Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are ......Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October...

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Company Confidential ©2012 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved. This Ain’t No Party. This Ain’t No Disco. This Ain’t No Fooling Around. Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are Tight. What Now?

Transcript of Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are ......Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October...

Page 1: Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are ......Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018 14 Mortgage Market Improving Borrower Credit History Mortgage Origination Dominated

Company Confidential ©2012 Genworth Financial, Inc. All rights reserved.

This Ain’t No Party. This Ain’t No Disco. This Ain’t No Fooling Around.

Rates Are Up Changing.

Inventory Is Down.

Margins Are Tight. What Now?

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1Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

Crazy

Patsy Cline

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2Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

Crazy

Cee Lo Green

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3Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

Let’s Go

Crazy

Prince

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Framing It Up

4

Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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Environment

Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

YOU

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7Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

What Are Your Hurdles?

Rate

Inventory

Margins

Technology / Digitization

Process / Customer Experience

Everyone Has These Hurdles

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No More Tears

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9Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018

$Trillion Refi Market Has Ended

Total Origination Down ~20% Since ‘16

Refinance Activity Has Fallen by Half Since ‘16 Purchase Activity Growth Also Slowing

1,274

1,095978

1,520

1,138

517

822

1,010

660

485

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Refinance Origination ($B)

09-17 Avg:

$1T

But There

Will Not Be

Enough

Growth To

Offset

Lower Refi

Volume

566 535 517600

734783

913

1,0601,140 1,175

-5.5%-3.4%

16.1%

22.3%

6.7%

16.6% 16.1%

7.5%

3.1%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Purchase

Growth Rate

Purchase Origination ($B)

1,840 1,630 1,495 2,120 1,872 1,300 1,735 2,070 1,800 1,660

69% 67% 65%72%

61%

40%

47% 49%

37%

29%

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Total

Refi Mix

Total Origination ($B)

Lender Profitability Down

395362 370385

353377

17Q1 17Q4 18Q1

Revenue

Expense

Revenue vs Expense

(bps)

10bps 9 bps (8) bpsProfit/(Loss)

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10Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018

Rates Rising, But…

2.91

4.57

1.82

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16 18

Interest Rates

10-year Treasury 30-year Mortgage Fed Funds

Source: Federal Reserve Board, Freddie Mac

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11Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018

Strong First-Time Buyer Demand

Homebuyer Demographics To Stay Positive Homeownership Rate On the Rise

84.084.6

85.3

86.286.9

87.588.0

88.4 88.7 88.9 89.0

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Population Between the Ages of 25 and 44

(Millions)

3MM Homebuyers

Entered Market

2MM More to Come

39.743.1

34.6 35.3 35.3 36.5

67.269.2

58.5 59.0 59.8 60.0

99 Peak (04) Trough(16)

17 1Q18 2Q18

Under 35

35 - 44

Homeownership Rate (%)

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~80% FTB Need MI*

12

* PMI, FHA, VA

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13Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018

Job Market Tightens

More Leverage to Workers

Job Growth Up, Unemployment Down Job Market Tightens

Share of Total Job Growth

Job Growth Going to Young Workers

470

-870

460

-1,820

280

1,2401,540

94-99 00-03 04-06 07-09 10-12 13-16 17-18

25 – 44 Year Old Job Growth

(‘000, 4Q Change)

65%47%18%72%18%-186%19%

2,710 2,340 2,180 660 650 570

5.34.9

4.44.1 3.9 3.8

2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

Job Growth

Unemployment Rate

Job Growth (‘000) and Unemployment Rate (%)

1.6 1.4 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9

2.32.6 2.5

2.7 2.7 2.8

2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

Available Worker/Available Jobs Wage Growth

Available Worker Per Job Opening and Wage Growth (%)

2,810 3,030 3,190 3,260 3,440 3,580

2.0

2.1

2.2 2.2

2.3

2.4

2015 2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18

Quits Quits Rate

Quits Per Month (‘000, SA) and Quits Rate (%)

SEP-YTD: 1.9MM

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14Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018

Mortgage Market

Improving Borrower Credit History

Mortgage Origination Dominated by Agencies

1,201 1,092 963 1,438 1,174 767 967 1,148 1,008 918

344

282

190

232

212

135

234

256237

197

74

69

80

128

130

111

154

203

173183

97

104

170

225

272

235

328

383

320300

10

818

23

18

21

24

32

3845

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Conventional FHA VA USDA Jumbo Expanded Credit

Total Origination ($B)

Swelling of 700+ FICO Borrowers

690

686

704

2005-1

0

2006-1

0

2007-1

0

2008-0

4

2008-1

0

2009-0

4

2009-1

0

2010-0

4

2010-1

0

2011-0

4

2011-1

0

2012-0

4

2012-1

0

2013-0

4

2013-1

0

2014-0

4

2014-1

0

2015-0

4

2015-1

0

2016-0

4

2016-1

0

2017-0

4

2017-1

0

2018-0

4

Average FICO Score

53.9

53.1

53.9

54.7

55.8

56.8

58.2

Percent of Population with 700+ FICO

Credit

Improvement

Accelerated

Since ‘14

Conventional

GNMA

Non-Agency

Mod. Growth in

Expanded Credit,

Prime Jumbo, and

Portfolio Conforming

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15Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

Fhfa.gov

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2 Newsletters

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Robchrisman.com

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Customer

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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So, What’s Their Story?

Median Age All Buyers 46 (+1)

Median Age FTB (33% of All) 32 (same since 2016)

Median Age Repeat Buyers 55 (+1)

All Buyers

18 - 24 2% (0)

25 - 34 24% (-2)

35 - 44 22% (+1)

45 - 54 15% (-1)

55 - 64 18% (0)

65 - 74 15% (+2)

Over 74 5% (+1)

Buyers in the Northeast and Midwest tended to be younger,

while buyers in the West and South regions tended to be older.

Millennials

Gen X

Boomers

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I Got You Babe…Oh, Maybe Not.

24Introduction to the Mortgage Industry

All Buyers First Time Buyers

The share of Married Couples 63% (-2) 54% (-3)

The share of Single Females 18% (0) 18% (0)

The share of Single Males 9% (2) 10% (3)

The share of Unmarried Couples 8% (0) 16% (0)

Number of Children Under 18 Residing in Household

All Buyers First Time Buyers

None 66% (3) 62%

One 15% (1) 20%

Two 13% (-2) 12%

Three or more 6% (-1) 6%

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What About Furry Feet?

25Introduction to the Mortgage Industry

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26NAR 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

https://petlas.world/

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27NAR 2018 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers

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You

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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Leadership

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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Leadership Defined…

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The Ability And Willingness Of Others To Follow

They Will Follow If…

You Can Help Them Get What They Want

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Leadership Defined…

32

The Ability And Willingness Of Others To Follow

They Will Follow If…

You Can Help Them Get What They Want

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Leadership Checklist

Envisioning‏

Enrolling‏

Empowering‏

Energizing‏

1) Are you committed to

excellence?

2) Are you willing to put in

the effort?

3) Do you have my best

interest at heart?

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Leadership Checklist

Envisioning‏

Enrolling‏

Empowering‏

Energizing‏

1) Are you committed to

excellence?

2) Are you willing to put in

the effort?

3) Do you have my best

interest at heart?

SINCERITY

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Teamwork

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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Trends in Teams

36

Sales

Team

Processing

Team

Marketing

Team

Underwriting

Team

Closing

Team

Management

Team

Page 38: Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are ......Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018 14 Mortgage Market Improving Borrower Credit History Mortgage Origination Dominated

Trends in Teams

37

LO / Manager

LOA / Marketing

Processor / JR

Underwriter

Closer / Stip ChaserUnderwriting

Team

Corporate

Management

Team

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38www.smartermi.com

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5 Keys To A Successful Team

Impactful Work 5‏

Meaning of Work 4‏

Structure and Clarity 3‏

Dependability 2‏

Psychological Safety 1‏

https://rework.withgoogle.com/blog/five-keys-to-a-successful-google-team/

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Change

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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All Things Are Not Equal

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Negative Seduction

45

“Bad emotions, bad parents

and bad feedback have more

impact than good ones. Bad

impressions and bad

stereotypes are quicker to

form and more resistant to

disconfirmation than good

ones.”

Page 47: Rates Are Up Changing. Inventory Is Down. Margins Are ......Genworth US Mortgage Insurance October 2018 14 Mortgage Market Improving Borrower Credit History Mortgage Origination Dominated

Negative Seduction

46

Alison Ledgerwood

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7XFLTDQ4JMk

70% Success

Viewed Positively

30% Failure

Viewed Negatively

30% Failure

Switched To Negative

70% Success

Stayed Negative

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The Great Golf Analogy

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Change

48

Question For You

Time

Contact List

QCB

Out Of Sight

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Deal Of the Day

Alarm Clock – Music Choice

Dictate Hands Free Text

Message

Make Donations

MyPetDoc

Order Pizza

Recipes

Play Music

Personal Trainer

Check Credit Card Balance

Check Stock Prices

Find Restaurants

Drink Recipes

Meow – Talks To Your Cats

Sound Box

Lights On/Off

TV

Robot Vacuums

Start Your Car

TaskRabbit

Nest

Schedule Meetings

Podcasts

Day In History

Sports Scores

Pregnancy Tips

Meditate

Get First Aid

70,000 Skills

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Creativity

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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Creativity – Small Changes

54

Fiction

Add One Letter – R

Friction

Change One Letter – I

Fraction

One More Small Change

Action

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55Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

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56Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

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57Presentation Title Insert Legal Copy

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Framing It Up

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Leadership

Teamwork

Creativity

Change

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facebook.com/thatMIguy

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Contact Info

Steve Richman‏

[email protected]

870-2519 919‏

– Please Join Me‏

LinkedIn: www.linkedin.com/in/steverichman‏

Facebook: www.facebook.com/ThatMIGuy‏

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Legal Disclaimer‏ Genworth Mortgage Insurance is happy to provide you with these

training materials. While we strive for accuracy, we also know that any

discussion of laws and their application to particular facts is subject to

individual interpretation, change, and other uncertainties. Our training is not

intended as legal advice, and is not a substitute for advice of counsel. You

should always check with your own legal advisors for interpretations of legal

and compliance principles applicable to your business.

‏ GENWORTH EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ANY AND ALL WARRANTIES,

EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, INCLUDING WITHOUT LIMITATION WARRANTIES OF

MERCHANTABILITY AND FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE, WITH

RESPECT TO THESE MATERIALS AND THE RELATED TRAINING. IN NO

EVENT SHALL GENWORTH BE LIABLE FOR ANY DIRECT, INDIRECT,

INCIDENTAL, PUNITIVE, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES OF ANY KIND

WHATSOEVER WITH RESPECT TO THE TRAINING AND THE MATERIALS.

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