Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted...

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Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation October 28, 2016

Transcript of Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted...

Page 1: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Q3 2016Earnings PresentationOctober 28, 2016

Page 2: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Forward-Looking Statements & Non-IFRS Financial Information

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Notices

• All financial references are expressed in US$ unless otherwise noted.

• This presentation contains forward-looking statements and estimates.

• Actual company results could differ materially from a conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information.

• Certain material factors or assumptions were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• Additional information can be found in the Company’s annual information form, annual and quarterly MD&A, and on Norbord’s website (www.norbord.com) about the material factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from the conclusion, forecast or projection in the forward-looking information, and the material factors or assumptions that were applied in drawing a conclusion or making a forecast or projection as reflected in the forward-looking information.

• During the course of this presentation, certain non-IFRS financial information will be presented. Definitions and reconciliation of terms can be found in the Company’s annual and quarterly MD&A.

Page 3: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights

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• Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015

• Adjusted EBITDA of $114 million, a more than threefold increase over Q3 2015

• Merger synergies target of $45 million (cumulative, annualized) now fully captured

• North Central average benchmark OSB price up 48% year-over-year

• North American manufacturing costs decreased 3% year-to-date

• Declared CAD $0.10/share quarterly dividend payable on December 21, 2016

• Reached agreement with LP to exchange ownership of Val-d’Or, Quebec mill for Chambord, Quebec

Page 4: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

US Housing Starts

4

Source: US Department of Commerce, except where otherwise noted

September YTD data: housing starts up 4% and single family starts up 9% YoY

(in millions)

(1) Based on US housing economist forecasts.

(1)

0.61

0.78

0.931.01

1.11

~1.20

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F

Page 5: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

North American Benchmark OSB Prices

5

US

$/M

sf-7

/16

Source: Random Lengths

204

242

226

264

301

176

221215

245256

158

204

191

242

265

100

150

200

250

300

350

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016

North Central

South East

Western Canada

Spread SE vs NC 28 21 11 19 45

Spread WC vs NC 46 38 35 22 36

Q3 2016

Page 6: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

European Indicative OSB Prices(1)

6

€/m

3

(1) European indicative average OSB price represents the gross delivered price to the largest continental market.

220226 230

237 235

0

50

100

150

200

250

Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016Q3 2016

Page 7: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Financial Summary

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(1) Represents Canadian combined federal and provincial statutory rate.(2) Basic and diluted Adjusted EPS are the same except diluted Adjusted EPS for Q3 2016 is $0.67 and for the 9 months 2016 is $1.39.

(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q3 Q2 Q3 9 mos 9 mos

2016 2016 2015 2016 2015

Sales $ 453 $ 447 $ 378 $ 1,284 $ 1,094

Adjusted EBITDA

North America 106 85 22 244 44

Europe 10 11 11 31 28Unallocated (2) (2) (3) (6) (7)

Total 114 94 30 269 65

Earnings (loss) $ 55 $ 44 $ (9) $ 122 $ (69)

Adjusted for:Merger transaction costs - - - - 8Severance costs related to merger - - - - 2Costs to achieve merger synergies 4 2 - 7 2Costs related to High Level fire - 1 - 1 -

Costs on early debt extinguishment - - - - 25Foreign exchange loss on Ainsworth Notes - - - - 28

Gain on derivative financial instrument on Ainsworth Notes - - - - (4)

Reported income tax expense (recovery) 19 10 3 32 (33)

Adjusted pre-tax earnings (loss) 78 57 (6) 162 (41)

Income tax (expense) recovery at statutory rate(1) (20) (15) 2 (42) 11

Adjusted earnings (loss) 58 42 (4) 120 (30)

Adjusted EPS, basic(2) 0.68 0.49 (0.05) 1.40 (0.36)

Page 8: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Adjusted EBITDA Variance

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(US $ millions)

Q3 2016 Q3 2016 9 mos 2016vs. vs. vs.

Q2 2016 Q3 2015 9 mos 2015

Adjusted EBITDA – current period $ 114 $ 114 $ 269

Adjusted EBITDA – comparative period 94 30 65

Variance 20 84 204

Mill nets(1) 23 87 169

Volume(2) (5) (1) 17

Key input prices(3) (3) 5 19

Key input usage(3) - 1 10

Mill profit share and bonus - (3) (7)

Other operating costs and foreign exchange(4) 5 (5) (4)

Total $ 20 $ 84 $ 204

(1) The mill nets variance represents the estimated impact of change in realized pricing across all products. Mill nets are calculated as sales (net of outbound freight costs) divided by shipment volume.

(2) The volume variance represents the impact of shipment volume changes across all products.(3) The key inputs include wood fibre, resin, wax and energy.(4) The other operating costs and foreign exchange category covers all remaining variances including labour and benefits, and maintenance.

Page 9: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Liquidity and Capital Resources

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(US $ millions, except per share information)

Q3 2016

Q2 2016

Q3 2015

9 mos2016

9 mos2015

Cash provided by (used for) operating activities $ 97 $ 83 $ 23 $ 183 $ (32)

Cash provided by (used for) operating activities per share 1.13 0.97 0.27 2.14 (0.38)

Operating working capital 156 163 145

Investment in property, plant and equipment & intangible assets

29 23 15 63 43

• 2016 regular capex budget is $75 million

• Excludes 2016 estimated capex of $45 million on $135 million Inverness project

Page 10: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Balance Sheet

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(US $ millions, unless otherwise noted)

BankCovenant

Sep 24,

2016

Jun 25,

2016

Dec 31,

2015

Sep 26,

2015

Long-term debt, principal value $ 755 $ 755 $ 755 $ 755

Add: Other long-term debt(1) - - 30 44

Less: Cash (74) (12) (9) (2)

Net debt 681 743 776 797

Less: Other long-term debt(1) - - (30) (44)

Add: Letters of credit 24 8 5 5

Net debt for financial covenant purposes 705 751 751 758

Tangible net worth Min. $500(2) 848 799 724 722

Net debt to capitalization, book basis Max. 65% 45% 48% 51% 51%

Liquidity of $420 million = $74 million in cash + $221 million in unused credit lines+ $125 million undrawn A/R securitization

(1) Drawings under A/R securitization program (carved out of net debt for financial covenant purposes).

(2) TNW reset to $500 million from $450 million when bank lines renewed in June 2016.

Page 11: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Appendices

Page 12: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

An

nu

al A

vera

ge N

C P

rice

US$

per

Msf

7/1

6"

OSB Prices Strong Over the Cycle

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Appendices

Historical North Central Benchmark OSB Price

Source: Random Lengths

15-year average

Q1 163 175 423 364 285 145 137 154 212 198 203 417 219 193 226

Q2 159 215 443 297 238 156 179 146 295 173 235 347 219 193 264

Q3 159 381 351 303 181 177 201 178 180 184 313 252 216 204 301

Q4 156 401 264 317 166 165 170 172 191 190 332 245 216 242

Average 159 293 369 320 217 161 172 163 219 186 271 315 218 209

Page 13: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Forecast OSB Pricing – North Central 7/16”

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Appendices

Norbord does not provide guidance regarding its expectations of future OSB prices. The following is a sample of price forecasts by analysts as at October 26, 2016. It is not exhaustive.

Annual Average North Central

Benchmark OSB Price US$ per Msf 7/16”

Analyst 2016F 2017F

Scotia Capital 258 270

CIBC 264 280

Vertical Research Partners 265 300

TD Securities 266 295

BMO 268 286

RBC Capital Markets 270 300

Raymond James 275 300

Average $267 $290

Page 14: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

North American Capacity Restarted to Meet Growing Demand

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Appendices

39 Mills in Operation

8 Mills Indefinitely Curtailed

North American OSB Installed Capacity:

Norbord Mill

6 Mills (Re)started in 2013

Source: Company documents and other public filings as of September 2016

Page 15: Q3 2016 Earnings Presentation - Norbord...Q3 2016 Financial and Operational Highlights 3 •Adjusted earnings of $0.67 per diluted share, a $0.72 improvement over Q3 2015 •Adjusted

Financial Sensitivities

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Appendices

Exposure Change

Adjusted EBITDA Impact (1)

(US$ millions)

North American OSB $10 per Msf-7/16” + $58

European OSB €10 per 000 m3 + $8

Canadian dollar (2) $0.01 per C$ + $3

Pound sterling £0.01 per € < $1

(1) Assumes operation at full stated capacity levels (including the indefinitely curtailed Huguley, Alabama and Val-d’Or, Quebec mills).Direct exposures only; before the impact of any cash flow currency hedges.Approximate operating loss carry-forwards for tax purposes (gross) as at Dec. 31, 2015 – US $186 million, Canada C$483 million, Belgium €33 million.

(2) Operating exposures only (excludes dividends on common shares).