Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1...

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Q1 Earnings Presentation April 2020

Transcript of Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1...

Page 1: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

Q1 Earnings

Presentation

April 2020

Page 2: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

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General: This presentation and comments associated with it contains

historical information, descriptions of current circumstances and

statements about potential future developments and anticipated financial

results. Readers are cautioned that this presentation is qualified in its

entirety by reference to, and must be read in conjunction with, the

information contained in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd.’s (WFT’s)

management’s discussion and analysis for the annual and interim periods

ended December 31, 2019, (Annual MD&A) and for the interim period

ended March 31, 2020 (Q1 MD&A), and the company’s annual audited

and interim financial statements for such periods available on SEDAR

(www.sedar.com). A person is not entitled to rely on parts of the

information contained in this presentation to the exclusion of others.

Forward-looking Statements: This presentation contains “forward-

looking statements” (including those under the headings Supply

Conditions and Summary) within the meaning of applicable securities

laws. Forward-looking statements, are presented to provide reasonable

guidance to the reader but their accuracy depends on a number of

assumptions and is subject to various risks and uncertainties. In some

cases, forward-looking statements can be identified by the use of forward-

looking terminology such as “plans”, “targets”, “expects” or “does not

expect”, “an opportunity exists”, “outlook”, “prospects”, “strategy”,

“intends”, “believes”, or variations of such words and phrases or state that

certain actions, events or results “may”, “could”, “would”, “might”, “will”,

“will be taken”, “occur” or “be achieved”. In addition, any statements that

refer to expectations, intentions, projections or other characterizations of

future events or circumstances contain forward-looking information.

Statements containing forward-looking information are not historical facts

but instead represent management’s expectations, estimates and

projections regarding future events or circumstances. By their nature,

forward-looking statements involve numerous assumptions, inherent risks

and uncertainties, both general and specific, which contribute to the

possibility that the predictions, forecasts and other forward-looking

statements will not occur. Actual outcomes and results of these

statements will depend on a number of factors including those matters

described under “Risks and Uncertainties”, in our Annual MD&A and in

our Q1 MD&A and may differ materially from those anticipated or

projected. Reference should be made to the other factors discussed in

public filings with securities regulatory authorities.

.

Accordingly, readers should exercise caution in relying upon forward-

looking- statements and WFT undertakes no obligation to publicly

update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether written or

oral, to reflect subsequent events or circumstances except as required

by applicable securities laws.

Non-IFRS Measures: This presentation makes reference to certain

non-IFRS measures, such as EBITDA, Adjusted EBITDA and net debt

to capital ratio. Non-IFRS measures do not have a standardized

meaning prescribed by IFRS and are therefore unlikely to be

comparable to similar measures presented by others. For further

information regarding the use of non-IFRS measures please refer to the

“Non-IFRS Measures” section in the MD&A External Information:

Where this presentation quotes any information or statistics from any

external source, it should not be interpreted that WFT has adopted or

endorsed such information or statistics as being accurate. Some of the

information presented herein is based on or derived from statements by

third parties and has not been independently verified by or on behalf by

WFT, and no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as

to, and no reliance should be placed on, the fairness, accuracy,

completeness or correctness of this information or any other information

or opinions contained herein.

Currency: In this presentation, all amounts are in Canadian dollars,

unless otherwise indicated.

Terminology: References in this presentation to “MMfbm” or “mmfbm”

mean million board feet, “SPF” means spruce-pine-fir and “SYP” means

southern yellow pine. For any other technical terms used in this

presentation, please see the Glossary of Industry Terms found in our

most recent Annual Report.

Page 3: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

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0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

$250

$260

$270

$280

$290

$300

$310

$320

$330

$340

Q117 Q217 Q317 Q417 Q118 Q218 Q318 Q418 Q119 Q219 Q319 Q419 Q120

Expenditures % change

Demand conditions

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

J F M A M J J A S O N D

M S

tart

s

U.S. Housing Starts (not seasonally adjusted)

2018 2019 2020

Seasonally adjusted:

2018: 1,250

2019: 1,298

Leading indicator of Remodeling Activity

$B

4 Q

tr M

ovin

g I

mpro

vem

ents

and R

epairs

4 Q

tr M

ovin

g r

ate

of

Change

Source: US Census Bureau Source: Harvard Joint Centre for Housing Studies

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census Source: PPPC

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

to

nn

es

World Chemical Pulp Shipments

2018 2019 2020

2018: 61.1

2019: 63.5

2020: 9.63 YTD0

100

200

300

400

500

600

J F M A M J J A S O N D

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Exports

2018 2019 2020

2018: 5,967

2019: 4,960

2020: 551 YTD

Page 4: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

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0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2018 2019 Q12020

North America Curtailments Impact

Announced

to date in Q1

Supply conditions

0

20

40

60

80

BC Canada USSouth

US Total NA

Lumber Supply

2018 2019

Down 26%

Down 11%

Down 1%

Down 5%

Up 2%

Source: WWPA, SFPA, COFI Source: Analyst reports, public filings, management estimates

Billion fbmMMfbm

Volatile supply chain expected in short term

Source: Statistics Canada, US Census, FEA

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Q1-18 Q2-18 Q3-18 Q4-18 Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20

MM

fbm

North America Offshore Imports

2018: 1,5482019: 1,465

Page 5: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

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* Adjusted EBITDA is defined as operating earnings plus amortization, equity based compensation, restructuring and impairment charges and export duties.

Consolidated Financial Results

$ Millions

Adjusted EBITDA Q1-20 Q4-19

Lumber $ 106 $ 69

Panels 8 13

Pulp & Paper 11 (1)

Corporate/Other 2 (1)

Total $ 127 $ 80

Adjusted EBITDA

margin

10.06% 7.09%

Q1-20 Q4-19

Sales $ 1,195 $ 1,129

Cost and Expenses 1,182 1,152

Restructure/Impairment - 8

Operating earnings 13 (31)

Finance Expense (16) (13)

Other 12 (2)

Earnings before Tax $ 9 $ (46)

Tax recovery 3 4

Net earnings $ 12 $ (42)

Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment

Page 6: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

66Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation

Improved pricing and fibre costs

$ millions

Page 7: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

77Q1-20 versus Q4-19

$ millions unless

otherwise indicatedQ1 2020 Q4 2019 Change

Lumber Production (MMfbm) 1,501 1,423 78BC operations on full schedule most of the quarter

compared to variable operating schedules in Q4

Lumber Shipments (MMfbm) 1,426 1,385 41Increase SYP shipments, some delays in SPF from rail

blockades

Adjusted EBITDA $127 $80 $47Selling prices, favorable Canadian exchange rate

movements, improved fiber costs

Cash flow from operations ($122) $40 ($162) Seasonal log inventory build consumes working capital

Capital Expenditure $59 $87 ($28)Significant projects underway in prior year, carryover

spend moderating in second half

Net Debt

Net Debt to Capital

$1,325

33%

$1,051

30%

$274

3%

Net debt increased for working capital build, additional

liquidity available, significant financial flexibility and wide

margin of safety

Cumulative duties on deposit

US$$407 $373 $34 Deposits continue at 23.56% until AR1 finalized

Limited impacts of COVID-19 in the quarter

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$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

2017 2018 2019 Q119 Q419 Q120

Available liquidity

Bank lines Cash Additional Facility

Liquidity

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

$900

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Term loan Notes Revolvers

Scheduled maturities

Ample financial flexibility

Cash consists of cash and short-term investments less cheques issued in excess of funds on deposit.

0%

20%

40%

60%

2017 2018 2019 Q119 Q419 Q120

Financial Covenants

Actual Maximum

Additional liquidity levers

• Approximately $125M of income tax refunds pending

• Seasonal log inventory draw down through Q2 and

Q3

• Government payment deferral programs start in Q2

Page 9: Q1 Earnings Presentation Earnings...Improved pricing and lower fibre costs in lumber segment. Q1 Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA Reconciliation 6 Improved pricing and fibre costs $ millions.

99Summary

✓ Fibre costs continue to improve

sequentially

✓ Pulp markets showing signs of

improvement compared to

second half of 2019

✕ COVID-19 impacts late in the

quarter necessitates downtime

across all segments

✕ Uncertain business environment

going forward

✓ Operational excellence on variable

schedules

✓ Preserve and manage liquidity

conservatively, working capital

contraction

✓ Complete Dudley and Opelika

projects

Q1 2020 Recap Balance of Year Focus