Q2 2020 Earnings presentation€¦ · Origination growth in Accelerator and Commercial offsets...

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1 Q2 2020 earnings presentation August 6, 2020

Transcript of Q2 2020 Earnings presentation€¦ · Origination growth in Accelerator and Commercial offsets...

Page 1: Q2 2020 Earnings presentation€¦ · Origination growth in Accelerator and Commercial offsets slowdown in Classic $1,012.7 $854.9 $37.7 $272.9 $0.0 $200.0 $400.0 $600.0 $800.0 $1,000.0

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Q2 2020 earnings

presentation

August 6, 2020

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From time to time Home Capital Group Inc. makes written and verbal forward-looking statements. These are included in the Annual Report, periodic reports to

shareholders, regulatory filings, press releases, Company presentations and other Company communications. Forward-looking statements are made in connection

with business objectives and targets, Company strategies, operations, anticipated financial results and the outlook for the Company, its industry, and the Canadian

economy. These statements regarding expected future performance are “financial outlooks” within the meaning of National Instrument 51-102. Please see the risk

factors, which are set forth in detail in the Risk Management section of the 2020 Second Quarter Report, as well as the Company’s other publicly filed information,

which is available on the System for Electronic Document Analysis and Retrieval (SEDAR) at www.sedar.com, for the material factors that could cause the

Company’s actual results to differ materially from these statements. These risk factors are material risk factors a reader should consider, and include credit risk,

liquidity and funding risk, structural interest rate risk, operational risk, investment risk, strategic risk, reputational risk, compliance risk and capital adequacy risk

along with additional risk factors that may affect future results. Forward-looking statements can be found in the Report to the Shareholders and the Outlook section

in the 2020 Second Quarter Report. Forward-looking statements are typically identified by words such as “will,” “believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “intend,” “should,”

“estimate,” “plan,” “forecast,” “may,” and “could” or other similar expressions.

By their very nature, these statements require the Company to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainty, general and specific, which

may cause actual results to differ materially from the expectations expressed in the forward-looking statements. These risks and uncertainties include, but are not

limited to, the impacts of the novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and government responses to it, global capital market activity, changes in

government monetary and economic policies, changes in interest rates, inflation levels and general economic conditions, legislative and regulatory developments,

climate change, competition and technological change. The preceding list is not exhaustive of possible factors.

These and other factors should be considered carefully and readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements. The Company

presents forward-looking statements to assist shareholders in understanding the Company’s assumptions and expectations about the future that are relevant in

management’s setting of performance goals, strategic priorities and outlook. The Company presents its outlook to assist shareholders in understanding

management’s expectations on how the future will impact the financial performance of the Company. These forward-looking statements may not be appropriate for

other purposes. The Company does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or verbal, that may be made from time to time by it or

on its behalf, except as required by securities laws.

Forward-looking statements

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Overview

Yousry Bissada, CEO

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Highlights of Q2 2020

Worked with

borrowers to

find optimal

solutions

beyond initial

deferral period

Launched new

projects in digital

banking and loan

origination

Growth in residential and

commercial loan

originations from Q2 2019

All Ignite teams

transitioned to working remotely –

projects moving forward

Industry

activity shows

evidence of

healthy and

resilient real

estate market

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Supporting our borrowers beyond payment deferrals

First request• Up to two months’ payment deferral to borrowers

in good standing (Stage 1 or Stage 2)

Later requests• Full review of financial situation with borrower

• Understanding the impact of different solutions

Additional payment

deferral

Return to scheduled

payments

Other forms of

accommodation

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Financial

resultsBrad Kotush, CFO

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Q2 highlights

$27.80

$30.11

$20.00

$22.00

$24.00

$26.00

$28.00

$30.00

$32.00

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Book value per share

1 See definition of Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Diluted Earnings per Share and

Adjusted Return on Shareholders’ Equity in the Company’s 2020 Second Quarter

Report.

$31.9$34.7 $34.1

$36.6

$20.0

$24.0

$28.0

$32.0

$36.0

$40.0

Q2 2019 Q2 2019Adjusted¹

Q2 2020 Q2 2020Adjusted¹

Net income - millions

7.7%8.4% 8.9%

9.5%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

Q2 2019 Q2 2019Adjusted¹

Q2 2020 Q2 2020Adjusted¹

Return on equity

$0.53 $0.58

$0.65 $0.70

$-

$0.20

$0.40

$0.60

$0.80

Q2 2019 Q2 2019Adjusted¹

Q2 2020 Q2 2020Adjusted¹

Earnings per share

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Impact of higher revenue offset by higher provisions expense

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$106.9

$257.2

$119.3

$110.1

$-

$50.0

$100.0

$150.0

$200.0

$250.0

$300.0

$350.0

$400.0

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Mill

ions

Residential commercial Non-residential commercial

Origination growth in Accelerator and Commercial offsets

slowdown in Classic

$1,012.7$854.9

$37.7$272.9

$0.0

$200.0

$400.0

$600.0

$800.0

$1,000.0

$1,200.0

Q2 2019 Q2 2020

Mill

ions

Classic single-family Accelerator single-family

+7.4%

+62.3%

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On-balance sheet loan portfolio

$16.7

$17.0 $17.2 $17.1

$17.2

$14.0

$14.5

$15.0

$15.5

$16.0

$16.5

$17.0

$17.5

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Total loan portfolio (billions)+3.3% y/y

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Upward trend in credit quality during Q2 in line with sustainable risk culture

Loans are of high quality and secured by assets at a low LTV

682 711 705 710

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Classic originationsduring Q1

Classic originationsduring Q2

Total Classicportfolio at end of

Q1

Total Classicportfolio at end of

Q2

Weighted-average FICO score

69.6%

60.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

New uninsured single-familyresidential mortgages originated

in Q2 2020

All uninsured single-familyresidential mortgages at end of

Q2

Weighted-average loan to value

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Net interest margin 31 bps higher compared with Q2 2019

2.03%

1.99%2.01%

2.09%

2.22%

2.31%

2.38%2.40%

1.85%

1.95%

2.05%

2.15%

2.25%

2.35%

2.45%

Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Net interest margin (TEB1)

1 Net interest margin is a measure of profitability of assets. Net interest margin (TEB) is calculated by taking net interest income, on a taxable equivalent

basis, divided by the average total assets.

Higher average yields on non-securitized

products

Lower rates on deposit liabilities

Higher balance of low-yielding liquid assets

Increased due to:

Partially offset by:

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Growing deposits through our Oaken channel

Oaken now accounts for 26.2% of deposits with majority in the form of term deposits

$3.1

$0.6

$3.7

$0.0

$0.5

$1.0

$1.5

$2.0

$2.5

$3.0

$3.5

$4.0

Q2 2020

Oaken deposits by product in $billions

GICs Savings accounts Total

16.4%

83.6%

$10.4 $10.2 $10.2 $10.4 $10.3

$3.1 $3.3 $3.4 $3.5 $3.7

$13.5 $13.5 $13.6 $13.9 $14.0

$-

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Broker and Oaken deposits in $billions

Broker Oaken Total

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Substantial decline in loans in payment deferral program

Accelerator Classic Commercial Other Total

deferrals

Loans: April 30 1,879 6,859 358 807 9,903

Loans: July 31 684 1,987 23 4 2,698

Change in number

of loans

(64%) (71%) (94%) (100%) (73%)

Principal: April 30

(millions)

$526.5 $3,154.5 $185.1 $67.5 $3,933.6

Principal: July 31

(millions)

$205.1 $1,078.4 $15.0 $0.5 $1,299.0

Change in principal

balance

(61%) (66%) (92%) (99%) (67%)

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• Provisions for credit losses of 0.43% of gross loans on an annualized basis

• Net write-offs of 0.02% of gross loans on an annualized basis

• Net write-offs of single-family residential mortgages were less than one basis point

Provisions and write-offs as a percentage of gross loans

Results in 2018, 2019 and 2020 are reported under IFRS 9 and results in 2016 and 2017 are

reported under IAS 39 which may limit comparability to prior periods.

0.43%

0.02%

-0.20%

-0.10%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

Q32016

Q42016

Q12017

Q22017

Q32017

Q42017

Q12018

Q22018

Q32018

Q42018

Q12019

Q22019

Q32019

Q42019

Q12020

Q22020

Provisions (annualized) as a % of gross loans

Net write-offs (annualized) as a % of gross loans

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Net non-performing loans and credit allowance

Results in 2018, 2019 and 2020 are reported under IFRS 9 and results in

2016 and 2017 are reported under IAS 39 which may limit comparability

to prior periods.

24.3% 23.6%25.2% 34.3%

31.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

$-

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Mill

ion

s

Total Stage 3 Loans (Gross) NPL Allowance as % of Gross NPL

0.42%

0.37%

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

Net Non-Performing Loans as % of Gross Loans

Net Non-Performing Single-Family Residential Loans as % ofGross Single-Family Residential Loans

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Allowance for credit losses in Q2 2020

$29.5 $35.4

$24.0

$32.1$3.9

$3.8$33.8

$37.6

$91.3

$108.9

$-

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Mill

ions

Other consumer retail Credit cards and lines of credit

Commercial mortgages Single family residential mortgages

Total

$59.5

$76.1

$31.8

$32.8

$91.3

$108.9

$-

$20.0

$40.0

$60.0

$80.0

$100.0

$120.0

Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Mill

ions

Stage 3 Stages 1 and 2 Total

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Change in components of allowance for credit losses

Sequential change in components of allowance

(in 000s) Stages 1 and 2 Stage 3 Total

Single-family residential mortgages$ 3,337 $ 2,506 $ 5,843

Commercial mortgages$ 10,391 $ (2,275) $ 8,116

Credit card loans and lines of credit$ (41) $ (68) $ (109)

Other consumer retail loans$ 2,914 $ 886 $ 3,800

Total$ 16,601 $ 1,049 $ 17,650

94% of increase attributable to Stages 1 and 2 loans

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High volume of liquid assets and near-term asset maturities

Aggregate available liquidity of $1.81 billion at the end of Q2 including $500 million undrawn credit

facility79% of loans mature within 12 months

$1,323 $1,341 $1,366 $1,429

$1,309

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

Q2 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020

Mill

ions

Liquid assets at carrying value

As % of Total assets

$3.0

$8.3

$2.2

$0.8

$14.3

$1.8

$5.1$4.5

$1.7

$13.1

$0.0

$2.0

$4.0

$6.0

$8.0

$10.0

$12.0

$14.0

$16.0

0-3 months 3-12months

1-3 years Over 3years

Total

Bill

ions

Non-Securitized Contractual Loan Maturities

Contractual Fixed Term Deposit Maturities

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Additional sources of funding and liquidity

➢ $500 million committed secured standby facility renewed in Q2

➢ $300 million committed secured warehouse facility with a syndicate of Canadian banks

➢ $100 million uncommitted repo facility with a Canadian institutional investor

➢ Q3 2019 RMBS transaction continues to perform in line with initial estimates

➢ Will return to RMBS issuance when market conditions are favourable

➢ Access to the Bank of Canada’s Standing Term Liquidity Facility

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Capital and leverage metrics1

Generous capital buffer to support borrowers and protect depositors

Leverage is within internal risk limits and well above regulatory requirements

7.00%

18.48%

REGULATORY MINIMUM

ACTUAL

1 Ratios are based on Home Trust Company’s consolidated financial

position.

Basel III Common Equity Tier 1 at Q2 2020 Leverage ratio at Q2 2020

3.00%

7.38%

REGULATORYMINIMUM

ACTUAL

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Questions?

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Q2 Financial highlights

Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2019 Sequential changeYear-over-year

change

Originations (millions) $1,495.2 $1,617.2 $1,276.7 (7.5%) 17.1%

Revenue (millions) $132.3 $127.2 $111.3 4.1% 18.9%

Net interest margin (TEB) 2.40% 2.38% 2.09% 2 bps 31 bps

Provisions as % of Gross Loans

(annualized)0.43% 0.70% 0.15% (27) bps 28 bps

Efficiency ratio (TEB) – reported 50.5% 46.7% 55.4% 380 bps (490) bps

Efficiency ratio (TEB) – adjusted1 47.9% 44.4% 51.9% 350 bps (400) bps

Net income (millions) – reported $34.1 $27.7 $31.9 23.1% 7.0%

Net income (millions) – adjusted1 $36.6 $29.9 $34.7 22.7% 5.5%

Earnings per share – reported $0.65 $0.52 $0.53 25.0% 22.6%

Earnings per share – adjusted1 $0.70 $0.56 $0.58 25.0% 20.7%

Return on equity (annualized) – reported 8.9% 6.9% 7.7% 200 bps 120 bps

Return on equity (annualized) – adjusted1 9.5% 7.5% 8.4% 200 bps 110 bps

1 See definition of Adjusted Efficiency Ratio, Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings per Share and Adjusted Return on Shareholders’ Equity under

Non-GAAP Measures in the Company’s 2020 Second Quarter Report.

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Q2 Financial highlights

Q2 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2019Sequential

change

Year-over-year

change

Total loan portfolio (billions) $17.21 $17.12 $16.67 0.5% 3.3%

Loans under administration

(billions)$22.88 $23.04 $22.90 (0.7%) (0.1%)

Assets under administration

(billions)$24.67 $25.07 $24.58 (1.6%) 0.3%

Net non-performing loans as %

of gross loans0.42% 0.36% 0.47% 6 bps (5) bps

CET1 ratio1 18.48% 17.73% 19.49% 75 bps (101) bps

Book value per share $30.11 $29.44 $27.80 2.3% 8.3%

Shares outstanding (millions) 51.8 51.8 59.3 - (7.5)

1CET1 ratio relates to the Company’s operating subsidiary, Home Trust Company

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Summary of adjustments related to Home Trust’s Ignite Program

Resulting from changes in estimated useful life of legacy IT investment and implementation expenses

1 See definition of Adjusted Net Income, Adjusted Earnings per Share, Adjusted Efficiency Ratio and Adjusted

Return on Shareholders’ Equity under Non-GAAP Measures in the Company’s 2020 Second Quarter Report.

Q2 2020 Q1 2020

ReportedAdjustment for

Ignite ProgramAdjusted1 Reported

Adjustment for

Ignite ProgramAdjusted1

Net income (millions) $34.13 $2.52 $36.65 $27.72 $2.16 $29.88

ReportedAdjustment for

Ignite ProgramAdjusted1 Reported

Adjustment for

Ignite ProgramAdjusted1

Earnings per share $0.65 $0.05 $0.70 $0.52 $0.04 $0.56

Efficiency ratio (TEB) 50.5% (2.6%) 47.9% 46.7% (2.3%) 44.4%

Return on equity

(annualized)8.9% 0.6% 9.5% 6.9% 0.6% 7.5%