n r a t e , an d t h e n o n l i n e a r e s t i m a t i o n p r o ce d u re wass t a r t e d o nc e a g a i n .


40/86

The r e m a i n in g model s c h e d u l e p a r a m e te r s r e f e r t o m i g r a t i o na g e p r o f i l e : a , , p 2 , a 2 , X 2 , p 3 , a 3 , a nd X 3 . T h e i r v a l u e sr e m a i n c o n s t a n t f o r a l l l e v e l s o f t h e GMR. Taken t o g e t h e r ,t h e y d e f i n e t h e a g e p r o f i l e o f m i g r a t i o n f ro m o ne r e g i o n t oa n o t h e r . S c h ed u l es w i t h o u t a r e t i r e m e n t p ea k y i e l d o n l y t h ef o u r p r o f i l e p a ra m et e r s : a l l p 2 , a 2 , a n d X 2 , a nd s c h e d u l e sw i t h a r e t i r e m e n t s l o p e h av e an a d d i t i o n a l p r o f i l e p a r am et er a 3 .

A d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s o f t h e p a ra m e te r s d e f i n i n g t h e v a r i o u sc l a s s e s o f s c h e d u l e s i s b ey on d t i l e s c o p e o f t h i s s t u d y . Never-t h e l e s s a few b a s i c c o n t r a s t s among n a t i o n a l a v e r a g c a g e pr o -f i l e s nay b e u s e f u l l y h i g h l i g h t e d .

L e t u s b e g i n w i t h a n e x a m in a t io n o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e compo-n e n t d e f i n e d by t h e f o u r p a ra m et e r s a ( l e v e l ) , p, ( m e a n a g e ) ,2 L.a 2 ( r a t e o f d e s c e n t ) , an d A , ( r a t e o f a s c e n t ) . The n a t i o n a l

Aa v e ra g e v a l u e s f o r t h e s e pa r a m e t e r s g e n e r a l l y l i e w i t h i n t h ef o l l o w i n g r a n g e s : 0 . 0 5 < a 2 < 0 . 1 0

I n a l l b u t two i n s t a n c e s , t h e f e m al e v a l u e s f o r a 2 , u 2 ,a n d X 2 a r e l a r g e r t h a n t h o s e f o r m a le s . The r e v e r s e i s t h ec a s e f o r p 2 , w i t h t wo e x c e p t i o n s , t h e m os t i m p o r t a n t o f w hi chi s e x h i b i t e d by J a p a n ' s f e m a l e s , who c o n s i s t e n t l y show a n o l d e rmean a g e o f m i g r a t i o n d u r i n g t h e l a b o r f o r c e y e a r s t h a n d o m a l es .T h i s a p p a r e n t l y i s a c on se q ue n ce o f t h e t r a d i t i o n i n J ap an t h a tg i r l s l e a v e t h e f a m i l y home a t a l a t e r a g e t h a n bo ys .

The tw o p a r a m e t e r s d e f i n i n g t h e p r e - l a b o r f o r c e co mp on en t,a l an d a l , g e n e r a l l y l i e w i t h i n t h e r a n g e s 0 .0 1- 0. 03 a nd0 .0 8- 0.1 2, r e s p e c t i v e l y . The e x c e p t i o n s a r e t h e S o v i e tUnion a nd H un ga ry , w hi ch e x h i b i t u n u s u a l l y h i g h v a l u e s f o r a , .U n li k e t h e c a s e o f t h e l a b o r f o r c e com ponen t , c o n s i s t e n t s e xd i f f e r e n t i a l s a r e d i f f i c u l t t o i d e n t i f y .


41/86

A ve ra ge n a t i o n a l m i g r a t i o n a g e p r o f i l e s , l i k e most a gg re -g a t i o n s , h i d e more t h a n t h e y r e v e a l . Some i n s i g h t i n t o t h er a n g e s o f v a r i a t i o n s t h a t a r e a ve r ag e d o u t may be f ou nd byc o n s u l t i n g t h e lo w e r an d u p pe r bo un ds an d s t a n d a r d - d e v i a t i o n -to-mean r a t i o s f o r e a c h s e t o f n a t i o n a l s c he d u le s l i s t e d i nAppendix B o f R og er s a nd C a s t r o ( 1 9 8 1 b ) . T a b l e 15 i l l u s t r a t e s howp a ra m e te r s va ry i n s e v e r a l unave r aged n a t i o n a l s c h e d u l e s , byway o f e xa m p le . The m od el s c h e d u l e s p r e s e n t e d t h e r e d e s c r i b em i g r at i on f lo w s o u t o f and i n t o t h e c a p i t a l r e g i o n s of e ac h o fs i x c o u n t r i e s : H e l s i n k i , F i n l a n d ; B u d a p e st , H un ga ry ; T okyo,Ja pa n ; Amsterdam, t h e Ne the r l a nds ; S tockho lm, Sweden; andLondon, t h e Un ite d Kingdom. A l l a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g ur e 6 .

The m ost a p p a r e n t d i f f e r e n c e b etw ee n t h e a g e p r o f i l e s o ft h e o u tf lo w a nd i n f l o w m i g r at i on s c h e du l e s o f t h e s i x n a t i o n a lc a p i t a l s i s t h e do min an ce o f y oung l a b o r f o r c e m i g r a n t s i n t h ei n f lo w ; t h a t i s , p r o p o r t i o n a t e l y more m i g r a n t s i n t h e youngl a b o r f o r c e a g es a p pe a r i n t h e i n f lo w s c h e d ul e s . The l a r g e rv a l u e s o f t h e p r o d uc t a X i n t h e i n f l o w s c h e d u l e s and o f t h e2 2r a t i o S = a l / a 2 i n t h e o u t f l ow s c he d u le s i n d i c a t e t h i s l a b o r12dominance.

A s ec ond p r o f i l e a t t r i b u t e i s t h e d e g r e e o f a sy mm etr y i nt h e l a b o r f o r c e c om pone nt o f t h e m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e , i . e . , t h er a t i o of t h e r a t e of a s c e n t h2 t o t h e r a t e o f d e s c e n t a 2d e f in e d a s 0 2 . I n a l l b u t t h e J a p a n e s e c a s e , t h e l a b o r f o r c ec u r ve s of t h e c a p i t a l - r e g i o n o u t m i g r a t io n p r o f i l e s a r e morea sy mm et ri c t h a n t h o s e o f t h e c o r r e s po n d in g i n m i g r a t i o n p r o f i l e s .W e r e f e r t o t h i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c a s l a b o r asymmetry.

E xa mining t h e o b se r ve d r a t e s of d e s c e n t of t h e l a b o r ( a )2and p r e - l a b o r f o r c e ( a 1 ) c u r v e s , we f i n d , f o r e xa mp le , t h a tt h ey a r e c l o s e t o b e i ng e q u a l i n t h e o u t f l o w s ch e d u le s ofH e l s i n k i a nd S to ck ho lm a nd a r e h i g h l y u n e q u a l i n t h e c a s e s o fB u d a p e s t, T okyo, a n d A ms terda m. I n f o u r o f t h e s i x c a p i t a l -r e g io n i n f lo w p r o f i l e s a > a l .2 P r o f i l e s w i t h s i g n i f i c a n t l yd i f f e r e n t v a l u e s f o r a 2 and a l a r e s a i d t o be i r r e g u l a r .


42/86

T a b l e 1 5 . P a r a m e t e r s d e f i n i n g o b s e rv e d t o t a l (males p l u s f e m a l e s ) m o de l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e sf o r f l o w s f ro m an d t o c a p i t a l c i t i e s : F i n l a n d , , 1 9 7 4; H u n ga r y , 1 9 7 4; J a p a n , 1 9 7 0;t h e N e t h e r l a n d s , 1 9 7 4; S w ed en , 1 9 7 4; t h e U n i t e d Ki ng do m, 1 9 7 0 .

Finland Hungary JapanParameter From Helsinki To Helsinki From Budapest To Budapest From Tokyo To Tokyo


43/86


44/86


45/86


46/86


47/86

I n c o n c lu s io n , t h e e m p i r i c a l m i g ra t io n d a t a o f s i x i n d u s t r i -a l i z e d n a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h e f o l l o w in g hy p o t h e s is . T he age p r o f i l eo f a t y p i c a l c a p i t a l - r e g i o n i n m ig r a t i o n s c he d ul e i s , i n g e n e r a l ,m or e l a b o r d o m i n a n t and m or e l a b o r s y m m e t r i c t h a n t h e a g e p r o f i l eo f t h e c o r r es p o nd i n g c a p i t a l - r e g i o n o u t m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u le . Noc om par a b le hy po th e s i s c a n be made r e g a r d i ng i t s a n t i c i p a t e d d e gr eeo f i r r e g u l a r i t y .

3 .3 F a m i l i e s o f S c h e d u l e s a n d a B a s i c S t a n d a r d S c h e d u l eThree s e t s o f m o de l m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s h av e be e n d e f i n e d

i n t h i s p a p er : t h e 1 1- pa ra me te r s c h e d u l e w i t h a r e t i r e m e n tp e ak , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e 9- pa ra me te r s c h e d u l e w i t h a r e t i r e m e n ts l o p e , a nd t h e s i m p le 7 -p a ra m et er s c h e d u l e w i t h n e i t h e r a p ea kn o r a s l o p e . Th us w e have a t l e a s t t h r e e b ro ad f a m i l i e s o fs c h e d u l e s .

A d d i t i o n a l d im e ns io n s f o r c l a s s i f y i n g s c h e d u l es i n t o fa mi-l i e s a r e s u g g e s t ed by t h e ab ov e c o mp a ra ti v e a n a l y s i s o f n a t i o n a lm i g r a t i on a ge p r o f i l e s an d t h e b a s i c m e as ur es and d e r i v e d v a r i -a b l e s d e f i n e d i n s e c t i o n 3 .1 . These d im en si on s r e f l e c t d i f f e r -e n t l o c a t i o n s on t h e h o r i z o n t a l a nd v e r t i c a l a x e s o f t h e s che d-u l e , a s w e l l a s d i f f e r e n t r a t i o s o f s l op e s and h e i g h t s .

Of t h e 524 model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s s t u d i e d i n t h i s sec-t i o n , 4 1 2 a r e s e x - s p e c i f i c a n d, of t h e s e , o n l y 336 e x h i b i tn e i t h e r a r e t i r e m e n t pe ak n o r a r e t i r e m e n t s l o p e . B ec au se t h ep a ra m et er e s t i m a t e s d e s c r i b i n g t h e a g e p r o f i l e of p o s t - la b o rf o r c e m ig r a t i on behave e r r a t i c a l l y , w e s h a l l r e s t r i c t o u r s e a r c hf o r f a m i l i e s o f s c h e d u l e s t o t h e s e 164 m al e an d 1 72 f e m al e m od els c h e d u l e s , summary s t a t i s t i c s f o r w hich a r e s e t o u t i n T a bl es16 and 17.

An e x a mi n a ti o n o f t h e p a r a m e t r i c v a l u e s e x h i b i t e d by t h e336 m ig r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s summ ar iz ed i n T a b l e s 1 6 a nd 17 s u gg e s t st h a t a l a r g e f r a c t i o n of t h e v a r i a t i o n shown by t h e s e s c h e d ul e si s a c on s eq u en c e o f c h a ng e s i n t h e v a l u e s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g f o u rp a r am e t er s a n d d e r i v e d v a r i a b l e s : p 2 ' 0 2 , and B 1 2 -


48/86

c, 4m c,mc, km t n *u .4 mm E Zh-l 1k a , am a a,2 2e1 mm a

m r u mW O E


49/86

Tab le 1 7 . E s t im a t e d sum mary s t a t i s t i c s o f p a r a m e t e r s a nd v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e du c eds e t s o f o b se rv ed mod el mig ra t i o n sch ed u le s f o r Sw eden, t h e U n i t ed Kin gd om, an dJ a p a n : f e m a l e s , 1 7 2 s c h e d u l e s .Summary statistics

Parameter Standard deviation/or variable; Lowest value Highest value Mean value Median Mode Standard deviation meanGMR (observed) 0.00388 1.59564 0.19909 0.11590 0.08347 0.24085GMR (model) 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 1.00000 0.00000E 4.17964 60.835 79 15.42092 12.26192 7.01245 9.85544a 0.00526 0.04496 0.02259 0.02209 0.01916 0.00851a1 0.01585 0.41038 0.10698 0.10883 0.11448 0.05091a 0.02207 0.18944 0.07426 0.06935 0.06391 0.02693p2 15.066 10 37.76019 20.63237 19.88280 18.47021 3.50346a2 0.05467 0.33556 0.14355 0.13434 0.12489 0.04993A2 0.08367 1.49869 0.40032 0.37870 0.29592 0.19248c 0.00012 0.00685 0.00347 0.00350 0.00315 0.00139-n 24.51402 37.86541 30.65265 30.53835 29.18701 2.69720X(0-14) 9.37675 31.87480 20.93872 20.68939 19.50087 4.26504X (15-64) 60.55278 81.17286 68.65491 68.07751 67.76981 4.348284(65+) 1.46164 19.56255 10.40638 10.32867 9.60705 3.4040061c 0.89359 192.60318 9.39987 5.95881 10.47907 16.22411

2 0.02828 0.90435 0.34847 0.32367 0.33490 0.17420$12 0.09121 2.48385 0.81472 0.84944 0.92863 0.37720(72 0.38917 12.23371 3.26434 2.89784 2.16585 2.12718x4 10.32012 21.79038 14.51330 14.75022 14.33471 1.953095, 17.03028 30.92059 22.49959 22.46040 21.89189 2.14262X 2.89007 15.09035 7.98629 7.61017 7.16017 2.11207A 23.73040 37.24700 28.50972 28.17807 27.10955 2.47098B 0.00831 0.09111 0.03118 0.02970 0.02901 0.01149


50/86

M i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e s may be e a r l y o r l a t e p e a k in g , d e pe n di n gon t h e l o c a t i o n o f p 2 on t h e h o r i z o n t a l ( a g e ) a x i s . A lth ou ght h i s p a ra m et e r g e n e r a l l y t a k e s on a v a l u e c l o s e t o 2 0, r o u g h lyt h r e e o u t o f f o u r o b s e r v a t i o n s f a l l w i t h i n t h e r an g e 17-25. W es h a l l c a l l t h o s e below a g e 1 9 e a r l y p e a ki n g s c h e d u l e s a nd t h o s eabove 2 2 l a t e p ea ki ng s c h ed u l es .

The r a t i o o f t h e two b a s i c v e r t i c a l p a r a m e te r s , a l and a 2 ,i s a me asu re o f t h e r e l a t i v e i mp or ta nc e o f t h e m i g r a t i o n o fc h i l d r e n i n a model m i g r a t i o n s c h e d u l e . The i n d e x o f c h i l ddependency, 6 1 2 = a l / a 2 , t e n d s t o e x h i b i t a mean v a l u e of a b o u to n e - t h i r d w i t h 80 p e r c e n t o f t h e v a l u e s f a l l i n g b etw een o n e - f i f t hand f o u r - f i f t h s . S c he d ul e s w i t h an i n d ex o f o n e - f i f t h o r l e s sw i l l be s a i d t o be l a b o r d o mi na nt ; t h o s e ab ov e t w o - f i f t h s w i l lbe c a l l e d c h i l d d ep e nd e nt .

M i g r a ti o n s c h e d u l e s w i t h l a b o r f o r c e c om po ne nt s t h a t t a k et h e fo rm o f a r e l a t i v e l y s y mm e tr ic al b e l l s h ap e w i l l be s a i d t obe l a b o r s y m m e t r i c a l . T h e s e s c h e d u l e s w i l l t en d t o e x h i b i t aninde x o f l a bo r a symm et ry ( o = X 2 / c t 2 ) t h a t i s l e s s t h a n 2 . Labor2a sy m me tr ic s c h e d u l e s , o n t h e o t h e r h a nd , w i l l u s u a l l y a s s u m ev a l u e s f o r a 2 o f 5 o r more. The a ve r a ge m ig r a t i on s c h e du le w i l lt e n d t o show a a 2 v a l u e o f a b o u t 4 , w i t h a p p ro x im a te l y f i v e o u to f s i x s c h ed u l es e x h i b i t i n g a a 2 w i t h i n t h e r a ng e 1-8.

F i n a l l y , t h e in de x o f p a r e n t a l - s h i f t r e g u l a r i t y i n manys c h e d u l e s i s c l o s e t o u n i t y , w i t h a pp r ox i ma t el y 70 p e r c e n t o f t h ev a l u e s l y i n g b et we en o n e - t h i r d a nd f o u r - t h i r d s . V a lu es o f B 1 2= ct1/c t2 t h a t a r e l ow er t ha n f o u r - f i f t h s o r h ig h e r t h an s i x - f i f t h sw i l l be c a l l e d i r r e g u l a r .

W e may im ag in e a 3 x 4 c r o s s - c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f m i gr a ti o ns c h e d u l e s t h a t d e f i n e s a do ze n " av e ra g e f a m i l i e s " ( T ab l e 1 8 ) .I n t r o d u c i n g a low an d a h i g h v a l u e f o r e a ch p a ra m e t er g i v e s r i s et o 16 a d d i t i o n a l f a m i l i e s f o r e a ch o f t h e t h r e e c l a s s e s of sch ed -u l e s . T h u s w e may c o n ce iv e of a minimum s e t o f 60 f a m i l i e s ,

REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS IN IIASA NATIONS (1983)

Documents

Transcript of REGIONAL MIGRATION DIFFERENTIALS IN IIASA NATIONS (1983)