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Coupled systems for short-range prediction

CAS vision papers

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CAS is now planning to have a series of short future vision papers for consideration at the next Commission session (Seoul, November 2009)

One of which is proposed as "Ocean modelling issues related to weather and climate", with the names of Peter Dexter and Neville Smith included for now, as placeholders

Communication with Peter Dexter

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stemIt would probably help thenm to have a copy of the EC-

RTT paper on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Framework for Weather, Climate Water and Environmental Prediction since I believe this did cover a fair bit of this ground. It will probably be important to have WCRP ocean modelling participation.

Neville Smith and Michael Beland

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FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES Challenges facing Prediction Research: A report of the EC Task Team (EC-RTT) on Research Aspects of an Enhanced Climate, Weather, Water and Environmental Prediction Framework

World Meteorological Organization EXECUTIVE COUNCIL SIXTY-FIRST SESSIONGeneva, 3 to 12 June 2009

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8.2 The Council endorsed the need for a major change in the paradigm for prediction research to take into account the erosion of traditional boundaries between weather forecasting, seasonal forecasting and climate prediction as well as the expanded mandate of weather prediction services to provide not only traditional meteorological forecasts but also new and novel variables and products, particularly with respect to climate change. It encouraged Members to adopt a unified approach to weather, climate, water, ocean and environmental prediction research and the associated services. The unified approach to prediction and services should span multiple spatial scales as well as multiple time scales, including for example downscaling of climate information to local scale. The Council stressed the importance of managing user expectations In developing services,

8.3 The Council agreed that computing capacity is a major limiting factor in the advancement of prediction capabilities of Members and that there is a need for a step up in high-performance computing investments for coordinating and accelerating coupled weather, climate, chemical, ocean and hydrology model development, validation and use.

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Gaps between weather, sub-seasonal and seasonal predictions 1.1 Support collaborative climate/weather efforts on the use of Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) experiments with coupled ocean-atmosphere models for exploring error growth in simulations of modes of organized convection and of interactions between tropical and extratropical by establishing collaboration between the TIGGE and CHFP projects (Brunet et al., 2007).

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Authors are requested to prepare vision papers to be posted for public comment prior to the fifteenth quadrennial session of the WMO Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS-XV) in Incheon City near Seoul Korea 18-25 November 2009. CAS XV will be preceded by a Technical Conference 16-17 November 2009 entitled “Environmental prediction In The Next decade: Weather, Climate, Water and the Air We Breathe. Please submit these papers to WMO Research Department, Director Dr. Leonard Barrie (LBarrie@wmo.int) and Administrative Assistant Teresa Alcober (Talcober@wmo.int) by 25 July 2009. They should contain a short abstract summarizing the main points and be five pages maximum in size. Key reference documents in pdf format can be cited when they are posted through URL links.

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stemWMO will post these documents on the web 1 August

2009 to 15 October 2009 and solicit comments widely from weather, climate, water and environmental research community.

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Some focii that might be considered: A) prospects for skilful SST forecasts emerging from GODAE systems.

B) atmospheric state correction from coupled data assimilation,

projection

of ocean innovations from GOOS onto atmospheric state variables

C) high resolution coupled air-wave-sea boundary layer modelling

D) progress on coupled tropical cyclone modelling

E) prospects for closure of flux errors for ocean forecasting

F) coupled high resolution reanalyses

G) practical aspects of coupled NWP-wave-ocean prediction, pattern of

skill, infrastructure

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Actions:

Comment on the focii (over lunch or by email)

Provide me any references to reports/publications of coupled impact

Leading systems and researchers in this field

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Gustavo Goni  coordinated a GODAE symposum Oceanography special issue,

Goni et al. (Sandery co-author), 2009.  Applications of satellite-derived ocean

measurements to tropical  cyclone intensity forecasting. Peer reviewed invited paper for

special  special issue of Oceanography  

ECMWF workshop on air-sea interaction

http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2008/ocean_atmosphere_interaction/index.html

This  did not consider GODAE systems but considered some of the important air-sea  

processes that need to be included.

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National report

GODAE intercomparison - TEIO

SLA AMSRE

Benchmarking

OceanMAPS Coastal SLA – Operational relevance

Operational relevance• Large potential target audience

– coastal populations;– commercial operations.

• Range of potential new or improved end-user products– Warnings;– Guidance;– Forecasts.

• Final form of these outcomes under development– Directed by results of detailed evaluation:

• skill & skill evolution over forecast;• error characteristics and confidence.

– Likely to involve location dependence;– User community feedback.

OceanMAPS Coastal SLA – Operational issues

Observations

• Quality control– Relatively sparse insitu obs

• Can’t rely on ‘buddy checks’• greater need for QA• Need to automate

– Quality flags• Dependence on hardware & gauge setup• Communications system accommodation

– Existing treatment of quality internally• Non-uniform

Example of good operational performance

Southern Bight region.Good match between de-tided obs & OceanMAPS SLA operational analysis

OceanMAPS Coastal SLA – example

OceanMAPS - Coastal SLACoastal SLA performance results vary with location

Australian region large:• spread of latitudes• mix of processes• Obs relatively sparse spatially

Ongoing analysis work.Details to be published.

Glider observed 0-700m currents

Bluelink (BOM/MOM4) model currentsSampled at glider time/position

Bluelink is quite consistent with the glider observations, on large and small scales.It shows vigorous eddy variability in theSolomon Sea, masking the western boundary currents.

Model simulations help interpret the glider sampling (eddy vs large-scale).

Glider data helps evaluate model fidelity.

Bluelink example for 15-20 Oct 07

William S. Kessler, PMEL

Red – 2008 buoys, Blue – 2007 buoys, Black – third partyLagrangian paths represent +/- 4 days of analysis dateAll buoys from GTS (unprocessedand unfiltered)

Incorrect shape of front

Position of front eastward of observed

Good validation of currents and fronts

Saddle point observed and well estimated

Tasman front observed and estimated

EAC separation point observed further south

Poor comparison between obs and currents

Generally good agreementAn indication of the ocean analysis tends to be behind real-timeGood complementary information

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Summons and Brassington