Kashmir ContextKashmir Context

Regional Climate Change & Water Regional Climate Change & Water CrisisCrisis

Presented by Presented by

Saeed Ahmed PhD Scholar @Saeed Ahmed PhD Scholar @

Kashmir Day Colombo Kashmir Day Colombo

Spread of PresentationSpread of Presentation

Part 1: Part 1: • Climate Change & Its Impacts on South AsiaClimate Change & Its Impacts on South Asia

Part 2: Part 2: • South Asian Water IssuesSouth Asian Water Issues

Part 3: Part 3: • How Kashmir Figures in this all?How Kashmir Figures in this all?

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Climate Change: Some Climate Change: Some DefinitionsDefinitions

Weather: The state of the atmosphere at a given time and place, with respect to the variables such as temperature, moisture, pressure etc.

Climate: Average weather. Statistical description of mean weather conditions over a period of several years, typically 2-3 decades.

Climate Change: Climate Change in excess of natural variability, attributable to human activity.

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• 0.6 0.6 0 0 C increase in average C increase in average global temperature during the last global temperature during the last century century (11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)(11 of last 12 years being warmest since 1850, with 1998 being on top.)

• Increase by Increase by 1.1-6.4 1.1-6.4 0 0 CC projected over the 21 projected over the 21stst Century, with Century, with most likely range being 1.8-4.0 most likely range being 1.8-4.0 0 0 C ;C ;

• Associated to this will be large changes (Associated to this will be large changes (both, increases and both, increases and decreases) decreases) of temperature and precipitation in different world of temperature and precipitation in different world regions;regions;

• Frequency and intensity of Frequency and intensity of extreme climatic eventsextreme climatic events (severe (severe cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase cyclonic storms, floods, droughts etc.) will increase considerably;considerably;

• Large Large scale melting of mountain glaciers scale melting of mountain glaciers and polar ice caps, and polar ice caps, particularly the Arctic;particularly the Arctic;

• Substantial Substantial rise in sea levelrise in sea level..

Major FindingsMajor Findings

Paris Climate Conference Paris Climate Conference 20152015

195 Nations agree to cut gas emissions to 195 Nations agree to cut gas emissions to limit the rise in global temperatures to limit the rise in global temperatures to below 2 degree Celsius compared to pre-below 2 degree Celsius compared to pre-industrial levelsindustrial levels

Paris agreement has reiterated the goal of Paris agreement has reiterated the goal of mobilizing $100 billion/Year starting 2020 mobilizing $100 billion/Year starting 2020

Climate Change Impact in Climate Change Impact in South Asia South Asia

Economies rely mainly on agriculture, Economies rely mainly on agriculture, natural resources, forestry and fisheries natural resources, forestry and fisheries sectors. sectors.

Increased risk of floods and droughts, Increased risk of floods and droughts, In fact, although South Asia has low GHG In fact, although South Asia has low GHG

emissions, climate change has already emissions, climate change has already deeply affected the economic growth and deeply affected the economic growth and development of the region. development of the region.

Impacts on South AsiaImpacts on South Asia

About 70% of South Asians live in rural About 70% of South Asians live in rural area and account for about 75% of the area and account for about 75% of the poor, who are the most impacted by poor, who are the most impacted by climate change. climate change.

Some of the projected impacts of climate Some of the projected impacts of climate change on main sectors that specifically change on main sectors that specifically apply to the South Asia can have worse apply to the South Asia can have worse impacts on Human Development in the impacts on Human Development in the region. region.

Four Critical Areas to look forFour Critical Areas to look for

1.1. AgricultureAgriculture

2.2. Coastal SystemCoastal System

3.3. EcosystemEcosystem

4.4. Fresh WaterFresh Water

RESULTING INRESULTING INFood Security Food Security challengechallengeWater ChallengeWater ChallengeClimate Extreme Climate Extreme Events HazardsEvents HazardsImpacts on other Impacts on other EcosystemsEcosystems

AgricultureAgriculture 15-30 % decline in the productivity of most 15-30 % decline in the productivity of most

cereals and rice across the regioncereals and rice across the region crop yields are expected to decrease up to crop yields are expected to decrease up to

30% in the region30% in the region irrigation demand for agriculture in arid irrigation demand for agriculture in arid

and semi-arid regions is likely to increase and semi-arid regions is likely to increase by 10% for temperature increase by 1%by 10% for temperature increase by 1%

Coastal SystemCoastal System Sea-level rise is the most obvious climate-Sea-level rise is the most obvious climate-

related impact in coastal areas. related impact in coastal areas. The impacts of sea level rise will be mostly The impacts of sea level rise will be mostly

felt in Bangladesh, Maldives, and east felt in Bangladesh, Maldives, and east India by poor rural people, where India by poor rural people, where significant economic and social disruption significant economic and social disruption will occur, with environmental refugees will occur, with environmental refugees further pressing already stressed cities.further pressing already stressed cities.

Densely populated low-lying areas of Densely populated low-lying areas of mega deltas are at risk. mega deltas are at risk.

EcosystemEcosystem Sea-level rise and increases in sea-

surface temperature are the most probable major climate change-related stresses on coastal ecosystems

Himalayan ecosystems are vulnerable to Himalayan ecosystems are vulnerable to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and flash Glacial Lake Outburst Floods and flash floodsfloods

Potential increases in evapotranspiration Potential increases in evapotranspiration and rainfall variability and rainfall variability

Fresh WaterFresh Water Meltwater from Himalayan glaciers - which Meltwater from Himalayan glaciers - which

plays a key role in the provision of water to plays a key role in the provision of water to the region -and snowfields currently the region -and snowfields currently supplies up to 85% of the dry season flow supplies up to 85% of the dry season flow of the great rivers of the Northern Indian of the great rivers of the Northern Indian Plain. Plain.

This could be reduced to about 30% of its This could be reduced to about 30% of its current contribution over the next 50 current contribution over the next 50 years, if forecast of climate change and years, if forecast of climate change and glacial retreat are realized. glacial retreat are realized.

VVulnerability of Water Resources ulnerability of Water Resources to Climate Change: South Asiato Climate Change: South Asia

Increased variability of Monsoon More rapid recession of HKH Glaciers

threatening IRS Flows Shortage of irrigation water for agriculture,

water for industrial and domestic sectors. Increased risks of floods and droughts

Melting of GlaciersMelting of Glaciers Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water Glaciers are life line of Pakistani rivers. The total water

storage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAFstorage in glaciers in Upper Indus Basin (UIB) is 2,200 MAF

Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% Melt water from these Glaciers contributes more than 60% to the flows from UIB.to the flows from UIB.

International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ International Commission for Snow and Ice (ICSI) “ (1999(1999): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part ): Glaciers in Himalayas are receding faster than in any other part of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them of the world and, if the present rate continue, the likelihood of them disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.disappearing by the year 2035 is very high”.

World Bank (2006World Bank (2006): ): Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing Western Himalayan glaciers will retreat for the next 50 years causing increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, increase of Indus River flows. Then the glacier reservoirs will be empty, resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent resulting in decrease of flows by up to 30% to 40% over the subsequent fifty years.fifty years.

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Changes in Gangotri Glacier, Indian Himalaya

This composite ASTER image shows how the Gangotri Glacier terminus has retracted since 1780. Contour lines are approximate. (Image by Jesse Allen, Earth Observatory; based on data provided by the ASTER Science Team; glacier retreat boundaries courtesy the La1515nd Processes Distributed Active Archive Center)

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1989-10-09 2000-10-31

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1992-10-15 2000-10-29060212/0029

GLOFS in South AsiaGLOFS in South Asia As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind As glaciers retreat, glacial lakes form behind

moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach moraine or ice 'dams’. These can breach anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake anytime leading to floods known as Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:Outburst Floods (GLOFs) which can destroy:

property, property, farms, farms, socio-economic infrastructure socio-economic infrastructure and livelihood of mountain people and livelihood of mountain people and downstream communities. and downstream communities.

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Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers Projected Changes in HKH Glaciers

IPCC AR4 (2007): IPCC AR4 (2007): Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next Glacier melt in the Himalayas is projected to increase flooding within next two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the two to three decades. This will be followed by decreased river flows as the glaciers recede. glaciers recede.

Hewitt (2005):Hewitt (2005): reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the reported widespread evidence of glacier expansion in the late 1990s in the Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain Central Karakoram, in contrast to a worldwide decline of mountain glaciers. glaciers.

These conflicting findings make the impact of climate changeThese conflicting findings make the impact of climate change on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain. on Karakoram glaciers and Indus River flows very uncertain.

Coping with the Climate Coping with the Climate ChangeChange

Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of Assessment of vulnerability, risk and possible impacts of vulnerable areas and communitiesvulnerable areas and communities

Preparedness for disaster and risk managementPreparedness for disaster and risk management Development of early warning systemDevelopment of early warning system Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-Reducing the vulnerability to livelihoods through infra-

structural changes structural changes Developing new and innovative farm production practices, Developing new and innovative farm production practices,

including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques including new crop varieties and irrigation techniques Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their Empowering communities and local stakeholders for their

active participation in vulnerability assessment and active participation in vulnerability assessment and implementation of adaptation implementation of adaptation

Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at Mainstreaming climate change into development planning at all scales, levels and sectors all scales, levels and sectors

A twentieth century British poet WH Auden, once said,

“Thousands have lived without love, not one without water.”

His words are especially relevant in the context of South Asia, which is home to more than a fifth of the world’s population and where the economies are largely dependent upon agriculture

South Asian Conundrum

• Unfortunately, South Asian countries, particularly India and Pakistan, have both faced challenges in water management and proper river basin management. The consequence of this has been a severe water crisis, which has a bearing on both ground and surface water.

• A cursory glance at the data on fresh water availability per person, per year reveals this vulnerability.

• South Asia’s renewable freshwater resources are about 1,200 cubic meters per capita.

• In comparison, a large number of countries have between 2,500 – 15,000 cubic meters per capita.

• Some like Canada and Norway have over 70,000 cubic meters per capita.

• The system of rivers in the Indus basin comprises 2,000 miles of the river Indus and its five tributaries from the East — Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas and Sutlej, with an aggregate length of 2,800 miles. Most of the upper reaches of the Indus basin lie in India.

• All these rivers combine in Mithankot in Pakistan and flow into the Arabian Sea near Karachi.

• The Indus system of rivers has been used for irrigation ever since civilization took root in the area. The water disputes too date back to the pre-partition era, when there were significant inter-state differences between Punjab, Sindh, Bahawalpur and Bikaner.

Acrimony has a Acrimony has a Historical BaggageHistorical Baggage

• The partition of British IndiaThe partition of British India• Newly formed states at odds without any Newly formed states at odds without any

sharing and managing mechanism for sharing and managing mechanism for essentially a cohesive and unitary essentially a cohesive and unitary network of irrigation. network of irrigation.

• Especially when Sources of Water Especially when Sources of Water became bone of contentionbecame bone of contention

Regional Relations to look forRegional Relations to look for

India and Pakistan China and India India and Bangladesh China and Pakistan Nepal and India

But not in IsolationBut not in Isolation Keep an eye on

Super Powers Bandwagons and these regional players like

Russia & Region China & Region US and Region

How Kashmir Factors in this all?

Recent PastRecent Past 1 April 1948: First Tap Closure by India on 1 April 1948: First Tap Closure by India on

Pakistan (Punjab)Pakistan (Punjab) 4 May 1948 Dominion Accord: An Inter-4 May 1948 Dominion Accord: An Inter-

state agreement to open waters against state agreement to open waters against paymentpayment

19 Sept 1960: Indus Water Treaty Ayub-19 Sept 1960: Indus Water Treaty Ayub-Nehru Signs in KarachiNehru Signs in Karachi

1962 Indo-Chinese War1962 Indo-Chinese War 1971 India-Bangladesh Agreement 1971 India-Bangladesh Agreement

Indus Water TreatyIndus Water Treaty Brokered by the Brokered by the World BankWorld Bank signed in 1960. signed in 1960. Western rivers (For Pakistan’s Use)Western rivers (For Pakistan’s Use)

• IndusIndus• Jhelum Jhelum • Chenab Chenab

Eastern rivers (For India’s Use)Eastern rivers (For India’s Use)• SutlejSutlej• Beas Beas • RaviRavi• The countries agree to exchange data and co-operate in matters The countries agree to exchange data and co-operate in matters

related to the treaty thru related to the treaty thru Permanent Indus CommissionPermanent Indus Commission, with a , with a commissioner appointed by each country.commissioner appointed by each country.

• Global Laws reveal that Upper Riparian countries Global Laws reveal that Upper Riparian countries would not interfere with the water flow to ensure would not interfere with the water flow to ensure smooth and uninterrupted supply of water to smooth and uninterrupted supply of water to countries lying in lower riparian countries lying in lower riparian

South Asian Water ConflictsSouth Asian Water ConflictsLEVELS OF CONFLICT LEVELS OF CONFLICT

• LOCAL LEVELLOCAL LEVEL

Between societal groups over access to a water point; or between the state and Between societal groups over access to a water point; or between the state and people affected by the construction of a dam.people affected by the construction of a dam.

• NATIONAL LEVELNATIONAL LEVEL

Between different interest groups (farmers, industry, tourism, environmentalists) Between different interest groups (farmers, industry, tourism, environmentalists) in relation to national policies affecting water management, for example over in relation to national policies affecting water management, for example over the reallocation of water between economic sectors.the reallocation of water between economic sectors.

• INTERNATIONAL LEVELINTERNATIONAL LEVEL

Between upstream and downstream states over the use of shared rivers.Between upstream and downstream states over the use of shared rivers.

• GLOBAL LEVELGLOBAL LEVELBetween food exporters and food importers in relation Between food exporters and food importers in relation

to the world food market.to the world food market.

India’s Internal ChaosIndia’s Internal Chaos

INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTSINTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS

Indo-China disputeIndo-China dispute

Indo-Pakistan Indo-Pakistan disputedispute

China and IndiaChina and India The Brahmaputra River has The Brahmaputra River has

caused tension between caused tension between India and China and could India and China and could be a flashpoint for two of the be a flashpoint for two of the world's biggest armies.world's biggest armies.

In 2000, India accused China In 2000, India accused China of not sharing information of of not sharing information of the river's status in the run the river's status in the run up to landslides in Tibet up to landslides in Tibet which caused floods in which caused floods in northeastern India and northeastern India and Bangladesh.Bangladesh.

China and IndiaChina and India Chinese proposals to divert the river have Chinese proposals to divert the river have

concerned Delhi.concerned Delhi. China, nevertheless maintains that it has China, nevertheless maintains that it has

no plans to divert the waters of the no plans to divert the waters of the Brahmaputra.Brahmaputra.

However, considering China’s usual However, considering China’s usual reluctance to share information and the reluctance to share information and the absence of a water sharing treaty between absence of a water sharing treaty between the two, this becomes a major concern for the two, this becomes a major concern for India. India.

China and IndiaChina and India Analysts propose that the Brahmaputra issue Analysts propose that the Brahmaputra issue

can be a potential reason for a possible 2nd can be a potential reason for a possible 2nd INDO-CHINA WAR.INDO-CHINA WAR.

INDIA-PAKISTAN INDIA-PAKISTAN WATER DISPUTE!WATER DISPUTE!

Four Wars Over Kashmir

1948196519711999

& Several Face Offs

UNFORTUNATELY, NO ONE IS FREE FROM UNFORTUNATELY, NO ONE IS FREE FROM WATER ROBLEMS…WATER ROBLEMS…

MIDDLE WEST: Golan highs are an important water resource which has been an ongoing problem in the Palestine - Israel conflict.

GERMANY: Potash pollution of the Rhine basin, a trans-border issue

TURKEY: The cross-border water disputes in Mesopotamia that involve Turkey, Iraq and Syria.

ITALY: Water shortage is a problem in several dry areas of Italy, being Sicily the most important one. Also, Po regulations creates tensions among users).

Is there a way out?Is there a way out? Yes, where there is a will there is a way Yes, where there is a will there is a way But for that we need to strive & Hope for But for that we need to strive & Hope for

few things likefew things like• Realization and AwarenessRealization and Awareness• Diplomacy for HumanityDiplomacy for Humanity• Technical Knowledge Technical Knowledge • Financial AllocationsFinancial Allocations• Improved Water GovernanceImproved Water Governance

But HowBut How• Political Maturity and HonestyPolitical Maturity and Honesty• Meaningful Confidence Building MeasuresMeaningful Confidence Building Measures• Water Governance and ManagementWater Governance and Management• Quell the itching for Proxy WarsQuell the itching for Proxy Wars• Strengthening Social and Human Strengthening Social and Human

Development Indicators such as Education, Development Indicators such as Education, Health, Infrastructures and DRR ManagementHealth, Infrastructures and DRR Management

• Allocation of national budgets on social Allocation of national budgets on social developmentdevelopment

We Can Avoid Dooms Day We Can Avoid Dooms Day ScenariosScenarios

Developing Mutual Respect & Honour by Developing Mutual Respect & Honour by treating each other at equal footingtreating each other at equal footing

Improving Trade and Financial Improving Trade and Financial interdependenceinterdependence

Revitalizing Regional dead-horses like Revitalizing Regional dead-horses like SAARC and its subsidiaries SAFTASAARC and its subsidiaries SAFTA

Weighing Super Power Games against Weighing Super Power Games against National and Regional interestsNational and Regional interests

Respecting Citizens who wants Peace, Respecting Citizens who wants Peace, Health and Viable Living OptionsHealth and Viable Living Options

Thank youThank you