Rapid Transit and Surrey's needs

7/29/2019 Rapid Transit and Surrey's needs

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Rapid transit and Surreys needsExamining the modal shift in TransLinksSurrey Rapid Transit Study alternatives


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What is:Mode shareModal shift

Mode share descr

number of trips or ptravelers using a partransportation. Oftepercentage of walkipublic transit, and a

Modal shift can dbetween transporta

a shift from driving tbe influenced by sevi.e. cost of driving, nlines, personal choic


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Current modal split+ 2040 targetsSurrey and area

Poor transit optdiscouraging tra

Current transit mSurrey and area

84% of trips ma

2041 modal shifreduces car trip

Source: Surrey Rapid Tran


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Increasing car use is aproblem for SurreyandMetro Vancouver

200474

290698

299224 3

36165

SUR REY V AN COUVE R

Registered

vehicles in

Metro

Vancouver

2001 2011

98750

45467

27276

28010

11400

79617

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% of growth

Vehicle registrations

growth 2001-2011Other cities

Richmond

Tri-Cities

Burnaby + New West

Vancouver

Surrey

98,750 nbetween

Surrey savehicle re

2001 anddouble tof 24.4%

Vehicle rSurrey isregional

Surrey sagrowth tBurnaby,Richmon

Car use ifaster thVancouv

Data source


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0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Vehicle registrations growth 1999-2013

Surrey + White Rock Vancouver

Burnaby + New West Tri-Cities

Richmond Langley

North + West Van Maple Ridge + Pitt Meadows

Fa20

Sur

49

Lan

38

M.R

37

Reg

24

Tri-

23

Bur

18

Van

15Data source: Metro Vancouver, ICBC


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Vehicle reg. growpopulation increa

Population increaamong fastest in

70% of [upcominMetro Vancouverin the South of Fr

Both outpace roaincrease each yea

Impacts to congeeconomy, health,

Modal shift to traand cycling are a

3%

4.30%

0.65%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

4.0%

4.5%

5.0%

Growth rate in %

Surrey growth rates

Avg. annual population increase (2001-11)

Avg. annual vehicle reg. increase (2001-11)

Avg. annual lane-km increase (2007-10)


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Surrey RapidTransit Study

TransLink initiative to study rapid transit for Su Rapid transit supposed to address issue of incre


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Surrey RapidTransit StudyAlternatives


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Surrey RapidTransit StudyFinal 4

Alternatives


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Surrey RapidTransit StudyFinal analysis

This analysis can be downloaded at:

skytrainforsurrey.org/2013/03/11/exclusive-download-final-surrey-rap

Final analyAugust 20

536-pagesevaluation

PDF relea
http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_7/skytrainforsurrey.org/2013/03/11/exclusive-download-final-surrey-rapid-transit-report/http://localhost/var/www/apps/conversion/tmp/scratch_7/skytrainforsurrey.org/2013/03/11/exclusive-download-final-surrey-rapid-transit-report/


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Analyzing the analysisA closer look at the mode-share expectations of thSurrey Rapid Transit alternatives


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Study admits thatno option will meetmodal-shift targets

All alternatives will attract few newtransit trips

Most alternatives will shift bus trips rather than a

This includes SkyTrain to Langley and full LRT ne

Source: Final Analysis PDF page 17


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2040 mode sharepredictions for finalalternativesvs. regional goal

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

BRT

network

LRT to

Langley +BRT

Full LRT

network

RRT to

Langley +BRT

Regional

goal

2041 study area mode-shares

(AM peak hour, to/from/within)

Transit % Transit + walking + cycling %

All alternatithan 20% shgoal for trancycling

Remaining t(over 70%) i

Source: Final Analy


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0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

BRT

network

LRT to

Langley +BRT

Full LRT

network

RRT to

Langley +BRT

Regional

goal

2041 study area mode-shares

(AM peak hour, within only)


All alternatithan 15% shgoal for trancycling

Transit mod(under 15%)

Remaining t

(over 65%) i

Source: Final Analy


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0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

BRT

network

LRT to

Langley +BRT

Full LRT

network

RRT to

Langley +BRT

Regional

goal

2041 mode-shares

(AM peak hour)

Transit + walking + cycling % (region)

Transit + walking + cycling % (study area)

Metro Vancaverage mohit 50% goa(Surrey, etc)be lower thVancouver

Source: Final Analysi


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Demand-sidemeasures vs.regional goal

TDM (transpmanagemen28% increasshare compa

Alternatives

despite demor TDM if waequivalent mtransit.

Walking + cyextremely ufor regional

TDM scenargrowth (aborelated costshorten on aincreasing dwalking & cy

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

BRT network LRT to Langley

+ BRT

RRT to Langley

+ BRT

Regional goal

2041 study area mode-shares with TDM

(AM peak hour, to/from/within)


Source: Final Anal


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Conclusion

Modal shift rate on all proposed Surrey Rapid Transit optfall short of targets, in spite of transportation demand

Because of this, all Surrey Rapid Transit options do not fstudy objectives despite that TransLink has misleadingobjectives are met with the final 4 options

Study area anticipated mode-share to be lower than reaverage; additional sustainable mode share in South of for modal shift goal to be met across the Metro Vancouv

City of Surrey will require millions of dollars to deal with

+ its implications on community safety, health, etc. as a not enough investment in rapid transit

New options need to be created that make a bigger imcreate more modal shift to transit in order to fully addre


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Assessing the impactsComparing the planned impact of the Surrey Rapidalternatives vs. what rapid transit has done in Vanc


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Modal shift inVancouver1996-2006

During this period, the MillenniumLine SkyTrain line as well as the 99and 98 B-Lines were introduced.

As well, Mark II train service wasinitiated on the Expo Line toimprove service and ride quality.

Source: Vancouver Transportation Plan Updatehttp://www.tac-atc.ca/english/annualconference/tac2012/docs/session18/krueger.pdf
http://www.tac-atc.ca/english/annualconference/tac2012/docs/session18/krueger.pdfhttp://www.tac-atc.ca/english/annualconference/tac2012/docs/session18/krueger.pdf


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Modal shift inVancouver1996-2006

During this period, the 99 B-Line, 98B-Line and Millennium LineSkyTrain line were introduced. As

well, Mark II train service wasinitiated on the Expo Line toimprove service.



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Surrey rapidtransit modalshift expectation2021-2041

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

BRT

network

LRT to

Langley +

BRT

Full LRT

network

RRT to

Langley +

BRT

Study area mode share

(to/from/within)

2021 (opening year) to 2041

Mode share in 2021 (opening day) Mode share in 20413.18 3.28

2

2.53

3.5

4

BRT network LRT to

Langley +BRT

Study area m

2021 (opening y

Additional mode sha

26.72%27.80%

20%

22%

24%

26%

28%

30%

BRT

network

LRT to

Langley +

BRT

Study area m

2021 (opening y

Mode-share

Source: Final Analysis PDF page 342-344


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Comparison 1Surrey 2021-2041 vsVancouver 1996-2006

3.01

3.183.28

3.21 3.17

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

Vancouver

1996-2006

Surrey 2021-

2041, BRT1

Surrey 2021-

2041, LRT5a

Surrey 2021-

2041, LRT1

Surrey 2021-

2041, RRT1

Expected modal shift to transit

Additional transit mode-share captured in %

Vancattracomshiftcomexpeapprafterany r

Sources: Final Analysis PDF page 342-344,

Vancouver Transportation Plan Update

TDM adjustments are not included in this comparison as such measures had not been implementedof Vancouver. See report: Assessing the potential for road and parking charges to reduce demand focommuting in the Greater Vancouver region, page 9 - http://research.rem.sfu.ca/theses/Washbroo
http://research.rem.sfu.ca/theses/WashbrookKevin_2002_MRM298.pdfhttp://research.rem.sfu.ca/theses/WashbrookKevin_2002_MRM298.pdf


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0.3

0.159 0.164 0.1605 0.1585

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Vancouver1996-2006

Surrey 2021-2041, BRT1

Surrey 2021-2041, LRT5a

Surrey 2021-2041, LRT1

Surrey 2021-2041, RRT1

Average yearly modal shift to transit

Average yearly additional transit mode-share captured in %

PreviotransitcapturtwiceannuatransitSurrey

option



TDM adjustments are not included in this comparison as such measures had not been implementedof Vancouver. See report: Assessing the potential for road and parking charges to reduce demand focommuting in the Greater Vancouver region, page 9 - http://research.rem.sfu.ca/theses/Washbroo


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1.73%

1.34%1.39% 1.36%

1.29%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

Vancouver

1996-2006

Surrey 2021-

2041, BRT1

Surrey 2021-

2041, LRT5a

Surrey 2021-

2041, LRT1

Surrey 2021-

2041, RRT1

Average yearly modal shift

Average yearly transit mode share growth

Surreyannuawith atransitVancoseen pCanad



TDM adjustments are not included in this comparison as such measures had not been implementedof Vancouver. See report: Assessing the potential for road and parking charges to reduce demand fo

commuting in the Greater Vancouver region, page 9 - http://research.rem.sfu.ca/theses/Washbroo


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Sub-area transitmode-shares inSurrey andLangley

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

Transit mode-shares for study sub-are

with BRT network with LRT to Langley + BRT with full LRT network with

Source: Final Analysis PDF page 87


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Modal shift inDowntownVancouver1996-2006

Vancouver has s

reduced amountentering downtoin 15 years, desppopulation and j

Opened in this pMillennium LineSkyTrain, 99 and

Line up until intrCanada Line



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Modal shift inDowntownVancouver1996-2006



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Comparison 4Downtown Surrey 2041 vsDowntown Vancouver 2006Both cases are measurements 20years after rapid transit

41.28%

26.60% 26.60% 26.50% 26.90%

0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Downtown

Vancouver

2006

Downtown

Surrey 2041

with BRT1

Downtown

Surrey 2041

with LRT5a

Downtown

Surrey 2041

with LRT1

Downtown

Surrey 2041

with RRT1

Measurement of transit mode-share

Transit mode share* (see note)

Downtoto have mtransit mDowntow

* Downtown Surrey estimates consider trips leaving City Centre (i.e. onthe Expo Line towards Burnaby and Downtown Vancouver, or reversecommutes), whereas Downtown Vancouver numbers do not. Downtown

Vancouver numbers average to/within trip mode share.


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Most pedestrianfriendly city inCanada

These argood trareductio

Vancouvpedestrin Canad

Of all ne

downtowpedestrineighboVancouv


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Comparison 5Proposed Surrey bus networkvs. 2006 Vancouver network(bus networks after 20 years ofrapid transit)

All rapid transit alternatives to be complemented with BAU trSource: Final Analysis PDF page 242-245

Surrey 2041 bus n


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Comparison 5Proposed Surrey bus networkvs. 2006 Vancouver network(bus networks after 20 years ofrapid transit)

Surrey 2041 bus nbe far more estabVancouvers 2006routes to maintaservice within 15Surrey/SOF after transit.

Busy Vancouver bof frequent transi2006 (i.e. 20 yearsincluded: 17, 25, 4

Vancouver bus ronot existbefore 2

Many Vancouver

years after rapid tprovide service wpeak hour (26, 27,

Mode share goalsVancouver for intin 2006 are not myears of rapid tranmore established Source: Final Analysis PDF page 242-245,

TransLink 2008 press releaseCPTDB Wiki on CMBC bus routes

Full tables on final analysis PDF page 242-245


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Conclusion

Modal shift rates on all proposed Surrey Rapid Transit clearly inferior to Vancouver achievements

Surrey-wide achievements after 20 years of rapid trancompletely inferior to what Vancouver has achieved ayears

Auto use to remain dominant in the City of Surrey whVancouver has already met goals and other cities witrapid transit will follow.

Vehicles entering/within Surrey will increase with popjobs, and the city will require millions of dollars to addissue as a tradeoff for not enough investment in rapi


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Surreys preference vs. regionComparing the impacts of Surreys preferred LRT sthe regional modal shift goals


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City of Surrey:Rapid Transit Now

City of Surrey is in support of city-wide LRT network (LRTand opposed to any SkyTrain alternative

Basis of supporting LRT is largely based around shapinggrowth as opposed to addressing transportation issues

All rail rapid transit types effective at growth-shaping; mby Council and staff ignore growth attraction potential o


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City of SurreyLRT proposalLRT1

Surrey Mayorsee Light Railcorridors from

to Guildford, and Newton.


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Study areamode-sharewith LRT1 alt.

Evident that mogoals will not bewith full LRT net

550.00%

Regional

Transit, walking and

73.09%

15.01%

11.90%

26.91%

2041 study area mode shares

with LRT1

(AM peak hour,

to/from/within)

Auto Transit Walking/Cycling Source: Final Analysis P


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Study areamode-sharewith LRT1 alt.

Evident that mogoals will not bewith full LRT ne

550.00%

Regiona

Transit, walking and

66.78%

12.50%

20.72%

33.22%

2041 study area mode shares

with LRT1

(AM peak hour, within only)

Auto Transit Walking/Cycling Source: Final Analysis P


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Surrey 2021-2041 vsVancouver 1996-2006with LRT1 alternative

0.3

0.1605

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

Vancouver 1996-2006 Surrey 2021-2041, LRT1


Average yearly additional mode-share captured in %

Previous Vanccapture rate isexpected annucapture rate wnetwork in sur

Sources: Final Analysis PDF page 342-344,Vancouver Transportation Plan Update




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Surrey 2021-2041 vsVancouver 1996-2006with LRT1 alternative

1.73%

1.36%

0.00%

0.20%

0.40%

0.60%

0.80%

1.00%

1.20%

1.40%

1.60%

1.80%

2.00%

Vancouver 1996-2006 Surrey 2021-2041, LRT1


Average yearly mode share growth

Surrey to see slomodal shift withthan Vancouver previously beforebuilt

Sources: Final Analysis PDF page 342-344,Vancouver Transportation Plan Update



LRT1 Benefits-Costs


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LRT benefits vscosts

-2000

-1500

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

MILLIONS

LRT1 Benefits-Costs

Benefits Net Costs Final Net Present Value

LRT1 estimatednot exceed cost

Taxpayers to pain costs for $1.1 benefits. Net lo

Sources: Final Analysis PDF pages 349-369


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Conclusion

City vision for LRT will bring and shape smart growth;completely fails to address transportation issues, incauto use growth rate in Metro Van

City of Surrey must change its rapid transit vision to transportation issues

City of Surrey will require millions of dollars to deal wiuse + its implications on community safety, health, etc

off for not enough investment in rapid transit


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What Surrey really neThe real solution to Surreys real problem


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Slow transit doesnt make peoplelive slower lives. Instead, it makespeople use their cars because thosebecome the only way to access thecity quickly

Jarrett WalkerPublic Transit Planning Consultant, author of Human Transit


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The Surrey LRT conceptvideo looks stunning andbeautiful, but misleads.Where is the congestionSurrey will be facing?


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The Solution isbigger than LRT

Much bigger solution is needed for Surrey

SkyTrain expansion is needed on all 3 proposed corrconsistent area-wide modal shift to meet goals

Above: two proposals being worked on by Better Surr


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SkyTrain expansion is needed on all 3 potential corrconsistent area-wide modal shift to meet goals

Above: conceptual image of SkyTrain in Fraser Highw


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SkyTrain expansion will require more infrastructure & affvisual concerns must be put aside in favour of addressin

Above: conceptual image of median SkyTrain station fro


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SkyTrain isbetter transit

SkyTrain(grade-separated

Full grade segre

better reliabilit

Current SkyTrathan 96% on-t

Higher speed (

Higher capacitpotential to de

beyond 2041

Better off-peafrequencies du

Light Rail Transit(at-grade rail transit)

At-grade running meansinterfacing with other vehicles,pedestrians; risky environmentmay compromise reliability

All at-grade transit governed byspeed of road (50-60km/h)

Accidents blocking track cause

full disruption (i.e. accident atKGB & 88th will cause an LRTclosure until cleared)

Higher cost may lead to lower off-peak operating frequencies


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SkyTrain attractsmore riders ontotransit

New transit trips with LRT5a(LRT on Fraser Highway + BRT)

Alternative has total dailyridership of178,000 in 2041

4250 passengers peak load onFraser Highway

Just 12,500 new daily transittrips across region

Just 1.4 billion vehicle kmtravelled reduction to 2041

New transit trips w(RRT on Fraser Hig

Alternative has toridership of202,0

6600 passengersFraser Highway

24,500 new dailyacross region

2.4 billion vehicletravelled reducti

SkyTrain attracts 2x as many new tra

Sources: Final Analysis PDF page 171

d i kl d k


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Canada Line SkyTrOpened in August 2009

Original projectiodaily ridership of 1and 141,000 by 20

Summer 2011 ride

136,000 daily (weboardings)

Averaged growth68000 riders year

Portland MAX LRT 85kmOpened 1986, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2009

MAX LRT lines have often notgenerated ridership meetingprojections

Total MAX system ridership in

2011 was recorded at 132,500daily (weekday boardings)

Averaged growth rate: approx.5100 riders yearly

Sources: TransLink media releasesTriMet ridership data (Portland)

Canada Line has more riders in 3 yeaentire MAX LRT system has in 26 y


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Canada Lineridership vs. projections

42500

22200

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Average week

Projected ridership by 1990

Actual ridership by 1990 (4



Portland MAX LRridership vs. p

100000

141000136259

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

Average weekday boardings

Projected ridership by 2013 (4 years of operation)

Projected ridership by 2021 (12 years of operation)

Actual ridership by 2011 (2 years of operation)

Sources: TransLink media releasesTriMet ridership data (Portland)

Report by Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Portland State University


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SkyTrain riderscare abouttravel times

2011 Canada Linfound trip speemost liked aspe

Trip speed garnlikes than next-(system cleanlinalmost 3x

Survey found mfrequency ridersvalued frequenc

Survey found ovwas least liked aCanada Line (i.eimportant to rid

Source: Satisfaction with Canada Line and Connecting Buses survey by TransLink & NRG Research Group


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LRT vs SkyTrainridership projections

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

King George Blvd to

Newton

Fraser Highway

2041 forecast peak load(passengers per hour per direction)

Bus Rapid Transit Light Rail Transit SkyTrain

Average ridershSkyTrain over L53% on both co

Indicates commridership estimaused, can be extother corridors


f k l d


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LRT vs SkyTrainridership projections

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Passengers per hour per direction during peak

2041 forecast peak load(passengers per hour per direction)

Bus Rapid Transit on all corridors (BRT1)

LRT to Langley only + BRT

SkyTrain to Langley only + BRT

Light Rail Transit on all corridors (LRT1)

SkyTrain on all corridors (estimate)

Peak hour load shigher with SkyTcorridors versuscorridors or anyarrangement

More passengertransit = more trshare = less peo

closer to modal


Life-cycle cost returns of alternatives


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LRT vs SkyTrainbenefits

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

BRT network LRT to Langley+ BRT

Full LRTnetwork

SkyTrain toLangley + BRT

Millions

Travel Time Savings Other Travel Benefits

Auto Operating Cost Savinsg Collission Cost Savings

Fare revenue GHG emissions

Travel timefor SkyTrai

BRT exceeother BRT

SkyTrain togenerates the cost reLangley + B

SkyTrain gtravel timeas LRT


Life-cycle cost returns of alternatives


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LRT vs SkyTrainbenefits

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Full LRT network SkyTrain to Langley+ BRT

SkyTrain on allcorridors (estimate)

Millions

Travel Time Savings Other Travel Benefits

Auto Operating Cost Savinsg Collission Cost Savings

Fare revenue GHG Emission reductions

SkyTrain o

could genein benefits

Benefits wall corridorthan 3x a fu

1.46x the cSkyTrain toBRT



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SkyTrain willget morepeople out oftheir cars

Reduction in am

vehicles enterinbetween 1996-2coincides with aSkyTrain expanthis period

2011 Canada Linfound 45% of re

formerly comm(single-occupan

Sources: Vancouver Transportation Plan UpdateSatisfaction with Canada Line and Connecting Buses survey by TransLink & NRG Research Group


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SkyTrain canshape growth

More than $8 development

Richmond witthrough Canad

Strict coordinato control groSkyTrain line

Innovative ancoordinated ldirects develoseveral chara


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How to makeSkyTrain amore feasibleoption

Discussing this can help address concerns about cost

Potential ways to address cost issue could include: separate liinfrastructure but shorter (3-car?) trains and stations (Betterside-running (to avoid median utility relocation), alternate ali

Central-Guildford), over-street stations without mezzanines, parking lots (i.e. at Willowbrook), funding participation from d

Potential ways to address visual issue could include: shorter tover-street stations without mezzanines, build stations over pWillowbrook), guideway profile/construction method (i.e. ExpLine), integration tactics as with Canada Line in Richmond


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Conclusion

SkyTrain (grade-separated rapid transit) presents bet

opportunity for modal shift goals to be met City of Surrey must change its rapid transit vision to

transportation issues. New rapid transit vision will reqincorporation ofgrade-separated rapid transit to me

City-wide SkyTrain expansion introduces potential to more billions of dollars in benefits than city-wide LR

City of Surrey should explore how SkyTrain can be mafeasible option (addressing cost + visual concerns)


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Better SurreyRapid Transit

Daryl Dela Cruz Campaign Director and Exec of StatBenedic Dasalla Exec of Marketing & Communicatio

Neo Caines Exec of Infrastructure Analysis

This presentation was brought to you by advocates foRapid Transit.

Better Surrey Rapid Transit will continue to advocate fmeeting mode-share goals and addressing transportaif the City of Surrey does not correspond with these co

Website: skytrainforsurrey.org

Email us: [email protected]
http://skytrainforsurrey.org/mailto:infoskytrainforsurrey.orgmailto:infoskytrainforsurrey.orghttp://skytrainforsurrey.org/


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Thank youWe look forward to an improved outlook for Surreysforthcoming transportation issues and thank you for listening.

Rapid Transit and Surrey's needs

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