Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation...

Government of Maharashtra Hydrology Project II

Water Resources Department IBRD Loan No: 4749-IN

Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins

in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Final Report

October 2013


Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River

Basins in Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Final Report

October 2013

DHI (India) Water &

Environment Pvt Ltd

3rd

Floor, NSIC

Bhawan, Okhla

Industrial Estate

New Delhi 11 00 20

India

Tel:+9111 47034500 +91 11 4703 4500

Fax:+911147034501 +91 11 4703 4501

[email protected] www.dhigroup.com

Client

Chief Engineer, Planning & Hydrology

Client’s representative

Superintending Engineer

Project


Operation System for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in

Maharashtra (RTSF & ROS)

Project No

63800247

Authors

Dhananjay Pandit

Gregers Jorgensen

Anders Klinting

Finn Hansen

Date:

5 October 2013

Approved by

Guna Paudyal

01 Final Report (based on comments from Client & other

stakeholders on the Draft Final Report)

DJP GNP 05.10.13

Revision Description By Checked Approved Date

Key words

Real Time, Streamflow, Flood, Forecasting,

Reservoir Operation, Forecast Models, Hydrology,

Hydraulics, River Basin, Capacity Building

Classification

Open

Internal

Proprietary

Distribution No of copies

Client:

DHI:

PDF file

50

2 CDs

http://www.dhigroup.com/

RTSF&ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

ii Final Report

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations

BSD Basin Simulation Division

CWC Central Water Commission

DA Data Assimilation

DAS Data Acquisition System

DEM Digital Elevation Model

DSS Decision Support System

FCL Flood Control Level (from rule curve)

FCS Full Climate Station

FMO Flood meteorological Office (of IMD)

FRL Full Reservoir Level

GIS Geographic Information System

GMRBA Godavari Marathwada River Basin Agency

GMS Geostationary Meteorological Satellite

GoI Government of India

GoM Government of Maharashtra

GPRS General Packet Radio Service

GSM Global System for Mobile Communications

HD Hydrodynamic

HIS Hydrological Information system

HP-II Hydrology Project Phase II

IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development

IMD Indian Meteorological Department

KRBA Konkan River Basin Agency

MERI Maharashtra Engineering Research Institute

MKRBA Maharashtra Krishna River Basin Agency

MODIS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer

MoWR Ministry of Water Resources

MWL Maximum Water Level

NIH National Institute of Hydrology, Roorkee

NCMRWF National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting

NRSA National Remote Sensing Organisation

NWP Numerical Weather Prediction

QA Quality Assurance

Final Report iii

QAP Quality Assurance Plan

QC Quality Control

QPF Quantitative Precipitation Forecast

RIMES Regional Integrated Multi Hazard Early Warning System

RMC Regional Meteorological Centre (of IMD)

RMSE Root Mean Square Error

ROS Reservoir Operation System

RR Rainfall-Runoff

RS Remote Sensing

RTDAS Real Time Data Acquisition System

RTDSS Real Time Decision Support System

RTSF Real Time Streamflow Forecasting

SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar

SO Structure Operation

SRTM Shuttle Radar Topography Mission

TAMC Technical Assistance Management Consultancy (HP-II World Bank)

TKRBA Tapi Khandesh River Basin Agency

VRBA Vidarbha River Basin Agency

WALMI Water and Land Management Institute

WB World Bank

WRD Water Resources Department


iv Final Report

Table of Contents

List of Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................. ii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ............................................................................. VII

1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES & ACHIEVEMENTS ................................... 1

1.1 Background .............................................................................................. 1

1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins .......................................................... 2

1.3 Project Objectives and Outputs ............................................................. 4

1.4 Project Achievements .............................................................................. 5

2 KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM ............................................................... 8

2.1 Features of RTSF&ROS ......................................................................... 8

2.2 Brief Description of KBS ........................................................................ 9

2.3 Hardware ................................................................................................. 9

2.4 Software .................................................................................................. 10

2.5 Database ................................................................................................. 11

2.6 Knowledge management ....................................................................... 14

3 THE RTSF&ROS MODELS ................................................................... 18

3.1 Modelling system ................................................................................... 18

3.2 Rainfall-runoff Model ........................................................................... 19

3.3 Hydrodynamic Model ........................................................................... 23

3.3.1 Model Development .................................................................................................. 23

3.3.2 Model Outputs ........................................................................................................... 27

Model ......................................................................................................................... 27

3.3.3 Calibration ................................................................................................................. 27

3.3.4 Model Applications .................................................................................................... 29

3.4 The Forecasting System ........................................................................ 34

3.4.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................ 34

3.4.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF) ............................................................... 35

3.4.3 The Forecasting and Operation System ..................................................................... 36

3.4.4 Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 38

3.4.5 Rainfall forecast scenario ........................................................................................... 39

4 RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM .................................................. 40

4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 40

Final Report v

4.2 Short Term Optimization ..................................................................... 41

4.2.1 Methodology .............................................................................................................. 41

4.2.2 Example Applications ................................................................................................ 43

4.3 Long Term Optimization ...................................................................... 48

4.3.1 Optimization of reservoir operation for flood season ................................................ 48

4.3.2 Example applications ................................................................................................. 48

4.3.3 Ujjani Reservoir ......................................................................................................... 50

4.3.4 Pawana Reservoir ...................................................................................................... 51

4.4 Optimization of Reservoir Operation for Long-term Water

Management .................................................................................................. 52

4.5 Integrated Operation of Reservoirs .................................................... 55

4.6 Reservoir Operation Guidance System ............................................... 60

4.7 Scenario Management .......................................................................... 61

4.7.1 Reservoir operation scenarios .................................................................................... 61

5 COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION MANAGEMENT

SYSTEM ................................................................................ 63

5.1 Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination .............................. 63

5.1.1 RTSF&ROS Website ................................................................................................. 63

5.1.2 Communication WEB Portal...................................................................................... 65

5.1.3 Flood Warning Reports/Messages ............................................................................. 68

6 CAPACITY BUILDING .......................................................................... 73

6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 73

6.2 Trainings Conducted ............................................................................ 73

6.3 International Study Tours .................................................................... 74

6.3.1 Study tour to Europe .................................................................................................. 74

6.3.2 Study tour to USA ...................................................................................................... 76

6.3.3 International training (Proposed) ............................................................................... 79

6.4 Workshops ............................................................................................. 79

6.5 Strategy for Sustainability of RTSF&ROS ........................................ 81

6.5.1 Institutional Strengthening ......................................................................................... 81

6.5.2 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD ...................................................................... 81

6.5.3 Operational Control Room ......................................................................................... 83

7 ACTIVITIES FOR SUPPORT PERIOD ............................................... 84

7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 84


vi Final Report

7.2 Support to be Provided ......................................................................... 84

7.3 Training Plan during the Support Period .......................................... 86

8 REFERENCES .......................................................................................... 88

DOCUMENTATION ........................................................................................ 91

APPENDIX A: LIST OF TRAININGS CONDUCTED ................................ 92

APPENDIX B: RESULTS OF RTSF&ROS USING REAL TIME DATA

ACQUISITION SYSTEM .................................................... 95

Final Report vii

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Project “Consultancy services for the implementation of real time streamflow

forecasting and reservoir operations for Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra”

commenced with the opening of the project office in Pune on the auspicious day of

Ganesh Chaturthi on 17th

August 2011. DHI (India) Water and Environment are the

Consultants assigned by the Water Resources Department of Government of Maharashtra,

India. The assignment was scheduled to be completed in 18 months with an extended

technical support period of two years.

The main objective of the RTSF&ROS project is to equip the Water Resources Department

of Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and

forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the Krishna

and Bhima basins in Maharashtra.

The principal outputs in relation to the forecasting and operation guidance system are:

1. A hydrological Knowledge Base

2. A Forecasting System for reservoir inflows and floods along the river systems

3. A Reservoir Operation Guidance

4. A Web based interactive Communication System

5. A Capacity Building Programme

All outputs of the above main tasks have been delivered on time. While technical details

related to all the tasks and deliverables have been presented in earlier reports, this final

report contains a summary of project achievements. Capacity building activities, strategy

for sustainability of the developed system and a work plan for the two-year support period

are presented in the Report.

A Knowledge Base System (KBS) is developed for the Krishna and Bhima River basins,

which consists of a comprehensive database of historical hydrological data, links to real

time data with capability of updating as data becomes available. The KBS contains all

available data relating to GIS data, topographic data, satellite imageries showing

administrative/land use/land cover/cropped and irrigated areas, soils, climate, historical

hydro-meteorological data, water levels and flow, water resources including reservoirs,

facilities for the generation of daily crop water requirements. In addition to typical


viii Final Report

database functions, KBS is capable of performing a variety of data analysis including

resampling and statistical analysis.

The Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) is

built upon the MIKE11 modelling system which comprises the hydrological rainfall-runoff

model, the hydraulic river routing model based on a fully dynamic solution of the St.

Venant’s equations, the data assimilation process used in real time flow and flood

forecasting. The hydrodynamic model contains updated river cross sections from the recent

field surveys carried out in 2012. The streamflow and flood forecasting model has been

tested with historical events in hindcast mode capturing all types of average, dry and flood

events that occurred in the Krishna and Bhima basins in the recent past. In absence of real

time from RTDAS the system was tested and demonstrated with data from various

Government Websites in 2012. The RTSF&ROS has now been fully tested with real time

data from RTDAS during the monsoon (July-August) of 2013. The “live test” and

implementation of the RTSF&ROS during the monsoon season of 2013 has been

completed satisfactorily.

The RTSF&ROS is used for providing reservoir operation guidance for an integrated

operation of the reservoirs in the two basins. The reservoir operation is also aided by

including both short term optimization of reservoir operation during flood emergencies as

well as for long term operation. A comprehensive river basin simulation model is also

developed for the two basins based on the MIKEBASIN system. This simulation model

together with optimization of reservoir operation provides a basis of optimum releases for

irrigation, water supply and flood control and hydropower in the entire system.

The communication and information management system consists of three main

components: Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination, the RTSF&ROS Website

and the main communication Web Portal (Krishna Bhima Online). A variety of flow/flood

warning reports and messages are developed to be disseminated to concerned authority,

organisation and communities. Also a variety of dissemination mechanisms are developed.

A website of the RTSF&ROS project has been developed for wider dissemination of

information. The Krishna-Bhima Online system is the main Web based real time

interactive information and decision support portal developed as the front end user

interface of the RTSF&ROS.

Final Report ix

In order to build the capacity of WRD, especially the Basin Simulation Division, a variety

of trainings have been conducted. The BSD officers are capable of operating the

RTSF&ROS. Detailed training materials, user guides and scientific references of the

modelling software have been provided. Six sets of MIKE software along with technical

documentation and user manuals have been delivered to various WRD offices as stipulated

in the contract and as instructed by WRD. The capacity building activities, especially

training of WRD/BSD officers in modelling, has been a continuous process. A series of

trainings have been provided to WRD officials. Selected WRD officers are now able to use

the developed models. Hands-on-training will be continued during the 2-year support

period. The database and models and the forecasting system together with computer

hardware and software have been installed in the operational control room of the Basin

Simulation Division at 1st floor of Sinchan Bhawan, Pune. The control room is fully

functional and the network and servers are fully integrated with the RTDAS.

The RTSFA&ROS development and outputs of all the components were discussed in four

workshops well attended by WRD and other stakeholders. Suggestions and feedback from

workshop participants and review committee members have been incorporated. The Draft

Final Report was submitted to WRD in early January 20123 for comments and

suggestions. This Final report incorporates all comments received from WRD, Review

Committee members, TAMC and others. The Report was presented at the Fifth and Final

workshop held at YASHDA centre Pune on 3rd

October. The workshop was well attended

by WRD, officials from other states of HP-II, World Bank Task Team Leader and other

officials managing the HP-II project, review committee members and other stakeholders.

The achievements of the project were appreciated by all the participants and WRD and it

was agreed that the stipulated objectives were fulfilled and satisfactory outputs delivered.

The sustainability of the technology was discussed and was noted that WRD will be in a

position to sustain the RTSF&ROS with the involvement of trained and qualified staff to

maintain and update the system.

As stipulated in the TOR a work plan has been provided for the two-year support period.

The work plan includes an intensive input of experts during the 2013 monsoon, four

trainings and further support through the two-year period.

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS RTSF&ROS

Final Report 1

1 PROJECT OBJECTIVES & ACHIEVEMENTS

1.1 Background The geographical area of Maharashtra state is 308,000 km

2. Major river basins in

the state are the Krishna river with its major tributary as Bhima, Godavari, Tapi and

the West flowing rivers of Konkan strip (Figure 1.1). Maharashtra receives rainfall

from both south-west and north-east monsoon. The state has very highly variable

rainfall ranging from 6000 mm in upper catchments to 400 mm in shadow areas of

lower catchments. Majority of rainfall mainly occurs in a four months period

between June to September with the number of rainy days varying between 40 to

100. The state experiences flash floods particularly in Western Ghats including

Krishna and Upper Bhima basins. For instance, Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur

districts in Krishna Basin and Pune and Solapur districts in Bhima basin

experienced severe flood several times during recent decade.

Figure 1-1 River Basins of Maharashtra

The Water Resources Department (WRD) of Government of Maharashtra (GoM) is

entrusted with the surface water resources planning, development and management.

A large number of major, medium and minor water resources development projects

(reservoirs and weirs) have been constructed in Maharashtra. Though, the reservoirs

in Maharashtra are not specifically provided with flood cushion, they have

moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The

reservoirs are multipurpose including hydropower, irrigation, domestic and

industrial uses and are operated with rigid schedules as single entities based on the

historical hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are

often not adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially where

integrated operation of multiple reservoirs for flood management is contemplated.

In addition, manual data observation and transmission results in a considerable time

lag, between data observed in field and its communication to decision making level

which sometime leaves little time, for flood forecasts.

The Ministry of Water Resources (MoWR), Government of India (GoI) has

initiated Hydrology Project Phase II (HP-II), which is a follow-on to the concluded

Hydrology Project-I (HP-I:1995-2003). During HP-I, the Hydrological Information


2 Final Report 2

System (HIS) was developed for the entire state of Maharashtra and the data is

monitored manually 1-2 times a day. Under HP-II project, real time decision

support system inflow forecasting in Bhakra Beas system and Decision Support

System (DSS) for water resources planning and management are being developed.

The Upper Bhima basin has been selected as a pilot basin for latter one i.e. DSS

(planning). In addition, Government of Maharashtra has proposed to upgrade the

existing HIS with real time data acquisition system (RTDAS) for Krishna and

Bhima basins. Simultaneously, it is proposed to develop a real time streamflow

forecasting (RTSF) and reservoir operation system (ROS) in Krishna and Bhima

river basins to manage the floods and operate reservoirs optimally for multiple uses.

It is envisaged that the system would facilitate reservoir operators to act on time

and prepare stakeholders for the floods. The forecast of river flow and mapping of

flood zone will help in taking the decisions such as evacuation of the likely

affecting areas well in advance. In addition, the reservoir operation system would

facilitate the optimization of the storages for ensuring flood cushion and improving

agricultural productivity.

1.2 Krishna and Bhima River Basins The Krishna River Basin, of which Bhīma is a major tributary, covers an area of

258,000 sq.km (nearly 8% of India) in three large states—Karnataka, Maharashtra,

Andhra Pradesh. Maharashtra covers 69,967 km2 of Bhima & Krishna basin area

(Figure 1.2). As Bhima joins Krishna only in Karnataka, these two rivers basins are

generally treated as separate basins. This part is one of the fasted economically

growing regions and hence there is an ever growing competition for water among

different sectors viz. agriculture, industries and domestic users. There are 46

reservoirs in Bhima & Krishna out of which 30 are Major Projects and 16 are

Medium Projects.

The river Krishna which is one of the major rivers of Maharashtra covering an area

of 21,114 km2 is 282 km long. Krishna originates from Mahabaleshwar in Satara

district and flows through Satara, Sangali and Kolhapur Districts. It mainly flows

from north to south. Three of its main tributaries namely, Koyna, Warana,

Panchaganga flow from west to east and the fourth main tributary Yerala flows

from east to west. There are 19 reservoirs in Krishna basin, out of which 10 are

major projects viz. Dhom, Kanher, Urmodi, Tarali, Koyna, Warna, Radhanagari,

Dudhganga, Tembhu Barrage and Satpewadi Barrage. The 9 medium projects are

Dhom Balkawadi, Mahu, Uttarmand, Morna(Gureghar), Wang, Kadvi, Kasari,

Kumbhi and Dhamni. Figure 1.3 shows locations of reservoirs in the Krishna Basin.


Final Report 3

Figure 1-2 The Krishna and Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra

The Bhima River rises from Bhimashankar near Karjat on the western side of the

Western Ghats known as Sahyadri hill ranges at an altitude of about 945 m above

the sea level. The Bhima River flows in the southeast direction for 745 km covering

the states of Maharashtra and Karnataka. The Bhima River drains an area of 48,853

km2 in Maharashtra. The length of Bhima in Maharashtra is 451 km and it joins

Krishna on the Karnataka – Andhra Pradesh boundary near near Kudlu in Raichur

District.

In the course of the journey it meets many small rivers. The major tributaries of this

river around Pune are Kundali, Ghod, Bhama, Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana.

The Indrayani, Mula, Mutha and Pawana flow through Pune and Pimpri Chinchwad

city. The major tributaries of Bhima in Solapur are Chandani, Kamini, Moshi, Bori,

Sina, Man, Bhogwati and Nira. The Bhima meets the Nira River in Narsinghpur in

Malshiras taluka in Solapur district. The last 298 km of its course is in Karnataka

where it merges with the Krishna River. The banks of the Bhima River are densely

populated and form a fertile agricultural land. The river also causes floods due to

heavy rainfall it receives during the monsoon.

Bhima basin has 27 reservoirs out of which 20 are major projects and 7 are medium

projects. The major projects are Pimpalgaon Joga, Manikdoh, Yedgaon, Wadaj,

Dimbe, Chaskaman, Bhama Askheda, Pawana, Mulshi, Temghar, Warasgaon,

Panshet, Khadakwasla, Ghod, Ujjani, Sina-Kolegaon, Gunjawani, Bhatghar, Vir

and Nira Deoghar. The medium projects are Chilewadi, Kalmodi, Andhra,

Wadiwale, Kasar Sai, Sina (Nimgaon) and Nazare.


4 Final Report 4

Some areas of the Krishna and Bhima basins suffer from floods. Figure 1.3 shows

reaches of Krishna and Bhima and their tributaries which are flooded. The years

2005 and 2006 observed heavy floods in the basins. Due to heavy rains in the

catchment of Krishna, Warna and Panchganga rivers created flood havocs in

Sangli, Satara and Kolhapur districts in July 2005. Sangli city is one of the most

flood prone areas in the Krishna basin. Pandharpur city on Bhima basin is another

flood prone area. Some areas in Pune city gets flooded from the Mutha and Mula

rivers.

Figure 1-3 Flood Prone Reaches (in red) in Krishna and Bhima Basins

1.3 Project Objectives and Outputs The objective of this project is to equip the Water Resources Department of

Government of Maharashtra with a web-based real time streamflow monitoring and

forecasting system and reservoir operation system for flood management in the

Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra.

The specific objective of the Project is to develop a Real Time Streamflow

Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) for the Krishna and

Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra.

The principal outputs of the project are:


Final Report 5

(1) A Knowledge Base System comprising historical and real time hydro-

meteorological data, GIS data incorporated in a Knowledge Management

System for ease of access, display and maintenance of the knowledge

base.

(2) A Forecasting System for reservoirs and river systems including inflows

and floods levels efficiently utilising weather forecasts and real time data

from the RTDAS.

(3) A Reservoir Operation Guidance System.

(4) A web based interactive Communication System allowing access to the

Knowledge Base, and the Forecasting and Guidance Systems for WRD

offices and stakeholders.

(5) A comprehensive Capacity Building programme for WRD comprising

formal training courses, on-the-job training, workshops, study tours and

hotline support.

1.4 Project Achievements A summary of project tasks, works carried out to achieve the outputs and related

deliverables are presented in Table 1.1

Table 1.1 Summary of Project Tasks and Deliverables

Main task Works Carried Out and outputs Deliverables

Task 1

Review Current

Forecasting and

Operational

Capabilities

After reviewing the current

forecasting, reservoir operation,

warning dissemination and

emergency response capabilities in

the Krishna and Bhima Basins the

needs of WRD and stakeholders for

effective water resources and flood

management in Krishna and Bhima

Basins have been identified.

Sources of weather forecasts, and

flow forecasting and reservoir

operation tools have been

identified and assessed.

Reviewed all available hydro-

climatological data and data

management systems, the RTDAS

network, real time satellite data,

and identified critical gaps and

recommend strategies to fill these.

Options and scenarios for optimal

multiple reservoir operation have

Inception Report


6 Final Report 6

been defined.

Reviewed institutional capacity of

WRD, and recommended

improvements for human resource

development, and facilities for

effective functioning.

Task 2

Knowledge Base

Development

The functional specifications for

the WRD Krishna-Bhima

knowledge base have been

developed.

Designed and developed database

management system.

Developed knowledge base.

Developed the knowledge

management system.

Interim report,

Initial model demos

Knowledge Base System

Task 3

Real-Time

Streamflow /

Flood Forecasting

Model

The modelling system consisting of

hydrological and hydrodynamic

models based on MIKE11 was

established for the Krishna and

Bhima River Basins and calibrated

against historical and current data.

Model results were used to identify

critical reaches for forecasts.

The modelling system has been

integrated with weather forecasts

(QPF) and the RTDAS.

Data assimilation has been applied

to ensure the maximum

information is extracted from the

real time data to ensure the best

possible forecasts.

Flood maps have been prepared for

critical historical events, and tools

have been developed for flood

forecast mapping.

Interim Report

Model Development

Report

Final Report

Task 4

Reservoir

Operational

Guidance System

The simulation models have been

extended with optimisation for

water resources and flood

management.

Operational guidance system for

Interim Report

Reservoir Operation &

communication &

information management


Final Report 7

multiple, multi-purpose reservoir

operation have been established.

Report

Task 5

Communication

and Information

Management

Systems

A communication Strategy and

Protocol supporting information

channels and dissemination has

been developed.

Designed, prepared specifications

for the Operational Control Room,

and supported the development,

necessary equipment have been

procured.

The Web Portal has been

developed to provide access and

disseminate information from the

Knowledge Base and the RTSF-

ROS.

Reservoir Operation &

communication &

information management

Report

Task 6

Capacity Building

and

WRD staff was engaged in and

supported the development of the

Streamflow and Reservoir

Operation Guidance System.

Several trainings were conducted.

Facilitated Workshops organised

by WRD.

International study tours for senior

managers of WRD were organized.

Prepared operational user and

reference manuals, online context

dependent help, documented

demonstration cases, training

materials.

A plan for technical support, with

further training courses and hotline

support has been prepared.

A strategy for long term

sustainability and enhancement of

the developed system including an

institutional strengthening plan has

been developed.

Training Materials

Workshop reports

User guides

Final report


8 Final Report 8

2 KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM

2.1 Features of RTSF&ROS The specific objective of the Project is to develop a Real Time Streamflow

Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS) for the Krishna and

Bhima River Basins in Maharashtra. The System integrates the real time Data

Acquisition System (RTDAS) with data from external sources, meteorological

forecasts, flow forecast modelling, analysis and decision support tools in an IT

system designed for ease of use by operators.

The main features of the RTSF&ROS are:

Comprehensive database

Comprehensive facilities for integrated presentation of the dynamics

of the hydrology and water resources of the basin

A range of hydrological, river basin water resources and

hydrodynamic river models

Predictions of the future hydrologic state of the catchment and river

system

Reservoir Operation Guidance system

At the core of the RTSF&ROS, also called a Real Time Decision Support System

(RTDSS) are mathematical models which describe the state of the catchment,

reservoirs and main rivers, and predict future states for a range of scenarios relating

to natural events and human intervention. The models require data:

describing the physical features of the catchments, rivers, reservoirs

and other hydraulic structures

hydrologic data describing the state of the catchment and rivers –

historical data for model calibration

real time and forecast data for making forecasts of future catchment

states

water demand data for optimizing the operation of reservoirs

All data used for modelling purposes and output from model simulations are stored

and maintained in the database of the Knowledge Base System (KBS). The KBS

provides a large number of functionalities for working with data, comprising

database input and output tools, data visualisation and data processing (filtering,

gap filling, etc).

Modelling-wise the RTSF&ROS includes functionality for automatically extracting

and arranging the necessary data for the model simulations and subsequently for

importing the generated data to the database. This ensures that data (covering both

observations and model output) are readily available in the RTSF&ROS user

interface and that system management becomes easier compared to having data

stored in file system folders.


Final Report 9

2.2 Brief Description of KBS The main output of Task 2 – Knowledge Base development is Knowledge Base

System (KBS), designed and installed with all historical hydro-meteorological data,

river flows and levels, irrigation data, available satellite images and other GIS data

collected and populated in the database. The GIS data include topographic data,

satellite imageries showing administrative/land use/land cover/cropped and

irrigated areas, soils. The KBS has also a facility of generation of daily crop water

requirements using data from real time full climate stations (FCS). Data from the

reservoirs have been collected and included in the database. The database system is

flexible to receive any additional data from other sources. Also the features include

update and incorporation new data. For the real time data, facilities and links have

been developed to import al RTDAS data. Real time data flow protocol has been

developed and tested, which ensures seamless flow of data from RTDAS to the

KBS. The knowledge base also has the capability of analysing historical hydro-

climatic time series data. Figure 2-1 shows overall contents of the KBS.

In addition to providing the input data for the mathematical models, the database

will also store the results from the models. The database will be used to store

historical hydrologic data on the basin and data collected through the RTDAS,

definitions of the various scenarios that WRD will utilise for short and long term

planning, and input that can be used to operate the dams and other controls.

Figure 2-1 Over all Contents of the Knowledge Base System

2.3 Hardware The main hardware of the KBS is a Database Server - Dell(TM) PowerEdge(TM)

T710. It is a powerful machine with 24GB RAM and 1 TB Hard Drive with

additional Hard Drive for data backup. The Database Server hosts all the historical

as well as Real Time data received from the RTDAS as well as various sources and

model results. The KBS uses the data from Database server.


10 Final Report 10

A Web Server Dell(TM) PowerEdge(TM) T110 II has 4GB RAM and 500 GB

Hard Drive. The Web Server is mainly for dissemination modelling results,

warnings and any other information which WRD wants to publish.

Two high end machines are Lenovo Think Center DeskTop 1607G7Q with Intel

Core I3, 4GB RAM and 500 GB Hard Drive. The desktops are for running the

models as well as KBS. The results from the models are sent to Web Server for

publishing.

2.4 Software The database component of KBS is a relational database management system

(RDBMS) storing data in the form of related tables. Relational databases require

few assumptions about how data is related or how it will be extracted from the

database. As a result, the same database can be viewed in many different ways.

The RDBMS is prepared for handling all types of DSS data: GIS (spatial) data,

time series data and scenario/model data.

The Database components used in the system comprise:

PostgreSQL – a standard well-proven Enterprise-level

RDBMS:

PostGIS – an extension to PostgreSQL that makes it possible

to maintain and process GIS data

PostgreSQL is an object-relational database management system. It is released

under a Berkeley Software Distribution (BSD) style license and is thus free and

open source software. As with many other open source programs, PostgreSQL is

not controlled by any single company, but has a global community of developers

and companies to develop it. The development of PostgreSQL dates back to the

early 1980s.

The main features of PostgreSQL comprise:

Stored procedures can be written in high-level languages like

Python, C++ and Java

Indexes – based both on column values and expressions.

Partial indexes are also supported

Triggers can also be coded in high-level languages

Multi-version concurrency control which provides individual

user snapshots of the database

Updatable views

A wide variety of data types

User defined objects

Inheritance – tables can inherit characteristics from a parent

table. This can be used to implement table partitioning

The PostgreSQL database is described in more detail on the PostgreSQL home

page (http://www.postgresql.org). The input to PostgreSQL is SQL statements and

the output is result sets from the executed SQL statements.

http://www.postgresql.org/


Final Report 11

PostGIS is an open source software program that adds support for geographic

objects to the PostgreSQL object-relational database. PostGIS follows the Simple

Features for SQL specification from the Open Geospatial Consortium. The first

version of PostGIS was released in 2001. The main features of PostGIS comprise:

Geometry types for points, linestrings, polygons, multipoints,

multilinestrings, multipolygons and geometrycollections

Spatial predicates for determining the interactions of

geometries using the 3x3 Egenhofer matrix (provided by the

GEOS software library)

Spatial operators for determining geospatial measurements like

area, distance, length and perimeter

Spatial operators for determining geospatial set operations, like

union, difference, symmetric difference and buffers (provided

by GEOS)

R-tree-over-GiST (Generalised Search Tree) spatial indexes

for high speed spatial querying

Index selectivity support, to provide high performance query

plans for mixed spatial/non-spatial queries

Raster data in the form of ASCII grids and GeoTiffs as gridded rasters and geo-

referenced images (BMP, JPG, GIF, PNG).

2.5 Database The Krishna-Bhima Database is a tailored database system developed using the

above described software. The database stores a wide range of data. The data are

categorised according to the format in which they are stored. The link between the

data types, which essentially describes how the data are collected, and the data

categories is set out in Table 2.2.

Table 2.2 Data Categories

CATEGORY INPUT

FORMAT TYPES

Spatial Data Shapefile

Image

Grid

DEM

Remote Sensing

Meteorological

Forecasts

Temporal

Data

Time Series Ground Based Point

Data (historical)

Remote Sensing

RTDAS

Meteorological

Forecasts

Numerical

Models

Rainfall-Runoff

(NAM)

Model Parameter

Files


12 Final Report 12

Scenario

Definitions

Water Resources

(MIKE Basin)

Reservoir

Bathymetry

Hydrodynamics

(MIKE 11)

River Cross Sections

Structure Geometry

The shapefile format is the most common file format for storing spatial related

information. The format is developed by Environmental System Research Institute

(ERSI) and is an open and well defined format supported by most providers of

spatial information. Some data types appear in both spatial and temporal data

categories, i.e. remote sensing and meteorological forecasts. Figure 2-2 shows the

folder structure of GIS data.

Figure 2-2 Folder Structure of GIS Data

The time series data types are classified according to the frequency at which the

data change, and also reflect the means of data collection:

Real Time Data – comprise the data from RTDAS, WRD

sources for Rainfall and Reservoir Levels, and Rainfall

Forecast Sources.


Final Report 13

Historical Time Series Data – comprise point based

measurements of meteorological and hydrometric data made at

variable intervals.

Other Modelling Data – comprise surveys updated annually

or every few years, such as river cross sections and reservoir

bathymetry. Water level-discharge rating curves are also

included in this category. Rating curves for gates and power

stations are included in this category. This also covers the

daily crop water requirement data, generated in KBS.

A comprehensive range of high quality ground based point measured data

describing the state of the basin and the rivers and reservoirs will become available

in real time with implementation of the Real Time Data Acquisition System

(RTDAS). The real time network includes rainfall, climatic, reservoir water level

and discharge data. Although the commissioning of RTDAS has been delayed, a

data transfer protocol has been developed and tested. Real time data from the

RTDAS will be stored in the database in a similar folder structure as the historical

data. All data quality check will take place in the RTDAS. When data becomes

available in RTDAS it will be automatically transferred and stored in the RTDSS

database. A status message will be parsed for each station every time a new set of

measurements is received from the RTDAS.

Historical time series data have been imported to the database and organized in the

folder structure shown in Figure 2-3.


14 Final Report 14

Figure 2-3 Historical Time Series

2.6 Knowledge management The Time series manager of the KBS provides management and analysis

functionalities for storing, querying, importing, exporting and quality checking. In

addition, the manager offers a suite of tools for visualising, statistical analysis and

processing one or more time series. It may also be used to view data prior to model

simulations and to analyse and visualise model simulation outputs. Typical uses of

the time series manager are listed in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 Examples of the time series manager

Task Principal activities

Create Time Series A new time series can be created in the database by: directly

creating a series using the tool, importing a time series from

a variety of sources including RTDAS.

Edit Time Series An existing time series can be edited for all its components

(time, value)


Final Report 15

Export Time Series A time series may be exported to Excel, a modelling system

or an external file to a prescribed format.

Filter Time Series This function is very useful for large databases. Defining a

search criteria for looking-up time series in the database,

such as name, type data, scenarios etc.

Import Time Series Importing Time series data from Excel, etc.

Inspect Time Series Looking at the time series attributes and meta data

Visualize Time

Series

Activities include display time series data in tabular or

graphical forms, adding time series to an existing series or

chart, customizing the chart or table

Using/Processing

Time Series

This functionality is the most useful in data processing,

quality checking, gap analysis, resampling, statistical

analysis, etc.

In order to illustrate the time series analysis capabilities of the database, rainfall

data form Mahabaleshwar and discharge data from Karad G-D station were

selected. Data gaps are clearly indicated.

Figures 2-4 to 2-6 show the performed analyses. The analyses include re-sampling,

duration curve and statistical analysis. Further details of the KBS are presented in

the Knowledge Base System Documentation (June 2012).

Figure 2-4 The Daily Rainfall at Mahabaleshwar (top graph) has been re-

sampled into monthly (middle graph) and yearly (bottom graph).


16 Final Report 16

Figure 2-5 Discharge data at Karad G-D Station (top graph) has been used for

duration analysis (middle graph) and statistical analysis (seasonal annual

maximum)


Final Report 17

Figure 2-6 Cumulative probability distribution function (CDF) of discharge at

Karad G-D Station


18 Final Report 18

3 THE RTSF&ROS MODELS

3.1 Modelling system The modelling system developed in the project consists of:

A hydrological model (Rainfall-Runoff Model) for generating runoff from

a number of catchments schematized in the two basins.

A Hydrodynamic Model for routing flows through the river and reservoir

system to compute flows, water levels and flood maps.

A real time flood forecast module for computing streamflow and flood

forecast for period of 3 days from the time of forecast.

An user interface integrating the above models for operational forecasts

and for providing reservoir operation guidance, scenarios management and

flood warning and dissemination.

A river basin water resources simulation model for water allocation

including optimizing water use and reservoir operation.

The MIKE software system, developed by DHI, based primarily on the need for

advanced data assimilation for optimal flood forecasting, options for reservoir

operation, has been adopted for this project. This package fulfils the entire features

and functionality required for the Krishna-Bhima RTSF & ROS. Figure 3-1 shows

a modular structure of the MIKE11 modelling system.

Figure 3-1 Modular Structure of MIKE 11


Final Report 19

3.2 Rainfall-runoff Model To simulate the spatial variation in the lateral inflow to the river system, the two

basins have been subdivided into 122 sub-catchments as shown in Figure 3-2. The

sub-catchment delineation is to a large degree been based on gauging station

location to make it possible to calibrate the model at as many locations as possible.

Further sub-catchments have been defined at locations where important tributaries

join the main rivers and where spatial variation in precipitation or terrain indicate

the need for a subdivision. Further details of the model are presented in the Interim

report (March 2012) and the Model Development Report (September 2012).


20 Final Report 20

Figure 3-2 Sub-Catchment Delineation of Krishna and Bhima River Basins

(Showing rainfall stations, evaporation stations, reservoirs and G-D stations)

The hydrological model has been calibrated to obtain the best possible model

performance in terms of its ability to replicate the historical observed hydrographs


Final Report 21

on the basis of the historical input. If the model is able to simulate the historical

hydrographs well it will also perform well in future simulations. The final model

parameters were chosen so the best compromise was achieved between three

criteria: matching the peaks, matching the cumulative water balance (Wbl) curve

and reaching as high as possible the coefficient of determination (R2). The water

balance error (Wbl) is attempted to be as low as possible. The model has been

calibrated on all the available discharge gauging stations and reservoir inflow data.

The quality of model calibration depends on density, frequency and quality of input

data. In order to illustrate a good NAM calibration, the case of Koyna catchment is

presented in Figure 3-4, which shows an excellent calibration of the NAM

rainfall-runoff model for the years 2005 to 2006. Figure 3-5 shows a calibration for

Bhima_R2 Catchment.

In all cases, the opportunity for a much improved calibration will arise with the

availability of the higher frequency and higher density observations from the

RTDAS. In addition, the advanced data assimilation in the MIKE 11 software,

compensates for any deficiencies in the weather forecast and real time data, and in

the model setup, in relation to the actual current catchment response.

It can be concluded that the model calibration is satisfactory.


22 Final Report 22

Figure 3-3 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Discharges for Koyna

Catchment (R2=0.95, Wbl=0.00% (Obs=5660mm/y, Sim=5660mm/y))

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF&ROS

Final Report 23

Figure 3-4 Comparison of Simulated and Observed Discharges for Catchment

Bhima_R2 (R2=0.80, Wbl=-1.2% (Obs=1886mm/y, Sim=1863mm/y))

3.3 Hydrodynamic Model

3.3.1 Model Development

The Hydrodynamic River Model takes the rainfall-runoff from the NAM, and

carries out a continuous routing of the flows and flood waves through the main

rivers and reservoirs of the basin. The model outputs discharges and water levels

throughout, for application to short term Flood Forecasting and Optimisation.

The hydrodynamic river model for short term flood forecasting is established for

the two basins combined. Figure 3-5 shows the river network with information on

the river cross sections used from different sources, including the recent river

survey programme of WRD (2012). A total of 1,550 cross sections are applied in

the model. In order to produce flood inundation maps accurate flood plain transects

and a high resolution digital elevation model (DEM) is required. Since the DEM of

a reasonable resolution is not available for the Krishna and Bhima Basin, flood

plain levels obtained from the recent surveys have been used. The model describes

the propagation of flood waves through the river and reservoir system. The same


24 Final Report 24

model, incorporating data assimilation at all the real time discharge and water level

stations, is used in real time streamflow and flood forecasting. A detailed

description of how the model is developed is presented in the Interim Report

(March 2012) and the Model Development Report (September 2012). Figure 3-6

shows a MIKE11 schematic of the hydrodynamic model.

Figure 3-5 MIKE 11 Model Network showing cross section sources

Figure 3-6 MIKE11 Model Schematic


Final Report 25

Catchment runoffs from the NAM Rainfall-Runoff model are used as upstream

boundaries and intermediate inflows. The hydrodynamic model has an automatic

coupling to the rainfall-runoff model. The entire area of the two basins is

subdivided into 122 catchments. Each catchment is connected to the river model

either by a point connection in the case of a major tributary, or distributed in the

case of minor tributaries. Figure 3-7 shows the river network with NAM runoff

catchments.

Figure 3-7 River Network showing runoff catchments

A total of 43 reservoirs are included in the model as shown in Figure 3-7.


26 Final Report 26

Figure 3-8 Reservoirs in the MIKE11 Model

In the Krishna-Bhima model, reservoir spillway gates, irrigation outlets, hydro

power releases and leakage are incorporated as “control structures”. The functions

of the gated control structures can be simulated for different types of control

variables, such as water level, discharge, gate level etc.

The MIKE 11 Structure Operation (SO) module is being set up to describe the

present and future reservoir operation rules for the reservoirs within the Krishna

and Bhima river basins. The SO module is applied whenever the flows through

spillways and sluice gates are regulated by operation of movable gates or controlled

directly as in turbines and pumps. The operation rules are applied via a number of

logical statements combined with Control Strategies as per the existing operation

rule curves.


Final Report 27

3.3.2 Model Outputs

The basic outputs of the MIKE 11 hydrodynamic model are discharges and water

levels in the main rivers and reservoirs. The model provides additional outputs like

flooded area at each cross section, and the total flooded area downstream. Outputs

can be obtained for any time steps. However, the frequency of the output has to be

compatible to the frequency of input data. Hydrographs at daily, hourly and 15

minutes may be produced once the RTDAS provides data at every 15 minutes.

3.3.3 Model Calibration

A detailed description of model calibration is given in the Model Development

Report (September 2012). Figures 3-9 to 3-12 show some sample calibration

results. It can be concluded that a satisfactory calibration of the Hydrodynamic

model has been achieved. When the model is used in real time flood forecasting,

then the data assimilation compensates for both amplitude and phase errors in

routing flood waves. In addition, more detailed data will enable fine tuning the

calibration and routing the runoff. This issue will be further addressed in the

RTSF&ROS testing and operation phase, when the RTDAS is producing useful and

reliable results.

Figure 3-9 Discharge Calibration at Narsinphur (Bhima – 313.116 km)- Blue

line: simulated, red line: observed)

26-7-2006 5-8-2006 15-8-2006 25-8-2006

0.0

2000.0

4000.0

6000.0

8000.0

[m 3̂/s] Narsinphur Discharge Time Series Discharge

Simulated

External TS 1

Observed


28 Final Report 28

Figure 3-10 Water level calibration at Narsingpur and Barur gauging stations -

(Blue line: simulated, red line: observed)

Figure 3-11 Water Level calibration of Panchganga at Ichalkaranji (black line:

simulated, blue line: observed)


Final Report 29

Figure 3-12 Discharge calibration of Mula-Mutha at Khamgaon (black line:

simulated, blue line: observed)

3.3.4 Model Applications

Identification of Critical River Reaches

The calibrated MIKE11 model has been used to simulate large historical floods as

well as with some probabilistic inflows to identify critical river reaches. Based on

information available from WRD as well from the historical model results, the alert

and warning values of discharge and water level are generated for further

validation. The model also generates flood map, which indicates the reaches which

have crossed the alert or danger levels for a particular event. This information is

integrated with the administrative boundaries as well as the inferences drawn from

satellite data. A Taluka level Flood Affected Map (Figure 3-13) has been prepared,

which shows that the Haveli Taluka (including Pune city) in Pune District,

Pandharpur Taluka (Including Pandharpur Town) in Solapur district, Miraj Taluka

(Including Sangli city) in Sangli district, Shirol and Gagan-Bawda in Kolhapur

disctrict are highly flood affected taluks. Maval and Daund Taluks in Pune district;

Karad in Satara district; Karvir and Harkalangale in Kolhapur district are

Moderately flood affected taluks. Shirur, Purandar, Baramati and Indapur in Pune

district; Madha, Mohol, Mangalvedhe, Solapur South and Akkalkot taluks in

Solapur district; Patan in Satara district; Shirala, Walwa and Palis taluks in Sangli

district; Shahunagari, Panhala and Radhanagari in Kolhapur district are Less Flood

affected taluks.

Once the RTDAS is in place, these maps can be refined further, if required during

the testing phase.


30 Final Report 30

Figure 3-13 Identification of critical river reaches with administrative boundaries

Figures 3-14 to 3-16 show longitudinal profiles of the river reaches with high flood

levels simulated for past flood event of 2006. Also inset are river cross –sections at

critical locations (chainages) illustrating bank overtopping at high floods. The

longitudinal profiles show clearly the critical river reaches where the high flood

level over tops the banks.


Final Report 31

Figure 3-14 L-S along Mula-Mutha showing bank overtopping

Figure 3-15 L-S along Bhima showing bank overtopping


32 Final Report 32

Figure 3-16 L-S along Krishna showing bank overtopping

Flood Mapping

Using the flood mapping facilities of MIKE11, a series of flood maps have been

generated in three flood prone areas: Pune, Sangli and Pandarpur. The recently

surveyed flood plain levels along with river cross sections have been used in the

flood mapping exercise.

Figures 3-17 shows simulated flood maps around Pune city during the floods of

August 2005. Figure 3-18 shows a simulated flood map for Pandarpur area in 2008.

The sample flood maps presented below show the capabilities of MIKE11 to

generate flood maps. However, it should be noted that the floods maps are

generated by the 1-dimensional model and are reasonably accurate when the flood

plain flooding is governed by river flooding. For a more accurate and detailed flood

risk mapping a 2-dimensional flood modelling and mapping tool is required.


Final Report 33

Figure 3-17 Model simulated flood map near Dattawadi in 2005

Figure 3-18 Pandarpur flood (2008)


34 Final Report 34

3.4 The Forecasting System

3.4.1 Introduction

The hydrological model maintains a quantitative memory of the water accumulated

in the catchments in the form of soil moisture, and ground water. This accumulated

water volume will be released as runoff to the main rivers during the succeeding

periods, simulated by the hydrological model. Converting the predicted

precipitation to runoff hydrographs, the model provides a quantitative response to

the predicted weather forecast.

The output from the model is fed into the MIKE 11 river model for forecasts.

Quantitative precipitation forecasts have large uncertainties for extended lead time

times, and the runoff becomes correspondingly uncertain when the lead time

exceeds a few days. Therefore, the flow/flood forecast in the RTSF&ROS refers to

short-term forecast up to three days in advance.

The short term forecasting model is similar to the hydrodynamic model. The

forecasting model uses rule operation instead of scheduled releases at the

reservoirs, and the data assimilation mode is activated.

The setup of the short term forecasting model implies that the model handles both

historical data and estimated future inflows and scheduled releases. The period

during which historical data are applied is termed the hindcast period, and the

period representing the future is termed the forecast period. Figure 3-19 illustrates

the concepts and steps of a short-term forecasting system.

Figure 3-19 Illustrations of a short-term forecasting system


Final Report 35

Another aspect of forecasting is Data Assimilation, which enables the model to

assimilate measured water levels and discharges into the model results during

hindcast. Corrections made in order to match simulated and measured results are

analysed and used to forecast the error that can be expected in the simulated results

for the near future. This error forecast increases the reliability of the forecast

results. Using data assimilation of discharges in the rivers (or water levels in

combination with stage:discharge relations) has two purposes. Firstly, assimilating

the data ensures that the correct amount of water is conveyed downstream during

the hindcast period. Secondly, the error forecast ensures that the recognised error

in the inflow is forecast into the near future, thereby improving the validity of the

inflow forecast. In this way the best inflow forecast to the reservoirs are achieved.

The required model inputs are:

Operation of reservoirs - rule operated meaning that in order to make

forecasts it is necessary to know which rules apply. For the hindcast

period measured discharge will be used. For the forecast period,

scheduled releases (or user defined releases) are used. A combined time

series will be supplied to the model by the system.

Information for data assimilation and error forecast - comprises

measured water levels and discharges that can improve the accuracy of

the forecasts. These will be provided in time series (Discharge

measurements at model boundaries will be assimilated in the hydrologic

model.)

Boundary inflows will be drawn from the database (NAM outputs

derived from weather forecasts and the RTDAS) and supplied to the

model as time series representing the inflow for both the hindcast and

forecast period.

3.4.2 Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF)

Many organizations both inside and outside of India are generating rainfall

forecasts with some lead time and spatial resolution. For this basin area, rainfall

forecast could be available from several sources: Indian Meteorological Department

(IMD), National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (NCMRWF), India,

National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), and Regional

Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia (RIMES) )

www.rimes.org. RIMES is an inter-governmental organisation based in Bangkok,

Thailand. A review was also made in the Inception report (December 2011).

Among them, in order to be able to use in a real time forecast with a lead time of 3

days and a good spatial resolution, rainfall forecast provided by RIMES and

NCRMWF has been selected.

RIMES in cooperation with NCMWRF produces rainfall, with 3 days lead time

with a spatial resolution of 9 km × 9 km grid and temporal resolution of 6 hours

using Numerical Weather (NWP) model.

Data is received as ASCII format for the study area with 9km X 9km grid as well as

a PDF. The RIMES Servers sends the 3-day forecasts automatically to a dedicated

E-mail address ([email protected]) every morning before 7 AM local time. A

procedure has been developed in RTFS&ROS to download the QPF automatically

from the RTSF gmail address and store in the model database for use in the forecast

http://www.rimes.org/

mailto:[email protected]


36 Final Report 36

operation. At the same time, the QPF is exported to the KBS data server. Also

forecasts of rainfall and other weather parameters may be downloaded on a daily

basis from the IMD’s website (www.imd.gov.in) so that alternative scenarios of

rainfall forecasts may be compared by the operator. The IMD website also provides

a link to satellite data

3.4.3 The Forecasting and Operation System

The real time forecasting and operation system is based on calibrated rainfall-runoff

and hydrodynamic models. The system works as a stand-alone Windows

application, which does not require in-depth knowledge of complicated models and

GIS applications. However, based on a very user friendly interface developed for

this project, it is possible to have full control on the on-line forecasting. The system

once configured may also run automatically. The forecasting system has also the

provision to run different scenarios in offline mode so that comparisons can be

made with historical floods forecasted on hindcast mode. The offline mode can also

be used during an interactive operational decision making. The setup is an open

system in which modifications of key parameters such as forecast locations, time

steps, warning levels etc., can easily be incorporated by a trained operator.

Figure 3-20 shows the User Interface of the operational forecasting system. The

Interface can be used to manage the most common activities in the daily operation

of a forecasting system.

Figure 3-20 User Interface for the operational forecasting system

http://www.imd.gov.in/


Final Report 37

The RTSF & ROS User Interface contains (referring to Figure 3-20):

A) Tools, selection boxes and status (left column)

B) An overview (as bitmap) of the model setup and stations included (upper

right)

C) Graphical and Tabular View (lower right)

Tools, selection boxes and status information

Following tools and settings are possible Selection of the Actual Model Setup in

Online or Offline mode

1) Selection of Model

2) Selection of Time of Forecast

3) Status line

4) Setup – configuration of Model setup in RTSF & ROS

5) RTSF & ROS batch Jobs

6) MIKE11 tools

7) View Flood Map

8) WEB page

9) Scenario management

10) Dissemination of Results

The RTSF & ROS Overview

The Overview shows, the river network, the flood status (warning level) for a

selected date at forecast locations on the river system (shown as coloured squares at

each forecasting location) and the accumulated catchment rainfall (shown as values

in grey squares) for a selected period in the modelled catchments.

Graphical and Tabular View

Graphs and tables can be selected from the map, when clicking on a station on a

map. It is possible to select between water level and discharge from the selection

box just above the graph to the left. Zoom facilities are available when right

clicking on the map or clicking on the button in the upper left corner. In the upper

right corner it is possible to select flood status for different time steps after Time of

Forecast.

The graphical and tabular view of catchment rainfall can be selected when clicking

on a number on the bitmap. The number represents the accumulated rainfall during

the period selected in the lower left corner of the graph. The accumulation period

represents hours before time of forecast (first selection box) up to hours after time

of forecast (second selection box). The tabular view shows the actual rainfall and

accumulated rainfall.

Similarly, reservoir status can be seen from the reservoir mode selected in the map.

The reservoir symbol indicates approximate percentage of fullness of a reservoir.

The graphical and tabular views show the reservoir level, inflow and outflow.

Online and Offline mode

RTSF & ROS can be applied in Online and Offline modes. When running RTSF &

ROS in Online mode, the Overviews are automatically updated as soon as a new

forecast is ready. Latest Time of Forecast is updated in (2), while the simulation


38 Final Report 38

status will appear in the Status box (3). When running in Offline mode it is possible

to load historical forecasts and test various scenarios.

Details of the RTSF&ROS are presented in the User Guide Version 2 (September

2012).

Detailed overview of results from the forecast simulation using MIKE VIEW, with

a predefined setup specified via the configuration editor. Figure 3-21 shows an

example, which include the river network, a longitudinal section along a selected

river, river cross section at a selected location and time series of discharge and

water level.

Figure 3-21 Detailed overview of MIKE11 results from a forecast simulation

3.4.4 Forecasts

Using the above described system, forecast of inflows to reservoir and then

corresponding outflows can be made. Figure 3-22 illustrates the forecast results.


Final Report 39

Figure 3-22 Example of inflow forecasts for 6,12,36 and 48 hours

3.4.5 Rainfall forecast scenario

The Rainfall Editor can be used to modify the rainfall to a catchment (or a group of

catchments) from the original simulation to test alternative rainfall events. The

rainfall time series is subdivided into user defined periods, where the rainfall editor

provides an overview of the accumulated rainfall within specified periods and has a

provision to change the values.

In Figure 3-23, periods for the last 24 hours up to time of forecast and the following

12, 24 and 48 hours into the forecasting period can be specified. The 122

catchments in the model setup have been grouped into 18 larger areas with similar

rainfall characteristics. The user can now change the original accumulated rainfall

with new estimations for each period – each value of the original catchment rainfall

time series will then be multiplied with the ratio between estimated and original

values.

Figure 3-23 Rainfall forecast editor


40 Final Report 40

4 RESERVOIR OPERATION SYSTEM

4.1 Introduction The deliverable under Task 4 is a reservoir operation guidance system based on stream

flow forecasts as produced by the RTSF&ROS described above. The simulation models of

RTSF&ROS are integrated with a suite of optimization tools for optimum operation of the

reservoirs both for the short-term operation during the flood season and for round the year

optimal water allocation.

Three sets of optimization exercises have been carried out for developing optimum

reservoir operation guidance system. The first set is the short term optimization, which is

aimed at providing an improved reservoir operation guidance during floods when an inflow

forecast is available from the RTSF&ROS. The recommended short term rule curve is a

switch from the long term rule curve established by WRD for the major reservoirs in the

Krishna and Bhima River basins. It has been demonstrated that using the short term

optimization of reservoir operation a considerable reduction in flood release can be

achieved during the forecast period without compromising on the storage at the end of the

forecast period. In a way, the reservoir state follows the prescribed rule curve at the end of

the optimization/forecast period.

The second type of optimization model developed is for long term reservoir operation

guidance system. The optimization system is developed for round the year water allocation

for irrigation and water supply considering power development.

The third type of optimization model developed is seasonal operation of the reservoirs to

minimise downstream flooding while considering the need of keeping the reservoirs full at

the end of the rainy season. The reservoir operation guidance derived from the second and

third types of optimization models are incorporated in the overall basin simulation model

(MIKE BASIN) for the entire Krishna and Bhima basins in Maharashtra. Illustrative

applications have been developed for typical hydrological years (dry, average and flood

years) based on historical data.

Reservoir operation often involves a large number of stakeholders with different

objectives, such as domestic and industrial water use, irrigation, flood control, hydropower

generation, and navigation. Thus, optimisation of reservoir operation is a complex, multi-

purpose optimization problem where balanced solutions between the often conflicting

objectives are required. In addition, operation of multiple reservoirs or other water supply

sources should be considered jointly, hence adding additional complexity to the

optimization. Traditionally, fixed reservoir rule curves are used for guiding and managing

the reservoir operation. These curves typically specify reservoir releases according to the

current reservoir level, hydrological conditions, water demands and time of the year.

Established rule curves, however, are often not very efficient for balancing the demands

from the different water users. Moreover, reservoir operation often includes subjective

judgments by the operators. Thus, there is a potential for improving reservoir operating

policies and small improvements can lead to large benefits.

For optimization of reservoir systems, procedures based on coupling simulation models

with numerical search methods have been developed. Traditionally, the simulation-

optimization problem has been solved using mathematical programming techniques such

as linear or non-linear programming. Application of these methods, however, puts severe

restrictions on the formulation of the optimisation problem with respect to description of

water flow in the system, and definition of control variables to be optimised and associated


Final Report 41

optimization objectives. Recently, procedures that directly couples simulation models with

heuristic optimization procedures such as evolutionary algorithms have been proposed

(Ngo et al., 2007). These methods have proven to be effective for optimisation of reservoir

systems (Pedersen, et al., 2007).

Details of the optimization systems are given in the Reservoir Operation System and

Communication Management Report (November 2012). Sample results are presented in

this Chapter.

4.2 Short Term Optimization

4.2.1 Methodology

The purpose of the short term optimization during floods is to assist in decision making in

situations where high inflows are forecasted to result in water levels above the guide curve

for the reservoir. The optimization will suggest release hydrographs that ensures that the

reservoir water level will comply with the guide curve at the end of the forecast period (3

days) and that the water level will be below the maximum allowed water level during the

whole forecast period. At the same time the release hydrographs will aim at minimizing

downstream peak flow. This purpose is believed to comply with WRD’s statements, as

described in the DAM Safety Manual, regarding rule curves quoted below:

“Guide curve is the target level planned to be achieved in a reservoir under

different probabilities of inflows and / or withdrawals during various periods. It

means that the reservoir level is to be maintained as per upper guide curve during

normal inflows. During the heavy floods, the normal reservoir operation schedule

should be switched over to the emergency flood moderation schedule. The

criterion for switching over is the occurrence of heavy to very heavy rainfall in

the catchments of the dam or the intimations of heavy to very heavy flows into the

reservoir. This switching over process should be well studied and implemented in

sub basin/basin existing in the state. During the emergency reservoir operation,

the reservoir levels are allowed to rise temporarily above upper guide curve but

below MWL for making flood absorption capacity to greater possible extent.”

In this Project, the MIKE 11 modelling system is adopted for simulating the flow in the

river system and reservoir operations. The structure operation module in MIKE 11 allows

implementation of complex control strategies, whereby reservoirs can be operated by

defining a number of different control strategies with various conditions. The use of

several control strategies makes it possible to simulate multi-purpose reservoirs, which

take into account a large number of objectives. The MIKE 11 model is combined with a

numerical optimization tool AutoCal (DHI, 2011) that is used for optimising different

control variables defined for the reservoir operation strategies. The optimisation tool

includes a general multi-objective optimization framework that searches for the set of non-

dominated or Pareto-optimal solutions according to the trade-offs between the various

objectives. The simulation-optimization procedure can be used in an off-line mode for

optimisation of reservoir operation rule curves using historical data. This operation can be

further improved in real-time by fine-tuning the reservoir releases using real-time and

forecast information. In this case, the MIKE 11 modelling and reservoir control system

uses weather forecasts to provide forecasts of reservoir inflows

This is done by combined use of a rainfall runoff model and a hydrodynamic model, both

running in real time forecast model, and a generic optimization tool. A two-step approach

has been implemented as illustrated in Error! Reference source not found.Figure 4-1.


42 Final Report 42

he first step corresponds to a standard forecast during which measured water levels and

discharges are assimilated into the model results during the hind cast period. This ensures

that the model complies with the real life situation at the time of forecast (TOF). During

the forecast period scheduled releases from the reservoirs are applied. Thus, the model will

predict water levels in the reservoirs for a situation in which no measures beyond the

already planned are taken to avoid too high reservoir water level.

Figure 4-1 Figure illustrating the two-step approach adopted for the optimization

A second step can now be performed in case the water levels predicted in the first

step do not comply with the guide curve. Here the effect on applying additional

releases is evaluated against the optimization objectives which are:

Comply with the guide curve at the end of the forecast period

Never exceed the maximum allowed water level

Mitigate peak discharge downstream

Spill as little water as possible

How this works is illustrated in Figure 4-2. The optimizer AutoCal suggests

different spill hydrographs. The consequences of applying these hydrographs are

evaluated using MIKE11. Selected results from MIKE11 (reservoir water levels

and downstream peak discharges) are evaluated against the targets and AutoCal

will adjust the suggested hydrographs.


Final Report 43

Figure 4-2 Figure illustrating the two-step approach adopted for the optimization

4.2.2 Example Applications

The optimization models are first applied for the major reservoirs in which flood

control is a major concern. The optimization models are tested for the flood events

during the monsoon in 2006. Then, the entire MIKE11 hydrodynamic model of the

Krishna-Bhima basin is run in optimization mode to see the effect of an integrated

reservoir operation.

Tests have been made on the optimization of the Ujjani Reservoir for a period

where spilling occurred. The results are presented and discussed below.

In Figure 4-3 a comparison is made between optimized and measured water level at

Ujjani Reservoir during a spilling event in 2006. It is apparent that optimization

utilizing an early warning of high inflow enables a better management of the

reservoir water level. Not only is it possible to avoid excessive exceedance of the

guide curve, it has also been possible to maintain a higher water level at the end of

the period.

495.5

495.7

495.9

496.1

496.3

496.5

496.7

496.9

497.1

497.3

497.5

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Ujjani reservoir

Optimized Water level

Guide Curve

Measured Water Level

Figure 4-3 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level with the guide

curve for the Ujjani Reservoir

When comparing the optimized and measured release during the test period (Figure

4-4), it is apparent that the amount spilled is considerably less than what happened


44 Final Report 44

during the event. This is also reflected in the downstream discharge at Pandharpur

(Figure 4-5). The peak discharge has been reduced from approximately 7,800 m3/s

to approximately 7,100 m3/s.

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured release at Ujjani reservoir

Optimized Release

Measured Release

Figure 4-4 Graph showing a comparison between optimized and measured

release at Ujjani Reservoir during 2006

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Optimized and measured discharge at Pandharpur

Optimized Discharge

Measured Discharge

Figure 4-5 Comparison of optimized and measured release at Pandharpur

The optimization has also been tested for Koyna Reservoir. The optimized water

level is compared with measured water level in Figure 4-6. It is apparent that better

compliance with the guide curve can be achieved that when the forecasted inflow is

taken into account when deciding about spilling. Figure 4-7 shows a comparison

between the optimized and the measured releases. It is seen that the peak discharge

is lowered from approximately 2500 m3/s to approximately 1500 m

3/s.


Final Report 45

652

653

654

655

656

657

658

659

660

13/07/2006 28/07/2006 12/08/2006 27/08/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Koyna Reservoir


Guide Curve


Figure 4-6 Graph comparing optimized and measured water levels at Koyna

Reservoir

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

13/07/2006 28/07/2006 12/08/2006 27/08/2006

Optimized and measured discharge at Koyna Reservoir

Optimized Discharge

Measured Discharge

Figure 4-7 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Koyna

Reservoir

For the Kadakwasla Complex, selected results are presented below. The water

levels for Panshet Reservoir, Temghar Reservoir and Warasgaon Reservoir are

depicted in Figure 4-8, Figure 4-9 and Figure 4-10, respectively. It is seen that the

optimization is able to maintain the water levels within acceptable limits. For

Temghar Reservoir it seems like the optimizer ensures that a larger amount of water

is stored and the end of the period. The optimized releases are compared with

measured releases in Figure 4-11, Figure 4-12 and Figure 4-13. For all three

reservoirs the optimization has lowered the peak discharges supporting the flood

mitigation purpose.


46 Final Report 46

I

627

628

629

630

631

632

633

634

635

636

637

18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Panshet Reservoir


Guide Curve


Figure 4-8 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level at Panshet

Reservoir

695

695.5

696

696.5

697

697.5

698

698.5

699

699.5

700

18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Temghar Reservoir


Guide Curve


Figure 4-9 Graph comparing optimized and measured water level at Temghar

Reservoir

631

632

633

634

635

636

637

638

639

640

18/07/2006 02/08/2006 17/08/2006 01/09/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured water level at Warasgaon Reservoir


Guide Curve


Figure 4-10 Graph comparing optimized and measure water level at Warasgaon

Reservoir


Final Report 47

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Comparison between optimized and measured release at Panshet Reservoir

Optimized Release

Measured Release

Figure 4-11 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Panshet

Reservoir

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Optimized and measured discharge at Temghar Reservoir

Optimized Discharge

Measured Discharge

Figure 4-12 Graph comparing optimized and measured releases from Temghar

Reservoir

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

26/07/2006 31/07/2006 05/08/2006 10/08/2006 15/08/2006 20/08/2006 25/08/2006

Optimized and measured discharge at Warasgaon Reservoir

Optimized Discharge

Measured Discharge

Figure 4-13 Graph comparing optimized and measured release from Warasgaon

Reservoir


48 Final Report 48

4.3 Long Term Optimization

4.3.1 Optimization of reservoir operation for flood season

Though, the reservoirs in Maharashtra are multipurpose including hydropower,

irrigation, domestic and industrial uses, they are not operated specifically for flood

control due to lack of adequate provision of flood cushion. However, they have

moderated flood peaks to considerable extent by proper reservoir operations. The

schedules of reservoir operation are based on rule curves derived from historical

hydro-meteorological data and experience gained. These methods are often not

adequate for establishing optimal operational decisions, especially for flood

management. Therefore, the objective function for deriving a season operation

guidance selected in this study is to minimize the maximum peak flood release over

the flood season. A set of constraints such as reservoir storage limits, daily water

balance, minimum downstream flow requirements, hydropower release

requirements etc. are applied to the optimization model.

4.3.2 Example applications

The flood year of 2006 has been selected for application of the optimization system

developed for operating the reservoirs during a flood season. It is also possible to

run the optimization from any time during the flood season to the end of the season,

using the current state of the system from observed data and assuming that the rest

of the season will follow a typical flood year, say 2006. In the future, if a higher

flood year occurs, then the optimization can be performed for that particular year.

The optimization results provided for various reservoirs below serve as a guideline

on how to operate a reservoir or the system of reservoir for a typical flood year. It

may be noted that the operational guidelines derived from optimization are only

slightly different from the prescribed rule curves. However, these guidance are of

indicative only because the operators cannot ensure that a particular year in hand

will be a flood year similar to 2006. If an optimization is carried out routinely from

the start of the monsoon, then the operation might improve as the season

progresses.

Khadakwasala complex

Figure 4-14 The Khadakwasala Complex

Figure 4-15 shows optimum releases as compared to historical releases during the

flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation of the reservoir for


Final Report 49

2006 would reduce the flood peak from 1,376 m3/s to 1,082 m

3/s on July 29 (Figure

4-16). It also shows that an optimization based release would avoid drastic changes

in the release pattern following the peak release on July.

Figure 4-15 Optimized Release from Khadakwasala system (for 2006 flood

season)

Figure 4-16 Detailed view of release pattern during 22 July to 11 August 2006

Figure 4-17 shows the optimized storage compared to the historic storage in the

Khadakwasala system for the flood season of 2006. It can be seen (from Figure 4-

18) that in order to reduce the peak release to an optimum level, the operation of the

reservoir has to deviate from the historical operation, which is derived from the rule

curve mainly during July 25 to August 8. As this is a temporary switch from the

long term rule curve to a flood operation guidance, it shows that the rule curve is a

followed during the remaining part of the season so that the reservoir is kept full at

the end of the season.

Results for other reservoirs are presented in the Reservoir Operation and

Communication Management Report (November 2012).

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

Riv

er

Rele

ase (

m^

3/s

)

Day from July 1

Historical Release (m^3/s) Optimized Release (m^3/s)

0

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400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Riv

er

Re

leas

e (

m^3

/s)

Historical release

Optimized Release


50 Final Report 50

Figure 4-17 Optimum Storage of Khadakwasala system for the flood season 2006

Figure 4-18 Detailed view of the Khadakwasala system storage during 25 July to

8 August 2006

4.3.3 Ujjani Reservoir

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79 82 85 88 91

Sto

rage

(MC

M)

Day from July 1

Historical Storage (MCM Optimal Storage (MCM)

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Sto

rage

(M

CM

)

Historical storage(MCM)

Optimum Storage(MCM)


Final Report 51

Figure 4-19 Optimized Release from Ujjani Dam (2006 flood year)

Figure 3-6 shows optimum releases from Ujjani Dam as compared to historical

releases during the flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation

of the reservoir for 2006 would reduce the flood peak by almost half thus reducing

flood damage downstream. It also shows that an optimization based release would

avoid drastic changes in the release pattern following the peak release on July.

Similarly, Figure 3-7 shows the corresponding storage resulting from the optimized

release. The storage comes back to the historical levels from 17th

August following

the rule curves.

Figure 4-20 Optimized Storage of Ujjani Reservoir (2006 flood season)

4.3.4 Pawana Reservoir

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

Riv

er

Re

lae

se (

m^3

/s)



52 Final Report 52

Figure 4-21 Optimized release from Pawana Dam (2006 flood season)

Figure 3-8 shows optimum releases from Pawana Dam as compared to historical

releases during the flood season of 2006. It can be seen that an optimized operation

of the reservoir for 2006 would reduce the flood peak from 376 m3/s to 226 m

3/s,

thus reducing flood damage downstream. Figure 3-9 shows the corresponding

storage resulting from the optimized release. The storage comes back to the

historical levels from 25th

August following the rule curves.

Figure 4-22 Optimized Storage in Pawana Reservoir (2006 flood season)

4.4 Optimization of Reservoir Operation for Long-term Water

Management An optimization methodology has also been developed for optimized operations of

the reservoir system considering round the year water resources management. An

economic optimization to find out an optimum cropping pattern in a command is

developed first. Then reservoir water allocation is optimized to satisfy the water

requirement for the optimal cropping pattern keeping other water allocation as

constraints. Although the reservoirs are multipurpose, the competition is mainly

between irrigation and water supply (domestic and industrial). In almost all the

reservoirs considered, water released for hydropower goes for irrigation use. In

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92

Riv

er

Re

leas

e (

m^3

/s)

Day from July 1


0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92

Sto

rage

(M

CM

Day from July 1

Historical Storage (MCM) Optimized Storage (MCM)

Max Storage at 275 MCM


Final Report 53

Koyna dam, the release to the powerhouse below the dam goes for irrigation.

Releases to large hydropower plants on the west side flow out of the basin. In

principle, the decision between releases to water supply and irrigation is not taken

as a multi-objective problem. It is rather taken as a quota priority. Different types of

formulations have been considered to optimize the water allocation between

irrigation and water supply. A set of water supply factors are used for supplying

water to major urban areas in the basin. An iterative optimization-simulation

process is used to optimize the long-term water allocation from all the reservoirs in

the in the basin.

The optimization models have been applied for three typical years namely an

average year (2001), a dry year (2003) and a flood year (2006) from historical data

and long term simulations carried out using the MIKE BASIN model developed for

the entire Krishna-Bhima Basin. Table 4.1 lists the optimization scenarios are

presented. Detailed results, which provide a guidance to long-term reservoir

operation are provided in the Report “Reservoir Operation System and

Communication Management System (November 2012).” Some sample results for

selected reservoirs are presented in the following sections.

Table 4.1 Optimization Scenarios

Scenario

No.

Year Reservoir operation

optimization considering

Water supply target

constraints (supply

factor)

1 Dry Optimal cropping pattern 100 %

(no reduction)

2 80 %

3 70 %

4 Historical supplies 100 %

5 80 %

6 70 %

7 Flood Optimal cropping pattern 100 %

8 80 %

9 70 %


11 80 %

12 70 %

13 Average Optimal cropping pattern 100 %

14 80 %

15 70 %


17 80 %

18 70 %


54 Final Report 54

Figure 4-23 shows optimized irrigation releases form the Khadakwasala reservoir

sysetm (operation of Khadakwasala, Warasgaon, Panchet and Temgher) for a dry

year considering water supply factors of 100%, 80% and 70% respectively.

WS =100% D

WS=80% D

Figure 4-23 Optimal irrigation release from the Khadakwasala complex for

optimal cropping pattern (dry year: WS factors: 1 – 100%, 2- 80%, 3- 70%)

WS = 70%

-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1 3 5 7 9 11131517192123252729313335

Re

leas

e M

CM

10 Day Intertval

Opt. Irrigation Supply

Hist. Irrigation Supply

-

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Re

leas

e M

CM

10 Day interval



-

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35

Re

leas

e M

CM

10 Day Interval




Final Report 55

The optimized irrigation release is for satisfyting the irrigation requirement of an

optimum cropping pattern that will yield a maximum crop production benefit from

the command area. It can be seen that an optimum operation of the reservoirs

results into a much higher irrigation releases than compared with historical

irrigation releases from the same reservoir. The intergated oprimization-simulation

tool is incorporated in the river basin modelling system installed at BSD and the

Control room, so that WRD can use for making decisions in the future operational

planning of the reservoir system.

4.5 Integrated Operation of Reservoirs

The optimum operation systems developed for the major reservoirs are simulated in

the MIKE BASIN model for the entire basin. Figure 4-24 shows the MIKE BASIN

model developed in the two basins (Interim Report, March 2012). Figures 4-25 and

4-26 show the schematics of the integrated reservoir systems in the model.

Figure 4-24 The Krishna-Bhima MIKE BASIN Model


56 Final Report 56

Figure 4-25 Schematic of the Integrated Reservoir System of Bhima Basin

Figure 4-26 Schematic of the Integrated Reservoir System of Krishna Basin

The following three typical years are considered for simulation of integrated

operation:

(1) 2001-02 as an average year,

(2) 2003-04 as a dry year and

(3) 2006-07 as Flood (wet) year.

Two optimum irrigation release scenarios are used, which have been obtained from

optimisation results discussed in the previous sections.

(1) D1: Optimized irrigation release for satisfying the demand of optimum

cropping pattern


Final Report 57

(2) D2: Optimized irrigation release based on Historical/Existing irrigation

schedules

The MIKE BASIN simulation results in Figure 4-27 and Figure 4-28 show that for

both the average year (2001-02) and dry year (2003-04), if the irrigation demands

have to be satisfied from the Pawana reservoir with minimising the irrigation

deficits, the reservoir will have to be depleted more compared to historical

operation which would result into larger irrigation deficits. For the Wet year

(2006-07), however, there is not much difference between the optimal releases and

historical releases as depicted in Figure 4-29.

Figure 4-27 Historical Water Level Comparison of Pawana Reservoir with Water

Levels after Optimized Releases (for Average Year 2001-02)


Levels after Optimized Releases (for Dry Year 2003-04)

580

585

590

595

600

605

610

615

10

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/01

01

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l(m

)

Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Water Level

580

585

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595

600

605

610

615

Wat

er

Leve

l (m

)

Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Level


58 Final Report 58


Levels after Optimized Releases (for Wet Year 2006-07)

Figure 4-30 shows the flow situation in the entire basin with optimized releases for

irrigation while satisfying water supply and keeping the hydropower demands

intact, for the wet year 2006-07. This type outputs from a combined optimization-

simulation exercise will be quite useful for analysing the flow situation in the entire

basin any time during the operation of the system. It is also possible to view the

results animated for any given.

585

590

595

600

605

610

615

Wat

er

Leve

l (m

)

Water Level D1 Water Level D2 Historical Level


Final Report 59

Figure 4-30 Simulation Result for Optimized Releases for the integrated Krishna-

Bhima Basin System, showing flows (m3/s) in river reaches


60 Final Report 60

4.6 Reservoir Operation Guidance System The reservoir guidance system is presented in the RTSF&ROS Model Development

Report (October 2012) whereas, updated features are incorporated in the Reservoir

Operation system and Communication Management System Report (November

2012). The system has been installed at the BSD and has been tested for reservoir

operational scenarios. Trial operation in real time is expected to be carried out

during the monsoon of 2013, when the real time data will be available from the

RTDAS being implemented by WRD.

The Reservoir Operation can be performed via the Reservoir Operation Module of

the RTSF&ROS User Interface (Figure 4-31).

Figure 4-31 User Interface for the operational forecasting system and reservoir

operation system

The tool is used to show the conditions for each reservoir included in the model

setup and it can also be used for scenario simulations. The page consists of a

Grahical View, as shown in Figure 4-32 (water level left axis and inflow & outflow

right axis), a Tabular View (timeseries of inflow, outflow and reservoir levels) and

a Reservoir Overview on the bottom of the page.

Figure 4-32 shows an example for the operation of the Warasgaon Reservoir. The

graph shows a 3 days period (1 day before Time of forecast, indicated with a grey

vertical line and the forecasting period of 2 days). From Figure 4-32 it appears that

the inflow (red line) is higher than outflow (green line) until ‘2006-07-30 03:00’, when


Final Report 61

the outflow exceeds the inflow. The water level (blue line) increases, therefore in

the first part of the simulation, while it decrease when the ouflow eceeds the inflow.

Figure 4-32 Example of Reservoir Operation Module (Warasgaon)

4.7 Scenario Management The scenario management tools allow the user to run the forecast model with

different data and compare the results from scenario simulations with the original

simulation. Simulation of scenarios is activated when running the operation system

in an offline mode. After finishing a scenario simulation, the scenario results can be

archived, which can be loaded later for further assessment. The scenario

management tools also include facilities to disseminate the scenarios to the WEB

Portal.

The Reservoir Operation Scenario manager can be used for operating reservoirs

with user defined releases, including those derived from optimization.

4.7.1 Reservoir operation scenarios

The reservoir operation module can be used to specify user defined releases from

the reservoirs to test alternative reservoir operations and releases of water from the

reservoirs.

As an example, a user defined release of 500 m3/s has been specified for a period of

12 hours for the Warasgaon reservoir as shown in Figure 3-33. To run this scenario

the changes made are saved and a new simulation is started with the user defined

release.


62 Final Report 62

In Figure 4-33, the figure to the left shows the specification of user defined releases

(dark green bar), while the figure to the right shows the result of the scenario

simulation (light green curve, calculated spilling).

Figure 4-33 Example of reservoir operation scenario (Warasgaon)

After pressing the refresh button it is possible to inspect the effect of changes on the

downstream stations. Figure 4-34 shows a comparison of the water level in the

Khadakwasla reservoir (blue curve: original, black curve: with user defined

release).

Figure 4-34 Viewing results of reservoir operation scenarios


Final Report 63

5 COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION

MANAGEMENT SYSTEM

5.1 Flow/Flood Warning Reports and Dissemination A variety of flow/flood warning reports and messages are proposed to be

disseminated to concerned authority, organisation and communities. Also a variety

of dissemination mechanisms are developed.

5.1.1 RTSF&ROS Website

A website of the RTSF&ROS project has been developed (Figure 5-1). The

Website may be hosted in a commercial server or at the mail server provided at the

Operational Control Room. However, for efficiency of access, it is recommended

that Operational Control Room should have the facility of high speed internet

connection. The pages are divided into the following standard views:

Home: The Home Page shows the overall view and contents of the Website

About Us: The About Us Page provides information linked to WRD offices

and the Basin Simulation Division and the Operation Control Room.

RTSF&ROS Project: This Page provides a brief about the RTSF&ROS

Project, its objectives and outputs

Alerts and Warnings: This Page provides current warnings and alerts for

quick look, which are updated every day (or whenever decided by the

authority)

Contact Us: This Page presents the contact details of responsible officals of

WRD, BSD and the Operational Control Room

Feedback: This Page guides the users of the Website to share their views or

provide feedback to the information produced via their E-mail. The E-mail is

received to a dedicated E-mail address, which may be changed by WRD

during actual implementation.

The Contents of the Website may be viewed by browsing the following Pages:

The Knowledge Base Page: It provides a brief description of the

Krishna-Bhima knowledge Base. It also has a provision of remote

login for authorized user, which may be implemented by WRD later.

The Modelling System Page: This page provides a brief description

of the modeling tools used in the RTSF&ROS, with reference and

links to the provider of the modeling software.

The Krishna-Bhima Online Page: This is the key portal on which all

the on-line information is available for dissemination. The

information includes rainfall, discharge, water levels and reservoir

situation for current and for the forecast period, currently set as 72


64 Final Report 64

hours. The On-line Page is designed as a standalone Web Portal,

which may be hosted in a separate server.

Reports and Maps Page: This Page provides access to all the reports and

maps, especially flood maps, which may be historical, current or forecasts

produced by the mode. The reports are uploaded by the administrator as

decided by WRD authority. The updated maps are also uploaded by the

administrator whenever desired by the authority.

Important links: This Page guides the user to Web links (Websites),

which are relevant to weather forecasting (national and international

resources centers), and other relevant Government sites.

Hidden to unauthorized users is a Page for the Web administrator or an authorized

official at the Operational Control Room. The features of Web administration are:

Admin Login Page: The administrator can login to the Website with an

authorized password. This allows the administrator to upload and update

Reports/Maps and Alerts/Warnings in the Website.

Admin forms for updates of Alerts & Warnings: These forms are

used by the administrator for day-to-day uploading and updating the

Alerts and Warnings. During a severe flood situation, the alerts and

warnings may be updated more frequently based on real time data

and/or the results of the flood forecasting model.

Figure 5-1 RTSF&ROS Website

Once the RTSF&ROS system is in trail operation from June 2013, the usefulness

of the Website may further be carried out by WRD and refinement, if any, may be


Final Report 65

done easily. Training has been given to BSD officers on the use and updating of

the Website, so that they are fully familiar with all the day-to-day updating

features.

5.1.2 Communication WEB Portal

All results from the forecast simulations are presented on a WEB Portal. The

WEB display of station status takes place via Google Maps, with all Google Map

facilities like zooming to street level and provision to show data on satellite

images, road maps and on terrain maps. From the Google Map it is possible to

watch station status at preselected time steps and to select a graphical view of a

selected time series clicking on the map. The WEB Page has provision for display

of four different data types: discharge, water level, precipitation and data from

reservoir (water levels, inflow and outflow)

The web portal will be a part of the overall information communication

management system. Two different sizes of WEB portals have been developed:

WEB Page for PC: The PC version (large screen) includes provision for viewing

all the four different data types described above. Figure 5-2 shows an example of

results presented on Google Map. Each station is coloured according to the actual

flood status, for example:

Light blue: Below normal level

Dark blue: Above normal level

Yellow: Warning level

Red: Alert Level

The alert levels have been developed from analysing historical data and based on

ground conditions.


66 Final Report 66

Figure 5-2 The Krishna-Bhima WEB Portal (PC version) for status and forecast

Figure 5-3 shows the results presented in a WEB Bulletin for the forecasted discharges along the rivers and inflow forecasts to reservoirs.


Final Report 67

Figure 5-3 WEB Bulletin showing flow forecasts

WEB Page for Mobile Devices: A compressed WEB portal has been prepared for

dissemination of results to mobile devices. The display can be used for

iPhone/iPad/Android or other devices supporting pixel resolutions from 320x480 up

to 640x640 pixels. The mobile WEB Page has provision for selecting three different

data types (discharge, reservoirs and rainfall). The upper part of the WEB Page

shows the station status presented on Google Maps (including the normal Google


68 Final Report 68

Maps features like zooming and selection of different maps). The lower part of the

WEB page shows selected graph (when clicking on the map), where it is possible to

zoom in and out and to see the data at selected time steps in a tabular view.

Figure 5-4 shows examples of forecast results in a Mobile WEB Page for the

Krishna-Bhima system. The three displays refer to discharge, reservoirs and rainfall.

Figure 5-4 Example from the Mobile WEB Page: left- discharge time series,

middle- reservoirs, right- rainfall

5.1.3 Flood Warning Reports/Messages

Table 5.1 shows a category of warning messages for dissemination through a specific

medium.

Table 5.1 Dissemination of flood warning

Message

category

Message

dissemination

by

Message dissemination to Message generation

1 SMS alerts List of mobile phone numbers

of selected WRD officials,

Maharashtra State Government

officials, Divisional

Commissioner, District

Collectors, district disaster

management nodal officers

(RDC),and any other

Automatically

generated for the day

and time of forecast

update from the

RTSF&ROS system

as soon as the forecast

reaches the specified


Final Report 69

individuals as decided by

WRD. (the list can be updated

by the operator of the

RTSF&ROS for current and

future use).

warning level.

Specific warning

messages can also be

entered by the

operator (Figure 5.18)

2 E-mail List of WRD and other

Government officials, relevant

organisations, NGOs, central,

state and local level disaster

management agencies, any

other interested

individuals/organisations who

request flood warning

information via the feedback

system implemented in the

RTSF&ROS website.

Automatically

generated for the day

and time of forecast

update from the

RTSF&ROS system

as soon as the forecast

reaches the specified

warning level.

Specific warning

messages can also be

entered by the

operator (Figure 5.18)

3 Fax List of high level state

Government offices

(Mantralaya, Mumbai, WRD

offices) or district /

subdivisional offices where E-

mail service is not readily

available.

The daily flood

warning report

prepared by the duty

officer is printed and

faxed.

4 Courier Senior officials of WRD and

Mantralaya Mumbai

Daily, weekly,

monthly, seasonal

(annual) flood

outlook reports to be

produced by BSD and

delivered .

5 Website Public All the information as

described above will

be available in the

RTSF&ROS website

with relevant links

Figure 5-5 shows the dissemination tool from the RTSF&ROS User Interface, in

which a number of mobile phones and E-mail addresses can be entered, updated and

saved. The warning and alert message can then be sent to the specified list by

pressing the “send” button. The message provides the WEB link for detailed

forecasts and waning information.


70 Final Report 70

Figure 5-5 Sample Warning Message for SMS alert and E-mail

Figures 5-6 and 5-7 show sample flood warning report formats for dissemination.


Final Report 71

Figure 5-6 Flow/flood warning report format (Krishna)


72 Final Report 72

Figure 5-7 Flow/flood warning report format (Bhima)

Krishna & Bhima River Basins RTSF & ROS

Final Report 73

6 CAPACITY BUILDING

6.1 Introduction The goal of Capacity building is to ensure that by the end of the project WRD has a

self sustaining team operating and maintaining the Real Time Streamflow Forecast

and Reservoir Operation System (RTSF&ROS), with a strong internal structure,

and links to external organisations with whom WRD can share experience, impart

to and draw on external knowledge. As a process of needs analysis, a review of the

existing organisations and institutional arrangement and training requirement was

made in the Inception Report (December 2011).

6.2 Trainings Conducted Under the project regular and intensive training activity was taken up right from the

beginning of the project covering various subjects. The trainings were conducted

by International and National experts in their respective field of expertise.

Geographic Information System (GIS) along with use of remote sensing data has

emerged as a powerful tool for handling spatial and non-spatial geo-referenced data

for preparation and visualization of inputs and outputs, and for integrating with

hydrological and hydrodynamic models. To understand the capabilities of remote

sensing and GIS, trainings on Remote sensing & GIS and its application to water

resources were organised.

As the basics of hydrological and hydraulic and modelling approach in these fields

are immensely important to this project, the trainings on introduction to modelling,

Open Channel Hydraulics, Hydrology, Rainfall-runoff modelling and River Basin

modelling were conducted.

No model is useful without the good data sets and no data set is used efficiently

without the relevant model. The input data sets for the modelling cover range of

data including time series data of hydrological and climatic parameters,

topographical data including the river cross sections, GIS data sets, the data related

to all hydraulic structures, the users, their demands etc. The good part of training

period was devoted to make these data sets ready for the modelling. This also

included the training on Global Positioning System with field exercises.

Emphasis was also given on hands-on-training, including exercises on MIKE 11

and MIKEBASIN packages which form the backbone of the project. MIKE 11 is a

user friendly, fully dynamic, dimensional modelling tool for the detailed analysis,

design, management and operation of both simple and complex river systems.

MIKE 11 is used in the project for short term forecasting. Hence continued sessions

of MIKE 11 trainings were conducted. MIKEBASIN is a river basin modelling

tool, which is used for the optimal water allocation for planning as well as long

term forecasting. Exposure was given to officers on MIKEBASIN software. An

introduction was also given to optimisation tools in the short term and long term

forecasting.

The Knowledge Base System (KBS) is developed and installed to store the spatial

and non-spatial data sets including historical and real time data as well as the

RTSF & ROS Krishna and Bhima River Basins

74 Final Report

simulation results from models. The KBS provides many tools to analyse the time

series and GIS data. The officers are given training on Knowledge Base System

(KBS).

The ultimate aim of the project is to run the forecasting system in operational mode

to generate the advance warnings and alerts. The user friendly forecasting system

developed in RTSF&ROS is capable of running in an on-line mode and also in an

off-line mode to generate different scenarios. The officers are trained to run the

forecasting system, which they did on a trial basis during the monsoon period of

2012.

Appendix A provides a detailed list of trainings conducted during the project. In

addition to these training activities, three presentations on Flood Forecasting as

well as the on forecasting using RTSF&ROS for Krishna & Bhima basins were

given to the Officers of HP and MERI at Nashik.

6.3 International Study Tours

As per the conditions of contract DHI had organized international study tours in

Europe and USA for senior officers as a part of capacity building programme. The aim of the study tour was to give exposure to the officials and to observe the operational inflow forecasting & decision support in these countries. A group of 4

Senior Officials visited Europe during 3-10 June, 2012 and another group of 5

officials visited USA during 14-25 June, 2012. Summary reports of the two study

tours as prepared by the WRD teams are given below.

6.3.1 Study tour to Europe

The Water Resources Department nominated five officers for this study tour to

Europe to visit Denmark, Austria & Germany, which included Shri. Ekanath B.

Patil, Principal Secretary (WR) Water Resources Department, Mantralaya,

Mumbai; Shri. H. T. Mendhegiri, Chief Engineer (WR) & Joint Secretary,Water

Resources Department, Mantralaya, Mumbai; Shri. C. A. Birajdar, Chief Engineer

(SP), Water Resources Department, Pune; Dr. P. K. Pawar, Executive Engineer,

Hydro-meteorological Data Processing Division, Nashik and Shri. J. M. Shaikh,

Executive Engineer, Irrigation Project Division, Nagpur. However, Shri. Ekanath

B. Patil, Principal Secretary (WR), could not participate in the study as his presence

was required in an urgent and important Government work in Mantralaya, Mumbai.

Mr. Gregers Jorgensen, Web based Modeller & Forecasting Expert of DHI,

Denmark coordinated the study tour in Europe. Ms Silvia Matz, Team Leader,

Forecast System, DHI WASY, Germany provided support as a resource person for

the tour.

The visit to DHI Head office, Horsholm, Copenhagen, Denmark was organized on

4th June 2012. Dr. Jacob Host Madsen, Director, Dr. Kim Wium Olesen, Head of

Water Resources Department and Mr. Gregers Jorgensen were available for

conducting the study visit to DHI. Worldwide applications of state-of-the-art

modelling systems for water resources & flood management including flood

mapping, flood, forecasting, modelling & web based water resources information

management were presented. A visit to hydraulic laboratory & test facilities


Final Report 75

including a physical model for coastal area erosion of East of American coast was

organised. The radar system to forecast rainfall for Copenhagen city installed at

DHI was also shown to the visitors.

The officials left for Vienna, Austria on 5th June, 2012 and a tour to visit Danube

river complex was arranged. Officials observed the measures taken to avoid

flooding the city by constructing a parallel river stream/channel to divert flood

water due to snow melt, which is also used for navigation purpose.

The participants visited International Forecasting Center, Graz, Austria on 6th June,

2012. Mr. Schatzl Robest from hydrological forecasting unit of Department of

Steiermark Schee Loudesre Giesnug, welcomed the team & explained the

forecasting system. An automated river forecasting system is working in three

different basins in Styria, namely Mur, Raab & Enns rivers. The forecasting system

is based on MIKE 11, similar to the system being implemented in Krishna & Bhima

river basins in Maharashtra. Field visit to “Kainach Lieboch” station on a tributary

of Mur was taken up to observe real time data collection.

Visit to the Flood Forecasting Department ARSO (Meteorological Office), Ljubljana in Slovenia was organised on 7th June, 2012 where the flood forecasting upgrade for the Slovenian rivers Sava & Soca was presented. ARSO (Meteorological Office of Slovenia) in cooperation with DHI, Denmark, has developed “FLOOD WATCH”, a user friendly decision support system for flood forecasting. Field visit to river

gauge station on Sava river near Ljubljana city was arranged to study the setup of a

new automatic telemetric network and measurement techniques.

The officials visited Munich, Germany on 8th June, 2012. Miss. Silvia Matz, made

presentation on flow forecasting system for hydro-power projects & river water

quality in Germany. Forecast model E-Watch developed for forecast in DACH

areas in Germany was explained. It was initially developed for flood forecast &

Figure 6-1 WRD officials at the Hydrological Unit, Ljubljana


76 Final Report

now is being used for energy forecast. During the afternoon session, a visit to

Danube river system was organised after which, the study tour programme was

completed

6.3.2 Study tour to USA

The study tour to USA (14 – 25 June 2012) was organized by DHI as a part of the

capacity building activities of the Project with an objective to obtain an overview of

latest technologies real time streamflow forecasting, acquire a sound understanding

of state-of-the-art solutions to water resources management, and specifically to

multi-purpose reservoir management. The officers namely Mr. D.D.Bhide, Director

General, MERI, Nashik, Mr. H.K. Gosavi, Chief Engineer, Planning and

Hydrology, Nashik, Mr. R.B.Ghote Chief Engineer & Chief Administrator

(CADA), Aurangabad, Mr. R.N.Thakare, Superintending Engineer, Vigilance Unit,

Nagpur and Mr. D.A.Bagade, Executive Engineer, Basin Simulation Division,

Pune were nominated by Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources

Department, Mantralaya.

On request of DHI the tour was assisted and conducted by Mr. Carter Borden,

Senior Hydrologist, University of Idaho, Boise, Idaho, USA, who acted as the

resource person and tour director.

After arriving San Fancisco on 14th June, the team moved to Sacramento, the

capital city of California State for a halt and discussed the study tour program with

tour organiser. On June 15, the team went to the Bay Delta Tour sponsored by

California Department of Water Resources. For this Bay Delta tour, team was

accompanied by Mr. Micheal Miller of California Department of Water Resources

and Martina Koller, Staff Environmental Scientist, Delta Science Program. The

Delta of the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers is California’s unique and valuable

resource and an integral part of California’s water system. It receives runoff from

over 40% of State’s land area and is the major collection point for water that serves

more than 25 million people, two-thirds of State’s population. Agricultural, urban,

industrial, environmental, and recreational interest have a vital stake in the Delta

and have a complex inter relationships. The Delta provides habitat for many species

of fish, birds, mammals, and plants.

Photographs of Bay Delta Tour California State


Final Report 77

Daily Decision of river releases, Trinity diversions, delta exports and San Luis

Operations is based on process which accounts data evaluated (delta water quality,

delta outflow, river flow, river temperatures, Energy, fishery status and storage

targets) in coordination with Department of Water Resources, Corps of Engineers,

National Weather Service, Fish and Wildlife, Department of Fish and Game,

National Marine Fisheries, Western Area Power Administration and local agencies.

Non controllable factors like forced outages, air temperatures, emergency

operations, tides, winds, precipitation etc.

Overview of California state water project: Office of the State Engineer established

with appointment of William Hammond Hall in 1878. California state water project

is the largest state-built and operated multipurpose water and power system in

USA. The 701 miles of canals and pipelines provide drinking water for 25 million

people and irrigation for 750000 acres of farmland. The SWP (State Water Project)

also provides power generation; recreation, flood protection, and helps in maintain

delta water quality. The SWP includes 770 ft high, Oroville dam and one of main

source of hydropower. Number of storage facilities are 34. Total reservoir storage is

7.2 cubic kilometres. Prominent projects are California aqueduct with canal 33.5 m

width, 10 m deep and capacity 13100 cfs, construction of delta pumping facilities,

south bay facilities, Edmonton pumping plant having highest lift per volume in the

world with single lift of 1926 feet and volume of 4480 cfs.

On 16th June, the team saw San Francisco Bay-Delta Model at Bridge way

Sausalito, CA. Mrs. Linda Holm, Park Ranger gave in brief discussed the critical

issues of Bay-Delta. It is a three dimensional model of the San Francisco Bay and

Sacramento/San Joaquin Delta. It was built in 1957 by the U.S. Army Corps of

Engineers as a scientific tool to test the impact of proposed changes to the Bay and

related waterways. It helps in interpreting the critical missions of the Corps in

environment, navigation, and flood control throughout the watershed. The

simulated tidal action and currents in the Bay Model change every few minutes and

can create a 24-hour tidal cycle in 14.9 minutes. The team studied the model in

detail.

On June 18th, the team visited the Real Time Data Acquisition System of Oroville-

Wyandotte Irrigation District Watershed Data Centre and Bubbler System at Sly

Creek Reservoir. Mr. Mark Heggli, World Bank Consultant and an Instrumentation

specialist guided the team. The system of twenty five telemetry hydro

meteorological stations is installed in the valley. The different equipments like

receiver, antenna, servers, workstations etc were installed at real time data centre. It

was possible to observe the data of nearly 1000 stations of the continent. The

details were discussed in detail and then team proceeded to visit Bubbler System at

Sly Creek Reservoir. The Sly Creek reservoir mainly produces hydroelectricity.

The bubbler system was installed on the left flank of the reservoir. Small gauge

house building was built to accommodate bubbler system with data logger. The

equipment were installed in 2010 and were working satisfactorily. System measures

Reservoir water level at an interval of an hour and transmits this data to the data

centre. Team members also had a fruitful interaction on INSAT, VSAT mode of

transmission, instrumentation with the instrumentation specialist.


78 Final Report

Photographs of Visit to Bubbler System installation at Sly Creek Reservoir

On June 19, the team visited the Napa County Flood Control and Water

Conservation District. The Napa county flood control authority welcomed the

delegation and had a presentation explaining history of Napa Flooding, funding

problems for flood control works, peoples participation, flood/river training works.

Rick Thomasser, Julie Blue Lucida, P.E. Flood Project Manager and Lindsey of

California Water Resources Department participated in the discussion. The Napa

river runs some 89 km from Mount St. Helena to San Pablo Bay and drains a

watershed of 1100 Sq Km. The average annual flow of the Napa river is about 37

cumecs through the populated centre of the city of Napa. During a 100 year flood,

the flow increases to an estimated 1200 cumecs to 1300 cumecs. Napa valley is

inundated on regular basis for thousands of years. The river is prone to seasonal

flooding from November through April month. Some 21 serious floods have been

recorded from 1862 to till date. The most serious recent floods occurred in 2005,

1997, 1995 and 1986. The federal government first authorised the preliminary

examination and survey in 1934. In 1944 recommended channel improvement and

construction of dam on Conn Creek. In 1948 water conservation reservoir namely

Lake Hennessy was created by building a dam on Conn Creek. This dam did not

solve the problem. In 1995, Corps offered a plan; enlarging the river channel and

constraining the river within that channel. In 1997, living river design was adopted.

Work on the Napa creek portion started in Nov 2010. This portion of the project

was undertaken to control potential flooding in an area along Napa Creek between

Jefferson street and the Napa river in downtown Napa. Removal of existing vehicle

bridges, installations of new channels and reshaping of the creeks bank are the main

activities. Team had a walkthrough for observing the flood control works. Team

visited Vineyards in the Napa valley and also visited University of Berkley.

On June 21, after arriving New York, the team travelled to visit Robert Moses

Niagara Hydroelectric Power Station in Lewiston, New York near Niagara fall. The

place is about 650 miles away from New York. On June 22, they observed the

Niagara Hydroelectric Power Station. The Hydroelectric Power Plant diverts water

from Niagara river above Niagara falls and returns the water into the lower portion

of the river near lake Ontario. It utilizes 13 generators at an installed capacity of

2525 megawatts (MW). In 1957 the United States congress approved the project

and construction began. The New York Power Authority created a man-made 7.7

Sq. Km, 83 Million Cubic meter upper reservoir which stores water for day time

use through a tunnel from a point upstream on the Niagara river. The opposite

boundary of this fore bay is another dam. This dam is part of the 240 MW Lewiston

Pump generating plant which houses 12 electrically powered pumps that can move


Final Report 79

water to another higher storage reservoir behind this second dam. At night a

substantial fraction 2300 cubic meter/second of the water in the Niagara river to the

lower reservoir by two 210 m tunnels. The normal flow of water volume flowing

over the Horseshoe falls is approximately 100000 cubic feet per second. Peak flow

over Horseshoe falls recorded by Ontario Hydro has been 225000 cubic feet per

second. By International agreement Canadians draw 56500 cubic feet per second &

Americans draw 32500 cubic feet per second of water. Electricity generated in the

Moses plant is used to power the pumps to push water into the reservoir behind the

Lewiston dam. The water is pumped at night because demand for electricity is

much lower than during the day. When electricity demand is high, water is released

from the upper reservoir through generators in the Lewiston dam. The same water

flows into the lower reservoir, where it falls again through the turbine of Moses

plant. This arrangement is called pumped storage hydroelectricity.

6.3.3 International training (Proposed)

It is proposed to organise a one-week training by international experts to about 16

technical officers of WRD to enhance concepts and skills on modelling, forecasting

and operation of water resources systems. The training is planned to be held in

Pune in November 2013

DHI has contacted the Asian Institute of Technology (AIT) in Bangkok Thailand

for conducting the proposed training. The Geoinformatics Center (GIC) -

http://www.geoinfo.ait.ac.th/ of AIT has expertise in conducting such training. GIC

has also developed expertise in advanced GIS and satellite based technologies in

assessing flood and drought risk in many countries and has conducted training

courses for Government agencies of many countries in Asia. AIT (www.ait.asia) is

an intergovernmental organisation, which is also supported by the Government of

India and is an international academic institute of high reputation. Therefore, the

consultant strongly recommends to WRD to avail the expertise and experience of

AIT so that its technical officers get an opportunity to learn the state-of-the art

technology related to RTSF & ROS.

The following training modules:

1. Advance GIS and satellite data processing tools and techniques for flood

and drought mapping and risk assessment

2. Advance hydrology and hydraulic modelling

3. Disaster management: concepts and practices

4. Flood management concepts, flood modelling, forecasting, warning and

dissemination

6.4 Workshops As part of capacity building and engaging WRD and other stakeholders in the

project development, a total of five workshops were conducted. The workshops

were organized by WRD and were facilitated by experts of the consultants. Among

the workshops listed below, the final workshop was conducted on 3rd

October 2013

in which the Final Report was presented. Also presented was the plan to implement

the 24-month technical support period (March 2013 – February 2015).

http://www.geoinfo.ait.ac.th/

http://www.ait.asia/


80 Final Report

Table 5.4 List of Workshops

Sl.

No.

Workshop Date Activities

1 Inception

Workshop

7 December

2011

Presentation of Inception Report,

stakeholder consultation, further

needs assessment, feedback on

approach & methodology and on

capacity building plan.

2 Interim

Workshop

27 March

2012

Presentation of Interim Report,

feedback on the modelling systems

developed. Presentation of draft

knowledge base system, initial

demos of the models and forecasting

and reservoir operation system.

3 Workshop

on flow

and flood

forecasting

11 October

2012

Presentation of the modelling system,

comments & discussion on the system,

including the forecasting formats and flood

mapping, suggestions to incorporate into

the final version of the forecasting system.

Presentation of the Draft Reservoir

Operation Guidance system and Draft

communication management system,

including web portal.

4 Workshop

reservoir

operation

and

Informatio

n

communic

ation

system and

Draft Final

Report

7 May 2013 Presentation of the Final Reservoir

Operation Guidance system including

optimization system and

communication management system,

including web portal.

Presentation of Draft Final Report,

feedback/comments/suggestions,

evaluation of project achievement,

finalisation of technical support for the

next two years of system operation

discussion on work plan for the support

period.

5 Final

Workshop

3 October

2013

Presentation of the complete project

(including RTDAS) by WRD, presentation

of the Final Report, Implementation Plan

for Support Period and recommendations

for sustainability of the RTSF&ROS.


Final Report 81

6.5 Strategy for Sustainability of RTSF&ROS

6.5.1 Institutional Strengthening

The Basin Simulation Division (BSD) at Pune was established in 2007 after

recommendations of the Wadnere Committee for Real Time Streamflow and Flood

Forecasting. BSD is headed by an Executive Engineer supported by administrative

staff. At present there are four Assistant Engineers (Grade –I) and six Assistant

Engineers (Grade-II). The six Assistant Engineers (Grade-II) are also assigned to

sub-divisions in Shirur, Kohlapur, Sangli, Stara, Solapur and Pune.

The organisational aspects of the RTSF& ROS are of paramount importance for the

sustainability of the established systems. It is important to foster an environment

through training and participation in which WRD staff take ownership of the

system. To sustain this it is critical to establish simple and well thought work

processes ensuring optimal use of the capabilities of the modelling systems. The

BSD is, therefore, considered as the key division of WRD in implementing the

project and develop into a sustainable organisation in operating, maintaining and

updating the modelling systems developed under the RTSF& ROS project.

Therefore, based on the requirements for operationalizing the RTSF&ROS

developed in the project in a sustainable way, an institutional development plan is

focussed at BSD.

6.5.2 Proposed Setup and Functions of BSD

The Basin Simulation Division will be responsible to maintain all the data and

models developed in the present project. Regular updating of the models including

timely validation as new data becomes available will also be the responsibility of

BSD. The operational control room will be central operations room for BSD.

Therefore, BSD will perform the following functions:

Operation and maintenance of the Real Time Data Acquisition System

Management of the central Database

Meteorological analysis and forecast

Hydrologic and hydraulic analyses of the basin

Update of the hydrologic and hydrodynamic models

Operation and maintenance of real time forecasting systems (inflow and

flood)

Operation and maintenance of the reservoir operation guidance system

Communication and information dissemination

These functions should be performed by the assistant engineering staff with one

executive engineer as the manager of BSD. The engineering staff will take turns to

manage the operational control room. Additional staff might be required to man the

operational control room round the clock during critical situations. In addition to

the existing assistant engineers, it is recommended to employ two more staff at

BSD: 1) Meteorologist or a hydrologist with experience and training in interpreting

meteorological information, 2) ICT Expert. The proposed hydrologist/meteorologist

should have a postgraduate degree in hydrology/meteorology/climatology with


82 Final Report

expertise in rainfall forecasting and satellite data applications in meteorology. The

ICT expert should have a graduate degree in computer science/engineering with

expertise in information communication, web design and updates.

It is proposed to organise BSD into the following sub-divisions/sections. Also

shown in Figure 6-3 is the proposed Organogram.

No. Sub-div/Section Functions Responsible Officer Other staff

1 Operational

Control Room

Operation of the

forecast and

reservoir operation

guidance system.

Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) Assistant Eng.

(Gr-II),

Meteorologist,

ICT Expert,

Office

Assistant

2 Meteorological

forecast

Management of

meteorological

data, Analysis of

meteorological

conditions of the

basins, Compilation

of rainfall

forecasts.

Hydrologist/Meteorologist

3 Database Acquisition of

hydro-met, river,

reservoir, GIS and

satellite data and

database

maintenance

Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) 2 Assistant

Engineers

(Gr-II)

4 Modelling Maintain and

update of all

models including

DSS and reservoir

operation system

Assistant Engineer (Gr-I) 4 Assistant

Engineer (Gr-

II)

5 Information

Management

Communication of

forecasts, reservoir

operation guidance

system,

dissemination of

flood forecasts,

web page

management and

updates.

ICT expert


Final Report 83

Figure 6-2 Proposed Organogram of BSD

6.5.3 Operational Control Room

The Operational Control Room is located at the 1st floor of Sinchan Bhawan, Pune

together with the RTDAS Data Centre. The control room will be linked to the BSD

at the 4th floor with LAN. Both the BSD and the Control Room will have dedicated

broadband internet connectivity. The communication between BSD and the Control

Room should preferably be via intranet in addition to the general purpose internet

for links with all stakeholders. It is expected that all important reservoir operation

offices and related decision making offices in Pune, Nashik, Mumbai and other

districts have broadband Internet connectivity so that communications to and from

the control room is efficient and transparent. It is expected that the Operational

Control Room and hence the staff will be active beyond the monsoon season. Water

resources monitoring will be required for droughts as well as for optimal

management of the river basins.

RTSF & ROS Krishna & Bhima River Basins

84 Final Report

7 ACTIVITIES FOR SUPPORT PERIOD

7.1 Introduction As stipulated in the Contract, a two-year technical support will commence after

completing the tasks assigned in the consultancy project. The Technical Support

period is from 17 February 2013 to 16 March 2015. Activities in the two year

Technical Support period will be directed towards ensuring the RTSF-ROS

continues as a relevant and robust system for water resources and flood

management in the Krishna-Bhima Basin. The main activities to be carried out in

the technical support period are:

Software Updates: DHI will provide free updates of the modelling software, and

the RTSF&ROS user interface according to new releases and new developments.

Help Desk and Hotline Support: A hotline support will be permanently

established as a help desk support at DHI Denmark, with remote access to the

system in the Operational Control Room in Pune. The operational staff and other

related officials of WRD will also be able to contact the DHI experts via E-mail,

skype or telephone to resolve any software and operational problem related to the

developed system. Thus a technical problem may be solved in an interactive way.

During the technical support, as stipulated in the TOR, the consultant shall provide

full and effective response to queries within 2 working days and on-site visit to

address issues that cannot be resolved through remote assistance within 2 weeks of

a request.

Operational Support: DHI will provide required support to the concerned officials

responsible for the operation of the RTSF&ROS. This support has been more

intensive during the initial period before the BSD staff gain full confidence in

operating the system. It should, however, be noted that the consultants will not

operate the system. They will only be available when the BSD staff requires expert

support to resolve certain issues. In addition to the above, an intensive support has

been provided by the consultant during the monsoon period of 2013 to test

RTSF&ROS and it was successfully live-tested and made operational on a trial

basis during the monsoon of 2013.

Support in Model Updating: The hydrological and hydrodynamic models used in

the RTSF&ROS may require updating if new information becomes available. The

Consultants will provide support to the modelling staff of BSD in updating the

models. The updates may be in the form of adding new cross sections, new

structures, testing with new date or events and recalibration.

Training: As stipulated in the TOR, DHI will conduct four training courses for

concerned staff. The details of the training courses are provided in the following

sections.

7.2 Support to be Provided

Table 7.1 presents detailed activities during quarter (3 months) of the proposed

support to be provided during the two-year technical support period.


Final Report 85

Table 7.1 Description of activities during the support period (March 2013 – Feb 2015)

Period Support activities Outcome

Qtr-1:

March-May 2013

Monitoring of installation of

RTDAS and quality assured data

flow to the Data Centre.

Support BSD staff in self learning

and practice in modelling.

Establish hotline and help desk

support at DHI Denmark.

Software update with new release,

compatibility checks.

RTSF&ROS ready to be

operationalized on a trial

basis during the monsoon

of 2013

Quarterly Report -1.

Qtr-2:

June-Aug 2103

Final test of link between RTDAS

data and the RTSF&ROS database.

First Training Course

Updating of model for input of

available real time data from

RTDAS

Trial Operation of RTSF&ROS

Real time data from

RTDAS provided

successfully as input to

the RTSF&ROS

BSD Staff capable of

operating the RTSF&ROS

RTSF&ROS operating on

a trial basis with forecasts

issued for internal

evaluation by WRD

Quarterly Report -2.

Qtr-3:

Sept-Nov. 2013

Operation of RTSF&ROS during

September 2013.

Evaluation of performance of

forecasts by RTSF&ROS

Recalibration (fine tuning) of

models if required, with the real

time data of June-Sept 2013.

Successful trial operation

of RTSF&ROS, forecasts

evaluated by WRD,

models fine-tuned with

one-season’s real time

data.

Quarterly Report -3

Qtr-4:

Dec.2013–Feb.

2014

Model updates with new data, if

available

Second Training Course

Updated models

Quarterly Report -4

Qtr-5:

March-May 2014

Ensure complete linkage between

RTDAS data and RTSF&ROS

database

Software updates with new releases

and compatibility checks.

RTSF ready for operation

during the monsoon of

2014

Quarterly Report -5

Qtr-6:

June-Aug 2014

Operation of RTS&ROS

Issue of Forecasts (to be decided by

WRD), regular updating of Website

RTSF&ROS being

operated regularly,

forecasts issued


86 Final Report

Third Training Course Quarterly Report -6

Qtr-3:

Sept-Nov. 2014

Continue forecasting up to Sept –

Oct if required

Evaluation of forecast performance

Obtain feedback from stakeholders

and incorporate suggestions on

dissemination of forecasts and

warning

Fourth training course

Regular forecast issued

Dissemination of flood

warning in consultation

with stakeholders

Quarterly Report -7

Qtr-4:

Dec 2014 – Feb.

2015

Model updates, if new data

available

Prepare annual flood report

Successful completion of

the Support period

Quarterly Report -8

Quarterly reports will be submitted, which will contain type of issues, number of

requests and resolved, and any major issues that needs attention, any update

required, and trainings offered with number of participants.

Quarterly invoices in equal instalments will be submitted to account for the

remaining 15% of the contract value.

7.3 Training Plan during the Support Period The following trainings will be provided to about 10 WRD officials.

Training

No.

Duration/

dates

Subject Topics to be covered

1 1 week

June 2013

Operation of KBS

and RTSF&ROS

Refresher course on

modelling, knowledge base

system and on the

operation of the

RTSF&ROS using real

time data from RTDAS,

interpretation of results, use

of the communication Web

Portal, updating of

Website.

2 1 week

January 2014

Hydrological and

Hydrodynamic

modelling

Refresher on hydrological

and hydrodynamic

modelling, model

calibration, model updating


Final Report 87

3 1 week

June 2014

Operation of the

RTSF&ROS,

trouble shooting

Full operation of the

RTSF&ROS, updating

system configuration,

reservoir operation scenario

management, optimization,

error logging and trouble

shooting, help desk

coordination, generation of

flow and flood forecast

products and dissemination

of warning messages.

4 1 week

January 2015

Reporting, Flood

forecast and

warning

dissemination

Advance topics on

dissemination of flood

warnings based on

stakeholders’ feedback,

reservoir operation

guidance, maintenance and

updating of the

RTSF&ROS.


88 Final Report

8 REFERENCES

/1/ Contract, RTDSS: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/2011, INDIA: HYDROLOGY

PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for

implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,

2011.

/2/ Technical Offer, Loan No: 4749-IN, RFP No. : HP II/MAHA (SW)/2,

Consultancy services for implementation of a Real Time Streamflow

Forecasting and Reservoir Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima

River basins in Maharashtra, 2011.

/3/ Request for Proposal, RFP: HP II/MAHA (SW)/2/, INDIA: HYDROLOGY

PROJECT PHASE –II, (Loan No: 4749-IN), Consultancy services for

implementation of a Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir

Operation System for the Krishna and Bhima River basins in Maharashtra,

2011.

/4/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-1, RTSF&

ROS, September 2011.

/5/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Monthly Progress Report-2, RTSF&

ROS, October 2011.

/6/ Government of Maharashtra, Water Resources Department, Report on

precise determination of reservoir releases during emergency situation in the

State by Technical Committee. May 2007.

/7/ Bidding documents for Procurement of Goods and Related Services for

Supply, Installation, Testing, Commissioning and Maintenance of Real

Time Data Acquisition System for the Krishna and Bhima River Basins in

Maharashtra, ICB No: HP II / MAHA (SW) / 1, India: Hydrology Project

Phase-II, (Loan: 4749-IN), Chief Engineer, Hydrology Project, Government

of Maharashtra, 2011.

/8/ National Institute of Hydrology / DHI. Development of Decision Support

System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,

Inception Report, DSS (Planning) Project, Hydrology Project-II, 2009.

/9/ Water Resources Department, Government of Maharashtra. Documents of

various Reservoirs.

/10/ National Institute of Hydrology (NIH), Development of Decision Support

System for Integrated Water Resources Development and Management,

Interim Report, DHI, June 2011.


Final Report 89

/11/ Bhakra Beas Management Board, Real Time Decision Support System for

Operational Management of BBMB Reservoirs. DSS Software

Development Specifications. DHI. October 2009.

/12/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dam Safety manual

Chapter 2, Identification of causes of failures in Dams and their appurtenant

structure, 1995.


Chapter 7, Flood forecasting, reservoir operation and Gate Operation,1984.


Chapter 8, Preparedness for Dealing with emergency situations on dams,

1984.

/15/ Government of Maharashtra, Irrigation Department, Dams in Maharashtra,

2000.

/16/ Maharashtra Water and Irrigation Commission Report, 1999.

/17/ Raghunath, H.M. Hydrology: Principles, Analysis, Design. New Age

Publishers, 2006.

/18/ World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), Guide to Meteorological

Instruments & Methodology of Observations (6th

edition) WMO-No. 8,

1996.

/19/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Interim Report RTSF& ROS, March

2012.

/20/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Knowledge Base System

Documentation, June 2012.

/21/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Knowledge Base System User Guide,

June 2012.

/22/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Version 1, User Guide

Draft, June 2012.

/23/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Installation Guide for KBS and

RTSF&ROS modelling Packages

/24/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Version 2, User Guide,

September 2012.

/25/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, RTSF&ROS Model Development

Report, September 2012.

/26/ DHI (India) Water & Environment, Reservoir Operation System &

Communication Management System, October 2012.

/27/ HALL, W.A. and DRACUP, J.A. 1970. Water resources systems

engineering. New York, McGraw-Hill.

/28/ HILLIER, F.S. and LIEBERMAN, G.J. 1990. Introduction to operations

research, 5th edn. New York, McGraw-Hill.

/29/ WURBS, R.A. 1996. Modelling and analysis of reservoir system operations.

Upper Saddle River, N.J., Prentice Hall


90 Final Report

/30/ REVELLE, C. 1999. Optimizing reservoir resources. New York, John

Wiley

/31/ Loucks, D.P., et.al. (2005). Water Resources Systems Planning and

Management: An Introduction to Methods, Models and Applications.

UNESCO PUBLISHING.

/32/ DHI Water & Environment (2011), MIKE by DHI, AUTOCAT User Guide,

2001.

/33/ Ngo, L.L. Madsen, H. & Rosbjerg, D. (2007), Simulation and Optimization

modelling approach for operation of the Hoa Binh reservoir, Vietnam,

Journal of Hydrology, 336, 269-281.

/34/ Pedersen, C.B., Madsen, H., Skotner, C. (2007), Real-time optimization of

dam releases using multiple objectives. Application to the Orange-Fish-

Sundays River Basin, South Africa, 13th

SANCIAHS Symposium, Cape

Town, South Africa.

/35/ Duan, Q., Sorooshian, S. and Gupta, V. (1992), Effective and efficient

global optimization for conceptual rainfall-runoff models, Water Resources

Research, 28(4), 1015-1031.

/36/ Madsen, H. (2003), Parameter Estimation in distributed hydrological

catchment modelling using automatic calibration with multiple objectives,

Advances in Water Resources, 26, 205-216.

/37/ Madsen, H. & Vinter, B. (2006), Parameter optimisation in complex

hydrodynamic and hydrological modelling systems using distributed

computing, Proceedings of the 7th International Conference on

Hydroinformatics (Eds. P. Gourbesville, J. Cunge, V. Guinot and S.Y.

Liong), 4-8 September 2006, Nice, France, Vol. 4, 2489-2496.

/38/ Madsen, H., Skotner, C. (2005), Adaptive state updating in real-time river

flow forecasting - A combined filtering and error forecasting procedure,

Journal of Hydrology, 308(1-4), 302 – 312.

/39/ Website: www.imd.gov.in

/40/ Website: www.punefloodcontrol.com

/41/ Website: [email protected]

/42/ Website: www.ncmrwf.gov.in

/43/ Website: www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

/44/ Website: www.nrsc.gov.in

/45/ Website: www.mahawrd.org

/46/ Website: www.idrn.gov.in

/47/ Website: www.ndma.gov.in

/48/ Website: www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in

/49/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

/50/ Website: www.cgwb.gov.in

/51/ Website: www.mahahp.org

/52/ Website: www.isro.gov.in

/53/ Website: www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov

http://www.imd.gov.in/

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/

http://www.nrsc.gov.in/

http://www.mahawrd.org/

http://www.idrn.gov.in/

http://www.ndma.gov.in/

http://www.mdmu.maharashtra.gov.in/

http://www.cgwb.gov.in/

http://www.mahahp.org/

http://www.isro.gov.in/

http://www.trmm.gsfc.nasa.gov/


Final Report 91

DOCUMENTATION

Following documents have been prepared and submitted to WRD as deliverables of the

Project:

INCEPTION REPORT

INTERIM REPORT

KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM

USERGUIDE TO THE KNOWLEDGE ABSE SYSTEM

INSTALLATION GUIDE FOR THE KNOWLEDGE BASE SYSTEM

USERGUIDE (VERSION 1 AND 2) TO THE RTSF&ROS MODELLING

SYSTEM

MODEL DEVELOPMENT REPORT

RESERVOIR OPERATION AND COMMUNICATION MANAGEMENT

SYSTEM

TRAINING MATERIALS

WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS

USER GUIDES OF THE MODELLING SYSTEMS

DRAFT FINAL REPORT

FINAL REPORT

FINAL REPORT Appendix: Results of Real time testing during the monsoon

of 2013


92 Final Report

APPENDIX A: LIST OF TRAININGS CONDUCTED

N0 Duration

/ date

Topic /

contents

Venue Trainers Participants

1 4 days

27-30 Sep.

2011

Introduction to

Remote sensing

& GIS and

application to

water resources

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

Executive Engineer,

and 8 officers of

BSD (9 persons)

2 1 day

20 Oct.

2011

Introduction to

modelling

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal,

Finn

Hansen)

Executive Engineer,

and 8 officers of

BSD (9 persons)

3 3 days

22-24

Dec.

2011

Hydraulics:

Open Channels,

Control

Structures, Mike

Basin

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal,

Dr Pandit)

8 officers of

BSD

4 1 days

27 Jan

2012

Hydraulics:

Open Channels,

Control

Structures

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Finn

Hansen)

8 officers of

BSD

5 1 days

3 Feb

2012

Hydrology:

Concepts of

rainfall runoff,

met forecasts,

rainfall runoff

modelling using

NAM

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Pune

Consultant

staff (Dr

Saso)

Executive

Engineer, and

8 officers of

BSD (9

persons)

6 3 days

28, Feb,

1 Mar, 3

Mar

2012

GIS & RS : Use

of Spatial Data

and sources

MIKE 11 : HD

Model

MIKE Basin

RTSF&ROS

Consultant’s

Project office,

Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal,

Dr Pandit ,

Prashant)

Executive

Engineer, and

8 officers of

BSD (9

persons)

7 5 days

16-21

April 2012

MIKE 11 : HD

Modelling and

Result

Interpretation

BSD Consultant

staff (Finn

Hansen)

BSD (9

persons); HP

(5 persons) =

14

8 2 days

18-19 May

2012

Introduction to

GPS (Including

Field Exercise)

BSD

Field

Consultant

staff (Dr

Pandit,

Guna

Paudyal)

BSD (9

persons); HP

(9 persons)

=18

9 4 days

18-21

Knowledge

Base System

and the

BSD Consultant

staff

(Gregers,

BSD (9

persons); HP

(3 persons)


Final Report 93

N0 Duration

/ date

Topic /

contents


June. 2012 RTSF&ROS

(Forecasting

System)

Anders

Klinting,

Guna

Paudyal,

Dr Pandit )

10 1 Day Reservoir

Optimisation

BSD Consultant

staff

(Claus

Pedersen,

Guna

Paudyal,

Dr Pandit )

BSD (9

persons); HP

(3 persons)

11 3 Days

3-5 Dec,

2012

GIS & Remote

Sensing,

Refresher on

GIS and remote

sensing

concepts,

Applications of

RS & GIS in

Water

Resources

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person

12 1 Day

6 Dec,

2012

Knowledge

Base System

(KBS)

GIS, Time

Series Data

BSD Consultant

staff

(Kavita

Patil,

Rucha

Dakave)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person

13 1 Day

7 Dec,

2012

Operation of

RTSF&ROS,

RTSF&ROS for

forecasting &

reservoir

operation

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person

14 2 Days

11-12

Dec,

2012

River Basin

Modelling

(MIKE BASIN)

Basics of MIKE

Basin,

components,

development,

Krishna - Bhima

model

simulations

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit,

Kavita

Patil)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person

15 1 Day

13 Dec,

2012

Crop Water

Requirement

using

CROPWAT

BSD Consultant

staff (Dr.

Pandit)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person

16 1 Day

14

Dec2012

Rainfall-runoff

modelling

(NAM)

Details of NAM

model, data

inputs,

parameters,

BSD Consultant

staff

(Kavita

Patil,

Rucha

Dakave)

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person


94 Final Report

N0 Duration

/ date

Topic /

contents


viewing results,

calibration

17 4 Days River

Hydrodynamic

modelling, Details of

MIKE11 model,

setting up

network, Cross-

section,

boundary, time

series data, model updating, flood mapping,

viewing and

analysing results

BSD Consultant

staff (Guna

Paudyal,

Prashant

Kadam,

Rucha

Dakave))

BSD (8

persons); HP

(4 persons);

WRD 1 person


Final Report 95

APPENDIX B: RESULTS OF RTSF&ROS USING REAL

TIME DATA ACQUISITION SYSTEM

Separate Volume

Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation...

Documents

Transcript of Real Time Streamflow Forecasting and Reservoir Operation...