Q3 2016 RESULTS TELECONFERENCE - Torm · Q3 2016 Results HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016...

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15 November 2016 Q3 2016 RESULTS TELECONFERENCE

Transcript of Q3 2016 RESULTS TELECONFERENCE - Torm · Q3 2016 Results HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016...

Page 1: Q3 2016 RESULTS TELECONFERENCE - Torm · Q3 2016 Results HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016 • EBITDA of USD 40m (Q1-Q3 2016: USD 166m) and Profit before tax of USD 2m (Q1-Q3

1 5 No ve m b e r 2 0 1 6

Q3 2016 RESULTS

TELECONFERENCE

Page 2: Q3 2016 RESULTS TELECONFERENCE - Torm · Q3 2016 Results HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016 • EBITDA of USD 40m (Q1-Q3 2016: USD 166m) and Profit before tax of USD 2m (Q1-Q3

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SAFE HARBOR STATEMENT

Matters discussed in this release may constitute forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements reflect our current views with respect to future events and financial performance and may include statements concerning plans, objectives, goals, strategies, future events or performance, and underlying assumptions and statements other than statements of historical facts. The words “believe,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “estimate,” “forecast,” “project,” “plan,” “potential,” “may,” “should,” “expect,” “pending” and similar expressions generally identify forward-looking statements.

The forward-looking statements in this release are based upon various assumptions, many of which are based, in turn, upon further assumptions, including without limitation, management’s examination of historical operating trends, data contained in our records and other data available from third parties. Although the Company believes that these assumptions were reasonable when made, because these assumptions are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies that are difficult or impossible to predict and are beyond our control, the Company cannot guarantee that it will achieve or accomplish these expectations, beliefs or projections.

Important factors that, in our view, could cause actual results to differ materially from those discussed in the forward- looking statements include the strength of the world economy and currencies, changes in charter hire rates and vessel values, changes in demand for “ton miles” of oil carried by oil tankers, the effect of changes in OPEC’s petroleum production levels and worldwide oil consumption and storage, changes in demand that may affect attitudes of time charterers to scheduled and unscheduled dry-docking, changes in TORM’s operating expenses, including bunker prices, dry-docking and insurance costs, changes in the regulation of shipping operations, including requirements for double hull tankers or actions taken by regulatory authorities, potential liability from pending or future litigation, domestic and international political conditions, potential disruption of shipping routes due to accidents, political events or acts by terrorists.

In light of these risks and uncertainties, you should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements contained in this release because they are statements about events that are not certain to occur as described or at all. These forward-looking statements are not guarantees of our future performance, and actual results and future developments may vary materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements.

Except to the extent required by applicable law or regulation, the Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events.

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Jacob Meldgaard

▪ Executive Director in TORM plc

▪ CEO of TORM A/S since April 2010

▪ Previously Executive Vice President of the Danish shipping company NORDEN

▪ Prior to that he held various positions with J. Lauritzen and A.P. Møller-Mærsk

▪ More than 20 years of shipping experience

TODAYS PRESENTERS

Christian Søgaard-Christensen

▪ CFO of TORM A/S

▪ Previously Head of Corporate Support at TORM A/S

▪ Prior to that with McKinsey & Co

▪ 10+ years in transportation

Christian Mens

▪ Vice President, Head of IR, Communications and Treasury

▪ Previously Head of Funding & Capital Structure at DONG Energy

▪ Prior to that with Deloitte Financial Advisory Services

▪ 10+ years of Treasury experience

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Product tanker

market

Corporate

events

• TORM distributed USD 25m in dividends in September 2016 and intends to distribute 25 to 50% of Net Income going forward

• Since May 2016, TORM has conducted share repurchases for a total of USD 22m from the squeeze-out process (USD 19m), and general

market purchases (USD 3m)

Sales &

Purchase

• Product tanker ordering remained very limited in the third quarter of 2016. By the end of October 2016, the order book stands at 13% of the

total fleet, the lowest since 2012

• Second-hand values have continued to be under pressure due to limited available financing and a high number of sale candidates

• The value of TORM’s product tanker fleet has decreased by USD 73m (~5%) in the third quarter of 2016

Q3 2016

Results

HIGHLIGHTS FOR THE THIRD QUARTER OF 2016

• EBITDA of USD 40m (Q1-Q3 2016: USD 166m) and Profit before tax of USD 2m (Q1-Q3 2016: USD 48m)

• RoIC of 2.4% (Q1-Q3 2016: 6.3%) and Earnings per share of USD 0.0 or DKK 0.2 (Q1-Q3 2016: USD 0.8 or DKK 5.1)

• Net Asset Value estimated at USD 798m as of 30 September, corresponding to a NAV/share of USD 12.8 or DKK 85.5

• For the full-year 2016, TORM has specified its guidance to:

‒ EBITDA in the range of USD 185 – 205m

‒ Profit before tax in the range of USD 30 – 50m

2016

guidance

• As expected, the third quarter was challenging but profitable. TORM achieved product tanker freight rates across segments of USD/day

~14,400, which is a decrease of USD/day ~3,000 compared to the previous quarter

• Gasoline and diesel stocks in the main markets are approaching five-year averages, as inventory drawdowns have continued in the third

quarter. Although this bodes well for the coming period, destocking has been a negative factor for the product tanker market in the third

quarter

• Another negative factor in the third quarter, was the lack of long-haul trades from West to East, which mainly was due to maintenance at Far

East Asian petrochemical facilities and the usage of substitution products such as LPG

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PRODUCT TANKER FREIGHT RATES SOFTENED DURING Q3

Source: Clarksons. Spot earnings: LR2: TC1 Ras Tanura-> Chiba, LR1: TC5 Ras Tanura-> Chiba and MR: average basket of Rotterdam->NY, Bombay->Chiba, Mina Al Ahmadi->Rotterdam, Amsterdam->Lome,

Houston->Rio de Janeiro, Singapore->Sidney

FREIGHT RATES IN ‘000 USD/DAY

West

• Global destocking of refined oil products kept freight rates at lower levels

compared to previous quarters

• Naphtha arbitrage trade from West to East continued to decline,

negatively impacting the LR market

• West African imports declined on economic and political issues

• Atlantic trade flows declined from Q2 but generally remained at healthy

levels compared to last year

• A temporary outage of the Colonial pipeline in September and early

November boosted MR earnings until the pipeline capacity was restored

East

• An increase in the use of liquefied petroleum gas, as a substitution for

naphtha in the Far East petrochemical sector, had a negative impact on

the LR market

• The penetration of newbuilt VLCCs and Suezmax tankers into traditional

LR2 routes weighed negatively on product tanker earnings

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DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS FOR PRODUCT TANKERS -INVENTORIES

Sources: Reuters, EIA, TORM Research

• The fundamental long term outlook remains positive with the

oil demand increasing and the ton-mile is positively impacted

by the dislocation of refinery capacity from Europe and the

Pacific (Japan) to the Middle East and Asia

• Global product inventories are still at high levels, although

especially gasoline stockpiles in the main oil consuming

regions have started to draw down and move closer to their

historical levels

US EAST COAST GASOLINE INVENTORIES

Million bbl Million bbl

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DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS FOR PRODUCT TANKERS –ASIAN NAPHTHA AND LPG PRICES

Sources: Reuters, EIA, TORM Research

• Strengthening LPG prices vis-à-vis naphtha and lower

expected maintenance at Asian naphtha crackers incentivize

the Asian petrochemical sector to use more naphtha as a

feedstock

• Refinery maintenance in the Middle East towards the end of

the year and improved naphtha arbitrage economics, may

potentially lead to higher naphtha flows from West to Asia

• Over medium/longer-term, petrochemical capacity additions

in the Middle East and India will limit naphtha export volumes

from the region and potentially lead to increasing West to

Asia naphtha flows

ASIAN NAPHTHA AND LPG PRICES

USD/ton

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NIGERIAN CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

• Economic and political issues in West Africa have continued

to weigh on imports to the region and have negatively

influenced both the MR and LR markets

• Low oil revenue in Nigeria, as a consequence of low oil prices

and oil production currently approximately 30% below the

2015 average level, has led to significantly lower imports of

clean petroleum products months

DEMAND FUNDAMENTALS FOR PRODUCT TANKERS –

WEST AFRICA

Million

b/d

Source: JODI

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Unfixed days

2017 2018

27,498

4,015

17,520

2,5553,408

25,696

3,914

16,743

2,5002,539

Q4 2016

5,680

907

3,851

583339

HandyMRLR1LR2

Illustrative change in cash flow generation potential for the TORM fleet

∆ Average TCE/day Q4 2016 2017 2018

USD 2,000 11.4 51.4 55.0

USD 1,000 5.7 25.7 27.5

USD (1,000) (5.7) (25.7) (27.5)

USD (2,000) (11.4) (51.4) (55.0)

USDm

# of days

Of total earning days 77% 91%

TORM HAS SIGNIFICANT OPERATING LEVERAGE IN THE

PRODUCT TANKER MARKET

93%

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Notes:

• Peer group is based on Ardmore (split by ECO and ECO-modified), d’Amico (composite of MR and Handy), Frontline 2012, BW (Q1-Q2 2015), Norden, Teekay Tankers and

Scorpio, OSG

USD/day

PEER COMPARISON SHOWS THAT TORM HAS CONTINUED TO PERFORM COMMERCIALLY DESPITE AN OLDER FLEET

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PRO FORMA OPEX HAS SHOWN A FLAT TREND

6,000

5,500

6,500

7,500

8,000

9,000

7,000

8,500

5,000

Q3 15Q2 15 Q3 16Q2 16Q1 16

USD/operating day

Q4 15

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TORM operates on a fully integrated commercial and

technical platformTORM has trimmed administration expenses significantly

Admin. expenses (quarterly avg. in USDm)

• TORM’s operational platform handles all commercial and

technical operation

• The integrated business model provides TORM with the highest

possible trading flexibility and earning power

• TORM manages

‒ ~80 vessels commercially

‒ ~75 vessels technically

• TORM has a global reach with offices in Denmark, India, the

Philippines, Singapore, the UK and the US

• Average admin cost per earning day for Q1-Q3 2016 of

USD/day ~1,500

• Outsourced technical and commercial management would

affect other line items of the P&L

TORM HAS A FULLY INTEGRATED BUSINESS MODEL AND ADMIN EXPENSES ARE TRENDING SIGNIFICANTLY DOWN

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24

2015*

2014

2013

2012 -53%

Q1-Q3 2016

2011

2010

2009

2008

* Pro forma figures for 2015 presented as though the Restructuring occurred as of 1 January 2015 and include the combined TORM and Njord fleet

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TORM has, in order to allow for dividend

payments, terminated the cash sweep

mechanism under the term facility and

begun paying fixed amortizations from Q3

2016.

Ample headroom under our attractive

covenant package:

Minimum liquidity: USD 75m*

Minimum book equity ratio: 25%

(adjusted for market value of vessels)

* Of which USD 20m must be cash or cash equivalent

689 3289

72135

57

Hereafter

304

2020

repayment

2019

repayment

2018

repayment

2017

repayment

ROY 2016

repayment

Debt as of

30 Sep 2016

1588662

10

Total201820172016

7577

Available

debt facility

Cash position

CAPEX commitments Available liquidity

CAPEX and liquidity as of 30 June 2016 (USDm)

• TORM is well-positioned to service

future CAPEX and debt commitments

• Strong operational cash flows expected

in 2016

Scheduled debt repayments (USDm)

100% 5% 13% 10% 20% 8% 44%

TORM HAS A FAVOURABLE FINANCING PROFILE AND STRONG LIQUIDITY POSITION

Financing of LR2

Newbuildings

and new DSF

financing

Total available

liquidity

297

152145

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TORM HAS DISTRIBUTED A TOTAL OF USD 47M TO SHAREHOLDERS FOLLOWING THE SEPTEMBER DIVIDEND

2016 distribution to shareholders (USDm)

• In connection with the Corporate Restructuring, TORM plc has made

accretive share repurchases for an amount of USD 19m covering 2.4% of

the outstanding TORM A/S shares

• During the third quarter of 2016, TORM plc has repurchased own shares

on Nasdaq Copenhagen for a total consideration of USD 2m, at a

significant discount to NAV. TORM may from time to time continue to

conduct limited share purchase in the market

• On 15 September, TORM plc distributed a USD 25m dividend payment

• The USD 25m in dividend corresponds to a dividend per share of

USD 0.40 or DKK 2.70*

• During 2016, TORM has distributed a total of USD 47m to shareholders, in

addition to any further purchase in the market, corresponding to a yield of

8%*Total distributionSeptember

dividend

319

Market purchaseRepurchase

from Corporate

Reorganization

25

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Potential further distributions

TORM’s distribution policy from 2017

• 25 to 50% of Net Income

• Semi-annual distribution

• Dividend and/or share repurchase

• Policy reviewed periodically

* Based on share price as of 30 September and a USD/DKK fx rate of 6.7

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EBITDA

(USDm)

Profit before

tax (USDm)

Earnings per

Share (USD)

2016 full-year result USD/day 1,000

freight rate change

185 – 205 +/- 5.7

30 – 50 +/- 5.7

+/- 11.4

+/- 11.4

+/- 0.1

FORECASTED EBITDA IN THE RANGE OF USD 185M TO USD 205M FOR FY2016

With 5,680 unfixed earning days as of 30 September 2016, TORM’s financial result is highly exposed to

freight rate fluctuations.

USD/day 2,000

freight rate change

0.5 – 0.8

Earnings per

Share* (DKK)+/- 0.63.1 – 5.3

* Earnings per Share in DKK is calculated assuming an USD/DKK fx rate of 6.7 and 62.1m shares

+/- 0.2

+/- 1.2

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