Putin Hits Tipping Point as UkraineTightens Rebel NooseBy Henry Meyer and Stepan Kravchenko Aug 6, 2014 11:23 AM ET 1 Comment Email Print

As the military endgame in Ukraine

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/ukraine/)

approaches, President Vladimir Putin

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/vladimir-

putin/) must decide just how far he’s

prepared to go to defend the pro-Russian

insurgency.

His options range from an invasion under the

guise of a peacekeeping mission to

abandoning the rebels in order to avoid

further sanctions from the U.S. and the

European Union, said politicians, advisers and

analysts from Moscow to the U.S.

With Ukrainian forces closing in on the

remaining separatist strongholds in the

eastern part of the country, military analysts say the revolt sparked by Putin’s annexation of

Crimea in March is destined to fail without a sharp increase in aid from Russia

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/russia/). That means Putin must now decide whether to

double down and risk further international isolation, which seems likely, according to Olga

Kryshtanovskaya (http://topics.bloomberg.com/olga-kryshtanovskaya/), a sociologist

studying the country’s elite at the Russian Academy of Sciences.

“Putin has a very difficult choice in front of him,” Kryshtanovskaya said by phone from Moscow.

“He has to protect his position in Russia. He has to show that he’s successfully pursuing his goals.

He can’t afford to look like a loser in the eyes of the people.”

Putin has made restoring Russia’s influence in the world the hallmark of his presidency and his

Ukrainian gambit has sent his domestic popularity to near-record levels. That has come at a cost.

Companies from OAO Rosneft, the world’s largest publicly traded oil company by output, to OAO

Sberbank, the largest lender in eastern Europe (http://topics.bloomberg.com/europe/),

(/photo/russian-president-vladimir-putin-/-i6fdCAH0nXWk.html)

Photographer: Alexey Druzhinin/Ria Novosti/AFP via Getty

Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin has made restoring

Russia’s influence in the world the... Read More

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have been hit with sanctions, while the $2 trillion economy is on the brink of recession.

Government bonds (http://topics.bloomberg.com/government-bonds/) have fallen for

nine of the past 10 days, while the Micex stock index has declined 10 percent in a month.

Urban Warfare

Ukrainian forces say they’ve clawed back more than half of the area seized by the rebels since

they ramped up attacks last month and intensified operations after the downing of a Malaysian

passenger jet (http://topics.bloomberg.com/passenger-jet/) over insurgent territory.

Russia has responded by amassing thousands of troops and war materiel on the frontier and

shelling Ukrainian military positions from its side of the border, according to U.S. and NATO

officials.

With the bulk of what Ukraine estimates to be 15,000 separatists now mainly confined to the

cities of Luhansk and Donetsk, they’ll need Russian manpower, weaponry and ammunition to

carry on, according to Anton Lavrov, an independent military analyst in Moscow.

“A victory for the rebels is only possible if Russia puts boots on the ground,” Lavrov said by phone.

‘Hybrid War’

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned of just that today, saying the risk of direct intervention

by Russia is growing. His foreign minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, said yesterday that any Russian

incursion would be presented as a peacekeeping operation. On the same day, Russia’s Foreign

Ministry called for humanitarian assistance to avert a “catastrophe” in the mainly Russian-

speaking eastern regions.

Even without sending troops, though, Russia can keep the rebellion alive for a few more few

months through ammunition shipments now that the militants have moved into the cities, where it’s

harder to dislodge them, according to Lavrov.

“Ukrainian troops now have to learn how to fight in urban areas and that means lots of casualties,”

said Lavrov, the independent military analyst. “The cities can be taken by infantry only -- artillery

and tanks are almost useless there. That’s the weak point of Ukraine’s army, it lacks a trained

infantry, while the rebels have lots of experienced fighters.”

Putin has so far been able to deny controlling the separatists by pursuing a “hybrid war” that his

predecessors have practiced on the fringes of the czarist and Soviet empires for hundreds of

years, according to James Sherr, an associate fellow at London

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/london/)’s Royal Institute of International Affairs.

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This model relies on “informal networks” of operatives and fighters and aims to “erase the frontier

between civil and interstate conflict,” Sherr said in a research note. “Its constituent parts are not

only serving officers of Spetsnaz units and the Federal Security Service, but retired servicemen

and deserters, the private security forces of oligarchs, Cossacks, Chechen fighters, adventurers

and criminals.”

Putin’s spokesman, Dmitry Peskov (http://topics.bloomberg.com/dmitry-peskov/),

declined to comment on Russia’s policy in Ukraine.

President Barack Obama (http://topics.bloomberg.com/barack-obama/)’s administration

has threatened to broaden sanctions to include the entire financial and energy industries if Putin

doesn’t alter that policy and help end a war that’s killed more than 1,300 people and displaced

hundreds of thousands more.

‘Decisive’ Weeks

“The next couple of weeks are going to be very decisive,” said Chris Weafer

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/chris-weafer/), a founder of Macro Advisory in Moscow. “The

Kremlin may overtly increase support for the separatists, which will then bring more sanctions and

have an immediate and serious impact on the economy.”

Putin said this week that Russia is preparing its own penalties to retaliate against the U.S. and the

EU, without being specific. One measure being considered is curbing or outright banning flights

over Siberia by European carriers bound for Asia (http://topics.bloomberg.com/asia/), the

Moscow-based Vedomosti newspaper reported, citing people familiar with the matter it didn’t

identify.

“Political instruments of pressure on the economy are unacceptable, they contradict all norms and

rules,” Putin said yesterday during a meeting with Alexey Gordeev, the governor of the Voronezh

region near Ukraine. Any retaliation “must be done extremely carefully to support producers and

avoid harming consumers.”

Troop Buildup

Including in Crimea, Russia has 45,000 soldiers, 160 tanks and as many as 1,360 armored

vehicles on the border, according to Andriy Lysenko, a Ukrainian military spokesman. Russia also

has 192 warplanes and 137 military helicopters, as well as artillery systems and multiple rocket

launchers, Lysenko said.

Russia has supplied the rebels with battle tanks, armored personnel carriers, infantry fighting

vehicles, rocket-propelled grenades and hand-held air defense systems, according to IHS Jane’s.

Ukraine and the U.S. say the separatists also acquired Buk air-defense systems which they used

to shoot down Malaysian Air Flight MH17 from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/kuala-lumpur/) on July 17, killing all 298 people on board.

The rebels deny downing the plane and blame the Ukrainian military.

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“The rebels have a lot of weapons, but they need more because the numbers are no longer

sufficient to face the Ukrainian military,” said Konrad Muzyka, a military analyst at IHS Jane’s in

Gdansk, Poland (http://topics.bloomberg.com/poland/).

‘Victory’ Assured

Ukrainian Defense Minister Valeriy Geletey said more than 65 towns and villages in the Donetsk

and Luhansk regions have been retaken in the past month in a counteroffensive that won’t stop

until the rebellion is stamped out.

“Our forces are in an offensive phase,” Geletey said. “I am sure, 100 percent, just like every

person in the Ukrainian armed forces, there will be victory, and very soon.”

Still, Geletey said it won’t be easy to recapture Donetsk and Luhansk, especially when Russia is

“doing everything it can to provoke us.”

About half of Luhansk’s 465,000 inhabitants have already fled, according to the city council,

which said the remaining 250,000 people are unable or unwilling to leave. All told, about 3.9

million of Ukraine’s 46 million people live in areas directly affected by the fighting, including

Donetsk, which had a population of 1 million before the war, according to the United Nations

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/united-nations/). Russia estimates 600,000 Ukrainians from

the southeastern part of the country are now in Russia.

Putin’s ‘Character’

Putin, whose approval ratings have soared to more than 85 percent since the Crimea annexation,

will face a public outcry if he doesn’t defend Donetsk and Luhansk, said Sergei Markov

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/sergei-markov/), a political analyst who consults the Kremlin

staff. As a result, the president and his inner circle have decided to stand by the rebels regardless

of the consequences, Markov said.

“Any sign of compromise or restraint on the part of Russia is pointless because they will condemn

us in any case,” Markov said by phone from Moscow. “It’s clear the U.S. and the EU don’t want a

peaceful solution in Ukraine and are counting on a military victory by Kiev.”

Kryshtanovskaya, the sociologist, said Putin could quietly abandon the rebels and pursue other

ways of maintaining influence in Ukraine, such as by extending a cutoff of natural gas flows into

the winter, but he seems “absolutely resolute” on staying the course.

“It’s in his character,” Kryshtanovskaya said. “The more pressure on him, the more confident he is

that he’s doing the right thing.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Stepan Kravchenko in Moscow at

skravchenko@bloomberg.net (mailto:skravchenko@bloomberg.net); Henry Meyer

(http://topics.bloomberg.com/henry-meyer/) in Moscow at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net

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• Reply •

Thetruth • 10 minutes ago

In yesterday's news...the Inconvenient Truth re: US criminal responsibility in Ukraine: "AP

Reveals Obama Secret Regime Change Ops in Cuba" via fake aid / humanitarian workers

whose sole purpose was to foment regime change. The sordid details of the likely US

blueprint in Ukraine. Read it and weep: http://bigstory.ap.org/article...

The Dutch should instigate an MH17 war crimes hearing in the Hague, presenting this

Obama Cuba regime change operation as the likely blueprint for what transpired in

Ukraine. Demand full disclosure in an international court of law.

If we are proven to have instigated the Ukraine coup as we are trying to do in Cuba, our

nation and our leader are guilty of war crimes against the MH17 passengers and the

thousands of innocent lives lost in Ukraine.

Enough of the naive, ignorant Russia bashing.

• Reply • One other person is typing…

soldier49 • 16 minutes ago

Dear Mr. Putin kill this Kiew Garbage!!! America loves you.

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