Purpose of TDR Market Analysis To determine whether and where there is

demand for development over and above what’s permitted by baseline

zoning How that demand can be harnessed to

conserve landWhile providing an economic incentive for

desired development

Potential Receiving Areas Analyzed Bayview Ridge Urban Growth AreaCity of BurlingtonRural Upzones

Bayview Ridge Urban Growth AreaBonus units of residential density in BR-R

(from 4 to 6du/a) Rezones from BR-Urban Reserve to BR-

ResidentialIndustrial Development

City of Burlington Additional residential development in

Commercial/Mixed Use zonesOpportunities for additional Commercial

intensity

Rural UpzonesCPAs/Rezones resulting in additional

residential development potentialFor example: from Rural Reserve (1 du/10

acres) to Rural Intermediate (1 du/2.5 acres, or 4 du/10 acres)

Preliminary conclusions In short-term (1-5 years), development not

likely to generate significant number of TDR transactions.

Demand down due to Great Recession Significant residential zoning exists in

Burlington and Bayview Ridge UGA

Nearest opportunities The nearest-term TDR market opportunities

may be for additional units of residential density in: The Bayview Ridge Residential (BR-R) zone, and Certain Mixed Use (Commercial/Residential)

zones in Burlington.

Medium to long-term In the medium to long-term (5 – 20 years),

consistent with the County’s and Burlington’s GMA planning horizons, more market potential will appear.

Medium to long-term As existing capacity in the BR-R zone and

Burlington Mixed Use Zones is used up, And demand emerges to rezone additional

land to or intensity those zones Skagit County and Burlington could require

TDR purchase for future rezones or intensification

Rural upzones Few Rural Upzone proposals are

considered/approved by County each year But, there may be significant TDR purchasing

power associated with upzones which create high-value rural lots.

This is another potential opportunity for a TDR purchase requirement.

Bayview Ridge IndustrialGiven the information currently available,

there does not appear to be a ready opportunity to link TDR to Industrial development at Bayview Ridge

Burlington Commercial May be TDR opportunity in Burlington if city

is willing to consider a Floor to Area Ratio (FAR) limit on commercial intensity

Base FAR limit could be exceeded with a TDR purchase

Final phase of market analysis Will draw on preliminary findings Focus analysis on those areas and issues

most useful in determining TDR feasibility and implementation in Skagit County

More precise data on: Developer ability-to-pay for TDR in receiving

areas Estimated value of residential development

rights in various potential sending site zones, and

Recommended exchange ratios to make TDR transactions viable in the marketplace.

Transactions mechanisms Recommendations on what type of

“transaction mechanisms” most viable in Skagit County given market conditions and desire to complement Farmland Legacy Program:Simple buyer-sellerTDR bankDensity credit fees

Bonus densities at Bayview Ridge Final phase of market analysis will provide

essential market data for implementing bonus density provisions in BVR subarea plan and PUD ordinance