PUTTING METABOLIC PATTERNS OF SOCIETY WITHIN A LARGER PERSPECTIVE … · 2019. 12. 13. · Money as...
Transcript of PUTTING METABOLIC PATTERNS OF SOCIETY WITHIN A LARGER PERSPECTIVE … · 2019. 12. 13. · Money as...
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PUTTING METABOLIC PATTERNS OF
SOCIETY WITHIN A LARGER
PERSPECTIVE
Integrating Energy, Ecology and Economics
Mark T. Brown
Center for Environmental Policy
University of Florida
FL, USA
Sergio Ulgiati
Department of Sciences for the Environment
Parthenope University of Napoli
Italy
markusFASresearch
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Where Are We?
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Where Are We?
The recent global economic meltdown has reinforced our
understanding of the effects of decoupling monetary growth and
resources.
Artificial “wealth” (derivatives, futures, subprime mortgages, etc)
not supported by a resource basis is not sustainable.
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Where Are We?
Decoupling money and
resources
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Money as Value• The amount of money that we
pay for some product is an indication of how much we valuethat product, economists say
• If we buy an expensive car, then it must have great value to us
I love my car!
BUT…the money we pay for something is determined by:
Scarcity
Human labor costs
Perception
Money does not reflect the work of the environment
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• The wind that disperses the smoke from factories
• The forest that builds soil to grow trees for timber
• The wetland that cleans the rainwater runoff
• The potential energy in streams
•etc
We cannot use money to value the ecosystem services that nature provides for free:
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Energy as value
Energy has been proposed
as a measure of value.
But:
• one joule of stream energy
• one joule of nuclear electricity
• one joule of sunlight
• one joule of jet fuel
• one joule of heat by burning a log
• one joule of a speech of US President Obama
• one joule of this ppt
are all different in both production cost (upstream) and ability to generate work (downstream)
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Wealth & Cost
Willingness to pay
Rain
Sun
Environmental cost
to produce wealth
Emergy evaluation Economic evaluation
Wealth
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Available Supply as value
• Environmental driving forces (sunlight, deep heat, and gravitational potential) support all systems and processes on Earth…
• …to generate completely different products: water, minerals, biodiversity, cities, information…
…highest
‘quality’
objects
It took all
of this, to
get the…
Original ‘sources’
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Barnes, 2007. Capitalism 3.0
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Emergy: available energy of one form previously required directly
or indirectly to make a product or a service. It is measured as Joule
of one form (form energy joules, or form equivalent joules).
Solar emergy:
Solar available energy required
directly and indirectly to make a
product or a service. It is
measured as seJ (solar energy
joules, or solar equivalent joules)
Defining Emergy
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Emergy = the value of resources in common units of solar equivalent
energy (solar emjoules)
Emergy…
Ultimately, our
wealth depends
on three sources
of emergy…the
sun, tidal
momentum, and
deep heat
Price = money
equivalent
Energy = oil
equivalent
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Global annual flows Supporting the Geobiosphere….
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Global Emergy Storages
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1. Where are we…A Review and Reflection
2. Six Caveats of Sustainability
3. The Pulsing Paradigm and a Prosperous
Way Down
Organization…
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Currently 1/4 of the total emergy driving the geobioshpere is
renewable, and the remaining 3/4’s is non-renewable
Where Are We?
The Geobiosphere…
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The declining share of
“renewability”….
The Geobiosphere…Where Are We?
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Real wealth = energy & resource throughput
(measured in units of Emergy)
Emergy- is the
throughput of
resources driving the
economy
GWP - Gross World
Product - is driven by
energy and resource
use.
Where Are We?
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Emergy per unit GDP
• The emergy-to-money ratio is calculated
by dividing the total emergy supporting a
national economy (seJ) by its GDP
(Gross Domestic Product, $).
• It indicates the amount of resources
needed to generate one unit of GDP or,
vice versa, the amount of resources that
one unit of currency can purchase in a
given country.
Emergy to money
ratio
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Emergy per person
On average, we are
worse off today than
we were in 1950.
Where Are We?
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Where Are We?
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2. Six Caveats for Sustainability
o Resources are the real wealth of nations
o Quality matters
o The false promise of renewables
o The environment is a limited resource.
o Information is not unlimited
o A systems view is mandatory
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Contrary to common beliefs, monetary measures do not
reflect the wealth of nations….
Resources Are Real Wealth…
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Resources Are Real Wealth…
…they only measure the activities of humans
manipulating resources, energy, and information.
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Resources Are Real Wealth…
A nation’s wealth is its resources.
Relying on monetary principles only, dismisses this crucial information
that is necessary for sound economic policy.
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Not all energy is equivalent…each form of energy
has very different capacity to do work.
Quality Matters…
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Solar emjoules per
Joule
(sej/J)
Sunlight 1
Plant production 6,700
Wood 36,000
Coal 67,000
Oil 90,000
Electricity 300,000
Solar transformities
It requires 300,000
units of sunlight to
make 1 unit of
electricity
Not all resources are equivalent…
Quality Matters…
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Faster is not always better…
o Greatest net yields
are associated with
slow growing biomass
resources
(Figure refers to a
forest growth)
o It took millions years
to make fossil fuels.
Cycle Time & Net Energy…Quality Matters…
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False Promises…
Renewable energy sources, up to now, have lower net emergy yields than fossil
fuels and thus provide false promises to those who are looking
for “business as usual” at the end of cheap oil.
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Environment Is Limited…
The ability of the environment to support human
society is limited in both source and sink services
Information is not unlimited
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MTB 02/21/06
Using current estimates of water requirements for ethanol from sugarcane…
FL Transportation energy = 9.5 E17 J/yr
FL water consumption = 11.3 E 12 l/yr
Water required for ethanol from sugarcane = 30t/net GJ = 3 E4 l/1 E9 J
9.5 E 17 J/yr * 3E4 l = 2.9 E 13 liters of water
1.0 E9 J/ha
Renewable Ethanol…? WATER
…almost 2.5 times current total water consumption in Florida!!
Quantitative Myth Busting…
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MTB 02/21/06
Using current Florida sugarcane production per hectare (70 GJ/ha)
FL gasoline consumption = 9.49 E 17 J/yr
9.49 E 17 J/yr = 1.35 E 7 ha of land
70 E9 J/ha
Florida LAND Area = 1.4 E7 ha
Renewable Ethanol…? LAND
Quantitative Myth Busting…
Nearly the entire State!…
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MTB 04/08/05
Net Energy…
The net energy
return of
biomass is
barely 1.1 to 1
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Information Is Not Umlimited…
Information is a key ingredient in all productive
processes and contrary to popular belief, the
creativity of humans is not without resource
costs (e.g.: consider research and education).
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A Systems View Is Mandatory…
Radical changes are necessary for the transition to a more
sustainable future with lower availability of resources.
This cannot be done without a
systemic understanding of the
place of humans and their
economy within the wider
economy of the biosphere.
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Where Are We?
The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB, 2009)
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3. A Prosperous Way Down.
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The pulsing paradigm
• (1) growth on abundant available resources: increase ofpopulation, structure, and assets, low-efficiency, high-competition;
• (2) climax and transition: the system reaches the maximum sizeallowed by available resources, increases efficiency, developscollaborative patterns, and prepares for descent by storing information;
• (3) descent: less resources available, decrease of population andassets, increased recycling, transmission of information in a way thatminimizes losses;
• (4) low-energy restoration: no-growth, consumption smaller thanaccumulation, storage of resources for a new cycle ahead.
• Sustainability is not achieved once for ever.
• Systems follow oscillating patterns.
• This calls for different sustainability strategies
(Odum & Odum, 2001)
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Cycles of growth and descent
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What’s Next… ?
The problem is not just resource availability
nor finding another cheap source of energy.
The problem is BUSINESS AS USUAL.
Our fascination and addiction with continued
growth may have unbelievable
consequences in the long run.
Our focus must turn to living within the
planet’s carrying capacity.
The real issue is:
do you want to be part of the
solution
or continue to be the problem?
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Questions?
ThankYou…