Real Driving Emissions In Service Conformity...regulation, robustly detects repetitive failures of...

Real Driving Emissions In Service Conformity

1st June 2017

Elsa Malki [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

RDE ISC

2

1. Statistical procedure

2. Investigation

RDE ISC STATISTICS

3

ACEA INTERNAL

Cu

rre

nt

reg

ula

tio

n

ACEA 17 January

ACEA 7 April EU Com 7 April

ICCT 1st February

ICCT 7 April

Netherlands 1st February

Pass if average < limit - 𝑆2

𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡

Fail if average ≥ limit - (𝑁 −3)

7 *

𝑆2


Netherlands 7 April

ACEA 9 March

Pass if average < limit - 𝑆2


Fail if average ≥ limit - (𝑁 −3)

7 *

𝑆2


+ (𝟏𝟎 −𝑵)

𝟕 * limit * margin

Pass if median < limit - 𝑆2


Fail if median ≥ limit - (𝑁 −3)

7 *

𝑆2


HD

1

2

3

5

4

6 7

8

9 10

RDE ISC STATISTICAL PROCEDURE

4

All proposals for RDE ISC statistical procedure generate a major increase of stringency compared to current ISC regulation:

Fail sample if first 3 vehicles fail instead of minimum 5 vehicles today

Reduction of maximum sample size from 20 to 10 vehicles

Significant reduction of environmental risk


5

Example #1: (diesel NOx)

89

179

30

119 107

119 108 113 117 119

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Vehicles

NTE 120 mg/km

Outlier zone 180 mg/km (1.5 * limit)

RD

E N

Ox

mg

/km


6

Vehicle RDE NOx

mg/km

1 89

2 179

3 30

4 119

5 107

6 119

7 108

8 113

9 117

10 119

Example #1: (diesel – limit 120 mg/km) Application of ISO based method (current reg. / EU Com proposal):

PASS decision for sample


7

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

RD

E N

Ox

mg/

km

Sample Size

Average PASS FAIL

Example #1 Application of Netherlands proposal

PASS if:

Average < limit - 𝑆2


FAIL if:

Average ≥ limit - (𝑁 −3)

7*

𝑆2

𝑙𝑖𝑚𝑖𝑡 +

(10 −𝑁)

7*limit*margin

S: standard deviation N: sample size

Margin: 0.3 Limit: NTE 120 mg/km


8

Vehicle RDE NOx

mg/km

Average

sample

Standard

deviation

1 89

2 179

3 30 99 74.8

4 119 103.88 61.85

5 107 104.4 53.58

6 119 106.75 48.27

7 108 106.93 44.06

8 113 107.63 40.84

9 117 108.67 38.33

10 119 109.65 36.27

Example #1:


9

Vehicle RDE NOx

mg/km

Average

sample

Standard

deviation

Pass

threshold

Fail

threshold Decision

1 89 TEST MORE

2 179 TEST MORE

3 30 99 74.8 73.37 156 TEST MORE

4 119 103.88 61.85 88.12 146.3 TEST MORE

5 107 104.4 53.58 96.08 138.88 TEST MORE

6 119 106.75 48.27 100.59 132.25 TEST MORE

7 108 106.93 44.06 103.82 126.18 TEST MORE

8 113 107.63 40.84 106.1 120.36 TEST MORE

9 117 108.67 38.33 107.76 114.65 TEST MORE

10 119 109.65 36.27 109.04 109.04 FAIL


Average ≥ FAIL threshold FAIL decision for the sample


10

Example #2: Same as example #1 except from vehicle #3

89

179

60

119 107

119 108 113 117 119

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Vehicles

NTE 120 mg/km

Outlier zone 180 mg/km (1.5 * limit)

RD

E N

Ox

mg

/km

emissions increase from 30 to 60 mg/km


11

Vehicle RDE NOx

mg/km Average

Standard

deviation (S)

1 89

2 179

3 60 109.00 61.85

4 119 111.38 50.73

5 107 110.40 43.98

6 119 111.75 39.48

7 108 111.21 36.07

8 113 111.38 33.39

9 117 112.00 31.29

10 119 112.65 29.58

Example #2:

Increase of vehicle #3 emissions Higher average Lower standard deviation


12

Vehicle RDE NOx

mg/km Average

Standard

deviation (S)

Pass

threshold

Fail

threshold Decision

1 89 TEST MORE

2 179 TEST MORE

3 60 109.00 61.85 88.12 156.00 TEST MORE

4 119 111.38 50.73 98.56 147.79 TEST MORE

5 107 110.40 43.98 103.88 141.11 TEST MORE

6 119 111.75 39.48 107.01 135.01 TEST MORE

7 108 111.21 36.07 109.16 129.23 TEST MORE

8 113 111.38 33.39 110.71 123.65 TEST MORE

9 117 112.00 31.29 111.84 118.15 TEST MORE

10 119 112.65 29.58 112.71 112.71 PASS


Increase of emissions Lower standard deviation Higher PASS/FAIL thresholds Average < PASS threshold PASS decision for the sample instead of FAIL


13

Conclusions on the application of Netherlands proposal: Example #1: Lower emissions, higher standard deviation FAIL Example #2: Higher emissions, lower standard deviation PASS


14

Current regulation

ACEA initial proposal

ACEA revised proposal

EU Com proposal

ICCT revised proposal

HD regulation

PA

SS

ING

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

OK RATE IN THE FIELD

20%

4

0%

6

0%

8

0%

10

0%

20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Producer risk

Environmental risk


15

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

25 mg/km st. dev.

30 mg/km st. dev.

35 mg/km st. dev.

40 mg/km st. dev.

45 mg/km st. dev.

50 mg/km st. dev.

55 mg/km st. dev.

PA

SS

ING

PR

OB

AB

ILIT

Y

OK RATE IN THE FIELD

Netherlands proposal for scenarios with different standard deviations (with NOx limit = 120 mg/km)

Current regulation

ACEA initial proposal

ACEA revised proposal

EU Com proposal

ICCT revised proposal

HD regulation

Producer risk is higher for Netherlands proposal

than Heavy Duty


16

EU Commission proposal Netherlands proposal

Based on ISO standard and current ISC

regulation, robustly detects repetitive

failures of emissions control systems

- Based on formula derived from COP for fixed

WLTP cycle, leads to inconsistent decisions

Allows some variability of in-service vehicles

and RDE testing conditions

- Fail threshold is a function of the spread

(disadvantages low emissions too)

Detection of outliers and early investigation

of cause and recurrence of failure

- Whole family can fail in-service conformity

based on only one single outlier


17

REAL DRIVING EMISSIONS PACKAGE 4

July 2017 DRAFT

Nov 2017 VOTE

March 2018 PUBLICATION

September 2018 FIRST RDE4 TYPE APPROVAL current ISC statistical procedure applies to RDE

New RDE ISC statistical procedure applies to Euro 6d vehicles

ACEA supports EU Commission proposal for RDE ISC statistical procedure for this timeframe.

RDE ISC

18

1. Statistical procedure

2. Investigation

RDE ISC

19

IN-SERVICE CONFORMITY

Sample decision?

INVESTIGATION

PASS

FAIL

PLAN OF REMEDIAL

Is there a problem?

YES

NO

RDE ISC

20

GTAA tests X families / year

Sample decision?

GTAA starts investigation with OEM

GTAA and OEM test another sample

Check test & vehicle

conditions?

Sample decision?

OEM determines cause and develops plan of remedial measures

within 90 working days

OEM implements remedial measures

GTAA approves

plan within 30 working

days?

PASS

FAIL

PASS

INVALID

FAIL

VALID YES

NO

First step of investigation should be to reproduce the failure.

Vehicles are compliant

Test results from accredited labs

Vehicles are not compliant

RDE ISC

21

NOK

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Sample size 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Same vehicles family / same calibration

RDE OUTLIERS

22

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

NOx emissions [NTE multiplier]

Outliers

Beta distribution with Mean: 0.75 NTE (90 mg/km) St.dev.: 0.42 NTE (50 mg/km)

0 80 160 240 320 400 480 560

pro

ba

bil

ity

de

nsi

ty

NOx emissions [mg/km]

Mean: 60 mg/km St.dev.: 15 mg/km (diesel)

NEDC / WLTP RDE

Outliers

special causes

RDE OUTLIERS

23

RDE outliers (>1.5 * NTE value) can be due to: - vehicle defect special cause

should be investigated - extreme, unrepresentative

testing conditions - or unknown history of operation

of vehicles in service. Definition of RDE outlier should be written in package 4 regulation.

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4

Pro

bab

ility

de

nsi

ty

Emission [NTE multiplier]

Outliers

Thank you for your attention www.acea.be

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