RECLAMATION...Draft Reservoir to near Elevation 3617-3621 by March 31 – Preference to River Flow...
Transcript of RECLAMATION...Draft Reservoir to near Elevation 3617-3621 by March 31 – Preference to River Flow...
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Yellowtail Dam & Bighorn Lake Operating Criteria Review
Billings, MTSeptember 29, 2009
RECLAMATIONManaging Water in the West
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WIND RIVER RANGE
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OPERATING CRITERIA REVIEW GOALS
• Improve Overall Project Benefits
– Higher Lake Levels for Recreation and Fishery
– More Consistently Meet Desired Fishery Flow Targets
– Enhance Power Generation
– Improve Flood Control Operations
– More Transparent Methods for Operating Decisions
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PROPOSED CHANGES
• Modified Reservoir Elevation Targets
• Revised Method for Calculating River Gains
• Improved Method for Forecasting Winter Gains
• Improved &Transparent Procedure for Setting Winter Release
• New Operating Procedure for Spring Runoff Season using Reservoir Operational Rule Curves
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PROPOSED RESERVOIR TARGETS
Date Existing Proposed Difference _______ Targets Targets (feet)
Oct 31 3635 3638-40 +3-5 ft
Nov 30 3630 Eliminated
Mar 31 3605-14 3617-21 +7-13 ft
July 31 3640 3640 Same
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November-March Gains
• Gains Prior to 1991 not used in Analysis
• New Method for Calculating Gains
• Nov-Mar Gain Forecast based on Correlation with Actual April-Oct Gains
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Trend in Nov-Mar Gains 1968-2000Bighorn Lake Nov-Mar Gains
1968-2000
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
Gai
ns a
cre-
feet
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Nov-Mar Release Calculation
• Water Balance Equation Used to Calculate Nov-Mar Release Rate Based On:
– Nov-Mar Release from Buffalo Bill and Boysen Reservoirs– Forecasted Nov-Mar River Gains– Draft Reservoir to near Elevation 3617-3621 by March 31– Preference to River Flow before reducing releases below
2000 cfs– Preference to Lake Level before increasing releases above
2500 cfs– Minimize reductions in River Release.
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March 31 Reservoir Level Targets
River Release March 31 Target Elev.
Greater Than 2500 cfs 3620.6
2000-2500 cfs 3618.0
Less Than 2000 cfs 3616.7
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Operational Rule Curves April-July
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April-July Inflow HydrographsBighorn Lake April-July Inflow
02000400060008000
10000120001400016000
4/1
4/8
4/15
4/22
4/29 5/
6
5/13
5/20
5/27 6/
3
6/10
6/17
6/24 7/
1
7/8
7/15
7/22
7/29
Inflo
w C
FS
LD LQ Medium UQ UD Max
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Bighorn Lake April-July Rule CurvesBighorn Lake Rule Curves
3600.0
3610.0
3620.0
3630.0
3640.0
3/31 4/
74/
144/
214/
28 5/5
5/12
5/19
5/26 6/
26/
96/
166/
236/
30 7/7
7/14
7/21
7/28
Lake
Ele
v. fe
et
Min Fill 28% Medium UQ UD Max
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Bighorn Lake River ReleaseBighorn River Release
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
120003/
31 4/7
4/14
4/21
4/28 5/
5
5/12
5/19
5/26 6/
2
6/9
6/16
6/23
6/30 7/
7
7/14
7/21
7/28
Riv
er F
low
CFS
Min Fill Medium UQ UD Max
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RESULTSBased on 1988-2008 Model Study
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Results Reservoir ElevationBighorn Lake Elev. Modified Criteria vs. Historic
1988-2008 Averages
360036053610361536203625363036353640
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Lake
Lev
el fe
et
Modified Criteria Historic
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Results River FlowsBighorn River below Afterbay Dam Modifed Criteria vs Historic
1988-2008 Averages
15002000250030003500400045005000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Dis
char
ge c
fs
Modified Criteria Historic
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Percent of Time Fishery Flows are MetBighorn River Fishery Flows 1988-2008
% of of Time above Fishery Flow Targets
0
20
40
60
80
100
1300 1500 2000 2500 3500
Perc
ent o
f Tim
e
Historic Modif ied Criteria
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Power Generation
Yellowtail Dam Power Generation Modified Criteria vs. Historic 1988-2008
40.050.060.070.080.090.0
100.0
Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Gen
erat
ion
GW
H
Modified Criteria Historic
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Power Generation GWHs
Period Mod Criteria Historic Difference
Annual 780.1 762.2 +17.9
Dec-Feb 153.8 156.0 - 2.2
July-Aug 165.7 167.5 - 1.8
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1988-2008 Compared to 1967-2008
Period Average Annual Inflow AF
1988-2008 1,992,619
1967-2008 2,343,002
1988-2008 (w/o 01-07) 2,327,807
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Results Reservoir Elevation w/o 01-07
Bighorn Lake Elev. Modified Criteria vs. Historic1988-2008 (w/o 01-07) Averages
360036053610361536203625363036353640
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Lake
Lev
el fe
et
Modif ied Criteria Historic
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Results River Flows w/o 01-07Bighorn River below Afterbay Dam Modifed Criteria vs Historic
1988-2008 Averages (w/o 01-07)
15002000250030003500400045005000
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Disc
harg
e cf
s
Modified Criteria Historic
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Results – Summary 1988-2008 Study Period
• Lake Levels– Jan-April 7-8 feet higher– May-June 3 feet higher– July-Dec 4-5 feet higher
• River Flows– 1,500 cfs + 8% of time, met 100% of time for study period– 2,000 cfs + 5% of time– 2,500 cfs + 5% of time– 3,500 cfs - 3% of time
• Power Generation +2% increase • Flood Control – Slight Improvement
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Comparisons for 2009
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2009 Bighorn Lake Nov-Mar River Release
River End of March Release Lake Elevation
Revised Criteria 2546 cfs 3623 ft
Actual 2450 cfs 3627 ft
Difference +96 cfs - 4 ft
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Bighorn Lake Proposed Criteria vs. Actual 2009
Bighorn Lake Elevation 2009Modified Criteria vs. Acutal
3620
3625
3630
3635
3640
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarEnd of Month
Elev
atio
n fe
et
Modified Criteria Actual
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Bighorn River Proposed Criteria vs Actual 2009
Bighorn River Flow 2009Modified Criteria vs. Actual
22002300
24002500
26002700
2800
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb MarEnd of Month
Disc
harg
e cf
s
Modified Criteria Actual
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Bighorn Lake Elevation April- July 2009
Bighorn Lake Rule Curve vs Actual Operation 2009
3610.03615.03620.03625.03630.03635.03640.03645.03650.0
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Elev
atio
n fe
et
Rule Curve Reoperation Actual Top of Joint Use
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Bighorn River April-July 2009Bighorn Lake Rule Curve Operation vs Actual 2009
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Dis
char
ge C
FS
Rule Curve Reoperation Actual
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Bighorn Lake Forecasted Apr-July InflowBighorn Lake In flow April-Ju ly 2009
02000400060008000
1000012000140001600018000
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Inflo
w c
fs
Forecast
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Bighorn Lake April-July Inflow Forecasted vs Actual
Bighorn Lake Inflow April-July 2009
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Inflo
w c
fs
Actual Forecast
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NRCS Apr-July Forecast
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Rule Curve Inflow vs Actual 2009
Bighorn Lake Inflow April-July 2009
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,000
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Inflo
w c
fs
Actual Forecast
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2009 Rule Curve using Actual Inflow
Bighorn Lake Elevation for Forecast A-J Inflow with Rule Curves
3600
3610
3620
3630
3640
3/314/14
4/285/12
5/26 6/9 6/23 7/7 7/21
Elev
atio
n in
feet
Min Fill Max Forecast
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LOOKING AHEAD TO 2010
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River Release Nov-Mar 2010
• Planned Boysen Release - 900 cfs
• Planned Buffalo Bill Release – 390 cfs
• Forecasted Nov-Mar Gains - 244,000 acre-feet
• End of Oct. Lake Level – 3638-3639 ft
• Calculated River Release Rate - 2700-2800 cfs
• Expected End of March Lake Elev. - 3620.6 ft
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Discussion & Questions
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Bighorn Lake Rule Curve vs Actual Operation 2009
3610.03615.03620.03625.03630.03635.03640.03645.03650.0
4/1 4/84/1
54/224/29 5/65/135/20 5/2
7 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/87/157/22 7/2
9El
evat
ion
feet
Rule Curve Reoperation Actual Top of Joint Use
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Bighorn Lake Rule Curve Operation2009
3610.0
3615.0
3620.0
3625.0
3630.0
3635.0
3640.0
3645.0
3650.0
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Elev
atio
n fe
et
Rule Curve Elevation ft Top of Joint Use
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Bighorn Lake Rule Curve vs Actual Operation 2009
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
4/1 4/8 4/15
4/22
4/29 5/6 5/13
5/20
5/27 6/3 6/10
6/17
6/24 7/1 7/8 7/15
7/22
7/29
Dis
char
ge C
FS
Rule Curve Reoperation Actual