R2O and O2R between NSSL and SPC: The benefits of Collocation

Jack Kain, Steve Weiss, Mike Coniglio, Harold Brooks, Israel Jirak, and Adam Clark

Prior to the NWS re-organization in the mid-90s, the National Centers for severe weather Forecasting and Research

were about 400 miles apart…

Norman

Kansas City

The NSSL/SPC vision……as reflected in a job announcement …the [NSSL] scientist will spend 10% of his/her time doing

shift work with the SPC…

…the other 90% will be research in support of the SPC…

…this person would eventually work up to being a replacement Lead Forecaster…

…this will free up time for the SPC Lead Forecasters to do research and interact with NSSL…

Before there was a Hazardous Weather Testbed: The

NSSL/SPC Science Support Area ~1999

Daily Map Discussion

A hopeful beginning…

Finally, we wish to emphasize that this study was greatly facilitated by the collocation of the SPC and NSSL facilities. The first two authors were both present at the SPC winter weather forecast desk as the surprise snowstorm blossomed around 0000 UTC 4 February 1998. Their keen interest in this event was fueled by the excitement that it generated, the forecasting challenge that it presented, and the obvious need to understand it better. In their effort to explain the unfolding evolution of events, they both committed to an exchange of time, resources, and data that would have been much less likely to come together if not for the collocated facilities.

Melting Layer

2001 NSSL/SPC “Spring Program”

Real-time NWP efforts began around this time…

EtaKF (NSSL/SPC)Eta (operational)

Betts-Miller-Janjic (BMJ) convective parameterization

Kain-Fritsch (KF) convective parameterization

2nd Order Horizontal Diffusion 4th Order Horizontal Diffusion

Run at 00Z and 12Z daily

Output is…

• post-processed in same way as operational version (comparing apples and apples…)

• disseminated to SPC workstations and elsewhere

Consider the impact of parameterized shallow convection: 12 h forecasts for

BHM valid 00 UTC 12 May 2000

Opnl Eta

00Z Raob

Etakf

00Z Raob

Extraction of unique diagnostic fields tailored to SPC needs – from Eta model

ParameterizedUpdraft Mass Flux

Parameterized Updraft Source Layer

P(mb)

Successful transitions on this topic…

9

SREF

KF & BMJ Convective

Schemes

KF

Scheme

4 formal Publications

Tornadic Supercells

Isolated cells ahead of the main line

WRF Simulated 1 km AGL Reflectivity Observed Base Reflectivity

“The [simulated reflectivity field] provided very useful input regarding the mesoscale organization and character of storms…I used it to help delineate where/when watches would be required.” John Hart - SPC Day Shift Lead Forecaster

15 Nov 2005 tornado outbreak

Developing Model Capabilities: Simulated reflectivity

2 km AGL

5 km AGL

Convective Mode: Supercell DetectionBesides simulated reflectivity, need a quantitative tool for supercell detection

and strength in WRF forecasts

UH = Updraft Helicity

Observed Reflectivity (~2 h earlier)

UH ≥ 25m2 s-2

Using UH to identify mesocyclones…

Exploring the concept of using explicit storm attributes from high resolution models to

derive probabilistic forecasts of storm reports

“Surrogate” Severe Reports from an ensemble of 4-km WRF-model forecastsObserved Severe Weather Reports

530

45

15

“practically perfect” probabilistic forecast – Brooks, Kay, and Hart (1998)

Storm-Scale Ensemble of Opportunity (SSEO) (Jirak et al.)

April 27, 2011

Collaboration between researchers and practitioners can be difficult and strained

– and in many ways the interactions between NSSL and SPC have fallen

short of expectations…

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

SPC forecasters are doing great research and publishing on their own!

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

Through the leadership of Ariel Cohen, Rich Thompson, and others, SPC forecasters are educating OU/SOM students

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…NSSL Scientist Mike Coniglio is working forecast shifts for the SPC and doing great collaborative research

Courtesy Ariel Cohen

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

Recently retired SPC forecasters Dave Imy and Jack Hales forecasted for the multi-million dollar, NSF-funded PECAN experiment last summer

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

Adam Clark is running a realtime convection-allowing ensemble prediction system in collaboration with the SPC

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…The Hazardous Weather Testbed, with an operations paradigm based on early NSSL-SPC interactions, has become a model for R2O and O2R in NOAA – and much of this growth has occurred in the Experimental Warning Program

New HWT

Old “HWT””

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

Within the last 5 years NSSL has hired 2 NWS MICs in high-level management positions

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…Two major weather-related NOAA initiatives – Warn on Forecast and FACETs – have emerged from the collaborative activities in Norman

The collaboration between NSSL and SPC has not worked out quite like the

~1995 vision, but…

…the positive impacts of collocation have been tremendous, with many unanticipated benefits