Personal Energy Consumption By Jeremy Larsen. Household Energy Consumption The household sector.
REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK POWER IN …...Reducing energy consumption and peak power in...
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REDUCING ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND PEAK POWER IN BELGIUM
[email protected] | www.3E.euWith the support of:
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PRESENTATION CONTENT
• Objective
• Background
• Energy efficiency: examples in 3 sectors
• Residential: electric heating
• Tertiary: lighting
• Industry: electric pumps
• Summary
• Policy recommendations
• Conclusion
Outline
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 2
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OBJECTIVE
• Nuclear phase-out is planned to start in 2015• Study wants to highlight the potential of energy efficiency to help
achieving this decision while maintaining security of supply.
� High-level analysis for three concrete examples provide proof and concrete basis for action• Quantitative analysis of energy reduction potential (over the year)• Quantitative analysis of power reduction potential (during peak
moments)
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 3
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BACKGROUND
• Basic rule: generation must equal demand at all times• Different types of generation:
• Base load plants (e.g. nuclear, cheap coal…)• Flexible semi-baseload plants (e.g. gas)• Peak plants (e.g. diesel generators)• Must-run plants (e.g. wind)
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Loa
d a
nd
Ge
ne
rati
on
1 week (winter)
Indication of power generation with
different sources in Belgium
Must run RE Nuclear Coal Gas Peak System load9%
29%
54%
Electricity production in Belgium
per energy source [2009]
Coal
Petrol
Gas
Biomass
Waste
Nuclear
Water
Solar
Wind
Other Sources
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BACKGROUND
Main problems in current and future power system:
Consequences of nuclear phase-out:
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 5
Provide backup power when there is not enough RE
Reduce base-load when there
is much RE
Deal with fast variations with
inflexible demand and generation
Demand flexibility and new (peak) plants
needed
Base load is more flexible
when there is less nuclear
Demand flexibility and new flexible plants
needed
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BACKGROUND
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0
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0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621 2 7 121722 3 8 131823 4 9 1419 0 5 101520 1 6 111621
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Loa
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W]
Daily average, minimum and maximum profile per month
Average, Maximum and Minimum load per hour for each month (2011)
• Summer peak: during morning• Winter peak: during evening and much more important
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BACKGROUND
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• Peak load in 2011 was on January 11 (13.2 GW on Elia grid)
• Evening peak (~18h) mainly comes from residential customers, but can be reduced in any sector
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Breakdown of load profile 11/01/2011
(SLP RES, SLP non-RES and rest)
Total Residential SLP Total Non-Residential SLP Rest
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ENERGY EFFICIENCY: EXAMPLES IN 3 SECTORSElectric consumption share (Energy balances 2009)
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47%
27%
24%
2% 1%
Industry
Tertiary
Residential
Transport
Agriculture
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TW
h
Annual electricity consumption per region
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Transport
Residential
Tertiary
Industry
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Industry Tertiary Residential Transport Agriculture
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Annual electricity consumption per sector
Brussels Wallonia Flanders
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR:
ELECTRIC HEATING
9Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Looking at:• Accumulation heating• Direct complementary heating
Enquete performed by IPSOS:• 1018 households• Spread over Flanders (58%), Brussels (10%), Wallonia (32%)• Well distributed over age, gender, income level…
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 10
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
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53% 47%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Do you possess electric heating appliances (not for water, only
for room heating)?
Yes
No
94%
2%
3%
63%
1%
25%
2%
6%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Accumulation heating appliance (stores heat during night
at night tariff)
Direct heating appliance (heats as soon as you connect it)
What type of electric heating appliances do you have and how many of each?
0 1 2 3 4 More than 4
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 12
80%
49%
46%
82%
49%
10%
30%
32%
8%
40%
6%
13%
17%
6%
10%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Night (22.00-8.00h)
Evening (20.00-22.00h)
Start of the evening (18.00-20.00h)
Afternoon (13.00-18.00h)
Morning (8.00-13.00h)
Specifically for the direct heating appliances as complementary heating: How many hours
per day do you use them during winter days when it's freezing (e.g. if during the morning
you use 2 devices during 2 hours, then the answer is 4)
No use
Less than 1h
1 - 2h
2 - 4h
4 - 6h
More than 6h
57% 24% 18%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Would you be willing to stop using your device (or use it less) between 18h and 20h?
Yes
No
I don't know
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
• 53% of all belgians has one or more electric heating devices at home.
• Only 6% of the these possesses accumulation heating. 98% says to possess one or more direct electric heating devices.
• Direct heating devices are mostly used in the beginning of the evening (between 18h and 20h), in the morning and between 20h and 22h.
• 57% of the respondents is willing to reduce consumption or unplug the direct electric complementary heating during the period 18-20h. One out of 4 respondents is not willing to do this, while 18% does not know.
Results of enquete
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Results direct heating:• Number of Belgian households (2008): 4 575 950• Households with direct electric heating: 52 % (=53%*98%)• Average number of devices: 1.5• Average electric power: 1.5 kW
� Number of devices in Belgium: 3 573 433� Total installed power electric compl. heating: 5.36 GW
Results accumulation heating:• Number of Belgian households (2008): 4 575 950• Households with accumulation heating: 3 % (=53%*6%)• Average consumption (VREG): 12 500 kWh• Average installed power (100 m², 100 W/m²): 10 kW
� Number of accumulation heating systems: 137 279� Total installed power accumulation heating: 1.37 GW
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Assumption**:
Direct complementary heating
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number of days (during day) Use of devices
<0°C 30 75%<5°C 132 30%<10°C 212 15%<15°C 319 0%
• Total energy consumption direct electric heating: 0.82 TWh� 1.0% of Belgian electricity consumption� 4.2% of residential electricity consumption� 159 M€ electricity cost annually
(calculated with 15/20 c€/kWh for day/night)
• Total consumption during winter peak: 610 MW
* Results of enquete are discrete (per block of hours). Therefore, the curve has been smoothened to
represent a more realistic profile.
0
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MW
Hour of the day
Consumption profile of direct electric heating during winter peak dayResult Enquete Smoothened*
** This assumption is needed to transform the results of the enquete
(in power consumption) to a total energy consumption over the year.
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
From SLP profiles winter peak day (difference between S21 and S22):
Accumulation heating
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• Total energy consumption accumulation heating: 1.72 TWh� 2.1% of Belgian electricity consumption� 8.7% of residential electricity consumption� 257 M€ electricity costs annually
(calculated with 15 c€/kWh for night)
• Total consumption during winter peak: 0 MW (� works at night)
0
500
1 000
1 500
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Estimation of accumulation heating usage on winter day
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
Assumed conversions possible: 25%� Total savings on peak day:
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• Total energy savings: 0.64 TWh (3.2% of residential consumption)
• Peak reduction: 152 MW (1.15% of winter load peak)
• Annual electricity costs savings: 106 M€
-600
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MW
Total electricity savings (accumulation + direct electrical heating)
Direct heating (25%) Accumulation heating (25%)
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RESIDENTIAL SECTOR: ELECTRIC HEATING
• Situation in France is even worse due to electric heating:• In winter, demand is 65% higher than in summer, while for Belgium this is
‘only’ 30%• Electric heating in France consumes 34% of the winter peak• Demand sensitivity per degree °C:
− France: 2300 MW (=~2.3 % of peak power per °C)− Belgium: 80 MW (=~0.6 % of peak power per °C)
Serious point of attention, and not only in Belgium!
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 18
Source: Greenpeace Source: NegaWatt
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TERTIARY SECTOR:
LIGHTING
19Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 20
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
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Brussels Flanders Wallonie
TW
h
Annual electricity consumption in the tertiary sector (Energy balances
2009 of each Region)
Culture & sports
Other services
Health care
Education
Administration
Banks/assuranc./services
Hotels & restaurants
Trade
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 21
37%
35%
69%
47%
25%
25%
35%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Trade
Banks/assuranc./services
Education
Health care
Culture & sports
Other services
Administration
Breakdown of electricity consumption in tertiary sector (Energy balance Brussels*)
Lighting Airco, ventilation, cold Heating hot water Other
* The Brussels Energy balance (2009) is the only one with details on the split of electricity consumption. It is assumed that the shares in the other regions are similar.
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 22
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
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100%
0-1
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% o
f ca
pa
city
Hour of the day
Consumption profiles lighting (expert estimation 3E)
Trade
Hotels & restaurants
Banks/assuranc./services
Administration
Education
Health care
Other services
Culture & sports
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Working hours lighting [1]:
� Possible saving: • Average possible saving: 40% [2, 3, 4]• Remaining potential: 75% [2]
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 23
Office 2600Education 2000Health care 4000Horeca 2600Trade 2900Industry 2400Sports 3000
[1] Cijfers en tabellen 2007, SenterNovem, April 2007[2] The European Lighting Industry Position on How to Maximise the Potential
Benefits of European Policy on Energy Efficiency in Lighting, CELMA, 2008[3] Groen Licht Vlaanderen 2020[4] 3E Expert estimation
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 24
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MW
TW
hEstimation of total savings on tertiary lighting
(TWh per year & MW installed)
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TERTIARY SECTOR: LIGHTING
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 25
• Total energy savings: 2.41 TWh (11.0% of tertiary consumption)
• Peak reduction: 812 MW (6.2% of winter load peak)
• Annual electricity cost savings: 362 M€
-0.900
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Savings on tertiary lighting on peak winter day (GW)
Culture & sports
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Health care
Education
Administration
Banks/assuranc./services
Hotels & restaurants
Trade
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INDUSTRY SECTOR:
PUMPS AND VENTILATORS
26Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 27
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Flanders Brussels Wallonia
TW
h
Annual electricity consumption in the industry (Energy balances
2009)
Other industries
Textile, leather & clothing
Metal processing industry
Mineral non-metal products
Paper and publishing
Food, drinks and tobacco
Chemics
Non-ferro
Iron & steel
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 28
0
2
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Iron & steel Non-ferro Chemics Food, drinks
and tobacco
Paper and
publishing
Mineral non-
metal
products
Metal
processing
industry
Textile,
leather &
clothing
Other
industries
TW
h
Annual electricity consumption in the industry (Energy balances
2009)
Wallonia
Brussels
Flanders
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMSEstimation of savings potential for pumps & ventilators
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 29
• 68 % of industrial consumption is used by motor systems [1]• 38 % of this is used by pumps and ventilators [1]• 75 % of these applications have a variable load [2]• 50 % is estimated to be undeveloped potential [4]• 29 % improvement in efficiency is possible by using: [3]
• frequency control• more efficient motors• better dimensioning of the systems
� 2.8 % of the industrial electricity consumption can be avoided
[1] Reference Document on Best Available Techniques for Energy Efficiency (BREF), European Commission, February 2009
[2] Improving Pumping System Performance, A Sourcebook for Industry, Second Edition, U.S. Department of Energy’s Industrial Technologies Program and Hydraulic Institute, May 2006
[3] Energy Efficient Motor Driven Systems, European Copper Institute, April 2004[4] Very little information available � Expert estimate based on ‘Energy Efficiency makes a difference,
ABB, November 2008’ (15% realised potential) and on estimated progress since.As a reality check, the results are compared to ‘Energy efficiency in Belgium, McKinsey, 2009’, which calculates a potential of 3.06 TWh in Belgium industry, only via variable speed motors systems.
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 30
0%
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100%
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Consumption profiles pumps & ventilators (expert estimation 3E)
Iron & steel
Non-ferro
Chemics
Paper and publishing
Mineral non-metal products
0%
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100%
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Hour of the day
Food, drinks and tobacco
Textile, leather & clothing
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 31
0
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50
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Iron &
steel
Non-ferro Chemics Food,
drinks and
tobacco
Paper and
publishing
Mineral
non-metal
products
Metal
processing
industry
Textile,
leather &
clothing
Other
industries
MW
TW
hEstimation annual savings on pumps and ventilators
(TWh per year & MW installed)
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INDUSTRY: EFFICIENT MOTOR SYSTEMS
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• Total energy savings: 1.08 TWh (2.8% of industrial consumption)
• Peak reduction: 151 MW (1.1% of winter peak)
• Annual electricity cost savings: 108 M€
-0.20
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0.00
GW
Savings on pumps & ventilators on peak winter day (GW)
Other industries
Textile, leather & clothing
Metal processing industry
Mineral non-metal products
Paper and publishing
Food, drinks and tobacco
Chemics
Non-ferro
Iron & steel
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SUMMARY & CONCLUSIONS
33Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium
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SUMMARY: ENERGY SAVINGS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 34
• Residential electric heating: 0.63 TWh• Tertiary lighting: 2.41 TWh• Industrial motors: 1.08 TWh
4.13 TWh
Total savings: 4.13 TWh
~5.0 % of Belgian electricity consumption
~576 M€ electricity cost savings each year
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0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5 5-6 6-7 7-8 8-9 9-10 10-11 11-12 12-13 13-14 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-2121-22 22-23 23-24
MW
Hour of the day
Possible reduction of winter peak
Green line - savings on electrical heating Red line - savings on tertiary lighting
Blue line - savings on pumps&ventilators Load Elia (11 January 2011, max of each hour in MW)
SUMMARY: REDUCTION OF THE WINTER PEAK
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 35
10 000
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16-17 17-18 18-19 19-20 20-21
MW
Zoom on peak hours
• The three measures can significantly reduce the winter peak load.
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SUMMARY: REDUCTION OF THE WINTER PEAK
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 36
Reduction of winter peak with 1116 MW (8.5%) possible (with 3 measures).
� Energy efficiency offers important opportunities for controlling the peak consumption!
13 208
12 093
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Peak load Reduction by pumps &
ventilators
Reduction by lighting Reduction by electric
heating
Final
MW
Reduction of winter peak load
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SUMMARY: POWER SAVINGS ON WINTER DAY
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 37
-1 400
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MW
Reduction of consumption on peak winter day by the three measures
Savings on pumps & ventilators Savings on tertiary lighting Savings on electric heating
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SUMMARY OF SAVINGSShare of each measure
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 38
13%
52%
35%
Energy savings (4.1 TWh = 5.0% of total BE consumption)
Savings on residential electric heating
Savings on tertiary lighting
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
12%
69%
19%
Peak reduction (1116 MW = 8.5% of peak)
Savings on residential electric heating
Savings on tertiary lighting
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
17%
58%
26%
Electricity cost savings (total 576 M€/year)
Savings on residential electric heating
Savings on tertiary lighting
Savings on industrial pumps and ventilators
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SUMMARY OF SAVINGSCosts and profits
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 39
Assumptions average payback:• Replacing electric heating: 5y• Reducing tertiary lighting consumption: 4y• Optimisation of pumps & ventilators: 2.5y
Financial assumptions:• 4% discount factor for residential sector• 10% discount factor for tertiary and industry• 2% annual rise of electricity price• 15 years depreciation period
� Cash flow calculation:
� 2.07 bn EUR investment costs
� 3.24 bn EUR total profits
� Each invested EUR brings 1.56 EUR benefits !
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-1 000 000 000
0
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Cu
mu
lati
ve
Ca
sh
flo
w [
€]
Cumulative Cash flow estimation
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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (1)
Concrete actions:
• Develop large-scale program to replace electric heating with attention for the social aspect
• Stimulate audits and relighting in the tertiary sector
• Further an ambitious energy savings policy for the industry (focusing on innovation while keeping the long term transition towards a carbon-free economy in mind)
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 40
Energy efficiency urgently needs more policy attention!
• Important economic savings possible with low payback times
• Supports the Belgian power system and reduces peak load
• Reduces dependency on fuel imports and increases competitiveness of our industry
• Helps reaching the 2020 targets of EE, RE and CO2
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POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS (2)
• The three measures studied are only examples. Energy efficiency has a lot more potential, e.g.:• Energy performant appliances (+ phase-out of old appliances)• Efficient lighting in residential and industry sectors• Reduce standby consumption• Efficient motors in tertiary and residential applications (e.g. circulation pumps heating)• Etc.
• Find solutions for financing• Large potential is not developed, amongst others because of financing problems (e.g.
economic crisis, owner vs tenant, low payback times demanded in industry etc.)• Well developed ESCO systems, financing schemes, etc. can help
• Support and incentivise flexibility:• Flexibility is key in a future power system with high penetration of renewables• Electricity contracts can be based more on hourly pricing – gives incentive to the industry• Provide information for voluntary reductions or shifts (e.g. during peak hours, boil water on
cooking fire instead of with water boiler, use gas oven instead of microwave, etc.)• Incentivise economically viable storage options (e.g. heat storage with CHP or heat pump…)
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 41
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EXAMPLE: VOLUNTARY REDUCTION AT PEAK MOMENTS?
• Earth Hour: world-wide action by WWF to switch off lighting at 8:30 PM (every March)
• Impact in Belgium (press releases Elia):• 2010:
• From 18h30 onwards, the consumption was ~200 MW less than the forecast for a normal Saturday, at some moments the difference was up to 300 MW �participants have ancipated.
• At 20h30, the official start, the consumption was 175 MW lower than the forecast.
• 2011:• The whole day the consumption was 350 to 400 MW lower than forecasted for a
normal Saturday, because of the sunny weather.• From 19h onwards, the effect was enforced by an extra 200-250 MW � participants
have anticipated.• At 20h30, the official start, the consumption was ~550 MW lower than the forecast
(& impact of PV is much less at this hour)
Not an illusion: example of Earth Hour
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 42
� Voluntary energy reductions can help to reduce the peak consumption and should not be underestimated
� IPSOS enquete proved that 57% of people with electric heating is willing to shift or reduce the consumption
©3E |
CONCLUSIONS
Reducing energy consumption and peak power in Belgium 43
Savings of three measures have been investigated:• Residential sector: Replacing electric heating (direct & accumulation)• Tertiary sector: More efficient lighting• Industry sector: More efficient motors systems in pumps & ventilators
� Total estimated savings:• Energy: ~4.13 TWh (5.0% of BE consumption)• Peak reduction: ~1116 MW (8.5% of winter load peak)• Annual costs: ~576 M€
� Investment of 2.06 bn EUR with payback of ~4 yearsTotal profit over 15 years = 3.24 bn EUR
� Taking energy efficiency measures can significantly support the Belgian energy system in a cost-effective way!