Rainfall Variability, Food Security and Human Mobility Project

Ghana case study report

National LevelStakeholder Briefing Workshop4th October 2012, Coconut Grove Hotel, Accra

Edward Salifu Mahama &Christina Rademacher-Schulz

Overview of presentation

1) Rainfalls project overview

2) Ghana case study information

3) Characteristics of survey respondents

4) Perceptions of rainfall variability & meteorological data

5) Agricultural & livestock production

6) Problems of the agricultural sector

7) Impact diagram

8) Food insecurity & coping

9) Migration

10) Conclusions

11) Policy recommendations

12) District level stakeholder workshop outcomes

• Partners: CARE International, Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) at Columbia University, Universities of Bonn & Amsterdam

• Sponsors:

• Case studies: Guatemala, Peru, Ghana, Tanzania, India, Bangladesh, Vietnam and Thailand

• Ghana research team members: Dr. Mahama (CCEIR, UDS Tamale), Dr. Christina Rademacher-Schulz (UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany), Junior research team members (UDS Wa), CARE Country office members Tamale/Wa

1. Where the Rain Falls project

1. Research Objectives & Questions

Conceptualize the relationship between changing weather patterns, food security, social inequalities and different forms of human mobility

focus of field work

Objective: Migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall variability & food insecurity

Question: Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk management strategy in response to rainfall variability and food insecurity?

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Rainfall Variability

MigrationFood Security

Livelihood

Better understand complexinterrelations and interplaysthrough fieldwork…

1. Objectives & Questions

Assess the potential for changing weather patterns to become a major driver of human migration and displacement in coming decades (from the present to 2030 or 2040).

Develop an agent based model on migration decisions

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3

Research findings will help inform climate change adaptation programmes

run by CARE International in four countries

Enable a range of stakeholders, including southern civil society organizations, to influence policies, plans and practical interventions in processes such as UNFCCC Climate Talks, the Economic and Financial Committee of the United Nations General Assembly, and regional discussions about human mobility.

2. Ghana Case Study

Nadowli District • Population: 95,000 (2009)• Economy:

85% agriculture

14% commerce/service

1% industry• Guinea Savannah zone• 1 rainy season (April-October), 1036mm/a (1960-2011)• 1 agricultural season

Upper West Region poorest region in Ghana

Rainfalls research: 4 communities in Takpo area October/November 2011

Methodology: Household Survey (158 HH, 25%), Participatory Rural Approaches (PRA) & Expert Interviews

2. Nadowli District Map

with research communities(District boundaries in 2011)

Source: Department of Environment and Resource Studies, University for Development Studies, Wa, Ghana, 2012.

2. Livelihood in Takpo area

Main characteristics• Small-holder farms, no large plantation holdings in the district• Food crops: millet, sorghum (guinea corn), maize, cowpea & yam• Cash crops: groundnuts, soybeans, cassava, tiger nuts & chili pepper• 80% of crop production for own consumption, 20% optional for sale

Economic activties of households• agriculture• livestock rearing (goats & sheep, poultry, cattle)• Pito brewing• Shea-, Dawadawa- and Baobab processing • Petty trading (processed fruits, beans cakes etc.) • Charcoal processing & sale• Migration• Fishing

Low level of diversification (high dependence on climate/agriculture)

3. Background characteristics of survey respondents

Name of community Population of males Population of females

Total population

Mantari 79 73 152

Nanville 510 643 1153

Takpo 1159 1229 2388

Zupiri 78 98 176

Population of selected research communitiesSource: Population and Housing Census 2000.

Name of community Total number of HHs Number of HHs selected

Mantari 24 9

Nanville 190 52

Takpo 332 88

Zupiri 34 9

Total 580 158

Selected households (HH) and household sizesSource: Household survey, 2011.

4. Perceptions of rainfall variabilityand their effects

• The climate has become less predictable• The rainy season starts later (shift from April to May)• The rainy season is shorter and contains more and longer periods of dry spells• Extreme weather events increased (storms, floods, droughts)

“Rainfall now is unpredictable, it stops when it is needed and it rains when it is not needed.” (Man from Zupiri)

Effect on economic situation of household %

Lower crop yields 92.4

Increasing food price 37.3

Less livestock production 36.7

Others 1.9

Substitute Market products 1.3

Effects of changing rainfall on economic situation of the household, multiple answersSource: Household survey, 2011

Climate research of GLOWA Volta Project Dry spell probability highest in North-West Ghana (1961-99) Rainy season delayed by 16 days (1961-2001) Increase in extreme weather patterns (Scenario A1B, 2011-30)

Source: Laux 2009

4. Annual rainfall amounts, Wa Station, 1953-2011

Annual sums and five-year running mean from 1953-2011.Data source: Synoptic Weather Station Wa, Upper West Region.

4. Comparison of local perceptions and bio-physical observations

Sources: Survey, PRA sessions, expert interviews, climate data; Laux, 2009, Jung and Kunstmann, 2007, Van de Giessen et al., 2010.

5. Agricultural production

Production of major crops in Nadowli District, 1999-2011 (in kg). Source: MoFA 2012

Farmers‘ perception: Amount of harvest unpredictable reduced amount of yields during the

past years compared to the past

Crop data: High varibility in crop production, decrease in cash crop groundnuts since 2008/09

5. Price development of crops at Wa market

Price development for millet, Wa market, 2005-2009

Source: MoFa price data.

Price development for groundnuts, Wa market, 2005-2009

Source: MoFa price data.

5. Livestock production in Nadowli District and the research communities

Livestock Cattle Sheep Goat Pigs Poultry

2008 4,157 8,217 8,935 9,871 18,015

2009 5,357 9,457 9,943 9,967 22,234

2010 5,987 9,909 10,009 10,087 43,987

Livestock census figures in Nadowli District, 2008-2010Source: District Agricultural Development Unit, Nadowli 2010 (http://mofa.gov.gh/site/?page_id=1677).

Livestock production in four research communities in Nadowli District, 2011Source: Household survey, October 2011.

6. Problems of the Agricultural sector

Problems stated by the Nadowli District Development Plan:

• Poor storage facilities

• Erratic/unreliable rainfall

• Inadequate credit facilities

• Poor farming technology

• Inadequate access to extension service

• Inadequate irrigation facilities

• Infertile soils

• Poor road network from producing areas to marketing centres

Farmers apply traditional farming techniques and traditional storage facilities

Source: Nadowli District Development Plan, 2010a:56

7. Impact diagram (PRA session)

Impact diagram in Nanville (scheme) Source: PRA session, 2011. Design by Rademacher-Schulz and Rossow.

8. Food insecurity & coping

Less Intense Activity Intense Activity

Seasonal calendar, Mantari & Takpo (general structure)

Activities / characteristics Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Farming (planting & harvesting)

Fire wood fetching

Harvesting of economic trees

Food shortage

Food abundance

Migration

Lean season

Lean season “nadibo” “What shall we eat?”

“By June each year, our food stock runs out and we have no money to buy any foodstuff. We rely on the sale of livestock and sheabutter to get a little money to buy food. We the adults are also compelled to reduce the amount of food we take daily.” (45-year-old household head from Nanville)

Food insecurity and lack of money during the yearSource: Household survey, 2011.

8. Food insecurity

71-year-old man from Nanville: “My children need to supplement household food needs by migrating to find money.”

8. Coping strategies

STRATEGY  Selling of Assets (livestock, agricultural products) 28.7%

Reduced food consumption 21.3%

Diversify activities to increase income 14.3%

Migration of HH members (seasonal, temporal) 14.3%Modify crop production (higher yielding and early maturing crops, fertilizer) 10.9%

Rely on external help (borrow from family, friends, NGOs) 8.1%

Reduce Expenditure (goods, health) 1.9%

Coping strategies (n=258) and specific actions in order of importanceSource: Household survey 2011

Diversifying income women play a crucial role in supplementing the family’s budget with their small-scale processing and selling activities

“This is the time the men respect us because they depend on us a lot. They are very sober and calm. They don’t shout at us and listen to what we say, but when they harvest the food they are there again, yelling at us and sometimes threatening to beat us” (Woman in Takpo).

9. Migration in Takpo area

Source: HH survey, October 2011

Migrant destinations (%) within Ghana and abroadSource: Household survey, 2011

Main activities (first migration): 52% Farming14% Mining 9% Education

Occasional remittances and food support

HHs usage of remittances:food consumptionconsumer goods purchasehealth care, education &

investment

0

10

20

30

40

Mig

rant

s (%

)

Indicators HH with migration experience 77%Number of migrants per HH 1.6Economic migrants 83%Educational migrants 9%Sex of migrants Male 69% Female 31%

Average age of migrants (first trip) 23Education level of migrants (years of schooling)

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Marital status of migrants Single 40% Married 53% Other 7%Type of migration (first trip) Seasonal (< 6 months) 39%

Temporal (0.5 - 2 years) 25% Permanent (> 2years) 36%Migration status Current 68% Returned 32%

9. Reasons for migration

FloodsBetter job opportunities in the city

Storms Less animal production for sale

Heavy rainfall eventsLess financial resources to buy food/staples

Not satisfied with my livelihoodIncreasing food prices in the market

Less crop production for saleDecline in animal production for HH consumption

Poor soil quality Increase in drought frequency

Unreliable harvestLonger drought periods

UnemploymentShifted seasonal rainfalls

Decline in crop production for HH consumption

0 50 100 150Source: Household survey, 2011; scoring (multiple answers)

Reasons: social/personal economic/food security natural/environmental

Migration mainly for economic reasons caused by environmental factors

9. Changing migration patterns?

• Seasonal migration normally takes place during the dry, lean season• Seasonal migration is seen as the most beneficial migration type as it

contributes to food security

Situation of households in 2011 - survey analysis reveals:• strong correlation between food insecurity and migration at uncommon

times most migrants left during the rainy season (between April and October)

Possible reasons: • acute food insecurity at the end of the dry season/beginning of the rainy

season• farmers facing problems during the planting season and anticipate a low

harvest

What do rainfall and crop production data tell us?• 2011 shows a negative rainfall anomaly• 2011 shows a significant drop in sorghum and groundnut production More research is needed

• Overall conclusion: Northern Ghana is extremely vulnerable to climate change & changes in rainfall variability

• Locals are highly dependent on rain fed subsistence agriculture and livestock rearing

• Local livelihoods show a low degree of economic diversification• Most households are below the national poverty line• Most households face regular food shortages during the lean season prior to the

next havest

People developed various coping and adaptation strategies

• Coping strategies of HHs sell of livestock reduce food consumption increasing small-scale “commercial” production

Seasonal migration

10. Conclusions 1

10. Conclusions 2

Migration is a crucial strategy to diversify income and spread risks The dominant pattern: seasonal rural-rural migration Significant increase of female migration despite its negative perception

The most important driving forces for migration are environmental/climate related resulting in food insecurity and reduced economic means of households

Under what circumstances do households use migration as a risk management strategy in relation to increasing rainfall variability and food insecurity?

• Perception of migration normal income strategy (75%) and/or strategy only in times of crisis (36%)

• Poor households face higher food insecurity than better-off households• Poor households have a higher propensity to use migration during the rainy

season 2011 as a risk management strategy

Climate Variability+ other stressors

11. Policy recommendations –

research participants expectations

• Modernise farming since the use of old simple farm implements and traditional methodsof farming does not support large-scale production. This implies:

• Improved seeds (high yielding varieties) and early maturing crops• Tractor services or animal traction in order to cultivate bigger fields• Fertiliser provision

• Provision of dams for dry season gardening to ensure local farming throughout the year

• Improve animal husbandry (e.g., create shelter; vaccination campaigns)

• Stopping bush fires as they destroy vegetation cover causing soil erosion, destroy farm crops, kill economic trees, endangering people and houses

• Curtailing tree felling for firewood and charcoal production

• Creating local employment opportunities in agriculture by establishing bigger modern farms

• Provision of micro-credit services to farmers to better access farm inputs

11. Policy recommendations(local/district/regional level)

1. Development of community based adaptation strategies (CBAs) that would respond to the specific needs and challenges of local people.

2. Development and extension of climate resilient crop varieties such as early maturing, drought and flood resilient crops.

3. Adoption of conservation agricultural techniques (teaching farmers to do composting, contour bonding, zero tilage, etc.).

4. Include women in planning, development and implementation of adaptation strategies.

5. Conscious efforts must be made to increase women’s access to fertile land for crop production since they are now seen to play a key role in household food security.

6. Conscious efforts at local/district level to conserve natural resources as well as a sustainable usage of natural ressoruces for local needs.

7. The village savings and loans scheme promoted by CARE and other NGOs has proven to be one effective way of local mobilization of resources for livelihood activities.

12. District level stakeholder workshop outcomes

• Community members agreed that the presentation reflected the situation in their

communities• Lack of appropriate/intermediate technology is a strong contributory factor to food

insecurity old technology for cultivation and harvesting• Youth feel that this technology is so laborious and therefore prefer to migrate• Technology must be adoptable to local environment Donkeys (transportation, ploughing)

found better than tractors• The community members acknowledged migration as key activity in the area. • One key activity of migrants is mining upcoming mining sites in Nadowli District • Irrigation farming requires new skills need for education and training on the use of

irrigation dams• Other challenges: limited access to markets and land litigation • District Assembly representatives agreed on findings regarding food insecurity   

General conclusion: • Rainfalls project work and results as well as stakeholder briefing appreciated• Need for modifications; changes should be suitable to the community needs and capabilities

Thank you for your attention!

UNITED NATIONS UNIVERSITY

Institute for Environmentand Human Security (UNU-EHS)

Hermann-Ehlers-Str. 1053113 Bonn, Germany

Tel.: + 49-228-815-0200Fax: + 49-228-815-0299

e-mail: info@ehs.unu.eduwww.ehs.unu.edu

Contacts: Christina Rademacher-Schulze-mail: rademacher@ehs.unu.edu

Edward Salifu Mahama; CCEIR Tamalee-mail: edsalifu@yahoo.co.uk