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Recent Changes and Future Directions In Travel Behaviorfaculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/Recent...
Transcript of Recent Changes and Future Directions In Travel Behaviorfaculty.washington.edu/jbs/itrans/Recent...
Recent Changes and Future Directions In Travel Behavior
www.travelbehavior.us
Novel Modes Workshop Nancy McGuckin
Travel Behavior Analyst
Outline of this discussion:
• Context of travel behavior (e.g. travel as derived demand—but not exclusively!)
• Recent changes indicate an unprecedented shift: people are traveling less for daily activities
• Look at the layered effect of demographic, social, economic, and technological changes
• Some thoughts on future directions
www.travelbehavior.us
People travel to engage in activities:
Mandatory travel (work, school) have little flexibility in schedule or location
Maintenance travel (shopping, errands) have more flexibility in time and/or location
Discretionary activities (social visit, recreation) have the most flexibility in time and location
Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type
Mandatory
Maintenance
Discretionary
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Mandatory activities are dominated by work:
Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type
Mandatory
Maintenance
Discretionary
Other work related
Return to Work
Go to work
School/rel. activityAttend meeting
Attend school
Here I’m using work tours which include work trips chained with incidental stops for other purposes.
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Three-quarters of travel for maintenance activities includes shopping, errands, and meals…
Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type
Mandatory
Maintenance
Discretionary
Other
Buy gas
Medical/dental
Shopping/errands
Buy services:vide
o/dry
cleaner/post office/car
service/bank
Get/eat meal
Buy goods: Groceries/clothing/
hardware, etc
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Discretionary is the most diverse: Proportion of Daily Trips by Activity Type
Mandatory
Maintenance
Discretionary
Other
Coffee/ice
cream/snacks
Family and
personal
Go to religious
activity
Visit friends and
rels
Go out to to
entertainment/
sports event/bar
other uncoded
Go to
gym/exercise
/sports
Social/Rec
www.travelbehavior.us
-20% -19%
-20% -20%
-11%
-2% -3% -5%
1%
5% 8%
2%
24% 22%
10%
Perc
ent
Ch
ange
in V
MT
per
Cap
ita
fro
m 1
99
5-2
00
9
Percent Change in VMT per Capita Comparing people in these age groups between 1995 and 2009
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54
55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+
Young age groups have changed the most--their decline in driving has garnered some interest. This graph compares changes in driving rates by age group:
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Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series, comparing VMT per capita from the NHTS data series, 1995-2009
15-19
The younger age group (millenials) are a big cohort, at least as numerous as the baby-boom:
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In 2030, Millenials will outnumber Baby-Boomers by 22 million:
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census historic tables 1900 to 2010, and 2030 forecast
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
10,500
VM
T/C
apit
a p
er Y
ear
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As a result of big changes in a big population group, overall national trends show an unprecedented change:
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of Census Population (Jul 1) and HPMS Historic VM-1 Tables including all VMT and Census Population Estimates
Summary • The shifts in travel are strongest
in younger age groups—Millenials--especially young men.
• Baby Boomers are driving much more than people of the same age two decades ago, but even their travel is slowing as the exit the workforce and age past driving.
• The same phenomenon (declines in travel) occurs throughout the western world
www.travelbehavior.us
Source: The Economist, the Future of Driving, 2012 at: http://www.economist.com/node/21563280/
• Economic Necessity
• Information-Communication Technology
• Social Value of Travel
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• Work trips per worker about the same, BUT fewer workers and fewer workers commuting to work (as baby boomers started to retire)
• More people working at home
• On-line higher education (in part or in whole)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1995 2001 2009
Mill
ions
Work at Home Doubled in Urban Areas
Rural
Urban
Economic necessity: Mandatory travel has declined the least
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Technological replacement: Maintenance travel declined the most. On-Line activity is literally changing urban landscapes.
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0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600
Barnes and Noble
Best Buy
Sears + JC Penny
Radio Shack
Staples + Office Depot + Office Max
Circuit City
GameStop
Borders
Tower Record
Independent book stores
Block Buster
Independent record stores
Number of US Stores Closed, 2009-2014
Defunct
Nancy McGuckin’s analysis, sources: Business Insider, Wikipedia, USA Today
Social Value of Travel: Discretionary travel stayed about the same:
Local discretionary travel
stayed about the same. Long-distance travel
increased slightly (This graph shows the increase
in air travel (red line) while vehicle travel flattened (the blue line)
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
Annual Numeric Estimate
VMT Air Passenger Revenue Miles
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Source: McGuckin’s analysis of HPMS and BTS data
• Social impacts: New attitudes toward vehicle ownership
• Economic impacts: Shift to transit during gas price spikes
• Situational: Walk and bike when possible for exercise and pleasure
• Environmental: Hybrid/alternative fuel vehicles
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Social impacts on mode: Attitudes may be changing about auto ownership
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1995 2001 2009
Perc
ent
Percent of People by Age in Zero Veh HHs
25-29
All Other
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series
“For Millennials, cars are not status symbols; they are perceived as unnecessary luxuries that are:
▫ Expensive
▫ Harmful to the environment
▫ Antisocial
They would rather own a great smartphone or laptop instead. (Real-time, portable technology helps to confer the sense of “freedom” that owning a car does not)”
Latitudes Report on Phase 1 findings for
TCRP “Millenials and Mobility”
Economic impacts on mode: Rising gas prices do effect choice of mode
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Perc
ent
of
Trip
s to
Wo
rk
Mo
nth
ly G
as C
ost
Walk and Bike to Work And Monthly Avg. Gas Cost, 2008 Average Monthly Gas Cost all Formualtions all Grades Walk/Bike To Work
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS, Gas Cost from EIA.GOV
www.travelbehavior.us
Demographic impacts on mode: Although there has been a lot of new interest in cycling, cyclists are getting older (and fewer children are cycling):
www.travelbehavior.us 18
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of NHTS Data Series
32.3 34.1
39.9 42.7
1990 1995 2001 2009
Average Age of Cyclists 16 and older
Baby Boomers continue to cycle and the average adult cyclist is over ten years older
than he(she) was just two decades ago.
Aging of this group impacts
infrastructure design for cyclists in many of the same ways it does for pedestrians
and drivers.
Vehicle technology impact on mode: Where is the hybrid market going?
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
CAR Pick-Up SUV VanHybrid/Alt Fuel
Mile
s p
er V
eh
icle
Pe
rce
nt o
f F
lee
t
Percent of Fleet Miles per Vehicle
Source: McGuckin’s analysis of 2009 NHTS
Currently, the largest segment of
hybrid car owners is the Baby Boomers; however Gen Y will
make up about forty percent of car
buyers within 10 years.
www.travelbehavior.us
People who drive Hybrid/alt fuel vehicles are richer, older, live further from work and drive more miles overall:
NHTS 2009 Var Name:
Label Drives a Hybrid
Drives another Passenger
Vehicle
Income Household Income
$82,777
$76,135
R_AGE Respondent Age
48.09
46.62
VEHMILES Miles vehicle driven last 12 months
14,260
11,258
VEHAGE Vehicle Age
3.6 years
9.0 years
DISTTOWK Distance to Work in Miles
18.2 miles
14.4 miles
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Walking Driving Bus/Rail Bicycle
Optimal SituationsNice Outside
Need Exercise
Getting There
ASAP
Bad Weather
Shopping
To or From
Work
Alone
Nice Outside
Need Exercise
Pereived benefits
Better for
Environment
Affordable
Connected to
Community
More Personal
Space
Flexible
Pay-per-
Use/Affordable
Better for
Environment
Better for
Environment
Affordable
Connected to
Community
Top Barriers Slow Too ExpensiveLack of
Personal Space
Slow
Not Child
Friendly
Not Compatible
with Other
Modes
Source: TCRP Study of Millenials and Mobility, Latitudes Phase 2 Findings, page 15
For people with many choices available, Mode use can be situational (rather than habitual):
Source: TCRP Study of Millenials and Mobility, Latitudes Phase 2 Findings, page 16
www.travelbehavior.us
It seems millenials in the cities studied balance competing factors in their transport choices:
Source: TCRP Study of Millenials and Mobility, Latitudes Phase 2 Findings, page 16
Convenience Exercise Save Money Environmentally Friendly Enjoyable (“Great down time”)
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• Widespread adoption of new technology • Some evidence for substitution effects for social and shopping • System-wide changes in the brick-and-mortar and delivery for goods and services • “A Million Markets of One”
People are responding to changes in information technology the way people do:
www.travelbehavior.us
Incrementally
Via Peer Culture
Economically
Hard-to-quantify
System-wide changes are taking place all around us: (and faster than I can make a new slide!)
Old School New School
• Bookstores
• Travel Agent
• Blockbuster
• Avis/Hertz
• Greyhound
• Taxi
• Priceline
• Facebook/Myspace
• Big Data
• The Internet
• Amazon /Kindle
• On-line booking
• Streaming Video
• Zipcar
• Megabus
• Uber/Lyft
• Hotel Tonight
• IM/Skype/Vine
• Bigger Data
• The Internet of Things
www.travelbehavior.us
Increase in small commercial vehicle travel may be related to internet deliveries…
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2008
Purc
hases in
last
Month
Average Number of On-Line Purchases
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
Annual M
iles
VMT from "Other 2-Axle/4-Tire Vehicle"
Source: USPS HDS Data, 2008 from NHTS Source: Historic HPMS
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Source: McGuckins analysis and projection of HPMS VM-1 data, re-creating the US PIRG graphic Fig 1 in “New Directions’
And urban goods delivery will continues
to grow:
The E-Deliver
Bike-train
Technology enables “a million markets of one”--individualized modes based on context
New mobility apps:
Smart Transactions (infrastructure use, insurance, parking, etc):
• Digital maps and navigation
• Location-based services
• Multi-modal journey planners
• Multi-modal traveler information services
• Pay as you driver/insure as you drive
• Credit card smart phone ticketing
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Thank you! Recent Changes and Future Directions
in Travel Behavior
Nancy McGuckin
www.travelbehavior.us
www.travelbehavior.us