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2006
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
THE WORLD BANK GROUP WASHINGTON, D.C.
Rural Access Index: A Key Development Indicator
Peter Roberts Shyam KC Cordula Rastogi
TRANSPORT SECTOR BOARD
TRANSPORT PAPERS TP-10
MARCH 2006
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THE WORLD BANK GROUP WASHINGTON, D.C.
Rural Access Index: A Key Development Indicator
Peter Roberts Shyam KC Cordula Rastogi
TRANSPORT SECTOR BOARD
TRANSPORT PAPERS TP-10
MARCH 2006
36006Pu
blic
Dis
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Auth
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THE WORLD BANK GROUP WASHINGTON, D.C.
Rural Access Index: A Key Development Indicator
Peter Roberts Shyam KC Cordula Rastogi
TRANSPORT SECTOR BOARD
TRANSPORT PAPERS TP-10
MARCH 2006
36006
Publ
ic D
iscl
osur
e Au
thor
ized
Publ
ic D
iscl
osur
e Au
thor
ized
Publ
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Publ
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DefinitionoftheRAI
‘RuralAccessIndex’isthepercentageofruralpeoplewholivewithin2km(typicallyequivalenttoawalkof20minutes)ofanall-seasonroadasaproportionofthetotalruralpopulation.
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
NotebyPeterRobertsDatedSeptember2005
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DefinitionoftheRAI(continued)
An“all-season-road”isaroadthatismotorableallyearroundbytheprevailingmeansofruraltransport*…Predictableinterruptionsofshortdurationduringinclementweather(egheavyrainfall)areaccepted...*In2005assumedtobe‘apick-uporatruckwhichdoes
nothavefour-wheel-drive’. ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
NotebyPeterRobertsDatedSeptember2005
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TheRuralAccessIndex(RAI)
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
20to30minuteswal
k
=approx2km
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MeasurementofRAITwomainapproaches:
(a) Householdsurveysthatincludeinformationaboutaccesstotransport.
(b) Mapdatatodeterminehowmanypeoplelivewithinthespecifiedcatchmentsoftheroadnetwork.
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
NotebyPeterRobertsDatedSeptember2005
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RequirementforRAIAdoptedfortheResultsMeasurementSystem(RMS)ofIDA-14.“…TheIndexwasdevelopedinresponsetotheconsensusledbyborrowersthatitidentifiesanimportantpriorityforpovertyreductionstrategiesinviewoftheestablishedlinksbetweenphysicalisolationandpoverty...”
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
2006TransportPaper
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“2006”RAIdata
64countries-32IDAand32non-IDA
26countriesbasedon5typesofhouseholdsurveys10countriesbasedonGISanalysis22countriesestimatedusingmodellingtechniques*
*includingUgandaandZambia
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InstitutionalisationoftheRAI2006-Intendedtoincludeasuitablequestioninregularhouseholdsurveys(egevery3years)
Straightforwardprocessingofsurveydata(“…onedayofexperiencedstatisticalinput…”)
àWhydidn’tthishappen?
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SDGTarget9.1Developquality,reliable,sustainableandresilientinfrastructure,includingregionalandtrans-borderinfrastructure,tosupporteconomicdevelopmentandhumanwell-being,withafocusonaffordableandequitableaccessforall.
SDGIndicator9.1.1Proportionoftheruralpopulationwholivewithin2kmofanall-seasonroad.
WorldBankisthe“custodian”ofSDGIndicator9.1.1
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UNInter-agencyandExpertGrouponSDGIndicators(IAEG-SDGs)
§ InternationallyrepresentativegroupwithmembersfromNationalStatisticalOffices(NSOs).
§ Recommendedtheinitial2016listofSDGindicators.
§ RecommendsstatusofeachIndicator(TierI,IIorIII).
§ IsreviewingthelistofIndicatorsandin2020willrecommendanyadditions,deletions,refinementsoradjustmentsneeded(reviewedagainin2025).
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SDGIndicator“Tier”system(Note:Abbreviated)
TierI: Regularlyproducedforatleast50%ofcountries.
TierII:Conceptuallyclear,establishedmethodology,butnotregularlyproduced.
TierIII:Nointernationallyestablishedmethodologyorstandards,buttheyarebeingdeveloped.
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CurrentratingofSDGIndicator9.1.1,theRAI
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2015/2016UKAidfunding,throughReCAP,toupdatemethodofmeasuringtheRAIPilotmeasurementsin8ReCAPcountriesSupportmovingSDGIndicator9.1.1toTierII/TierI
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Proposedmethodology:Conceptuallythesame,butmeasureddifferentlyusingnewdataandtechnologies
• Globaldefinition:– Shareoftheruralpopulationwholivewithin2kmofan“all-season”≈“goodorfair”road
• Flexibility,dependingon:– Whatdatadowehaveinournormaloperations?– Whatdatacanweupdateregularly,asweimplementroadworks?
• Otherissues:– Proximitytoroadnetworkormarketetc.?– 2kmor5kmor25minutes?– Whatroads?
• Seethemethodologyreport
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Sustainability
Consistency
Simplicity
Operational relevance
http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/367391472117815229/Measuring-rural-access-using-new-technologies
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Takingadvantageofavailable(andsustainable)spatialdata,RAIiscalculatedbyspatialsoftware
ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
• Wheredopeoplelive?– Globalpopulationdataareavailable
• Wheredoestheroadnetworkexist?– Georeferencedroadnetwork(government-owned,opendata)
• Inwhatcondition?– Dataexist,thoughoftenfragmented– Relevantissues:Howtomaintainroadassetmanagementsystem?
• Overlappingtheabove,theRAIisestimatedbyspatialsoftware
Comparisonof2006and2016results
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RAI2006 RAI2016 Approximatemodellingmethods
Issomeoftheruralroadnetworkmissing?
Actually17%in2006report-Extensiveruralroadimprovementssince
DetailedGIS
mappingofruralroads
All-seasonnetworkdifficulttodefineinmountainareas
Isthedefinitionoftheboundarybetweenurbanandruralareasconsistentbetweencountries?
RuralroadsinTanzaniaworsethanin2006?
Notin2006report
ReCAPRAIStatusReview§ ConcernsraisedbyReCAPmembercountries;technicaldifferencesbetweennewmethodologyandoriginalmethodology,anddifferencesinresults.
§ RequirementidentifiedforstatusreviewbyReCAPtodetermineappropriatewayforward–3TaskGroups:
TG1:AstatusreviewandwayforwardrecommendationTG2:ConsolidationandRevisionTG3:ApplicationinReCAPcountries
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ReCAPRAIStatusReview-method§ Literaturereview&consultationwithspecialists
§ MeetingsatWorldBank
§ ConsultationswithAfDB,ADB,IDB
§ CountryvisitsEthiopia,Uganda,Nepal,Bangladesh(roadsauthorities/departments&statisticaloffices)
§ WiderconsultationthroughReCAPmailinglist
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DiscussionsatWorldBank§ Backgroundtothedevelopmentof2016RAImeasurements.Measurementsformorecountrieshavenowbeenmade.
§ SDGIndicatordefinitionscanonlybechangedin2020or2025.Hence,leaveIndicator9.1.1unchanged;bettertoaddanadditional,new,SDGIndicatoriftheRAIdoesnottrulyreflectruralaccessissues.
§ AseparateinitiativeatWorldBankhasestimatedtheRAIinover100countriesusingopendatasources.
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RegionaldevelopmentbanksAfricanDevelopmentBank
AsianDevelopmentBank
Inter-AmericanDevelopmentBank
§ RAIusedasaprojectlevelimpactindicatoron26projects.
§ ProjectsincludestrengtheningthecapacityoftheNSOtomeasuretheRAI.
§ Ruralprojectsviewedfromperspectiveofsupportingagriculturalproduction.
§ StatisticspriorityisonTierIandIISDGIndicators.
§ LackofsuitabledatatomeasureRAI.§ Measureimprovementsinaccessto
healthcentres,schoolsetcinstead.
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Countryvisits-AfricaEthiopiaUganda
§ Householdsurveymethodsusedfor10yearstomonitorprogresswithruralroadsprogramme.
§ GISmethodsbeingusedtomeasureaveragewalkingtimetoaroad.
§ RAImeasurementsusedtomeasureimpactofruralroadsprogramme
§ RAIisnotused.§ Ruralroadmappingincomplete.§ BureauofStatisticssurveyevery4yearsincludes
assessmentofdistancetoroad,whetherroadisopenallyearround,anddistancetopublictransport.
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Countryvisits-AsiaNepal
Bangladesh
§ Recentlychangeto753urbanandruralmunicipalities.Workingtoachieveroadaccesstoeverymunicipality–Localplans&GISdata.
§ Someroadsclosedintherainyseason,buthealthcentres&schoolsbeyondclosures,andcropsmovedwhenroadsre-opened.
§ ComprehensiveGISofallruralroads.§ SpreadsheetmethodofcalculatingRAI.§ Highlevelofruralaccess(RAI=84%)§ Onlypavedroadsareall-seasonReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig 27
NationalStatisticalOffices§ TheNationalStatisticalOffices(NSOs)werevisitedaspartofallfourcountryvisits.
§ AllNSOswerehelpful.SomealreadyhadabrieftocoordinatethemeasurementofSDGIndicators.
§ NotethattheSDGIndicatorsareaboutstatistics,notengineering!
§ SeveralcountrieshadcarriedoutrecenthouseholdsurveyswhichcouldhaveincludedanRAIquestion.
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Widerconsultation§ TheRAIisnotaverygoodindicator,butitisbetterthanno
indicatoratall.
§ Traveltimewalkingtoaroadisabettermeasurethandistance,differenttypesofterrainhaveamajoreffect.
§ Consideranintegratedapproachtoruraltransport,combiningnon-motorisedandintermediatetransportalongtrailsandpathswithmotorisedtransportusingruralroads.
§ Whenroadsdeterioratesothatbusservicescannotoperate,motorcyclesandthree-wheelersprovideanalternative.
§ Alsoconsiderthereliabilityofthetransportservicesavailable,forexampletravelopportunities/day.
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Financingofinfrastructure&maintenance§ WhatlevelofRAIcan
beachievedwithinrealisticinfrastructurespending?
§ WhatlevelofRAIcanbesustainedbyfutureroadmaintenancefinance?
§ See2008AICDanalysis&recentMyanmarstudy.
§ MaximumachievableRAIiscountryspecific.ReCAPRAIStatusReview-SuM4AllRAWG23May2018Leipzig
INVESTING IN TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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Urban connectivity. Sub-SaharanAfrica’s cities have strikinglyunderdeveloped urban networks,reaching only about 128 meters of roadper thousand residents compared to700 meters per thousand in the low-income countries of the developingworld. Urban connectivity is based onthe concept of ready access to a one-lane paved road capable of supportingyear-round access by a bus service orequivalent motorized vehicle, such asan ambulance or a fire engine.
Knowing the population and areaof each of about 140 cities in Sub-Saharan Africa, we were able to estimate the paved road length that would be necessary to ensure that noresident had to walk more than a specified distance to a paved road that could sustain a bus route, andachieve a minimum length of paved road per urban resident. We added to that distance a grid of roads of ahigher standard that would serve as radial and principal roads. In doing so, we took into account projectedgrowth in the urban population up to the year 2015.
Different levels of ambition
For each of these dimensions of connectivity, two levels of ambition are considered.
Base (or ideal) scenario. The base scenario assumes that all regional and national connectivitystandards will be met using paved roads, of at least 2-lanes for regional and at least 1-lane for nationalconnectivity. The RAI will be 75 percent, achieved through the use of single-surface-treatment roads.Urban connectivity aims for a target of 500 meters walking distance to an all-season road, met usingasphalt roads and at least 300m of paved road per 1,000 urban residents.
Pragmatic scenario. In recognition that the base scenario may prove to be prohibitively costly forsome countries, an alternative pragmatic scenario was also considered. The pragmatic scenario aims tomeet a similar degree of regional and national connectivity at a lower cost, essentially by reducing thestandards of infrastructure (for example, by substituting a single-surface-treatment road for an asphaltroad) and by lowering the target condition (for example, maintaining infrastructure to at least faircondition rather than to good condition). The pragmatic scenario also reduces the level of ambition forrural and urban connectivity. The RAI target drops from 75 percent to 50 percent, and it may be met usingall-weather gravel roads rather than single-surface-treatment roads. The urban accessibility target dropsfrom 500 meters to 1,000 meters maximum walking distance to an all-season paved road capable ofsupporting a bus service, and at least 150 meters of paved road per 1,000 urban residents. Both thesecriteria would be met using an all weather gravel road rather than a paved road.
Figure A Length of network needed to reach different levels of theRural Accessibility Index
R2 = 0.97
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
- 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600
Thousands of kilometers of all season road needed
Rur
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Inde
xRA
I
Thousandkmof“all-season”road
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EffectofuseofmotorcyclesonRAI§ Extensiveuseofmotorcyclesinsomecountries.
§ Motorcyclescanaccessareasthatlargervehiclescannot.
§ RecentLiberiastudyhighlightsextensiveuseofmotorcyclesforaccesstohealthcare,educationetc.
àAllowthemeasurementofanadditional,extra,‘countryRAI’value,forexamplethedifferencethatconsideringmotorcycleswouldmake.
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MovingfromSDGIndicatorTierIIItoTierII
§ Needawelldefinedandwidelyaccepted(egbyregionaldevelopmentbanks)methodology.
§ Needmeasurementsforasignificantnumberofcountries(20to40?),andaclearplanforbothmanymorecountrymeasurementsandhowallcountrymeasurementswillberepeatedinthefuture.
§ NeedtoinvolveNSOs(asrequiredbyIAEG-SDGs).
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Alternativemethodsofmeasurement§ TheInternationalRoughnessIndex(IRI)ismeasuredbymanydifferentmethods.
§ Similarly,thereisonlyoneactualvalueoftheRuralAccessIndex(RAI)inacountry,howeveritismeasured.
§ ToachieveasignificantinternationalcoverageofRAImeasurementsasrapidlyaspossible,theRAImeasurementmethodologyshouldallowtheuseofalternativemeasurementmethods.
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Accuracy§ Theaccuracyofeachdatasetneedstobeassessedandpublished.
§ Considertheaccuracyofeachdatasource,hencecalculateoveralllikelyaccuracy,andpossibleerror.
§ Whendifferentmethodsgivedifferentresults,theyaremeasuringthesamething(RAI),sotheaccuracyrangesshouldoverlapiftheassessmentsarecorrect.
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Metho
dA-
Metho
dB
RAI
overlap
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ActualRAI
possibleerrorranges
Correctionfactors?§ Insomecases,theremaybeaknownsystematicerror,forexamplesomeruralroadsaremissing.
§ Whereaknownerrorexists,forexampletheruralroadnetworkisincomplete,estimateandapplyacorrectionfactor.
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Stan
dardM
etho
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RAI
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MeasuredvalueofRAI
correctionfactorforknown
systematicerror
calculatedvalue
NationallyAppropriateActions?SuggestedindiscussionmeetingatADB:
§ Learnfromclimatechange’NationallyAppropriateMitigationActions’(NAMA).
§ Agreeruralaccessibilityactionsneededspecifictoacountry(egbasedonSuM4Allrecommendations?)
§ Agreeamethodofmonitoringprogresstowardsachievingtheseactions.
§ àMonitorprogress.CouldthisbeanSDGIndicator?
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(1)RAIDatabase§ DevelopadatabaseofallUNcountries.
§ DetailsofwhenSDGIndicator9.1.1(theRAI)isexpectedtobemeasured,andtheagencyleadingthismeasurement.
§ IncludedetailsofexistingmeasurementsoftheRAI.
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
(2)RAIMeasurementMethodologyGuidelines
§ Allowalternativemethodsofmeasurement.
§ Accuracymustbeverified,preferablybyNSO.
§ InadditiontothestandardmeasurementoftheRAI,allowanadditionalcountryvaluetobecalculated,forexampleincludingmotorcycles.
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
OverviewofRAIMeasurementMethodology
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CostDatasourcesTimescaleRepeatability
Statisticalmethod-Householdsurvey
Wholecountrymethod
-GISanalysis-Spreadsheetanalysis
VerificationbyNSO
ReviewandconsolidationbyWorldBank
Regionalsupportfromregionaldevelopmentbanks&
UNstatisticsspecialists
RAIMeasurementGuidelines
(3)RAIWebpage
§ AccesstoRAIDatabaseandGuidelines
§ Knowledgeexchange
§ Rolesoforganisationsandcontactpoints
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
§ Decideactionsneeded,financing,&dates
§ TargetNovember2018
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(4)ScheduletomoveSDGIndicator9.1.1toTierII
RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
(5)DevelopalternativeSDGIndicator(s)forruralaccess
§ Betterreflectcontemporaryruralaccessissues.§ Addressaccesstofacilitiesandprovisionoftransportservices.
§ WorkwithSuM4AllRAWG–for2020SDGreview§ Possiblealternativeapproachoffirstassessingthequalityofthenationalplanforruralaccess,andthenmeasuringprogresstowardsachievingit.
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
(6)Furtherresearch
§ Consultationwithadditionalorganisations.
§ ComparativestudiesbetweendifferentmethodsofmeasuringtheRAI.
§ Potentialuseofsmartphonedata.
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG2
ApplicationinReCAPCountries§ SupportmeasurementoftheRAIinselectedReCAPcountries.
§ RegionalcoordinationofRAImeasurementbyregionaldevelopmentbanks.
§ DeterminethemaximumsustainableleveloftheRAIthatcouldbeachievedineachcountry.
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RECOMMENDATIONS-ReCAPTG3