Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities.
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Refugees, Food Security, and Resilience in Host Communities
A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen
http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities
Jean-François MaystadtLICOS & IFPRI
Email: [email protected]@jfmaystadt
IFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)
LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
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Conflict and Food Security
• While food security has improved globally over the past decades, it remains a major problem in areas of conflict.
• Conflicts have also been found to have detrimental effects on neighboring countries
• Understanding the causes of conflict (http://www.ifpri.org/publication/building-resilience-conflict-through-food-security-policies-and-programs) and spillovers mechanisms is needed to build resilience
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The burden of hosting refugees?“Major refugee movements can cause food-security problems both among the refugees themselves and in the receiving areas” (FAO 1996, sect; 15)”
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities
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A misleading correlation
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014). Left panel: raw correlation ; Right panel: net of country fixed effects.
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Why is the correlation misleading?
• Correlation is not causality : Most refugeesare hosted in neighboring countries facingfood-security problems for many otherreasons
• No systematic relationship or diluted intonational statistics?
• More fundamentaly, cross-country analysis is too limited to shed light on complex interactions between refugees and hosts
• Too short-sighted view in contrast with the protracted nature of most refugee situations
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Taking stock of the evidence
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Key lessons learned (1)
• Although more evidence is needed, current focus on health and violence too limited
• Role of labor and good markets as adaptationmechanisms (see Tanzania, Kenya, Darfur, Uganda)
• Immediate upward pressure on nonaid prices affects food accessibility but both food aid and the incentives to produce more can have second-order effects on prices (Werker 2007, Alix-garciaand Saah 2010, Alix-Garcia et al. 2012)
• Labor supply by refugees in some cases (e.g. Tanzania) leads tolarge production increase
• Large distributional effects (Maystadt and Verwimp 2014, Kreibaum 2013, Alix-Garcia and Bartlett 2012)
• Policy objective: Strengthen adaptative capacities of the host
• Increased awareness for env. degradation should bepursued
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Key lessons learned (2)
• Beyond market mechanisms, provision of localpublic goods likely to strengthen the capacities of the poor
• Little is known about the long-term impact, while that is certainly key for transitioningfrom humanitarian assistance todevelopmental efforts
• Opportunity to capitalize on investments such as improved road infrastructure and social networks(Maystadt and Duranton 2014)
• More evidence would help design appropriate solutionsto protracted refugee situations
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Moving the research agenda forward
• More evidence (based on mixed methods) togeneralize findings, draw policy guidelines andunderstand the legacy of the refugee inflows
• Undertake deeper analysis of policy options to solve protracted refugee situations and toassess relative efficiency of different interventions
• Better align incentives of policymakers, practitioners, and researchers
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APPENDIX
A. Mabiso, J.-F. Maystadt, J. Vandercasteelen, and K. Hirvonen
LICOS & IFPRIEmail: [email protected]
@jfmaystadtIFPRI 2020 Conference (May 15, 2014)
LICOS Centre for Institutions and Economic Performance
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Recent surge in displacement
Source: Mabiso et al. (2014): http://www.ifpri.org/publication/refugees-food-security-and-resilience-host-communities
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Appendix - Health
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Appendix – Production, transport and trade
Maystadt and Duranton (2014)
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Appendix – Food and nonfood prices
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Appendix - Labor