Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments

Regional Communities Driving Regional Impact Assessments

Jo MummeryHead

Land Management and Science Branch

Presentation to the

Second International Conference on Climate Impacts Assessments

30th June 2004

Needs for Adaptable Regional Needs for Adaptable Regional Communities Communities

Knowledge Tools

Risk management Cost/benefit Region modelling Integrated assessments

Leadership

What is the likely nature and scale of change?

Regional projections- probabilities, appropriate resolution

Climate variability and extreme events

Infrastructure and community consequences

Adaptive capacity Adaptation options

Leadership and involvement at all levels- gov’ts, industry, community groups, research etc

Training, building capacity

How are we currently placed?How are we currently placed?

Source: CSIRO 2001

Temperature Rainfall

•Knowledge of likely change

- Adequate national projections

Science knowledge needsScience knowledge needs– Resolution - scale for decision making– Probabilistic analysis– Extreme events analysis

• Likely to become more frequent and severe• Huge economic impact - 2002/3 drought: $6.6 billion &

Gov’t assistance of $1.2 billion

• Improved projections of extreme events- observations, specialised and high resolution modelling

– Variability and change links

Current understanding of Current understanding of adaptation needs & options adaptation needs & options

• Adaptation needs & options explored:– Water resources (learning from real 25% reduction in rainfall,

40% reduction in streamflow in sw WA)– Analysis of agricultural options (learning from variability)– Land use suitability – Biodiversity and climate change– Some analysis of transport infrastructure– Risk assessment for human health

• Tools (socio-economic analysis tools lacking)– Sectoral costs of climate change impacts

• Overall- there is still a long way to go!

The way forwardThe way forward

• New Climate Change Adaptation Programme

• Building national capacity– Improving the science/research base

- Assessing the costs of impacts/cost-benefit tools

– Communication and engagement

– Integrated assessment

– Developing impact and adaptation tools

• Partnerships with States and industry to address national priorities (TAR, national risk assessment, consultation) – water, agriculture, coastal cities and infrastructure, key regions (MDB, sw WA, CGBR)

Case study 1: Cairns - Great Barrier Reef region Case study 1: Cairns - Great Barrier Reef region (CGBR) integrated scoping study(CGBR) integrated scoping study

Photos courtesy of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

The Cairns-GBR RegionThe Cairns-GBR Region

Left photo: courtesy of National Oceans Office

The CGBR regionThe CGBR region• Extremely significant natural values (2 World Heritage

Areas)

• Regional economy relies heavily on tourism and agriculture

• Population around 250,000

• Gross regional product: $4.4 billion pa

Tourism worth approx. $1 billion pa

• Vulnerable to increased ocean & atmospheric temperatures, sea level rise, extreme events (cyclones, storm surges)

• Vulnerability identified in TAR

Overall design - broad Overall design - broad stakeholder base the keystakeholder base the key

• Scoping study for full assessment – benefit transfer opportunities• 150 stakeholder invited to workshops supported by expert

presentations. Stakeholders split into 3 groups• Workshops steps:

1. Stakeholders identify current climate issues & key regional sensitivities supported by expert presentations

2. Stakeholders determine non-climate stresses & climate change impacts on region, industries & communities

3. Stakeholders identify possible actions to deal with impacts, including barriers & synergies

4. Stakeholders prioritise issues & actions for the region

Step 1: climate dependenciesStep 1: climate dependencies• Natural ecosystem sustainability susceptible to temp, rf and extreme events

• Tourism – temp extremes in summer (visitor number decline during coral bleaching periods)

• Human health – vector borne diseases climate links (certain mosquitoes more difficult to control with increasing temp and rf)

• Urban infrastructure – housing design and water provision susceptible to extreme events

• Agriculture – variability primary productivity driver. Control of pests and weeds influenced by temp, rf. Fisheries – cyclones destroy habitat

• Water resources – irrigation and environmental flows dependent on variations in rf and evaporation, extreme events relevant

• Overall – no surprises, but immensely valuable for stakeholders. Provided solid information base for consideration of climate change and impacts

Step 2: climate change impactsStep 2: climate change impacts• Stakeholders developed matrices linking sector issues to climate

attributes

• Agriculture (sugar, horticulture, cattle/beef)

• Strongly climate dependent with varying impacts between industries• Potential short-term in plant production (CO2-fertilisation)• More than offset by long-term moisture availability• Changes in pest/weed incidence bring greater stress and increase costs• Heat stress on livestock – reduced milk yield (4-9%)• Reduced pasture production (10-30% by 2070)

Natural systems and biodiversityMajor issue – magnitude of biodiversity loss, limited reversibility

• Sea level rise impact on coastal ecosystems (e.g. mangroves)• Reduced moisture for wet tropical rainforests• Endemic vertebrates reduced distribution by 60% with 1°C • Weed spread to upland areas (links to other stresses)

Step 2: climate change impacts ctdStep 2: climate change impacts ctd

• Water resources– Combination of population growth and increases in temp

and evaporation will increase demand– Possible reduced water quality through increased frequency

of toxic algal blooms. Might be offset by more extreme rainfall events

– Extreme rainfall events will increase amount of suspended sediment, negative flow-on effects on reef

– Illustrates complexity of stakeholder identified interactions– Challenges to stormwater infrastructure with extreme

rainfall events

– Coastal regions, GBR intense cyclones and storm surges: significant damage to infrastructure

and essential services (Figure below- storm surge impact on Cairns)

• Ocean warming, sea level rise, coral bleaching

Current 1-in-100 year storm surge extent 1-in-100 year storm surge extent under 2xCO2

conditions

Step 3: PStep 3: Possible adaptation actionsossible adaptation actions• Adaptation options were identified by stakeholders eg

– Agriculture and water• Cropping and grazing: water efficiency, species selection and modify management cycles

– Pests, diseases & health• Design appropriate weed and pest controls (area targeted, improved detection), improve

extreme weather early warning systems

– Natural systems and GBR• Lower other environmental stresses to improve adaptive capacity• Mangrove buffer to facilitate inland retreat (other benefits)

– Coastal and urban regions• Rehabilitate erosion prone coastal areas• New building standards for more extreme weather, development planning• Stormwater design

Step 4: PStep 4: Prioritise issues & actions rioritise issues & actions for the regionfor the region

• Stakeholder were asked to prioritise impact importance and adaptation options- Priority 1: Water quality and availability– Priority 2: The Great Barrier Reef and tourism– Priority 3: Agriculture– Etc

• Regional economic issues drove priority setting• Addressing knowledge gaps a cross-cutting priority,

particularly socio-economic impacts, higher resolution scenarios, and integrated analyses

Some challenges and research Some challenges and research priorities revealed from studypriorities revealed from study

• Regional projections - spatially understand vulnerability and risk at temporal and spatial scales needed for decision-making

• Limited understanding of links between biophysical & socio-economic impacts - integrated assessments for key sectors needed, and tools to assess multiple impacts at regional scale

• Regional modelling of land use and socio-economic change – needed to examine trade-offs between different land uses and sectors under different scenarios

• Need to incorporate climate change in sectoral models

• Enhanced monitoring needed eg sea level rise

Lessons and where to from hereLessons and where to from here• Need to formalise adaptation – better links between Govts and

industry, and removal of inconsistent policies• Utilising communication networks – options, what works• Adaptation strategies require engagement of regional authority,

community and industry– Local solutions to local problems

• AGO is investigating conducting a full integrated assessment of the region in collaboration with State Governments and research agencies

• Potential benefit transfer of methods to other regions

Case Study 2: planning for climate changeCase Study 2: planning for climate change

Planning for climate changePlanning for climate change

• The context – Regional and Local Government planners have a key role in

helping communities adapt to climate change and planning decisions need to consider climate change

– Many difficult and potentially costly impacts

• The project– The PIA: Sustainable Regional and Urban Communities

Adapting to Climate Change

Regional and urban communities Regional and urban communities adapting to climate changeadapting to climate change

• Four-stage project aimed at preparing our communities and industries for the impacts associated with climate change through delivery of toolkit for planners

• Project has been driven and undertaken by a professional body (the Planning Institute of Australia) concerned about climate change impacts

• Sponsored by diverse interest groups (Govts, Insurance Australia Group, City Councils etc)

•Into stage 3 and already award winning process!

The stagesThe stages

1. Scoping study- consultation to establish the project need

2. Issues paper- establishing the basis for engagement of planners

3. Developing the tools for planners and communities

4. Refining tools and capacity building through regional participation

Stage 1- establishing the needStage 1- establishing the need

• Scoping study to identify the current state of knowledge in the planning profession

• Extensive stakeholder consultation – 50 participants were interviewed spanning

government and consultant planners plus insurance representatives

Stage 1: resultsStage 1: results

Importance of climate change for planners' professional development

0% 10%

26%

44%

20%

no relevance

some relevance

relevant to core area

important

critically important

Stage 1: resultsStage 1: results• No current tools, but suggestions included

– Risk management framework– Land capability– Vulnerability assessment– Community consultation

• Regional level most appropriate for climate change• Forecasts are seen as too uncertain and lack political and

community support • There is an expectation nationally and internationally that

planning will do 'something'. (PIA 2002)

Stage 2: establishing the basisStage 2: establishing the basis

• A series of issues papers looking at planning for climate change adaptation– Climate science – Natural environment– Built environment– Socio-legal considerations

Peer reviewed at a workshop

Stage 2 results - hot off the press!Stage 2 results - hot off the press!

Stage 2 results - ctdStage 2 results - ctd

(PIA 2002)

:• Planners need to be proactive in advising govts/statutory agencies on risks and in working with communities on adaptation options

• Potential legal liability – duty of care to the community (compensation claims, “do nothing” could lead to a claim of negligence)

• Planning measures to limit risk important – need to adopt a precautionary approach

• Awareness of potential implications for insurance premiums or availability (eg a 25% increase in peak wind gusts can

generate a 6.5 fold increase in building claims, impacting on insurance industry’s underwriting capacity in vulnerable regions)

Planning considerationsPlanning considerationsLand use

(PIA 2002)

Stage 3: establishing the toolsStage 3: establishing the tools

• Based on needs identified by stakeholders, planning tools to be developed to help planners and communities address adaptation to climate change.

• A complex framework spanning regional land use planning, natural resource management planning, local government planning schemes and laws

• Systematic tools based on risk assessment that relate to infrastructure planning, development assessment guidelines, issues for local legislation, regional strategies

Stage 4: fine tuning and capacity Stage 4: fine tuning and capacity buildingbuilding

• Issues papers and tools to be workshopped through Planning Institute

• Professional development to be driven by industry association

• Tool kit to be web based and updated

Lessons and where to from hereLessons and where to from here

• Stages 3 and 4 beckons…..

• Increased awareness and regional capacity

• Project framework is applicable to other regions

• Stakeholder involvement and ownership are the keys to success

ConclusionConclusion• Stakeholder involvement is essential in effective

approaches to impact assessment and adaptation– Adaptation options and actions site specific and evolve over

time. Science enhanced by local knowledge– Involvement processes take time and resources

• Aspects of climate changesite specific but assessment methods benefit transfer

• Further assessments and tools to come from National Climate Change Adaptation Program

• Challenge to science community to support community processes through targeted and relevant information

Further informationFurther information• Impacts and adaptation in Australia

• www.greenhouse.gov.au – links to science and impacts

• Case studies– Cairns/Great Barrier Reef

• www.greenhouse.gov.au - links to science and impacts

• report to be posted shortly

– Planning Institute of Australia• http://www.planning.org.au/qld/climatechange/