Read roadmaps dont have roads
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Transcript of Read roadmaps dont have roads
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Change the Metaphor
! Not an automobile roadmap ! No clear route
! No easy navigation
! No “gas stations”
! Think aircraft or sailing ! Heading, bearing
! Navigation error
! Bring your own supplies
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Is your crystal ball perfect?���Dave Hornford, Partner���Conexiam
Traverse your roadmap - review, revise and wind-up Using scenario technique to manage forks in the roadmap
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Conexiam EA Capability
Enterprise Architecture
Change Leadership
Today
• Enterprise Architecture���key deliverable: the roadmap
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Try standing still
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Roadmap
! Sequential & dependency aware set of work packages that realize the Target
! Includes options and value statements for each Work Package ! Value stated in terms of business capability, market reach and
limitations
! Provide awareness of existing roadblocks, why they are roadblocks and implications of addressing them head on or perpetually detouring
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Example Roadmap ���(Program)
Business
Systems
Year x+1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
Year X =2 Q4
Year x
Milestone/Decision Point
Business
Information Technology
Information Systems
Name of Project Spend: $ ; Savings: $
Dependency Complete
Name of Project Spend $ ; Savings: $
ü
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Infrastructure
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
Name of Project Est. Spend $ 0; Est. Savings: $ 0
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Example Roadmap ���(Program/ Project)
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
Supported by text explanation
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Scenario ! Use the dimensions of uncertainty to construct internally consistent
pictures of possible future worlds
! Tools ! Shell Explorer’s Guide
A scenario is a story that describes a possible future. It identifies some significant events, the main actors and their motivations, and it conveys how the world functions. Decision makers can use scenarios to think about the uncertain aspects of the future that most worry them—or to discover the aspects about which they should be concerned—and to explore the ways in which these might unfold
! Other references ! Scenario Planning (Lingren & Bandhold) ! Scenarios: The Art of the Strategic Conversation (Heijden)
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Scenarios���Options, Choices & Drivers
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The future
! Did the future unfold according to your plan? ! The future is in motion���
Clouds, credit, succession, project success, and everything else
! Did your environment’s change align? Do you need a new road?
! Is there a fork in the road? An end of the road?
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Overcome murky crystal ball
! Use scenarios to defer unnecessary choice ! Dimensions of uncertainty
! Highlight the uncertain
! Uncover aspects to be concerned about
! Real roadmap's require lifecycle management ! Review, revision & wind-up
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Scenarios Dimensions of Uncertainty - your fears - things you should fear
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Architecture & Scenarios
! Architecture ! description of a system ! description of the system’s
components ! description of the components
relationship
! Now change ! a component ! a foundation ! a principle
! Scenario ! keep the future fluid
! consider a set of scenarios������������
! How did you manage change ! with certainty?
! with confidence?
! with precision?
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Manage uncertainty Things you fear
! Explore uncertain aspects of the future you know you worry about
! Look at the system ! How does your scenario
avoid & manage your fears
! Did you push the limits? Or run a ‘safe path’?
Things you should fear
! Discover aspects of the future you should worry about���
! Look at the system ! Are there problems lurking?
! What is not in your control that can derail you?
! Is your ‘safe path’ the ‘safest’?
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Forks
! Many roadmaps have decisions that limit future choice ! When do you need to make the decision?
! Today, Tomorrow, Next Quarter
! Scenarios supporting a Roadmap facilitate structured deferral ! Do you know the significant event that triggers a decision
! Use identified uncertainty ! to focus on gathering information
! to focus on identifying the evolving context
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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The Traps Artificial Certainty Straight-line
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Artificial certainty
! Our greatest trap ! Forces the system to revolve around arbitrary fixed points
! Do we do it ! Project & Capital spend processes require it
! We hate ambiguity
! Need to demonstrate progress
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Straightline
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Conclusion Real roadmaps have no roads Use scenario to explore future & uncertainty
Use scenario to explore impact of inaction, mis-action & action Roadmaps must be revisited
Manage the level of certainty
Further out & most impacted are less certain
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference
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Questions
! Dave Hornford���Partner���[email protected]���+1 403.818.4303
! EA Capability ! Enterprise Architecture ! Change Leadership
www.conexiam.com
April 2012 Conexiam - Open Group Conference