Referendum Opinion Poll

2011 WELSH REFERENDUM OPINION POLL

MARCH 2011

Presented by: John Poole, Research Director, rmg:Clarity, Trefor House, Ocean Park, Cardiff, CF24 5RE

Tel: 02920 435800

E-mail: [email protected]

Web: www.rmg-uk.co.uk

mailto:[email protected]

REFERENDUM POLL

RMG Clarity conducted an opinion poll on behalf of Media Wales / The Western Mail regarding the referendum on granting more powers to the Welsh

Assembly on 3rd March 2011. The survey consisted of 1000 structured telephone interviews, conducted with Welsh voters, between 25th and 28th

February 2011.

Interviews were conducted at RMG Clarity’s in-house CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing) Unit. Respondents were contacted during

the day, in the evening and at the weekend.

The universe represented is the Welsh electorate (pop 2,280,240). Prior to interviewing the sample frame was designed to be proportional according

to parliamentary constituency population. The number of interviews achieved in each constituency are shown in the tables, below.

Only those who said that they intended to vote in the upcoming referendum were asked which way they would vote. Those who did not intend to vote

were excluded from the survey.

This opinion poll sought to gather Welsh voters’ opinions on the forthcoming referendum and wider political concerns. To this end, the survey asked:

Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National Assembly?

Q2. Do you intend to vote Yes or No?

Q3. Would you like to see the Assembly gain responsibility for police and the criminal justice system?

Q4. Would you like the Assembly to have the power to raise and lower taxes?

Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales, should the

number of Welsh MPs be cut?

For further information on this survey, please contact RMG Clarity Research Director, John Poole (details on frontpage).

TABULATIONS BY CONSTITUENCY


Constituency

Base: All

respondents Newport East Cardiff West Delyn

Cardiff South

and Penarth Cynon Valley Wrexham

Base: All respondents 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23

100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Yes 1000 24 28 21 32 22 23

100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%


Constituency

Alyn and

Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy Blaenau Gwent


2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%

Yes 27 27 18 24 25 20 23

2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%


Constituency

Ogmore

Swansea

East

Carmarthen

West and South

Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor

Meirionnydd

Brecon and

Radnorshire Llanelli Cardiff Central


2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%

Yes 25 26 25 21 25 25 27

2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%


Constituency

Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda

Merthyr Tydfil

and Rhymney Newport West Cardiff North Gower


2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%

Yes 26 22 23 23 27 29 27

2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%


Constituency

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East

and Dinefwr Ceredigion

Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend

Base: All respondents 22 26 23 26 31 26

2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Yes 22 26 23 26 31 26


Constituency

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East


Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend


2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Yes 22 26 23 26 31 26

2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Q1. Do you intend to vote in the upcoming referendum for further lawmaking powers for the National

Assembly?

Constituency

Preseli

Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon Islwyn Torfaen


2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

Yes 25 30 27 25 23 24 27

2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%


Constituency

Base: All


Cardiff South



100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Yes 494 10 14 12 14 13 12

49.4% 1.0% 1.4% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2%

No 223 8 8 4 10 2 5

22.3% .8% .8% .4% 1.0% .2% .5%

Don't know - not yet decided 283 6 6 5 8 7 6

28.3% .6% .6% .5% .8% .7% .6%


Constituency

Alyn and

Deeside Swansea West Arfon Clwyd South Vale of Clwyd Aberconwy


2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0%

Yes 12 14 14 14 13 11

1.2% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.3% 1.1%

No 9 9 2 6 6 4

.9% .9% .2% .6% .6% .4%

Don't know - not yet decided 6 4 2 4 6 5

.6% .4% .2% .4% .6% .5%


Constituency

Blaenau Gwent Ogmore

Swansea

East

Carmarthen

West and South

Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor

Meirionnydd

Brecon and

Radnorshire


2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5%

Yes 11 16 13 11 14 7

1.1% 1.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.4% .7%

No 4 1 6 3 1 7

.4% .1% .6% .3% .1% .7%


.8% .8% .7% 1.1% .6% 1.1%


Constituency

Llanelli Cardiff Central Pontypridd Ynys Môn Rhondda

Merthyr Tydfil

and Rhymney Newport West


2.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7%

Yes 15 12 11 10 9 10 17

1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% .9% 1.0% 1.7%

No 3 7 10 5 3 3 4

.3% .7% 1.0% .5% .3% .3% .4%


.7% .8% .5% .7% 1.1% 1.0% .6%


Constituency

Cardiff North Gower

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East



2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6%

Yes 16 15 7 11 14 10

1.6% 1.5% .7% 1.1% 1.4% 1.0%

No 5 5 8 4 6 9

.5% .5% .8% .4% .6% .9%


.8% .7% .7% 1.1% .3% .7%


Constituency

Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend

Preseli

Pembrokeshire Monmouth Caerphilly Neath Aberavon


3.1% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3%

Yes 15 14 16 11 10 11 15

1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 1.5%

No 7 7 3 7 10 4 4

.7% .7% .3% .7% 1.0% .4% .4%


.9% .5% .6% 1.2% .7% 1.0% .4%


Constituency

Islwyn Torfaen

Base: All respondents 24 27

2.4% 2.7%

Yes 10 10

1.0% 1.0%

No 7 7

.7% .7%

Don't know - not yet decided 7 10

.7% 1.0%


Constituency

Base: All


Cardiff South



100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Yes 567 12 16 13 16 16 16

56.7% 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

No 260 9 9 5 11 3 5

26.0% .9% .9% .5% 1.1% .3% .5%

Don't know/ unsure 173 3 3 3 5 3 2

17.3% .3% .3% .3% .5% .3% .2%


Constituency

Alyn and



2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%

Yes 11 16 12 16 13 12 10

1.1% 1.6% 1.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.2% 1.0%

No 11 10 4 5 5 4 9

1.1% 1.0% .4% .5% .5% .4% .9%


.5% .1% .2% .3% .7% .4% .4%


Constituency

Ogmore

Swansea

East

Carmarthen

West and South

Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor

Meirionnydd

Brecon and



2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%

Yes 18 13 13 16 14 15 17

1.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7%

No 2 4 4 3 9 4 5

.2% .4% .4% .3% .9% .4% .5%


.5% .9% .8% .2% .2% .6% .5%


Constituency


Merthyr Tydfil



2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%

Yes 11 11 15 16 14 13 17

1.1% 1.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.7%

No 10 7 5 4 4 9 8

1.0% .7% .5% .4% .4% .9% .8%


.5% .4% .3% .3% .9% .7% .2%


Constituency

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East


Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend


2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Yes 11 16 16 12 14 17

1.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.7%

No 6 5 6 10 11 7

.6% .5% .6% 1.0% 1.1% .7%

Don't know/ unsure 5 5 1 4 6 2

.5% .5% .1% .4% .6% .2%


Constituency

Preseli



2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

Yes 17 10 14 15 18 13 12

1.7% 1.0% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 1.2%

No 4 6 10 5 4 9 9

.4% .6% 1.0% .5% .4% .9% .9%


.4% 1.4% .3% .5% .1% .2% .6%


Constituency

Base: All


Cardiff South



100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Yes 541 9 15 14 16 16 13

54.1% .9% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3%

No 340 13 9 7 14 3 9

34.0% 1.3% .9% .7% 1.4% .3% .9%


11.9% .2% .4% .0% .2% .3% .1%


Constituency

Alyn and



2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%

Yes 8 13 13 17 11 13 14

.8% 1.3% 1.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4%

No 18 11 4 6 11 5 8

1.8% 1.1% .4% .6% 1.1% .5% .8%


.1% .3% .1% .1% .3% .2% .1%


Constituency

Ogmore

Swansea

East

Carmarthen

West and South

Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor

Meirionnydd

Brecon and



2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%

Yes 16 15 12 13 11 16 15

1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.1% 1.6% 1.5%

No 5 8 8 4 13 5 9

.5% .8% .8% .4% 1.3% .5% .9%


.4% .3% .5% .4% .1% .4% .3%


Constituency


Merthyr Tydfil



2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%

Yes 12 9 15 15 15 15 17

1.2% .9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7%

No 10 10 5 5 7 9 8

1.0% 1.0% .5% .5% .7% .9% .8%


.4% .3% .3% .3% .5% .5% .2%


Constituency

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East


Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend


2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Yes 10 11 15 14 16 10

1.0% 1.1% 1.5% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0%

No 9 7 7 9 11 13

.9% .7% .7% .9% 1.1% 1.3%


.3% .8% .1% .3% .4% .3%


Constituency

Preseli



2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

Yes 18 8 14 16 13 14 14

1.8% .8% 1.4% 1.6% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4%

No 3 11 12 6 7 9 12

.3% 1.1% 1.2% .6% .7% .9% 1.2%


.4% 1.1% .1% .3% .3% .1% .1%

Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in Wales,

should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?

Constituency

Base: All


Cardiff South



100.0% 2.4% 2.8% 2.1% 3.2% 2.2% 2.3%

Yes 407 8 10 10 12 8 10

40.7% .8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% .8% 1.0%

No 429 11 14 11 11 10 11

42.9% 1.1% 1.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1%


16.4% .5% .4% .0% .9% .4% .2%



Constituency

Alyn and



2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%

Yes 9 8 4 4 9 11 7

.9% .8% .4% .4% .9% 1.1% .7%

No 14 16 12 8 13 7 13

1.4% 1.6% 1.2% .8% 1.3% .7% 1.3%




Constituency

Alyn and



2.7% 2.7% 1.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3%

Yes 9 8 4 4 9 11 7

.9% .8% .4% .4% .9% 1.1% .7%

No 14 16 12 8 13 7 13

1.4% 1.6% 1.2% .8% 1.3% .7% 1.3%


.4% .3% .2% 1.2% .3% .2% .3%



Constituency

Ogmore

Swansea

East

Carmarthen

West and South

Pembrokeshire

Dwyfor

Meirionnydd

Brecon and



2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7%

Yes 10 9 9 12 10 6 13

1.0% .9% .9% 1.2% 1.0% .6% 1.3%

No 13 12 10 8 8 14 12

1.3% 1.2% 1.0% .8% .8% 1.4% 1.2%


.2% .5% .6% .1% .7% .5% .2%

Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development in

Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?

Constituency


Merthyr Tydfil



2.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7%

Yes 14 13 7 8 12 13 16

1.4% 1.3% .7% .8% 1.2% 1.3% 1.6%

No 6 5 9 12 10 13 9

.6% .5% .9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% .9%


.6% .4% .7% .3% .5% .3% .2%

Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic development

in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?

Constituency

Montgomeryshir

e Clwyd West

Carmarthen East


Vale of

Glamorgan Bridgend


2.2% 2.6% 2.3% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6%

Yes 10 12 9 12 14 15

1.0% 1.2% .9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.5%

No 10 9 13 14 8 10

1.0% .9% 1.3% 1.4% .8% 1.0%


.2% .5% .1% .0% .9% .1%

Q5. If the Assembly gains further law-making powers over areas such as health, education and economic

development in Wales, should the number of Welsh MPs be cut?

Constituency

Preseli



2.5% 3.0% 2.7% 2.5% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7%

Yes 10 12 11 8 9 9 14

1.0% 1.2% 1.1% .8% .9% .9% 1.4%

No 12 12 11 10 10 10 8

1.2% 1.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% .8%


.3% .6% .5% .7% .4% .5% .5%

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Referendum Opinion Poll

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