Welcome to Stockholm Resilience Centre– Research for Governance of Social-Ecological Systems

Reclaiming leadership in fisheries

January 18, 2012

Dr Henrik ÖsterblomStockholm Resilience Centre

We used to be on top of the game

Images from Wikipedia

Now, we have lost the initiative

Fish

ing

Pres

sure

Stock size Limit below which stock is too small

Limit above which fishing is to intensiveUSA EU

Data: RAM legacy website, courtesy of Dr Ray Hilborn

Images from NMFS

Sustained overcapacity

Maintained Subsidies

DECISIONSFocusing on short-term

economic and social goals over long-term sustainability

A

We are trapped in social-ecological feedbacks!

Sustained overcapacity

Maintained Subsidies

Decreased quality of stock assessment

Unsustainable quotas

EVIDENCEReduced Scientific

legitimacy

DECISIONSFocusing on short-term

economic and social goals over long-term sustainability

Depleted stocks

A

B

We are trapped in social-ecological feedbacks!

Sustained overcapacity

ReducedCatch rates

Maintained Subsidies

COMPLIANCEIncreased incentives to

cheat and reduced cooperation with science

Decreased quality of stock assessment

Unsustainable quotas

EVIDENCEReduced Scientific

legitimacy

DECISIONSFocusing on short-term

economic and social goals over long-term sustainability

Depleted stocks

ReducedProfitability

A

B

C

Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

Can we learn from the US?

• “Best practice project”: Dec 2008-April 2009• Literature reviews• Interviews and workshops with industry, NGO

and policy makers in US, Canada and Norway• Workshops with European stakeholder• Report and Scientific publication• Mike Sissenwine, David Symes, Katarina Veem,

Tim Daw, Martina Kadin and H.Österblom

Findings

• Evidence• Decision making• Compliance

Findings - evidence• Clear and trusted science• Integrated, ecosystem assessments

– Regional science centres

• Independent, transparent peer-review of science• Technology and incentives to provide data

– VMS, video, reduce uncertainty

• Industry funded data collection – Observers, cost recovery schemes

• Stimulate co-learning processes – Collaborative research

Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

Findings – decision making

• Clear rules and guidelines for decision making• Ecology first!• Regionalization with industry and NGO

participation– Regional fisheries management councils responsible

for developing operational management– Proposed management plans subject to approval by

NMFS (federal agency)

• Transparent decision making process

Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

Findings - compliance

• Discard ban (Norway and Canada)• Clear incentives for industry

– Certification, user rights, reducing overcapacity

• Strong compliance mechanisms and enforcement

• Supply chain tracking– Enabled by elaborate inter-agency (coast guard,

customs, police, fisheries agency, tax authority) cooperation

• Legitimacy of decisions through participation

Österblom et al. 2011 Marine Policy

Will stocks recover with perfect, science, decisions and

compliance?• Cod stocks of Newfoundland showing signs of

recovery• Baltic cod stock showing signs of recovery• ….after > 20 years….• Social and ecological time lags..• Regime shifts• Climate dependent…• Emphasize the need to use to available ability

to influence the dynamics of stocks

Regionalization, how will it improve the knowledge base?

• Facilitate cooperation in existing scientific networks• Further build trust between diverse interests in

RACs• Perform integrated assessments across scientific

disciplines• Perform collaborative research projects with

stakeholders

• Link fisheries science with ecology, natural scientists with social scientists, scientists with stakeholders

Combine fisheries science and ecology for

integrated advice – policy coherence with

MSFD

Cury et al. 2011 Science

Regionalization, decision making and compliance

• Devolve technical aspects to the regions, member states and fishing industry

• Define principles, standards, goals and objectives at the EU-level

• Delegate the translation of principles into management plans to member states collaborating at the regional level

• This can improve compliance and legitimacy!

Suggestions for regaining the initiative

• Ecology first• Clear guidelines for decision making• Clear rules for implementation• A regional approach necessary to take different

social-ecological context in to account• Give industry room to implement• Ensure transparency and coherent enforcement

– but..

• Expect non-linear change and time lags!

Thank you!Henrik.osterblom@stockholmresilience.su.se