Refrigerant environment and legislative update the future of refrigerants customer presentation

Environmental Legislation and the Future of Refrigerants

Omair FarooqPresented to : Ministry of Health , Kingdom of Saudi ArabiaApril 15, 2014

© Johnson Controls, Inc. 20112

Table of Contents

Review the environmental impact of refrigerants

Discuss types of global refrigerant regulation

Identify the global indicators for the future of refrigerants

Provide examples of likely alternatives for various sectors

Legislation and Future of Refrigerants in Saudi Arabia


Global Warming

Ozone Depletion

Johnson Controls is Committed to Sustainability

Leading the Industry to eliminate and minimize:

ODP

GWP


What is The Montreal Protocol?

International treaty - 1989

Mandatory phase out of the production of ozone depleting substances

One of the most successful international treaties

Universally ratified: 196 Signatories!

Ozone Depletion- The Montreal ProtocolODP


Accepted science

Step-down approach that has allowed for transition

Different time table for developing countries

Flexibility to accelerate when technology is available

Superior reduction in CO2

It’s working!

Why has the Montreal Protocol been successful?

UNEP has strong evidence that the ozone hole is shrinking and estimates that levels are expected to return to their 1980 values by 2050

ODP


If the Montreal Protocol has been such a success do we still need to be concerned with ODP substances? ODP

Our work is not done:

Destroy stock piles of CFCs and HCFCs Eliminate the operation of older, less

efficient chillers Eliminate the risk of potential leaks

Accelerate phase out of HCFCs in developing countries

AHRI estimated there are 30,000 CFC and HCFC chillers remaining in service, just in the United States

CFCs&

HCFCs


Montreal Protocol Limits: Consumption of HCFCs in Developed & Developing Countries ODP

7

Developed Countries

20302010 2015 20202004

Previous Limit

New Limit

Per

cen

t (%

) o

f a

ll a

llo

wed

cap

Possible Service Tail

0.5%

0

25

10

35

65

100

Year


Montreal Protocol Limits: Consumption of HCFCs in Developed & Developing Countries ODP

8

20302010 2015 20202004

Previous Limit

New Limit

Possible Service

Tail 0.5%

0

25

10

35

65

100

Developed Countries

20302010 2015 20402025Year

2020

0

32.5

65

100

90P

erce

nt

(%)

of

all

all

ow

ed c

ap

Previous cap was to be set for 2015 consumption level

Possible Service Tail 2.5%

Developing Countries

New cap set for average 2008-2010 consumption levels


What are the possible future steps?

Rapid economic growth in China, the Middle East, and India has resulted in exponential use of refrigerants

Very limited use of CFCs but not HCFC

Proposed idea to utilize Montreal Protocol structure to phase down HFCs

Developing nations are demanding options to meet accelerated 2015 HCFC phase out requirement

What’s Next?ODP

Next


The Green House Gases (GHG)

Total gas emissions – assumes all gases vented to atmosphere (100% leakage)

1% PFCs, SF6, HFC-23

2% HFCs

5% Nitrous Oxide

84% CO2

8% Methane

Kyoto Protocol

International Climate Change Treaty

Signed in 1997 by 187 countries

United States of American is not currently a signatory

Significant reduction commitments without a defined verification mechanism

Funding for developing nations to conform

Technology transfer requirements

Carbon Dioxide from automotive and power plant emissions is the leading greenhouse gas

HFCs are only 2% of total GHG production but seen as the most easily addressed

GWP


GWP

Defining Direct and Indirect Effects

11

Direct


GWP

Defining Direct and Indirect Effects

Direct

12

Indirect


IndirectDirect

Lifetime CO2 Equivalence

GWP

Focusing Only on GWP Can Result in the Wrong Choices for the Environment


Indirect Effect

Direct Effect

Lifetime CO2 Equivalence

2%

98%

GWP

Focusing Only on GWP Can Result in the Wrong Choices for the Environment


Table of Contents







Current Legislative and Regulative Approaches to Limiting Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Comprehensive Approach

Direct Indirect

Use Restrictions

Containment Regulations

Efficiency Standards

Market Mechanisms


The Comprehensive Approach: Total Environmental Warming Impact

Safety Considerations

CostConsiderations

Direct Indirect

Total Equivalent Warming Impact

(TEWI)

Indirect Effects

Direct Effects


The Critical Role of Technology in Minimizing the Environmental Impact

ABCDEFGHIJK

Direct Indirect

Over the last 25 years:

- Average energy efficiency has improved over 35%

- Chiller leak rate has decreased well below 2%


Minimizing the total Climatic Impact requires a Comprehensive Approach to Refrigerant Choice

How do we minimize total carbon emissions?

Containment: Refrigerant Leak Detection, Reclaim

rates, destruction or reuse

Maintenance Practices over

Equipment Life

Optimum Operation at Actual Load Conditions

Direct GWP Effects

Indirect GWP Effects

Cycle Efficiency and Technology Choice


Table of Contents







Navigating the future of refrigerants can seem daunting. Several indicators can help show us the way:

HVAC&R refrigerants are useful gases not a waste by-product

Lifetime energy efficiency has a substantial impact

Different types of equipment have different refrigerant requirements

Safety codes pace industry and government decisions

Equipment innovation & refrigerant adaptation is continuous


Global Indicators of Refrigerant Direction

HVAC&R Refrigerants are considered useful gases

Contained in closed-loop systems

Essential for energy efficiency

A cap and trade scenario with all GHGs would create un-intended price and availability problems

Only a Phase-down has been proposed because alternatives do not exist for all applications

In domestic and International legislation HFCs are being considered separately from other green house gases and only the context of a phase-down approach.

phase

down


Separating HFCs from the larger basket of gases and a phase-down approach

What’s Johnson Controls Doing:

We are actively engaged in shaping international and domestic regulation.Phase

Down

phase

down



Lifetime energy efficiency can have a greater impact than GWP

Refrigerant Evaluation must employ at comprehensive TEWI approach

Over 90% of the CO2 emissions are from the power generated to run

the equipment

efficiency

Low GWP refrigerant alternatives must result in HVAC&R equipment that has energy efficiency levels equal to or better than our current equipment Direct Emissions

Power Generation

phase

down


A Low GWP Solution Must Maintain High Energy Efficiency

Over 90% of the CO2 emissions are from the power generated to run

the equipment

efficiency

What’s Johnson Controls doing:

Considering our customer’s needs, we advocate for regulation that employees a comprehensive approach.

We work with refrigerant manufactures to develop next generation, energy efficient alternatives.

Efficiency

phase

down



Different types of equipment have different refrigerant requirements based on: Maintenance practices

Equipment life

Recovery / End of Life

95% of global HFC use is currently between 700 and 4000 GWP

TEAP proposed to classify GWPs by considering “Use Patterns”

GWP Classification

GWP >30 Ultra-low-GWP

GWP > 100 Very low-GWP

GWP > 300 Low-GWP

GWP > 1000 Moderate-GWP

GWP > 3000 High-GWP

GWP > 10,000 Very High GWP

GWP > 10,000 Ultra-High GWP

Application

Charge size

Leak rate

Low and High GWP are relative terms, applications need to be treated differently

26

efficiency

GWP limits

phase

down


What is Considered Low GWP will Depend on the Application


We are educating regulators that the acceptable level of GWP for a given

application is dependant on many factors.

efficiency

GWP limits

GWP limits vary

phase

down



Safety codes pace industry and government decisions

Safety codes will be developed based on application type

Time will be required to update the safety codes

There will be additional costs to apply the safety codes

For example: Recent EPA ruling allows propane and isobutane in residential refrigerators and freezers

Maximum charge amount

Specific applications

Prescribed safety code compliance

Adapting to some solutions will take time, money, and cooperation between the industry and government

efficiency

safety

GWP limits

phase

down


Safety Codes will Pace Adaption of New Refrigerant Solutions


We are taking a leading role with government regulators and industry organization to set effective safety standards that look out for the well being of our customers in a practical manner.

efficiency

GWP limits

Safety

safety

phase

down



Equipment innovation and refrigerant adaptation is continuous

Direct refrigerant replacement will only be a temporary solution

Market needs will change, equipment designs will change, and refrigerants will change

For example: “near zero” building designs require more efficient heat-recovery and heat pump designs

The efficiency equation also includes technologies like variable speed drives, permanent magnet motors, controls, etc. - not just refrigerant

There is no single long-term solution for every application. HVAC&R equipment will continue to evolve to meet more stringent energy efficiency demands.

efficiency

evolve

GWP limits

safety

phase

down


Refrigerant Solutions will Continue to Evolve

What’s Johnson Controls doing:At Johnson Controls we are uniquely

positioned to provide HVAC&R solutions for the next generation of

high performance buildings

efficiency

evolve

GWP limits

safety

Evolve

phase

down


Solutions that Meet our Core Values: The Challenge

GWP limits vary

Safety

Evolve

Efficiency

Phase Down

32


Table of Contents







Generation of Refrigerants

1850-1930’s

NH3, CO2, Hydrocarbons,

Ammonia

1930-1990’s

CFC’s, HCFC’s

1990-2010’s

HFC’s

2010’s – beyond

Natural Refrigerants

2010’s – beyond

Low GWP HFCs- Produced cooling

- but had toxicity, flammability

- and poor efficiency

- Highly efficient

- Safe

- Non-flammable

- but damaging to the ozone layer

- and very high GWP

- Highly efficient

- Safe

- Non-flammable,

- Zero ozone depletion

- but higher GWP

Must be:

- Safe

- Zero ODP

- High Efficiency

- Low GWP


(NH3, CO2, Hydrocarbons, etc.)

Consistent properties and characteristics:

• Flammability

• Toxicity

• High Working Pressure

• Low Efficiency

Engineer solutions have improved

Primarily Applications: Refrigeration and mobile AC

HFO-1234yf:

•Leading candidate to replace R-134a in mobile applications

•Low GWP (4), no Toxicity, slightly flammable

•Possible applications: stationary HVAC equipment, will require significant engineering and safety code changes

HFO-1234ze:

•Ideal application: Foam Blowing, not HVAC

HFO/HFC/? Blends:

•Better Performance at the cost of higher GWP

Significant technical and legislative challenges

Natural Refrigerants

Next Generation Zero ODP/Low GWP Refrigerants

Low GWP Man-Made Refrigerants

35


What will the future look like?


Practical use is dependant on:

Charge Amount

Relative Level of Flammability

Location of Equipment

Cost of required safety measures

HFO 1234yf

Propane/Isobutane

R-32?

When do flammable refrigerants make sense?

37


Natural Refrigerants remain excellent solutions in some very specific applications:

Ammonia for refrigeration

C02 cascaded systems for supermarket refrigerators/freezers

Energy efficiency of resulting systems must remain at HFC levels or better.

System cost and application cost can be a barrier to adoption.

Li-Br AbsorptionCO2

When do natural refrigerants make sense?

Ammonia

38


Because of the requirements of safety, efficiency and cost, chemical refrigerants must remain an option:

HFOs

HFCs

Blends of HFOs & HFCs

Equipment Size and application will dictate types used:

Most economical solution when higher GWPs can be tolerated

When do HFOs and HFCs refrigerants make sense?

39


What to do today?

R-134a

R-400 Series

R-123

• Efficient, safe, inexpensive• Will continue to be an option• Easily Available

• Only non-flammable alternatives to R-22 currently on the market

• Will be available in service quantities for equipment sold today

• Will be phased-out• Decision to continue to

manufacture is dependant on demand from other sectors .


Johnson Controls is experienced in finding you solutions in an uncertain world

1989- First to offer HFC and HCFC options

Continue to invest in technology because efficiency is not dependant on refrigerant choice alone

2004-Discontinued R-123 Chiller because of concerns about its availability over the expected life of the chiller

Heavily engaged in the development of future of refrigerants and an advocate for responsible regulation

Johnson Controls will continue to provide the broadest product offerings including natural refrigerants, hydrocarbons, and HFC solutions that meet the needs of our customers

41

Past

Present

Future


Table of Contents







Saudi Arabia : The power horse of Middle East

Largest Economy in the Middle East and 19th Largest in the World

Among the top 20 Biggest Consumers of Electricity in the World.

8% Annual Growth in Electricity Demand each year in the last decade

70 percent of electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia goes into air conditioning

Around 1165 metric tons of HCFCs imported in 2011 for refrigeration.



Ban on importing of refrigeration equipment / appliances operating on R-22 and R123 effective 31 December 2014 by Saudi Meteorology Department.

Around 35% reduction in HCFC Consumption required to meet the minimum requirements of Montreal Protocol till 2020.

Manufacturers and Importers advised to move to R-134a, R-410a and R-404

Local Manufacturers to follow International trends in adoption of refrigerants

Johnson Controls will continue to provide product offerings including natural refrigerants, hydrocarbons, and HFC solutions in accordance with local legislation.


Questions?

Refrigerant environment and legislative update the future of refrigerants customer presentation

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