Raes April 2015 aerospace magazine 1504

ILLUSIONS OF SAFETY

CLOUD SOURCING

HAS THE TIME COME FOR CARGO UAVS?

April 2015

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Contents

Comment

Airlines subsidies dogfi ght

Regulars

Afterburner

Air freight reloadedWhat are the commercial prospects for a large cargo-carrying UAV?

H is for HelicopterReport on the 2015 Heli-Expo show in Orlando, Florida.

4 RadomeThe latest aviation and aeronautical intelligence, analysis and comment.

10 Antenna Howard Wheeldon asks where next for UK defence?

12 TransmissionYour letters, emails, tweets and feedback.

58 The Last WordKeith Hayward on SpaceXs shake-up of the satellite market.

42 Message from our President

43 Message from our Chief Executive

44 Book Reviews

47 Library Additions

48 149th AGM minutes

50 Obituaries

51 Weybridge Branch Lecture

52 Diary

55 Corporate Partners

56 RAeS Elections/Templer

Lecture

41

Features

Illusions of safetyDo airline safety management systems actually enhance safety?

Many eyes ... make light work?How pooling Reaper UAVs could boost Europes ISR capability.

1430

34

OnlineAdditional features and content are available to view online on www.media.aerosociety.com/

aerospace-insightIncluding: Aces high A350 XWB pilot training,

In the March issue of AEROSPACE,

So you want to be a drone entrepreneur,

SDSR 2015 Issues, options and implications.

Volume 42 Number 4 April 2015

Correspondence on all aerospace matters is welcome at: The Editor, AEROSPACE, No.4 Hamilton Place, London W1J 7BQ, UK [email protected]

3

Cloud sourcingCan turning airliners into mobile weather sensors improve turbulence reporting?

Aiming high with CPDMake the most of the RAeS to boost your professional knowledge and standing.

28

Front cover: Airbus Helicopter H160 helicopter. Airbus Helicopter/ Productions Autrement Dit

24

In February, the arguments over state aid shifted to airlines, when Delta Air Lines, along with American Airlines and United Airlines, opened a new front by accusing fast-growing rival Gulf carriers, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, of allegedly receiving $40bn of state subsidies and aid from their governments in a carefully prepared white paper. The US carriers aim is to persuade Washington law-makers to limit what they perceive as unfair competition and to rethink Open Skies agreements. For their part, the Gulf carriers have denied they receive state aid, with Qatar chief Akbar Al Baker saying: We do not receive any subsidy. Emirates said in a statement that it is confi dent that these allegations are totally without grounds. There is no doubt, however, that these carriers do have some innate advantages when competing, not just against US airlines but also other established legacy carriers. Young and modern fl eets, little legacy baggage in the form of pensions and unions and supportive aviation-minded governments behind them with a long-term strategy has certainly helped their growth. However, it has been their cabin product and service that has won passengers over, not any direct line to rulers. (In fact, some might go further and argue that it has been the Gulf airlines that have been one driver in forcing legacy US and European airlines to up their game in cabin refreshes, IFE and fl eet modernisation). There also is, supporters of Gulf airlines note, the question of US state aid to airlines in post 9/11 bailouts, the Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection that has allowed airlines to survive and restructure, plus the anti-trust exemptions that have allowed the big US carriers to merge often against the wishes of consumer groups. Thus, in both the US and the Gulf, aviation is seen as a strategically important industry. The battle lines have now been drawn. And for the Oneworld Alliance, which now sees two members (American Airlines and Qatar Airways) dramatically at each others throats, future alliance meetings could be highly charged. Tim Robinson

[email protected]

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Editor-in-ChiefTim Robinson +44 (0)20 7670 4353 [email protected]

Deputy Editor Bill Read +44 (0)20 7670 4351 [email protected]

Publications Manager Chris Male +44 (0)20 7670 4352 [email protected]

Production Editor Wayne J Davis +44 (0)20 7670 4354 [email protected]

Book Review EditorBrian Riddle

Editorial Offi ceRoyal Aeronautical SocietyNo.4 Hamilton PlaceLondon W1J 7BQ, UK+44 (0)20 7670 4300 [email protected]

AEROSPACE is published by the Royal Aeronautical Society (RAeS).

Chief Executive Simon C Luxmoore

Advertising Emma Bossom+44 (0)20 7670 [email protected]

Unless specifi cally attributed, no material in AEROSPACE shall be taken to represent the opinion of the RAeS.

Reproduction of material used in this publication is not permitted without the written consent of the Editor-in-Chief.

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ISSN 2052-451X

36

33 Ramp-up key targets for AirbusTIM ROBINSON reports from the Airbus Group Annual Results day.

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20 Britain decidesThe defence, aerospace and aviation implications of the May UK general election.

NEWS IN BRIEF

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Radome

AEROSPACE / APRIL 2015

AIR TRANSPORT

Airliner 2030 fl ight of fancy

INTELLIGENCE / ANALYSIS / COMMENT

From Spanish designer Oscar Vials comes this vision of an 800-seat hybrid hydrogen/electric zero-emission airliner of the future, the Progress Eagle. Vials' futuristic concept for a three-deck widebody airliner of the 2030s seeks to exploit 'quantum advances in materials that will be in place by then, such as smart skins, graphene carbon nanotubes and ceramics to create an aircraft that is ultra greener and 75% quieter than current airliners. The 314ft wingspan Progress Eagle has fi ve superconducting engines, with four that are just used for take-off and landing, the fi fth being a large diameter ducted-fan/windturbine for cruise. Most radical of all, Vials claims that the Progress Eagle will able to generate excess energy during fl ight, using its high effi ciency solar panels, rear wind turbine and by 'harvesting' radio and electromagnetic waves and kinetic energy using piezoelectric nanogenerators during fl ight.

Smart skinVials envisages the aircraft incorporat-ing smart skin and shape memory meta-materials able to repair itself after damage.

Rear engine/turbineA large ducted-fan type engine at the rear also functions as a wind turbine to capture excess electrical energy during cruise and descent.

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Solar panelsBy 2030 the aircraft could ultilise hyper-effi cient quantum solar dot cells which can capture the other 50% of solar energy in the infrared spectrum. These would make up giant solar arrays on the wings and top of fuselage. Electrical power will be stored in batteries in the cargo bay and the endoskeleton structure of the wing.

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A room with a view As well as the traditional three classes, the Progress Eagle intro-duces a fourth class pilots class for premium passengers located in the nose, which gives unob-structed views out of the front through large windows.

BiomimicryThe Progress Eagle features low-drag triple winglets, two on top and a ventral winglet, similar to birds' tip feathers. The structure also takes its cues from nature, with a ultra-lightweight hollow endoskeleton.

Take-off enginesFour auxiliary engines for take-off and climb also feature vectoring nozzles to reduce take-off distance. Hydrogen would provide the fuel for take-off and climb phases of fl ight.

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NEWS IN BRIEF

Rockwell Collins has unveiled a new global fl ight tracking service. ARINC MultiLink fuses aircraft position data from six sources: ADS-C, high-frequency data link (HFDL), ADS-B, ACARS, US Aircraft Situation Display to Industry (ASDI) and Eurocontrol as well as future datalinks.

A strike by Norwegian Air pilots over a new employment contract

caused the airline to cancel all domestic fl ights in Norway, Sweden and Denmark on 4 March. Initially 70 pilots began the strike but this has increased to around 650 after negotiations with management broke down.

On 12 March, the fi rst internationally-assembled Lockheed Martin F-35A was rolled out of the Final Assembly and Check Out (FACO) in Cameri, Italy. The aircraft, Al-1, is the

fi rst F-35A for the Italian Air Force and the fi rst of eight fi ghters for Italy currently being assembled at Cameri.

The UK Space Agency has published a shortlist of sites that could be used as a base for a future UK commercial spaceport. The shortlisted sites are Campbeltown, Glasgow Prestwick and Stornoway in Scotland, Newquay in England and Llanbedr in Wales.

US air ambulance company Air Methods has placed an order for 200 Bell 407GXP helicopters, in a deal worth around $600m at list prices. The 407GXP was launched at Heli-Expo and is an upgrade from the GX, with an uprated engine, adding payload and range.

The Vulcan to the Sky Trust and Aviation Skills Partnership have announced the launch

plans to create the Vulcan Aviation Academy and Heritage Centre.The facility, planned at the home base of Vulcan XV558 at Robin Hood Airport, Doncaster, would see an aviation education and skills hub be created to inspire and train the next generation of pilots, engineers, air traffi c controllers and other disciplines.

In February, Indonesian low-cost carrier Lion Air

DEFENCE

AIR TRANSPORT

A Delta Air Lines MD-88 suffered a runway excursion on 5 March when it skidded off the runway at New Yorks LaGuardia airport at 11am in the morning.Only minor injuries among the 127 passengers were reported in the incident, which saw the aircraft come to rest up against a

raised seawall. Passengers disembarked and began immediately tweeting pictures and video. The incident, which happened as the aircraft was landing on runway 13 after arrival from Atlanta, saw the airport closed for several hours afterwards. The US NTSB is now investigating the crash.

GENERAL AVIATION

AEROSPACE

It has been revealed that aircraft designer, Burt Rutan, who retired from Scaled Composites in 2011, is now working on a new long-range, amphibian and snow-capable light aircraft. The innovative two-seater SkiGull will feature retractable fl oats with

wheels to enable it to land on water, land or snow. It

will also, according to the designer,

have enough range to fl y from California to Hawaii.

An upcoming documentary

Looking Up Way Up is now raising funds to fi lm Rutan as he develops the SkiGull project.

MD-88 skids off runway at LaGuardia

MoD

Solar Impulse 2 begins epic round the world fl ight

The UK MoD has issued a request for information (RFI) for bids to upgrade the British Army's AgustaWestland AH Mk1 Apache attack fl eet to the latest Boeing AH-64 E model standard fi elded by the US and exported to other nations. The AH-64E features composite rotor blades, new transmission and improved GE engines, as well as network-centric systems including a Link 16 datalink. A decision on the bidder is expected in 2016.

Burt Rutan working on new GA design

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UK issues RFI for Apache upgrade

Look

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Up

As AEROSPACE goes to press, the solar-powered Solar Impulse 2 has successfully fl own the fi rst two legs of its fi ve-month multi-stage round the world fl ight. The single-seat aircraft took off from Abu Dhabi on 9 March for the fi rst 220nm stage to Muscat, Oman. It then fl ew 16h covering 790nm to Ahmedabad, India. The route will see SI2 fl y over China, the Pacifi c, the US and New York and North Africa/Southern Europe before reaching its start point.

7i f APRIL 2015

experienced three days of delays and cancellations after three aircraft suffered foreign-object damage. Passengers stranded at Soekarno-Hatta Airport in Jakarta are reported to have staged protests and security forces were called in to maintain order.

Boeing has won a 450m fi ve-year contract to extend its support services for the RAFs CH-47 Chinook fl eet. The Chinook Through Life Contract Support

(TLCS) has delivered aircraft availability 10% over the requirement according to Boeing UK.

Russia launched a military reconnaissance satellite Kosmos 2503 Bars M on 27 February from the Plesetsk Cosmodrome aboard a Soyuz 1-1a rocket.

Hollywood actor and pilot Harrison Ford suffered minor injuries after crash-landing his vintage Ryan

ST3KR trainer on a golf course in California.He had experienced engine trouble soon after taking off from Santa Monica Airport.

The US FAA has announced its long-awaited rulemaking proposal for small commercial UAVs. The proposed rule covers UAVs under 55lb and would allow for commercial fl ying within line of sight during the day. Operators will have

to pass a test and obtain a certifi cate, with the UAV limited to speeds under 100mph and an altitude of 500ft.

Mexican carrier Interjet has fi rmed up another ten Sukhoi SuperJet SSJ100s in a deal worth $350m.

Egyptian Air Force F-16s have struck ISIS militant targets in Libya in revenge for 21 Coptic Christians who were beheaded by the terrorists in Libya. The

air raids took place on 16 February against extremist training camps and facilities in Libya.

NASAs Dawn probe has successfully entered the orbit of the dwarf planet Ceres the largest asteroid known. The Dawn spacecraft, which uses an ion propulsion engine, launched seven and a half years ago, previously visited the asteroid Vesta. It will now spend 14 months mapping the body.

AEROSPACE

SPACEFLIGHT

@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

US satellite mystery explosion

AIR TRANSPORT

Rolls-Royce is to fl y the largest ever 3D printed component on a Trent XWB test engine. The 15m diameter front bearing housing (marked blue in cutaway graphic right), made out of titanium using additive-layer

manufacturing (ALM), will be the biggest-ever 3D

printed component fl own on an aircraft to date. The part will be fl ight-tested on

a Trent XWB-97 later this year as

part of a demonstration of the industrial viability of the ALM process.

The three biggest US legacy airlines: American Airlines, Delta Air Lines and United Contintental, have published a

white paper Partnership for Open and Fair Skies alleging that Gulf-based airlines,

Emirates, Ethihad and Qatar Airways have received $42bn in quantifi able subsidies from their governments giving them an

unfair advantage. The Gulf carriers have swiftly refuted these allegations, after

the spat escalated when the Delta CEO appeared to link the airlines with 9/11 in a

TV interview with CNN.

US Air Force Space Command has revealed that a 20-year old military weather satellite exploded in orbit on 3 February after experiencing a sudden temperature spike followed by a complete loss of attitude control.

Launched in 1995, the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Flight 13 (DMSP-F13) has been

Gulf carriers accused of state subsidies

R-R to fl y largest ever 3D printed part

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operating in a back-up role since 2006. The explosion produced 43 pieces of space debris in sun-synchronous polar orbit, 500miles up.

Initial investigestion of the incident according to the USAF, is pointing to a catastrophic failure of the satellite's power system, leading to the explosion, rather than space debris or hostile action. S

elex

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Hammerhead UAV maiden fl ight revealed

Piaggio Aerospace has announced that it carried out the fi rst fl ight of the prototype of its P.1HH medium-altitude long-endurance HammerHead UAV. Based on the Avanti twin-pusher business turboprop with a longer wingspan and additional Selex control systems, the 001 prototype was fl own in December.

DEFENCE

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Bristow Helicopters has offi cially opened the fi rst of its civilian search and rescue bases which will take over from RAF/RN Sea Kings after 70 years of military SAR. The fi rst two sites at Humberside and Inverness will commence operations on 1 April. The 10-year civil SAR contract will see the company provide SAR using a mix of Sikorsky S-92s and AgustaWestland AW189s.

A quadriplegic woman has demonstrated the ability to fl y a F-35 simulator just using her brain in a DARPA experiment on human-machine interfaces. The woman was able to control a F-35 in the simulator directly using neural signals from electrodes implanted in her left motor brain cortex.

Turkish Airlines announced that the carrier had nearly tripled its profi ts in 2014

up from TRY683m to TRY182bn. Revenue for the sale period rose by 29% to TRY241bn. The airline is planning to issue $500m worth of bonds to help fi nance the purchase of new aircraft to expand its fl eet.

The US State Department has announced a change in its export regulations of its Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) which will allow the sale of armed UAVs to allied nations.

Until now, the US has sold UCAVs only to the UK and unarmed systems to other nations, such as France and Italy.

On 12 March NASA launched an Atlas V rocket from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida with a payload of four identical Magnetospheric Multiscale (MMS) satellites. The mission will study the interplay between the Earths and Sun's magnetic fi elds.

French authorities are still trying to identify the operators of a number of small UAVs seen fl ying over Paris for two nights running in February. At least fi ve small multicopter drones were spotted close to Paris landmarks during the night of 23 February with a further fi ve sightings on the outskirts of the city on 24 February. Flying UAVs at night is illegal and there are fears that the fl ights may be connected.

NEWS IN BRIEF

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AEROSPACE

SPACEFLIGHT

The US National Aeronautic Association has announced that Gulfstream's ultra-long range G650 business jet has won the prestigious 2014 Robert J Collier Trophy for the greatest achievement in aeronautics or astronautics

Double milestone for Pilatus

Gulfstream G650 wins Collier Trophy

LM reveals Jupiter CRS-2 concept

Swiss-based Pilatus has rolled out its 100th PC-21 turboprop trainer with a specially marked example going to Saudi Arabia, which has 55 on order. The aircraft is also the 1,000th turboprop trainer produced by Pilatus which also has manufactured the PC-7/MkII and PC-9.

DEFENCE

Lockheed Martin has unveiled a proposal for a multipurpose unmanned space tug able to support deliveries of cargo to the ISS, as well as take on deep-space missions beyond LEO. The Jupiter spacecraft sees Thales Alenia Space and MDA contribute to the vehicle. For Commercial Resupply Services (CRS-2) to the ISS, Jupiter would transfer cargo out of an Exoliner Centaur upper stage.

CS300 makes fi rst fl ight On 27 February, Bombardier conducted the fi rst fl ight of its CSeries CS300 single-aisle airliner from its Mirabel, Quebec, facility. The maiden fl ight was originally scheduled for 26 February but was delayed due to bad

weather. The CS300 is a stretched, 130-160 seat version of the CS100, which fi rst fl ew in September 2013. Bombardier says that the CSeries will appear at this years Paris Air Show in June.

GENERAL AVIATION

in America. The G650 won out against

other nominees, including: the

Embraer Legacy 500; the F-16 Automatic

Ground Collision

Avoidance system, NASA's Orion EFT-1; and the Aurora Flight Sciences Orion UAS.

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Honeywell predicts rotorcraft market trends out to 2019

INFOGRAPHIC: Civil turbine helicopter market

DEFENCE

President & CEO of Aerospace Industries America, Marion Blakey, has been named President and CEO of Rolls-Royce North America.

Dave Armstrong is the new MD of MBDA UK, replacing Steve Wadey who is to head up QinetiQ.

Christopher McGregor is the new Flight Safety Offi cer at ATR.

ON THE MOVE

GENERAL AVIATION

AEROSPACE

@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Eurofi ghter and its consortium partners have been awarded a 200m contract for the next P3E upgrade to the Typhoon which will see the fi ghter integrated with the air-to-ground dual mode Brimstone 2 missiles.

The upgrade will see RAF Typhoons able to carry New Zealand start-up

Martin Aircraft, which is developing a personal VTOL jetpack fl ying machine using ducted fans, has fl oated on the ASX Australian stock exchange. The company, which plans to sell the one-person VTOL machines at around $150,000-200,000,

Purchase plans by regionTurbine-powered, civilian helicopter purchase outlook

2015

This analysis is based on Honeywell customer expectation surveys, an assessment of consensus forecasts, a review of factory delivery rates and analysis of future new helicopter introductions.

5-Year Survey respondent eet replacement and expansion plan percentages

Middle East and Africa replacement and addition rates highest in the world.

18% 25%20%

32%28%

Middle East & Africa

North America

Latin America

Europe

Asia Pacic

Helicopter deliveries=250

17TH Annual

FORSALE

Dual-use or multi-purpose aircraft allocated to primary usage category.

Light Single-Engine and Twin-Engine models account for 67% of expected purchases.

Projected 10% to 22% improvement during 20152019 period. Utility and Law Enforcement trend up.

49% Light Single-Engine

18% Light Twin-Engine

31% Intermediate & Medium Twin-Engine

2% Heavy Multi-Engine

25% Corporate

8% Oil & Gas

18% Emergency Medical Services/SAR

18% Law Enforcement

1% News & Television

30% General Utility/Other/Incl. Tourism

4,300

20102014 20152019

Helicopter deliveries= 275

Planned usage of new helicoptersPurchase plans by sizeGlobal deliveries

4,7505,250

Global purchase plans rose 3 points- U.S. leads improvement

Jetpack start-up goes public

Hon

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Brimstone 2 contract signed for Typhoon

up to six of the fi re-and-forget missiles in late 2018. Meanwhile, MBDA chief Antoine Bouvier has said he expects a decision on the possible US procurement of Brimstone in the next few weeks calling a test case on the accessibility of the US defence market to European suppliers.

MH370 a year onOceanic deep water search teams looking for the missing Malaysian Airlines fl ight MH370 say that they have now covered 40% of the search area, equivalent to 24,000km2 of seabed. The remaining area to be searched is expected to be completed by May.

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was valued at more than $100m when it was listed.

As well as recreational users, the company is also targeting the jetpack at military, homeland security, SAR and parapublic missions. Able to stay aloft for 30mins and fl y at speeds of up to 74km/hr, the jetpack is expected to be available in mid-2016.

MB

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10 AEROSPACE / APRIL 2015

antenna:

With all pre-election announcements from the Coalition Government concluded and the administration now having entered a period of

purdah until immediately after the 7 May General Election, the fi rst process of the new government will be to get the full Comprehensive Spending Review underway.

These are trying times for all Government departments and not least for defence. Awaiting the election result the military, along with industry and defence commentators, are anxiously anticipating what happens next for UK defence. Answers may not be forthcoming for several months yet and, in terms of future policy, not before the results of the planned Strategic Defence and Security Review are published toward the end of this year or early in 2016.

What we know from history over the past 40 years is that, unless the nation is going through a period in which it feels particularly threatened, most political parties have a natural tendency to take a diffi dent attitude toward defence. Translated, that means that they see defence costs as being too high and needing to be further cut. While the subject of whether or not we should be spending more than 2% of GDP on defence as a minimum is likely to be aired during the election campaign, along with the complex issue of Trident replacement, for the rest it seems that the old adage that there are no votes in defence will prevail in the minds of our politicians. What a pity this is, but, on that basis and in terms of looking forward, we may have little choice but to anticipate that there is unlikely to be any respite for defence no matter which party or coalition forms the next government.

Despite reassuring political rhetoric that the threat posed by Russia in its manipulation of the sovereign state of Ukraine was foremost in the mind of the Coalition Government, I doubt that this will become election issue for us. And, while there are differences in party views towards defence, the bottom line is that no party appears to be standing out saying that more needs to be spent on the military.

The history of government attitude toward defence in the UK since 1955 is fascinating. The truth is that UK politicians long ago decided that there are few, if any, votes in defence and from the

Global Outlook and Analysis with HOWARD WHEELDON

Where next for UK defence?

post war peak of 1956/7 when we spent 72% of GDP on defence and when the real impact of cuts from the earlier 1955 Duncan Sandys 1955 Defence Review began to kick-in, it seems that from then on it has been a constant process of managing decline in defence expenditure. The facts are borne out by evidence that shows that in the lifetime of many of you reading this piece today, defence has moved from being the nations highest priority to one that struggles to maintain even fi fth or sixth place.

Cold War spending high

I suspect that it would be hard for the current generation who were brought up to live in a world of great expectation to imagine that, back in 1960, the 18bn we spent on defence that year was not only double the amount that we spent on the NHS but substantially more than the amount that we spent on education; more than the combined amount spent on pensions and social security and also on transport too. In terms of transport it is worth remembering that in 1960 much of the system including virtually all the railways, the bulk of the air transport industry and of road cargo was actually nationalised, meaning that it was heavily reliant on the taxpayer for funds.

But it was to be another ten years, 1970 in fact when, at 28bn, defence expenditure became a mere equal to the amount that was then being spent by each of the social security and education departments. By 1980, defence accounted for

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IN 1960 THE 18BN WE SPENT ON DEFENCE THAT YEAR WAS NOT ONLY DOUBLE THE AMOUNT THAT WE SPENT ON THE NHS BUT SUBSTANTIALLY MORE THAN THE AMOUNT THAT WE SPENT ON EDUCATION; MORE THAN THE COMBINED AMOUNT SPENT ON PENSIONS AND SOCIAL SECURITY AND ALSO ON TRANSPORT TOO

13bn of the annual public spending and, while this was still approximately 1bn more than was being spent on the NHS at the same time, it was well below the amount being spent on social security.

By 1990 defence spending had fallen well down the league table of public expenditure and, at 23bn, it was not only well below that being spent on social security but also that on public pensions, education and the NHS as well. Race forward another ten years to 2000 and you fi nd that the 28bn that was being spent on defence that year represented just over a third of the amount being spent on pensions and just about half that spent by the nation on social security. Indeed, by then, spending on defence had fallen well below the individual amounts then being spent on the NHS and education.

In fi scal year 2015/16 total spending on defence is put at 46bn, a fi gure that represents far less than one-third the amount spent on the NHS. In terms of priority, defence is now an also ran and yet, while the Cold War as we knew it might have ended, the level of indirect threat against the UK and the requirement for UK forces to engage in international confl ict in support of our NATO allies has little changed. Suffi ce to say that the Royal Air Force has, in fact, been involved in no fewer than 57 conventional operations since 1989 and has been continuously engaged in the Middle East since Iraqs invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

We have come a very long way of course and probably the best example of that is that spending on the NHS has actually doubled since 1997/8. Spending on defence has risen over that time span too but this was from a low point of 275bn. In fact, following Options for Change and the Defence Costs Study, under John Majors Conservative administration spending on defence actually fell from 345bn in in 1992/3 to 287bn in 1996/7.

Looking back, we can see that defence expenditure in real terms in, say 2008/9, was 7% lower than its peak level in 1984/5 when, as a proportion

MoD

of GDP, defence accounted for 52% of public sector expenditure. Ever since then spending on defence as a proportion of GDP has been falling and today we fi nd that, at %, we have fallen below the previously low point of approximately 26% set in 1930.

That doesnt, of course, answer the question which political party is better or worse for defence and, while we are all well aware of the devastation that occurred since SDSR 2010, we should perhaps also be aware that, between 1979/80 and 1996/7, real terms defence expenditure fell by an average of 06% each year, albeit that, between 1997/8 and 2008/9, there had been a 27% annual increase.

Rarely do the published annual amounts spent on defence include other than core budget expenditure. For instance, during the last Blair and only Brown administration, an extra 14bn was spent on Iraq and Afghanistan. Money to cover engagement by UK armed forces in confl icts such as these comes direct from the Treasury. What can be said is that the last Labour government was spending an average of 25% of GDP on defence but that the fi gure for the Coalition Government is far more likely to have been closer to 21% of GDP.

A bleak outlook?

And the future? No matter who is in power from May, I consider the outlook for defence to be no better than it is now. The Prime Minister gave a commitment back in 2010 that defence expenditure would rose in real terms from 2016 but, with Whitehall looking to shave another 1bn to 15bn off the defence budget, these may be hollow words. At the current rate, UK government spending on defence will, by 2017/18, fall well short of the 2% GDP commitment that the Prime Minister worked so hard to get all NATO members to work toward.

But, if the Tories are no great friends of defence, neither are any of the others. Indeed, as far as I can see, Labour has no intention of reversing fortunes of defence despite the increased visibility of threat and various warnings. And, if either of the Lib-Dems or Scottish Nationalists where to fi nd themselves in a Coalition with either of the Tories or Labour, I somehow doubt that the dangers for defence would be eased. Both are against Trident replacement of course and they could give either of the two main parties in a Coalition an excuse to delay.

As far as I know, UKIP is the only party to have said that it would increase spending on defence equipment and increase the overall defence budget by 174bn to 50bn in 2016. These are fairly easy loose promises to make but note that it has not only pledged to disband the Ministry of Defence, cancel Trident replacement and remove foreign aid but has also come out against any active potential involvement by UK military forces in Syria.

All of this I am afraid paints another sad picture for UK defence.

Will defence become a UK

election issue?


TransmissionLETTERS AND ONLINE

The nuclear option? Regarding the long-term considerations facing the world aerospace industry and the research necessary to take the industry into the future, I would like to make the following comments. Todays commercial fl eets use fossil fuels, notably liquid hydrocarbons, to power aircraft. Whether freight or passenger carrying, the huge requirements for this kind of fast transport are growing and certainly show no signs of going away in the future. The main hurdle in the future is not noise, nor airport planning, airways and control. The critical factor is fuel. As liquid fuels become harder to obtain, there will be ever stronger reasons to use them for manufacturing rather than burning them as fuel for aerospace propulsion. In the time between now and then, the human race will have to put alternative technologies into place to support the future.What alternatives do we have? (a) Bio-fuels including wood and the fuels that can be made from it, plants that provide oil from their seeds and sea-grown organisms. However, half million (approx) tonnes per day of such will be needed for transport and this will be competing with food needs. (b) Solar power energy from the Sun can be stored as energy in batteries and by electrolysis of water as hydrogen. However, the use of hydrogen as an aerospace fuel would require huge aircraft to carry enough gas to fl y an aircraft any useful distance; it is impractical to liquefy as the temperature is too low and at high pressure the weight of the containment cylinders would be excessive.(c) Nuclear nuclear energy requires a reactor

airframe integration and contingencies. The work will be long and diffi cult. Fifty years may be too short a time to expect a complete

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Charles Gardner (holding microphone) at the RAeS Garden Party at Radlett on 15 September 1946 with the jet-powered Lancaster test bed visible in the background on the right.

and machines to convert the energy into electricity and a method of converting the electric power into propulsive force. The fuel is compact but presents radiation hazards. The diffi cult part is to provide small enough nuclear reactors with associated electrical generating machinery. Of the three sources of energy only the nuclear option has the potential for satisfying our long-term future requirements. A current Airbus A380 has a combined engine and fuel weight of about 284 tonnes. The challenge is therefore to achieve a nuclear power plant (comprising shielding fuel + conversion engine/s + propulsion unit/s) weighing (for example), no more than 284 tonnes. Airframes will need to be developed, adapted or modifi ed to integrate with the power plant. We cannot leave the future to look after itself. The problem is a world responsibility and will need long-term research support from major countries around the world. This would include research into areas such as

fuel, reactors and control, electricity generation, heat and radiation management, propulsion, structures and containment,

Jet-powered LancasterReferring to the photograph of the RAeS Garden Party(1) over which there was some doubt about the year, I can confi rm that there was a signifi cant RAeS Garden Party in September 1946. At that event Rolls-Royce wished to demonstrate its Nene turbojet and had prepared a Lancaster as a test bed. In what was called Operation 100, it was fi tted with two Merlins inboard and the Nenes outboard. The senior Rolls-Royce representative was Procter Gregg. On board for a demonstration fl ight was my father Charles Gardner, then BBC Air correspondent, who reported that it was the fi rst turbine-powered fl ight by a journalist or other passenger. In his log book dated 15 September 1946, he wrote: RAeS Garden Party at Radlett. My fi rst jet fl ight! Beat up the crowds on Merlins and then on jets. A memorable experience.

Robert Gardner MRAeS

result. It may take fi ve years merely to set up the organisation! The time to start is now.

S L Barrington

Role of the RAeS I applaud the Presidents invigorating and very personal distillation (especially for the benefi t of non-members) of what our great Society stands for(2). This is warmly to be welcomed particularly as he regards his simple words as marking a beginning rather than the end of relevant discussion. In this spirit I offer a modest contribution to the discussion. I have reviewed our Royal Charter and must fi rst point out, as a preliminary, that Aeronautics includes Astronautics most appropriately recognised by

An air-to-air view of the Convair NB-36H Peacemaker experimental Nuclear Test Aircraft (NTA) modifi ed to carry a 3mW, air-cooled nuclear reactor in its bomb bay although it was not used to power the aircraft. The NB-36H, seen here accompanied by a Boeing B-50 Superfortress, completed 47 test fl ights between July 1955 and March 1957 before the programme was abandoned.

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OnlineAdditional features and content are available to view online at http://media.aerosociety.com/aerospace-insight

1. AEROSPACE, Transmissions, March 2015, p12.2. AEROSPACE, Afterburner, March 2015, p 42. 3. AEROSPACE, Skills crisis, February 2015, p 22 / http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight-Blog/2830/Skills-crisis4. AEROSPACE, So you want to be a drone entrepreneur, March 2015, p 16 / http://aerosociety.com/News/Insight- Blog/2902/So-you-want-to-be-a-drone-entrepreneur

the Presidents fi rst heading Safe, effi cient and sustainable aviation and spacefl ight. Taken together, all the Presidents headlines illustrate salient features of our output as a learned society but the concept of a learned society is not made explicit which seems a pity because a stranger might gain the impression that the Society is no more than a bundle of sectoral products illustrated most vividly by the Presidents second heading An effective defence aerospace capability. This is perfectly correct as a national aspiration but it is not the express purpose of our learned Society whose essential role is to nurture & promote excellence in the underlying art, science & technology. Some members may even question whether the Societys scarce resources are optimally expended on air power which, since 1909, has been the express aim of the most vigorous Air League. Of course, no-one can deny the national importance of defence capability. Nor can anyone deny that the professional standards of members of the Society and its multiple activities form a continuing essential foundation for defence competence. But that vital role is just one consequence of the Societys role as a learned society. Moreover, several prominent members of the RAeS play leading roles in the Air League. But, if Council decides that, to attract new members, the message is best communicated by developing further sectoral headings, I suggest at least two candidates for consideration:- An effi cient civil aviation industry- The collection and presentation of members

@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook. www.aerosociety.comi f

views on topics of national and international importance. This topic is based on Clause 4(i) of the Royal Charter and may serve as a possible alternative to the Presidents heading Informed debate on aeronautical issues

Harold Caplan, FRAeS

On 9 March The American Air Museum at IWM Duxford, supported by Boeing UK, launched a new interactive STEM project for primary and middle school children, with the centrepiece of an 1/8th scale B-29 Superfortress model. The outreach initiative, which saw the children assemble the B-29 to learn about fl ight, as well as other interactive STEM displays, aims to reach 2,000 young people in the next year, and is planned to run for the next decade. Said Boeing UK President Sir Michael Arthur: The great thing about this project is that 1,000s of young people can be inspired.

David Childs [On favourite books on World Book Day] In terms of infl uence, James Bigglesworth Biggles has to be right up there. As well as inventing that character, W E Johns was also responsible for some of the RFC recruiting posters.

UL Maintenance & Operations [On skills shortages (3)] Need to diversify efforts to bridge the gap... RAeS is doing well and there is clearly space for other aerospace/aviation organisations to contribute. Well done RAeS!

Phillip Keane UK requires some 50,000 fresh engineering grads per year for the next decade (according to IET report) ...but deports several thousands of foreign grads within a year of graduation due to visa regulations. Because one department doesnt know what the other is doing, then you will have idiots like Cameron and Clegg declaring how much they are doing for the engineering and innovation sector while haemorrhaging talent faster than they can create it. What a mess.

iOladayo A. Advanced manufacturing engineering student at Loughborough University [On skills shortages (3)] Well, we only get to hear about the skills shortages in the aerospace industry with no specifi c area identifi ed. I believe the industry should do more by training young people graduating from universities in the areas where these shortages are most acute but rather they employ graduates with 1st class degree with commercial/management skills.

Matthew H. Managing Consultant - Aerospace, Defence and Aviation Engineering strength is lacking. Part of the challenge is that, in the UK, there is a stronger drive to work as a contractor versus a permanent role - leading to higher salaries/hourly rates. From a recruitment consultancy perspective, international applications continue to grow. The recognised academic quality from India and Asia continues but more and more applicants are being seen from Central and Eastern Europe. The challenge then changes to relocation costs, visas and security clearances. Home-grown is defi nitely

best but it is providing the opportunities for that fi rst step on the ladder which is diffi cult. However, it is excellent to see more women engineers in our sectors!

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@LookingUpWayUp [On launch of Partners in Flight STEM project] So cool! Were huge supporters of STEM!

@TCornish5 All CAD- designed pieces or are they alloy? Looks great.

IWM Duxford and Boeing UK launch Partners in Flight STEM project

@carolvorders Me at Royal Aeronautical Society soonish x RT @AeroSo-ciety Join @carolvorders for Amy Johnson Lecture on 9 July

@EmmaLawford [On new Airbus Business suite revamp] Always loved using the area down there but this is looking extreme-ly #inspiring congrats!!!

@BD_CFMSuk [On so you want to be a drone operator(4)] Informative article on the realities of becoming a professional drone/UAV operator in the UK from @AeroSociety.

@lloydColman This is well worth a read if you are thinking of setting up in business with a drone.


SAFETYSafety management systems

One of the most signifi cant changes in the management of risk in the aviation industry is the increasing reliance on safety management systems (SMS). In their elemental

form, these systems consist of a tailored risk assessment undertaken by the organisation that generates the risk. This assessment relies on the identifi cation of hazards and then the gathering of, and interpretation of risk data. Mitigations for the risks identifi ed are put in place, so that a more or less, defi ned level of safety is maintained. Hence, SMS is a kind of over-engineered common sense. The regulatory oversight of a SMS generally involves the inspection of practices and documents held by the organisations that are taken to be the evidence that the procedures are being applied in practice. SMS in so far as they are tailored to particular hazards are generally contrasted with rule sets that determine what may be allowed (prescription), or may not (proscription).

All of these types of rules are often misleadingly referred to as prescriptive regulation or even more misleadingly as one-size-fi ts-all regulation as, in practice, these rules are rather more discriminating.

There may be different rules for different levels of risk, such as commercial versus private aviation and so, in practice, the rules are typically a-number-of-sizes-fi ts-all.

The number-of-sizes-fi ts-all approach generally has a desired level of safety that is prescribed by a body that is independent of the operator. However, the SMS approach may have a desired level of safety that is, in effect, determined by the operator; an example is the risk assessment for the overfl ight of confl ict zones. However, there are also regulations that appear to have an independently determined level of safety but they are written in a way that is so open to interpretation, that they are, in effect, also determined by the operator. Examples are fatigue risk management rules where key terms have no precise meaning and fundamentally there is no defi nition of how tired is too tired to fl y. It is possible that the vague language of such regulations is by intention rather than accident. Regulators may be fearful of producing rules that leave operators hamstrung for years, yet otherwise regulators have to regulate; writing rules that place a fi rm requirement to actively do something nebulous can seem like a good compromise.

Dr ROB HUNTER Head of Flight Safety, British Airline Pilots Association(BALPA), comments on the rise and rise of safety management systems.

Illusions of safety

I BELIEVE THAT IT DOES NOT SERVE THE FLIGHT SAFETY AGENDA TO HAVE THE SMS ARENA FILLED WITH TOO MANY CHEERLEADERS AND NOT ENOUGH CRITICS

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agemenings togethSg togetheThe safety of the aviation industry is of critical incident prevention and the financial performanSafety Management Systems (SMS) and their Aviation Organisation (ICAO) facilitates a moreelements that create a safe operation. With ovesafety related training for industry, Cranfield UnCentre has developed this new course to enhanManagement Manual.

It brings together all the relevant academic experegulation and accident investigation. This courssafety management systems and their practical ienvironment.

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i f APRIL 2015@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com 15

fatigue because they will become embroiled in company investigations that have a quasi-disciplinary tone. It is less fatiguing to put up with fatigue than to report it. An example of the likely scale of under reporting was illustrated following a Freedom of Information (FOI) request to the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) in 2012. The request had been to ask for the numbers of occasions on which pilots had reported involuntarily falling asleep in the cockpit; such occurrences are required in law to be reported to the CAA. The response revealed that there had been two such reports in a 30-year period. Working from models of sleepiness and knowing pilot rosters, it is likely that this actually occurs at least every day (if not every hour, indeed, in the window of circadian low, in the early hours of the UK morning, this could be happening more or less continuously). Notwithstanding the socio-political disincentives to fatigue reporting, micro-sleeps of less than two minutes generally occur

Lowest common safety denominator

As part of the growing adoption of the SMS method; levels of safety are actually, or covertly, commonly at the discretion of the operator. One of the drivers for the move towards this concept of self-determination of risk is the bluntness of independently-described levels of safety as a safety instrument. For example, the motorway speed limit does not mean that all cars travelling at the maximum speed limit have an equivalent level of safety, because among many other factors that determine safety at speed, cars with modern braking systems have shorter stopping distances. In this regard, a better level-of-safety-based maximum speed limit might be the maximum speed at which it has been demonstrated that the vehicle can stop within, say, 300m. However, despite the fettering limitations of the independently-described safety limit, this approach taken in setting speed limits, blood alcohol limits, aircraft weight limits and so on, can be a pragmatic cost-effective approach to safety assurance.

Moreover, having the level of safety determined by the operator is not without its problems. In assessing overfl ight risks on 17 July last year some airlines considered it safe to fl y over Eastern Ukraine, others did not. The shooting down of MH17 has thrown into stark relief the variable output of the SMS method, yet there are many more features of the SMS method that deserve our critical attention.

Critical evaluation

In this article I preferentially focus on some of the problems of SMS, as elsewhere these systems are heavily and largely unquestioningly promoted. SMS are here to stay and I believe that it does not serve the fl ight safety agenda to have the SMS arena fi lled with too many cheerleaders and not enough critics. To make SMS work, participants in the SMS need to be able to critically evaluate the design and operation of their SMS.

In principle, the SMS method is sound, in so far that the system has the ambition of identifying and managing all hazards appropriately. However, in practice, SMS do not generally consider that the SMS itself could be a hazard. The factors that may turn a SMS into a house of cards generally arise from confl icting interests in the human designer/s of the SMS. Such human factors can act at individual and organisational levels in both the operator and the regulator.

An individual, such as a manager, can contrive the design of the system to serve their own needs or the design can be contrived to suppress the reports of individuals who may be fearful of the consequences of their reporting action. For example, some pilots say that they are fearful of reporting

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Contrary to CAA statistics of two reported instances over 30 years of pilots falling asleep in the cockpit, BALPA believes that such incidents may be happening at least once every day.

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IF AN OPERATOR IS FINANCIALLY CHALLENGED, IT MAY PRODUCE AN ECONOMICAL SMS THAT MAY BE NO MORE THAN A COPY-AND-PASTE OF WRITTEN MATERIAL THAT TALKS THE TALK BUT DOES NOT WALK THE WALK OF ANY SUBSTANTIVE SAFETY PRACTICE

part truth of this is that safety management in the aviation industry has concentrated on accidents that have occurred and on making recommendations to ensure that they do not happen again. Now that accident rates are so low, it is reasonable in order to seek further safety improvement, to concentrate on safety process which is a forte of the SMS method.

However, the effectiveness of this approach is diffi cult to measure and there is plenty of evidence of safety failures in SMS-rich environments. In this regard, the shift in regulatory strategy towards SMS is much more experimental than is commonly portrayed. Notwithstanding this, there are many

without awareness and additionally drowsiness with associated performance decrement can also be without subjective awareness.

At the organisational level, the fundamental confl ict is between productivity and safety. Statements such as safety is our number one priority and if you think safety is expensive try having an accident are aimed at having us think that this confl ict is unlikely to be anything more than a theoretical possibility. However, these statements warrant closer consideration because trying to have an accident in so far as it can mean running a greater risk of having an accident, has a different meaning to having an accident. For a small airline, at current fatal accident rates, if the airline were to maintain an industry average level of safety it may not see a fatal accident for 80 years or so. Hence, if the airline CEO did think that safety was expensive and that, by reducing the airlines spend on safety to, so to speak, try having an accident, the CEO could well fi nd that, by halving the safety budget, the airline would still not see the attributable accident for decades, by which time the CEO would be long gone.

Hence, if you think safety is expensive, you could well fi nd that it was true and that, from the point of view of the fi nancial survival of the airline, trying to have an accident was a great idea because it was still unlikely to actually happen, yet you get all the immediate benefi ts of the cost-saving. The management guru Druckers famous statement was: The fi rst duty of an organisation is to survive. In this regard, claims by some operators that safety is our number one priority may be disingenuous. If spending on safety would put an airline out of business, it is generally better to save the money today, so that tomorrow you can think about being safe.

Beyond prescriptive regulations

So-called prescriptive regulation is frequently portrayed as being the fi rst form of safety assurance and that the new systems of safety management are a superior evolution in safety assurance. The

Youve got to draw the line somewhere a memorial to Samuel Plimsoll who campaigned in the 19th century for load lines on ships to enhance safety, against the interests of the commercial shipping industry.

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cases in which originally-existing forms of self-managed risk assessment and mitigation, an SMS by any another name, which failed often in some very public catastrophic way, was then replaced by a number-of-sizes-fi ts-all regulation at the behest of government. In this way the trend towards SMS may be not an evolution but a reversion.

An illustration of this is the Plimsoll load line on ships. Prior to the 1876 Merchant Shipping Act, ship owners were judged to be best placed to determine how heavily loaded their ships would be. Seamen and ships captains that attempted to refuse to go to sea in overloaded ships were coerced into doing so. Despite the losses of overloaded ships at sea, it was argued that safety was the paramount interest of ship owners and, on this basis, regulation was unwarranted interference. The MP, Samuel Plimsoll, campaigned against fi erce commercial interest to obtain a load line on ships. At fi rst this load line, known as the Norwood line, was to be determined by the ship owners. This self-determination of risk that could so obviously be biased by the commercial interests of the ship owners was ridiculed at the time. One ships captain famously sniped that he would paint the line on the funnel of his ship! It was the combination of the sustained efforts of Plimsoll, the continuing loss of merchant seamens lives at sea and the political pressure of public sentiment that led to the load line position being determined by an independent body. The expression Youve got to draw the line somewhere was coined during the Plimsoll parliamentary debates that were extensively covered in the media of the day.

Who knows best?

SMS that identify the wrong expert to design and populate the system hazards, risks and mitigations are vulnerable. Although managers are commonly held to best know the risk, this may not be the case in reality. In fact, it may be the worker in the fi eld that has the best appreciation of a particular risk. Sometimes the person who is well placed to assess the risk may not be best placed to manage that risk. For example, in the moments before their death, drivers killed by falling asleep at the wheel generally know that they are sleepy but still continue to drive. This is because their fatigue impairs their ability to appreciate the risk. It can also be the case that the person who best knows the risk is also the most able to conceal the risk should they be so minded.

SMS have a component of board level accountability and this can be a good thing. The board are seen as the owners of the risk because they generate the risk and because they have some jeopardy for the risk. However, the board does not have as much jeopardy as the occupants of the aircraft who may be killed if the aircraft were to

crash. The problem with having the risk owner (the airline board) as being someone different from the person that has the substantive jeopardy for the risk (the crew and passengers) is that it facilitates the creation of a system which is, in effect, not an SMS but a BMS a blame management system. This is because the principal risk for a board is not that they are killed in one of their aircraft, but whether they are blamed for someone else being killed in their aircraft. A blame management system may not have safety as its primary goal because its primary goal is the prevention of blame.

Owned science

The SMS method is vulnerable to the problem of owned science. Earlier I likened SMS to over-engineered common sense. The engineering is largely the application of scientifi c method to the gathering and interpretation of data. A principle of scientifi c work is that of peer review. This is a system which exposes conclusions to greater scrutiny and, through careful description of the methods involved, allows reproduction of the experiment and verifi cation of fi ndings. In situations where organisations are commissioning science to support an industrial practice of high commercial value, because they own this data, they can conceal or choose not to study what is not in their interest to expose and promote what is in their interest.

SMS may reasonably allow operators to take into account their operational experience to support new safety practices or amend old safety

Airbus A350 MSN3 cockpit.

IN SITUATIONS WHERE ORGANISATIONS ARE COMMISSIONING SCIENCE TO SUPPORT AN INDUSTRIAL PRACTICE OF HIGH COMMERCIAL VALUE, BECAUSE THEY OWN THIS DATA, THEY CAN CONCEAL OR CHOOSE NOT TO STUDY WHAT IS NOT IN THEIR INTEREST TO EXPOSE AND PROMOTE WHAT IS IN THEIR INTEREST

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NOT ONLY MIGHT TRUST-BASED SMS NOT WORK IF THERE ARE CONFLICTING INTERESTS, THEY MIGHT MAKE THINGS MUCH WORSE

the technical resource of the regulator as an asset for the industry may diminish and the airlines may then have greater potential to mislead a less-expert regulator. Additionally, SMS, if properly executed, may place less economic burden on the regulator and more on the industry. The vulnerability is that, if an operator is fi nancially challenged, it may produce an economical SMS that may be no more than a copy-and-paste of written material that talks the talk but does not walk the walk of any substantive safety practice.

The uncertainty of interpretation of regulation and the system part of safety, management can work together to belie the common sense

that an SMS really is and turn it into something of such impenetrable techno-bureaucratic complexity that it

becomes an area of

specialisation that requires an expert. Airlines can outsource this

expertise to an SMS commercial consultancy. In this regard

marketable features of such a product, such as the protection of the board (the customer) from blame and the claim that the SMS can allow a greater level of productivity for a given level of safety compliance, become potentially biasing factors that undermine the intent of the SMS.

A further disadvantage is the formation of commercial bandwagons. Here the vulnerability is that the commercial providers overemphasise the need for their service such that safety resource is misappropriated within the industry, because airline managers have been persuaded that their greatest risk lies in the area promoted by the commercial band wagoneers.

Because the effectiveness of an SMS depends so much on the will of the operator, we can see how a SMS may make safe operators safer and other operators less safe. Confl icting interest is the fl y in the ointment of SMS. The control of such confl icts is too often assumed to be suffi ciently safeguarded by vague, easily coerced, aspirational factors such as trust and safety culture. In general, not only might trust-based SMS not work if there are confl icting interests, they might make things much worse. If instead of policing traffi c speeds, we relied on drivers self-reports of their speeding violations, not only might we expect drivers to not report their speeding but also that they might speed more often. SMS, if not suffi ciently safeguarded against confl icting interest, can be a nave approach that may undermine fl ight safety.

practices of no proven value. However, operational experience, where it is allowed to be relied upon in regulation, is generally not defi ned, Rather than having some fi rm statistical basis, it may amount to little more than anecdote, a feeling that something has been gotten away with so far, so it must be safe. Worse still, a feeling that something has been got away with so far, so it must be too safe.

The SMS method is also vulnerable to a form of reverse-engineering in which the SMS designer, having already decided a set of outcomes that are desired, contrives a process that apparently leads to an unbiased fi nding of the desired outcome. For

example, managers that are required to provide metrics of their

own performance will generally

know

which metrics will make them look good and which metrics will make them look bad.

SMS are strongly promoted by regulators. The regulators stand to gain from the SMS approach, because the approach transfers some responsibility from the regulator to the airlines. This is potentially an important regulatory human factor. Regulators that mandate an explicit quantifi able level of safety are potentially liable if that level proves insuffi cient to prevent an accident. SMS can appeal to regulators because the SMS as a blame management system puts regulators at arms length from accidents. Further regulatory self-interest is met, in so far that there may be an overall cost reduction to the regulator if there is a move towards getting the regulated bodies to take ownership of more of the risk.

In practice, the regulatory strategy for oversight can be to audit the airlines SMS. If this is taken to be a more process-based task, then the auditors can be administrative staff rather than more expensive technical staff. This is not to say that regulators should not seek the most economical method of regulating. Rather, it is to argue there is a potential vulnerability that this economic interest may compromise the quality of the regulatory practice.

Diminishing technical resources

A potential disadvantage of a shift in the balance of administrative and technical capability is that

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AEROSPACEUK General Election

So what do we do now? were the last words in a great fi lm about US elections. Robert Redford, the eponymous Candidate had just won election to the Senate based on pure political chicanery;

but what exactly was he to do now in offi ce? On the eve of a British General Election, the same question might be asked of a raft of incoming ministers with aerospace or aviation-related responsibilities.

This may involve a new team entirely and on the evidence of current polling data, probably another Coalition Government. There is also a secondary uncertainty affecting Britains relationship with the European Union (EU). So, from airports to defence policy, what will be the main aerospace and aviation issues facing the next administration?

Airports and a new London runway

First up must be a decision on the interminable future of Londons airports. There can be no excuse for ducking a speedy resolution this time. The Davies Commission has squeezed every possible bit of data and opinion out of the conundrum; and the newspapers have made a penny or two out of Heathrow (two versions) and Gatwick promoting their cases. The cynic in me suggests that a lot will depend on the political shape of a few London constituencies and the composition of the new

Prof KEITH HAYWARD FRAeS, looks at the forthcoming UK GeneralElection and its impact on aerospace and aviation.

Britain decides

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concerned, it has always been easier to go with a 70-year fl ow of political justifi cation than to publish a well thought-through strategic case for continued nuclear possession. Up to now, while modest but signifi cant sums have already been committed to nuclear modernisation, the next fi ve years will demand much larger sums to build and to buy the hardware; and beyond that expensive life-cycle costs. This would have been explained in vaguely defi ned terms as an insurance policy in a generally insecure and uncertain future world. But with an electorate persuaded that terrorism, cyber war and real confl icts against the likes of ISIS are the most dangerous threats to Britons at home or abroad, a nuclear weapon force with or without a Union Jack on top without some better justifi cation would look like a very expensive luxury.

But with Russia rampant, we might have to dust off the old Cold War arguments about second centres of decision-making or preventing a decoupling of the greater American nuclear threat to deter Moscow (these concepts posited the need to increase uncertainty in Russian minds that any military action against UK-Europe would NOT lead to a massive nuclear exchange).

Only the Scottish Nationalists and the Greens are set against any form of nuclear modernisation. The Liberal Democrats (with some dissenters) would accept a cheaper option. The Conservatives and Labour are unequivocally in favour of a major nuclear commitment but would examine cheaper aircraft/missile combinations. In any event, the incoming government owes the electorate some elaboration of exactly why a very large amount of money should be spent on a Trident force renewal.

Government. If the latter depends on the former, Gatwick is a shoe-in.

However, in all seriousness, the UK needs a positive decision and quickly. Business will be lost if London airports fail to cope with demand. This is more than just lost revenue on the part of airport operators; all of the individual cases have cited the challenge posed by neighbouring airports offering a wider range of destinations especially in the emerging markets such as China and Latin America. The issue here is providing connectivity for a modern, globalised economy. There is clearly some scope for regional airport expansion which could be improved through regulatory action allowing non-EU airlines onward traffi c rights. This, too, might be something for the next Secretary of State for Transport to consider with some urgency. (He might also seek to head off any moves to protect less-effi cient European carriers). But further procrastination on future airport development will simply not be justifi ed the inestimable Sir Howard Davies and his team have removed any excuse against prompt action. Evidence-based policy-making should rule on this issue.

Thinking strategically about defence

Next up: the Strategic Defence Review (SDR) and the future of the nuclear deterrent. Although in principle this should be a long-term outlook, it is almost certainly to be infl uenced by shorter-term economic pressures. No one has so far demurred from the NATO commitment of 2% of GDP devoted to defence but for the foreseeable future there will not be much spare cash to pay for equipment and forces beyond those already contracted for an expeditionary navy in the main. Yet, as minds begin to focus on the more immediate threat emanating from a resurgent Russia, gaps and needs in other areas will become more evident.

The most urgent is likely to be a Nimrod replacement to cover the UKs littoral and to guard the nuclear force which evidently has been tailed by Russian attack submarines. ISTAR in general, including space-based assets, may need upgrading. This may entail working with European neighbours (but see below) if reliance on the US for some crucial strategic intelligence gathering becomes more unreliable. Similarly, if the Russian threat becomes more entrenched, an examination of the mix of F-35 might be in order, if conventional bases for the more capable F-35A are to be retained. Commitments to next-generation RPAS should also be on the Secretary of States agenda for strategic as well as for industrial reasons.

Paradoxically, Russian challenges to the European status quo might make it easier to justify the billions for upgrading the Trident missile force. Where the UKs independent deterrent is

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Prime Minister David Cameron on a recent visit to BAE Systems in Warton to announce the launch of degree apprenticeships in aeronautical engineering. With further cuts in military spending being proposed, despite threats from a resurgent Russia and increasing UK commitments overseas, defence is likely to be an important issue in the next election.

MAINTAINING BRITAINS EXISTING ADVANTAGES IN COLLABORATIVE VENTURES, OR WITHIN FIRMS SUCH AS AIRBUS OR MBDA, WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC IF THERE WERE MORE OBSTACLES TO TRADING AND WORKING WITH EUROPEAN PARTNERS


AEROSPACEUK General Election

was a bi-partisan effort, following a report instigated by Labour). The Coalition put more money behind existing strengths such as communications and scientifi c satellites. But it also introduced an impressive range of low-cost initiatives designed to build a broader space industrial base. More dramatically, it took the UK back into, or close to re-entering, manned space. The next government will have to confi rm or otherwise back-off commitments to a space port. It might also have to think about re-joining a future launcher programme based on more innovative technology than a simple rocket. Finally, the Government might want carefully to review its approach to spectrum regulation, perhaps more mindful of the satellite operators who do business out of London.

And Europe?

Which of course brings us to the elephant in the room Europe: by the end of next month, there might be a date set for a referendum on a British

exit from the EU. A Conservative Government, especially if

dependent on support from the UK

Independence Party, would be committed to holding a referendum by 2017, if not

earlier. Even the Liberal Democrats

the most solid supporters of British

EU membership, may want a referendum to settle the issue once and for

all. Labour might concede one for the same reason but for the moment are set against a referendum. In the event, much will depend on the terms the Government might have negotiated from Brussels and the degree to which it might favour a yes or no.

The exact affects of a yes to exit on British aviation and aerospace are hard, if not at this stage, impossible fully to evaluate. Much would depend on the terms negotiated with Brussels and our former colleague states. And these may in turn depend upon the mood and sense of good or ill will generated by our departure. Membership of the European Economic Area (EEA), joining Norway and Iceland, would give the UK access to the European market but with little power to shape future EU policy and legislation. The best one can say at this stage is that the period prior to the decision would be fraught with considerable uncertainty; what is possible to describe some of the areas of potential impact.

Investment in aerospace technology

So, thats the fi rst couple of years accounted for. Civil aerospace and the space sector have done well under the out-going government for good economic reasons. Aerospace has a key role in the continuing struggle to rebalance the economy, and this objective at least has multi-party support. Depending on the SDSR, we might also hope for some useful aerospace-relevant technology acquisition programmes from the Defence Industrial Partnership. But again austerity politics might just undermine all of these aspirations. However, the future of RPAS development in the UK has more salience as the Eurofi ghter Typhoon more export sales notwithstanding enters its fi nal phase of development and commercial exploitation. This may be the only viable means of keeping alive the UKs competence as a military aerospace systems integrator and a route to market for several key OEMs.

It is also just possible that over the lifetime of the next Government, Airbus will want to launch an all-new airliner. In some form or another (WTO permitting), the request will go out for public investment in the new programme. By this time, the UK might have recovered from the worst of austerity economics and the government should be willing and able to support another generation of UK Airbus investment, helping to maintain Europes most successful collaborative exercise. Newspaper reports that the UK government has reduced its royalty demands on its A320 investment (circa late 1980s) imply that another lever to retain core wing competences in the UK may also be available. However, with the A380 selling slowly, the Treasury will want some solid assurances that further investment in Airbus, or other forms of public support for R&D, will be justifi ed. Equally, the UK will be under pressure to maintain commitments to space, either independently or within a European context.

The space sector did especially well out of the outgoing government (although in all fairness, this

The next British government will have to decide whether or not to proceed with plans for a UK-based space port.

The exact effects on British aviation and aerospace of a yes vote for the UK to exit from the European Union are diffi cult to evaluate but could include more obstacles to trading and working with European partners, exclusion from EU R&D funding and collaborative projects and the evolution of the emerging single European defence market in ways inimitable to British interests.

Realining the UKs defence industrial links further from Europe and closer to the US might increase long-term technological dependence and erode core competences.

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23i f APRIL 2015@aerosociety Find us on LinkedIn Find us on Facebook www.aerosociety.com

Aerospace manufacturing

Of course, for many years in the 1960s, aerospace was Britains major substantive presence within the old EEC, acting as a promissory note on membership. And while life for a transnational company is easier within a larger, more integrated Europe, investment decisions by the likes of Airbus are now more infl uenced by levels of domestic spending on the product and its technology not necessarily on a location within the EU.

However, maintaining Britains existing advantages in collaborative ventures, or within fi rms such as Airbus or MBDA, would be more problematic if there were more obstacles to trading and working with European partners. The UK would be excluded from EU R&D funding; the emerging single European defence market might evolve in ways inimitable to British interests if the UK government loses direct infl uence over events. Generally, the UK might fi nd it harder to enter collaborative ventures with Europeans, although again the size of the domestic defence market and the quality of its technology could still be welcome to a European venture. On the other hand, re-enforcing Britains defence industrial links with the US might provide an alternative, although this might further increase long-term technological dependence and erode core competences.

The same would apply to the space sector: although there are non-EU members of ESA, increasingly ESA and European space policy will be decided by the EU Space Council. The UK would still be able to participate in ESA programmes on an la carte basis and benefi t from the industrial and technological returns that fl ow from collaboration. However, the UK would at best be an observer to events that again it would have little ability to shape in its favour.

The airline sector

The creation of the single European air transport market has been one of the most unequivocal benefi ts that the EU has delivered to the aviation sector. Shaped by European legislation, promoted by the European Commission and policed by the European Court, the EU single market has helped

to bring cheap fl ights and greater convenience to British passengers. In principle, leaving the EU should not make much difference in the short term. Membership of the EEA should preserve British access to the single European air transport market. But again, the British government would lose its ability to ensure that the market remains designed to deliver the best outcomes for the UK.

A trickier and more complex issue may emerge in relation to air traffi c rights with non-

EU states. The UK has been party to the general Open Skies

agreements with the US; there is the possibility of a

formal linkage with the ASEAN East Asian air transport market; and there are emerging questions of relations with the Gulf States and their airlines. The UK

might be able directly to inherit existing rights

and obligations vis--vis the US. But it might also

have to re-negotiate separate agreements, along the lines of the

old Bermuda treaties.

Air traffi c control

Membership or otherwise of the EU does not affect geography: UK airspace is a vital element in European air traffi c management, and a more effective and effi cient system benefi ts all Europeans. There should be little change in this area. Accessing European money and hardware programmes to up date the technology might prove to be more diffi cult. But again, there is a mutual interest here to support the status quo.

After 7 May

As we go to press, the outcome still looks too hard to call. But the aerospace and aviation agenda for any incoming minister is a tough set of questions, with some issues dependent very much on how the UK economy evolves over the next fi ve years and the degree to which fi scal austerity still reigns. There are many other policy questions that will touch on UK aerospace over this period: managing and solving a growing skills shortage for one, as even more of the Baby Boom engineers and technicians retire. With no political bias intended, the UKs aviation and aerospace sectors should be areas of importance to policy-makers over the next half decade and their health have some priority as wealth creators.

A decision to leave the EU should not make much short term difference to commercial fl ights between the UK and mainland Europe but could lead to problems when re-negotiating air traffi c rights agreements with non-EU states.


UAVsUnmanned cargo aircraft

In recent years the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has snowballed with a huge increase in the number of UAVs and their applications. Recent media attention has focused on the increased use of UAVs in

military applications and also on the rise of small commercial and privately operated UAVs. However, one area not so much talked about but still under development is the introduction of larger unmanned aircraft. Over the past 50 years, increased automation of aircraft systems has resulted in the steady decrease in the number of fl ight crew with the removal of the navigator, fl ight engineer and the radio operator. Most large commercial aircraft are now down to a fl ight crew of two and there is now talk of single-pilot commercial jets. If this trend continues, then the next logical step will be

to complete the depopulating of the fl ight deck and have commercial aircraft with no pilots at all. However, before any such move was made, it would be necessary to ensure the public, regulators and other airspace users that such an aircraft would be safe to operate. As yet, there are no proposals to introduce unmanned passenger aircraft but there is research currently under way in developing unmanned cargo aircraft (UCA) designs, together with the technology and regulations required to ensure that such aircraft could be operated safely in commercial airspace. Such aircraft could offer considerable economic advantages in certain markets and could also test technology and operations which could potentially be applicable to future unmanned passenger aircraft.

Air freight

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As the use of UAVs expands to includefreight transport, what are the potential applications for a larger unmanned cargoaircraft? BILL READ reports on the issuesraised at the second Unmanned CargoAircraft Conference in The Netherlands.

A UCA ... WOULD BE IDEAL FOR THE TRANSPORT OF LIGHTER PAYLOADS OVER SHORTER DISTANCES WHERE SPEED AND WEIGHT ARE NOT SO IMPORTANT BUT WHERE FUEL AND PERSONNEL COSTS COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED

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In February the University of Twentes Platform Unmanned Cargo Aircraft (PUCA) in The Netherlands hosted a conference which looked at the latest developments in unmanned cargo aircraft (UCA). Speakers at the Second UCA Conference (the fi rst conference was held in 2014) looked at how such aircraft might be designed, operated, regulated and be economically successful. Hans Heerkens, Assistant Professor at the University of Twente (UT), explained how The European Advisory Council for Aviation Research and innovation in Europe (ACARE) has predicted that the most likely fi rst civil use of larger UAVs will be in freight transport. The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has also forecast that, within 40 years, 20-40% of air cargo will be transported

Raes April 2015 aerospace magazine 1504

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Transcript of Raes April 2015 aerospace magazine 1504