R. JEROME HOLMAN, FSA, MAAA, CFA · Presentation Disclaimer Presentations are intended for...
Transcript of R. JEROME HOLMAN, FSA, MAAA, CFA · Presentation Disclaimer Presentations are intended for...
Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016
R. JEROME HOLMAN, FSA, MAAA, CFA
Chicago Actuarial AssociationMarch 26, 2019
Presentation Disclaimer
Presentations are intended for educational purposes only and do not replace independent professional judgment. Statements of fact and opinions expressed are those of the participants individually and, unless expressly stated to the contrary, are not the opinion or position of the Society of Actuaries or its committees. The Society of Actuaries does not endorse or approve, and assumes no responsibility for, the content, accuracy or completeness of the information presented.
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Is It Getting Better or Worse Out on the Roads?
• Answer the question by reviewing fatal motor vehicle accident (MVA) experience from 1999-2016 by various perspectives• Overall trend
• Riding status
• Age
• Gender
• Alcohol impairment
• Seasonality
Motor Vehicle Accidents 1999-2015
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0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
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Fata
l Acc
iden
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Polic
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epo
rted
No
n-F
atal
Acc
iden
ts
Injury Property Fatal
MVA Deaths 1999-2017*
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
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MV
A D
eath
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* 2017 reported experience included for reference but excluded in report
Attribution of Annual MVA Deaths
Average Annual Change* 1999-2005 2005-2011 2011-2016 1999-2016
Licensed Drivers 1.2% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%
Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
per Driver 0.6% -1.1% 0.6% 0.0%
Fatal Crashes per Million VMT -0.8% -4.2% 1.4% -1.4%
Fatalities per Crash -0.2% -0.3% 0.0% -0.2%
MVA Deaths 0.7% -4.8% 2.9% -0.6%
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* All averages in the table are determined geometrically. The average annual change in MVA Deaths within each period is the product of one plus each element’s growth rate minus one from the product of those factors, e.g. for 1999-2016 (1.010)*(1.000)*(.986)*(.998) - 1.000 = -0.006. Rounding may effect the calculation in other instances.
Change in MVA Deaths by Person Type
Average Annual Change* 1999-2005 2005-2011 2011-2016 1999-2016
Driver 1.4% -4.5% 2.5% -0.4%
Passenger -0.7% -7.6% 1.5% -2.6%
Pedestrian -0.2% -1.5% 6.1% 1.1%
Pedacyclist 0.7% -2.3% 4.3% 0.6%
Miscellaneous 1.7% -0.2% 4.4% 1.8%
All Types 0.7% -4.8% 2.9% -0.6%
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*All averages in the table are determined geometrically. The 1999-2016 annual change in
passenger deaths is derived as [(.9936)*(.9246)*(1.0155)](1/17) – 1 = -.026. Rounding may effect
the calculation in other instances.
Excess No Passengers to With Passengers MVA Fatal Accident Driver Involvement By Age Group
MVA Driver Death Rate by Age Group
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MVA Passenger Deaths by Age Group
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MVA Passenger Deaths by Driver vs. Passenger Age
1999 2016
• Passenger Deaths in 1999 were 10,279 vs. 6,595 in 2016.• 47% of reduced deaths from passengers within one age group of the driver and drivers under
age 30.• 17% of reduced deaths from passengers under age 16 with driver age 20 and over.
Non-Occupant MVA Deaths
1999 vs. 2016 Driver Mortality by Age and Gender
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10.0
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-84
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Dri
ver
Dea
ths
per
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0,0
00
Dri
vers
Age Group
Female 1999 Female 2016
Male 1999 Male 2016
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
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Mal
e to
Fem
ale
Dri
ver
Dea
th R
ate
Age Group
1999 2016
1999 Average 2016 Average
Alcohol Impaired (AI) Accident Driver Deaths
o Over 1999-2016 AI driver deaths decreased 1.2% while non-AI Driver deaths increased by 0.8%.
o AI driver deaths were 31.4% and 27.5% of all driver deaths in 1999 and 2016, respectively.
o 65% of AI driver deaths from 1999-2016 were one car accidents.
o 11% of drivers killed in AI related accidents were not alcohol impaired.
o 85% of AI driver deaths are male.
o Except for ages 16-19 percentage of AI driver deaths to all deaths declines by age for males and females.
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Perc
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I to
All
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AI A
ccid
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Rel
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Dri
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Dea
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AI Drivers Non-AI Drivers % AI Drivers
Seasonal Variation of MVA Driver Mortality Rates 1999-2016
75%80%85%90%95%
100%105%110%115%
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An
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Seasonal Moraltiy Ratio VMT Normalized Seasonal Mortality Ratio
Conclusions
While not studying specific auto features or safety programs, experience corroborates with other research on the benefits of• Auto safety features
• Seat belts, air bags, ABS, stability control and backup camera during this era
• Graduated driver licensing• Large decrease of age 16-24 driver death rates
X But behavior remains a significant problem• Alcohol impairment (and drug impairment)• Distracted driving
Resources
• U.S. Motor Vehicle Accident Deaths 1999-2016: Report and supporting Excel data tables
https://www.soa.org/research-reports/2018/us-motor-vehicle-deaths/
• NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2017 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview DOT HS 812 603
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/ViewPublication/812603
• NHTSA Traffic Safety Facts 2016 Fatal Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview DOT HS 812 456
https://crashstats.nhtsa.dot.gov/Api/Public/Publication/812456
• FARS Query Facility and Data Downloadshttps://www.nhtsa.gov/research-data/fatality-analysis-reporting-system-fars
• Contact info:• [email protected]
Change in MVA Driver Mortality Versus Change In Unemployment Rate
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
-20.0%-15.0%-10.0%
-5.0%0.0%5.0%
10.0%15.0%20.0%
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Mo
nth
Ch
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Un
emp
loym
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Rat
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Mo
nth
Ch
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Dri
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Mo
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Change in Driver Mortality Unemployment Rate Change