QUARTERLY CLOSED END FUND REVIEW OUTLOOK · 1 EXD EV Tx-Adv Bnd & Opt Stgs Fd National Muni Bond...

QUARTERLY CLOSED‐ENDFUND REVIEW & OUTLOOK

John Cole Scott, CFSPortfolio Manager, Executive Vice President

Closed‐End Fund Advisors, Inc.

4th Quarter 2013 Review & 1st Quarter 2014 Outlook

Intermediate/Advanced CEF Skill Level

January 8, 2014

Closed‐End Fund Advisors is a Registered Investment Advisory Firm Specializing in Closed‐End Fund Research, Trading and Management Founded in 1989.

DisclaimerImportant: The information in this presentation is not for general circulation and should not be considered an offer, or solicitation, to deal in any of the mentioned funds. The information is provided on a general basis for information purposes only, and is not to be relied on as advice, as it does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific investor.

Any research or analysis used to derive, or in relation to, the information herein has been procured by Closed‐End Fund Advisors (“CEFA”) for its own use, and may have been acted on for its own purpose. The information herein, including any opinions or forecasts have been obtained from or is based on sources believed by CEFA to be reliable, but CEFA does not warrant the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of the same, and expressly disclaims liability for any errors or omissions. As such, any person acting upon or in reliance of these materials does so entirely at his or her own risk. Any projections or other forward‐looking statements regarding future events or performance of countries, markets or companies are not necessarily indicative of, and may differ from, actual events or results. No warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted by CEFA or its affiliates, for any loss, arising directly or indirectly, as a result of any action or omission made in reliance of any information, opinion or projection made in this presentation.

The information herein shall not be disclosed, used or disseminated, in whole or part, and shall not be reproduced, copied or made available to others without CEFA expressed written permission. CEFA reserves the right to make changes and corrections to the information, including any opinions or forecasts expressed herein at any time, without notice.

2www.CEFadvisors.com

What Is CEF Advisors?


• Investment Management, Research & Data• Independent, Fee Only & Family Owned • “Scott Letter: Closed‐End Fund Report”• Discretionary Portfolio Management• Daily CEF News Alert System• Weekly “CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe” Report • Monthly “Best Ideas” CEF List, Hourly & Project‐Based CEF Consulting Work

• Founder: “CEF Network” on LinkedIN (1128 members)

Current Closed‐End FundOptions & Assets


• 41 US Equity Funds• 122 (+1) Specialty Equity Funds• 63 (+1) Non US Equity Funds

226 Total Equity Funds

• 163 (‐5) Taxable Bond Funds• 105 National Municipal Bond • 104 State Specific Municipal

Bond 372 Total Bond Funds

Source: CEF Universe Data

4Q 2013 Ended with 598* US listed Closed‐End Funds

Source: CEFA’s CEF Universe Report 12/31/13 (cefuniverse.com)

Various CEF Overview Data for Major Groups


Source: CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe 12/31/13 (www.cefuniverse.com)

Closed‐End Current Discounts


Source: CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe (www.cefuniverse.com)

US Equity ‐8.76

Non US Equity ‐8.33

Special Equity ‐6.95

Taxable Bond ‐6.38Nat Muni Bond ‐6.36

State Muni Bond ‐7.71

‐10.00

‐9.00

‐8.00

‐7.00

‐6.00

‐5.00

‐4.00

‐3.00

Average CE

F Discou

nt

Avg CEF Discount % as of December 31, 2013

Closed‐End Discount Trends

7www.CEFadvisors.comSource: CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe (www.cefuniverse.com)

4Q 2013 Ended with an average CEF Discount of ‐7.09%

‐15 %

‐12 %

‐9 %

‐6 %

‐3 %

0 %

3 %

4‐May‐12 4‐Aug‐12 4‐Nov‐12 4‐Feb‐13 4‐May‐13 4‐Aug‐13 4‐Nov‐13

All CEFs ‐ Average CEF Discount04‐May‐12 ‐ 31‐Dec‐13

All CEFs

Closed‐End Discount Trends



‐20 %

‐15 %

‐10 %

‐5 %

0 %

5 %

10 %

1‐Jan‐13 1‐Apr‐13 1‐Jul‐13 1‐Oct‐13

Main Peer Groups ‐ Average CEF Discount01‐Jan‐13 ‐ 31‐Dec‐13

US Equity Non US Equity Special Equity Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond State Muni Bond

Closed‐End Funds: By Yield(Total Market Price Distribution Yield)

9.0%

21.4%

37.5%

22.1%

8.0%

Yield Under 5%

Yield 5%-6.5%

Yield 6.5%-8%

Yield 8% -10%

Yield Over 10%

Note: 598 closed-end funds; data as of 12/31/13 , Source: CEFA’s Closed-End Fund Universe (www.cefuniverse.com)

9

Relative UNII for CEF Bond Funds



‐60 %

‐40 %

‐20 %

0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %


Main Peer Groups - Relative UNII04-May-12 - 31-Dec-13

Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond

Return of Capital (90 Day) For CEFs



0.0 %

5.0 %

10.0 %

15.0 %

20.0 %

25.0 %

30.0 %

35.0 %

40.0 %

45.0 %

50.0 %


Main Peer Groups - Historical ROC04-May-12 - 31-Dec-13

US Equity Non US Equity Special Equity Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond State Muni Bond

Destructive RoC



Fund Grouping # Funds with Destructive RoC

% Funds with Destructive RoC

Average Destructive RoC %

US Equity Funds 1 2% 47%

Non‐US Equity Funds 5 8% 43%

Specialty Equity Funds 14 11% 33%

Equity CEF 20 9% 36%

Taxable Bond Funds 26 16% 19%

National Muni Bond Funds 4 6% 26%

State Muni Bond Funds 1 1% 11%

Bond CEF 31 8% 19%

Average CEF 51 9% 26%*Whitepaper

Top 10 Funds with Highest Destructive RoC %



Rank Ticker Name Classification Destructive RoC %

1 EXD EV Tx-Adv Bnd & Opt Stgs Fd National Muni Bond Funds 96%

2 BCX BR Res & Com Stgy Tr Specialty Equity Funds 87%

3 BCF BR Real Ast Eq Tr Specialty Equity Funds 84%

4 IHD ING Emrg Mkt Hi Div Eq Fd Non U.S. Equity Funds 67%

5 GNT GAMCO NtrRes Gd & Incm Tr Specialty Equity Funds 65%

6 JGT Nuv Divr Crncy Opp Fd Taxable Bond Funds 57%

7 MIN MFS Imd Incm Tr Taxable Bond Funds 54%

8 MGF MFS Govt Mkt Incm Tr Taxable Bond Funds 53%

9 IGR CBRE Clr Glbl Rel-Est Incm Fd Specialty Equity Funds 51%

10 CFP Cornerstone Progressive Rtn Fd U.S. Equity Funds 47%

Earnings Coverage RatioFor Closed‐End Funds



0 %

20 %

40 %

60 %

80 %

100 %

120 %

1‐Jun‐12 1‐Sep‐12 1‐Dec‐12 1‐Mar‐13 1‐Jun‐13 1‐Sep‐13 1‐Dec‐13

All Groups - Earnings Coverage Ratio01-Jun-12 - 31-Dec-13

All CEFs All Equity All Bond US Equity Non US Equity

Special Equity Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond State Muni Bond

Income Only YieldFor Closed‐End Funds



1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

6 %

7 %

8 %

9 %

10 %


Main Peer Groups ‐ Income ‐ Historical Dividend04‐May‐12 ‐ 31‐Dec‐13

US Equity Non US Equity Special Equity Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond

3Q & 4Q 2013 Closed‐End FundDividend Increases vs. Decreases


Source: Fund Press Releases

Dividend Announcement

Number of Announcements

Average Percentage Change

Dividend Maintains 3012 (90%) N/A

Dividend Increases 135 (4%) +12%

Dividend Decreases 200 (6%) ‐8%

Under 5% Increase 83(61%) +1.9%

Over 5% Increase 62 (39%) +23.5%

Under 5% Decrease 92 (46%) ‐2.49%

Over 5% Decrease 108 (54%) ‐13 %

Recent Closed‐End FundDividend Increases vs. Decreases



0

20

40

60

80

100

120

U.S. Equity Funds Non U.S. Equity Funds Specialty Equity Funds Taxable Bond Funds National Muni BondFunds

Major CEF Groups: Number of dividend decreases / increasesJune 1, 2013 to December 31, 2013

Div Decreases

Div Increases

Closed‐End Funds: By Average Daily Liquidity (thousands)

2.0%

7.2%

17.7%

20.7%32.1%

14.9%

4.3% 1.0%

under $100

$100 - $250

$250 - $500

$500 - $1,000

$1,000 - $2,500

$2,500 - $5,000

$5,000 - $10,000

$10,000 +

Note: 598 closed-end funds; data as of 12/31/13 , Source: CEFA’s Closed-End Fund Universe (www.cefuniverse.com)

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CEF Volume Trends


Source: CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe Report

Fund Grouping Avg Vol30day

Avg Vol90day

Volume Trend

US Equity Funds111,204 101,741 10%

Non‐US Equity Funds87,923 74,776 19%

Specialty Equity Funds176,688 144,483 18%

Ave Equity CEF 140,064 117,366 17%

Taxable Bond Funds167,628 137,225 21%

National Muni Bond Funds172,086 120,560 42%

State Muni Bond Funds55,431 38,481 43%

Ave Bond CEF 137,519 104,842 33%

Average CEF 138,481 109,557 27%Data as of December 31, 2013

CEF Press Release Summary(2510 CEF PRs in 4Q)



Announcement Type 4Q 2013 Full Year 2013

4Q 2012 Avg per Q since 2012

Investment Policy Change 6 30 12 14

Leverage Amount Change 26 70 0 15

Name Change 2 13 14 7

Rights Issue 8 27 3 6

Tender Offer 12 63 19 21

Director Change 1 35 0 7

Fund Manager Change 3 18 15 9

Secondary Offering 0 7 2 9

Distribution Policy Change 4 12 0 2

Leverage Type Change 10 41 0 7

4Q & 2013 Closed‐End FundNAV / Market Price Performance



Fund Grouping 4Q NAV

4Q Mkt Pr

2013 NAV

2013 Mkt Pr

US Equity Funds 7% 8.1% 22.2% 25.0%

Non‐US Equity Funds 3.7% 5.0% 9.0% 8.7%

Specialty Equity Funds 3.5% 2.8% 12.3% 8.4%

Ave Equity CEF 4.2% 4.4% 13.2% 11.6%

Taxable Bond Funds 2.8% 2.1% 5.3% ‐0.9%

National Muni Bond Funds 0.5% ‐0.4% ‐6.4% ‐13.8%

State Muni Bond Funds 0.6% ‐0.8% ‐6.5% ‐15.2%

Ave Bond CEF 1.5% 0.6% ‐1.4% ‐8.7%

Average CEF 2.5% 2% 4.1% ‐1.1%


Source: AST Group Activist Report: – www.cefinsight.com

Month Filed

Filing/Type

Closed‐End Fund Investor Notes

Dec 13D/A Zweig Total Return Fund (ZTR) Bulldog 4.98%

Nov 13D/A Western Asset Inflation Management (IMF)

Bulldog Inc (10.83%)

Nov 13D/A Zweig Total Return Fund (ZTR) Karpus Inc (5.97%)

Oct Rights Cornerstone Total Return Fund (CLM)

Public 107% of NAV per share

Oct 13D/A Special Opportunities Fund (SPE)

Karpus Dec (31.56%)

Closed‐End Fund Activist Update


CEF Institutions & Activist Holdings


Activist Holdings Trends‐previous 6 months‐

Increase: 209 fundsDecrease: 75 funds

Closed‐End Fund Historical IPOs


Source: Fund Press Releases, CEF Association

2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003

Number of IPOs 24 23 19 17 13 2 40 21 47 50 48

Average Assets

In $ millions$599 $517 $316 $451 $200 $131 $690 $506 $452 $462 $591

Total New CEF IPO

Assets in $ Billions

$14.4 $11.9 $6.0 $7.7 $2.6 $0.3 $27.6 $10.6 $21.2 $23.1 $28.4

10 Year Average: 26 Funds per year, $432M Ave Fund, $12.5 Billion Per Year

4Q 2013 IPO Details


Royce Global Value Fund (RGT)IPOed on October 18, 2013

IPO Price: $8.88 IPO Assets: $99.5MPrice as of 12/31/13: $8.89 Disc/Prm as of 12/31/13 : ‐10.92%

Ares Multi‐Strategy Credit Fund (ARMF)IPOed on October 29, 2013

IPO Price: $25.00 IPO Assets: $130MPrice as of 12/31/13: $21.17 Disc/Prm as of 12/31/13 : ‐11.35%

Goldman Sachs MLP Income Opps (GMZ)IPOed on November 26, 2013

IPO Price: $20.00 IPO Assets: $826.3MPrice as of 12/31/13: $20.80 Disc/Prm as of 12/31/13 : 5.58%


IPOs during 1Q – 3Q 2013Current Discount / Premium


Data as of December 31, 2013 Source: CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe Report

Closed‐End FundNAV – Market Price Correlation



Fund Grouping Correlation 30day

Correlation 90day

Correlation Trend

US Equity Funds76.0% 76.1% 0%

Non‐US Equity Funds80.2% 85.9% ‐6%

Specialty Equity Funds56.7% 70.8% ‐15%

Ave Equity CEF 66.8% 75.9% ‐10%

Taxable Bond Funds15.1% 43.6% ‐29%

National Muni Bond Funds‐38.5% 37.6% ‐76%

State Muni Bond Funds‐32.6% 42.5% ‐75%

Ave Bond CEF ‐13.5% 41.6% ‐55%

Average CEF 16.8% 54.5% ‐38%Data as of December 31, 2013

90 Day NAV/Price CorrelationFor Closed‐End Funds



0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

22‐Jun‐12 22‐Sep‐12 22‐Dec‐12 22‐Mar‐13 22‐Jun‐13 22‐Sep‐13 22‐Dec‐13

All Groups - 90 Day NAV/Price Correlation22-Jun-12 - 31-Dec-13

All CEFs All Equity All Bond US Equity Non US Equity

Special Equity Taxable Bond Nat Muni Bond State Muni Bond

Closed‐End FundMarket Price Volatility vs. NAV Volatility (1 Year)


Source: December 31, 2013 ‐ CEFA’s Closed‐End Fund Universe Report

0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

U.S. Equity Funds

Non U.S. Equity Funds

Specialty Equity Funds

Taxable Bond Funds

National Muni Bond

Single State Muni Bond

Price Volatility NAV Volatility

New Data for CEF UniverseDuring 4Q 2013


• Destructive RoC%• Comp Data Columns• 30 Day Correlation• Correlation Trend• QTD Price & NAV TR• 6 month Price & NAV TR• Earnings Date• Leverage Types / Leverage Subtypes• Comp 6Mo NAV TR*We are open to ideas on what to include

CEFA’s Outlook for 1Q 2014


• Bond Funds vs. Equity Funds Why? • Dividend Cuts Continue ‐ CEFs Benefit From Fixed Capital• Muni Bonds Still Reasonably Priced • We like REIT, Senior Loan, High Yield, Convertible Bond, US Equity (ok), International / Global Equity (Leveraged), MLP, Cov Call CEFs (well screened)

• Watch UNII Trend, RoC % (Destructive)/ Trends and Earnings Coverage

• Sustainable Dividends, Leveraged Adjusted NAV Yield• NAV Performance vs. Peers ‐ Swap CEFs As Needed• Relative Discount and Z‐Stat, Relative Discount Range

What You Asked Us to CoverIn Webinar Registration


• Discount trends (ranges) relative to historical norms / outlook for this coming quarter• Are current discounts vs. avg. discounts as relevant as they used to be? / Z‐stat• Why is investing in CEFs with premiums considered a bad investment?• Best Income funds w/ stable earnings (2)• Muni Fund outlook (4) / New York Muni fund outlook• Analyzing UNII, especially negative UNII• Tax loss selling / Price volatility• How will rising interest rates effect leveraged funds, covered – call funds, etc. (4)• IPO trends (2014) and opportunities / Activist trends• Opportunities with MLP funds and the tax implications• Difference between good and bad RoC• What CEFs distributions contained destructive RoC in 2013?• Opportunities for safety? How do you protect downside? • How do EXG & FAV look vs. in Dec.?• Rights offerings/ underwriters• New CEF Universe Data• How to build a portfolio of CEFs/ new products in the pipeline/ buy and hold opportunities

Closed‐End Fund Deaths


Source: CEF Press Releases

Period Average Number of Funds

2013 3 fund

2012 6 funds

2011 5 funds

2008‐2011 8.5 per year

2004‐2007 11 per year

2000‐2003 12.5 per year

1995 – 1999 11.6 per year

1990 ‐ 1994 4.2 per year

1990 ‐ 2013 8.1 per year

Causes: Open‐ending, liquidation & conversionSource: Fund Press Releases

Closed‐End Fund Deaths


Source: Fund Press ReleasesCauses: Open‐ending, liquidation & conversionSource: Fund Press Releases

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CEF Funds Open‐Ended, Liquidated or Converted to ETF

Converted to ETF

Liquidated

Open‐ended

Closed‐End Fund Mergers


Source: Fund Press ReleasesReasons to Merge: 1. Reduce expense ratio 2. Increase liquidity 3. Reduce bid/ask spread 4. Improve cost of future leverage

Avg. – 15.8 per year

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Num

ber o

f Closed ‐E

nd Fun

dsClosed‐End Funds Merged into Other Closed‐End Funds (December 2013)

CEF Advisors Links


• (*NEW*) Whitepaper: “How to Analyze Destructive Return of Capital for Closed‐End Funds”https://cefadvisors.com/Download/20130930‐HowtoAnalyzeDestructiveReturnOfCapitalForCEFs.pdf

• CEFA Website: www.CEFadvisors.com• CEFA’s Blog: www.CEF‐Blog.com

• Published Articles• Benzinga: http://www.benzinga.com/author/john‐cole‐scott• Seeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/author/john‐cole‐scott/articles• WealthManagement.com: http://wealthmanagement.com/author/john‐scott

• Weekly CEF Data (14 Day Trial) & Daily News Alerts (10 Day Trial): Best Ides List www.CEFUniverse.com

• CEF Universe Data Definitions: http://www.cefadvisors.com/Download/CEFUDataDefinitions.pdf

• CEFA’s Form ADV Part 2A and 2Bhttp://www.cefadvisors.com/Download/ADV‐II‐Form.pdf

37

For Your InformationFree CEF Resources

**NEW** CEFAnalyzer LLC: http://CEFanalyzer.comThe Closed‐End Fund Association:www.Closed‐EndFunds.comCEF Connect (Nuveen Sponsored): www.CEFconnect.comMorningtar's CEF Site:http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/CEF‐Closed‐End‐Funds.aspxInvestment Company Institute: http://www.ici.org/research#fact_booksCEFNetwork (Pristine Advisers): www.CEFnetwork.comCEF Insight (Activist Info from AST Fund Solutions): www.CEFinsight.comCapital Link's CEF Portal: http://cef.capitallink.com/Morningstar Discussion Board (77K+ posts since 1998):http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSocialize/forums/100000006.aspxThe CEF Network on LinkedIN (1130+ Members): www.CEF‐Network.comSeeking Alpha: http://seekingalpha.com/articles?filters=closed‐end‐fundsJeff Margolin at First Trust: http://www.ftportfolios.com/Retail/Commentary/CEFCommentaryMain.aspx

More Useful Links at: www.cefadvisors.com/investRes.html

38

Principal’s BiographiesGeorge Cole ScottSr. Portfolio Manager, President of Closed‐End Fund Advisors

George’s investment career started in 1969 when he joined a regional brokerage firm after a career as ajournalist. In 1976 he helped a client buy control of a deeply discounted CEF which became Bergstrom Capital(AMEX: BEM). He served on the board of the fund for 27 years. In 1987 he founded The Scott Letter: Closed‐EndFund Report which was a well regarded print newsletter ending the publication when he became a shareholder ofCEF Advisors in 1996. In 1991 he co‐authored the only hardback book on CEFs with a finance professor. He is agraduate of The University of Washington, holds the FINRA 66 License and is a long time member of The CFASociety and CFA Virginia. He has been widely published and interviewed. He has also worked with various closed‐end funds on a consulting basis. George is one of a few CEF specialists with more than four decades of CEFexpertise.

John Cole Scott, CFSPortfolio Manager, Executive VP of Closed‐End Fund Advisors

John has worked at the firm since 2001. He sits on the firm’s investment committee and holds the FINRA 66License and the Certified Fund Specialist designation (CFS). He is a graduate of The College of William and Maryand has been quoted widely in the financial press and presented at conferences and for investment groups onmore than 25 occasions. In 2008 John founded CEFA's Closed‐End Fund Universe, a comprehensive weekly dataservice covering 125 data points for all US listed closed‐end funds. He also founded and manages The CEFNetwork group on LinkedIn and is editor of the firm’s blog. John is a board member of The Richmond Associationfor Business Economics (RABE), and serves on the Investment Committee for The New York State Society of TheCincinnati.

QUESTIONS?


Closed‐End Fund Advisors, Inc.7204 Glen Forest Drive, Suite #105Richmond, Virginia 23226 U.S.A.

Toll Free: (800) 356‐3508 – Local: (804) 288‐2482www.CEFAdvisors.com ‐ [email protected]

Sign up or view archive for The Scott Letter: Closed‐End Fund Report: www.ScottLetter.comRegister for more webinars / view on demand archive: www.cefadvisors.com/webinars.html

QUARTERLY CLOSED END FUND REVIEW OUTLOOK · 1 EXD EV Tx-Adv Bnd & Opt Stgs Fd National Muni Bond...

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