Ray Poynter Social Media Research in 2015

Social Media Research - 2015Ray Poynter, UK, May 2015

Social Media Research – 2015An updated review

Ray PoynterThe Future Place & NewMR

28 May 2015

#NewMR 2015 Corporate Sponsors

#NewMR 2015 Supporters

Schlesinger AssociatesKeen as Mustard


Agenda

The Promise

The Challenges

The Successes

The Future

Q & A


The Promise – 10 Years Ago

Why listen to some of us (e.g. surveys & focus groups), when you can listen to all of us? (i.e. social media)

Shift from the brand’s agenda to the customer’s agenda

Social media research forecast to replace MR– Just like big data is now

going to replace MR

Treat everybody as an individual, demographics are out of date


The ChallengesObservations• SMR can answer questions not asked,

but can be weak on questions that are being asked

• SMR tools being used less by client-side insight teams

• But use by sales, marketing, PR etc. increasing

• Considerable doubts about ‘Sentiment Analysis’

• What does SMR miss?


https://www.visioncritical.com/social-customers/


Google Flu Trends

http://www.google.org/flutrends/ May 2015

http://www.google.org/flutrends/

http://www.google.org/flutrends/


Google Flu Trends - Japan


Google Flu – the failures


Flu Near You – a crowdsourced approach


SMR and Gartner’s Hype CyclePeak of inflated expectations (2008)

Trough of disillusionment (2013)

Slope of enlightenment (now)

Plateau of productivity (soon)


Predicting Tracking Results from SM

• TNS are leading the public front on this one

• They have found that SMR can predict tracking scores about 8 weeks in advance– Making tracking a lot more

useful and cheaper– Their model is based in using

SMR and surveys– Hybrid human/machine

• SMR is not being used to be representative, it is used to be predictive

• TNS studied 61 brands

• R2 of 0.9 with tracking, up to 8 weeks in advance– SMR relates more closely

than attributes to brand equity

– And to sales dataTNS Paper : http://bit.ly/NewMR_112


BT Study

BT Case Study: http://bit.ly/NewMR_113

Net Easy – key metric for success

• DebateScape to trawl social media• Focus & repetition allow automation• Social used to resolve problems• AND, as an input to key metrics• Lowered costs of operation by $3 million a year


Twitter and Facebook Analytics

• Think of Facebook and Twitter as advertising platforms – rather than as social networks

• Becoming leaders in Market Mix Models and Predictive Analytics

• Tracking/attribution options beyond simple tools such as cookies

• Experiments and models


Big SMR Projects are OftenBetter than Small Ones

For example:– Tracking studies– BT and services– CRM and service

integration– Market Mix Modelling– Test and learn cycles

Because– Predictive analytics are

expensive to set up, but cheap to run

– The best text analytics = machine learning with human training – slow & expensive to create, but cheap and fast to run


NewMR/GreenBook SM Project

Highlighting Success in SMR• Data collection May 2015• Using SMR to research the world of MR• Reporting in June 2015

Participants Include:• Valerie Esqueda, CultrDig• Andrew Jeavons, Mass Cognition• Daniel Fazekas, Bakamo Social• Mary Aviles, Connect 4 Marketing• Janet Gunner, MMR International• Cyndi De Vries, Interact RDT• Sue Bell, Susan Bell Research• Preriit Souda, TNS• Tim Burke, Affinio


‘Traditional’ SMR Still Happening• Kraft: Noticed trend on ‘Cut’,

‘Blood’ & ‘Salad Dressing’ – a new bottle was causing problems, quickly identified and fixed, thanks to SMR

• Starbucks: MyStarbucksIdea: still delivering 1000s of ideas

• Scottish Referendum: The Drum correctly called a Yes result from social media listing

• Argos: UK retailer used listening to help opening 53 new stores, identifying issues and responding to trends.

• ESPN: Partnered with TfL to show football results on London Underground displays, monitored Twitter to track interest in the campaign


The Near Future

Standalone SMR– Systems will get better AND

cheaper, and easier to use– Sentiment analysis will

improve– The SM world will keep

changing, so re-calibration essential

– Range extended to all languages and scripts

Integration– With survey and other

conventional research– With panels, communities,

mobile, passive & big data – more complex maths/stats

– With marketing and service delivery

– Unlikely to be managed by the insights team


Big PictureIn terms of Gartners’ hype cycle:– We’ve had Peak of Inflated Expectations & Trough of

Disillusionment– We’re on the Slope of Enlightenment & on the way to

Plateau of Productivity

The key seems to be integration– Integration with big data– Integrations with other market research– Integration with marketing and service delivery


Thank You!


Q & A

Ray PoynterThe Future Place

Sue YorkHandbook of Mobile

Market Research

#NewMR 2015 Corporate Sponsors

#NewMR 2015 Supporters

Schlesinger AssociatesKeen as Mustard

Ray Poynter Social Media Research in 2015

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