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Transcript of Recent Advances and Future Trends on Ship and Offshore ... JK - EMSHIP Conf... · DHC ULG, Prof....
30/03/2012
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Recent Advances and Future Trends
on Ship and Offshore Structural Design
Prof. Jeom Kee PAIK, Dr. Eng., FRINA, FSNAME
Doctor Honoris Causa of The University of Liège
President of The Ship and Offshore Research Institute
Director of The Lloyd’s Register Educational Trust Research Centre of Excellence
Pusan National University, Korea
In Association with the Insignia of Doctor Honoris Causa of The University of Liège
Thursday 22nd March 2012
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Contents
1. Introduction of Korea, Busan City, and Pusan National University
2. The Ship and Offshore Research Institute at PNU
3. General Trends in Maritime Industry
3.1 Green Shipping
3.2 Development of Deepwaters
3.3 Human Factors Engineering
4. Ship and Offshore Structural Design: Recent Advances and
Future Trends
4.1 Limit States Based Methods
4.2 Reliability Based Methods
4.3 Risk Based Methods
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
- South Korea is the world’s leading (No.1) ship manufacturer and has been consistently ranked at the top in terms of its order book and building quality and capacity. - South Korea accounts for more than 40% of the global market for shipbuilding. - South Korea accounts for more than 70% of the global market for offshore platform construction.
Population = approx. 50million
GNP = 20,000 USD
-Samsung Electronics
-LG
-Hyundai Motors, Kia Motors
-Hyundai Heavy Industries -Daewoo Shipbuilding and Marine Engineering
-Samsung Heavy Industries
-STX Europe
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Metropolitan City of Busan, Korea
-The second largest city in South Korea
-Population = 4 million
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Main Campus of Pusan National University
-Total number of students = 31,000
-Total number of NAOE students = 380(undergraduates)/120(graduates)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
2. The Ship and Offshore Research Institute
at Pusan National University
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Organization of The KOSORI
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Staff (as of March 2012) Research Staff Number Remark
Faculty Member 4
Chair Professor 1 Former Deputy Minister, Ministry of
Science and Technology, Korea
Visiting Professor 1 von Karman Chair Professor, University of
California at Irvine, USA
Research Professor 2
Research Engineer 6
Master 19 Graduate
Student PhD 13
Technician 1
Administrative 3
Total 52
National Advisory Committee Members (as of March 2012)
- Mr. M.S. Kim, Technical Director, Lloyd’s Register Asia
- Mr. J.H. Park, Senior Executive Vice President, Samsung Heavy Industries
- Mr. H.S. Bong, Senor Executive Vice President, Hanjin Heavy Industries
- Mr. T.H. Park, Senior Executive Vice President, STX Offshore and Shipbuilding
- Mr. J.S. Shin, Executive Vice President, DSME
- Mr. J.B. Park, Executive Vice President, HHI (Offshore & Engineering Division)
- Dr. K.B. Kang, Senior Vice President, POSCO
International Advisory Committee Members (as of March 2012)
- Dr. F. Cheng, Head of Strategic Research Group, Lloyd’s Register, UK
- Dr. A.K. Thayamballi, Senior Principal Consultant, Chevron Shipping, USA
- Prof. S.N. Atluri, Chair Professor, University of California at Irvine, USA
- Emeritus Prof. N. Jones, University of Liverpool, UK
- Emeritus Prof. O.F. Hughes, Virginia Tech., USA
- Prof. R.E. Melchers, University of Newcastle, Australia
- Prof. R. Snell, Oxford University, UK
- Prof. Y. Bai, Zhejiang University, China
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Textbooks
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Editor-in-Chief of International Journals
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Editor-in-Chief of UNESCO Encyclopedia
Encyclopedia Of Life Support Systems (EOLSS)
6.177 Ships and Offshore Structures
UNESCO, Paris
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Editorial Board Members of International Journals
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Computer Program
No. Program Usage
1 ANSYS Linear / nonlinear finite element analysis
2 ANSYS CFX CFD simulations
3 LS-DYNA Linear / nonlinear dynamic / impact nonlinear finite element
analysis
4 ALPS Ultimate strength analysis of plates, stiffened panels and hull
girders
5 FLACS CFD simulations for Dispersion and explosions
6 KFX CFD simulations for fires
7 DNV Neptune Risk calculations
8 CAD system Drawing
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Test Facilities (1/7)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Test specimen
(G.L.=50mm, A=500mm2)
Strike car
Damping system
▪ Facility size: 15mx2mx2m
▪ Test model size: 1.5mx1.5mx1.0m
▪ Max. load, speed: 1000kN, 20m/s
▪ Temp.: -170~700oC
▪ Data acquisition: 5M/s, 16ch
Research Facilities – Test Facilities (2/7)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Test Facilities (3/7)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Test Facilities (4/7)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Norway Fire Test
Trondheim, Norway UK
Explosion and Fire Test Spadeadam, UK
USA Explosion and Fire Test
Houston, USA
Korea Explosion and Fire Test
Hadong, Korea
Research Facilities – Test Facilities (5/7)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Explosion/Fire and Subsea Test Facilities (6/7)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Research Facilities – Explosion/Fire and Subsea Test Facilities (7/7)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
3. General Trends in Maritime Industry
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Steel Ship, Rivet,
On-land Construction
Welding, Block Assembly,
Dry-dock Construction
Information Technology,
Design/Process Automation
Functional Requirement-oriented,
Design Formulations
HSE-oriented, Limit States/Risk-based
Design & Engineering
New Products (Climate Change, Arctic, Green Shipping, Renewable Energy, Oil/Gas Developments in Deepwaters)
Ship Ship Ship
Offshore
Ship Offshore Ship
Offshore
World Market Size Ship
Offshore
Trends in Marine Technology and Industry
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
3. General Trends in Maritime Industry
3.1 Green Shipping
3.2 Development of Deepwaters
3.3 Human Factors Engineering
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Global Warming and Climate Change
(Source: NASA Earth Observatory, based on IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (2007))
• Climate change is due to global warming.
• Global warming is due to greenhouse gases produced by
human activities such as fossil fuel burning.
• 70% of greenhouse gases is CO2 from fossil fuel.
• As long as the current CO2 emissions are uncontrolled,
experts forecast that the temperature of Earth can be
increased by more than 2oC until 2050 and subsequently the
sea level can increase up to 10 to 20m.
Greenhouse gas emission
(Source: Wikipedia)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Source Breakdown of CO2 Emissions
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Pollution from Ships to the Environment
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Active Methods for Reduction of CO2 Emissions from Ships
Measure Method How To Reduction(%)
Active Fuel source Natural gas
Nuclear
Others, e.g., solar, wind, hydrogen
20-30%
Structural material New high tensile steel material 2-5%
Structural design Structural optimization 2-5%
Hull form design Hull form optimization
Bulbous bow optimization
2-3%
Propeller design High efficiency propeller 2-3%
Device Shaft generator 1%
Pre-swirl stator (PSS) 3-6%
Water heat recovery system (WHRS) 3-4%
Air cavity system, micro bubble 7-10%
SOx/NOx reduction device
Operation Trim operation 3-4%
Optimum weather routing 4-5%
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
NOx/SOx emission control (Protect the environment)
Anti-pirate System (To avoid and delay pirate attacks)
No Sunken
Deck
Multi Tracking
CCTV
at bridge wings
Closed
Deckhouse
High
Performance
Additional Radar
Fast Warning & Rescue
Signal Release
RADAR
SSAS or VHF
No Sunken
Deck
Multi Tracking
CCTV
at bridge wings
Closed
Deckhouse
High
Performance
Additional Radar
Fast Warning & Rescue
Signal Release
RADAR
SSAS or VHF
Waste Heat Recovery System (Fuel oil saving 2.8% )
Water Pollution Prevention(BWTS) (Protect the environment)
Air-Bubble Pre-swirl Stator (Power saving 5%)
Air Bubble PSS
NOx/SOx
WHRS BWTS VOC Reduction
Anti-pirate
VOC Reduction system (Protect the environment)
CARGO MAIN LINES
VAPOR COLLECTING MAIN LINE
CARGO LOADING DROP LINES
CARGO LOADING/SUCTION MAIN LINES
FLOWMETER &
GAS ANALYZER
ANTI-CAVITATION
VALVES LOCATION
STRIPPING MAIN LINES
CARGO LIQUID
CROSSOVER
VAPOR EMISSION
CROSSOVER
CARGO MANIFOLDCARGO MAIN LINES
VAPOR COLLECTING MAIN LINE
CARGO LOADING DROP LINES
CARGO LOADING/SUCTION MAIN LINES
FLOWMETER &
GAS ANALYZER
ANTI-CAVITATION
VALVES LOCATION
STRIPPING MAIN LINES
CARGO LIQUID
CROSSOVER
VAPOR EMISSION
CROSSOVER
CARGO MANIFOLD
MEGI
ME-GI Engine
No.1 HP Pump
No.2 BOG CompressorNG HP Cooler
Recondenser
HP Vaporizer
No.1 BOG CompressorGlycol heating system
No.2 HP Pump
VOC = volatile organic compound
Active Methods for Reduction of CO2 Emissions from Ships
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Passive Methods for Reduction of CO2 Emissions
Measure Method How To
Passive Carbon treatment Carbon capture
Carbon transportation via ship or pipeline
Carbon storage
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Subsea Storage
Barge
Concept Design of CCS with CO2 Carriers
Source: Offshore Process Eng. Lab, KAIST, Korea
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
3. General Trends in Maritime Industry
3.1 Green Shipping
3.2 Development of Deepwaters
3.3 Human Factors Engineering
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Demand of Oil in China and United States
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Global Oil Supplies
Peak Oil 예상신규 유전 발견 시우측 이동
심해 극지미탐사 유전
액화천연가스 등
•Fields under development (FUD)•Fields under appraisal (FUA)•Fields in production (FIP)
27.3 %
31.8 %
18.2 %
22.7 %Natural gas
New reservoirs
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Development of Energy Sources in Deepwaters • The deep sea is a treasure house of energy resources such as
oil, natural gas, gas hydrate, minerals (rare materials).
• Renewable energy sources such as wind energy and current energy are available.
• World market size is growing with more than 500billion US$ in 2030.
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Offshore Production Systems
Fixed type in shallow waters Floating type in deep waters
Ship-shaped offshore unit, Semi-sub, Spar, TLP
Pipeline infrastructure Multiple functions such as
production, storage and offloading
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
3. General Trends in Maritime Industry
3.1 Green Shipping
3.2 Development of Deepwaters
3.3 Human Factors Engineering
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Most of accidents are the result of a long chain of
human error, with such error responsible for
- 65% of all airline accidents,
- 80% of all maritime casualties,
- 90% of all automobile accidents, and
- 90% of all nuclear facility emergencies.
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Human error results from ignoring human factors and
ergonomics.
Ignorance of human factors is either the root cause of
or a major contributing factor to many maritime accidents.
Ignorance of engineering factors is primarily due to
a lack of knowledge and guidance at the design, building
and operation stages.
Accidents – Result of a Long Chain of Human Error
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Importance of Human Error Minimization to Protect Human Health and
the Environment and Ensure Safety
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Design Formula
Experimental Investigation
Past Experience First Principles
Deterministic Probabilistic
Mathematical Algorithm
21 1
!lim
! !
m n
xi j
n
r n rx x
Limit States/Risk Allowable Stress
Engineering
Various Types of Phenomena
Traditional Future
Paradigm Change in Engineering and Design
Nonlinear structural
consequences
(Geometric & material
nonlinearities)
Initial
imperfections
(Initial distortion/
residual stress/
softening)
Abnormal wave/
wind/current
(Freak/rogue)
Dynamic
pressure
(Sloshing/slamming/
green water)
Low
temperature
(Arctic operations)
Cryogenic
conditions
(LNG cargo)
Elevated
temperature
(Fire)
Blast load
(Explosion)
Impact load
(Collision/grounding/
dropped object)
Age-related
degradation
(Corrosion/fatigue
cracking/denting)
Ultra-high
pressure
(Subsea)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
HSE & E – Health, Safety, Environment & Ergonomics
IACS CSR/H-CSR
Advanced
Technologies
First-Principles-Based Direct Methods
Limit States-Based Methods
Risk-Based Methods
IMO GBS
ISO ISO 18072
International Rules and Standards
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Over the last decade, the likelihood and consequences
of marine casualties have certainly declined, in part due
to technological improvements.
However, the public’s growing concerns and
intolerance for safety, health and environmental risk
suggest that more has to be done going forward.
Because the majority of marine casualties is related to
human error and human factors, human factors
engineering will play a central role to achieve substantive
technological improvements and subsequently to prevent
accidents.
Human Factors Engineering
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
April 2012 Issue of Marine Technology, SNAME
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
4. Ship and Offshore Structural Design:
Recent Advances and Future Trends
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Ocean Environmental Phenomena in Ships and Offshore Installations
Nonlinear structural
consequences
(Geometric & material
nonlinearities)
Initial
imperfections
(Initial distortion/
residual stress/
softening)
Abnormal wave/
wind/current
(Freak/rogue)
Dynamic
pressure
(Sloshing/slamming/
green water)
Low
temperature
(Arctic operations)
Cryogenic
conditions
(LNG cargo)
Elevated
temperature
(Fire)
Blast load
(Explosion)
Impact load
(Collision/grounding/
dropped object)
Age-related
degradation
(Corrosion/fatigue
cracking/denting)
Ultra-high
pressure
(Subsea)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Nonlinear Structural Consequences = function of (a,b,c,d,e,f,g,h)
where,
a = geometric properties
b = material properties
c = fabrication related initial imperfections
d = load types/components (quasi-static)
e = strain rate effect associated with dynamic/impact load profiles due to
sloshing/slamming/green water, explosion, collision, grounding
f = effect of temperatures, e.g. low (Arctic), cryogenic (LNG) and elevated (fire)
g = age-related degradation, e.g. corrosion, fatigue crack, denting
Basis of Acceptance Criteria:
• Limit States: Extreme phenomena
• Reliability
• Risk: Accidental phenomena, e.g., explosion, fire
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Cd > Dd
Reliability = = 1-Pf o
Risk ALARP
where,
Cd = Design capacity
Dd = Design demand
Pf = Probability of failure
= Reliability index
o = Target reliability index
ALARP = As low as reasonably practicable
Design Criteria
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
4. Ship and Offshore Structural Design:
Recent Advances and Future Trends
4.1 Limit States Based Methods
Ultimate limit states (ULS)
Serviceability limit states (SLS)
Fatigue limit states (FLS)
Accidental limit states (ALS)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Modeling of Structure & Loads
Structural Response Analysis
Calculate Load Effects, Q
Limit State Analysis
Calculate Limit Values
of Load Effects, QL
Evaluation
(A) Formulate constraints (B) Evaluate adequacy
γ1 γ2 γ3 Q ≤QL Constraints satisfied?
Objective achieved?
Optimization Objective
RationallyRationally--based structural designbased structural design(Optimum structural design procedure based on ultimate limit sta(Optimum structural design procedure based on ultimate limit state)te)
Weight or building cost
Limit States Based Structural Design Optimization
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Mode I – overall collapse
Mode II – plate-induced collapse
Mode III – stiffener-induced collapse by beam-column
type collapse
Mode V – stiffener-induced collapse
by tripping
Mode IV – stiffener-induced collapse
by web buckling
Mode VI: Gross yielding
Ultimate Strength of Stiffened Panels: 6 Types of Collapse Modes
σu = min.(σuI, σu
II, σuIII, σu
IV, σuV, σu
VI)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
0xdA
1
1
n
xi i i
iu n
xi i
i
a z
g
a
1
nv
u xi i i u
i
M a z g
Sagging Hogging
Modified Paik-Mansour Formula for Hull Collapse Strength Calculation
[Ref.] J.K. Paik, D.K. Kim, D.H. Park, H.B. Kim, A.E. Mansour and J.B. Caldwell, Modified Paik-Mansour formula for ultimate strength calculations
of ship hulls, accepted for publication in Ships and Offshore Structures, 2012.
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Method NLFEM ISUM/Smith Method ISFEM
(ALPS/HULL)
Geometric
modeling
Finite element model
Plate-stiffener combination
model
Plate-stiffener separation
model
Formulation
technique
Numerical formulation
[D]: Numerical formulation
Closed form formulation
Numerical formulation
[D]: Closed-form solution
Computational
cost Expensive Cheap Cheap
Feature (1) 2 and 3-dimensional 2-dimensional 2 and 3-dimensional
Feature (2) Can deal with interaction
between local and global
failures
Can not deal with interaction
between local and global
failures
Can deal with interaction
between local and global
failures
[ ] [ ][ ] volTB D B d Y
1 1
1 1
1 1
edge function
for
for
for
[ ] [ ][ ] volTB D B d
Methods for Progressive Hull Collapse Analysis
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
(a) The entire hull model
(d) The one cargo hold model
(b) The three cargo hold model
(c) The two cargo hold model
(a) The entire hull model
(d) The one cargo hold model
(b) The three cargo hold model
(c) The two cargo hold model
(a) The entire hull model
(d) The one cargo hold model
(b) The three cargo hold model
(c) The two cargo hold model
(a) The entire hull model
(d) The one cargo hold model
(b) The three cargo hold model
(c) The two cargo hold model
(f) The one bay sliced hull model
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans. frame
(e) The two bay sliced hull model
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans. frame
(f) The one bay sliced hull model
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans. frame
(e) The two bay sliced hull model
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans.
bulkhead
Trans. frame
(a) The entire hull model
(b) The three cargo hold model
(c) The two cargo hold model
(d) The one cargo hold model
(e) The two-bay sliced hull cross-section model
(f) The one-bay sliced hull cross-section model
Methods for Progressive Hull Collapse Analysis
- Extent of Analysis
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
ALPS/ULSAP (Analysis of Large Plated Structures / Ultimate Limit State Assessment Program), developed by Prof. J.K.Paik, Pusan National University
Theory of the ALPS/ULSAP Method
Ship Structural Analysis
and Design (2010)
Hughes & Paik
Ultimate Limit State Design of
Steel-Plated Structures (2003)
Paik & Thayamballi
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
4. Ship and Offshore Structural Design:
Recent Advances and Future Trends
4.2 Reliability Based Methods
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Reliability = = 1-Pf o
Reliability Based Design Criteria
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Tanker f irst yield 20 years
Tanker deck buckling 1 year
Tanker deck buckling 20 years
Tanker hull girder 1 year
Tanker hull girder 20 years
FPS deck buckling 1 year
FPS deck buckling 20 years
FPS hull girder 1 year
FPS hull girder 20 years
Year of publication
Variation of calculated reliability indices for tankers and FPSs
[Ref.] J.K. Paik and P.A. Frieze, Ship Structural Safety and Reliability, Progress of Structural Engineering and Materials, Vol.3, 2001, pp.198-210.
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Reliability = = 1-Pf o
Reliability Based Design Criteria
Trend f calculated reliability indices for tankers and FPSs
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2000
Tanker hull girders 1 year
FPS hull girders 1 year
FPS hull girders 20 years
Year of publication
[Ref.] J.K. Paik and P.A. Frieze, Ship Structural Safety and Reliability, Progress of Structural Engineering and Materials, Vol.3, 2001, pp.198-210.
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
4. Ship and Offshore Structural Design:
Recent Advances and Future Trends
4.3 Risk Based Methods
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Hazard
identification (Step1)
Risk
assessment (Step2)
Decision making
recommendations (Step5)
Risk control options
(Step3)
Cost benefit assessment
(Step4)
Risk Based Design Method (Formal Safety Assessment)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
i i
i
R F C
• Asset risk
Damage to structures and equipment
Duration of production delay (downtime)
• Environmental risk
Amount of oil that spills out of the offshore installation
• Personnel risk
Loss of life
What is Risk? How to Manage Risk?
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
FPSO for Oil and Natural Gas Production
Vessel (hull), topsides (process facility), mooring, umbilicals/risers/flowlines, subsea, and export system
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Oil/Gas Leak Resulting in Explosion and Fire
Source: HSE
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
6th July 1988, UK
167 people killed
Property damage of 1.4billion US$
Risk based engineering became mandatory since the Pipe Alpha
accident
Pipe Alpha Accident
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
20th April 2010, Gulf of Mexico
11 people killed, 17 people wounded
Environmental damage of approx. 30 billion US$
Deepwater Horizon Accident
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Hydrocarbons can explode through ignition when combined with
an oxidiser (usually air). Thus, when the temperature rises to the point
at which hydrocarbon molecules react spontaneously to an oxidiser,
combustion takes place. This hydrocarbon explosion causes a blast
and a rapid increase in overpressure.
Fire is a combustible vapour or gas that combines with an oxidiser
In a combustion process that is manifested by the evolution of light,
heat, and flame.
The impact of overpressure from explosions and that of elevated
temperature from fire are the primary concern in terms of the actions
That result from hazards within the risk assessment and management
framework.
Hydrocarbon Explosions and Fires
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Gas burns
Volume
increases
Gas flow
increases
Turbulence
Gas expands
Larger volume
pushes unburnt
gas ahead Unburnt gas pushed
around obstacles
Flame front wrinkled,
burning surface greater,
increased mixing,
faster burning
BLAST
CONGESTION? CONFINEMENT?
Mechanism of Gas Explosion – Depending on Topology and Geometry
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Factors Affecting Explosions and Fires
· Wind direction
· Wind speed
· Leak rate
· Leak direction
· Leak duration
· Leak position (x)
· Leak position (y)
· Leak position (z)
· Type of oil or gas (molecules)
· Concentration ratio
· Temperature of oil or gas
(LNG Cryogenic -163 degree C)
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Quantitative Gas Explosion Risk Assessment and Management (1/2)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Selection of credible scenarios
involving PDF parameters of
leak and environment conditions
Selection of credible scenarios
involving PDF parameters of
gas cloud condition
Ex
plo
sio
n f
req
uen
cy o
f ex
cced
an
ce
(per
FP
SO
yea
r)
Overpressure (MPa)
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01Large cylindrical vessels (Point 171 )
CAD model CFD model
Gas dispersion analysis
Explosion CFD simulation Design loads with exceedance curve Nonlinear consequence analysis under explosion
EFEF JIP Procedure for Explosion Risk Assessment and Management (2/2)
Latin hypercube sampling technique
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
EFEF JIP Fire Risk Assessment and Management (1/2)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Selection of credible scenarios
involving PDF parameters of
leak and environment conditions
EFEF JIP Procedure for Fire Risk Assessment and Management (2/2)
CAD model CFD model
Fire CFD simulation Design loads with exceedance curve
Nonlinear consequence
analysis under fire Temperature(K)
Exce
edan
cefi
re f
req
uen
cy(p
erF
PS
O y
ear)
200 400 600 800 1000 1200
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
Mean temperature
(Point20 and Point31)
Mean temperature
(Point41 and Point52)
Latin hypercube sampling technique
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Applied Example: VLCC Class FPSO Topsides
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Effect of Gas Cloud Volume on Maximum Overpressure – Comparison between EFEF JIP
and Existing FPSO Practices
Ov
erp
ress
ure
(M
Pa)
Equivalent volume (m3)
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
FPSO A
FPSO B
EFEF JIP
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Exp
losi
on
fre
qu
ency
of
exce
edan
ce
(per
FP
SO
yea
r)
Overpressure (MPa)
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12
0.00001
0.0001
0.001
0.01
Top process deck(Point 226 & 274)
Solid process deck(Point 76 & 124)
Above the middle process deck(Point 161)
Process decks
Design Explosion Loads with Exceedance Curves
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14
0
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0. 10
0.12
0.14
Ris
k a
ccep
ted
loa
dF
PS
OC
, D
(MP
a)
Risk accepted loadEFEF JIP (MPa)
EFEF JIP vs. FPSO C
EFEF JIP vs. FPSO D
Design Explosion Loads – Comparison between EFEF JIP and Existing FPSO Practices
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu Temperature(K)
Ex
ceed
an
cefi
re f
req
uen
cy(p
erF
PS
O y
ear)
280 300 320 340 360 380
0.0001
0.001
0.01
0.1
0.00001
Separation train 2
(Point 77)
Oil inlet
(Point 96)
Gas compressor
(Point 75)
Surrounding separation train1
Design Fire Loads with Exceedance Curves
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Nonlinear Structural Consequence Analysis – Escape Route
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
CFD Explosion Simulations
(barg)
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Gas Explosion Tests with or without Water Sprays (1/2) - Importance of Risk Management
Source: © The Steel Construction Institute, Fire and Blast Information Group
Without water sprays With water sprays
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
0.0
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
700100 200 300 400 500 600
Time (ms)
TNO PI-10, Test 10, LDN Nozzles
TNO PI-10, Test 11, MV57 Nozzles
TNO PI-10, Test 12, No Deluge
Source: © The Steel Construction Institute, Fire and Blast Information Group
Gas Explosion Tests with or without Water Sprays (2/2) - Importance of Risk Management
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Trends in Risk Assessment
Qualitative Quantitative
Deterministic Probabilistic
Past Experience Simulation
Specific Scenarios All Possible Scenarios
Experiment
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DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Over the last decade, the likelihood and consequences of
marine casualties have certainly declined, in part due to
technological improvements.
However, accidents continue to occur while ships and offshore
installations are in service, regardless of the significant efforts
exerted toward eliminating them.
Furthermore, the public’s growing concerns and intolerance for
safety, health and environmental risk suggest that more has to be
done going forward.
The best way of achieving this goal is to reduce human error by
better understanding ocean environmental phenomena and then
apply human factor and ergonomic best practices to vessel design,
engineering, construction, and operation.
Human Factors Engineering
DHC ULG, Prof. J.K. Paik, 22nd March 2012 www.EMSHIP.eu
Thanks to
- Ecole Centrale de Nantes (ECN) to welcome this conference
- EMSHIP (European ERASMUS MUNDUS), coordinated by
the University of Liège and ECN
In Association with the Insignia of Doctor Honoris Causa of The University of Liège
Thursday 22nd March 2012