QIS Capital Conference October 2005 Exploring Fundamental Analysis Liquidity Ratios by Grant...
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Transcript of QIS Capital Conference October 2005 Exploring Fundamental Analysis Liquidity Ratios by Grant...
QIS Capital Conference October 2005
Exploring Fundamental Analysis
Liquidity Ratiosby Grant Robertson, B.B.A.
Key Principles of Fundamental Analysis
- no strict benchmarks – fundamental analysis is relative measure and acceptable benchmarks may vary from industry to industry, stage of growth, etc.
- while some fundamental analysis measures are indeed objective, most still require subjective evaluation (it is merely one more tool that investors have at their disposal – it will not make sound decisions for us).
- fundamental analysis is not only concerned with current state, but changes in key measures over time
Working Capital
Working Capital = Current Assets - Current Liabilities
The current assets and current liabilities figures can be found on the company's balance sheet.
Current assets include: Cash Short-term deposits Liquid marketable securities Accounts receivable Inventory Prepaid expenses Other assets which are expected to be or could easily be
liquidated into cash within a period of one year or less.
Working Capital Cont.
Current liabilities include: Short-term bank debt (demand loan or line of credit) Accounts payable Deposits received from customers for future delivery of
products or services Taxes and payroll remittances payable to the
government The portion of the company's long-term loans (principal)
that will be repaid during the next 12 months.
Working capital essentially measures the company's ability to discharge all of its short-term obligations (those coming due within the next 12 months) without relying on operating cash flow and external financing.
Working Capital Cont.
Commonly measured by 2 key ratios:
Current Ratio = Current Assets / Current Liabilities
Ratio of 2.0 of higher preferred in most industries, although 1.0 for a profitable, growing small-cap is often sufficient to give comfort as to current financial liquidity where receivables and inventory turnover is stable or improving.
Quick Ratio (Acid Test Ratio) =(Current Assets – Inventory) / Current Liabilities
Ratio of at least 1.0 preferred in most industries.
Working Capital Cont.Value to Investors / Analysts: Measure of funds available to grow business without using operating
cash flow or external financing Can help identify companies in need of additional financing so
investor / analyst can take into account potential dilution from future share issuances, interest costs on financing, etc.
Can be early indicator of financial insolvency, receivership, or bankruptcy, or alternatively an indicator of excess cash reserves which may indicate possibility of special dividend, hidden cash value, takeover candidate etc.
Limitations: Is only a snapshot of financial position as of a specific date, therefore,
investor must consider changes in financing and operational activities since date of the balance sheet (private placements / offerings)
Does not take into account debt service costs (interest on debt) and contingent liabilities, other debt covenants, etc.
GAAP classification of certain demand loans (Oil & Gas sector)
Receivables Turnover
In simple terms, this ratio measures how quickly the company can expect to get paid when it provides credit to its customers.
Annual or Annualized Sales / Accounts Receivable
Can also be expressed as # days (easier to interpret)
365 days / Receivables Turnover Ratio
Benchmarks:Less than 30 days –very good, 30-45 days good,
45-65 days fair, 65-90 poor, over 90 days very poor
Receivables Turnover
Uses: reflects effectiveness of credit granting and collection
policies can be used to identify impending bad debts and write-
offs can reveal industry slowdown that may affect future
business as customers extend credit as they begin to struggle with the industry slowdown
Limitations: must factor into account seasonality issues with respect
to company’s revenue stream can give misleading analysis results on smaller
companies with “lumpy” revenue streams, especially those with unusually large contract revenues
Receivables Turnover
Best analysis value of this ratio comes from examining CHANGES in this ratio over time and compared to industry comparables
Is the turnover of receivables slowing or becoming more rapid? A progressive slowing on the receivables turnover rate on a quarter-over-quarter basis is generally a cause for alarm. At the very least, it should raise questions for further due diligence.
Can also be compared to payables turnover ratio (Cost of Goods Sold/Accounts Payable). An increase in accounts payable turnover and a slowdown in receivables turnover can quickly eat away at working capital and cash reserves.
Inventory Turnover
In simple terms, this ratio measures how long, on average, inventory must “sit on the shelves” before it is sold to a customer.
Annual or Annualized Cost of Goods Sold /
Inventory
Can also be expressed as # days (easier to interpret)
365 days / Inventory Turnover Ratio
Inventory Turnover
Uses: can be used to identify obsolete inventory accumulation,
reduction in product demand, new competition, over-production issues etc. which can hint as to future demand for product, possibility of write-offs, etc.
Limitations: must factor into account seasonality issues with respect
to company’s business and timing of inventory purchases (ex. build-up of retail inventories prior to Christmas season, or increase in inventory in anticipation of shipments for a major contract, etc.).
inventory turnover depends greatly on the nature of the business being evaluated (fresh produce vs. jet aircraft)
Best value comes from analyzing changes over time.
Inventory Turnover
General risks of holding too much inventory:
unnecessary use of capital that could be employed elsewhere
increased warehousing cost, including insurance changes in prices (value), styles, or consumer
acceptance
General risks of holding too little inventory:
can't meet sales demand; miss out on important sales opportunities
unable to deliver product on time to meet customer requirements could result in customer switching to a more reliable supplier
Summary
it only takes a few minutes to do these basic calculations and they can reveal a great deal about a company’s financial position
focus on examining trends in changes in these ratios on a quarter by quarter basis
it you find a concerning trend in a ratio, call management and ASK QUESTIONS – and more importantly, scrutinize the answers you get.
there are a series of three articles discussing working capital, receivables turnover and inventory turnover on the QIS Capital website in the educational articles section
Example: (PIH) Working Capital: F05: $11,199,272 – 4,524,629 = $6,674,643 F04: $11,070,042 – 3,288,500 = $7,781,542
Current Ratio: F05: $11,199,272 / 4,524,629 = 2.5 F04: $11,070,042 / 3,288,500 = 3.4
Quick (Acid Test) Ratio: F05: ($11,199,272 – 4,437,900) / 4,524,629 = 1.5 F04: ($11,070,042 – 4,409,961) / 3,288,500 = 2.0
Example: (PIH) Receivables Turnover:
F05: $30,064,600 / 5,104,276 = 5.9 or 62 days
F04: $26,440,172 / 4,182,210 = 6.3 or 57 days
Inventory Turnover:
F05: $23,761,683 / 4,437,900 = 5.4 or 68 days
F04: $20,767,735 / 4,409,961 = 4.7 or 77 days