Regional climate modeling, update on the TFRCD and CORDEX
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Regional climate modeling,Regional climate modeling,update on the TFRCD and update on the TFRCD and
CORDEX CORDEX
Filippo Giorgi*, Colin Jones**Filippo Giorgi*, Colin Jones***Abdus Salam ICTP*Abdus Salam ICTP
**SMHI**SMHI
JSC-31, Antalya, 15-20 February, 2010JSC-31, Antalya, 15-20 February, 2010
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Task Force on Regional Climate Downscaling
(TFRCD) • Mandate (1 year): Design a framework to
– Evaluate and possibly improve RCD models and techniques– Provide a coordinated set of RCD-based projections/predictions
for regions worldwide– Facilitate the communication with the impact community and the
involvement of the research community from developing countries
• Membership (December 2008)– F. Giorgi (co-chair), C. Jones (co-chair), J.H. Christensen (DK),
P. Duffy (USA), G. Flato (Can), W. Gutowski (USA), B. Hewitson (SAF), Krishna Kumar (In), W.T. Kwon (Kor), R. Laprise (Can.), C. Menendez (AR), J. Murphy (UK), I. Nyang (Sen.)
• WCRP Connections– WGCM (Giorgi), WGNE (C. Jones)
• Meetings– Toulouse 11-13 February 2009 – Lund, 4-8 May 2009– Teleconference, September 14 2009– Email discussions
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Uncertainty inUncertainty inregional climateregional climate
projectionprojection
Emis./Conc.Emis./Conc.(Multiple(Multiple
Scenarios)Scenarios)
AOGCM ConfigurationAOGCM Configuration(Multiple AOGCMs)(Multiple AOGCMs)
Internal variabilityInternal variability(Multiple realizations)(Multiple realizations)
RCD ConfigurationRCD Configuration(Multiple models)(Multiple models)
RCD approachRCD approach(Multiple RCD methods)(Multiple RCD methods)
Regional coverRegional cover(Multiple regions)(Multiple regions)
Sources of uncertainty in RCD-based projectionsSources of uncertainty in RCD-based projectionsThe Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling The Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling
Experiment (CORDEX)Experiment (CORDEX)
Systematic ErrorsSystematic Errors(Model eval./impr.)(Model eval./impr.)
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CORDEX Phase I experiment design CORDEX Phase I experiment design
Model Evaluation Model Evaluation FrameworkFramework
Climate ProjectionClimate ProjectionFrameworkFramework
ERA-Interim LBC ERA-Interim LBC 1989-20071989-2007
Multiple AOGCMsMultiple AOGCMs
RCP4.5, RCP8.5RCP4.5, RCP8.51951-2100 or timeslices1951-2100 or timeslices
Decadal predictionsDecadal predictions1980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-20351980-2010, 1990-2000, 2005-2035
Multiple regions Multiple regions (Initial focus on Africa)(Initial focus on Africa)50 km grid spacing50 km grid spacing
Regional AnalysisRegional AnalysisRegional DatabanksRegional Databanks
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CORDEX domainsCORDEX domains
NARCCAPNARCCAP
CLARISCLARIS
ENSEMBLESENSEMBLES
RCMIPRCMIP
ARCMIPARCMIP
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Other CORDEX activities/issues• Formation of regional diagnostics/evaluation
teams– Compile suitable metrics for model evaluation– Gather relevant observational datasets
• Commitment by CMIP5 global modeling groups to provide fields for model nesting for the selected experiments
• Standardized output format following (as closely as possible) the CMIP5 protocol
• Creation of CORDEX databanks (DMI, KMA)
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CORDEX: Progress to date (I)• Publication describing the CORDEX framework
and PHASE I plan.– Giorgi, Jones, Asrar, WMO Bulletin, July 2009.
• Creation of a CORDEX web-site and an email server (IA State)– http://wcrp.ipsl.jussieu.fr/RCD_Projects/CORDEX/CORD
EX.html
• Distribution of ERA-Interim reanalysis fields (SMHI)• Formation of Africa diagnostic team/metrics lead
by B. Hewitson (UCT)– Meeting in Cape-Town (UCT) in April 2010 – Should be in touch with WGCM and WGNE
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CORDEX: Progress to date (II)• Numerous CORDEX presentations at major meetings
– WCC, EGU, AGU, GREENHOUSE09 etc.• Purchase of data server at DMI for CORDEX
databank• Many groups have expressed interest in participating
in CORDEX.• Regional CORDEX programs are self-organizing
– Med-CORDEX (Coupled ocean-atmosphere RCMs)– Euro-CORDEX (High resolution, dx=10-12 km)
• Several groups completed or are completing the ERA-Interim driven simulations over one or more domains – ICTP/RegCM, SMHI/RACMO, MPI/REMO, HC/PRECIS,
WRF, DMI/HIRHAM, CNRS/Aladin, probably others
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Precipitation, 1997-2007
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Precipitation, 1997-2007
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CORDEX: Progress to date (III)
• A number of CORDEX presentations planned at EGU2010 regional modeling session– Side meeting to review progress and plans for future
simulations
• WCRP workshop planned in June 2010 in Lille (Fr.) to discuss the treatment of regional climate information in the IPCC AR5– Participation of both WGI and WGII experts– Next TFRCD meeting planned
• Workshop planned in spring of 2011 at ICTP for a comprehensive evaluation of the first CORDEX results
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The TFRCD: Some considerations (I) • In general, the CORDEX effort has been very
successful– Successful design and implementation of a Phase I plan– Very positive response by the RCD community– Simulations already under way– CORDEX widely advertised at major meetings and
conferences
• The CORDEX effort should definitely be continued and should be overseen by a coordinating body in contact with both WGCM and WGNE
• However ….
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The TFRCD: Some considerations (II)
• Only part of the TFRCD members have been regularly active– Some changes may be required?
• Still insufficient involvement of the statistical downscaling, impact and developing country communities
• So far participation to CORDEX has been on a voluntary and cost-free basis– Time may be getting ripe to start “Fund-raising” for
CORDEX
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The future of the TFRCD
• What should the TFRCD become?– A WGCM-like working group (within a differently structured
WCRP?)– A small body within WGCM regularly in contact with WGNE
and the JSC– Remain a task force with a focused mandate
• No consensus reached within the TFRCD– Fear that a small body might prevent a wide-ranging
involvement of the scientific community
• Recommendation: Extend the mandate of the TFRCD for another year until CORDEX develops further and then make a more informed decision
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THANK YOUTHANK YOU