RE-POWERING ELECTRICITY MARKETS · RE‐POWERING ELECTRICITY MARKETS Market Design and Regulation...
Transcript of RE-POWERING ELECTRICITY MARKETS · RE‐POWERING ELECTRICITY MARKETS Market Design and Regulation...
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RE‐POWERING ELECTRICITY MARKETSMarket Design and Regulation during the Energy Transition
Book overview and emerging conclusions
ESAP Plenary MeetingParis, 7th July 2015
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IEA work on electricity security, decarbonisation and market design
Networks
Systemoperations
ElectricitySecurity
GenerationInvestments
Demand
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Book overview
1. Introduction and key issues2. Low carbon generation investments3. Short term markets4. Reliability and resource adequacy5. Capacity markets6. Demand response7. Transmission investments8. Distribution network regulation9. Retail pricing
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Decarbonisation of electricity sector
By 2050, the power sector has to become low‐carbon Carbon pricing
Low carbon investments are capital intensive
Electricity restructuring took place in many countries Power purchase agreements, unbundling
Wholesale competition
Retail competition
Can we make market design fit for purpose for decarbonisation?
1 Introduction
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Generation mix still based on“regulated” investments
Competitive marketsRegulationCapacity additions by technology, 1960‐2013, OECD Europe
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
25 000
30 000
35 000
40 000
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013
MW
CoalNuclearGasRenewable
1 Introduction
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Decarbonisation of the merit‐order
‐ 33
+70+857 *
Coal:‐ 138 GW
Gas: +149
USD
/MWh
Lower demandgrowth
Electrical Capacity
Nuclear(134 GW)
Renewables(1000 GW)
* size on the figure corresponds to average load factor)
Coal(62 GW)
Gas(337 GW, GT and CC)
Oil(13 GW)
‐50
New capacity and coal retirement in the capacity mix, 450 scenario 2014‐2040, in OECD Europe
Low carbon and gas capacity addition reach around 1400 GWover 2014‐2040 in OECD Europe, of which 57% are renewables
1 Introduction
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Electricity markets: short‐term, medium‐term and long‐term markets
Short term markets (Day‐ahead, Intraday and Real Time/Balancing)are the reference of all other markets
1 Introduction
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Low‐carbon generation investments
Source: 2015 RTE Réseau de transport d’électricité* Polskie Sieci Elektroenergetyczne Operator (PSE) POLPX**Power Exchange Central Europe, Market Comment Dec 2014
NORDPOOL29,6
Netherland41,2
Germany32,8
Italy52,1
Great Britain52,2
Belgium40,8
France34,6
Spain42,7
Switzerland36,8
Czech Rep.**33,30
Poland*43.14
Electric average Spot Prices in 2014, Europe (€/MWh)
Low coal prices
Low CO2 prices
Excess capacity
Demand decline
Low wholesale pricesdon’t send signals to invest
2 Low‐C investments
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Market‐based low carbon investments: what perspective?
80
120 Equity return = 12%
Level of price Neededover 20 yearsfor operatingand debt repayment
O&M costs Debt repayment *(principal and interest)
* Average over 20 years, assuming a project financed with 75% of debt and a cost of debt of 5%
Cash flows for equity Electricity price range
The infrastructure financing puzzle consists in financing capital‐intensive investment, in a context of long‐term price uncertainty, at a low cost of capital to keep the energy transition affordable
2 Low‐C investments
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As investments in wind and solar power continue, the design of short term markets must adapt
Market design must be adapted to integrateweather‐dependent renewables efficiently while ensuring system security
Over‐generationCalifornia ISO, Long‐Term Procurement Proceeding Scenario,
24 March 2024
Source: CAISO
MW
0
5 000
10 000
15 000
20 000
0:00 6:00 12:00 18:00 23:00
Cogeneration, CHP and other small scale self‐generation
Nuclear
GeothermalSmall hydro and biomass
Regulation andload following down
Net Load
3 Short term markets
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Continental markets‐market coupling
Regional markets‐ Locational marginal pricing
Local markets‐ Distribution platform
Efficient markets are needed at all levels
Temporal and geographical resolution of energy prices has to be right
3 Short term markets
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Reliability and adequacy remain regulated, rather than the outcome of markets
Existing framework: Reliability standards Scarcity pricing Capacity markets
Key issues: Are markets efficient at pricing
scarcity? Is regulatory intervention
required? to mitigate market power? to price reliability on behalf of
consumers?
4 Reliability & adequacy
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Capacity markets: a safety net supplementing energy markets
PJM Variable Resource Requirement curve for 2017/2018 delivery period
Defining capacity requirements put a huge responsibility on system operators or governments who tend to be conservative
5 Capacity markets
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Demand response potential can be huge but remains largely untapped because current benefits are small and dispersed, transaction costs are high
Demand response: making dynamic pricing work
Source: r2b (2014):lead study electriciy market, BMWi
Demand response potential in Germany, 2014
6 Demand response
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Transmission and interconnectors are the backbone of well‐functioning electricity markets
Today, decarbonisation requires more, not less, network
7 Transmission
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Behind the meter resources: threat or opportunity for the distribution network and power markets?
Distributed generation and self‐consumption:a niche market or a major disruption?
8 Distribution
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Reforming retail pricing is urgent to incentivize the efficient deployment of distributed resources
Roof top Solar PV Spain Electricity prices
LCOE Solar PV
Taxes
Renewablesupportcost
Electricity price
Wholesaleprice
Volume‐related Network cost
Fixed networkcosts
Avoided costs
Other costs
€/MWh
Consumers have alternative to grid electricity andtheir demand becomes elastic to prices
9 Retail pricing
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A Power pact for the transition of power markets
Need to RE‐POWER markets
Aligning markets and policies increasingly complex
Likely to require a lot of regulation and policy measures
Coming Soon: IEA book on market design
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Thank youhttp://www.iea.org/topics/electricity/