QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: A BRIEF...
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QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: A BRIEF INTRODUCTION Williamsburg, VA April 4, 2018 Xuan Nguyen, Steven R. Walk, PE Governor’s School for Science and Technology Hampton, VA 1
Transcript of QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING: A BRIEF...
QUANTITATIVE TECHNOLOGY FORECASTING:
A BRIEF INTRODUCTIONWilliamsburg, VA
April 4, 2018
Xuan Nguyen, Steven R. Walk, PEGovernor’s School for Science and Technology
Hampton, VA
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OUTLINE
● Introduce the logistic diffusion model used in QTF, one of many natural patterns shaping technology change
● Demonstrate its applications in modeling historical trajectories of technological and social change, with samples from the energy industry
● Show samples of our current Senior Mentorship student research results
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REFERENCE: THE BELL CURVE
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BELL CURVE SAMPLES
Employee satisfaction survey resultsat random companies.
Under the Boone and Crockett
scoring system
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LOGISTIC GROWTH: A “BELL CURVE” IN TIME
● Often, and not commonly known, the emergence, diffusion, and saturation of a new technology follows a logistic pattern (an s-curve shape overtime
● 3 parameter mathematical model
● Extremely effective and efficient in its outcomes and applications in technological and social change
● Illuminates new insights into what defines technology, how it evolves, and the interplay of human needs and technology adoption and performance
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LOGISTIC GROWTH IN TECHNOLOGY
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EXPONENTIAL VS. LOGISTIC GROWTH
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LOGISTIC EQUATION IN ITS APPLIED FORM
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FISHER-PRY TRANSFORM
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THE LOGISTIC MODEL IN QTF RESEARCH
● Logistic Growth - Emergence, diffusion, and saturation of technology follows a logistics pattern over time
● Substitution - New technology displaces old technology logistically
● Precursor - Change in one technology is a precursor to change in another technology
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SUBSTITUTION
New technology displaces old technology logistically
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PRECURSORS
● Change in one technology is a precursor to change in another technology
○ Parallel diffusion curves○ Can indicate a fixed delay or continuous coupling
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PRECURSOR
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ENERGY SAMPLES
The Hydrogen Future
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ENERGY SAMPLES
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ENERGY SAMPLES
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SAMPLES OF OUR RESEARCH
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SAMPLES OF OUR RESEARCH
Electric vehicle charging station technology is approaching maturity and should be fully developed in less than a decade.
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QTF: A BRIEF INTRODUCTION
Your questions.
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