Quantitative overview and analysis of afforestation in … · Quantitative overview and analysis of...
Transcript of Quantitative overview and analysis of afforestation in … · Quantitative overview and analysis of...
Giuliana Zanchi and Marcus Lindner
Quantitative overview and analysis of afforestation in Europe
Vilnius 24-26 October 2006
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OUTLINE
• The project context of the analysis
• Available data sources in Europe
• Limitations
• European trends
• Conclusions
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April 2004 - March 2007Sixth Framework Programme
How can two of the most important international environmental agreements which the EU has ratified be adequately reflected in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP)?
The project will contribute by:• Assessing current policies• Identifying the most desirable changes in
agricultural and forest practice• Identifying policy measures needed to deliver
changes in practice
In order to comply with KP and CBD, major changes will be required in the EU farming and forestry policies and practices
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0
50
100
150
200
250
1990 2000 2005
1000
ha
EU25 EU27 Rest of Europe
Forest area - FRA 2005
80
100
120
140
160
180
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991
1000
ha
Forests, Woodland Agricultural Area
Land area of EU15 (FAOSTAT)
How much is due to afforestation / natural forest expansion?
Forest area change:general increase all over Europe
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• Overview of available data sources
• Critical analysis of data
• Identification of European trends
MEACAP Report on afforestation activities in Europe:
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Data sources
FRA 2005
TBFRA2000
Corine Land Cover
MCPFE-Report State of Europe’s
Forests 2003
State of the World’s forest 2003 (from
FRA 2000)
The development of European
Forest Resources, 1950 to 2000
EFFE final report
Incentives to expand forest cover:
a framework for Canada
Evaluation and Report on
Regulation 2080/92
Newfor Symposium
UNFCCC GHG inventoriesQuestionnaire to
national authorities
Main data sources
DerivedOthers
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1. Different reference periods
2. Different definition of forest/afforestation
3. Interpolation/extrapolation between subsequent National Forest Inventories
4. Partial information (e.g. limited to a single policy action)
LIMITATIONS OF DATA SOURCES
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AfforestationForest area change
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Austria
Belgium
Denmark
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Ireland
Italy
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
UK
Reference period for forest area change and afforestation (EU-15)
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Average forest area change (EU25)(different reference periods)
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Aus
tria
Bel
gium
Den
mar
kFi
nlan
dFr
ance
Ger
man
yG
reec
eIre
land
Italy
Luxe
mbo
urg
Net
herla
nds
Por
tuga
lS
pain
Sw
eden UK
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
iaLi
thua
nia
Mal
taP
olan
dS
lova
kia
Slo
veni
a
1000
ha
year
-1
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Average afforestation rate (EU25)(different reference periods)
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200A
ustri
aB
elgi
umD
enm
ark
Finl
and
Fran
ceG
erm
any
Gre
ece
Irela
ndIta
lyLu
xem
bour
gN
ethe
rland
sP
ortu
gal
Spa
inS
wed
en UK
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
ep.
Est
onia
Hun
gary
Latv
iaLi
thua
nia
Mal
taP
olan
dS
lova
kia
Slo
veni
a
1000
ha
year
-1
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1. Forest area change (UNECE/FAO)
• Most significant changes after Second World war until 1970s (afforestation activities and land abandonment)
Development of forest area in Europe by regions (1950-1996)
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2. Afforestation comparison to forest area change
- Afforestation = 100% of forest area changeonly plantations
- Afforestation < 100 % of forest area changenatural forest expansion+ plantations
- Afforestation > 100 % of forest area change (or neg.) plantations + deforestation processes
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Land abandonment
Land abandonment and afforestation
Afforestation
Deforestation(forest area decreasing)Afforestation + Deforestation(forest area increasing)
No significant change
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ECCP Report (WG on Forest Sinks)
Assumes that the pace of afforestation will be the same than in the 1990s = 340.000 ha/yr
EU15 in 2008-201214 Mt CO2 eq. : annual potential sequestration from ”afforestation” (plantation+ succession)
AFFOREST project: + a potential of 3.8 Mha in the 10 accession countries
... In the future
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Forecasted/reported afforestation programs:
1. Mediterranean countries:- Spain: 3.8 Mha of afforestation in marginal
lands over 30 years
- Italy: intention to include natural succession for KP (potential of 3 Mt CO2 eq.)
- Portugal: from the 1990s to 2005 constant afforestation rate reported (26000 ha/yr since 1990)
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3. New EU members:
- Poland: intensive afforestation program (500 000 ha in 2001-2020)
- Hungary: recently intensified afforestation (from 26000 ha/yr in the ’90s to 40000 ha/yr in 2000-2004; 20000 ha/yr planned for 2000-2030)
2. Northern European countries:
- UK, Ireland: still implementing afforestation
- Fenno-scandia: forest area only slightly increasing after the ’70s
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4. European Union:
Still promoting afforestation activities
• European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EARFD)
• 2006 EU Forest Action Plan
For KP and BDC purposes
Will the potential be fulfilled?
E.g.: Denmark: the aim was 4-5000 ha/yr, but less than 2000 ha/yr afforested in 1990-2004
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Conclusions
• Forest data sources: several inconsistencies
• Afforestation partially responsible for forest area change better information are needed
• Afforestation: from production to environmental role in the EU policy
• Attention to deforestation processes (carbon debits)
• Programs not always fulfilled