Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES ‐ R and Advanced IR Soundings Jun Li 1,...
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Recent Progress on High Impact Weather Forecast with GOES‐R and Advanced IR Soundings
Jun Li1, Jinlong Li1, Jing Zheng1, Tim Schmit2, and Hui Liu3
1 University of Wisconsin-Madison2 Center for Satellite Applications and Research, NESDIS/NOAA
3 National Center for Atmospheric Research
Warn-on-Forecast and High Impact Weather Workshop08 – 09 Feb 2012, Norman, OK
Outline• Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor
measurements for high impact weather (HIW) forecasting through data assimilation;– MODIS TPW, AMSR-E TPW, and GOES Sounder PW as proxy– WRF/DART, WRF/3DVAR
• Improve high impact weather forecasts with advanced IR soundings;
• Verify impact with in-situ measurements, hurricane track and intensity observations, GOES Imager, and microwave measurements;
• 2012 plan – value added impact on HIW forecasts with advanced IR soundings when combining GOES-R and polar sounders.
Typhoon Sinlaku (2008)
Sinlaku PathSinlaku rapid intensification (9 – 10 September 2008) observed
1. Prepare for GOES-R high temporal water vapor measurements for high impact weather forecasting through data assimilation
Terra TPW
Aqua TPW
AMSR-E TPW
Terra MODIS (upper left), Aqua MODIS (lower left) and AMSR-E (upper right) TPW images over ocean for 10 September 2008. The spatial resolution is 5 km for MODIS TPW and 17 km for AMSR-E TPW.
CTLAMSR-E TPWMODIS TPWObs
GOES-R LAP algorithm improves operational MODIS TPW product; the new MODIS TPW with GOES-R algorithm will be used in 2012 HIW studies
MYD07GOES-R Alg.
GOES Sounder
GOES-R ABI
GOES Sounder (left) and GOES-R ABI (right) water vapor weighting functions
GOES RegGOES Phy
9
GOES (W11+E13), +/- 5min
06:00
05:30
06:30
05:55
06:05
n = 10112=9207(E13)+905(W11)
Hourly Precipitation Forecasts in Early Stage
2012/5/10 01 Z ~ 2012/5/10 12 Z
Forecast with Conventional data
OBS Forecast with GOES Sounder
Hourly precipitation forecast from 00 Z – 12 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).
Cumulative precipitation forecast from 00Z to 06 Z 05-10-2010 over CONUS with WRF/3DVAR, model resolution is 12 km, GOES Sounder 300 – 700 hPa precipitable water (PW) is used every 3 hours (preliminary results).
ObservationForecast withGOES Sounder
Forecast withConventional
AIRS (10 August 2009) CrIS (20 January 2012) global coverage
(provided by Dave Tobin – CIMSS/SSEC)
2. Improve high impact weather with advanced IR soundings
(K)
(K)
AIRS 500 hPa atmospheric temperatures in clear skies (06 September 2008) for hurricane Ike
OBSCTLAIRS-TQHurricane at 2008090606
CTLAIRS-TQ
CTL: radiosondes, satellite winds, pilot report, GPS, ship, profiler, surface observations AIRS-TQ: CTL + AIRS-TQ
AIRS soundings provide value-added information to conventional observations(Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike - 2008)
AIRS single FOV soundings in clear skies are used. WRF/3DVAR (12 km resolution) forecasting and assimilation system is used. Assimilation is done every 6 hours. 0-h is from analysis, others are forecasts (06 UTC 06 September 2008 – 00 UTC 10 September 2008).
72-hour ensemble forecasts – Hurricane Irene (2011) (from 06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)
CTLAIRSObs
Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolutionControl (CTL): assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data;AIRS: CTL + AIRS temperature and moisture soundings
Irene (2011) track forecasts Irene (2011) sea level pressure forecasts
Central sea level pressure forecast RMSE - Hurricane Irene (2011)(06 UTC 23 to 00 UTC 25 August 2011)
CTL run: assimilate radiosonde, satellite cloud winds, QuikSCAT winds, aircraft data, COSMIC GPS refractivity, ship, and land surface data.AIRS run: CTL + AIRS soundings
CTLAIRS
Assimilation method: WRF/DART with 36 km resolution
AMSR-E TPW(090716 - 090719) TPW forecast (090718) with GTS
TPW forecasts with GTS and AIRS
(mm) (mm)
(mm)TPW forecast RMSE using collocated AMSR-E as reference ((06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September))
No AIRSWith AIRS
3. Verify impact – using AMSR-E TWP
Impact of sounding bias correction on
TC forecasts
Track forecast RMSE for hurricane Ike (2008) (06 UTC 06 September – 00 UTC 10 September)
AIRS no BCAIRS with BC
4. Summary and 2012 plans• GOES Sounder, MODIS, AMSR-E TPW as proxy for GOES-R
shows positive impact on HIW forecasts;• Advanced IR soundings provide positive impact on tropical cyclone
intensity and track analysis/forecasts;• WRF/DART and WRF/3DVAR provide consistent results;• 2012 plans on HIW studies
– Use GSI to emulate operational environment; focus on using GOES Sounder for preparing GOES-R applications;
– Study value added impact with advanced IR soundings (radiances or retrievals) on HIW forecasts when combining GOES-R and polar-orbiting sounders;
– Continue collaboration with ESRL RAP modeling group;– Collaborate with JPSS sounding team (Chris Barnet) on using AIRS/CrIS
(including AMSU and ATMS).