Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART...

Putting Immigration Reform To The TestPutting Immigration Reform To The Test

Key findings from survey conducted April 2010for

HARTRESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states

(405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010

Putting Immigration Reform to the Test – April 2010 – Hart Research 2

Key Survey Findings ► The survey tested public support for a comprehensive

immigration reform plan in four moderate-conservative states: Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio.

► The plan was described as an Obama/Democratic plan and subjected to very strong Republican criticisms throughout the survey.

► After equal exposure to criticisms and Democratic responses, voters in these states support reform by a solid 14-point margin, with clear majority support in Colorado, Missouri, and Ohio, while Arkansas voters are evenly divided.

► In every state, confidence in the Democrats to handle the immigration issue grows considerably after voters hear the plan and subsequent debate.


Survey Conducted On Challenging Political Terrain

37%42% 42%

49%

Preferred Outcome for 2010 Congressional Elections

Barack Obama’s Job Approval

All voters

Democrat-controlled CongressRepublican-controlled Congress

WantDemo-crats tocontrol

29%

40%

34%

43%

WantRepub-licans tocontrol

47%

38%

46%

38%

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

All voters

Approve Disapprove

Approve

34%

43%

40%

50%

Dis-approve

57%

46%

52%

42%

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

On average, these states went for McCain by 50% to 49% in 2008.


Immigration Is Good For America

54%

34%

51%

39%

54%

33%

54%

36%

56%

30%

Overall View of Immigration

All voters

Immigration is a GOOD thing for this country todayImmigration is a BAD thing for this country today

Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio


Recession Has Not Changed Public View Of Immigration

Preferred Level of Immigration

11%

36%

11%

42%

Increase

Keep present

level

Decrease

Not sure

45%

16%

35%

4%

Voters nationwideJune 2007


Confidence In Parties To Handle Immigration

24%

36%40%

21%

41%38%

23%

32%

45%

22%

42%

36%

28%29%

43%

Which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration?

All voters Arkansas Colorado Missouri Ohio

Democrats Republicans Both good/neither good/not sure

-12 -20 -9 -20 -1


Strong Support For Obama/Democratic Immigration Reform Plan

Approve

67%

Plan Supported by Obama, Most Democrats, Some Republicans

24%

Disapprove

Description of Main Elements:

1. Strengthens border security

2. Requires employers to ensure all employees legal; companies that employ illegal immigrants face steep fines and penalties

3. Illegal immigrants already in the U.S. required to register for legal status, learn English, pay taxes, or face deportation

4. Establishes process to increase legal immigration into the U.S. only when employers are unable to fill job positions with citizens/legal residents

All Voters

Strongly31%

Strongly13%

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

66%

69%

69%

67%

Approve


Reaction To Individual Components

30%

62%

30%

63%

11%

86%

Approve Disapprove

Require everyone to have high-tech, fraud-proof Social Security card that can’t be counterfeited; employers must check cards to ensure they hire only legal workers

Speed up process for giving green cards to people in other countries who have applied to come and work legally in the United States

Tie the flow of legal immigration to economy: more immigrants allowed in legally when economic need; fewer immigrants allowed in when unemployment high

36% feel positive and 38% feel negative about “increasing legal immigration.”


Attack #1: Republicans Oppose This “Amnesty” Plan

41%46% 44%

41% 41%45% 46% 47%

34%

49%

Most Republicans in Congress oppose this immigration plan and say it is really just an amnesty plan for illegal immigrants who broke the law.

All voters

This is an unfair political attackThis is a fair criticism



Strong Republican Criticism Of Plan Concerns 4 in 10 Voters

Very/fairlyconvincing

41%

All Voters

Very convincing

27%

REPUBLICANS say this plan is really just another amnesty proposal that gives a slap on the wrist to people who have been breaking our laws for years. It rewards people who came into the country illegally by giving them citizen-ship and taxpayer-funded benefits, like the new Obama health care plan. It allows millions of illegal workers to compete with American citizens for hard-to-find jobs when 15 million of our citizens are unemployed. And it opens the floodgates to millions more coming in, because the 12 million illegal immigrants who receive amnesty will then bring in their family members still living overseas.


But Democratic Message Is RatedMore Convincing

56%

41%

All Voters

GOP Attack #1

Very convincing

32%

DEMOCRATS say they are offering a tough, fair, and practical plan to get the broken immigration system under control. We must secure our borders and crack down on employers that hire illegal immigrants to drive down wages. It is unacceptable to have 12 million people in our country who are outside the system. We must require illegal immigrants to register for legal status, pay their taxes, learn English, and pass criminal background checks to remain in the country and work toward citizenship. Those who have a criminal record or refuse to register should be deported.

Very/fairly convincingDem Message

Very convincing

27%


Voters Agree More With Democratic Position

37%

49%

All voters

Repub-lican

attack

Demo-cratic

message

Which do you agree with more: GOP Attack or Democratic Message?

Democratic Message – GOP Attack

ArkansasColoradoMissouriOhio

Preferred Majority in

Congress: Democrats Republicans No preference

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

LiberalsModeratesConservatives

-2+17+11+23

+70-45+26

+73+9

-50

+64+39-39

+12


Attack #2: Border Security First

40%

51%46% 45%

39%

52%

39%

56%

34%

54%

All voters

Agree more with Republican statement


Agree more with Democratic statement

REPUBLICANS say a secure border is essential for our national security, so before we do anything else we must secure our borders. Only after the border is sealed should we begin taking steps to deal with the illegal immigrants already here.

DEMOCRATS say strengthening border security is essential, and our plan does that, but that's only part of the solution. Fixing our broken immigration system also means cracking down on illegal hiring and requiring illegal immigrants to become legal taxpayers.

.

+11 -1+13

+17 +20


Attack #3: Amnesty By Another Name

39%

52%

45% 46%

37%

54%

42%

55%

32%

55%

All voters




REPUBLICANS say this is just am-nesty with a new name. The Demo-crats claim they are being tough on immigration, but their plan rewards millions of illegal immigrants who broke the law, at the expense of others who waited in their home country and played by the rules.

DEMOCRATS say this is not am-nesty. Our plan will require those here illegally to pay a fine and taxes, learn English, and register to become legal. Anyone who fails a criminal background check or refus-es to register will be sent home.

+13 +1 +17+13 +23


45%48%

53%

41% 41%

53%48% 46%

37%

52%+3 -12 +12 +15-2

Attack #4: Now Is Not The Time

All voters




REPUBLICANS say with 15 million Americans out of work, now is not the time to increase immigration and make it easier for illegal immigrants to stay here. We should deport illegal immigrants because they're taking our jobs, not reward them with amnesty.

DEMOCRATS say America should decide who gets to live in our country, but politicians need to be straight with the American people about the 12 million illegal immi-grants already here. Our plan will turn those willing to work hard and play by the rules into taxpayers, so they pay their fair share of taxes.


Attack #5: Will Cost Taxpayers Billions

43%47% 46% 45%

37%

50% 50%

43%39%

49%

All voters




REPUBLICANS say this plan is going to cost American taxpayers billions of dollars and further increase the budget deficit. Once immigrants receive amnesty, they will be eligible for even more taxpayer-funded services, like the Obama health care plan. And millions of new immigrants will put even more pressure on schools, hospitals, and other public services.DEMOCRATS say our immigration reform plan will require immigrants and their employers to pay their full and fair share of taxes, which will result in billions in new revenues and reduce the deficit. Every day we delay requiring illegal immi-grants to get legal and pay taxes is another day the American taxpayer picks up the tab.

+4 -1+13

+10-7


Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate

22%25% 19% 29% 26% 26%

21%25% 23% 21%

Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal

All voters


Strongly

Strongly

Somewhat

Somewhat

APPROVE

DISAPPROVE

52%

38%

56%

36%

57%

30%

53%

42%43% 43%

+14+20 +11

+27


Bottom Line: Voters Favor Plan By 14-point Margin After Debate

Final Support for Immigration Reform Proposal, Among Key Subgroups

All voters

DemocratsIndependentsRepublicans

Preferred Majority in Congress Democrats Republicans No preference

LiberalsModeratesConservatives

Approve

52%

86%45%22%

86%24%50%

82%66%27%

Disapprove

38%

8%39%68%

8%66%33%

13%24%62%

Differential

+14

+78 +6 -46

+78 -42+17

+69+42 -35


Democrats Improve Position On Immigration In Every State

Which party would do a better job handling illegal immigration?

All voters

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

Demo-crats

38%

31%

40%

41%

41%

Repub-licans

34%

36%

31%

39%

27%

Demadvan-

tage

+4

-5

+9

+2

+14

Final Reading

Demo-crats

24%

21%

23%

22%

28%

Repub-licans

36%

41%

32%

42%

29%

Demadvan-

tage

-12

-20

-11

-20

-1

Initial Reading


Message and Language Findings


Voters’ Goals For Immigration

32%

47%

37%

57%

55%

Very positive reaction to this phrase Somewhat positive reaction

Fixing our broken immigration system

Cracking down on employers who hire

illegal immigrants

Immigration reform

Restoring the rule of law

Comprehensive immigration reform

80%

76%

64%

61%

58%


Dealing With Illegal Immigrants

41%

7%

39%

12%

22%

24%

15%

36%

12%

49%

Very positive reaction to this phrase Somewhat positive reaction Very negative reaction to this phrase Somewhat negative reaction

Requiring illegal immigrants to become legal

Deporting illegal immigrants

Providing path to citizenship for illegal

immigrants

Legalizing illegal immigrants

Amnesty for illegal immigrants

70%

17%

54%

50%

32%

55%

57%

29%

27%

21%


Tough Approach Requiring Immigrants To Become Legal Beats Conservative Agenda

52%

43% 41%

54%

All voters

Require immigrants who are here illegally to become legal, learn English, and pay taxes, & deport immigrants who refuse to become legal

Identify illegal immigrants, require them to return to their home country, and allow them to apply to reenter the U.S. legally

Requiresteps to

legal/deport ifrefuse

47%

53%

55%

53%

Requirereturn to

homecountry/reapply

49%

40%

45%

39%

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

All voters

Arkansas

Colorado

Missouri

Ohio

Require immigrants who are here illegally to become legal, learn English, and pay taxes

Requiresteps to

legal

40%

47%

37%

42%

Requirereturn to

homecountry/reapply

57%

47%

61%

50%


Biggest Concerns About Illegal Immigration

14%

15%

18%

18%

35%

49%Immigrants’ receiving free taxpayer-funded

services, like health care

Immigrants’ not paying taxes

Takes jobs from Americans,

lowers wagesToo many immigrants

today are not learning EnglishCausing crime

problems in many communities

Weakens our security against terrorism

All voters

Selected One/Two Biggest Concerns


Biggest Concern About Plan: Use Of Taxpayer-Funded Services

20%

24%

36%

It will cost billions of dollars when more immigrants get taxpayer-funded services

It rewards law-breaking by giving amnesty to those who came here illegally

It opens the door to millions more immigrants when jobs are already scarce

Biggest Concern about Immigration Reform Plan


Required Legal Status Is Plan’s Strongest Provision, Not A Vulnerability

15%

21%

51%

Most Convincing Reason to Support Immigration Reform Plan

Immigrants will be required to get legal and pay their fair share of taxes

It cracks down on employers who hire illegal immigrants

It improves border security

Putting Immigration Reform To The TestPutting Immigration Reform To The Test

Key findings from survey conducted April 2010for

HARTRESEARCHA S S O T E SC I A

Telephone survey among 1,608 voters in four key states

(405 AR, 401 CO, 401 MO, 401 OH), Conducted April 14 – 18, 2010

Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART...

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Transcript of Putting Immigration Reform To The Test Key findings from survey conducted April 2010 for HART...