R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann Management of Controversial Technologies Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier...

R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann

Management of Controversial Technologies

Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier

Dipl. Ing. Andreas Biedermann

www.tim.ethz.ch


Financial costs of technical disasters are rising

OECD (2003): 35

Financial Costs of Natural Disasters (bn US$)

Financial Costs of Technological Disasters (bn US$)

24000e


AsbestosDelay of 50 years between cause and effect

Gee et al. (2001): 52

1989: EPA ban on most products

24003e


DDT: Banned forever?

1874 First synthesis of DDT (not recognized as insecticide)

1939 DDT recognized as insecticide

1948 P. H. Müller, Swiss chemist, Geigy AG. Nobel Prize: “for his discovery of the high efficiency DDT as a contact poison against several arthropods.”

1962 Rahel Carson (US), publishes Silent Spring: DDT = cancer: Public outcry

1970 Banned for agricultural uses in many countries

1972 Banned in US (virtually all uses)

2001 Stockholm convention (Dirty Dozen)

2004 Stockholm convention effective:Signed by 98 countries

2005 Still in use in tropical countries,but much less concentrated

Fighting malaria with DDT in Congo. © by Spiegel Magazine

24009e


When substitute available, industry reacts quickly

25878

TechnologyDominant Design?

LawBan?

Market penetration ofmercury technologyfor chlorine production

Many different

technologies

Dominant DesignMercury

Big accidents / late effectsMinamata, Iraq

Public PressureJapan, European Union

Substitutionnew: Membrane Technology

Niches

StrategyNew dominant design?

Phase out time?

Time

Uncertainty

Boutellier, Biedermann (2005)


Sometimes, regulation is fuzzy

EuroChlor (2004) and Short, P.L. (2001)

2010

2020

Mercury Phase-Out Commitment 1990

Mercury Phase-Out Commitment 2000

Chlorine Production in Europe

Diaphragm Mercury Membrane OthersTechnologies:

24011e


Some technologies can be improved without additional costs

Graphics: http://www.eurochlor.org/chlorine/reviews/2004/A809-02.htm

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

air

waste water

product

Grams mercury per ton of chlorineProcess: mercury

Late Phase-Out / No Phase Out

24013e


Scientific results depend on who pays!

Analysis:vom Saal (2005)

“Are low doses of Bisphenol A harmful?”

Estrogenic activity of Bisphenol A mentioned in 1936:21 years prior to first industrial application

Uncertainty

0

50

100

Number of studies

(1996-2005)

Public funding Industrialfunding h

arm

ful sa

fe

24014e


The regulator favors the precautionary principle

Genetically modified plants in Switzerland

Take action even if not “proven” Restrictions for GMOs in food

Use safety factors Distance between plants in field tests

As safe as possible Laboratory tests

Complete stop if possible Field applications banned

24018e


Fault liabilityIntention or negligence

Swiss Code of Obligations (Art. 41, 1911)

Causal liability EU: Liability for Defective Products (Art. 1, 1985)

Stringent causal liability (in general)No irregularity required

German Environmental Liability Act (§1 & 6, 1990)

Stringent causal liability (specific)Dangerous circumstances trigger liability.

Possible for GMOs contaminating bio-quality crops.

Application of civil-law liability standards EU proposal: Liability for biological diversity (2000)

Retroactive application of liability Tendency, especially in environmental liability

Liability gets ever more stringent

according to SwissRe (2001)

24035e


Decisions are taken in a complex environment

Controversial TechnologyMercury Cells

Technology Users

Chlorine Manufacturers

Alternative TechnologiesMembrane Cells, Diaphragm Cells

ProductChlorine

Product UsersPVC & CFC industry, Paper

industry, homes

RegulatorsEuropean Union, Japan, USA

AffectedSea abutters, population

Mercury Ban

Paris Convention

Sid

e-e

ffec

tsM

ina

ma

ta B

ay, Ira

q,

bio

accu

mu

latio

n, e

tc.

Bu

yin

g p

atte

rns

“ozo

ne

-frien

dly”

Re

jectio

n o

f Ch

lorin

e

Public

Technology Suppliers

Plant constructors

Mon

treal

Proto

col

Boutellier, Biedermann (2005)

24012e


Laws need time, technology speeds up, who closes the gap?

25878

Technology SpeedNumber of activities

Technical Innovations

Time

Late effects detection:Cause-effect know-how

Laws

PublicDiscussions Scientific

Political


Controversial Technologies: Today and tomorrow

25878

Phase-out decided Phase-out possible

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC)Aerosol cans: ozone depletion

Bisphenol APlastics: endocrine disruptor (?)

AsbestosBrake pads: cancer

Electromagnetic radiationMobiles: heating of brain (?)

Polychlorinated BiphenylsSealing: endocrine disruptors

PhthalatesFloor covering: cancer (?)

Mercury CellsChlorine: mercury in biosphere

Printer TonersLaser Printers: allergies (?)

Lead in ElectronicsPCs: lead in biosphere

AerosolsAir Freshener: allergies (?)


Phase-Out: Timing has to be chosen carefully

25878

TechnologyChlorine production with mercury

Accidents, late effectsMinamata, Iraq

Pressure to phase out

Early Change+ conformity with law+ (public perception)- cost (innovation)

Late Change+ more information available+ cost (mature technology)- public perception


Implications for the Management

25878

Be ready for surprises Public and political discussion Timeline not sure Impossible to identify all problems at market introduction

Keep reasonable options open Lock-in effect Technology acceptance can change very quickly No quick fixes

Be aware of major trends Change in the public perception Liability policies New measurement methods


Management of Controversial Technologies

Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier

Dipl. Ing. Andreas Biedermann

www.tim.ethz.ch

R. Boutellier, A. Biedermann Management of Controversial Technologies Prof. Dr. Roman Boutellier...

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