Recent development and applications of GCAM-China:CCS in ...
Transcript of Recent development and applications of GCAM-China:CCS in ...
RecentdevelopmentandapplicationsofGCAM-China: CCSinChina’sMitigationStrategy
JOINTGLOBALCHANGERESEARCHINSTITUTE
GCAMCommunityModelingMeeting2017
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SHA YU, JILL HORING, QIANG LIU, ROBERT DAHOWSKI, CASIE DAVIDSON, JAMES EDMONDS, BO LIU, HAEWON MCJEON, JEFF MCLEOD, PRALIT PATEL, LEON CLARKE
HowcouldCCShelpChinaachieveitsNDCandlong-termmitigationtarget?
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WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?
WhatisthepathwaybywhichChinamightevolvefromnear-term,pilotprojecttolarge-scaledeployment?
WhatmightbethemostappropriateprovincesfordeploymentofCCS?
WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?
Motivation – importance of CCS in China
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Many countries are pursuing policies to reduce their fossil fuel CO2emissions
There is a need to understand potential future energy system transformationsCCS technologies carry important implications for fossil fuel markets
China is the world’s largest CO2 emitter and relies heavily on domestic fossil fuel resources
Understanding CCS deployment in China would be critical to informing research and development directionsChanges in China’s policy influence coal use and thus global coal market.
StandardGCAM:32geopoliticalregionsToexploreregionalactivitiesinChina,wehaveaddedsubnational detailtoGCAM(versionname:GCAM-China):
31-provinceenergyandeconomicsystemAgricultureandlandusebyagro-ecologicalzonesWatersupplyanddemandatmajorwatershedscale
TheregionaldetailisimbeddedinthebroaderGCAMmodel,thusprovidingglobalconstraintsandcontext.
ThemodeliscurrentlyusedbyinstitutionsinChinaforpolicyanalyses:
AccesstodataUnderstandingChina’spolicydecisionsIdentifyingpotentialmarketsforUStechnologies
GCAM-China – Regional Modeling in a Global Context
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Recent Model Developments
Shared socioeconomic pathways assumptions at the provincial level
Carbon storage cost curves
Better calibration and improvements in assumptions
CCS technology readiness
Renewable energy competitiveness
On-going developmentsAddition of nonCO2s at the provincial level
Industrial sector breakout
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Cost($
/tCO
2)
CumulativeSuppliedCCSCapacity(MtCO2)
Shandong
OilFields
CoalRegions
DeepSalineFormations
ProvincialCCSCostCurves
6Sources: Dahowski et al., 2013.
1,600largeCO2 pointsources(powerplantsandindustrialsources)
2,300,000MtCO2 storagecapacity
EOR,coalbasins,deepsalineformations
Significantopportunityforbothlow-costandmoderatelypricedstorage
(Erlian Basin,OrdosBasin) (Bohai BayBasin)
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CumulativeSuppliedCCSCapacity(MtCO2)
InnerMongolia
Scenarios to Understand Energy Demand and Technology Options
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CO2 emissionswithoutclimatepolicy CO2 emissionswithclimatepolicy
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
Uncertaintyinenergydemand
Uncertaintyinenergysupply
system
Advancednuclearandrenewabletechnologies
AvailabilityofCCSretrofit
Deepdecarbonization:CopenhagenandParispledges,
5%decarbonizationperyearafter2030
ScenarioDevelopment– SharedsocioeconomicpathwaysandParis-IncreasedAmbition
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SSP5
SSP3
SSP2SSP1
Paris-IncreasedAmbitionfromFawcettetal.(2015)
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12000
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2005 2015 2025 2035 2045
CO2Em
ission
s(MtCO
2)
SSP4
SSP1– SSP5includevaryingassumptionsofpopulationandGDPgrowth,incomeelasticity
ProvinciallevelpopulationandGDPgrowthratesconvergetocountrylevelinthelongterm
Onlydemand-sideSSPassumptionswereused
PolicyscenarioacrossallSSPsistheParis-IncreasedAmbition
CopenhagenandParispledgesaremet,continueddecarbonization of5%peryear
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China’sP
rimaryEn
ergyCon
sumption
(EJ)
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
China’sP
rimaryEn
ergyCon
sumption
(EJ)
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
solar
wind
hydro
geothermal
nuclear
traditionalbiomass
biomass
naturalgas
oil
coal9
SSP5- Reference SSP5- Policy
SSP3- Reference SSP3- Policy
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
Transition of China’s energy system
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2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
solar
wind
hydro
geothermal
nuclear
traditionalbiomass
biomass
naturalgas
oil
coalCoalis64%ofPrimaryEnergyinReference
Withincreasedshareofcleanenergy,
Coalstillaccountsfor45- 52%ofChina’s
energy
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0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
CO2Captured
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EmissionReductionfromRef(%)
CGEM MESSAGE TIMES IPAC GCAM SACC
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% EmissionsReductionfromRef(%)
CGEM MESSAGE TIMES IPAC GCAM SACC
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WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?
IPACTIMESGCAM – SSP5GCAM – SSP3
SACC - LC SACC - ELCMESSAGE
CGEM
GCAM – SSP5
SACC - ELC
MESSAGE
IPACSACC - LC TIMES
CGEM – S2B
CGEM – S2AGCAM – SSP3
NeartermuncertaintyinCCSdeploymentlevel
Mid-centurytrendacrossmodels– asmitigationlevelincreases,roleofCCSincreases
2030 2050
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WhatisthepathwaybywhichChinamightevolvefromnear-term,pilotprojecttolarge-scaledeployment?
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SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
SSP5
-Ad
vTech
SSP1
SSP2
SSP3
SSP4
SSP5
SSP5
-Ad
vTech
2015 2030 2050
CO2Capture(M
tCO2)
Syntheticfuelproduction Industry Electricity
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
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2030
2040
2050
Sequestration(policy)Emissions(Ref)
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
SSP5
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2 Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
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2030
2040
2050
Emissions(Ref)
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
SSP5
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2 Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Capture is driven by emissions, energy structure, and available storage
Sequestration(policy)
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2030
2040
2050
Emissions(Ref)
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
SSP5
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2 Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Capture is driven by emissions, energy structure, and available storage
High emissions, high capture: Inner Mongolia
Sequestration(policy)
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2030
2040
2050
Emissions(Ref)
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
SSP5
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2
Unit: Gt CO2 Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Unit: Mt CO2
Capture is driven by emissions, energy structure, and available storage
High emissions, low capture: Guangdong
Sequestration(policy)
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Carbon
Captured(M
tCO2)
Syntheticfuel Industry Electricity 16
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
InnerMongolia
Sichuan
Hebei
HenanShandong
Hubei
Liaoning
Hunan
MtCO2
Shanxi
Jiangsu50%oftotalcapturefromtop8provinces
WhatmightbethemostappropriateprovincesfordeploymentofCCS?
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
0255075100125150175
Carbon
Captured(M
tCO2)
Syntheticfuel Industry Electricity17
1
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5
1098
InnerMongolia
ShandongHebei
Henan
ZhejiangSichuan Hubei
Hunan
Jiangsu
MtCO2Xinjiang
50%oftotalcapturefromtop7provinces
WhatmightbethemostappropriateprovincesfordeploymentofCCS?
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
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2015-2050Cu
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pture(M
tCO
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Availablestorage(MtCO2) 18
800000 850000 900000
10% Storage Utilization
Inner Mongolia
ShandongHebei
Henan
Zhejiang
JiangsuSichuan
HunanLiaoningHubei
2050
WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
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2015-2100Cu
mulativeCa
pture(M
tCO
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Availablestorage(MtCO2) 19
800000 850000 900000
50% Storage Utilization
Inner Mongolia
Shandong
Hebei
Henan
Hubei Jiangsu
Sichuan
Hunan
ShanxiXinjiang
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WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?
PRELIMINARYRESULTS:NOTFORDISTRIBUTIONORATTRIBUTION
A few provinces, such as Guangdong, have limited onshore storage capacity and need to explore offshore storage.
HowcouldCCShelpChinaachieveitsNDCandlong-termmitigationtarget?
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WhatareexpectationsforthescaleofCCSdeploymentinChinathrough2050?ChinaisanidealcandidateforCCSdeploymentwithlarge-scalestoragecapacityandanemphasisoncoalintheenergysystem.UseofCCSwilldependonpolicyapproachesandtotalmitigationneeds.
WhatisthepathwaybywhichChinamightevolvefromnear-term,pilotprojecttolarge-scaledeployment?
Near-termCO2 capturewilllikelyfocusonindustrialandsynfuel sectors,whilecaptureinthepowersectorwouldbecomemoreprominentinthelongterm.
WhatmightbethemostappropriateprovincesfordeploymentofCCS?
Severalprovinces,suchasInnerMongolia,ShandongandHebei,emergeaskeyplayersinboththenearandlongterm.
WillavailableCO2 storagecapacityactasaconstraintforfutureCCSdeployment?Formostprovinces,storagewillnotbeaconstraintthroughtheendofthecentury.Severalimportantprovincesarewithoutmeaningfulon-landstorageandwouldthereforerequireoffshorestorage.
Thank you to the Office of Fossil Energy at the US Department of Energy.
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