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Transcript of Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal for Energy Conservation Keith Tovey ( ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE,...
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal for Energy Conservation
Keith Tovey ( 杜伟贤 ) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnvReader Emeritus: University of East Anglia 1
Pathways to an Energy Secure and Low Carbon Future: Hard Choices Ahead
Broadland Climate Change Community Champion Teams– May 14th 2011
Pathways to an Energy Secure and Low Carbon Future
Energy Security: Difficult Choices
Awareness Raising
Effective Management
Innovative Technical Solutions
• Many options for Long Term ~ 2050• But how do we also ensure Energy Security Issues to 2020/5
2
• Good Record Keeping and Objective Analysis of data > leading to energy reduction through good management
• Effective Integration of Technologies
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100
120
140
2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 2020
Bil
lion
cu
bic
met
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Actual UK production
Actual UK demandProjected productionProjected demand
Import Gap
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
On 7th/8th December 2011: UK Production was only 39%: 12%
from storage and 49% from imports
Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas.
Gas Production and Demand in UK
3
UK becomes net importer of gas
Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway
Oil reaches $140 a barrel
Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
4
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Fuel Approx emission factor Comments
Coal 900 – 1000gDepending on grade and efficiency of power station
Gas 400 – 430gAssuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth as it is one of most efficient in Europe
Nuclear 5 – 10g Depending on reactor type
Renewables ~ 0 For wind, PV, hydro
Overall UK ~530gVaries on hour by hour basis depending on generation mix
• Norfolk and Suffolk is a very low carbon electricity generation zone in UK• But current accounting procedures do not allow regions to promote this.• A firm in Norfolk / Suffolk would have only 16% of carbon emissions
from electricity consumption
Suffolk & Norfolk (2009)
~83gSizewell B, Yarmouth and existing renewables
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s if then
5
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
Energy Review
2002late 2010 (*)
9th May 2011 (**)
Gas CCGT0 - 80% (at
present 45-50%)
Available now (but gas is running
out)~2p +
nuclear fission (long term)
0 - 15% (France 80%) - (currently 18% and falling)
new inherently safe designs - some
development needed
2.5 - 3.5p
nuclear fusion unavailablenot available until 2040 at earliest not until 2050 for
significant impact
"Clean Coal"Coal currently
~40% but scheduled to fall
Available now: Not viable without
Carbon Capture & Sequestration
2.5 - 3.5p
~8.3p +/-3p
8.0p[5 - 11]
~ 9.7p for 1st new nuclear subsequently
7.0p
7.75p [5.5 - 10]
New Coal ~ 10.5p with
CCS ~ 13.5p
[7.5 - 15]p - unlikely
before 2025
* Electricity Markey Reform Consultation – January 2011** Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee
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1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
In
sta
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New Build ?
ProjectedActual
Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2020.
?
6
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Future prices from * DECC Consultation Document on Electricity Market Reform Jan 2011.** Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
**
1.5MW TurbineAt peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year
On Shore Wind
~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
7
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
**
On Shore Wind
~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 10 - 15%
technical development
needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
8
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to
electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 10 - 15%
technical development
needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill,
Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5%
technically mature, but limited potential
2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
9
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to
electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
**
On Shore Wind
~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 10 - 15%
technical development
needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later
12.5p +/- 2.5
9Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5%
technically mature, but limited potential
2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic
<1% even assuming 5
GW of installation
available, much research needed to bring down costs
significantly
16+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Climate Change Report suggests that 1.6 TWh (0.4%) might be achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
10
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to
electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p) *
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
**
On Shore Wind
~10% [~6000 x 3 MW turbines]
available now for commercial exploitation
~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind 10 - 15%
technical development
needed to reduce costs.
~2.5 - 3p~13.5 -14p for early projects ~11.5p later
12.5p +/- 2.5
10Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Hydro (mini - micro) 5%
technically mature, but limited potential
2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic
<1% even assuming 5
GW of installation
available, much research needed to bring down costs
significantly
16+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas
??5%
available, but research needed in
some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
2.5 - 4p7 - 13p depending on
technology
Transport Fuels:
• Biodiesel?
• Bioethanol?
• Compressed gas from methane from waste.
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
11
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
11Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind ~10% available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p ~8.2p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind
10 - 15%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but
research needed 2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p depending on technology
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited-major development
not before 20204 - 8p
No information but likely to
be ~20p
19p +/- 6 Tidal
26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave
12
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
12Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind ~10% available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p ~8.2p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind
10- 15%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but
research needed 2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p depending on technology
Wave/Tidal Stream
currently < 10 MW may be
1000 - 2000 MW (~0.1%)
technology limited-major development
not before 20204 - 8p
No information but likely to
be ~20p
19p +/- 6 Tidal
26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave
13
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
13Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind ~10% available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p ~8.2p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind
10 - 15%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but
research needed 2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p depending on technology
Wave/Tidal Stream
~0.1% technology limited- 4 - 8p ~20p??Tidal ~19p
Wave ~26.5p
Severn Barrage/ Mersey Barrages have been considered frequently
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
Severn Barrage could provide 5-8% of UK electricity needs
In Orkney – Churchill Barriers
Output ~80 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses in Orkney but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables southWould save 40000 tonnes of CO2
26p +/-5Tidal
Barrages5 - 15%
technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. In 2010
Government abandoned plans for development
14
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
14Future prices from Electricity Market Reform Consultation or Climate Change Report or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers
2002 (Gas ~ 2p)
Jan 2011 (Gas ~ 8.3p)
May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind ~10% available now ~ 2+p ~8.8p +/- 0.8p ~8.2p +/- 0.8pOff Shore Wind
10 - 15%available but costly
~2.5 - 3p ~11.5 -14p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects
Photovoltaic <<5% available, but very
costly15+ p ~27 - 41p 25p +/-8
Biomass ??5% available, but
research needed 2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p depending on technology
Wave/Tidal Stream
~0.1% technology limited- 4 - 8p ~20p??Tidal ~19p
Wave ~26.5p
Tidal Barrages 5 - 15%technology available but unlikely for 2020.
Construction time ~10 years. In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development
26p +/-5
Geothermal unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to
be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consumed electricity
15
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY – confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
Our Choices: They are difficult
16
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another
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nuclear new nuclear coal
new coal oil renewablesgas medium renewables high renewables
Our looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
We need an integrated energy supply which is diverse and secure.
We need to take Energy out of Party Politics.!
18
The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raisingElectricity Consumption
0
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No of people in household
kW
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2 people
3 people
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Variation in Electricity Cosumption
-100%
-50%
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Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption
Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007
For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
18
1919
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Mean |External Temperature (oC)
En
ergy
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ay)
Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy
Good Management has reduced Energy Requirements
800
350
Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57%
CO2 emissions reduced by 17.5 tonnes per annum. 19
Performance of ZICER Building
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
0
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• Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.
• Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.
• Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault
• Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
Low Energy Lighting Installed
20
Pilot Lights £9 per week
Pilot lights
off
Pilot Lights turned off
during week
Good Record Keeping and Analysis can result in significant savings
St Paul’s Church, Tuckswood
Heated by 3 warm air heaters
New Strategy: pilot lights off throughout summer and used strategically in winter resulted in an annual saving of:5400 kWh of gas; 1030 kg of CO2 ; and a monetary saving of £260Or a percentage saving of 38%
The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising
kWh % cost Rank % Renewables 2008Norwich 3,535 79% 6 0.0%Ipswich 4,349 97% 159 0.0%Waveney 4,417 99% 181 1.9%Broadland 4,618 103% 231 3.0%Great Yarmouth 4,699 105% 252 30.0%St Edmundsbury 4,869 109% 280 1.0%Breckland 5,028 112% 312 31.8%Forest Heath 5,174 116% 336 0.0%Babergh 5,252 117% 343 0.1%South Norfolk 5,347 119% 358 5.0%Suffolk Coastal 5,371 120% 360 1.0%North Norfolk 5,641 126% 385 1.3%Mid Suffolk 5,723 128% 390 18.3%King's Lynn and West Norfolk 5,731 128% 393 2.5%
UK Average 4478• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities
Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumptionin Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission factors)
Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn
Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk - 2009
Installations under the Feed In Tariff Scheme (11/05/2011)
23
Technology
Domestic Installations
Other Installations* Total
NumberInstalled Capacity
(MW)Number
Installed Capacity
(MW)Number
Installed Capacity
(MW)
NorfolkHydro 2 0.021 1 0.49 2 0.021Micro CHP 4 0.003 0 0 3 0.003Photovoltaic 749 1.883 12 0.099 761 1.982Wind 21 0.153 6 0.040 27 0.193
Total 775 2.060 18 0.139 793 2.198SuffolkHydro 0 0 0 0 0 0.000Micro CHP 1 0.001 0 0 1 0.001Photovoltaic 748 1.904 8 0.039 756 1.944Wind 19 0.125 2 0.011 21 0.136Total 768 2.030 10 0.050 778 2.080
• * Commercial, Industrial and Community Schemes.• Note: Chris Huhne announced a potential curtailment of large PV
FIT schemes (>50kW) in early February 2011.
Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology
24
Solar Thermal solutions can provide hot water
• However, performance can be significantly affected by way normal central heating boiler is used for backup.
• A factor of two in output has been measured for otherwise identical installations
0.0
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5.0
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kWh/
day
BSD1 BS01
BS02 BS16
BS17 BS26
BS27 BS52
Low Carbon Strategies: making efficient use of technology
3 units each generating 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat
25
e.g. UEA’s Combined Heat and Power
Improved insulation, improved appliance efficiency, (power packs, lighting etc, etc). Energy conserving technologies e.g. heat pumps, CHP etc.
26
1997/98 electricity gas oil Total
MWh 19895 35148 33
Emission factor kg/kWh 0.46 0.186 0.277
Carbon dioxide Tonnes 9152 6538 9 15699
Electricity Heat
1999/ 2000Total site
CHP generation
export import boilers CHP oil total
MWh 20437 15630 977 5783 14510 28263 923Emission
factorkg/kWh -0.46 0.46 0.186 0.186 0.277
CO2 Tonnes -449 2660 2699 5257 256 10422
Before installation
After installation
This represents a 33% saving in carbon dioxide26
Significant Savings in CO2 emissions are possible with CHP
A 1 MW Adsorption chiller
• Uses Waste Heat from CHP
•Provides chilling requirements in summer
•Reduces electricity demand in summer
•Increases electricity generated locally
•Saves ~500 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually.
27
Load Factor of CHP Plant at UEA• Demand for Heat is low in
summer: plant cannot be used effectively.
• More electricity could be generated in summer
• A Paradox: Largest amount of electricity was imported when demand was least!
For optimum results: Care in matching demand is needed
• Peak output is 34 kW
• All electricity must be converted from DC to AC by use of inverters.
• Inverters are only 91% efficient
28
Building Integrated Renewable Electricity Generation
Typical Solar Array: ZICER Building, UEA
• Most use of electricity is for computers
• DC power packs are typically ~70% efficient
• Only 2/3rds of costly electricity is used effectively.
• An integrated system in a new building would have both a DC and AC network.
• Reduced heat gain in building leading to less air-conditioning requirements.
29
A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future: A summary
4. Using Renewable Energy
UEA Advanced Gasifier CHP
5. Offset Carbon Emissions
3. Using Efficient Equipment
1. Raising Awareness
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Original Heating Strategy New Heating Strategy
O
2. Good Management
29
30
Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions
Some costs for providing a low carbon future
• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved
• On-shore wind under Renewable obligation ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved
• Cavity Insulation - £30 to - £80 per tonne CO2 saved i.e. cost negative [based on 30 year]
• Effective Energy Management can also often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved.
• An effective strategy for a low carbon economy will focus on most cost effective solutions first.
31
Conclusions
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist Philosopher
"If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading."
And Finally!
Some costs for providing a low carbon future• Energy Security and a Low Carbon Strategies are important
for a sustainable and prosperous future and should not focus just on energy generation but also on energy reduction
• Significant savings in monetary and carbon terms can be achieved through awareness raising
• Better management can lead to significant and often cheaper solutions for a low carbon future
• Important to Integrate effectively the use of newer technologies with actual demand
e.g. local generation avoiding unnecessary losses – also avoid unnecessary conversion form DC to AC etc.
32
33
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
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hours
Ind
ex
rela
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o m
ax
imu
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single wind farmall "visible" windfarmsdemand
Variation in UK Electricity and Demand and Wind Generation.
-60%-50%-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%
0 12 24 36 48 60 72Hours
Var
iati
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rom
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and
windnuclear
• A single wind farm may have moderate variation in output
• Output smoothed if whole UK is considered.
• Demand also has significant diurnal variation
Data for 23-25th February 2011 from www.bmreports.com
• Output from nuclear plant is nearly constant
• difference in variation in nuclear output compared to demand is comparable with difference in demand and wind generation
34
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
Electricity exported from Norfolk/Suffolk in 2009 to rest of UK ~ 3200 GWh representing a net CO2 saving of ~ 1.43 Mtonnes
At £12.50 per tonne (current EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved.
• However – in 2010, Sizewell B was off line from over 6 months, so is this low carbon electricity sustainable?
• Is such a reliance on a single source a secure or sustainable?
• From BBC Website – 27th May 2008
“Hundreds of thousands of homes suffered power cuts after a fault caused an unplanned shutdown at the Sizewell B nuclear power plant in Suffolk. Homes and businesses in London, and East Anglia were affected…..”
• Local generation avoids most transmission and distribution losses and small scale schemes avoid such major power blackouts.
• However – over decentralisation may lead to distribution grid problems if there is no reinforcement.
35
Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic
Photovoltaic cells are expensive, but integration of ideas is needed.
Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year.
The New Feed In Tariff form April 1st will make things more attractive. 41p per unit generated – an extra 3p if exported.
But those who have installed PV will get the benefit from increased payments for electricity by those who have not.
* Electricity Markey Reform Consultation – January 2011** Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee 36
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
drivers/barriers
Energy Review
2002late 2010 (*)
9th May 2011 (**)
Gas CCGT0 - 80%
(currently 45-50%)
Available now (but UK gas running
out rapidly)~2p +
~8.3p +/-3p
8.0p[5 - 11]
Projection made in/on
Wholesale Electricity Price surge in January and December 2010 when Gas imports are high.
UK becomes net importer of gas
Completion of Langeled Gas Line to Norway
Oil reaches $140 a barrelGovernment Projections of wholesale price of gas generation
37
Energy Source Scale To 31/03/11 From 01/04/11 Duration (years)
Anaerobic digestion ≤500kW 11.5 12.1 20Anaerobic digestion >500kW 9 9.4 20Hydro ≤15 kW 19.9 20.9 20Hydro >15 - 100kW 17.8 18.7 20Hydro >100kW - 2MW 11 11.5 20Hydro >2kW - 5MW 4.5 4.7 20Micro-CHP***** <2 kW 10 10.5 10Solar PV ≤4 kW new 36.1 37.8 25Solar PV ≤4 kW retrofit 41.3 43.3 25Solar PV >4-10kW 36.1 37.8 25Solar PV >10 - 100kW 31.4 32.9 25Solar PV >100kW - 5MW 29.3 30.7 25Solar PV Standalone 29.3 30.7 25Wind ≤1.5kW 34.5 36.2 20Wind >1.5 - 15kW 26.7 28.0 20Wind >15 - 100kW 24.1 25.3 20Wind >100 - 500kW 18.8 19.7 20Wind >500kW - 1.5MW 9.4 9.9 20Wind >1.5MW - 5MW 4.5 4.7 20Existing generators transferred from RO 9 9.4 to 2027
Export Tariff 3 3.1
Feed in Tariffs – Introduced 1st April 2010
***** for first 30000 installations
38
Raising Awareness
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon.
• Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year.
• Filling up with petrol (~£55 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon)
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour?
1.6 miles
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya
39
Mostly Eye and Thetford
Scroby
Renewable Energy Generation in Suffolk and Norfolk 2009 - 10
Generation in GWh
stations GWhCapacity
(kW)Load
Factor
Biomass 3 326 61816 60.2%Landfill Gas
18 127 26719 54.3%
Off-shore Wind
1 170 60000 32.3%
On-shore Wind
5 58 24500 27.0%
Sewage Gas
2 10 4836 23.6%
Total 29 691 177871
Total Demand in Norfolk and Suffolk 7803.2 GWh% Renewables 8.9%
National Average 7.8%
Target 10.4%
40
How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person per year.
On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)