Q2 CORPORATE PRESENTATION July 2021 - Cenovus Energy · 2021. 7. 29. · Sunrise & Tucker •...
Transcript of Q2 CORPORATE PRESENTATION July 2021 - Cenovus Energy · 2021. 7. 29. · Sunrise & Tucker •...
Q2 CORPORATE PRESENTATION
July 2021
2
CENOVUS AT A GLANCETSX, NYSE | CVE
2021E production• Oil Sands• Conventional• Offshore
770 MBOE/d570 Mbbls/d135 MBOE/d70 MBOE/d
Upgrading and refining capacity
660 Mbbls/d
2020 proved & probable reserves
Reserves life index
8.4 BBOE
30+ yearsNote: Market capitalization as at July 28, 2021. Values are approximate. Expected production based onJuly 28, 2021 guidance midpoints. Refining capacity represents net capacity to Cenovus. See Advisory.
Market capitalization $21 billion
3
WHY CENOVUSINTEGRATED ENERGY LEADER POSITIONED TO DELIVER VALUE FOR ALL STAKEHOLDERS
Note: 1 - GHG emissions intensity reduction reflects change in Oil Sands from 2004 to 2019. 2 - Subject to Board approval. See Advisory.
Market diversification &
integrationResilient balance
sheetFree funds flow
focusedCommitted to
shareholder returnsCommitted to ESG
leadership
Optimizing margincapture across the
value chain and funds flow stability
Investment grade credit profile provides
resiliency through the cycle
Leading cost structure WTI break-even heading
to <US$36/bbl
Support for the base dividend and strong
positioning for consistent growth in shareholder returns 2
Committed to leading ESG and safety
performance
Broad portfolio exposure to
global pricing
Proven track record of emissions intensity reductions, ~30%1
Targeting <2x net debt to EBITDA
at US$45 WTI(net debt <$8B longer term)
Returns focused capital allocation,
oil sands sustaining capital ~$4.50/bbl
(2021)
4
SECOND QUARTER DELIVERS ADJUSTED FUNDS FLOW OF $1.8 BILLION
GENERATED FREE FUNDS FLOW OF $1.3 BILLION
4
Q2 2021 RESULTS
Production 766 MBOE/d
539 Mbbls/d
Free funds flow
Integration costs
$1,283 million
$534 million
Adjusted funds flow $1,817 million
Capital spending
$46 million
• Net debt reduced by nearly $1 billion
• Strong netbacks captured across the business:• Oil Sands $32.43/bbl• Conventional $10.00/BOE• Offshore $57.06/BOE
• 2% increase to production guidance
• Maintained total capital guidance range of $2.3 - $2.7 billion
Note: See Advisory.
Q2 HIGHLIGHTS
Downstream throughput
HIGH-QUALITY, DIVERSE & INTEGRATED PORTFOLIO
Toledo Refinery
Lima RefineryWood RiverRefineryBorger Refinery
Superior Refinery
Atlantic Canada
Lloyd Thermal
Lloyd Upgrader & Refinery
Hardisty Terminal
Christina LakeFoster Creek
SunriseRainbow
Deep Basin
Bruderheim Terminal
Tucker
Legend
Conventional
Oil Sands
Offshore
Refineries
Midstream
Crude Export Pipelines
5
Note: See Advisory.
Oil Sands~570
Conventional~135
Offshore~70
2021E Production (MBOE/d)
750-790 MBOE/d
WRB248
Lima175
Toledo80
Superior49
Lloyd U&R110
Refining / Upgrading Capacity (Mbbls/d)
~660 Mbbls/d
Madura PSC Indonesia
Philippines
China
Thailand
Liwan
Asia Pacific
GEOGRAPHIC DIVERSIFICATION, PHYSICAL INTEGRATION AND MARKET ACCESS
6
INTEGRATED PORTFOLIO OF HIGH-QUALITY ASSETS
• FCCL – best-in-class oil sands assets with low SOR, low sustaining capital and long-life reserves
• Lloyd Thermal – repeatable, profitable development opportunities; stable operations at Sunrise & Tucker
• Extensive resource portfolio to sustain current production at low cost for 30+ years
• Combined pipeline, rail, storage and refining platform enhances ability to capture margin
• Strategically located assets, including in-basin refining and upgrading complex at Lloydminster, storage / blending operations at Hardisty, and a large U.S. refining footprint in PADD II & III
• Retail and commercial fuels business
• Attractive development opportunities including liquids-rich Montney, and Deep Basin gas and liquids
• Extensive infrastructure and natural gas processing capacity
• Long-term, fixed price gas production in China and Indonesia
• Brent oil price exposure in Atlantic Canada at the White Rose and Terra Nova fields
Top-tier heavy oil assets Extensive midstream and downstream network
Short-cycle natural gas portfolioHigh netback offshore production
HIGH-QUALITY HEAVY OIL ASSETS WITH MIDSTREAM & DOWNSTREAM INFRASTRUCTURE
Note: See Advisory.
7
COMMITTED TO A STRONG SAFETY CULTURE
Goal of making Cenovus a global top-tier safety performer
Harmonize and integrate core programs that protect the safety of our staff and the integrity of our assets
Implement the Cenovus Operations Integrity Management System (COIMS) to guide how we run and maintain our operations
Drive continued performance improvement and further embed safety into our overall culture
Incentivize performance across the organization by including key safety metrics on our performance scorecard
SAFETY AND ASSET INTEGRITY IS PRIORITIZED ABOVE ALL ELSE
8
ESG FOCUS AREAS FOR MEANINGFUL AND AMBITIOUS TARGETS IDENTIFIED ESG FOCUS AREAS VIA ROBUST MATERIALITY ASSESSMENT
Note: See Advisory. 1 - Ambition of net zero by 2050 maintained; additional climate related target development for the combined portfolio is underway.
Climate & GHG emissionsSupporting transition to lower
carbon economy1
Indigenous reconciliationOngoing engagement to increase opportunities and understanding
Water stewardship Using water in an environmentally
sustainable manner
BiodiversityAddressing ecological, wildlife and
land use impacts
Inclusion & diversityBuilding a sense of belonging through active participation
SAFETY & ASSET INTEGRITYCommitted to top-tier safety performance
GOVERNANCERobust governance framework that underpins our long-term strategy and business plans
ESG FOCUS AREAS
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OIL SANDS PATHWAYS TO NET ZERO INITIATIVE
• The Oil Sands Pathway to Net Zero Initiative is an alliance between Canada’s five largest oil sands producers, accounting for 90% of oil sands production
• The goal is to reduce current total oil sands greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of 68 MT of CO2e/year1 in three phases by 2050
• Working collectively with the Federal and Alberta governments, aim to achieve net zero GHG emissions from oil sands operations by 2050
• Will help Canada meet its climate goals, Paris Agreement commitments and 2050 net zero aspirations
Note: 1 - Current oil sands emissions estimate based on Government of Alberta emissions inventory (2018)
ADVANCING TECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE ABSOLUTE EMISSIONS
10
Aggregated ESG score for top reserve holders
Sources: ESG Scores – aggregation using an equal weighting (1/3) for each of Yale Environmental Performance Index, Social Progress Index and World Bank Governance Index. Reserves - BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020 based on government and published data.
CANADIAN BARRELS ARE IN THE WORLD’S BEST INTEREST
Bbbls
0
100
200
300
400
0
25
50
75
100
Yale Environmental Index (2020) Social Progress Index (2020) World Bank Governance Index (2019) Total Proved Reserves (2019)
OPPORTUNITY FOR HIGH ESG-RANKED CANADIAN BARRELS TO DISPLACE LOWER ESG-RANKED BARRELS
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LEADERSHIP THROUGH TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATIONTECHNOLOGIES TO REDUCE GHG EMISSIONS AND SUPPORT NET ZERO AMBITION
CARBON CAPTURE, UTILIZATION AND STORAGE (CCUS)• Lloydminster Ethanol Plant captures CO2 from production of fuel-grade ethanol
for enhanced oil recovery
• Participation in Svante partnership currently testing new carbon capture technology at Pikes Peak South thermal project
• Collaboration and government support (including Pathways) creating potential to accelerate CCUS in the oil sands
Solvent Pilot at FC
SAGD TECHNOLOGY• Largest and most technologically advanced operator with strategies to optimize
steam, inject non-condensable gas and increase injection points to reduce per-barrel emissions
• Multiple solvent pilot projects with potential to reduce GHG emissions and water use to de-risk the technology ahead of commercial deployment
CCS at Pikes Peak South
0x
1x
2x
3x
4x
5x
6x
7x
8x
CVE
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COMPELLING FREE FUNDS FLOW CAPACITYDELIVERING ON SYNERGIES, DEBT REDUCTION TO POSITION FOR SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
• WTI break-even of US$36/bbl in 2021 will further reduce through 2023
• Integration and market diversification provides exposure to global pricing supportive of a higher valuation
• Scale and quality of oil sands business competes globally on the supply cost curve
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
CVE
2022E 2022E
Note: Source: RBC Capital Markets. Based on forward strip pricing updated July 21, 2021. Peers include CNQ, CVX, COP, XOM, IMO, SU. See Advisory.
HIGHEST FCF YIELD LOWEST DEBT ADJUSTED CASH FLOW MULTIPLE
13
DISCIPLINED CAPITAL ALLOCATIONFOCUSED ON FULL CYCLE EARNINGS AND SHAREHOLDER RETURNS
Note: 1 – Subject to Board approval. See Advisory.
Sustaining capital
Net debt reduction
Current $10B > Net debt > $8B
Net debt reduction
Safe and reliable operations
Base dividend
Net debt reduction
Sustaining capital
Safe and reliable operations
Base dividend
Net debt < $8B
Sustaining capital
Safe and reliable operations
Base dividend
Increasing shareholder
returns1
Incremental investment in the business
Increasing shareholder
returns1
Incremental investment in the business
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FREE FUNDS FLOW PROFILE SUPPORTS DELEVERAGING REDUCING NET DEBT TO ~$10 BILLION TARGET BY YEAR-END 2021 AT CURRENT STRIP
$13.3$12.4
$10
$8
$0
$4
$8
$12
$16
As at March31, 2021
As at June30, 2021
2021 YE 2022+
• All free funds flow to be directed towards the balance sheet until $10 billion in net debt is achieved
• Longer-term target of $8 billion or below in net debt
• Lower leverage helps ensure liquidity and resilience throughout the commodity price cycle
POTENTIAL NET DEBT REDUCTION TRAJECTORY($ BILLIONS)
Note: See Advisory.
~$8.5 billioncommitted credit facilities
as of June 30, 2021
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BUILDING OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTUREINVESTMENT GRADE CREDIT PROFILE SUPPORTS CAPITAL STRUCTURE FLEXIBILITY
-
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2037
2039
2042
2043
2047
US$ maturities C$ maturities
Prin
cipa
l out
stan
ding
(U
S$
billi
ons)
Debt maturity profile1
Note: 1 - C$ maturities converted to US$ using 0.80 CAD/USD exchange rate. See Advisory.
Liquidity position
Credit ratings
S&P Moody’s DBRS Fitch
BBB- Baa3 BBB BB+
Stable outlook Negative outlook
StableTrend
Positive outlook
• Expect to reduce overall levels of debt as opportunities are available
• ~10 year weighted average bond maturity• Evaluating optimal bond and debt structure as we
shift to lower leverage
Note: See Advisory.
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2021E realizedsynergies
2022E+ annual run-rate synergies
~$600MM
~$400MM
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2021 BUDGET EXPECTED TO DELIVER ~$1 BILLION IN SYNERGIES
Workforce reductions, operating & other cost synergies
• ~$400 million savings to be achieved in 2021• FCCL operating strategies applied to other SAGD assets• IT and procurement and commercial savings• Combined Conventional portfolio benefits
Sustaining capital allocation synergies
• ~$600 million savings to be achieved in 2021• Optimize sustaining capital allocation to highest quality assets
without impacting volumes• Drive down break-evens and sustaining capital requirements
Longer-term opportunities for margin enhancement
• Enhanced operating and development practices• Potential optimization through the physical integration between
FCCL and the Lloyd complex
A
B
C
A
B
C
$1.2B
~$1.2 BILLION PER YEAR IN RUN-RATE SYNERGIES BY END OF 2021
Synergy realization ($millions)
CHRISTINA LAKE
• 220 - 240 Mbbls/d production 2021E• $7.00 - $8.00/bbl opex• Industry leading CSOR ~1.9• Cogeneration capacity of ~100MW
FOSTER CREEK
• 165 -185 Mbbls/d production 2021E• $9.50 - $10.50/bbl opex• CSOR ~2.5 • Cogeneration capacity of ~100MW
LLOYD THERMALS
• 90 - 100 Mbbls/d production 2021E• $12.50 – $14.00/bbl opex• Higher quality, lower API and viscosity
than traditional oil sands crude
OIL SANDS OPERATIONS ARE THE FOUNDATION OF OUR BUSINESS
SUNRISE (50% WORKING INTEREST)
• 25 - 27 Mbbls/d net production 2021E• $14.00 - $17.00/bbl opex• Physical integration with the Toledo Refinery
TUCKER
• 20 - 22 Mbbls/d production 2021E• $14.00 - $17.00/bbl opex• Provides optionality for feedstock to the
Lloydminster complex
~570,000 BARRELS PER DAY OF PRODUCTION EXPECTED FROM OIL SANDS IN 2021
COLD / ENHANCED OIL RECOVERY (EOR)
• 20 - 22 Mbbls/d production 2021E• $31.00 - $34.00/bbl opex• Managing natural declines• Piloting CO2 EOR technology
Note: See Advisory.
17
18
Note: See Advisory.
TOP-TIER OIL SANDS OPERATIONS DRIVES FREE FUNDS FLOW
• Industry leaders in SAGD and track record of responsible development
• Operating margin strength supports sustainable shareholder returns
• Low upstream operating costs and low sustaining capital structure
• Applying operating strategies and development expertise in expanded portfolio
BUILDING ON OUR CORE STRENGTHS WITH AN EXPANDED PORTFOLIO
Low cost, low decline reserves
Top-tier heavy oil operations
Leaders in SAGD performance
Cogeneration capacity
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BEST-IN-CLASS SAGD OPERATIONSLEVERAGING OPERATING EXPERIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY FOR CONTINUOUS IMPROVEMENT
• Largest and most experienced SAGD operator with advanced operating strategies applied across the combined portfolio
• Top performing assets with low GHG intensity resilient to rising carbon prices
• Low sustaining capital requirements and low operating costs drive free funds flow across the business
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
CVE
Production SOR
Mbbls/d
LARGEST IN SITU OIL SANDS PRODUCER WITH TOP-TIER SOR PERFORMANCE
Note: Source: Alberta Energy Regulator. SOR refers to portfolio weighted steam to oil ratio, a key measure of efficiency for in situ oil sands equivalent to the amount of steam needed to produce one barrel of oil. Average daily production and portfolio-weighted steam oil ratio based on full year 2020. Peers include ATH, CNOOC, CNQ, Cona, COP, IMO, JACOS, MEG, Osum, SU.
SOR
• 2021E production of ~135 MBOE/d
• Low base decline ~13-15%
• Year-to-date netback reflects the strength of increased marketing efforts for natural gas and facility optimization
• Focused on value generating opportunities that support net debt reduction
CONVENTIONAL PROVIDES SHORT-CYCLE HIGH-RETURN OPPORTUNITIES
Note: Netbacks from 2017 – 2020 do not reflect the acquisition of Husky Energy Inc.
CAPITAL INVESTMENT FOCUSED ON RETURNS AND FREE FUNDS FLOW GENERATION
$0
$1
$2
$3
$4
$5
$6
$0
$5
$10
$15
2017 2018 2019 2020 1H/21
Netback ($/BOE) AECO 7A ($/mcf)
DELIVERING STRONG NETBACKS$/BOE $/mcf
20
ASIA PACIFIC: CHINA & INDONESIA
• Liwan Gas Project in China
o 1H 2021 netback of $60.71/BOE
• Madura / BD Project in Indonesia
• Fixed price, long-term contracts provide stable free cash flow generation
ATLANTIC REGION• Operator of the White Rose field and partner in Terra Nova
• Light, sweet crude with Brent-like pricing
• Future of the West White Rose project under evaluation, project on hold for 2021
OFFSHORE PROVIDES DIVERSIFIED FREE FUNDS FLOW STREAMHIGH-NETBACK PRODUCTION WITH GLOBAL PRICING
White Rose Field
Liwan Gas Project
21
22
DOWNSTREAM PROVIDES DIVERSE MARGIN CAPTURE OPPORTUNITIESRESILIENT BUSINESS MODEL REDUCES CASH FLOW VOLATILITY
• Upgrader provides diluent loop and sells high value Canadian products
• U.S. refining provides exposure to global market for refined products
• Ability to leverage egress options to access preferred markets
• Extensive midstream network and storage assets support marketing activities
High-margin Canadian
upgrading and asphalt refining
Strategically located U.S.
refineries
Market optionality with ex-Alberta
pipeline capacity
Crude-by-rail business provides
flexibility
LLOYDMINSTER UPGRADER
• 81 Mbbls/d throughput capacity
• Produces high quality, low sulphur synthetic crude oil and diesel fuel, and recovers diluent from the feedstock
• Condensate is cycled back to the nearby thermal operations
LLOYDMINSTER REFINERY
• 30 Mbbls/d throughput capacity
• Produces more than 30 different types and grades of road asphalt from heavy oil
• 10 asphalt terminals in Canada and U.S. to serve retail customer base
RETAIL BUSINESS
• Fuel volumes complemented by an established non-fuel platform including convenience stores, restaurants and car washes
• Approximately 535 fuel outlets, both Husky and Esso® branded
HIGH MARGIN CANADIAN UPGRADING AND ASPHALT REFININGUPGRADER AND REFINERY STRATEGICALLY LOCATED IN LLOYDMINSTER
Lloyd Upgrader
Asphalt Refinery
23
Note: ® denotes a trademark of Imperial Oil Limited
TOLEDO, OHIO (50% INTEREST)• 80 Mbbls/d capacity (net)• 40 Mbbls/d heavy oil capacity (net)• Configured to process high-TAN heavy
crude
LIMA, OHIO• 175 Mbbls/d capacity (40 Mbbls/d heavy)• Hydrocracker/FCC/coker configuration• Crude oil flexibility project completed in
2019 to run additional heavy crudes
SUPERIOR, WISCONSIN• 49 Mbbls/d capacity• 34 Mbbls/d heavy oil capacity • Expected restart Q1 2023
STRATEGICALLY LOCATED U.S. REFINERIES
WOOD RIVER, ILLINOIS (50% INTEREST)• 173 Mbbls/d capacity (net) • 120 Mbbls/d heavy oil capacity (net)• Accesses multiple pipelines – Keystone,
Express-Platte, Mustang, Ozark• Ability to process and connected to Canadian
heavy crudes
BORGER, TEXAS (50% INTEREST)• 75 Mbbls/d capacity (net)• 18 Mbbls/d heavy oil capacity (net)• Access to Canadian heavy, West Texas
Sour and Permian supply
INTEGRATION PROVIDES BALANCED DIFFERENTIAL EXPOSURE
24
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
(Mbb
ls/d
)
25
BALANCED INTEGRATED HEAVY OIL VALUE CHAIN
Heavy Blend Heavy Coverage
Canada
PADD I
PADD II
PADD III
PADD IV
PADD V
MODEST EXPOSURE TO ALBERTA HEAVY OIL PRICE DIFFERENTIALS
Heavy oil blend vs. processing and export capacity
Modest exposure to Alberta WCS prices
Note: 1 - Barrels are refined and upgraded in WCSB and don't require use of pipeline or U.S. refining capacity. See Advisory.
WCSB egress pipeline capacity
Available Mainline verification capacity
U.S. heavy oil refining capacity
WCSB heavy upgrading & refining capacity(1)
Flexible crude-by-rail capacity
Exposed to AB WCS Prices
~110
26
SUPERIOR REFINERY REBUILD TO ENHANCE INTEGRATION
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
Pre-2021 2021E 2022E
Note: Capital investment does not include offsetting insurance proceeds. See Advisory.
Capital investment (US $millions)
DIVERSIFICATION OF REFINED PRODUCT SLATE WITH INCREASED ASPHALT PRODUCTION
• Project is currently 55% complete; engineering and procurement on track
• Total project cost estimate of US$950 million exceeds economic hurdles on a go-forward basis
• Substantial amount of capital expected to be recovered through insurance proceeds
• 49 Mbbls/d throughput capacity with up to 34 Mbbls/d heavy processing
• Expected restart in Q1 2023
27
U.S. MANUFACTURING OPERATING MARGIN SENSITIVITIESSENSITIVITIES BASED ON FULL YEAR OPERATING ASSUMPTIONS
(US$5)
(US$20)
(US$40)
(US$125)
(US$150)
US$5
US$20
US$40
US$125
US$150
-$200 -$100 $0 $100 $200
Crude oil (WTI)
WTI-WTS Differential
WTI-WCS Differential
RINs
Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread
Benchmark Increase Benchmark Decrease
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- US$1.00/bbl RVO change
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- US$1.00 change
• Healthy exposure to Chicago 3-2-1 crack spreads as demand for refined products continues to recover
• Sensitivities are based on 2021 guidance operating assumptions and underlying utilization rates
• Minimal exposure to changes in feedstock pricing relative to WTI
PRICE SENSITIVITIES ON U.S. MANUFACTURING OPERATING MARGIN (US$MM)
Note: Sensitivities are in US$ and are calculated on a full year LIFO basis using base price assumptions reflected in 2021 guidance. RINs assumed at US$6.50/bbl, (2020 Standards 11.56%). Operating Margin sensitivities exclude the Superior Refinery, which is currently being rebuilt. See Advisory.
28
INTEGRATED PORTFOLIO ENHANCES CASH FLOW STABILITYBALANCED EXPOSURE TO GLOBAL PRICING
• Low volatility in cash flows along with best-in-class cost structure drives free funds flow profile to support dividends and continue deleveraging
• Modest exposure to WTI-WCS light-heavy differential for Alberta heavy barrels
• Oil Sands fuel gas requirements reduces overall company exposure to AECO pricing
PRICE SENSITIVITIES ON ADJUSTED FUNDS FLOW ($MM)
Note: Sensitivities include current hedge positions applicable for the full year 2021. Refining results embedded in the sensitivities are based on unlagged margin changes and do not include the effect of changes in inventory valuation for first-in, first-out/lower of cost or net realizable value. Base price assumptions reflected in 2021 guidance dated July 28, 2021. See Advisory.
($30)
($110)
($150)
($180)
($225)
$30
$110
$150
$180
$225
-$400 -$200 $0 $200 $400
Natural gas (AECO)
Exchange rate (US$/C$)
Light-heavy diff (WTI-WCS)
Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread
Crude oil (WTI)
Benchmark Increase Benchmark Decrease
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- US$1.00 change
+/- $0.01 change
+/- C$1.00 change
APPENDIX
HIGHLIGHTS
30
2021 UPDATED GUIDANCE
• Increased production by 2% with maintained capital guidance range of $2.3 – $2.7 billion for 2021
• 750-790 MBOE/d expected production
• Production increase driven by adding another 10 Mbbl/d to Lloyd Thermals
• Operating cost ranges in Oil Sands adjusted to reflect higher fuel gas prices
2021E Assumptions Production (MBOE/d) Operating Costs ($/BOE)
Christina Lake 220 – 240 $7.00 – 8.00
Foster Creek 165 – 185 $9.50 – 10.50
Lloyd Thermal 90 – 100 $12.50 – 14.00
Other oil sands assets 65 – 71 See detailed guidance
Total Oil Sands 540 – 596 $10.25 – 11.50
Conventional 131 – 141 $10.00 – 11.50
Atlantic 13 – 15 $40.00 – 45.00
China 45 – 50 $5.00 – 6.00
Indonesia 8 – 9 $10.50 – 12.50
Total Offshore 66 - 74 $12.00 – 14.00
Total production1 750 – 790
2021E Assumptions Throughput (Mbbls/d)
Operating Costs ($/bbl)
Canadian manufacturing2 100 - 110 $8.50 – 10.00
U.S. manufacturing 400 - 440 $10.00 – 12.00
Total throughput 500 – 550 $10.00 – 11.50Note: 1 - Production ranges for assets are not intended to equal total upstream. 2 -Canadian manufacturing throughput and operating costs are associated with the Lloydminster Upgrader & Refinery. See Advisory
31
2021 FULL YEAR CAPITAL GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AT $2.3 - $2.7B
• Oil Sands capital increased by $100 million, for accelerating the completion of Spruce Lake North and redevelopment wells at Christina Lake
• $100 million decrease in U.S. Manufacturing segment capital reflecting efficiencies across the portfolio
• Integration costs lowered by $100 million, shifted into 2022
• No impact to our expected annual run-rate of $1.2B synergies to be reached by year end
Note: 1 - Refining capital and operating costs are reported in C$, but incurred in both C$ and in US$ and as such will be impacted by foreign exchange. 2 - Superior Refinery Rebuild capital does not include offsetting insurance proceeds. See Advisory.
HIGHLIGHTSCapital expenditures ($ millions) 2021E
Oil sands 950 – 1,050 Conventional 170 – 210 Offshore 200 – 250 Total Upstream 1,320 – 1,510 Canadian & U.S. Manufacturing1 380 – 730 Superior Refinery Rebuild1,2 520 – 570 Total Downstream1 900 – 1,100 Corporate 75 – 100 Total capital expenditures 2,300 – 2,700
Expenses ($ millions) 2021EGeneral & Administrative 475 – 525 One-time Integration Costs 400 – 450 Cash Tax (Recovery) 200 – 250
^
^
^
Steepbank
East McMurray
TelephoneLake
Foster Creek Proper
Narrows Lake
West KirbyWinefred Lake
Christina Lake Proper
BOREALIS REGION
CHRISTINA LAKE REGION
FOSTER CREEK REGION
HardyLeismer
Albe
rta
Saskatchewan
GrosmontWabiskaw/McMurray
Clearwater
North &
SouthHouse
LLOYD THERMALS
SUNRISE
TUCKER
Conklin
Cold Lake
Fort McMurray
McMullen
Saleski
K
CV
E-1
782-
1407
!
!
!
Calgary
FortMcMurray
Edmonton
0 10 20 30 40 50
Kilometers1:2,225,000
R1W4R5W4R10W4R15W4R20W4R1W5T95
T100T85
T90T70
T75T80
T65T6
0T6
5T7
0T7
5T8
0T8
5T9
0T9
5T1
00
R25W3R1W4R5W4R10W4R15W4R20W4R25W4R1W5
Cenovus oil sands land at January 20, 2021
Cenovus PNG Land
Grosmont Deposit
Clearwater Deposit
Wabiskaw/McMurrayDeposit
2021 Corporate guidance - C$, before royaltiesJuly 28, 2021
UPSTREAMOIL SANDS
Production Capital expenditures Operating costs Effective royalty(Mbbls/d) ($ millions) ($/bbl) rates (%)
Christina Lake 220 - 240 7.00 - 8.00 19 - 23Foster Creek 165 - 185 9.50 - 10.50 18 - 22Lloyd Thermal 90 - 100 12.50 - 14.00 7 - 10Cold/EOR 20 - 22 31.00 - 34.00 8 - 11Sunrise 25 - 27 14.00 - 17.00 3 - 5Tucker 20 - 22 14.00 - 17.00 18 - 22
Oil Sands total 540 - 596 950 - 1,050 10.25 - 11.50
CONVENTIONALProduction
(Mbbls/d)
Crude oil 8 - 9 Capital expenditures Operating costs Effective royaltyNGLs 26 - 28 ($ millions) ($/boe) rates (%)
(MMcf/d)
Natural gas 580 - 620
Conventional total 131 - 140 170 - 210 10.00 - 11.50 10 - 13
OFFSHOREProduction Capital expenditures Operating costs Effective royalty
(MBOE/d) ($ millions) ($/boe) rates (%)
Atlantic 13 - 15 40.00 - 45.00 6 - 9China 45 - 50 5.00 - 6.00 5 - 7Indonesia (1) 8 - 9 10.50 - 12.50 20 - 25
Offshore total 66 - 74 200 - 250 12.00 - 14.00
TOTAL UPSTREAMCapital expenditures
($ millions)
Total liquids 610 - 640Total natural gas 840 - 890Total upstream (2) 750 - 790 1,320 - 1,510
DOWNSTREAMThroughput Operating costs
(Mbbls/d) ($/bbl)
Canadian Manufacturing (3) 100 - 110 8.50 - 10.00U.S. Manufacturing (4) 400 - 440 10.00 - 12.00Superior Refinery (5) 520 - 570
Downstream total 500 - 550 900 - 1,100 10.00 - 11.50
CORPORATECorporate & other expenditures ($ millions) 75 - 100 General & administrative expenses ($ millions) (6) 475 - 525Total capital expenditures ($ billions) 2.3 - 2.7 Cash tax ($ millions) 200 - 250One-time integration costs ($ millions) 400 - 450 Effective tax rate (%) (7) 25 - 29
PRICE ASSUMPTIONS & ADJUSTED FUNDS FLOW SENSITIVITIES (8)
Brent (US$/bbl) $69.00 Independent base case sensitivities Increase DecreaseWTI (US$/bbl) $66.00 (for the full year 2021) ($ millions) ($ millions)Western Canada Select (US$/bbl) $53.00 Crude oil (WTI) - US$1.00 change 225 (225)Differential WTI-WCS (US$/bbl) $13.00 Light-heavy differential (WTI-WCS) - US$1.00 change (150) 150Chicago 3-2-1 Crack Spread (US$/bbl) $17.00 Chicago 3-2-1 crack spread - US$1.00 change 190 (190)RINs (US$/bbl) $6.50 Natural gas (AECO) - C$1.00 change (30) 30AECO ($/Mcf) $3.30 Exchange rate (US$/C$) - $0.01 change (110) 100Exchange Rate (US$/C$) $0.80
(1) Indonesia production and capital is accounted for under the equity method for consolidated financial statement purposes.(2) Production ranges for assets are not intended to add to equal total upstream.(3) Canadian Manufacturing throughput and operating costs are associated with the Lloydminster Upgrader & Refinery.(4) U.S. Manufacturing capital and operating costs are reported in C$, but incurred in US$ and as such will be impacted by FX.(5) Capital expenditure to rebuild Superior Refinery is before expected insurance proceeds.(6) Forecasted G&A does not include stock based compensation.(7) Statutory rates of 24% in Canada and 23% in the U.S. are applied separately to pre-tax operating earnings streams for each country. Excludes the effect of divestiture and mark-to-market gains and losses. (8) Sensitivities include current hedge positions applicable for the full year of 2021. Refining results embedded in the sensitivities are based on unlagged margin changes and do not include the effect of changes in inventory valuation for first-in, first-out/lower of cost or net realizable value.
($ millions)
(Mbbls/d, MMcf/d, MBOE/d)
Capital expenditures
Production
Oil and Gas Information
The pro forma reserves information presented sets forth Cenovus’s anticipated gross reserves as at December 31, 2020 after giving effect to the Husky Arrangement as though the transaction had occurred on December 31, 2020. Cenovus has not constructed a consolidated reserves report of the combined assets of Cenovus and Husky and has not engaged an independent reserves evaluator to produce such a report in accordance with NI 51-101. Cenovus and Husky employed different methodologies to estimate their reserves information for the year ended December 31, 2020. Cenovus retained two IQREs, McDaniel and GLJ, to evaluate and prepare reports on 100 percent of its proved and probable reserves. All of Husky’s oil and gas reserves estimates were prepared by internal qualified reserves evaluators using a formalized process for determining, approving and booking reserves, and do not form part of Cenovus's reserves data as at December 31, 2020. For the purposes of Husky’s NI 51-101 reserves disclosure in the Husky AIF, Husky engaged Sproule to conduct a complete audit and review of 100 percent of Husky’s oil and gas reserves estimates. As a result, the actual reserves of Cenovus (after giving effect to the Husky Arrangement), if calculated as at December 31, 2020 by an independent reserves evaluator in accordance with NI 51-101, may differ from the reserves information presented in this presentation for a number of reasons, and such differences may be material. Additional information concerning Husky’s oil and natural gas properties and Husky’s operations and business as of December 31, 2020 may be found in the Husky AIF and the Husky MD&A, each of which is filed and available on SEDAR under Husky’s profile at sedar.com and on EDGAR at sec.gov. 2020 proved & probable reserves as at December 31, 2020. Reserve life index based on 2020 proved plus probable reserves and 2020 production before royalties, which was impacted by mandatory curtailment.
Barrels of Oil Equivalent
Natural gas volumes have been converted to barrels of oil equivalent (BOE) on the basis of six Mcf to one barrel (bbl). BOE may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A conversion ratio of one bbl to six Mcf is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil compared with natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency conversion ratio of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis is not an accurate reflection of value.
Presentation Basis
Cenovus presents production volumes on a net to Cenovus before royalties basis, unless otherwise stated.
Non-GAAP Measures and Additional Subtotal
This presentation contains references to adjusted funds flow, free funds flow and net debt, which are non-GAAP measures. These measures do not have a standardized meaning as prescribed by IFRS. Readers should not consider these measures in isolation or as a substitute for analysis of the company’s results as reported under IFRS. These measures are defined differently by different companies and therefore are not comparable to similar measures presented by other issuers. For definitions, as well as reconciliations to GAAP measures, and more information on these and other non-GAAP measures and additional subtotals, refer to “Non-GAAP Measures and Additional Subtotals” on page 1 of Cenovus’s MD&A for the period ended March 31, 2021 (available on SEDAR at sedar.com on EDGAR at sec.gov and Cenovus’s website at cenovus.com.)
Forward-looking Information
This presentation contains certain forward-looking statements and forward-looking information (collectively referred to as “forward-looking information”) within the meaning of applicable securities legislation, including the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, about our current expectations, estimates and projections about the future, based on certain assumptions made by us in light of our experience and perception of historical trends. Although we believe that the expectations represented by such forward-looking information are reasonable, there can be no assurance that such expectations will prove to be correct.
Forward-looking information in this presentation is identified by words such as “achieve”, “ambition”, “committed”, “continue”, “drive”, “E”, “ensure”, “expect”, “focus”, “forecast”, “future”, “goal” “go-forward”, “maintain”, “opportunity”, “position”, “potential”, “priority”, “target”, “will” or similar expressions and includes suggestions of future outcomes, including, but not limited to, statements about: general and 2021 priorities; achieving less than 2x Net Debt to EBITDA; attaining breakeven at WTI below US$36.00/bbl in 2021 and further reductions through 2023; achieving 2021 sustaining capital of approximately $4.50/bbl in the Oil Sands; consistent growth in and sustainable shareholder returns; delivering value for all stakeholders; safety performance, governance, operational reliability and asset integrity; ESG leadership, goals and targets and ambitions for focus areas; technologies to reduce GHG emissions and support net zero ambition; collaborating with other producers to reduce GHG emissions and achieve net zero emissions from the oil sands by 2050 and help Canada satisfy its climate goals, Paris Agreement commitments and net zero aspirations; company valuation; reducing Net Debt to $10 billion by the end of 2021 and below $8 billion longer-term; liquidity and resilience throughout the commodity price cycle; delivering ~$1 billion in synergies in 2021 and ~1.2 billion per year in run-rate synergies by the end of 2021 through workforce reductions, operating and other cost synergies, sustaining capital allocation synergies and longer-term opportunities for margin enhancement; share price momentum resulting from delivering on synergies and debt reduction; capturing synergies and accelerating economic benefits in the conventional assets; access to preferred markets through egress options; upstream production and downstream throughput; cumulative steam to oil ratios and cogeneration capacity at Christina Lake and Foster Creek; physical integration of Sunrise with the Toledo Refinery; piloting CO2 enhanced oil recovery technology; cost and timing of Superior Refinery rebuild and amount and timing of offset insurance proceeds; Superior Refinery restart date and nameplate and heavy processing capacity; adjusted funds flow and free funds flow; sustaining current heavy oil production at low cost for 30+ years; capturing margin; and downstream operating margin.
Developing forward-looking information involves reliance on a number of assumptions and consideration of certain risks and uncertainties, some of which are specific to Cenovus and others that apply to the industry generally. The factors or assumptions on which the forward-looking information in this presentation are based include, but are not limited to: Cenovus’s ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the Husky transaction; the allocation of free cash flow to Cenovus’s balance sheet; commodity prices; future narrowing of crude oil differentials; Cenovus’s ability to produce from oil sands facilities on an unconstrained basis; Cenovus’s ability to access sufficient insurance coverage to pursue development plans; Cenovus’s ability to deliver safe and reliable operations and demonstrate strong governance; and the assumptions inherent in Cenovus’s 2021 guidance available on cenovus.com.
The risk factors and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking information in this presentation, include, but are not limited to: Cenovus’s ability to realize the anticipated benefits of the Husky transaction; the effectiveness of Cenovus’s risk management program; the accuracy of estimates regarding commodity prices, operating and capital costs and currency and interest rates; risks inherent in the operation of Cenovus’s business; ability to successfully complete development plans; and risks associated with climate change and Cenovus’s assumptions relating thereto.
Except as required by applicable securities laws, Cenovus disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists are not exhaustive and are made as at the date hereof. Events or circumstances could cause actual results to differ materially from those estimated or projected and expressed in, or implied by, the forward-looking information. For additional information regarding Cenovus’s material risk factors, the assumptions made, and risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results to differ from the anticipated results, refer to “Risk Management and Risk Factors” and “Advisory” in Cenovus’s MD&A for the period ended March 31, 2021 and to the risk factors, assumptions and uncertainties described in other documents Cenovus files from time to time with securities regulatory authorities in Canada (available on SEDAR at sedar.com, on EDGAR at sec.gov and Cenovus’s website at cenovus.com). Additional information concerning Husky’s business and assets as of December 31, 2020 may be found in Husky’s MD&A and AIF, each of which is filed and available on SEDAR under Cenovus’s profile at sedar.com.
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