Raw Materials for Emerging Technologies...© Fraunhofer ISI Selected technology portfolio (42...
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© Fraunhofer ISI WS 4: Strategic Raw Materials and Sustainable Development Dr. Luis A. TERCERO ESPINOZA FUTURE GLOBAL NEEDS FOR CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND THEIR RELATION TO SDGs (c) shutterstock.com/Dario Lo Presti, sezer66, Maciej Noskowski Luis Tercero Espinoza
Transcript of Raw Materials for Emerging Technologies...© Fraunhofer ISI Selected technology portfolio (42...
© Fraunhofer ISI
WS 4: Strategic Raw Materials and Sustainable DevelopmentDr. Luis A. TERCERO ESPINOZA
FUTURE GLOBAL NEEDS FOR CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND THEIR RELATION TO SDGs
(c) shutterstock.com/Dario Lo Presti, sezer66, Maciej NoskowskiLuis Tercero Espinoza
© Fraunhofer ISI
Achieving Sustainable Development Goals wi l l require raw materials
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/
© Fraunhofer ISI
Achieving Sustainable Development Goals wi l l require raw materials . . . and change supply & demand
http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/sustainable-development-goals/
© Fraunhofer ISI
Lifetime of products
Collection
schemes
Mining and
beneficiation
technol.
Purification technol.
Exploration technol.
Manufacturing
capacity
Exploration
Investment
Recovery from landfills
Recovery from mining
and processing wasteRecycling
Manufacturing
Metals and minerals in
discarded products
Demand for
metals and minerals
R&D
Demand for
products and services
Recovery from
manufacturing scrap
Mine development
and operationProduct
development
Recycling technology
Supply of
metals and minerals
Manufacturing technol.
Technology mix
(dominant & emerging)
Propensity
to buy
Purchasing
capacity
Population
Raw materials processing
Speci
fic r
egula
tory
and s
oci
al e
nvi
ronm
ent
Specific regulatory and
social environment
Modified after Tercero Espinoza & Wittmer:
On the influence of technological change and
substitution on the demand for non-energy raw
materials. In: Wittmer & Sievers (Hrsg.):
Thematic Report V: Developments on the raw
material markets, 2015, 82–109 ,
http://minerals4eu.brgm-rec.fr/node/45532
© Fraunhofer ISI
Lifetime of products
Collection
schemes
Mining and
beneficiation
technol.
Purification technol.
Exploration technol.
Manufacturing
capacity
Exploration
Investment
Recovery from landfills
Recovery from mining
and processing wasteRecycling
Manufacturing
Metals and minerals in
discarded products
Demand for
metals and minerals
R&D
Demand for
products and services
Recovery from
manufacturing scrap
Mine development
and operationProduct
development
Recycling technology
Supply of
metals and minerals
Manufacturing technol.
Technology mix
(dominant & emerging)
Propensity
to buy
Purchasing
capacity
Population
Raw materials processing
Speci
fic r
egula
tory
and s
oci
al e
nvi
ronm
ent
Specific regulatory and
social environment
Modified after Tercero Espinoza & Wittmer:
On the influence of technological change and
substitution on the demand for non-energy raw
materials. In: Wittmer & Sievers (Hrsg.):
Thematic Report V: Developments on the raw
material markets, 2015, 82–109 ,
http://minerals4eu.brgm-rec.fr/node/45532
© Fraunhofer ISI
Examining raw material demand for emerging technologies
Examine
technologiesIf both „high“
Collection of candidate
technologies
Rapid assessment
Market
potential
Raw material
requirements
Selected technologies
cf. Marscheider-Weidemann, Langkau, Hummen, Erdmann, Tercero Espinoza, Angerer, Marwede & Benecke (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Selected technology portfol io (42 technologies)
Transport Tailored blanks (lightweight vehicles) Electrical traction motors (vehicles) PEM-Fuel cells (electric vehicles) Supercapacitors (for motor vehicles) Scandium alloys (aircraft) Autopilot (motor vehicles) Drones
ICT & optical technologies Lead-free solders RFID – Radio Frequency Indentification Flat panel displays (focus on ITO) Infrared detectors for night vision White LED Optical fibers Capacitors (microelectronics) Hight-performance microchips
Electrical engineering, energy High-efficiency industrial electric motors Thermoelectric generators Dye-sensitized solar cells Thin film solar cells Solar thermal power stations SOFC- Stationary fuel cells CCS - Carbon capture and storage Lithium ion batteries (for vehicles) Redox-flow batteries Vacuum isolation Inductive energy transmission Thermal storage Micro-energy harvesting Wind power plants
Medical technologies Orthopaedic implants Medical tomography
Chemical, environmental & mechanical engineering Synthetic fuels Sea water desalination Solid-state lasers for manufacturing Nano-silver
Material science & technology Superalloys High-temperature superconductors Hich-performance permanent magnets Industry 4.0 Carbon fibers (lightweighting) Carbon nanotubes Additive manufacturing („3D printing“)
Marscheider-Weidemann, Langkau, Hummen, Erdmann, Tercero Espinoza, Angerer, Marwede & Benecke (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Selected technology portfol io (42 technologies)
Transport Tailored blanks (lightweight vehicles) Electrical traction motors (vehicles) PEM-Fuel cells (electric vehicles) Supercapacitors (for motor vehicles) Scandium alloys (aircraft) Autopilot (motor vehicles) Drones
ICT & optical technologies Lead-free solders RFID – Radio Frequency Indentification Flat panel displays (focus on ITO) Infrared detectors for night vision White LED Optical fibers Capacitors (microelectronics) Hight-performance microchips
Electrical engineering, energy High-efficiency industrial electric motors Thermoelectric generators Dye-sensitized solar cells Thin film solar cells Solar thermal power stations SOFC- Stationary fuel cells CCS - Carbon capture and storage Lithium ion batteries (for vehicles) Redox-flow batteries Vacuum isolation Inductive energy transmission Thermal storage Micro-energy harvesting Wind power plants
Medical technologies Orthopaedic implants Medical tomography
Chemical, environmental & mechanical engineering Synthetic fuels Sea water desalination Solid-state lasers for manufacturing Nano-silver
Material science & technology Superalloys High-temperature superconductors Hich-performance permanent magnets Industry 4.0 Carbon fibers (lightweighting) Carbon nanotubes Additive manufacturing („3D printing“)
Marscheider-Weidemann, Langkau, Hummen, Erdmann, Tercero Espinoza, Angerer, Marwede & Benecke (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
In depth analys is . Example: Wind power
Available technologies for wind power
with an without permanent magnets
Materials contained per technology
Considered: Fe, Cu, Al, Cr, Ni, Mo, Mn, Zn, Nd, Pr, Dy, Tb
Considering production scrap
Scenarios for technology variation
Share of NdFeB magnets
Dy/Tb content in NdFeB magnets
Scenarios for wind power
based on Marscheider-Weidemann et al. (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
In depth analys is . Example: L ithium -ion batter ies
Available technologies
Focus on different cathode materials
Consider different capacities and lithium contents
Materials contained per technology
Considered: Co, Ni, Mn, Li
Scenarios for technology variation
Market penetration of electric vehicles of different types
based on Marscheider-Weidemann et al. (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Example: Lithium
Lithium-ion batteries
Lightweight alloys for aircraft
For each raw material : aggregate over al l technologies studied and put into context ( I I )
Marscheider-Weidemann et al. (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Example: Copper
Electrical traction motors (vehicles)
RFID - Radio Frequency Indentification
Capacitors (microelectronics)
Thin film solar cells
Carbon capture and storage
Inductive energy transmission
Micro energy harvesting
Wind power plants
Medical tomography
High-temperature superconductors
Additive manufacturing (3D printing)
For each raw material : aggregate over al l technologies studied and put into context ( I )
Marscheider-Weidemann et al. (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Aggregation over al l emerging technologies studied
Marscheider-Weidemann, Langkau, Hummen, Erdmann, Tercero Espinoza, Angerer, Marwede & Benecke (2016). Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016. DERA Rohstoffinformationen 28. Berlin
© Fraunhofer ISI
Copper contained in foreign trade (2014)
Tercero Espinoza & Soulier:
Mineral Economics29 (2016) 47-56,
http://rdcu.be/mQ8e
© Fraunhofer ISI
Dynamics of copper trade
China’s growth visible in
copper imports as concentrate and metal
copper exports in final products
Latin America has supplied the copper for most of this growth
Europe remains a strong user of copper
Tercero Espinoza & Soulier: Mineral Economics 29 (2016) 47-56, http://rdcu.be/mQ8e
© Fraunhofer ISI
Products at the end of their l i fet ime are a source of raw materials
Soulier, Glöser-Chahoud, Goldmann & Tercero Espinoza (2017) Resourc. Conserv. Recycl., acceptedGlöser, Soulier & Tercero Espinoza: Environ. Sci. Technol. 47 (2013) 6564–6572 http://dx.doi.org/10.1021/es400069b
© Fraunhofer ISI
WS 4: Strategic Raw Materials and Sustainable DevelopmentDr. Luis A. TERCERO ESPINOZA
FUTURE GLOBAL NEEDS FOR CRITICAL RAW MATERIALS AND THEIR RELATION TO SDGs
(c) shutterstock.com/Dario Lo Presti, sezer66, Maciej NoskowskiLuis Tercero Espinoza
