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Transcript of Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget updated to 2006 GCP-Global Carbon Budget team: Pep...
Recent Carbon Trends and the Global Carbon Budget
updated to 2006
GCP-Global Carbon Budget team:Pep Canadell, Philippe Ciais, Thomas Conway, Chris Field, Corinne Le Quéré, Skee Houghton,
Gregg Marland, Mike Raupach, Erik Buitenhuis, Nathan Gillett
Last update: 13 June 2008
Outline
1. Recent global carbon trends (2000-2006)
2. The perturbation of the global carbon budget (1850-2006)
3. The declining efficiency of natural CO2 sinks
4. Attribution of the recent acceleration of atmospheric CO2
5. Conclusions and implications for climate change
1. Recent global carbon trends
FAO-Global Resources Assessment 2005; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Tropical Americas 0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Asia 0.6 Pg C y-1
Tropical Africa 0.3 Pg C y-1
2000-2005
Tropical deforestation
13 Million hectares each year
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change
1.5 Pg C y-1
Born
eo, C
ourte
sy: V
iktor
Boe
hm
Houghton, unpublished
Carbon Emissions from Tropical DeforestationP
g C
yr-1
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.40
1.60
1.8018
50
1860
1870
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Africa
Latin America
S. & SE Asia
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Land Use Change
SUM
2000-2006
1.5 Pg C y-1
(16% total emissions)
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Fossil Fuel
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Canadell et al 2007, PNAS
1990 - 1999: 1.3% y-1
2000 - 2006: 3.3% y-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Fo
ssil
Fu
el E
mis
sio
n (
GtC
/y) Emissions
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
2006 Fossil Fuel: 8.4 Pg C[2006-Total Anthrop. Emissions:8.4+1.5 = 9.9 Pg]
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for 2000-2010:
A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71A1T: 1.63A2: 2.13B1: 1.79B2: 1.61
Observed 2000-2006 3.3%
Carbon Intensity of the Global Economy
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Carb
on in
tens
ity
(KgC
/US$
)Kg Carbon Emitted
to Produce 1 $ of Wealth
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006
Phot
o: C
SIRO
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1980
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1980
World
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
F (emissions)P (population)g = G/Ph = F/G
Fact
or (r
elat
ive to
199
0)
EmissionsPopulationWealth = per capita GDPCarbon intensity of GDP
Drivers of Anthropogenic Emissions
Regional Pathways (Kaya identity)
C emissions
Population
C Intensity
Developed Countries (-)
Developing Countries Least Developed Countries
Wealth pc
Raupach et al 2007, PNAS
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
CumulativeEmissions
[1751-2004]
Fluxin 2004
FluxGrowthin 2004
Populationin 2004
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100% D3-Least Developed Countries
India
D2-Developing Countries
ChinaFSU D1-Developed CountriesJapanEU
USA
Anthropogenic C Emissions: Regional Contributions
2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
Year 2007Atmospheric CO2
concentration:
382.6 ppm35% above pre-industrial
NOAA 2007; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Atmospheric CO2 Concentration 0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
280
300
320
340
360
380
400
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Atm
oap
her
ic [
CO
2]
(pp
mv)
[CO2]
2 ppm/year
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
[CO2]
deforestation
tropicsextra-tropics
1.5
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
deforestation
fossil fuel emissions
7.6
1.5
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
atmospheric CO2
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
atmospheric CO2
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
ocean
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
2000-2006
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.22.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget (1959-2006)
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
CO2 y
-1)
Carb
on fl
ux (P
g C
y-1)
Carb
on in
tens
ity
(KgC
/US$
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2006)
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
1.5 Pg C y-1
+7.6 Pg C y-1
Atmosphere45%
4.1 Pg y-1
Land30%
2.8 Pg y-1
Oceans25%
2.2 Pg y-1
Climate Change at 55% Discount
Natural sinks absorb 5 billions tons of CO2 globally every year, or 55% of all anthropogenic carbon emissions.
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Natural Sinks: Large Economic Subsidy
Natural sinks are a huge subsidy to our global economy worth half a trillion Euros annually if an equivalent sink had to be created using other climate mitigation options (based on the cost of carbon in the EU-ETS).
Canadell & Raupach 2008, Science
1. The rate of CO2 emissions.
2. The rate of CO2 uptake and ultimately the total amount of C that can be stored by land and oceans:
– Land: CO2 fertilization effect, soil respiration, N deposition fertilization, forest regrowth, woody encroachment, …
– Oceans: CO2 solubility (temperature, salinity),, ocean currents, stratification, winds, biological activity, acidification, …
Factors that Influence the Airborne Fraction
Canadell et al. 2007, Springer; Gruber et al. 2004, Island Press
% C
O2 E
miss
ions
in
Atm
osph
ere
1960 200019801970 1990
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
2006
Decline in the Efficiency of CO2 Natural Sinks
Fraction of anthropogenic emissions that stay in the atmosphere
Emissions1 tCO2
400Kg stay
Emissions1 tCO2
450Kg stay
Efficiency of Natural Sinks
Land Fraction
Ocean Fraction
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
• Part of the decline is attributed to up to a 30% decrease in the efficiency of the Southern Ocean sink over the last 20 years.
• This sink removes annually 0.7 Pg of anthropogenic carbon.
• The decline is attributed to the strengthening of the winds around Antarctica which enhances ventilation of natural carbon-rich deep waters.
• The strengthening of the winds is attributed to global warming and the ozone hole.
Causes of the Declined in the Efficiency of the Ocean Sink
Le Quéré et al. 2007, Science
Cred
it: N
.Met
zl, A
ugus
t 200
0, o
cean
ogra
phic
crui
se O
ISO
-5
Angert et al. 2005, PNAS; Buermann et al. 2007, PNAS; Ciais et al. 2005, Science
Drought Effects on the Mid-Latitude Carbon Sinks
Summer 1982-1991
Summer 1994-2002/04
NDVI Anomaly 1982-2004[Normalized Difference Vegetation Index]
A number of major droughts in mid-latitudes have contributed to the weakening of the growth rate of terrestrial carbon sinks in these regions.
65% - Increased activity of the global economy
Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
17% - Deterioration of the carbon intensity of the global economy
18% - Decreased efficiency of natural sinks
2000 - 2006: 1.9 ppm y-1
1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1
1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1
1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1
Attribution of Recent Acceleration of Atmospheric CO2
To:• Economic growth• Carbon intensity• Efficiency of natural sinks
• The growth of carbon emissions from fossil fuels has tripled compared to the 1990s and is exceeding the predictions of the highest IPCC emission scenarios.
Conclusions (i)
• Atmospheric CO2 has grown at 1.9 ppm per year (compared to about 1.5 ppm during the previous 30 years)
• The carbon intensity of the world’s economy has stopped decreasing (after 100 years of doing so).
Since 2000:
Conclusions (ii)
• The efficiency of natural sinks has decreased by 10% over the last 50 years (and will continue to do so in the future), implying that the longer we wait to reduce emissions, the larger the cuts needed to stabilize atmospheric CO2.
• All of these changes characterize a carbon cycle that is generating stronger climate forcing and sooner than expected.
• Angert A, Biraud S, Bonfils C, Henning CC, Buermann W, Pinzon J, Tucker CJ, Fung I (2005) PNAS 102:10823-10827.
• Breshears DD, Cobb NS, Richd PM, Price KP, Allen CD (2005) PNAS 42:15144-15148.• Canadell JG, Corinne Le Quéré, Michael R. Raupach, Christopher B. Field, Erik T. Buitehuis,
Philippe Ciais, Thomas J. Conway, NP Gillett, RA Houghton, Gregg Marland (2007) PNAS.• Canadell JG, Pataki D, Gifford R, Houghton RA, Lou Y, Raupach MR, Smith P, Steffen W
(2007) in Terrestrial Ecosystems in a Changing World, eds Canadell JG, Pataki D, Pitelka L (IGBP Series. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg), pp 59-78.
• Ciais P, Reichstein M, Viovy N, Granier A, Ogée, J, V. Allard V, Aubinet M, Buchmann N, Bernhofer Ch, Carrara A, et al. (2005) Nature 437:529-533. Raupach MR, Marland G, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Canadell JG, Klepper G, Field CB, PNAS (2007) 104: 10288-10293.
• Global Forest Resource Assessment (2005) FAO Forestry Paper 147.• Gruber N, Friedlingstein P, Field CB, Valentini R, Heimann M, Richey JF, Romero P, Schulze
E-D, Chen A (2004) in Global Carbon Cycle, integrating human, climate, and the natural world, Field CB, Raupach M (eds). Island Press, Washington, DC., pp 45-76
• Le Quéré C, Rödenbeck C, Buitenhuis ET, Thomas J, Conway TJ, Langenfelds R, Gomez A, Labuschagne C, Ramonet M, Nakazawa T, Metzl N, et al. (2007) Science 316:1735-1738.
• Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2008) Forest management for climate change mitigation. Science 320, 1456-1457, doi: 10.1126/science.1155458.
References
www.globalcarbonproject.org [email protected]