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Transcript of PwC 30000 feet Ground Zero to The trends in Enterprise Infrastructure and IT Sivarama Krishnan,...
30000 feet
Ground Zero
to
The trends in Enterprise Infrastructure and IT
Sivarama Krishnan, Executive Director
Slide 2PricewaterhouseCoopers
Agile Management
Architecture
Applications
www.pwc.com/technologyforecast
Data
PwC Quarterly Tech Forecast
Trend 1
Cloud computing will change your infrastructure landscape
Slide 4PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Definition
• Cloud Computing is a style of computing in which dynamically scalable and often virtualized resources are provided as a service over the Internet.
Zeus, 2009
• The Cloud is how the Internet is depicted in network diagrams, also used in telephony for Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) where traffic is switched to balance utilization.
Slide 5PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Benefits
Complexity of built-to-order IT infrastructure burdens business agility and contributes to lack of responsiveness of IT.
The Cloud Computing paradigm shift may be similar to the displacement of electricity generators by electricity grids early in the 20th century.
Cloud Computing promises compelling benefits, including:
• Rapid IT expansion and scalability with few upfront costs• Clearly defined services managed to appropriate service levels (billed
on a utility or subscription basis – avoid capex)• On-demand availability and scalability up and down• Location independence (internal, external, Web, etc.)• Complexity hidden from view
Cloud Computing is a model of how IT should operate as a business!
Slide 6PricewaterhouseCoopers
Service providers own and operate live Cloud Computing systems to serve third parties:
Example: Amazon.com modernized their data centers after the dot-com bubble; New Cloud Computing architecture resulted in significant internal efficiencies; Offer ‘Amazon Web Services’ on a utility computing basis
Cloud Computing—Third Party Platform and Infrastructure Services
Slide 7PricewaterhouseCoopers
Three models have emerged:• Software as a Service (SaaS)--Applications via browser (ex:
Google Apps, SAP and Salesforce)• Platform as a Service (PaaS)--Hosted environment to build
and/or deploy cloud applications (ex: Amazon E2C)• Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)--Virtualization of the data
center using a utility computing model with resources available on demand (internal). Also available for rent (external) (ex: HP Adaptive Infrastructure as a Service, Microsoft Online Service)
Cloud Computing—Categories
SaaS and IaaS are the key Cloud capabilities for 80% of customers.
Slide 8PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Hybrids
A hybrid Cloud environment will likely be typical for most enterprises
This environment consists of multiple internal and/or external providers, creating additional risks and complexities to be considered by organizations and their auditors.
Source: VMware, 2009
Internal Cloud External Cloud
Federation
Slide 9PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Outlook
• Cloud computing will meet prime time in the 2010 timeframe
• Expected to have >30 yrs of momentum
• The biggest opportunity to our clients is to improve IT by making the data center “virtualizable”—that is, make the data center programmable, or fully software-defined (evergreen IT)
• Requires a new way of thinking, new risks, new processes, new skills, and new tools
Slide 10PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Strategy
Companies evaluating a Cloud-computing strategy should consider the practical, operational and legal issues, including:
• Costs to transition from company-hosted servers to the cloud
• Selecting service providers and evaluating ‘lock-in’ implications while service providers have not agreed on industry standards
• Architecture of IT environment (internal vs. external components)
• Security and data access
Slide 11PricewaterhouseCoopers
Cloud Computing—Vendor Assessment
Gartner lists seven security issues to consider when evaluating vendors:
1. Controls over access to and administration of data in the cloud
2. Process for vendors to undergo external audits/security certifications
3. Data location – can the customer control location of the data?
4. Data segregation – encryption at all stages and properly designed/tested?
5. Recovery – disaster recovery plan and time to reconstruct
6. Investigative support – ability of vendor to investigate illegal activity
7. Long-term viability – how will data be returned if vendor goes out of business?
Slide 12PricewaterhouseCoopers
Governance, Security and Privacy
Other Governance, Security and Privacy concerns:
• The “cloud”, by nature, is obscure and common governance frameworks do not exist
• There is a certain level of distrust from customers about how well cloud companies are abiding by the terms of service and securing their sensitive data
• Uncertainty as to how individual company data will be separated and kept private from other customers
• Cloud vendors are perceived as being prime targets for cyber terrorism• Secure architectural models are in their infancy and there are no clear
leaders in best practice• Complexity is present in getting a good handle on control over access and
who will govern standards• Expect difficulty implementing robust auditing and monitoring
Trend 2
Enterprises will leverage unstructured information through Semantic Web
Slide 14PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Definition
Hypertext Markup Language (HTML) Web pages are designed to be read by people, not machines.
The Semantic Web is a vision of computer-readable information. With the first generation of this capability, siloed information can be integrated at a scale not previously possible.
To enable the Semantic Web, humans have to make the context of the information they develop explicit and universal.
Some enterprises like Chevron and M.D. Anderson Cancer Center are already doing some very compelling things with Semantic Web techniques to address the problem of information silos. The silo problem is at the root of poor business intelligence (BI) and poor knowledge management (KM).
Slide 15PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Addresses the Information Gap
Source: PwC 12th Annual Global CEO Survey, 2009
Despite huge investments in BI, data warehousing and KM, information gaps persist.
Slide 16PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Benefits
PricewaterhouseCoopers, 2009
The traditional information analysis tools and methods we have focus on internal, structured data.
Enterprises generally don’t make the best use of most of the data they have access to, tending instead to focus on the internal, structured data generated by core transaction systems. The Semantic Web makes it possible to tap into and integrate external and less structured information with the rest.
Slide 17PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Methods
“We’ve found that when you provide a basis for people to say that this entity, this sort of information relates to this other sort of information, then the people who are involved fill in the gaps. You don’t have to have this huge engineering effort to try to force a shared model between them…. Semantic Web technology…is designed to go from very slim threads and very slim connections, and then have those strengthened over time through human intervention.”
--Uche Ogbuji, Zepheira
Knitting together an information fabric with semantic techniques starts with a few good threads, which you then add to incrementally.
Slide 18PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Case Studies
Interviewee: Uche Ogbuji
Case: Sun Microsystems
Interviewee: Tom Scott
Case: BBC
Interviewee: Lynn Vogel
Case: M. D. Anderson
Interviewee: Frank Chum
Case: Chevron
Case studies from PwC interviewees underscored both the immaturity and the potential of these techniques
Slide 19PricewaterhouseCoopers
Semantic Web—Implications• The rise of a new class of tool vendors within three to five years, now that Semantic
Web standards are in place and application builders are emerging.• A move from centralized to decentralized data models, which implies slow growth for the
guardians of the centralized model (well entrenched data warehousing and BI vendors). • A shift of database and suite vendors’ competitive dynamics: Oracle is well positioned
to benefit from the Semantic Web. Microsoft’s in an okay position. SAP is still in the lab.• A change in application design philosophy: Ordinary applications won’t go away, but the
growth potential favors vendors who understand trends at the data layer and the need for lightweight, distributed applications best.
• Reduced emphasis on traditional data management because the established methods don’t scale well. Semantic Web data methods do scale. IT departments can shift resources to the scalable method.
• Reduction of corporate silos, at the root of what the Semantic Web enables.• A need for entirely rethinking corporate compartmentalization policies, practices and
processes, given the silo reduction capability.• Years for enterprises to navigate the learning curve, which means there’s plenty of
continuing opportunity to advise clients on moving to a Web-scale, data-centric architecture.• A need to treat XBRL and other financial reporting separately, because Semantic Web
methods are still in an early phase, while XBRL is refined and more complete for the purpose it serves.
• A need to harness the power of business units to describe data in a standard way: Sem Web techniques make possible what was previously too time consuming to attempt, but requires business unit involvement.
Trend 3
Internal and external communications will revolutionize with Web 2.0 & social networking
Slide 21PricewaterhouseCoopers
Social Networking—What is It?
Knowledge and insight
• documents
• broadcasts
• Web 1.0
• Webcasts
• blogs & wikis
• mashups
• totally new things
• meetings
• conversations
• brainstorms
Powerpoint, Excel, Word, portals, radio, TV
Ajax, Ruby on Rails, widgets, wikis, blogsites, filters, ranking systems, hack days
face-to-face, phone calls, messaging, paper napkins
Media
Tools &techniques
Timeliness of content
Historical Real time
One tomany
One toone
Many tomany
Slide 22PricewaterhouseCoopers
Social Networking—Phase I
Source: The Guardian, 2008
1997-2006: Some Hits, Mostly Misses 2001-2007: The Rise and Fall of Online Anonymity and Dial-Up
Source: Wikimedia, 2008
Slide 23PricewaterhouseCoopers
Social Networking—Phase II
• Anchor tenants in the online mall
• Twitter on the upswing• Decidedly more mature than
phase I
What This Phase Has
• Aggregative potential—Ease of collecting in one place what’s been posted
• Collaborative potential—Ease for users to edit or change what others have posted in place
• Extensibility potential—Ease of adding other functions from other sources
• Flexible privacy potential—Ease of adding or deleting recipients of messages in mid-thread
What This Phase Lacks
Source: HItwise, 2009
Slide 24PricewaterhouseCoopers
Social Networking Phase III—Google Wave
“Imagine if we designed e-mail today, rather than 40 years ago. What would it look like?”
--Lars Rasmussen, Google Wave’s Lead Developer
Source: Google, 2009
• Blend of wiki-style, or even community scrapbook-style e-mail/IM/blog/collab. editing
• Playback of message edits/changes: Later users added can play back the message evolution piece by piece
• Portability between media types, including photos, video
• Access control specific to group messages in mid-stream
• Simultaneous editing and real-time translation• Interactive games between group members• Wave links instead of URIs (so it's non-Web)
Features
Significance• Breaks apart the old e-mail paradigm, enriching and renewing it• Reduces silos between social media• Taps into open source development at a new level• Establishes a different, secured “Web” owned and operated by Google• Provides an on-ramp for seizing market share from Facebook and MySpace
Slide 25PricewaterhouseCoopers
Social Networking—Implications
• Continuing evolution of networking capabilities, with new social networking sites appearing and older ones growing stale or being forced to reinvent themselves
• Removal of some boundaries between media types and sites, as the open platform model of Google Wave and other new sites emerges
• Increased cross-platform collaboration and a further blurring of the boundaries between companies, between public and private, and between work and personal pursuits
• Enhanced media sharing capabilities, with even more risk of information loss, security policy violation and copyright infringement
• More urgent need for online identity standards and capabilities, given the new boundarylessness and cross-platform capability. One question that will be asked more frequently: Are people who they say they are?
• Emergence of private “Webs,” like closed community sites, but with more of the richness of a public Web environment
Trend 3
3G may have been delayed, but 4G will quickly follow unleashing new platform for enterprise computing
Slide 27PricewaterhouseCoopers
4G—What Is It?
• LTE, or Long-Term Evolution—The upgrade path of choice for most major cellular carriers, including CDMA carriers
• Multicarrier EV-DO and DO Advanced—A path for some CDMA EV-DO carriers
• Mobile WiMax—The chosen alternative for Sprint, Clearwire, and parts of developing world
4th Gen Mobile Broadband
Features• 7Mbps expected average throughput, about
10 times the speed of 3G• Lower latency than 3G• Better roaming possibilities (with LTE)
What will be possible with 4G?• Good mobile video—finally• Better music services over cellular• Some basic video conferencing• Alternative to wireline, Wi-Fi and satellite
broadband service
Sensa Fili Consulting, 2007
Pyramid Research and PwC, 2009
LTE Subscriber Forecast
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Mil
lio
ns
of
Su
bsc
rib
ers
Slide 28PricewaterhouseCoopers
4G—More Device Types Get Connected
Cisco, 2009
Cisco, 2009
Mobile Data Demand by Type
Data Growth Potential per Subscriber per Month
More available cellular bandwidth
More demand for mobile data
More device connection possibilities
Mobile Data Demand by Region
Cisco, 2009
Slide 29PricewaterhouseCoopers
4G—Chinese Mobile Infrastructure Providers Gain Share
1Q09 Mobile Network Equipment Market Share
Ericsson33%
Huawei15%Alcatel-Lucent
14%
Nokia-Siemens12%
ZTE5%
Nortel4%
Other17%
• Huawei and ZTE have capitalized on subscriber and network growth in China over the years
• Nortel’s share dropped by half
• Alcatel-Lucent’s share dropped by 2 percentage points over the previous quarter
• The Nokia-Siemens JV, suffering losses, is looking to buy part of Nortel’s assets
Dell’Oro Group, Forbes, PwC Estimates, 2009
$35.4 billion
Slide 30PricewaterhouseCoopers
4G—Speculations about the Next iPhone
A new Apple patent application this month alludes to a pico projector and media sharing. But no figures in the patent show the projector. Here are some of the interface drawings in the filing:
Apple patent application as reported by Slashgear, 2009
Slide 31PricewaterhouseCoopers
4G—Implications
• Growing strength of Asian hardware OEMs, bolstered by continued strong subscriber growth, favored vendor status locally and government subsidies
• Instability among North American and European equipment providers and some more consolidation
• Slow upgrade to 4G in the US by contrast with China, Korea and Northern Europe• A rich new platform environment, implying a proliferation of new kinds of handhelds
and lots of opportunity for developers• Increased competition in the residential and SOHO broadband market, with some
opting for cellular wireless over wireline• Further reduced emphasis on metro Wi-Fi, as cellular improves enough to be
classified as true broadband• More pressure on IT departments to allow the iPhone and other smart handhelds• Increased proliferation of user-generated video and greater privacy implications as
handhelds become life recording devices• Reinforcement of the strongest incumbent wireless carriers, by contrast with
those who do not have the capital to upgrade losing ground
© 2009 PricewaterhouseCoopers. All rights reserved. “PricewaterhouseCoopers” refers to the network of member firms of PricewaterhouseCoopers International Limited, each of which is a separate and independent legal entity.