Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page...

9
Gold: Producer RMS.asx Buy Share Price Valuation $0.52 Price Target (12 month) $0.55 Brief Business Description: Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion Chairman & MD Top Shareholders Ruffer LLP 8.3% Van Eck Associates 7.0% Company Address Issued Capital - fully diluted Market Cap - fully diluted Cash + bullion (31 Dec 17) Debt (31 Dec 17) EV EV/Resource oz EV/Reserve oz Prelim. (A$m) FY17e FY18e FY19e Prod (koz Au) 124 206 212 Op Cash Flw (A$M) 66 107 129 Norm NPAT (A$M) 17 71 51 CF/Share (cps) 12 20.2 24.5 EPS (cps) 3.3 13.4 9.7 P/E 13.1 3.2 4.4 Au Resources (Moz) 3.8 Reserves (Moz) 0.9 John Macdonald Resource analyst Ph: +61 8 9268 3020 E: [email protected] 527m 24 Jan 2018 $0.430 Mark Zeptner (MD) Level 1, 130 Royal St East Perth, WA, 6004 Sensitive to cash flow returns and Edna May's long term mine plans in coming quarters. Robert Kennedy (Chairman) WA based gold producer and explorer. 538m A$226m A$231m A$164m A$43/oz A$0m A$62m A$49/oz This report was prepared solely by Hartleys Limited. ASX did not prepare any part of the report and has not contributed in any way to its content. The role of ASX in relation to the preparation of the research reports is limited to funding their preparation, by Hartleys Limited, in accordance with the ASX Equity Research Scheme. ASX does not provide financial product advice. The views expressed in this research report may not necessarily reflect the views of ASX. To the maximum extent permitted by law, no representation, warranty or RAMELIUS RESOURCES LTD (RMS) Cash build to accelerate. Ramelius returned Mt Magnet to form in the December 2017 half, re- establishing solid operating performance at all mines. Gold production from Mt Magnet and Vivien was 36.5kozs in the December 2017 quarter; the best return since the September quarter of 2016. Ramelius’ first quarter in charge of Edna May yielded 21.4kozs, which equalled the mine’s previous quarter under Evolution’s control, and confirmed the expected trend of head grades above 1 g/t. The Company’s cash and gold balance at the end of December 2017 was $62M; a quicker recovery in the cash balance after the Edna May acquisition than we anticipated. The second (June 2018) half is set up for cash and bullion on hand to rise further as several factors weigh in; A full half contribution from Edna May Higher budgeted head grades and production at Edna May. Water Tank Hill stopes operating for the entire half. Development capital and exploration expenditures down from $39M to $6M in the respective halves. Delivery into higher price forward gold sale contracts in the June 2018 half. Hartleys forecasts Ramelius’ cash and bullion balances will exceed $100M (20cps) by the end of June 2018. We have allowed for $10M more development and exploration expenditure than indicated by Ramelius, and have assumed no more production above guidance in FY2018. 2019 cutback option open FY2019 could be just as productive for Ramelius as FY2018 is shaping. Vivien, Water Tank Hill and the Mt Magnet pits will all be in full swing, while Edna May continues in the low strip ratio phase of the Stage 2 pit design, stockpiling excess ore. A low unit cost mine will probably be developed at Shannon. The big decision for Ramelius is whether to cut back the Edna May Stage 3 pit a potential $100M investment that will need to start early in FY2019. A go-ahead would forestall net cash flows, but also add up to 500kozs and 7 years to reserves and mine life respectively. Ramelius’ first drill results from the Edna May Stage 3 extensions are expected to be announced by the end of January 2018. At this point we model Stage 3 on an economic knife’s edge, while trusting RMS to make the call and execute. Upgrade from Accumulate to Buy Ramelius’ share price has stood still despite excellent results and a rising market. We think there are more good figures and at least a catch up rally in store for Ramelius shareholders over the next 12 months. Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000 Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys website www.hartleys.com.au 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 . 5. 10. 15. 20. 25. 30. 35. 40. 45. 50. Jan-18 Sep-17 Jun-17 Feb-17 Volume - RHS RMS Shareprice - LHS Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS A$ M Ramelius Resources Source: IRESS

Transcript of Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page...

Page 1: Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page 2 of 9 SUMMARY MODEL Ramelius Resources Buy RMS Market Information Directors Company

Page 1 of 9

Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS)

Gold

: P

rodu

ce

r

RMS.asxBuy

Share Price

Valuation $0.52

Price Target (12 month) $0.55

Brief Business Description:

Hartleys Brief Investment Conclusion

Chairman & MD

Top Shareholders

Ruffer LLP 8.3%

Van Eck Associates 7.0%

Company Address

Issued Capital

- fully diluted

Market Cap

- fully diluted

Cash + bullion (31 Dec 17)

Debt (31 Dec 17)

EV

EV/Resource oz

EV/Reserve oz

Prelim. (A$m) FY17e FY18e FY19e

Prod (koz Au) 124 206 212

Op Cash Flw (A$M) 66 107 129

Norm NPAT (A$M) 17 71 51

CF/Share (cps) 12 20.2 24.5

EPS (cps) 3.3 13.4 9.7

P/E 13.1 3.2 4.4

Au

Resources (Moz) 3.8

Reserves (Moz) 0.9

John Macdonald

Resource analyst

Ph: +61 8 9268 3020

E: [email protected]

527m

24 Jan 2018

$0.430

Mark Zeptner (MD)

Level 1, 130 Royal St

East Perth, WA, 6004

Sensitive to cash flow returns and Edna May's long term

mine plans in coming quarters.

Robert Kennedy (Chairman)

WA based gold producer and explorer.

538m

A$226m

A$231m

A$164m

A$43/oz

A$0m

A$62m

A$49/oz

This report was prepared solely by Hartleys Limited. ASX did

not prepare any part of the report and has not contributed in

any way to its content. The role of ASX in relation to the

preparation of the research reports is limited to funding their

preparation, by Hartleys Limited, in accordance with the ASX

Equity Research Scheme.  ASX does not provide financial

product advice. The views expressed in this research report

may not necessarily reflect the views of ASX. To the maximum

extent permitted by law, no representation, warranty or

RAMELIUS RESOURCES LTD (RMS)

Cash build to accelerate. Ramelius returned Mt Magnet to form in the December 2017 half, re-

establishing solid operating performance at all mines. Gold production from

Mt Magnet and Vivien was 36.5kozs in the December 2017 quarter; the best

return since the September quarter of 2016.

Ramelius’ first quarter in charge of Edna May yielded 21.4kozs, which

equalled the mine’s previous quarter under Evolution’s control, and confirmed

the expected trend of head grades above 1 g/t.

The Company’s cash and gold balance at the end of December 2017 was

$62M; a quicker recovery in the cash balance after the Edna May acquisition

than we anticipated.

The second (June 2018) half is set up for cash and bullion on hand to rise

further as several factors weigh in;

A full half contribution from Edna May

Higher budgeted head grades and production at Edna May.

Water Tank Hill stopes operating for the entire half.

Development capital and exploration expenditures down from $39M

to $6M in the respective halves.

Delivery into higher price forward gold sale contracts in the June 2018

half.

Hartleys forecasts Ramelius’ cash and bullion balances will exceed $100M

(20cps) by the end of June 2018. We have allowed for $10M more

development and exploration expenditure than indicated by Ramelius, and

have assumed no more production above guidance in FY2018.

2019 cutback option open FY2019 could be just as productive for Ramelius as FY2018 is shaping.

Vivien, Water Tank Hill and the Mt Magnet pits will all be in full swing, while

Edna May continues in the low strip ratio phase of the Stage 2 pit design,

stockpiling excess ore. A low unit cost mine will probably be developed at

Shannon.

The big decision for Ramelius is whether to cut back the Edna May Stage 3

pit – a potential $100M investment that will need to start early in FY2019. A

go-ahead would forestall net cash flows, but also add up to 500kozs and 7

years to reserves and mine life respectively. Ramelius’ first drill results from

the Edna May Stage 3 extensions are expected to be announced by the end

of January 2018. At this point we model Stage 3 on an economic knife’s edge,

while trusting RMS to make the call and execute.

Upgrade from Accumulate to Buy Ramelius’ share price has stood still despite excellent results and a rising

market. We think there are more good figures and at least a catch up rally in

store for Ramelius shareholders over the next 12 months.

Hartleys Limited ABN 33 104 195 057 (AFSL 230052) 141 St Georges Terrace, Perth, Western Australia, 6000

Hartleys does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the

firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single

factor in making their investment decision. Further information concerning Hartleys’ regulatory disclosures can be found on Hartleys

website www.hartleys.com.au

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

0.40

0.50

0.60

0.70

0.80

0.90

.

5.

10.

15.

20.

25.

30.

35.

40.

45.

50.

Jan-18Sep-17Jun-17Feb-17

Volume - RHS

RMS Shareprice - LHS

Sector (S&P/ASX SMALL RESOURCES) - LHS

A$ M

Ramelius Resources

Source: IRESS

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Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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SUMMARY MODEL

Ramelius Resources Buy

RMS

Market Information Directors Company InformationShare price $0.43 Robert Kennedy (Chairman) Level 1, 130 Royal StMarket Capitalisation $226m Mark Zeptner (MD) East Perth, WA, 6004Net cash (debt) $62m Michael Bohm (Non-Exec Director) +61 8 9202 1127

Issued Capital (F.pd) 527m Kevin Lines (Non-Exec Director) +61 8 9202 1138

Issued Capital (F.diluted) 538m www.rameliusresources.com.au

EV $165mValuation $0.52 Top Shareholders m shares %12 month price target $0.55 Ruffer LLP 43.4 8.3

Van Eck Associates 36.6 7.0

Profit & Loss Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21Production Summary Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Net Revenue A$M 206 336 369 306 277 Underground ore mined Mt 0.20 0.31 0.33 0.18 0.04Forward sales A$M 0 5 -5 -1 UG ore grade g/tAu 7.4 7.8 7.0 7.1 7.1Total Costs A$M -140 -235 -240 -220 -231 Open pit ore mined Mt 1.27 4.67 3.72 3.92 4.32EBITDA A$M 66 107 125 85 45 Open pit ore grade g/tAu 1.5 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 - margin 32% 32% 34% 28% 16% Mill Throughput Mt 1.89 3.77 4.35 4.10 4.36Depreciation/Amort A$M -42 -38 -50 -41 -53 Head grade g/t 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3EBIT A$M 23 68 75 45 -7Net Interest A$M 1 2 Gold (koz) 124 206 212 183 171Pre-Tax Profit A$M 25 71 75 45 -7 AISC A$/oz 1,205 1,107 1,079 1,119 1,243Tax Expense A$M -7 -24 -14NPAT A$M 17 71 51 31 -7 Costs Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21Abnormal Items A$M Cost per milled tonne $A/t 65 57 51 48 47Reported Profit A$M 17 71 51 31 -7 Total cash costs incl. royalty $A/oz 1047 1080 1066 1104 1227

+ depreciation & amortisation $A/oz 1385 1265 1301 1326 1534

Balance Sheet Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 All in sustaining costs (AISC) A$/oz 1205 1107 1079 1119 1243

Cash A$M 79 101 158 174 206 Price Assumptions Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21Other Current Assets A$M 34 50 50 50 50 AUDUSD 0.75 0.79 0.76 0.76 0.77Total Current Assets A$M 113 151 208 224 256 Gold US$/oz 1239 1285 1325 1275 1250Property, Plant & Equip. A$M 91 141 161 167 114 Gold A$/oz 1643 1635 1738 1671 1619Investments/expln A$M 19 19 19 19 19Deferred tax assets A$M 31 31 31 31 31 Hedging Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20Tot Non-Curr. Assets A$M 141 160 180 186 133 Hedged sales kozs 60 62 70 42Total Assets A$M 254 311 388 410 389 Hedged price A$/oz 1636 1723 1673 1673Short Term Borrowings A$M Hedge gain(loss) A$/M 0 5 -5 -1Other A$M 25 35 35 35 35 Hedged % 48% 30% 33% 23%Total Curr. Liabilities A$M 25 35 35 35 35Long Term Borrowings A$M Sensitivity AnalysisOther A$M 40 60 60 60 60 Valuation FY19 NPATTotal Non-Curr. Liabil. A$M 40 60 60 60 60 Base Case 0.52 50.9Total Liabilities A$M 65 95 95 95 95 Sens -10% +10% Sens -10% +10%Net Assets A$M 188 216 293 315 294 US Gold price +/-10% 36% 0.33 0.70 45% 28.0 73.8

AUDUSD +/- 10% -37% 0.71 0.32 -41% 71.7 30.0

Cashflow Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Production +/-10% 25% 0.39 0.64 36% 32.6 69.2Operating Costs +/-10% 31% 0.36 0.67 29% 36.1 65.6

Operating Cashflow A$M 66 107 129 86 45Income Tax Paid A$M -3 -24 -14 Unpaid CapitalR&D grant A$M Expiry year No. (M) $M Avg ex. % ordInterest & Other A$M 1 2 30-Jun-18 2 0.4 0.30 0.3%Operating Activities A$M 67 109 126 62 31 30-Jun-19 2 0.3 0.15 0.4%

30-Jun-20 2 0.3 0.20 0.3%Property, Plant & Equip. A$M -39 -33 -70 -46 Total 5 1.0 0.21 0.9%Exploration A$M -15 -16Asset sales/acqn A$M -38 Reserves & Resources Mt g/t Au Koz Mkt cap/ozInvestments A$M TOTAL RESOURCE 52.1 2.3 3,833 16Investment Activities A$M -54 -87 -70 -46 Mt Magnet/Vivien June 2017 36.4 2.2 2,571

Edna May Dec. 2016 15.7 2.5 1,262 Borrowings A$MEquity A$M 23 0 0 0 INCLUDES TOTAL RESERVE 14.8 1.8 870 260Financing Activities A$M 23 0 0 0 Mt Magnet open pit, stockpile. June 17 6.0 1.6 306

Mt Magnet, Vivien underground. June 17 0.6 7.1 138 Net Cash Change A$M 36 22 56 16 31 Edna May open pit, stockpile. Dec 16 6.9 1.0 223

Edna May underground. Dec 16 1.3 4.7 202

Shares Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21Ordinary Shares - End M 527 528 530 532 532 Hartleys model June '17 Mt g/t Au Koz Mkt cap/ozDiluted Shares - Weighted M 538 538 538 538 538 TOTAL INVENTORY 28.9 1.5 1353 46

Mt Magnet open pit 8.9 1.4 406

Ratio Analysis Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21 Mt Magnet & Vivien underground 1.0 7.8 248

Edna May open pit 19.1 1.1 699GCFPS A¢ 12.5 20.2 24.5 16.4 8.6 Edna May undergroundCFR X 3.4 2.1 1.8 2.6 5.0EPS A¢ 3.3 13.4 9.7 5.9 -1.4 Share Price Valuation (NAV) Risked Est. A$MEst. A$/sharePER X 13.1 3.2 4.4 7.3 100% Mt Magnet after tax 7% DR 124 0.24DPS % na na na na na 100% Edna May after tax 7% DR 95 0.18Yield % na na na na na Exploration 44 0.08Interest Cover x na na - - - Corporate overheads -49 -0.09ROCE % 17% 43% 41% 24% -6% Net cash (debt) 62 0.12ROE % 13% 33% 25% 14% -3% Tax benefit 6 0.01Gearing % - - - - - Hedging -5 -0.01*All values fully diluted unless otherwise stated Option/equity dilution -5 -0.01Sources: IRESS, Company reports, Hartleys Research Total 271 0.52

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Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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MT MAGNET AND EDNA MAY Gold production from Mt Magnet and Vivien was 36.5kozs in the December 2017

quarter; the best return since the September quarter of 2016 (Figure 2). The start of

stoping at Water Tank Hill underground mine was a major factor. Ramelius’ first

quarter in charge of Edna May yielded 21.4kozs, which equalled the mine’s previous

quarter under Evolution control, and confirmed the expected trend of head grades

above 1 g/t.

The Company’s cash and gold balance at the end of December 2017 was $62M,

implying operating cash flows of $20-25M per quarter in the December 2017 half.

About $35M in development capital+exploration spending and the $40M payment for

Edna May, meant cash went down in the half, but the current June 2018 half should

tell a different story. With all mines in production phase, development capital spending

is done for the time being (Figure 4), with the possible exception of Shannon’s

development should Ramelius decide to bring it on early or cut back the Shannon pit

to enable access. The Company’s Edna May mine plan has production rising to

26kozs in the June 2018 quarter (Figure 3). Also, Ramelius will deliver into higher

priced gold hedges in this half, adding about $6M to revenue (Figure 5). Hartleys’

projections show cash and bullion exceeding $100M (20cps) by June 2018.

A stellar FY2018 for Ramelius’ should also be borne out by net profit results for the

period. On current projections Hartleys forecasts FY2018 EBIT of $68M.

FY2019 could be just as productive for Ramelius (Figure 1). Vivien, Water Tank Hill

and the Mt Magnet pits will all be in full swing, while Edna May continues in the low

strip ratio phase of the Stage 2 pit design, stockpiling excess ore. A low unit cost mine

will probably be developed at Shannon. The big decision for Ramelius is whether to

cut back the Edna May Stage 3 pit – a potential $100M investment that will need to

start early in FY2019. A go-ahead would forestall net cash flows, but also add up to

500kozs and 7 years to reserves and mine life respectively. Ramelius’ first drill results

from the Edna May Stage 3 extensions are expected to be announced by the end of

January 2018.

Ramelius produced

58kozs in the

December 2017

quarter .

Page 4: Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page 2 of 9 SUMMARY MODEL Ramelius Resources Buy RMS Market Information Directors Company

Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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Fig. 1: Hartleys’ forecast Ramelius production.

Source: Hartleys Research

Production Summary Unit Jun 17 Jun 18 Jun 19 Jun 20 Jun 21

Mt Magnet

Underground ore mined Mt 0.20 0.31 0.33 0.18 0.04

UG ore grade g/tAu 7.40 7.84 6.98 7.09 7.09

Open pit ore mined Mt 1.27 1.37 1.52 1.52 1.92

Open pit ore grade g/tAu 1.55 1.47 1.40 1.38 1.38

Mill Throughput Mt 1.89 1.82 1.85 1.70 1.96

Head grade g/t 2.20 2.56 2.39 1.97 1.49

Combined Recovery & Payability % 0.93 0.92 0.92 0.92 0.92

Gold (koz) 124 139 131 99 87

AISC (A$/oz) 1205 1091 1160 1091 1323

Edna May

Underground ore mined Mt

UG ore grade g/tAu

Open pit ore mined Mt 3.30 2.20 2.40 2.40

Open pit ore grade g/tAu 1.04 1.16 1.16 1.16

Mill Throughput Mt 1.95 2.50 2.40 2.40

Head grade g/t 1.15 1.08 1.16 1.16

Combined Recovery & Payability % 0.94 0.94 0.94 0.94

Gold (koz) 68 81 84 84

AISC (A$/oz) 1142 947 1153 1161

Total

Underground ore mined Mt 0.20 0.31 0.33 0.18 0.04

UG ore grade g/tAu 7.40 7.84 6.98 7.09 7.09

Open pit ore mined Mt 1.27 4.67 3.72 3.92 4.32

Open pit ore grade g/tAu 1.55 1.16 1.26 1.25 1.26

Mill Throughput Mt 1.89 3.77 4.35 4.10 4.36

Head grade g/t 2.20 1.83 1.64 1.50 1.31

Gold (koz) 124 206 212 183 171

AISC (A$/oz) 1205 1107 1079 1119 1243

Page 5: Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page 2 of 9 SUMMARY MODEL Ramelius Resources Buy RMS Market Information Directors Company

Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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Fig. 2: Mt Magnet quarterly milled tonnes and head grade. Actual

head grade for December 2017 quarter overlain.

Source: Ramelius, Hartleys Research

Fig. 3: Ramelius quarterly production and cost guidance (October

2017). Actual December 2017 production overlain.

Source: Ramelius, Hartleys Research

Page 6: Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page 2 of 9 SUMMARY MODEL Ramelius Resources Buy RMS Market Information Directors Company

Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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Fig. 4: Ramelius quarterly capital expenditure guidance (October

2017).

Source: Ramelius, Hartleys Research

Fig. 5: Ramelius hedging scheduled deliveries (October 2017).

Source: Ramelius, Hartleys Research

PEER COMPARISON Ramelius share price (43cps) reflects A$43/resource oz, one of the lowest among

developed Australia gold miners (Figure 6). Edna May and Mt Magnet reserves also

carry less market value than their peers. Apportioned market values are 0.46 and 0.40

times reserve ounces x estimated margin above AISC, for Mt Magnet and Edna May

respectively. The sector average is 0.90x (Figure 7).

Page 7: Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) · Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018 Page 2 of 9 SUMMARY MODEL Ramelius Resources Buy RMS Market Information Directors Company

Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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Fig. 6: Australian gold sector EV/resource ozs. January 2018.

Source: IRESS, Hartleys Research

Fig. 7: Australian gold projects market value/(reserves*margin).

January 2018.

Source: IRESS, Hartleys Research

VALUATION The accompanying Ramelius model takes into account publicly available information

including Ramelius’ projected group production profile and production guidance given

periodically. Costs are estimated according to information supplied by Ramelius and

reconciliation against past accounts.

At Vivien, Hartleys’ modelled inventory is 40,000 ounces higher than Ramelius’ June

2017 reserve of 103,000 ounces, on the presumption that progressive mine

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e

:

I

R

E

S

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Hartleys Limited Ramelius Resources Ltd (RMS) 24 January 2018

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development and drilling will add incremental reserves as access allows. Additional

exploration, development and mining costs are taken into account.

The pit inventory at Mt Magnet is modelled here at 7.6Mt at 1.4 g/t (340kozs) compared

to 5.4Mt at 1.7g/t (290kozs) in reserve at the end of June 2017, accounting for

additional low grade ore mined in planned pits, in line with recent practice. Waste:ore

is modelled at a constant 8:1 over the forward mine plan. The modelled Mt Magnet

underground inventory of 60kozs is 26kozs more than Water Tank Hill’s June 2017

reserves of 167kt at 6.5 g/t (34kozs) at Water Tank Hill, again accounting for

progressive reserve definition. The underground mining potential at Shannon is

included as exploration potential only.

Edna May is modelled assuming completion of the Stage 2 pit as per Evolution’s

December 2016 reserves schedule, and an additional 470kozs extracted from a stage

3 pit, assuming $A95M cutback costs and 2.3:1 waste:ore after the cutback. Royalty

payments of A$100/oz on all production between 200kozs and 700kozs are included

in costs.

PRICE TARGET The price target is based on a discounted cash flow valuation of the Mt Magnet and

Vivien operations, an informal estimate of exploration assets value and nominal

assessment of Ramelius’ other assets and liabilities. Hedging arrangements are

valued separately from the mining assets. A real, after tax discount rate of 7% is used

in net present value estimations. Hartleys base case commodity and currency

forecasts, set out in the summary table, are used to estimate the base case NAV. For

Ramelius the 12 month share price target is based on the base case NAV.

RISKS

Fig. 8: Key assumptions and risks for valuation Assumption Risk of not realising

assumption Risk to valuation if

assumption is incorrect

Comment

Gold price, currency High Industry ave. - high Ramelius’ forward looking AISC production cost of about A$1100/oz is close to the

Australian industry average, and hedging (30% of 3 yrs) is modest.

Exploration, re-investment Medium High Ramelius may invest most of its cash and

future free cash flows in exploration and/or other mineral asset acquisitions. Valuation

assumes that future exploration and investments achieve acceptable returns.

Edna May Stage 3 pit returns are positive

Medium Low Edna May Stage 3 is a substantial potential investment for RMS. Our model assumes marginal returns pending further Company

reserve and cost estimates.

Exploration asset value Medium Medium Subjective value is attributed to exploration assets at Mt Magnet and Edna May.

Costs Medium High Publicly available information has been used

in forecasting operating and capital costs. Some cost assumptions are based on

incomplete information or informal estimates.

Conclusion Ramelius faces industry average risks with respect to gold price and currency. Major recommendation risks relate to future re-investment and exploration returns.

Source: Hartleys Research

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HARTLEYS CORPORATE DIRECTORY Research Trent Barnett Head of Research +61 8 9268 3052

Mike Millikan Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 2805

John Macdonald Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3020

Paul Howard Resources Analyst +61 8 9268 3045

Aiden Bradley Research Analyst +61 8 9268 2876

Oliver Stevens Research Analyst +61 8 9268 2879

Michael Scantlebury Junior Analyst +61 8 9268 2837

Janine Bell Research Assistant +61 8 9268 2831

Corporate Finance Dale Bryan Director & Head of

Corp Fin.

+61 8 9268 2829

Richard Simpson Director +61 8 9268 2824

Ben Crossing Director +61 8 9268 3047

Ben Wale Associate Director +61 8 9268 3055

Stephen Kite Associate Director +61 8 9268 3050

Scott Weir Associate Director +61 8 9268 2821

Scott Stephens Associate Director +61 8 9268 2819

Rhys Simpson Manager +61 8 9268 2851

Registered Office

Level 6, 141 St Georges TcePostal Address:

PerthWA 6000 GPO Box 2777

Australia Perth WA 6001

PH:+61 8 9268 2888 FX: +61 8 9268 2800

www.hartleys.com.au [email protected]

Note: personal email addresses of company employees are

structured in the following

manner:[email protected]

Hartleys Recommendation Categories

Buy Share price appreciation anticipated.

Accumulate Share price appreciation anticipated but the risk/reward is

not as attractive as a “Buy”. Alternatively, for the share

price to rise it may be contingent on the outcome of an

uncertain or distant event. Analyst will often indicate a

price level at which it may become a “Buy”.

Neutral Take no action. Upside & downside risk/reward is evenly

balanced.

Reduce /

Take profits

It is anticipated to be unlikely that there will be gains over

the investment time horizon but there is a possibility of

some price weakness over that period.

Sell Significant price depreciation anticipated.

No Rating No recommendation.

Speculative

Buy

Share price could be volatile. While it is anticipated that,

on a risk/reward basis, an investment is attractive, there

is at least one identifiable risk that has a meaningful

possibility of occurring, which, if it did occur, could lead to

significant share price reduction. Consequently, the

investment is considered high risk.

Institutional Sales Carrick Ryan +61 8 9268 2864

Justin Stewart +61 8 9268 3062

Simon van den Berg +61 8 9268 2867

Chris Chong +61 8 9268 2817

Digby Gilmour +61 8 9268 2814

Veronika Tkacova +61 8 9268 3053

Wealth Management Nicola Bond +61 8 9268 2840

Bradley Booth +61 8 9268 2873

Adrian Brant +61 8 9268 3065

Nathan Bray +61 8 9268 2874

Sven Burrell +61 8 9268 2847

Simon Casey +61 8 9268 2875

Tony Chien +61 8 9268 2850

Tim Cottee +61 8 9268 3064

David Cross +61 8 9268 2860

Nicholas Draper +61 8 9268 2883

John Featherby +61 8 9268 2811

Ben Fleay +61 8 9268 2844

James Gatti +61 8 9268 3025

John Goodlad +61 8 9268 2890

Andrew Gribble +61 8 9268 2842

David Hainsworth +61 8 9268 3040

Murray Jacob +61 8 9268 2892

Gavin Lehmann +61 8 9268 2895

Shane Lehmann +61 8 9268 2897

Steven Loxley +61 8 9268 2857

Andrew Macnaughtan +61 8 9268 2898

Scott Metcalf +61 8 9268 2807

David Michael +61 8 9268 2835

Jamie Moullin +61 8 9268 2856

Chris Munro +61 8 9268 2858

Michael Munro +61 8 9268 2820

Ian Parker +61 8 9268 2810

Matthew Parker +61 8 9268 2826

Charlie Ransom

(CEO)

+61 8 9268 2868

Mark Sandford +61 8 9268 3066

David Smyth +61 8 9268 2839

Greg Soudure +61 8 9268 2834

Sonya Soudure +61 8 9268 2865

Dirk Vanderstruyf +61 8 9268 2855

Samuel Williams +61 8 9268 3041

Jayme Walsh +61 8 9268 2828

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