Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
-
Upload
best-tech-videos -
Category
Documents
-
view
214 -
download
0
Transcript of Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
![Page 1: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 1/23
Real Optionsin a nutshell
Olav MaassenQNH
Chris MattsAccellinnova
© alisdair
![Page 2: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 2/23
Real Options:
And how do they improve your life?
![Page 3: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 3/23
The Game
© jimmyrog
© fatal Cleopatra
![Page 4: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 4/23
Risk
Time
Agile
© thelastminute
Source: Kevin Tate, Alias Software
Risk
Time
Waterfall
© - Woo -
![Page 5: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 5/23
An Arbitrage(Free Money)
© wilhei55
© moonpix7
![Page 6: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 6/23
Optionseverywhere
© Justin Russell
© tvol
![Page 7: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 7/23
• Price dro s to $90 • Price oes to $110
100.000 (+/- 5%) barrels of oil for $100 / barrel
Total value: $10.000.000
• 95.000 barrels
• Cost saving: $10 * 5.000
• 105.000 barrels
• Extra profit: $10 * 5000
![Page 8: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 8/23
• Price dro s to $90 • Price oes to $110
100.000 (+/- 5%) barrels of oil for $100 / barrel
Total value: $10.000.000
• 95.000 barrels
• Cost saving: $10 * 5.000
• 105.000 barrels
• Extra profit: $10 * 5000
95.000 barrels plus the option to buy
10.000 more
![Page 9: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 9/23
Financial OptionsEmbedded Options
Maths
FinancialMaths
Real Options
Information
© Striker W@SP
![Page 10: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 10/23
Black Scholes…..A House of Cards
© janetmck
![Page 11: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 11/23
Oops!
© shaymus022
![Page 12: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 12/23
Never commit
early unless youknow why
Options have
value © luismi1985
Options expire
© givepeasachance © Tub Gurnard
![Page 13: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 13/23
1. Right2. Wrong3. Uncertainty
© Bethany L King
© Violator3
![Page 14: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 14/23
A or B?
Maths
WWW.
Grid
© The Nug
© Uninen
![Page 15: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 15/23
© TAudiophile
© lucadex
![Page 16: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 16/23
© codyR
© Hamedog
![Page 17: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 17/23
© elliottcable
© whitneybee
![Page 18: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 18/23
STOP
Guessing!
© topher76
![Page 19: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 19/23
Create Options
© haydnseek
![Page 20: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 20/23
Prepare to run fast.
© James Temple
![Page 21: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 21/23
……and have fun. © lordkirbs
![Page 22: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 22/23
Q&A
![Page 23: Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options](https://reader036.fdocuments.us/reader036/viewer/2022081401/577dabee1a28ab223f8d2ecc/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
8/14/2019 Realistic about Risk: Software development with Real Options
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/realistic-about-risk-software-development-with-real-options 23/23
Further Reading:
Article: “Real Options” underlie agile practiceshttp://www.infoq.com/articles/real-options-enhance-agility
Contact Information:
Olav Maassen ([email protected])
Chris Matts ([email protected])
All photo’s are licensed under the Creative Commons license by their respective owners.Pictures are taken from flickr.com