Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends/media/Files/E/Equifax-IR/...Quarterly US Consumer Credit...

Quarterly U.S. Consumer

Credit Trends

DATA AS OF

March 2019 Published June 18, 2018

© 2019 Equif ax Inc. All Rights Reserved

Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends

Data as of March 2019

Visit us at

www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends

This report and accompanying data files can be found at

https://investor.equifax.com/news-and-events/events-and-presentations

http://www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends













© 2019 Equif ax Inc. All Rights Reserved 3

Quarterly US Consumer Credit Trends Report

First Mortgage 4

Home Equity 11

Auto 21

Credit Card: Bankcard 27

Credit Card: Private Label 33

Consumer Finance 39

Student Loans 45

Notes 51

Contact information back cover

Table of Contents


US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: FIRST MORTGAGE

4


Outstanding Loans by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA

Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of March 2019.

First Mortgage

45

47

49

51

53

55

57

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


Loan Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA

6

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency

First Mortgage


*Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due.

Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure, excluding w rite-offs and REOs.


Loan Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA

Sources: Equifax Inc. Data are as of March 2019; Federal Housing Finance Agency (Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) data reported through March

2019), Refinance/purchase share from Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection(Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data). Due to lags in HMDA data

reporting, refinance/purchase share is available as of 2017 Q4. 2018-2019 refinance/purchase share are expected to release in later 2019.

First Mortgage

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

First Mortgage HARP Refinance First Mortgage NonHARP Refinance

First Mortgage Purchase * Total First Mortgage (2018-2019)


Loan Originations by Quarter Origination Balances in Billions; NSA

Sources: Equifax Inc. Data are as of March 2019; Refinance/purchase share from Bureau of Consumer Financial Protection(Home Mortgage Disclosure Act

(HMDA) data). Due to lags in HMDA data reporting, refinance/purchase share is available as of 2017 Q4. 2018-2019 refinance/purchase share are expected to

release in later 2019.

First Mortgage

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

First Mortgage Refinance First Mortgage Purchase *Total First Mortgage (2018-2019)


First Mortgage Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for First Mortgage Originations by Year (% Of Accounts)

9

First Mortgage


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539


Credit Risk at Origination by Select Deciles

$0

$50,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

760

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Median VantageScore 3.0 (L) 10th Percentile VantageScore 3.0 (L)

Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts (R)

10

Average Origination Balance

For Highest-risk Decile; NSA


*Median VantageScore 3.0 Credit Score(VS3): half of new ly originated accounts have an associated borrow er VS3 that is higher than the median score and

half have scores that are equal to or low er than this score.

10th Percentile VS3: 90 percent of new ly originated accounts have an associated borrow er VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent

have scores equal to or less than this score.

Average Origination Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance for all new ly opened accounts for w hich the account’s representative

borrow er’s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3.

Origination VantageScore® 3.0

Credit Score; NSA

First Mortgage


US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: HOME EQUITY

11



Home Equity

0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

27

30

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HE Loan

HELOC


*HELOCs are defined as home equity revolving lines of credit.

HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans


Delinquency Rates Percent Of Dollar Balances; NSA

13

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency

Home Equity: HELOC



Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due.



Loan Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA

14

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency

Home Equity: HE Loan


*HE Loans are defined as home equity installment loans.




Originations by Quarter Number Of Accounts In Thousands; NSA

Home Equity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HE Loan HELOC





Originations by Quarter Origination Credit Limits for HELOCs & Balances for HE Installment Loans in $Billions; NSA

Home Equity

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

HE Loan HELOC





HELOC Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for HELOC Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

17

Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of March 2019 .

Home Equity: HELOC

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539


Home Equity Installment Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Home Equity Loan Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

18



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

$160,000

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

760

800

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



19

Average Origination Credit Limit


Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as March 2019.





Average Origination Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average credit limit for all new ly opened accounts for w hich the account’s

representative borrow er’s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th percentile VS3.


Credit Score; NSA

Home Equity: HELOC



$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

760

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



20











Credit Score; NSA



US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: AUTO LOANS AND LEASES

21




50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Auto Loans & Leases


Delinquency Rates Percent of Dollar Balances; NSA

23

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%

2.0%

2.5%

3.0%

3.5%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency

Auto Loans & Leases


*Early delinquency is defined as all loans 30-days past due.

Serious delinquency includes all loans 60-or-more-days past due, excluding w rite-offs.


Originations by Quarter Number of Accounts in Millions; NSA

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Auto Loans & Leases



Auto Loans and Leases Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Auto Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

25


Auto Loans & Leases

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$7,500

$15,000

$22,500

$30,000

$37,500

$45,000

$52,500

460

500

540

580

620

660

700

740

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



26








Average Origination Loan Balance for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average loan balance for all new ly opened accounts for w hich the account’s


Auto Loans & Leases


Credit Score; NSA


US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: BANKCARDS

27



275

300

325

350

375

400

425

450

475

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Credit Cards: Bankcard


*Bankcards are defined as general purpose credit cards.



29

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency








5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





Bankcard Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Bankcard Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

31



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

$2,100

$2,400

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

760

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



32











Credit Score; NSA



US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: PRIVATE LABEL CREDIT CARDS

33



200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360

380

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Credit Cards: Private Label


*Private label credit cards are issued for use at specif ic retailers. Drop in 2Q18 due to inactive account closures by lenders.



35

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency



*Private label credit cards are issued for use at specif ic retailers.





4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019





Private Label Credit Card Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Private Label Card Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

37



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$300

$600

$900

$1,200

$1,500

$1,800

$2,100

$2,400

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

760

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



38











Credit Score; NSA



US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: CONSUMER FINANCE

39



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened w ith a sales f inancing company , bank, or a personal f inance company.

Consumer Finance



41

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Early Delinquency

Serious Delinquency


*Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened w ith a sales f inancing company , bank, or a personal f inance company. .



Consumer Finance



0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened w ith a sales f inancing company , bank, or a personal f inance company.

Consumer Finance


Consumer Finance Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Consumer Finance Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

43

Consumer Finance


*Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened w ith a sales f inancing company, bank, or a personal f inance company.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$400

$800

$1,200

$1,600

$2,000

$2,400

$2,800

$3,200

$3,600

360

400

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

720

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



44











Credit Score; NSA

Consumer Finance


US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: STUDENT LOANS

45



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


*Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of f inancing post-secondary educational study

Student Loans



47

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Serious Delinquency


*Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of f inancing post-secondary educational study

Serious delinquency includes all loans 90-or-more-days past due or in bankruptcy, excluding w rite-offs. Due to U.S. Department of Education servicing

guidelines student loan delinquency is rarely reported prior to 90 days past due.

Student Loans



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of March 2019


Student Loans


Student Loan Origination Risk Year-to-date VantageScore® 3.0 Distribution for Student Loan Originations by Year (% of Accounts)

49


Student Loans

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

No Score 780-High 740-779 700-739 660-699 620-659 580-619 540-579 1-539



$0

$2,000

$4,000

$6,000

$8,000

$10,000

$12,000

$14,000

$16,000

360

400

440

480

520

560

600

640

680

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019



50

Source: Equifax Inc. Data are as of December 2017.







Student Loans




Credit Score; NSA


US CONSUMER CREDIT TRENDS: NOTES

51


U.S. Consumer Credit Trends Data reported covers the period 1st Quarter 2008 through 4th Quarter 2018 and are not

seasonally adjusted.

Due to changes in data reported to Equifax, previously reported data may change.

Data are sourced from Equifax’s U.S. Consumer Credit database of over 220 million

consumers.

Equifax Credit Trends is the primary source for the data in this report; for more information on this database please

visit www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends

These data are population level – not a sample.

Jointly held accounts are represented by a randomly selected borrower on the account. Tradelines are only counted

once.

Exclusions for data quality are applied, such as timely reporting of the establishment of the trade (≤12 months);

completeness of the tradeline record including type, credit limit, balance outstanding and status; and other similar

filters (e.g., exclude if borrower’s death reported).

Data on new tradeline originations are subject to revision for up to 12 months due to

delays in lenders and servicers reporting to Equifax.

First Mortgage tradelines may be most affected by delays as servicing rights as well as the loans themselves are

frequently sold after origination.

With the exception of first mortgage and home equity installment loans, at least 99% of expected new tradelines will

have been recorded for the quarter preceding the most recent in this report (e.g., 4Q data in the 1Q report).

Data on the credit-score characteristics of newly originated tradelines are reported as-is and may be subject to

significant revision as additional loans originated in the quarter are reported to Equifax.

52

Notes





U.S. Consumer Credit Trends

Notes

Definitions: Account Type

Auto – Total: all accounts from banks and finance companies for loans or leases on light vehicles.

Credit Cards – Bankcard: general purpose credit cards

Credit Cards – Private Label: credit cards issued for use at particular retailers. Sometimes called retail cards or

store cards.

First Mortgage: loans with first lien position on a residential property.

Home Equity Installment Loan: loans in second lien position on a residential property. These loans are amortizing

for the full term of the loan and do not have a draw feature.

Home Equity Revolving Lines of Credit (HELOCs): loans usually in second lien position on a residential property.

These loans commonly require only interest payments during the draw period and then are recast into amortizing

payments at the end of the draw. During the draw period the borrower may take advances from the line of credit.

Consumer Finance: installment or revolving loans opened with a sales financing company or a personal finance

company. These are typically unsecured finance trades.

Student Loan: loan funded for the purpose of financing post-secondary educational study

Deferred Student Loan: a student loan on which no payments are required as long as the loan is in deferral status.

These loans are not used to calculate delinquency rates.

Non-deferred Student Loan: a student loan in active repayment status on which the borrower is expected to make

timely interest and principal payments. These loans are used for calculating delinquency rates.


U.S. Consumer Trends Definitions: Other

Closed Accounts: accounts that have a reported status of closed positive, in bankruptcy or severe derogatory.

Accounts with these status categories are included in the month in which the status is first reported and are

excluded from the database thereafter.

Credit Limit: the maximum amount the borrower can access on the account. On installment accounts this is the

original loan amount. On revolving accounts this is also known as the credit line or high credit.

Severe Delinquency: for auto loans or leases, credit cards and consumer finance, accounts that are 60 days or

more past due or in collections. For first mortgage, home equity loans and lines of credit, and student loans,

accounts that are 90 days or more past due, in bankruptcy, or in foreclosure (excl. student loans).

Severe Delinquency Rate: calculated as the sum of balances on accounts that are severely delinquent divided by

the sum of balances outstanding in the period. Balances outstanding are the sum of balances on loans that are

current, in any stage of delinquency or collections, in foreclosure or that were closed within the referenced month.

Subprime: a loan characterized by a combination of factors that make it not-prime-credit quality, meaning that these

loans will typically have higher default rates and higher loss rates on average than prime-quality loans from the

same vintage. Within this report these are defined as loans extended to borrowers who at the time the loan was

originated had a VantageScore® 3.0 credit score (VS3) below 620.

Median VantageScore: half of newly originated accounts in that quarter have an associated borrower VS3 that is

higher than the median score and half have scores that are equal to or lower than this score.

10th Percentile VantageScore: 90 percent of newly originated accounts in that quarter have an associated borrower

VS3 that is higher than the 10th percentile score and 10 percent have scores equal to or less than this score.

Average Origination Loan Balance or Credit Limit for Highest-Risk Decile Accounts: the average balance/limit for all

newly opened accounts for which the account’s representative borrower’s origination VS3 is at or below the 10th

percentile VantageScore 3.0 credit score.

Total Mortgage Originations: originations from first mortgage, home equity installment and home equity lines of

credit should be summed to obtain total mortgage originations.

54

Notes


U.S. Consumer Trends Trademarks & Other Information

VantageScore

VantageScore is a trademark of VantageScore Solutions, LLC

More information can be found at www.vantagescore.com

Equifax

Equifax and the Equifax logo are registered trademarks of Equifax Inc., Atlanta, GA

More information on Credit Trends data can be found at www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends

The Excel file containing all the data for the charts in this report can be found along with this report PDF at


The information presented herein is for general informational use only. Neither Equifax nor any of its affiliates make any express or

implied representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein. Equifax and its af filiates expressly disclaim any and all liability which may be based in whole or in part on such information, errors therein or omissions

therefrom. This information is qualified in its entirety by the footnotes, assumptions and other qualifying statements contai ned herein. This information should not be relied upon in making any financial decision or otherwise. Such information is presented as of the date

hereof only and is subject to change without notice. Equifax undertakes no responsibility to update or supplement the informa tion contained herein.

55

Notes

http://www.vantagescore.com/














Quarterly U.S. Consumer Credit Trends

Visit us online today at www.equifax.com/business/credit-trends

This report is available at


CONTACTS

Trevor Burns SVP, Investor Relations

404.885.8453

[email protected]

Peter Oburu VP, USIS Data Leader

470.373.1012

[email protected]

Lily Ling Presale Analytics Lead

678-209-3538

[email protected]

Chris Walker Product Manager, Credit Trends

770.740.4772

[email protected]

Wyatt Jefferies Sr. Director, Public Relations

404.617.8197

[email protected]













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