Redefining Portfolio Management in the Age of Business Agility
Redefining Projects For an Age of Complexity
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Transcript of Redefining Projects For an Age of Complexity
Anchoring BiasAnchoring is a cognitive bias that describes the common human tendency to rely too heavily on the first piece of information offered (the "anchor") when making decisions.
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Cognitive Biases
Bandwagon EffectThe bandwagon effect is a psychological phenomenon whereby people do something primarily because other people are doing it, regardless of their own beliefs, which they may ignore or override.
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Cognitive Biases
Projection biasThe tendency to unconsciously assume that others (or one's future selves) share one's current emotional states, thoughts and values.
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Cognitive Biases
Recency biasRecency bias is the name for the heavy influence that recent experience can have on our decision making.
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Cognitive Biases
https://stepsandleaps.files.wordpress.com/2009/07/complexity-map-overview.jpg
Modern history of complexity
What is Complexity?Complexity is more a way of thinking about the world than a new way of working with mathematical models.
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Understanding Complexity
What is Complex System?• It involves large numbers of
interacting elements• The interactions are
nonlinear, and minor changes can produce disproportionately major consequences.
• The system is dynamic, the whole is greater than the sum of its parts, and solutions can’t be imposed;
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Understanding Complexity
What is Cynefin?Cynefin, pronounced ku-nev-in, is a Welsh word that signifies the multiple factors in our environment and our experience that influence us in ways we can never understand.
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Understanding Complexity - CYNEFIN
• Characteristics: • Repeating patterns• Clear cause and effect• Fact-based management
• The Leader’s Job:• Sense, Categorize, Respond• Communicate in clear and direct ways• Interactive communication may not be necessary
• Danger!• Complacency and comfort• Desire to make complex problems simple• Overreliance on best practice
CYNEFIN – SIMPLE DOMAIN
• Characteristics: • Expert diagnosis required• Cause and effect not immediately apparent to everyone• Fact based but—more than one right answer
• The Leader’s Job:• Sense, Analyze, Respond• Create panels of experts• Listen to conflicting advice
• Danger!• Experts can become overconfident and blind to other solutions• Viewpoints of non-experts are excluded• Analysis Paralysis
CYNEFIN – complicated DOMAIN
• Characteristics: • Flux and unpredictability• Need for creative and innovative approaches• Unknown Unknowns
• The Leader’s Job:• Probe, Sense, Respond• Increased levels of interaction and communication• Use methods that help generate ideas
• Danger!• Temptation to fall back into habitual command-and-control
mode• Temptation to look for facts rather than allowing patterns to
emerge• Desire to cut short time involved
CYNEFIN – complex DOMAIN
• Characteristics: • High turbulence• Many decisions and no time• High tension
• The Leader’s Job:• Act, Sense, Respond• Look for what works instead of seeking right answers• Provide clear, direct communication
• Danger!• Applying a command-and-control approach longer than
needed• Missed opportunity for innovation• Chaos unabated
CYNEFIN – chaotic DOMAIN
Find customers and run cheap experiments to check if your assumptions are correct
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Scientific Method
https://www.infoq.com/minibooks/cynefin-mini-bookhttp://www.slideshare.net/Kim_B/cynefin-and-agile-last-conf-july-2012https://hbr.org/2007/11/a-leaders-framework-for-decision-makinghttp://classes.bus.oregonstate.edu/ba352/elton/Articles/Decision%20Making.pptxhttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7oz366X0-8http://cognitive-edge.com/http://www.davefarley.net/https://www.amazon.com/Black-Swan-Improbable-Robustness-Fragility/dp/081297381X/https://www.amazon.com/Lean-Enterprise-Performance-Organizations-Innovate/dp/1449368425/https://www.amazon.com/Management-3-0-Developers-Developing-Addison-Wesley-ebook/dp/B004ISL6JY/
Resources
high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
belief in stationary (sustained, stable outcomes) in a complex situation leads to blindness, which can yield catastrophic results
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/originals/61/cf/81/61cf81c3b2b4b1bf636e11bc2cc5f479.gif
Thank you